小龙先生
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小龙先生
自然交易理论传承者，比特币行情分析师，建立了自然交易理论 、链上数据 和量价关系 的三维一体交易体系。梦想之一是做一名专业行情分析师和交易者，帮助更多小伙伴准确把握行情赚到钱。特别提醒：如果你不同意我分享的BTC行情预判和观点，你可以发表自己的观点，但不要对我进行人身攻击和诋毁谩骂，否则显得你的素质很差。
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🌏《Overview of Key Global Financial Market Events》
📅 August 18, 2026 (Tuesday)
Brothers and sisters, BTC broke above 64,000 on Monday—but there’s something a bit interesting about it.
1. Overnight Market Recap
BTC is currently around 64,350, up about 1.9% over the past 24 hours. The intraday high-low range was 62,830–64,560, and it has reclaimed the 64,000 level.
But one detail is worth noting: the roughly 60% rise on Monday was already completed before news of an Israel–Iran ceasefire was released. The final push may have been accelerated by the headline, but the trend had already started before the news came out—suggesting the underlying logic for this rally isn’t geopolitical, it’s macro.
Gold is around $4,445, WTI oil is about $83 per barrel. The Israel–Iran negotiations remain stuck, and the market has partially adjusted to that risk.
2. Key Things to Watch Today
🏠 U.S. housing data (20:30)
July’s new home starts and building permits will be released—key indicators for assessing the resilience of real estate in a high-interest-rate environment.
🏭 U.S. industrial production (21:15)
July industrial production data, which measures manufacturing momentum and ties directly to sentiment in U.S. equities.
📈 Home Depot (HD) earnings
Reported before the open. As a bellwether for home improvement and big-ticket consumption, it can validate consumers’ willingness to spend under high rates.
3. Main Focus This Week
Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference (Aug 20–22)
Fed Chair Waller’s remarks are the biggest variable this week. With September rate-hike odds currently around 35%, if Waller turns dovish, BTC could test 65,000+. If he unexpectedly sounds more hawkish, the 62,800 support level will face a challenge.
4. Quick Look at the Crypto Market
Liquidations over 24 hours: $186 million; shorts account for 79%
In the past 24 hours across the whole market, total liquidations reached $186 million. Short liquidations were $147 million—3.8 times the amount of long liquidations. For BTC specifically, liquidations were $94.82 million, with shorts making up 86%. Shorts were cleaned out.
5. Summary
BTC broke above 64,000, and shorts were liquidated. The real driver wasn’t geopolitical news—it was macro: softer inflation data reduced rate-hike expectations, and the dollar weakened.
Over the next three days, the market’s focus shifts to Jackson Hole. Before that, the 64,000–64,500 range will most likely be tested repeatedly.
Whether this breakout is real or not—wait for Jackson Hole to confirm. 🎯
📅 August 18, 2026 (Tuesday)
Brothers and sisters, BTC broke above 64,000 on Monday—but there’s something a bit interesting about it.
1. Overnight Market Recap
BTC is currently around 64,350, up about 1.9% over the past 24 hours. The intraday high-low range was 62,830–64,560, and it has reclaimed the 64,000 level.
But one detail is worth noting: the roughly 60% rise on Monday was already completed before news of an Israel–Iran ceasefire was released. The final push may have been accelerated by the headline, but the trend had already started before the news came out—suggesting the underlying logic for this rally isn’t geopolitical, it’s macro.
Gold is around $4,445, WTI oil is about $83 per barrel. The Israel–Iran negotiations remain stuck, and the market has partially adjusted to that risk.
2. Key Things to Watch Today
🏠 U.S. housing data (20:30)
July’s new home starts and building permits will be released—key indicators for assessing the resilience of real estate in a high-interest-rate environment.
🏭 U.S. industrial production (21:15)
July industrial production data, which measures manufacturing momentum and ties directly to sentiment in U.S. equities.
📈 Home Depot (HD) earnings
Reported before the open. As a bellwether for home improvement and big-ticket consumption, it can validate consumers’ willingness to spend under high rates.
3. Main Focus This Week
Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference (Aug 20–22)
Fed Chair Waller’s remarks are the biggest variable this week. With September rate-hike odds currently around 35%, if Waller turns dovish, BTC could test 65,000+. If he unexpectedly sounds more hawkish, the 62,800 support level will face a challenge.
