Crypto-爱币斯坦

Why are they masters? That is the result of thousands of trials and tribulations. How much time, energy and cost have you spent on learning how to trade? If you have spent nothing or very little, then don't ask why others can get results but you can't. I practiced trading for more than eight hours a day. It took two hours a day to find targets. I researched four projects at the fastest every day, and sometimes I could only finish one. The whole team researched all the currencies of Binance and OK very clearly, which took more than half a year. Most people would be numb after just one look at the Google spreadsheet. With so much information, we think the basic information is clear at a glance. Next, we will study the K-line pattern, market maker methods, project structure and operation. This is also the reason why currencies are not shared often. The reason is simple. Olympic gold medalists only have a few minutes or one chance to go on stage, but they have studied and practiced hard for more than ten years! When you see people sharing coins, your cognition is not at the same frequency and level as theirs, and you can't even tell whether the person sharing is an expert or not. So many people often suffer a lot in this regard. They call it paying a lot of tuition fees, but in fact, they have wasted their hard-earned money. They wanted to change their fate in the coin circle, but ended up becoming fuel for others.

Learning is important, and practice is more important. There is a gap in the middle that needs to be crossed. It is very difficult to integrate knowledge and practice.

My confidence comes from the fact that the entire team has been deeply involved in the coin circle for many years and has experienced the trials and tribulations of the coin circle, and the confidence brought by continuous learning and practice. That's why I say that each coin has its own temper, because in my heart they are not just a string of letters but people with life and feelings.

It’s about inserting contract pins before entering, and now even large wheat spot is being inserted—contracts aren’t being inserted at all. What’s going on here?
$BTC
@Yi He @Richard Teng @CZ

In the investment research assignment I set for my students, I included both investment-research hype and lit, and then I also did further research on my own.

First, the conclusion: I think if lit can go head-to-head with hype, then at this current price there’s still a 5–15x upside. If operations aren’t kept up, a single wave is basically all you get—likely topping out around 10u, and it’s also possible it won’t even reach 10u before dropping.

I won’t go into the full research details here; it mainly comes down to on-chain data, operations, background, token structure, and so on.

I told him that if he thinks he can buy lit, then he should make his own trading plan, slowly accumulate, and at the same time be prepared for the possibility of a zero-out.

If you missed hype, lit might give you a chance to make up for it. With the lesson from hype, I won’t just analyze and then not get in. For example, in yesterday’s live teaching I analyzed lit, and I ended up going in on the short side—I went ahead with it. If you analyze, then you should act; otherwise, what’s the point of analyzing? Being right while trying to show off isn’t being a pro—only the money you actually make and keep in your own pocket makes you a real expert!

$HYPE $LIT
@Richard Teng @CZ @Yi He

BTC As predicted, it surged quickly and reached 643. I think 643 is achievable. 647 will break through to 655; if it’s extremely bullish, it could even reach 660. If the market maker wants to stir things up, it might push past 672. Then everyone will think the bull market is here, and they’ll keep selling the dip and break down below 60,000.

No matter how it moves, my long position at 62,500 is in hand. If it goes up a bit more, I earn a bit more.

China’s Long March 10th-2 rocket launch was successful, surpassing SpaceX’s Falcon 9. This makes me even more determined to short-spacex to death. China’s recovery is different from Musk’s. Musk’s system must land back on the launchpad; China’s is landing on ships at sea. This means they can build more ships, then keep launching and keep recovering—very high efficiency.

Why is the US-Iran conflict still going up? Because they’ve reached a tacit understanding. This time, the targets attacked are all very low-value. Trump can have a strong dollar and restrain Europe and Asia; the market has no real panic. But Trump has made money again. According to unverified reports, before his taco, his account had already completed adding to long positions in oil!
$BTC
@CZ @Richard Teng @Yi He

I predicted that the big pie would be on the rise. $LIT is gone—just made enough to cover some porridge money.

