EM Insight

Standard Chartered sets a target ENA at $2, with USDe rising to $40B by the end of 2028
Standard Chartered has begun tracking Ethena, forecasting that USDe supply will grow from about $4.9B to $40B by the end of 2028. The bank aims for an ENA price of $0.42 by the end of 2026, $1.10 by the end of 2027, and $2 by the end of 2028. The $2 milestone is roughly 7 times higher than the reference price of $0.28 in the report.
The growth thesis is based on Ethena expanding its yield-generating supply. As profits from basis trading in the crypto market decline, the protocol is shifting more toward DeFi lending, tokenized real-world assets, and strategies related to equities and commodities. Standard Chartered believes USDe could grow slightly faster than the entire stablecoin market.
ENA is also expected to benefit from a mechanism that uses protocol revenue to buy back tokens when USDe reaches certain supply milestones. According to the bank’s estimates, if USDe reaches $40B and the ENA price stays unchanged, the annual buyback size could be equivalent to about 23% of ENA’s circulating market cap. However, for this scenario to materialize, Ethena must restore USDe supply and demonstrate that demand for yield-bearing stablecoins continues to rise; Standard Chartered sees this as the key risk to its forecast.
Ethena’s story is therefore shifting from a “basis trade generates yield” narrative to a broader model: stablecoins as the liquidity core, tokenized assets expanding yield sources, and buybacks creating demand for ENA. The $2 forecast is a conditional scenario dependent on multiple operational assumptions, not a guaranteed outcome.

🔥Plan to Legalize a Bitcoin Reserve Fund — Trump’s Strategy Just Took a Major Step Forward

🔴Yesterday, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee approved H.R. 8957 with a vote of 28-21. For the first time, a BTC reserve bill surpassed the committee level.

🔴Key provisions:
- The Treasury has 180 days to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
- All federally held BTC must be transferred into the fund and locked for 20 years
- Mandatory inventory within 60 days, independent audits, and an annual Proof of Reserve
- No authority to purchase more; only “research”

🔴Bryan Steil’s substitute amendment removed mechanisms using Fed resources, gold, and tariffs to buy BTC. Proof of Reserve was reduced from quarterly to annually. Maxine Waters’ amendment banning officials from holding interests in digital assets was also rejected—clearly, there are many supporters of Bitcoin in the U.S. Congress.

🔴Currently, the U.S. Government holds ~324K BTC (~$24.7B). This is a law to manage seized assets and does not create new demand, but the positive point is that it will lock up the amount held by the U.S. Government: $BTC , for at least 20 years.

Tether steps into private credit

Tether and Fasanara Capital established StableFund, an open-ended private credit fund, with seed capital of $400M from both sides, aiming to raise an additional $3B from institutions. Note: $3B is a target, not committed capital.
Fasanara manages more than $6B, serves as the investment manager, and deploys funds through a lending network for technology companies across over 60 countries. Tether originates the loans and provides USDT payment infrastructure. The fund does not lend in crypto.
Target market: global private credit is around $3T, projected to reach $5T by 2029. However, this space is currently seeing defaults and capital outflows.
Tether’s balance sheet: USDT in circulation of $184.6B, Q2 profit of $1.5B. Reserve surplus fell from $8.23B to $4.11B in just one quarter, as gold and BTC declined.
Tether’s real advantage is the USDT distribution network in emerging markets, and cross-border lending is exactly what turns it into revenue. But faster payments do not make loans safer. The key figure to watch is the reserve buffer—now only about 2.2% of USDT in circulation.

🔥MetaMask separates from ConsenSys, what about the airdrop?

🔴For the first time in nearly a decade, ConsenSys has changed its legal entity. The old company rebranded to MetaMask, with Joe Lubin serving as Chairman and CEO. The new company keeps the name ConsenSys, holding Linea, Besu, Teku, and the organizational infrastructure, run by Mike Kriak. To be completed before the end of 2026.

🔴The reason ConsenSys gave is that the consumer segment is able to accumulate value faster than the rest, and the two segments have served two entirely different markets.

🔴MetaMask is no longer just a web3 wallet. Its business area includes mUSD, a Mastercard card, and a Money Account on Monad with a target yield of 4% per year. The new mUSD market cap is around $32M.