4. Quick Look at the Crypto Market
Liquidations over 24 hours: $186 million; shorts account for 79%
In the past 24 hours across the whole market, total liquidations reached $186 million. Short liquidations were $147 million—3.8 times the amount of long liquidations. For BTC specifically, liquidations were $94.82 million, with shorts making up 86%. Shorts were cleaned out.
5. Summary
BTC broke above 64,000, and shorts were liquidated. The real driver wasn’t geopolitical news—it was macro: softer inflation data reduced rate-hike expectations, and the dollar weakened.
Over the next three days, the market’s focus shifts to Jackson Hole. Before that, the 64,000–64,500 range will most likely be tested repeatedly.
Whether this breakout is real or not—wait for Jackson Hole to confirm. 🎯
🚀《Alchemy Coin Trading System AI｜Today’s One Coin》
--- Will AKE break below the 0.0090 key support and accelerate downward before the unlock on August 21?
I’ve been paying close attention to AKE’s price action because the project team will unlock a batch of tokens on the 21st, which could be an opportunity to target a short on AKE.
At the moment, AKE has pulled back from a recent high of 0.0163. Now it has broken below the 0.0090 key support. A single 4H candle is down 12.4%, with a low of 0.00814.
The unlock of about 2.13 billion tokens on August 21 is a “veto-level” bearish catalyst hanging overhead.
📊 I. Candlestick Structure: Breakdown confirmation, structural damage
When AKE breaks below the 0.0090 support, it also falls through the Fibonacci 0.236 key level and the lower bound of the recent sideways structure. A breakdown means the bullish structure has been damaged. Measured from the 0.0163 high, the cumulative retracement is about 46%. It is now in a phase of “turning bearish.”
📌 Summary: 0.0090 has broken; the trend turns bearish.
🔗 II. On-chain Data: The whale stops propping up, but there hasn’t been a large-scale exit yet
AKE’s decline is not the result of the whale actively smashing the price. Instead, after the whale stopped propping up, the technical breakdown triggered a chain reaction lower. On-chain signals are worth watching: the long/short ratio is 0.50, shorts are extremely crowded, and retail traders are catching the falling trade to short; OI is about 40.63 million and remains stable without a major drop, meaning there hasn’t been widespread liquidation; the funding rate is mildly positive, with no signs of panic selling.
📌 Summary: The trend turns bearish, but the whale hasn’t fled in large scale.
💎 III. The Core Bearish Catalyst: The August 21 unlock is right around the corner
About 2.13 billion AKE tokens are about to be unlocked, adding new supply to the market. No matter how the whale pulled prices up beforehand, the supply shock from the unlock is mathematically impossible to avoid. With less than 3 days remaining until the unlock, it’s normal for capital to de-risk early.
📌 Summary: The unlock is the biggest bearish factor, and the time window is tight.
🎯 IV. Trading Strategy
The trend turns bearish, but don’t chase at the single-candle -12% low.
Reference strategy: wait for a rebound to 0.0095–0.010. After it confirms resistance, open shorts. Set stop-loss at 0.0105. First target: 0.0075. Second target: 0.0058. Alternatively, wait for a breakdown below 0.0081, then short from the right-side.
Around the unlock on August 21 is the core acceleration window.
--- Will AKE break below the 0.0090 key support and accelerate downward before the unlock on August 21?
I’ve been paying close attention to AKE’s price action because the project team will unlock a batch of tokens on the 21st, which could be an opportunity to target a short on AKE.
At the moment, AKE has pulled back from a recent high of 0.0163. Now it has broken below the 0.0090 key support. A single 4H candle is down 12.4%, with a low of 0.00814.
The unlock of about 2.13 billion tokens on August 21 is a “veto-level” bearish catalyst hanging overhead.
📊 I. Candlestick Structure: Breakdown confirmation, structural damage
When AKE breaks below the 0.0090 support, it also falls through the Fibonacci 0.236 key level and the lower bound of the recent sideways structure. A breakdown means the bullish structure has been damaged. Measured from the 0.0163 high, the cumulative retracement is about 46%. It is now in a phase of “turning bearish.”
📌 Summary: 0.0090 has broken; the trend turns bearish.