Originally, this order was for students to do their investment research. When I saw this coin, I analyzed it and did the work.

The ultimate form of contracts is high leverage—go all in with big positions and fight hard! A low win rate with a high risk-reward ratio

The ultimate form and the original form are the same. For example, I used to live on a salary of 20,000 yuan in a month. Then I got rich overnight and then crashed and died. After experiencing the romance and the ups and downs, the coldness of human relationships, seeing the prosperity of the world and also seeing betrayal and treachery, scheming against one another—in the end, when I started trading, I could steadily make tens of thousands of yuan in a month. My income was about the same, but my level, cognition, and mindset were completely different. This is the same principle: the ultimate form of contracts is the same as the beginner form, only the process in between is different.

I remember when I first started trading contracts—I used high leverage, and I died! And now I’m also using high leverage. You definitely can’t guess how many times I’m leveraged.

Coming back to the ultimate form of contracts, you need to go through the following process: Start with 1x, small positions. Increase leverage through continuous practice, increase position size, and your entry and exit points become more and more precise. If someone tells me their win rate is 90% or even 99%, I’ll know they’re not far from dying—because that remaining 1% will wipe them out to zero. The win rate of高手 (experts) won’t exceed 50%. When I first did spot trading, my price point error was about 1,000 points. Through practice I got it down to 500–200 points. And now I’m precise at 50–10.

Why practice to be as precise as possible? It’s to reduce losses and achieve a high risk-reward ratio. If you lose less, and the direction is right, then you can make more. In the middle, you’re continuously getting hit, so your win rate is low. But once you get on the train, you eat big—for example, if your stop loss costs 10 units, then once you’re correct you need to make 100 units. With that risk-reward ratio, even if your win rate is only 20%, you can still make money by doing it continuously. If you earn 100 once, it can let you endure 10 losses. A 20% win rate means you do 10 times, lose 8, win 2. Reaching this stage is the highest level and the ultimate form.

In general, trading contracts means: low win rate, high risk-reward ratio, high leverage, and going all in with heavy positions and hard execution. The low win rate is because you’ll keep trying and making mistakes. The high risk-reward ratio comes from using precision to reduce the stop-loss point range. Don’t trade contracts with low leverage—don’t trade contracts at all. Contracts are basically about using small to win big. Opening 1x or 2x doesn’t make sense! If you’ve identified the target, you must go in hard with heavy positions to make money. If your analysis is only precise but you don’t go heavy and hard, how can you make money? Only analyzing without trading is nonsense! You’re wasting your own energy. This isn’t blind confidence—it’s confidence that comes from repeatedly trading, under a trading system that stabilizes profits. Blind confidence is the best way to send yourself on the road to failure.

$BTC
@Yi He @Richard Teng @CZ

Watched for a while, and then after the 2.5 level, I shorted one hand with $LIT . Why was I shorting here? It’s obvious: after the drop and rebound, there was resistance at 2.5. He pushed up for a moment but didn’t break through. He held steady and didn’t drop. I looked at the volume and price action—saw that the momentum was weakening. So I could short!

@Yi He @Richard Teng @CZ

$LIT

LAB cost price is 0.01, and the institution’s price is even lower—below 0.08. That’s also why I do so much lab work. I’m not greedy at all; once I make a profit, I leave! After all, in my mind it’s as clear as day: the upside is very limited, while the downside is practically infinite. Once I get trapped, I must, immediately, cut losses—otherwise I’d lose a lot!

As for spot, it’s even more impossible to go stash coins at 10 oil. I wouldn’t even stash at 1u. I’m just waiting for it to drop. I can’t go short recklessly either, because when it drops hard, it’s unclear when it might randomly surge back. This project has GSR acting as a market maker, and various exchanges are also pushing it—OKX, MEXC, Gate, Binance Wallet.

If you only look at the price and trade altcoins, you’re basically walking straight into a dead end. Unless you make money and then run. If you try to “talk” (i.e., bargain/argue), then you’re dead!

