Crypto-爱币斯坦

Why are they masters? That is the result of thousands of trials and tribulations. How much time, energy and cost have you spent on learning how to trade? If you have spent nothing or very little, then don't ask why others can get results but you can't. I practiced trading for more than eight hours a day. It took two hours a day to find targets. I researched four projects at the fastest every day, and sometimes I could only finish one. The whole team researched all the currencies of Binance and OK very clearly, which took more than half a year. Most people would be numb after just one look at the Google spreadsheet. With so much information, we think the basic information is clear at a glance. Next, we will study the K-line pattern, market maker methods, project structure and operation. This is also the reason why currencies are not shared often. The reason is simple. Olympic gold medalists only have a few minutes or one chance to go on stage, but they have studied and practiced hard for more than ten years! When you see people sharing coins, your cognition is not at the same frequency and level as theirs, and you can't even tell whether the person sharing is an expert or not. So many people often suffer a lot in this regard. They call it paying a lot of tuition fees, but in fact, they have wasted their hard-earned money. They wanted to change their fate in the coin circle, but ended up becoming fuel for others.

Learning is important, and practice is more important. There is a gap in the middle that needs to be crossed. It is very difficult to integrate knowledge and practice.

My confidence comes from the fact that the entire team has been deeply involved in the coin circle for many years and has experienced the trials and tribulations of the coin circle, and the confidence brought by continuous learning and practice. That's why I say that each coin has its own temper, because in my heart they are not just a string of letters but people with life and feelings.

I last saw the line “When I study to strive for the rise of China” when I was reading.

Looking back at the road I’ve walked, reading can be wise—and it is the foundation of growth.

In the crypto world, where having more money is treated as the primary standard, after you “go all-in” a few times and make a pile of money, you can end up being as swaggering as Brother Sun, looking down on Buffett. It’s also like holding a stack of money and pointing at “Money X Sen” and “Yuan X Ping,” saying, “What can you do? Are you richer than me? Show your account!”

It sounds like it’s not entirely wrong—yes, you may indeed have more money than you—but I also feel like something is off, though I can’t quite put my finger on it.

Stopping losses in trading is the top priority. How to set a reasonable stop loss is crucial—not only for futures, but also for spot trading. You need to decide how much loss you can accept. Then, you think about what price level to enter.

Many people always want to catch the bottom—meaning they don’t accept losing money, only accepting buying and then profit as the price rises!

Controlling your stop loss helps you last longer. There is a formula you can use to calculate position sizing, for both spot and futures:
Quantity to buy = Total amount * risk coefficient / entry price - stop loss price

If you don’t want to stop out, set the stop loss price to 0.

Big Bing really gives face. When I was live-streaming, I said Big Bing would start pulling the order book. But it wouldn’t make a blow-off top— it wouldn’t go to 795 or 800. It would pull up to around 780–785.

What a pity. My prediction was right, but I didn’t get on the train. And I ended up with another round of analysis that was as fierce as a tiger—only for the trade to be something completely ridiculous! Suddenly I feel like going to the rooftop to cry out my grievance!
$BTC

Some coin friends are asking me: will the Trump coin ($TRUMP ) explode during the U.S. midterm elections?

If it explodes, then it’s speculation—short-lived. If you want to chase it, you must protect your principal. If you make money, get out.

The U.S. midterm elections are not Trump’s presidential election; it’s the Senate (one-third of the seats) and the entire House of Representatives, as well as elections for some governors. Right now Republicans control both the Senate and the House. If the election fails, there will be a lot of resistance to Trump’s subsequent pushing of policies. This has no direct relationship with Trump himself.

Previously, when Trump was running for president, he had an indirect connection with PEPE, and PEPE surged more than 4x. Later, after Trump was elected, PEPE surged about another 3x. What’s different now is that at present, the number one U.S. meme coin is treated more like a collectible. Also, in California, the U.S., there are proposed local bills banning celebrity meme coins. The probability that a Trump coin can surge 3–5x is small.

Everyone knows what kind of person Trump is and his ability to make money. He’s even more formidable than Sun Ge—together with Chain Sun Ge, everyone gets sliced! Every time he holds a banquet to promote Trump coins, he invites people based on their holdings. It’s exactly the same playbook as the ones that run CX pools in school. It’s something we in East China have already played with before. Every time they mess with Trump coins, they give a little pump—and then it falls even lower. During the midterm election, Trump probably doesn’t have time to go around calling people to buy Trump coins.

Market makers may create opportunities. If KOLs call the shots and retail investors rush in, there may also be a chance they pump in the trend—so they can harvest. That’s why, make your profit and leave. Don’t be greedy. You want profits; they want your principal.