🔴The new ConsenSys is betting on tokenization for institutions, projecting that Citi estimates $5.5T–$8.2T of assets will be tokenized by 2030.

🔴The IPO is still pending. An S-1 filing reportedly targeted late 02/2026 with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, but was pushed back after a sell-off. The most recent valuation is around $7B. Maybe splitting the two companies is to prepare for both the IPO and the launch of the Metamask token.

🔥El Salvador no longer uses public funds to buy Bitcoin

El Salvador has stopped using the state budget to accumulate Bitcoin since June 2025, according to the latest confirmation from the IMF.

Even so, the country’s Bitcoin reserve has still grown by roughly 1,541 BTC. The IMF said the new BTC came from private donations and is not related to the public budget.

Currently, El Salvador holds about 7,765 BTC, worth more than $617 million. On-chain data has not recorded any amount of Bitcoin being moved out of the reserve.

In return for a $1.4 billion credit package from the IMF, Nayib Bukele’s government has had to scale back Bitcoin’s role: businesses are no longer required to accept BTC, taxes can only be paid in USD, and the public sector is restricted from participating in activities related to Bitcoin.

🔥 Bitcoin ETF nears $1B for the third consecutive week as altcoin inflows lag

🔴 Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $987M in net inflows last week, up about 7% from the previous week. Marking 3 straight positive weeks with total inflows of $3.8B—the highest since the beginning of the year.

🔴 Flow breakdown
- BlackRock’s IBIT leads with about $691.5M
- The 03/09 session saw $730.8M net inflow—the strongest in roughly 9 months, with IBIT alone accounting for $454M
- Outflows from certain ETFs: GBTC $48M, HODL $33M, BTCW $5.2M
- Trading volume ~$14.57B, down from $18.92B the week before; buying momentum has cooled as $BTC has been range-bound.
-> Total net assets of the Bitcoin ETF group are about $103.3B, roughly ~6% of BTC’s market capitalization. On a cumulative basis for 2026 so far, Bitcoin spot ETFs are still down by about $1B.

🔴 Meanwhile, inflows into Ethereum and altcoins are cooling
- Spot Ethereum ETF: $218.4M, down 74% vs. the week immediately prior
- Spot XRP ETF: ~$19M, down 83% vs. $110.5M
- Spot Solana ETF: $6.18M, already has its 10th consecutive positive week despite insignificant volume
- Spot HYPE ETF: $12.27M
-> Capital is still flowing mainly into Bitcoin

🔥 TRUMP WANTS TO BRING HYPERLIQUID TO THE US

Trump said the CFTC is looking to bring Hyperliquid into the US market under a “fully compliant and legal” model.

It is highly likely that the US will not open directly to the current version of Hyperliquid. Instead, HYPE and the perpetual system may be accessed through regulated institutions such as Bitnomial or Kraken, along with KYC, custody controls, sanctions, and leverage limits.

Notably, Bitnomial has self-certified the HYPEUSD futures contract with the CFTC since April 2026.

If this door truly opens, the story will be much bigger than just $HYPE.

The US is trying to bring perpetuals + onchain liquidity + 24/7 trading inside the regulated financial system.

🇹🇭 THAILAND TIGHTENS CONTROL OVER SELF-CUSTODY CRYPTO WALLETS

Thailand’s SEC has officially issued the Travel Rule for Digital Assets, bringing crypto transfers between regulated platforms and self-custody wallets under stricter oversight.

From 27/02/2027, crypto businesses in Thailand will be required to:

🔴 Verify ownership of or control over self-custody wallets when customers deposit/withdraw crypto.

🔴 Collect information about the sender and receiver in transactions.

🔴 Share this information among the relevant digital asset service providers.

🔴 Retain transaction data for at least 5 years.

The notable point is that Thailand is not banning self-custody. Users still directly hold the private key and the assets.

But the boundary between personal wallets and the regulated financial system is gradually being KYC-ified.

Crypto may still remain permissionless on-chain. But the gateways for moving money into and out of the system are increasingly resembling traditional finance.