🔗 II. On-chain Data: The whale stops propping up, but there hasn’t been a large-scale exit yet
AKE’s decline is not the result of the whale actively smashing the price. Instead, after the whale stopped propping up, the technical breakdown triggered a chain reaction lower. On-chain signals are worth watching: the long/short ratio is 0.50, shorts are extremely crowded, and retail traders are catching the falling trade to short; OI is about 40.63 million and remains stable without a major drop, meaning there hasn’t been widespread liquidation; the funding rate is mildly positive, with no signs of panic selling.
📌 Summary: The trend turns bearish, but the whale hasn’t fled in large scale.
💎 III. The Core Bearish Catalyst: The August 21 unlock is right around the corner
About 2.13 billion AKE tokens are about to be unlocked, adding new supply to the market. No matter how the whale pulled prices up beforehand, the supply shock from the unlock is mathematically impossible to avoid. With less than 3 days remaining until the unlock, it’s normal for capital to de-risk early.
📌 Summary: The unlock is the biggest bearish factor, and the time window is tight.
🎯 IV. Trading Strategy
The trend turns bearish, but don’t chase at the single-candle -12% low.
Reference strategy: wait for a rebound to 0.0095–0.010. After it confirms resistance, open shorts. Set stop-loss at 0.0105. First target: 0.0075. Second target: 0.0058. Alternatively, wait for a breakdown below 0.0081, then short from the right-side.
Around the unlock on August 21 is the core acceleration window.
See translation
《小龙先生｜早晨问候与思考》
早安，小伙伴们☕️
交易最难的从来不是看懂市场，
而是管住自己的手和情绪。
行情越乱，越要慢下来，
机会越多，越要挑选，
不确定，就等待，
看不懂，就不动。
真正的高手，不是每天都在交易，
而是知道什么时候应该什么都不做，
把节奏掌握在自己手里🏃♀️
早安，小伙伴们☕️
交易最难的从来不是看懂市场，
而是管住自己的手和情绪。
行情越乱，越要慢下来，
机会越多，越要挑选，
不确定，就等待，
看不懂，就不动。
真正的高手，不是每天都在交易，
而是知道什么时候应该什么都不做，
把节奏掌握在自己手里🏃♀️
🌅《Mr. Dragon｜Morning Greetings and Reflections》
☕️Good morning, everyone!
The hardest part of trading has never been buying right—it’s holding on;
it’s not making money, but protecting the big profits you’ve earned!
The market hasn’t changed—don’t let fear scare you off;
the signals may have changed—don’t let greed pull you off course.
Use rules to fight human nature, and let data decide where to go and where to leave.
☕️Good morning, everyone!
The hardest part of trading has never been buying right—it’s holding on;
it’s not making money, but protecting the big profits you’ve earned!
The market hasn’t changed—don’t let fear scare you off;
the signals may have changed—don’t let greed pull you off course.
Use rules to fight human nature, and let data decide where to go and where to leave.
🧠《Mr. Long · Today’s Take》
What truly separates traders isn’t how accurate their predictions are—it’s whether they can keep following the system after they get it wrong.
If the market is rising, don’t blindly chase. If it’s falling, don’t panic too easily. What you should really watch is whether the trend, volume, and the relationship between price and volume have changed.
If there’s no signal, hold on. When a signal appears, execute.
Trading isn’t about always being right—it’s about using rules and discipline to stand up to human nature.
What truly separates traders isn’t how accurate their predictions are—it’s whether they can keep following the system after they get it wrong.
If the market is rising, don’t blindly chase. If it’s falling, don’t panic too easily. What you should really watch is whether the trend, volume, and the relationship between price and volume have changed.
If there’s no signal, hold on. When a signal appears, execute.
Trading isn’t about always being right—it’s about using rules and discipline to stand up to human nature.
《Three-in-One Trading System | BTC Morning Market Analysis》
---Direction to choose; both long and short signals are unclear, so should we wait and see?
I asked the three-dimensional AI to analyze the current BTC chart, and the result is exactly the same as my own assessment. In fact, it has replicated the core ideas of the three-in-one trading system I created, as well as each of the judgment dimensions, and quantified them.
Don’t believe it? Watch the video of the three-in-one trading system AI analysis that I just recorded
---Direction to choose; both long and short signals are unclear, so should we wait and see?