I won’t touch Trump coins. And I also won’t touch WLFI—WLFI has been dropping all the way. They have no cost to issue tokens, and they can harvest tens of billions—so satisfying for them. I won’t be one of the victims under their knives. Even if they do a pump, I won’t jump in. This kind of money-making has no staying power and also consumes limited energy.
$TRUMP $WLFI

The first principle of wealth is accumulation, not luck
The first principle of opportunity is insight, not following the crowd
The first principle of getting things done is focus, not trying to do too much
The first principle of success is experimentation, not perfection

Besides the U.S. dollar, the yen, gold, Bitcoin, U.S. stocks, and oil are all down across the board. Judging from the market trend at this stage, I think the assumption that things are overly dovish is mistaken, because the market is always right.

Just now, Bitcoin dropped to 768. The order-flow pressure level at 798 has formed. I took a look—when it reached 768, BlackRock began buying. The data shows it has bought 1,800 units so far. We’ll continue to observe whether the buying will keep going. I have to say, BlackRock is still amazing.

I seriously suspect that this straight drop was intentional, so that BlackRock could pick up cheap. After all, it fell in a really inexplicable way. Something feels off.

As for the level at 755—if it doesn’t break below there, I won’t be looking for a major pullback.

Once again, the market is always right. The one who’s wrong is me.

$BTC
@Richard Teng @CZ @Yi He

Reports about Wolsh being hawkish are misleading people. My trainees and I listened to his speech in the office from start to finish. Overall, it was neutral and slightly dovish.

But during the speech, the market—or the “big pie” trend—kept falling. It looked like a hawkish move would lead to a sudden crash. In the office, I waited and planned to go long. This happened too quickly—seeing only a 1-minute chart doesn’t let you read the structure and signals clearly. So I could only try entering at positions that were prepared in advance. I entered at 788 and got stopped out, then I entered at 78444 to protect profit and limit loss.

After the speech ended, the trainees watched the news reports and said it was hawkish. I told them: “Trash reporting—misleading retail traders.” Then at 78628 I continued with long positions. I told them to wait a moment and that the market would pull back to the breakout point around 795—and it did. It returned and pulled back.

I emphasized that when news hits, the market will mislead us. We must have the ability to verify and discern for ourselves. That’s why I stay up late to listen to the Fed meeting and all kinds of speeches—I’m comparing what they say with the actual market reaction and the news flow, and also how the big players cut retail traders. Years of accumulated experience are not for show; it’s all hard-earned from sleepless nights, leading to an intuitive judgment.

During the speech, they in the office said gold is falling and the big pie is falling. I said: “You haven’t even bought gold—why are you talking about gold? Focus on the big pie for support levels and be ready to enter and make money.”

Over the weekend it’s been choppy again. If it can’t push up, the probability of a decline next week is high. This time, at the Bitcoin conference, there was no major dump—but the hype isn’t as big as it is in the U.S. In the 2024 Bitcoin conference, Trump went. In the 2025 conference, the Vice President JD Vance went. This Hong Kong Bitcoin conference clearly had a lower level of规格.”
$BTC
@CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng

@吴衿臻 Hello old iron, as you requested, I’ll make a chart for you. Take a look and analyze it yourself. My conclusion is that there isn’t necessarily a linear relationship—such as the idea that when the Fed cuts rates, it will definitely go up, or when the Fed raises rates, it will definitely go down, like that.

Because, based on my many years of observation, in finance—including the crypto market—there is no absolute linear relationship or counter-relationship. Under specific international contexts and economic conditions, you need to analyze specific issues in a case-by-case manner.

When I teach international finance to students, I also always emphasize not to rely on experience or rote memorization, but to analyze specific problems. Pay attention to the process and the reasoning process. If you’re right, the results will be roughly the same. If you haven’t figured out the logic and it happens to be right, you’ll still fall into a trap next time.

I hope my analysis and personal summary of experience can help you.

Thank you for your attention and recognition.

@BTB投研-中南 also send me a forecast of the trend again, so I can see where your prediction is wrong and point it out to him.

To be honest, I can’t see where it’s wrong. In any case, my conclusion is that the pullback should be completed at the end of September or early October, and then we start charging into the second wave. The key is, I somehow forgot how I derived this conclusion. My intelligence is not enough.

You guys look over this breakdown—what other problems are there?

California bans meme coins and will become one of the first state-level regulations in the U.S. to restrict the issuance of meme coins by political figures. This is defying what’s on the surface and directly opposing Trump. California’s economic strength ranks among the very top in the country—and it’s also fairly representative.