🔥 Solana validator votes narrowly to pass a proposal to reduce $SOL emissions

🔴SGP-0002 (Double Disinflation) reaches 67.001%, exceeding the 66.667% threshold by exactly 0.334 percentage points. Proposal content:
- Rate of $SOL emission reduction: 15% -> 30% per year
- Inflation target of 1.5% remains unchanged, reaching the milestone after 2.8 years instead of 5.7 years
- About 18.9 million fewer SOL issued over 6 years
- Expected staking yield: 4.34% in the first year, 2.25% in the third year

-> With 70 minutes left to the deadline, the pro side was still short by 58 million SOL. Kraken 2 reverses course, Galaxy follows, and JitoSOL holders override their validator. Word is Helius made 500 phone calls in the final few hours.

🔴However, the SGP-0003 proposal (burn resource fees) was rejected with 53.9%. Supply is reduced on the issuing side, with no compensation from fee burns. SIMD-0550 still requires the client to be implemented and the validator to be activated.

🔥Strategy to buy BTC back, but the important number isn't BTC

🔴Last week's Strategy report (24-30/8)
- Bought 4,603 BTC at $369.7M, average $80,318
- Treasury: 845,050 BTC, average cost basis $75,412, unrealized profit of about $2.2B
- Capital raised from selling 4,531,421 shares of MSTR via ATM, net proceeds $602.8M
- Net leverage at 0.0% according to the company's calculation method

-> Summer loop: sold 6,916 BTC at $62,081, bought back 4,603 BTC at $80,318, which is 29% higher. The treasury is still 2,345 BTC less than before the selling round.

🔴In June, when STRC fell below par value, the capital-raising channel closed, and Say, who was left behind, had to sell BTC. MSTR dropped 7.4% right after the news. The promise to buy 10-20 BTC for every 1 BTC sold is being carried out at a ratio of 0.67.

🔥Ethena partners with a neobank through Ethena Pay

🔴Ethena announced Ethena Pay on 01/09—an autonomous finance app built on Avalanche. It uses stablecoin USDE issued by the project itself, instead of relying on USDT or USDC. After the news, ENA price rose by about 8–10%, continuing an upward trend of more than 80% since mid-August.

🔴The structure of Ethena Pay:
- Balances are shown in USDE. You can top up via both fiat through IBAN and crypto (USDE, USDC, USDT)
- USD, EUR, and GBP transfers are free; other currencies charge 0.05–0.1%
- Spending card runs through the Visa network; cashback is paid in AVAX
- Split into 3 tiers: Standard (free), Pro (lock $2,000 ENA or refer 10 people), VIP (lock $10,000 ENA or refer 50 people)

🔴The yield is relatively high and divided into 3 tiers: Standard: 5% APY, Pro: 6% APY, VIP: 6% APY.

🔴The app is currently limited beta for 400 users. It will expand week by week throughout September and is available in 48 countries. The U.S., EU, U.K., Canada, and South Korea are all not yet on the list. Ethena has not specified which licenses it holds and where they are valid.

🔴The current supply of USDE is around $4.1B, compared with $15B at the end of 2025. The fee-switch activation point is $7.5B → which must be 2x the current level. Only when it reaches that threshold will 5% of gross revenue flow to the Foundation, and then 95% of that portion is used for buyback $ENA .

🔴Ethena Pay is a product aimed at reducing the market free-float $ENA and increasing USDE’s market share. This is an effort to create demand for the stablecoin after demand from the trader basis trade cohort weakened. There’s no set timeline for Ethena Pay’s launch, and I think this product’s positive impact may not be very significant.

ETF BITCOIN & ETHEREUM PULL IN MORE THAN $2.6B IN A SINGLE WEEK
Institutional money is returning to crypto very quickly.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US attracted net inflows of about $1.9B over the past week, the strongest since October 2025. In particular, BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for more than $1B of inflows in the last 4 sessions.
Ethereum is also not left out. ETH ETFs drew in an additional roughly $697M, which is the strongest inflow week since October 2025.
The notable point is that just one week earlier, total BTC + ETH ETF flows were still seeing net outflows of nearly $400M. In other words, capital inflows flipped direction by almost $3B within a week.
BTC is up more than 22%, while ETH is up more than 28%.

