Eddie Barbosa

POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENT OF UP TO 30% IN TWO YEARS FOR COMMISSIONED POSITIONS IN THE LULA GOVERNMENT

Brazilians have faced difficulties under this government with the return and implementation of several taxes. To make matters worse, the adjustment of the minimum wage in the last two years was insufficient, with a total increase of approximately 16.5%. Considering an accumulated inflation of approximately 9.64% in the period, the real gain was only 6.86% above inflation.

Meanwhile, the Lula government plans an adjustment of up to 30% for commissioned positions in the next two years, with an estimated impact of up to R$$ 1.3 billion on public accounts. I do not disregard the importance of these positions, but we are living in a turbulent fiscal period, and as investors, we seek fiscal stability so that the country can grow sustainably.

Next Monday, the Finance Minister is expected to issue an opinion on a package to contain public spending, and we hope that structural cuts will be adopted. However, I believe that these efforts will not be enough to achieve a surplus or even eliminate the deficit by 2025. The country needs several deep structural reforms so that we can guarantee sustainable and stable economic growth.

Continue to invest in knowledge and in your future self, because I still believe in Brazil and Brazilians.

Study cryptocurrencies and invest.

DOLLAR RISES AGAIN WITH FISCAL FEARS AND US ELECTIONS.

Regardless of who is in power, it is essential that the country demonstrates a clear commitment to fiscal responsibility. Without this signal, the risk is to scare away foreign investors and weaken the national currency.
It is illusory to think that only the richest are affected by this. The reality is that, with the dollar close to R$6, public debt growing and future interest rates at historic levels, everyone ends up feeling the negative effects.
Therefore, it is essential not to let ideologies or political sympathies prevent us from questioning inadequate economic decisions. After all, we are not in the midst of a pandemic nor are we facing a war; we need fiscal seriousness to stabilize the country.

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CUTS IN EXPENSES: HADDAD SAYS THERE IS NO DATE FOR ANNOUNCEMENT OF MEASURES.

NEW TAXES AND FEES ARE BEING CREATED, DPVAT IS BACK.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad reported that he is making progress in discussions with President Lula about spending cuts, but there is still no date for the announcement of these actions. Haddad mentioned that he has several meetings with Lula throughout the week and avoided using the term "package" to refer to the possible measures under analysis.

It is clear that this government is having difficulty in making spending cuts. Despite the efforts of the Finance Ministry to try to eliminate the primary deficit this year, we know that the final decision rests with the president, whose focus has been mainly on increasing expenses. While the long-awaited spending cuts package has not been announced, we see a constant increase in fees and taxes, such as the recent reactivation of DPVAT for vehicle owners, the charge being mandatory from 2025. The amount has not yet been defined. The government estimates between R$50 and R$60 per year.

BITCOIN EXCEEDS R$ 400K FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY; CAN THE RISING CONTINUE?

Close to the historic mark in dollars

Bitcoin (BTC) reached a historic milestone this Tuesday (29), surpassing for the first time the mark of R$ 400 thousand, driven by factors such as optimism regarding the US elections, ETF capital in sight and exchange rate variations in Brazil. In dollars, the cryptocurrency reached US$ 71.540, the highest value in seven months, approaching the record of US$ 74 thousand registered in March. Analyst Tony Sycamore, from IG Australia Pty, suggests that the appreciation reflects a "pricing of victory" by Donald Trump, known for supporting the crypto sector in his campaign.

The net inflow of US$$ 479.35 million into BTC spot ETFs in the US on Monday (28) reinforces the optimistic scenario, with BlackRock's IBIT ETF leading with US$$ 315.19 million. This flow suggests a buying and accumulation movement, which could sustain the rise. Derivatives traders are betting on an even greater appreciation, with the crypto potentially reaching US$$ 80 thousand by the end of November, regardless of the election result.

Source: Infomoney

BITCOIN: RUSSIA RESPONDS TO SANCTIONS WITH MINING ALLIANCE WITH BRICS

Russia is using Bitcoin as an alternative to circumvent sanctions imposed by the West. Through a cryptocurrency mining alliance within the BRICS bloc, which is made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The goal is to reduce the dependence of these countries' economies on the dollar and traditional financial systems.

The BRICS coalition is joining forces in a Russian-led initiative to mine Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The focus is on creating a mining infrastructure and data centers that can operate within the member countries, avoiding dependence on Western technologies and escaping the reach of financial sanctions. This strategy aims to give the group more economic autonomy and strengthen its positions on the global stage.

