以娜

It seems that many people still do not understand the global significance of stablecoins and what relationship stablecoins have with U.S. Treasuries, so I’ll write an explanation.

■ The relationship between stablecoins (USDC /USDT) and the "U.S. dollar"

Everyone knows that USDC and USDT are pegged to the U.S. dollar at a 1:1 ratio, so every 1 stablecoin = the custodian institution promises to hold 1 dollar's worth of safe assets (cash or short-term U.S. Treasuries). The biggest significance is that the U.S. does not need to print more paper money; the dollar can be "exported" worldwide. As long as the world uses USDT /USDC, the dollar's hegemony becomes harder to replace. In other words, you and I are helping to globalize the dollar.

■ The relationship between stablecoins (USDC /USDT) and "U.S. Treasuries"

The issuers buy U.S. Treasuries with the fiat currency exchanged from users to ensure that stablecoins can be redeemed 1:1 for dollars. This means that the larger the issuance of stablecoins, the more buyers there are for U.S. Treasuries (that's right, you and I are the source of funding for U.S. Treasuries). Nowadays, Tether (USDT) has become one of the top ten buyers of U.S. Treasuries.

In conclusion: Global holdings of stablecoins = helping the U.S. solve its national debt problem. So the underlying goal is not to make Bitcoin great again, but for retail investors to quickly step in to solve our national debt problem! Do you understand? 🤭

■ Lastly, let’s talk about why every country is eager to issue stablecoins?

Every country wants to issue its own stablecoin to engage in the "sovereign currency defense battle," preventing people from entirely switching to dollar stablecoins and avoiding dollar colonialism from web2 directly leading to defeat in web3. Therefore, countries naturally want to quickly "upgrade" their own currencies to be "internet-ready," to preserve financial regulation and taxation; otherwise, payment and settlement will be fully taken over by USDT /USDC.

But this path is very difficult. What kind of benefits will a country offer to encourage people to use its own stablecoin? What kind of regulation will the country implement, half-forcing and half-promoting people to use its own stablecoin? I don't understand the subsequent topics deeply. I welcome any thoughts on this as I write this.

Woke up, feeling like sharing some of my thoughts on the future.

In the future, the boundary between bulls and bears will become relatively short, resembling larger bull and bear cycles that encompass more smaller bulls and bears.

The larger bulls follow the U.S. monetary easing period, while the larger bears follow the U.S. monetary tightening period. Note that I am not referring to interest rate cuts or hikes, but to true easing and tightening. This is because there is a time lag; interest rate cuts are a process that involves the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and banks, and this liquidity is released first into the U.S. stock market before flowing to other areas.

The smaller bulls and bears follow the global economy, which is a result of the big pie being U.S. stock market-centric. In short, instead of discussing bulls and bears, it's better to focus on the rhythm. This is difficult. My own method is to play with small amounts in Bitcoin contracts, preferably with profits made from small amounts, to feel the market, forcing myself to always follow the trend, learn, observe, and also learn to wait. Don't engage in day trading; instead, follow trends, and you will have a better sense of how to arrange your spot trades. Of course, if you are someone who gets overly excited, don't play with contracts.

The cryptocurrency space has become more difficult to navigate because it is more specialized and increasingly uncontrollable. The uncontrollable factor is that the macro environment is too exciting, and finance is undergoing a revolution.

1.0 We store things on our phones
2.0 We store things in the cloud
3.0 We store things on the blockchain

Especially moving forward, the U.S. stock market is gradually moving onto the blockchain. How will investors choose? How will you choose? I will move some positions into U.S. stocks, which have stable dividends and potential for appreciation, without the constant anxiety of 24/7 trading. You might say that crypto earns more, but risks and returns come from the same source, and think again, are you or most people currently making profits or losses?

Finally, there is the status of stablecoins and Bitcoin. Currently, only USDT and USDC are safe; what about the future? Countries are entering the battlefield. What do you think about government-issued currencies? You say USDT is pegged to the U.S. dollar, so it's the safest; that's true, the U.S. maintains its dominance and influence in web3 in this way. But what about the future? And has the U.S. dollar ever weakened? And let's not forget, this market is still so new, and de-dollarization has always been a global goal.

Furthermore, if Bitcoin ultimately aligns with gold, what will happen? Just take a look at the development chart of gold prices to find out. All I can say is to have patience. My view is that the most explosive growth has passed, and the next wave may take a while; keep accumulating.