🔴BOUNCEBIT KHAI TỬ LAYER-1 AFTER THE $3 MILLION HACK

BounceBit decided to completely shut down the BounceBit Chain after the hacker exploited a protocol vulnerability and withdrew approximately 286.5 million $BB worth over $3M.

Instead of patching the issue and restarting the network, the project chose to simply abandon Layer-1. One contributing reason is that Evmos — the underlying technology platform behind the chain — has stopped development, making the costs to maintain and re-audit the system too high.

All $BB will be migrated to the BEP-20 standard on BNB Chain. The snapshot was taken before the exploit occurred, meaning the tokens that were stolen will be excluded from the migration process.

Notably, BounceBit was once the first project to be listed on Binance’s Megadrop. In the end, a Layer-1 that was expected to build its own ecosystem ends up returning to operating as a token on BNB Chain.

AUGUST RECAP

August had no shortage of stories. But the flow of funds is starting to show a pretty clear order of priorities.

- PUMP is still leading. Onchain is heating up as FOMO continues to pull in hundreds of thousands of new users to the ecosystem every month. As long as the onboarding pace can be maintained, there’s still no reason for the momentum to fade.
- ENA is right behind. DAT just ran nearly 3x, while mNAV is starting to catch up in valuation. With the current positioning, the likelihood of a major announcement in the near term is quite noteworthy.
- ZEC has surpassed its ATH: the top-performing major coin in the group, and it has now broken out from a long-lasting HTF accumulation zone. The privacy trade is clearly still paying off—there are still people willing to fund it. ZRO is preparing for the next phase: launching a chain focused on capital markets, targeting around 2M TPS, with institutional adoption as the key focus. The story here is no longer just about interoperability.
- LIT + HYPE remain the two strongest names benefiting when crypto volume returns. HYPE is at its ATH, while LIT has bounced extremely strongly from the bottom. If capital keeps flowing back into the market, this is still the group with relatively “clean” beta compared to the rest.

Next, we’ll break down each category rotation to see where the money is leaving and where it’s preparing to focus.
GM.

🔴 MANTRA REPEATS A TROUBLE – MAINNET HALTED AFTER A SECURITY INCIDENT
MANTRA Chain had to stop the entire mainnet after detecting an issue related to a vulnerability in the EVM module. The network is still frozen at block 17,449,398, causing all activities involving transactions, bridges, IBC relays, as well as related deposits/withdrawals to be interrupted.
The MANTRA team said they have identified the root cause, completed the v8.4.0 patch, and are coordinating with validators to prepare for restarting the network. The project affirmed that users’ funds, exchanges, and third-party partners are not directly affected.
The incident comes at a time when MANTRA still hasn’t fully escaped the aftermath of the historical crash at $OM in April 2025, when the token lost more than 90% of its value in a short period, sparking major controversy over the token supply structure and the team’s operations. After that, the project had to restructure and swap the token to MANTRA.
MANTRA’s price continues to face pressure after the chain-stop news, dropping more than 9% immediately following the incident. A project once promoted as an RWA blockchain for organizations now has to deal with a more basic problem again: restoring trust after a token crash, and then facing another situation where the mainnet must be halted.

ETF cash flow sees the largest net inflow day of 2026

Spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. +$517M right after the U.S. Treasury announced an increase in the size of bond purchases—this is the largest day’s inflow in 100 days.
Spot Ethereum ETF +$189M, the strongest since last October

Total net assets of the U.S. Bitcoin ETF group are $84.31B. $517M is only 0.61% of the total across all U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, and about ~0.04% of BTC market cap. Still not enough to say the bull run has returned.

Where is the money flowing into which ETF?
- IBIT alone accounts for $284.7M, or 55% of inflows into BTC ETFs.
- For ETH, three ETH funds—ETHA, FETH, and Grayscale Mini—accounted for up to 92% of inflows; 4 out of 11 funds recorded zero inflow. Clearly, the capital is not being easily “distributed” at this time.

The main driver of this price surge doesn’t come from ETF buying pressure; instead, the upward momentum has pulled FOMO into the ETFs. Evidence: the creation orders were recorded after the session, with T+1 settlement, while $2.7B in short positions were liquidated.