Source: Investing.com

My opinion: The transition from traditional currencies to cryptocurrencies will occur naturally, without the need to create new currencies. This does not mean that physical and traditional currencies will cease to exist, but we will see a significant increase in transactions carried out with cryptocurrencies. Brazil could and should consider creating a reserve in Bitcoin so as not to be left behind when this change intensifies, overcoming ideological barriers. This measure would not only protect the country in a changing global financial scenario, but would also demonstrate our capacity for adaptation and innovation.

BRAZILIAN STATE-OWNED COMPANIES WILL CLOSE 2024 WITH THE LARGEST DEFAULT IN THE LAST 15 YEARS.

The current scenario of financial mismanagement in Brazilian federal state-owned companies is seriously compromising the country's credibility, especially at a time when the government is prioritizing the review of public spending to balance the books. The increase in losses highlights the inability to implement more efficient and transparent management, fueling the perception that the government's fiscal effort may be insufficient to overcome the economic challenges.

It is regrettable to have to highlight negative data on public administration, something that concerns everyone, after all, we are all in the same boat. However, it is undeniable that the management of public accounts has been disastrous. Even those who do not have in-depth knowledge of economics can identify the signs of financial deterioration. The negative result of state-owned companies, which will inevitably be borne by us, the taxpayers, is clear proof of this scenario.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Brazil will have 130 federal state-owned companies in 2024. Among these, the largest deficits are concentrated in Emgepron, Correios, Emgea, Infraero and Dataprev. These losses not only drain public resources but also aggravate the urgent need for reforms. Without decisive and structural action, the country's economic recovery remains at risk, and the burden of mismanagement will fall directly on citizens.

BRAZILIAN GOVERNMENT ADVOCATES ALTERNATIVE CURRENCY TO THE DOLLAR FOR BRICS.

WHAT COULD THIS CAUSE?

The fact that the Brazilian president mentioned the possibility of excluding the dollar from trade negotiations between BRICS members could, in fact, generate negative implications for the Brazilian economy. The proposal, although restricted to the BRICS bloc, could be poorly received by other economies, especially those that maintain a strong relationship with the dollar, and this could result in boycotts or economic retaliation.

Brazil is an open economy, with several sectors and businesspeople that depend on international trade, many of whom do business with countries outside the BRICS, where the dollar is the main reference currency. Replacing the dollar with an alternative currency in transactions could cause uncertainty and fear, damaging the confidence of traditional trading partners and even hindering access to important markets. Furthermore, many Brazilian companies conduct their financial transactions and agreements in dollars, and an abrupt change could generate instability, both in relation to existing contracts and to economic predictability.

The risk of a negative reaction from nations that adopt the dollar as their international standard of exchange is real, and Brazil, because it depends on its exports to sustain its economic growth, could end up facing trade and diplomatic challenges. If implemented, the adoption of an alternative currency for BRICS could benefit the bloc's economies in terms of greater financial autonomy, but it is crucial to balance this initiative with the preservation of already established trade relations, which are based on the dollar, to avoid negative impacts on the private sector and on Brazil's own economic growth.

LEAVE YOUR OPINION IN THE COMMENTS.

DOLLAR AT R$ 6? BUY GOOD CRYPTOS TO WIN ON BOTH ENDS.

The recent rise in the dollar, which reached R$ 5.73, raised doubts about the possibility of the currency reaching R$ 6 by the end of the year. Although many analysts consider this scenario unlikely, they do not completely rule out this possibility, especially in the face of potential economic shocks.

Among the risk factors are the elections in the USA, which bring political uncertainty and can increase market volatility.

In Brazil, fiscal risk continues to be a concern. The difficulty in controlling public spending and approving structural reforms increases investor distrust, putting pressure on the exchange rate. Added to this, global geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between Israel and Hamas and the war in Ukraine, can aggravate volatility.
Thus, although unlikely, the dollar could surpass R$ 6 if these factors intensify by the end of the year.

DREX: FOR OR AGAINST?

I believe that most Brazilians are already aware of the possible implementation of a digital currency by the Central Bank, which already has a name: Drex. However, much of what has been publicized focuses on the advantages of this transition, leaving aside the disadvantages.