Forget 2023–2025—so many coins have experienced drops of 100x during that period!
$LAB

The big coin is basically bottoming around 615. Here we should see a rebound—let’s see whether it can rise and break through 643 to 655. I don’t see 672. If it manages to break up to 680, then I think the bull market is coming—but that’s basically unlikely.

My previous prediction was that the big coin might drop to the 607–611 range. I planned to add some spot while entering long positions, but the market didn’t move the way I expected, so we need to go with the flow. If it can’t break down and keeps probing around 615 continuously, then it’s time to get on board.

The outflow from the big-coin ETF has been steadily decreasing. Selling pressure and buy-the-dip/backing power are clearly increasing—this is the signal.

After the hype was strong, lit started to gain momentum. As two leading DEX contract trading platforms, I guess they’re going to fight it out. Recently, it’s worth keeping an eye on them. I don’t recommend buying lit now—it’s already risen. When it first started moving up, I didn’t pay attention and missed the chance.
$BTC
$HYPE
$LIT
@CZ @Richard Teng @Yi He

Today Xiaoyu told me that $SPCX being included in the NASDAQ would make it go up. I said it would go down, and then I explained my reasoning. I had posted about my views on spcx before.

Then today, during an exercise to predict whether it would rise or fall tonight, he predicted it would go up and I predicted it would go down.

Then he lost the bet and treated me to a meal, which reminded me of how many on-site students learned to like making bets with me—basically ten bets out of nine, I lose. And I still got to sneak in and eat!

The trainees are gone, and I can finally trade with peace of mind and make money. Today I’ve at least earned 600 RMB less!

She told me in the office, “Coach, if you do rebates, you’ll make a fortune. With so many trainees under you, you just keep taking them and handling follow-up trading.” I said I don’t do rebates. What I want is to help people who are willing to learn and grow learn more, and in the end they can earn money themselves—by their own ability.

I earn a little less; it doesn’t matter. There’s money to be made all the time. My monthly goal of 600 RMB is still doable.

I have a feeling that Xiao Yu will be the second Zhongnan. Her foundation is solid. She used to teach herself before—she knows a bit about everything but it wasn’t a system. Training her is relatively quick for me. The most important thing is to make her learning systematic and structured, then ensure execution is solid. Let her not get involved with contracts—she’s still very obedient. She can hold herself back, doesn’t trade them anymore. Before, she lost hundreds of thousands, but now she’s able to let it go. That’s the right way.

Contracts are hell for beginners and for people who don’t have the ability. In the end, the result is that they lose it all. At the beginning, I said no one would believe me. Once they lose everything, they’ll believe it. Whether they can crawl back up and whether they’ll have the ability to turn things around later—I don’t know.

There are a few people who’ve supposedly gotten rich by trading contracts in lab. The short positions are probably already harvested. Now, when prices drop, they’re harvesting long positions instead. They get to enjoy the fees and then make you spit it back out.

Today I also looked at velvet—it’s too savage. It surged back to the point 0.43 where I opened my long position yesterday! Altcoins are amazing—how sturdy!
@CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng

Trump believes the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is over. After all that, you sign a memorandum—so it’s meant for us to see. But the U.S. stock market seems to have dropped, and the big cake hasn’t fallen much either—the big cake is already immune!

But don’t take it lightly. If the dealer suddenly starts dumping and triggers liquidation of contracts, you need to be careful!
@Yi He @Richard Teng @CZ
$BTC

Today I’m analyzing that the big coin is still bearish. The lower area is around 610, then it rebounds to break through 647. After that, if it breaks below 578, I drew a chart myself and want to see whether the next move will follow my prediction.