On the 30-day chart, Bitcoin ETF cash flow is positive at about ~$663M, reversing from the prior month’s $2.40B net outflows. August ETH attracted $534.2M, the strongest of this year.

Cash flow only truly returns when the price is red or flat but inflows keep rising steadily. Either way, QE (or disguised QE) is always the strongest driver for risky assets.

🔴Arthur Hayes has just announced a comeback to directly become CEO of Flop Labs — a project building Flop Network for the AI Agent economy. $FLOP is being promoted with a familiar combo: no presale, no VC, fair launch, and a big expected airdrop in Q4/2026.

🔴The Black man previously called $HYPE, $NEAR , and $ZEC the Holy Trinity, set a target for HYPE at $150, and even said HYPE has the potential to rise 126 times. By early June, Hayes dumped all of HYPE, NEAR, and ZEC in turn. With $WLD, the turnaround was even faster: he announced that he would continue to hold, and less than 24 hours later he sold everything; afterward, WLD then plunged by more than 20%.

🔴Trades from wallets associated with Hayes even show a rather grim outcome: 15 winning trades, 25 losing trades, with total recorded PnL of -$2.47M. ENA is the only name that brought net profit, while SYN, LDO, ETHFI, PEPE, PENDLE, and ETH all ended in losses.

FORMER BNB CHAIN EMPLOYEE ACCUSED OF STEALING $628,000 FROM A MEMECOIN
A wallet that was once used by BNB Chain in a tutorial video for token issuance has become a tool for creating and dumping the memecoin ASTEROID.
BNB Chain said a former employee illegally kept the seed phrase after leaving the company, thereby regaining control of the wallet and deploying a new token. The project stated that it does not create, promote, or guarantee ASTEROID, and it is coordinating with relevant authorities while taking legal measures.
According to Lookonchain, four new wallets spent about $10,000 to buy 79.67% of the total supply, then sold most of the tokens and recovered 1,103 BNB, equivalent to $638,000. Estimated profit was $628,000. The connection between these wallets and the former employee remains an accusation based on on-chain analysis.
The case is not just a memecoin speculation scheme. It exposes a weakness in internal key management governance: while the blockchain can be transparent, real power still rests with whoever holds the seed phrase.
In the era of token issuance that takes only a few minutes, personnel control and access keys have become the defense line of an entire ecosystem. $BNB

367 MILLION USD STABLECOIN SLIDES OUT OF SOUTH KOREA: MONEY FLOWS ARE CHOOSING USD
In June, South Korea’s largest crypto exchange recorded 2,762.5 billion won of stablecoins moving overseas, while inflows returning to the market reached only 2,202.2 billion won. The net difference is about 367 million USD, marking the 18th consecutive month that stablecoins have left domestic exchanges.
These funds mainly head to derivatives, staking, DeFi, and tokenized real-world assets—products that are still limited in South Korea. Behind the crypto transactions is a clear currency shift: investors sell won, buy USD-pegged stablecoins, then move the capital onto global financial infrastructure.
Seoul wants to keep money flowing into won-pegged stablecoins. But the debate among the central bank, lawmakers, and technology firms continues to revolve around the right to issue digital money and control capital flows.
A new order is taking shape: the won still dominates the real economy, while the USD continues to expand its influence on the blockchain. $BTC

PROHIBITED CRYPTO MINING IN MOSCOW UNTIL THE END OF 2032

Russia is redrawing the crypto mining map within the limits of the national power grid.
Under Decree No. 936, cryptocurrency mining and participation in mining pools will be banned in the city of Moscow, the entire Moscow Oblast, and some areas of Kursk Oblast from 15/08/2026 through 31/12/2032.
The reason is electricity. Mining activity in the Moscow area is estimated to consume about 1 GW, while the total capacity of data centers could rise to 3.6 GW by 2032—equivalent to around 17% of the region’s power system peak load.
But this is not a nationwide crypto ban across all of Russia. Moscow still allows mining in suitable areas, requiring companies to register, control equipment, measure electricity consumption, and collect taxes. Crypto also paves the way for international payments as Russia’s financial system faces pressure from Western sanctions.
Russia is not eliminating mining. Russia is moving it away from areas with insufficient power, placing this industry in a geographic zone where the state can control energy, taxes, and cash flows.
$BTC