Here are some that I was able to identify:

* Privacy: With the digitalization of the currency, each transaction will be recorded in the system, which increases control and traceability over our financial transactions. This can raise concerns about users' privacy. In addition, Brazil has already gone through critical moments, such as the confiscation of savings accounts in the past, and we are currently seeing discussions about the government recovering amounts forgotten in bank accounts. These precedents raise concerns that, with a digital currency, the control of the Central Bank and the government over the population's money may intensify, opening the way for unwanted interventions.

* Digital exclusion and adaptation: Even with technological advances, there is still a significant portion of the population that has difficulty accessing or dealing with digital technology, which can generate inequalities.

* Financial instability: The transition to a digital currency can generate uncertainty in traditional sectors, such as banking, in addition to possible fluctuations in public confidence until the system is fully consolidated.

These points show that, although Drex has benefits, there are also challenges and risks that need to be analyzed carefully.

A NEW JUMP,

Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new record in reais on Sunday (20), reaching R$ 396 thousand, driven by the rise of the dollar, which was quoted at R$ 5.69 and by the appreciation of the cryptocurrency in dollars. The previous record was in July, when BTC reached R$ 380.5 thousand. In dollars, BTC reached close to US$ 70 thousand, before falling back to US$ 68.414 on Monday (21).

Bitcoin's appreciation was driven by investments in Bitcoin ETFs in the United States and by expectations surrounding the American elections. Investors' optimism is related to the possibility of more favorable regulations for cryptocurrencies after the presidential election on November 5. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have agendas that favor the crypto sector, which increases expectations of a positive scenario for investors.

GOVERNMENT CONSIDER TAXING MILLIONAIRES TO COMPENSATE FOR INCOME TAX EXEMPTION UP TO R$$ 5 THOUSAND

A brief example of what I believe will happen with this taxation model.

Imagine that there are three markets on your street: Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay.

Mercado Brasil decides to increase the prices of its products, believing that the residents of the region have enough money to pay more and, thus, hopes to increase its revenue. However, what actually happens is that customers start to migrate to the Argentina and Uruguay markets, where prices are lower.

This example illustrates the concept of the Laffer Curve. Just like in the market, if the government increases taxes too much on the richest (as Mercado Brasil did with prices), these people may look for alternatives to avoid paying so much, such as investing in other countries or using legal loopholes to pay less taxes. In the end, the result is the opposite of what was expected: government revenue (or market sales) decreases, as "customers" migrate to other options. In addition to being a disincentive to work and investment, high tax rates discourage millionaires from working harder, innovating or investing in the country.

WE DON'T HAVE A DAY OF PEACE!!!

INVEST SO YOU DON'T DEPEND ON THE GOVERNMENT.

YOUR PROPERTY WILL BE WORTH LESS WITH THIS NEW MEASURE FROM CAIXA ECONOMICA FEDERAL.

Your property may be worth less starting in October/2024. Caixa Econômica Federal announced that, starting in November, it will reduce the limits for real estate financing: through the Constant Amortization System (SAC), it will finance up to 70% of the property's value (previously it was 80%), and through the PRICE system, only 50% (previously it was 70%).

These changes affect both new and used properties, as well as lots, constructions and commercial properties. With Caixa controlling 70% of real estate credit in Brazil, this may directly impact the value of properties. But why?

* Fewer people buying: With the reduction in financing, buyers will need a larger down payment, which reduces the number of people who can buy properties. * Slower sales: With fewer buyers, the time it takes to sell may increase, and prices may drop to attract new buyers.
* Cheap properties gain strength: Lower-value properties may become more attractive, putting pressure on higher-value properties to lower prices to compete.
* Greater impact on expensive properties: Mid- and high-end properties, which depend more on high-value financing, may suffer greater depreciation.

Conclusion: If you don't need to sell now, you can wait for the market to improve. In the meantime, renting may be a good option, since the demand for rentals is expected to grow. In addition, crises usually bring good buying opportunities!

LET'S FILL UP YOUR WALLET.

Three reasons why I believe we are close to a Bull Market

1 - Institutional FOMO in Bitcoin spot ETFs: In the last three days, almost 760 million dollars were invested in ETFs that track the price of Bitcoin. This shows that large institutions are afraid of missing out (FOMO) in this growing market. The approval of these ETFs makes it easier for large investors to access Bitcoin, increasing confidence and attracting more money to the cryptocurrency market.