Earlier I opened a position at 629 and closed it at 625 because it reached a support level—there might be a rebound. Today, regarding the U.S. incident with Iran, the market only fell by about 500 points. The big coin has already become desensitized to the news, so no matter how big the news is going forward, it will be hard for it to suddenly surge or crash sharply, unless there are large buy and sell orders.
$BTC
@Yi He @CZ @Richard Teng

The chart below is all the trade history of my late-night session. It was past 8 a.m., and I was so sleepy I couldn’t take it anymore. I woke up and hit the take-profit level at 62524—I wanted to lock in the profit. But it hit 63700 instead and stopped me out. Then I took a smoke to calm down and started reviewing.

After the livestream from last night, when my short trade got stopped out, I analyzed the chart and thought it would drop. At 640, I got the signal. I put my phone away and entered at 63752 (1st). It bounced to 63904—I took the stop loss. Then I continued short at 63811 (2nd). It bounced to 63785. My hands were shaky, and I closed the short by mistake—an operation error. I then chased another short at 63711 (3rd).

A drop came afterward. Around 5–6 o’clock, there was news: the U.S. attacked Iran, and it dropped to the 632 support zone. Usually, market makers do something between 5 and 7. Combined with the bearish news, I didn’t exit. I held the position until 63622, took the loss on the rebound, and continued short at 63589 (4th). Stop loss at 63700. When the market closed at 8 a.m., the timing was just around a relative low point. I wanted to observe the post-close price action, but I was too sleepy and fell asleep, missing the chance to enter again.

I checked my account loss—it wasn’t too big, especially because my position size was heavy. Since I’m in a return-from-commission setup, I got back part of it.

Improvements:
1. Increase trade speed—be prepared in advance. When the signal is confirmed, act immediately.
2. After entering the trade, the phone screen goes black to avoid misoperations. Don’t enter again until after you reopen the phone—otherwise you’ll get stopped out.
3. When you’re sleepy or tired, close profitable positions directly. Making less profit is still better than turning it into a loss.

Every time I lose money, it’s a great opportunity to learn and grow—the tuition was worth paying!

This time luck was a bit off. My technical skills and ability are already maxed out, and I believe in my own strength. I’ll wait for the next opportunity. The market doesn’t lack opportunities—what it lacks is waiting! In futures trading, what you pursue is a high profit-to-loss ratio, not a high win rate. A real高手, a real expert, wouldn’t have a win rate above 50%. This time is good proof. If I took a 5th trade, got stopped out 4 times, and only made profit once, my win rate would be 20%—yet I can still make money.

Reviewing is very important. I will do it myself and I require every student to do it too. You can’t review properly because you’re trading based on instinct only, without a trading system. Instinct can’t be replicated. In the afternoon, when the students arrive, I’ll use this real trading example to explain the technical logic, the logic for predicting entry and exit points, execution methods, position sizing logic, market maker thinking, and so on. Although BTB investment research doesn’t teach futures and only teaches spot, the logic behind entry/exit points is the same between spot and futures—it's just that the exit point becomes the futures entry point.

$BTC
@Richard Teng @CZ @Yi He

You stand at the foot of the mountain and someone insults you—you’ll be very angry!
You stand partway up the mountainside and someone insults you—you can’t hear it clearly!
When you stand at the top of the mountain, someone insults you—you can’t see it, and you can’t hear it clearly! All you see in front of you is the beautiful scenery, and it brings to mind the scene of me night-climbing Mount Huashan to watch the sunrise!
So people’s worries and suffering are all because their height isn’t enough!
If you stand high enough, those petty troubles can’t even get into your sight!
@CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng

During the live broadcast, switching to lab saved me by a lot, going long with a big pie was a loss, and going to velvet was also a loss, and then I thought—if I’ve been drinking, I shouldn’t do a single order—so I opened a velvet short position. And with one shot, the loss I’d incurred was made back. So amazing!

I think it’s like heaven is looking out for me. I never expected velvet to fall this much! Going short on velvet—there was really no analysis. It was pure instinct: I thought it would drop, so I shorted it. And wow—the moment I opened the short, it just bled out for me!
@Yi He @CZ @Richard Teng