I’ve seen a lot of people talking about $ENA —Hayes is also calling for buys, and lots of people are saying that. If you’re considering buying, just a reminder: don’t get carried away. Protect your principal; let the profits fly. Even if the profit grows 100x or 1000x, you can still hold on.

It’s best not to get carried away! A 130% increase in 10 days is a “blow-up.” This isn’t the old crypto market anymore. Meme coins are even hard to reach a market cap of 100 million, let alone and they’re still trending downhill.

OneKey Security Team reproduces the Ledger vulnerability, and attacked users may experience situations where approvals do not match actual executed transactions.

I’m using OneKey hardware wallet! Before this, Coinkite had already made things precarious for wallets.

This kind of thing makes me feel utterly powerless. Hackers can scan wallet addresses through crawlers, track large wallets, and then wait to snipe!

Fortunately, I’m just a nobody.

Seeing this news makes me want to laugh— is this still the crypto circle? Even in 2024, with a copycat it’s still a 10x run. Earlier than that, it was 10x in just 7 days to even make the news. Now a 10-day rise of 130% is called a “big surge!” “Big surge!” It’s still not as good as what Micron and Hynix can do!
@Yi He @Richard Teng @CZ

I even said that the big bull would break through 830 and go to 860, but Yilihua actually publicly said that the 860 area is for the long side. I guess the 860 level can’t be reached, or at least can’t be reached in the near term. This is exactly counter‑human nature thinking. When a big-shot KOL publicly states a level, the market maker will definitely take action accordingly. Think back to how Yilihua back then kept being bullish on Ether and lost big—when she’s actually the founder of a solid capital firm, and her investment is okay and her project launches to cut the crowd is okay too. But trading still needs more practice and refinement; only after you hit enough pitfalls and get rubbed up by the market can you truly grow.

Back when BZZ was cutting the crowd, it was also a high-end game.

Last night near 798 I went long on a position. I originally expected that yesterday’s BTC would break above 813, but in the afternoon I just took one shot, and the US evening session also didn’t push through. This morning, BTC finally reached 815, and my time prediction was wrong again.

To be able to pinpoint the price level ranges, you need solid trading fundamentals. Timing is even harder. Although I can roughly predict the right levels, it’s very difficult to be precise about when it will arrive—often the margin of error is measured in days. Overall it’s still okay; I’ll keep practicing and improving.

When I placed the trade last night, I was chatting with Lao Zhang. After we talked, his mood improved a lot.

Actually, in life and in doing things—including trading—if you don’t experience the world’s flavors of vinegar and ink, how would you know the bitterness and sorrow of trading? You have to go through it yourself, step on the traps, and only then will you understand. Even after half a lifetime of storms and half a lifetime of injuries, even if you don’t resent and just accept the coldness of the human world, you still need ambition for a sky-high path when no one helps you. With my own solitude and courage, I踏雪到山巅—through snow, to the summit.

$BTC
@Yi He @CZ @Richard Teng

Tomorrow Vosh's speech will probably be confusing and unclear. I feel it leans dovish, but the Federal Reserve has already shown serious divisions. Still, we need to take into account Trump's views and the midterm elections. Also, tomorrow there will be revised data. Based on the past few years, they would cut by about 0.8–0.9 or 1.0 million; if they revise that much again tomorrow, then after a jab goes in, they pull it back, and if employment remains weak, the rate-cut expectations will kick in—then it should rise. Will 813 break? !

Tomorrow, depending on the situation, verify my foresight. Waiting for the big cake to pull back, then continue to go long!

To avoid missing the chance by selling the spot holdings I have, I will not move and not look. I'll just trade small contracts to make a little porridge money, and strictly draw lessons from what happened before.

Today Xiao Cui asked me whether the U.S. Dollar Index seems to have an inverse correlation with the big pizza and big cycle. I said, not exactly—I haven’t observed it. But what I say doesn’t count; I’ll analyze it myself. I made a chart of the U.S. Dollar Index and the big pizza’s price action. The moment I looked at it, I made an astonishing discovery: the large cycle actually does have an inverse correlation.

That means when the dollar is weak, the big pizza will strengthen, even entering a bull market. When the dollar is strong, the big pizza is likely to fall! Just look at the chart and you’ll know. Now the U.S. Dollar Index has broken 100 and is hovering around 99. If the dollar stays soft for a year, I think it’s possible—given that the U.S. Treasury issues more bonds and China remains strong! Does that imply that the big pizza will keep rising alongside the dollar’s weakness? In my view, yes.

$BTC
@Richard Teng @Yi He @CZ