2 - Goldman Sachs forecast on interest rates in the United States: The bank predicts that interest rates in the United States could fall to 3.25% by June 2025. This is positive for the cryptocurrency market, as lower rates encourage investment in assets like Bitcoin, which offer the potential for higher returns. With lower yields on traditional investments, interest in crypto tends to increase.

3 - A possible victory for Donald Trump in the US elections is seen positively by the cryptocurrency market, as he tends to be more favorable to the adoption of crypto assets. His more open stance towards innovation and less government regulation are interpreted as a more favorable environment for the growth of the sector. With Trump in power, many believe that cryptocurrencies could encounter fewer regulatory barriers, facilitating the expansion and adoption of this growing market.

In short, the strong institutional interest in Bitcoin, the possible drop in interest rates and the likely election of Trump are creating a favorable environment for the growth of the cryptocurrency market.

The top cryptocurrencies for October 2024 continue to be dominated by household names, with some surprises among emerging tokens.

Bitcoin (BTC) - Bitcoin continues to have a positive outlook, driven by macroeconomic factors such as global monetary policy. Analysts point out that it could reach new highs, between US$$ 67,000 and US$$ 71,000.

Ethereum (ETH) - Ethereum remains relevant, especially with its second-layer solutions that improve scalability and reduce transaction fees. Its price is stable, but there is potential for growth with more institutional adoption.

Solana (SOL) - After important events such as the Solana Breakpoint, the asset maintains investor interest. Its performance may improve in the weeks following October, especially with new developments on its network.

Stacks (STX) - This cryptocurrency, integrated with Bitcoin, has attracted institutional interest. Recent updates have increased transaction speeds, which could push its price above $$ 2.

Polygon (POL) - The migration of the MATIC token to POL has brought more scalability and decentralization, positioning Polygon as an interesting choice for those looking for an Ethereum-compatible blockchain.

Do you own any of the cryptocurrencies mentioned? If so, which ones? Let us know in the comments.

Deadline to Withdraw 'Forgotten Money' from Banks Ends Today (16)

Approximately 42 million individuals and 3.6 million legal entities have until this Wednesday (16) to withdraw “forgotten money” from the financial system. According to the most recent data from the Central Bank's System of Receivables (SVR), referring to August, R$ 8.59 billion have not yet been withdrawn – R$ 6.62 billion by individuals and R$ 1.97 billion by companies.

Source: Forbes Brazil

Check if you have amounts to be withdrawn!

Don't let your money sit idle or be appropriated. The amount you earned with so much effort may be waiting to be withdrawn.

Step by step to check if you have funds available:

1 - Access the official website: Go to the Central Bank of Brazil website in the specific area to check the amounts to be withdrawn: https://valoresareceber.bcb.gov.br.

2 - Enter your details: You will need your CPF or CNPJ, if the query is for a company.

3 - Check: The system will show if there is any amount to be withdrawn in your name or in the name of your company.

4 - Follow the instructions: If there are funds available, the system will explain the procedure required for withdrawal. In some cases, it may be necessary to contact the responsible financial institution directly.

Why is it important to check?

Leaving this money forgotten can result in the loss of a resource that is rightfully yours. It is quick, simple, and can mean an unexpected financial return!

Nobel Prize winner in economics sees Brazil as "trapped" by a weak society and state.

“Corruption has affected trust in democracy”

James A. Robinson, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2024, highlighted in an interview with Estadão in 2022 that Brazil is "trapped by a weak society and state". A professor at the University of Chicago, Robinson suggested that the country should prioritize transparency and combating clientelism to strengthen the state. “If you make several small changes, you reach a point where things start to move”, he added.

In 2023, his colleague Daron Acemoglu, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), told Veja magazine that income distribution programs, such as those created by President Lula in his first terms, are important, but reiterated that economic policies should go beyond simple income transfer, aiming to create more opportunities in the job market to reduce social inequalities.

Acemoglu also noted that corruption has undermined trust in Brazilian democracy, and that the most effective strategy for the country would be to invest in creating opportunities that integrate people with different levels of skills and knowledge into the job market.

My take: The Brazilian state faces challenges in terms of efficiency, which may limit its ability to promote rapid and significant changes in people’s lives. Those who place all their hopes in government may find it difficult to achieve prosperity. However, it is essential to recognize the importance of a balance between the role of government in guaranteeing opportunities and rights, and the individual responsibility to seek growth and success through one’s own efforts. Invest now, thinking about the future you.