Take better care of yourself, Cat Brother🥰

Meaningless, investment speculation fatigue period

In the new year, I wish everyone to live without regret and to know as they go.

Look, the belief has come😀🚀

When you’re dead, you don’t know you’re dead. The pain is felt by others.

The same thing happens when you’re stupid.

Think carefully, and you won't be afraid👌🏻

1. The market is always determined by marginal funds, not by existing funds.

2. Predicting the direction is not valuable; predicting the transmission path is very valuable.

3. Price levels can be adjusted, but capacity levels cannot.

4. Tail pricing is more important than the average value.

5. If assets move together in the same direction at a certain settlement point, first explain according to the settlement logic.

6. The previous step of the trading direction is the trading state; if the market structure and thickness remain unchanged, the direction is meaningless.

7. Policy choices come from constraints.

8. The market in a transitional state is determined by cash settlement and leveraged settlement.

9. Narratives are meant to be heard by people; prices only account for variables.

10. When you can't figure out what is happening, first look for the forced traders.

Just a sincere inquiry

JPMorgan currently predicts that the U.S. will raise interest rates in Q3 2027, and there are also suggestions for 2028. If this year (2026) is the low point for most assets, meaning this year is the time to gather good chips, then what assets are most suitable for traversing the interest rate hike cycle?

Give some advice please 🥺

Small Feelings

The US stock market has just started to fall, from 6888, 6850, 6800, 6750, 6712 … (around 6500 is probably the end? I don't know, otherwise I would also be bottom fishing😕) Bitcoin will definitely follow along, so be careful.

Betting on a daily line rebound, currently it looks like the position is also continuously going lower, many people should have entered the first batch of spot at around 75, the rebound positions look at 82, 838, 85, but I have to say if Bitcoin follows the US stocks down to 65 or 68, the rebound will most likely only see 79 at most, this depends on the sentiment at that time.

The market is sluggish and has already been at a low level, sometimes a shout suddenly pulls it up, so shorting doesn't really have much cost-effectiveness.

Both shorting and going long with stop-losses can hurt the principal, buying spot in batches if the US stocks are at least nearing the end of their drop, I also feel the timing isn't that great. However, right now the US stocks are deliberately killing shorts one moment and then killing longs the next, hoping this up and down can save Bitcoin, this kind of continual decline is really uncomfortable.

My hands are really itchy, don't take your phone when going out, leave your phone at home for your mom😀

So real 😂

I laughed😂

No talk about technology, just tonight...

I guess it's magincall. The US stock market fell sharply, and those leveraged hedge funds and institutions are about to face liquidation, so they need to add margin. Where does that margin come from? Of course, by selling other highly liquid assets. Who is the first choice? Of course, it's Bitcoin 😆

So it's normal for everyone to fall together; each institution has different things to cover and sell, and the final result is that all assets fall the same.

What's going to be the worst next? Various assets collectively margincal, collectively selling other assets to extract liquidity, the spiral begins...

@嘎嘎來了呦 My little understanding, returning to myself, I am more polite to that person.

The logic of炒比特幣 being better than美債 is more intentional. I shared before that allowing the美股 to go on-chain also means letting the global community catch the美股 at an unreasonably high level, which is quite direct.

As for黃金 and美債, I don't quite understand why there is that statement. The United States has not been on the gold standard for 55 years; the official gold reserves are about 8100 tons, mainly as a symbol of credit and a system anchor, and they hardly engage in active trading.

If you say Fed政策 → Real interest rate → USD strength and weakness → Gold price, it becomes the US → Pull gold → Solve美債, which is a reversal of cause and effect.

Moreover, the US government cannot use that 8100 tons to pay off debts.

More than that is conspiracy theory; I do not deny the possibility, but discussing conspiracy theories is a waste of time. You present one conspiracy, I present another, and it all sounds reasonable.

And to conclude that one should short gold because of this is a bit of a logical leap. The high price of gold is the result of global chaos working together. For many large funds, it is not an investment, but a real hedge.

🤭

The cryptocurrency community has a lot of negative energy, arrogance, and ignorance😀
But Brother Gan and Brother Bing are very nice and have a good perspective
Recommended for newcomers

A rare good thing in the square

The wise are gentle and warm like jade.

😂

In the past hour, the whole network exploded with $424, a bit cute 😆