I asked the three-dimensional AI to analyze the current BTC chart, and the result is exactly the same as my own assessment. In fact, it has replicated the core ideas of the three-in-one trading system I created, as well as each of the judgment dimensions, and quantified them.
Don’t believe it? Watch the video of the three-in-one trading system AI analysis that I just recorded
🚀《Yao Coin Trading System AI | Today’s One Coin》
---Selected “almost-yao” coin $BMT : After going sideways for 63 days, it broke out on rising volume; 90.8% of the float is in extremely tight control!
Among the 6 candidates scanned during today’s sideways breakout check, BMT is the only one that perfectly meets the “dual conditions” criteria. Its chart closely matches the structure of the period just before TUT and BICO’s launch.
📊1. Order/Position Structure: 90.8% Extreme Tight Control
The top 10 addresses of BMT control 90.8%, making it the only candidate above 90% today. The pre-TUT order structure was 92%, putting BMT in the same ballpark. Only a strongly controlled setup has the power for a violent rally.
📌Summary: The structure supports a pull-up.
🔗2. Long/Short Structure: Balanced, not FOMO
BMT’s long/short ratio is 0.95, meaning the market is in balance. Unlike MUBARAK’s crowded longs at 1.74, BMT’s long/short balance implies there’s room for short-squeeze moves; crowded longs also mean higher risk of chasing the price.
📌Summary: Healthy long/short structure, no overheating.
💎3. Sideways Accumulation: 63 Days, the Most Sufficient
BMT has gone sideways for 63 days, with an amplitude of 26.8%—the longest sideways period and the most充分蓄力 among today’s candidates. The longer the consolidation, the larger the space after the breakout.
📌Summary: Fully accumulated; breakout power is worth expecting.
🎯4. BMT is the best “almost-yao” lookalike right now
Among today’s 6 candidates, please refer to the scanned Telegram screenshot (Figure 2): BMT scores excellently in all three areas—tight float control (90.8%), long/short balance (0.95 equilibrium), and sideways accumulation (63 days). Its profile is the closest to the structure before TUT’s launch.
However, it has already surged 141%—that’s the only risk point. The best way to enter is not to chase, but to wait for a pullback confirmation, or to follow on the right side after breaking the previous high of 0.041.
⚙️5. What is the best trading strategy right now?
Conservative traders can wait for a pullback to 0.022–0.023 and enter after it stabilizes; stop loss at 0.0195; targets at 0.038–0.041.
If it breaks out above 0.041 on volume and holds steady, then chase longs on the right side; targets are above 0.05.
❤️ The job of the Yao Coin Trading System AI is not to insist on predictions, but to follow the market—continuously validating and adjusting.
#BMT #YaoCoinTradingSystemAI #SidewaysBreakoutPattern #OrderFlowAnalysis #Crypto
---Selected “almost-yao” coin $BMT : After going sideways for 63 days, it broke out on rising volume; 90.8% of the float is in extremely tight control!
Among the 6 candidates scanned during today’s sideways breakout check, BMT is the only one that perfectly meets the “dual conditions” criteria. Its chart closely matches the structure of the period just before TUT and BICO’s launch.
📊1. Order/Position Structure: 90.8% Extreme Tight Control
The top 10 addresses of BMT control 90.8%, making it the only candidate above 90% today. The pre-TUT order structure was 92%, putting BMT in the same ballpark. Only a strongly controlled setup has the power for a violent rally.
📌Summary: The structure supports a pull-up.
🔗2. Long/Short Structure: Balanced, not FOMO
BMT’s long/short ratio is 0.95, meaning the market is in balance. Unlike MUBARAK’s crowded longs at 1.74, BMT’s long/short balance implies there’s room for short-squeeze moves; crowded longs also mean higher risk of chasing the price.
📌Summary: Healthy long/short structure, no overheating.
💎3. Sideways Accumulation: 63 Days, the Most Sufficient
BMT has gone sideways for 63 days, with an amplitude of 26.8%—the longest sideways period and the most充分蓄力 among today’s candidates. The longer the consolidation, the larger the space after the breakout.
📌Summary: Fully accumulated; breakout power is worth expecting.
🎯4. BMT is the best “almost-yao” lookalike right now
Among today’s 6 candidates, please refer to the scanned Telegram screenshot (Figure 2): BMT scores excellently in all three areas—tight float control (90.8%), long/short balance (0.95 equilibrium), and sideways accumulation (63 days). Its profile is the closest to the structure before TUT’s launch.
However, it has already surged 141%—that’s the only risk point. The best way to enter is not to chase, but to wait for a pullback confirmation, or to follow on the right side after breaking the previous high of 0.041.
⚙️5. What is the best trading strategy right now?
Conservative traders can wait for a pullback to 0.022–0.023 and enter after it stabilizes; stop loss at 0.0195; targets at 0.038–0.041.
If it breaks out above 0.041 on volume and holds steady, then chase longs on the right side; targets are above 0.05.
❤️ The job of the Yao Coin Trading System AI is not to insist on predictions, but to follow the market—continuously validating and adjusting.
#BMT #YaoCoinTradingSystemAI #SidewaysBreakoutPattern #OrderFlowAnalysis #Crypto
📊《Market Research｜The List of the Biggest Lies in Crypto in 2025》
---Who was the most outrageous person calling for BTC? Who is actually the biggest “scammer” in the crypto world?
In 2025, the crypto market is lacking nothing when it comes to BTC target prices like “200,000, 250,000, or 500,000.”
I’ve compiled these “scammers” who called BTC the most outrageously in 2025 into a photo that “got you fooled.” Please see the picture.
Saylor called for 150k+; Arthur Hayes called for 200k–250k; PlanB’s S2F model continues to point to even higher prices; institutions such as Bitwise, VanEck, and Bernstein also provided targets like 180k–200k or even higher.
So what happened? Every single predicted person and institution got slapped in the face!
BTC did reach new highs, but the highest price only went to about $126,000.
Predictions can be wrong, but they can’t be too exaggerated and unrealistic!
What’s really worth revisiting is: why did so many people collectively overestimate in the same direction?
Macroeconomic liquidity, institutional buy orders, and the halving narrative are all real—but the market never moves toward your target price just because the “logic” is correct.
The most dangerous trading mistake isn’t getting the direction wrong—it’s getting the direction right, then mistakenly assuming the price must be right too.
That’s what this chart is truly worth discussing.
Do you think the people and institutions in the image are the biggest “scammers” in the crypto world?
---Who was the most outrageous person calling for BTC? Who is actually the biggest “scammer” in the crypto world?
In 2025, the crypto market is lacking nothing when it comes to BTC target prices like “200,000, 250,000, or 500,000.”
I’ve compiled these “scammers” who called BTC the most outrageously in 2025 into a photo that “got you fooled.” Please see the picture.
Saylor called for 150k+; Arthur Hayes called for 200k–250k; PlanB’s S2F model continues to point to even higher prices; institutions such as Bitwise, VanEck, and Bernstein also provided targets like 180k–200k or even higher.
So what happened? Every single predicted person and institution got slapped in the face!
BTC did reach new highs, but the highest price only went to about $126,000.
Predictions can be wrong, but they can’t be too exaggerated and unrealistic!
What’s really worth revisiting is: why did so many people collectively overestimate in the same direction?
Macroeconomic liquidity, institutional buy orders, and the halving narrative are all real—but the market never moves toward your target price just because the “logic” is correct.
The most dangerous trading mistake isn’t getting the direction wrong—it’s getting the direction right, then mistakenly assuming the price must be right too.
That’s what this chart is truly worth discussing.
Do you think the people and institutions in the image are the biggest “scammers” in the crypto world?
《Coin AI Trading System｜Today’s One Coin》
Coin AI scanned two bullish coins: MUBARAK & BMT。
If you had to choose between the two, which one would you pick?
Coin AI told me that if it’s a must to go long one of MUBARAK and BMT, it recommends choosing MUBARAK。
Why is MUBARAK the preferred pick? What’s the logic?
Take a look at the screenshot below—you’ll know why it’s the top choice.
Coin AI scanned two bullish coins: MUBARAK & BMT。
If you had to choose between the two, which one would you pick?
Coin AI told me that if it’s a must to go long one of MUBARAK and BMT, it recommends choosing MUBARAK。
Why is MUBARAK the preferred pick? What’s the logic?
Take a look at the screenshot below—you’ll know why it’s the top choice.
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