Dolphin晴竹

🥳✨$BNB ✨TO THE MOON🚀

📷 @Richard Teng @Yi He #BNBChain

Fed Governor Waller just said this morning that if core CPI comes in at 0.3, they’d consider adding 50 basis points in December. A few hours later, CPI actually printed at 0.3, while headline CPI also came in above expectations at 0.4. That was an incredibly precise call.

Gold plunged more than $100 in a day, closing just above 4030. It gave back the entire rally to 4140 on Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to just shy of 5%. A December rate hike is now all but certain, and some people are even betting on 50 basis points.

$BTC got hit too, touching a low of 72727 yesterday and now hovering around 73700. Anyway, the entire market was paying for that one number last night.

U.S. stocks open as usual today. The bond market is closed, and there’s no new data. The next thing to watch is the PPI on the 13th.

$BTC #黄金 #US stocks

The drama got even wilder on day two—I really didn’t expect it to escalate further.

Nvidia fell from Friday’s close of $186 to $167, down 17% in five trading days. On Monday, it was still the board investigating itself; on Tuesday, Trump said the FBI was getting involved too. There were also reports that Alice Huang had handled the shipment of $7.5 billion worth of chips to China, and Microsoft overtook Nvidia in market cap.

$BTC also kept sliding after the CPI report, bottoming out at 72727. ETH hit a low of 2006.

The next big event is still the earnings report on the 17th.

$BTC $ETH #Nvidia

It fell 11% in a day. $ZEC even dipped to 994 at its lowest, and only recovered to around 1038. I really didn’t expect it to drop this much in a single day.

Just 24 hours ago, it was around 1170—that’s a drop of over $130 in a day. I haven’t seen any bad news specific to ZEC, and CPI came in above expectations. Several post-market reviews said it was simply that risk appetite across the market had cooled, with high-volatility assets getting hit first. The gains from the NU7 rollout had already been completely erased, and today’s drop pushed it down another level.

$BTC didn’t fare much better, sliding to around 73880 after the data came out. It briefly broke below 1000 intraday, then recovered. The area around 1031 was the support level mentioned earlier, and the price is now right around there.

PPI is due Friday, and the rate decision is on December 9.

$ZEC #CPI

Well, core CPI landed right at 0.3%.

October CPI, which we'd been waiting all day for, came in at 0.4% overall and 0.3% core—both 0.1 percentage point above expectations. I was hoping the numbers would come in a little cooler, but they landed right on the threshold Waller just set today: if core hits 0.3%, a 50-basis-point hike should be considered.

The probability of a rate hike in December is already above 96%. After the data came out, $BTC slid to around 73880, with a daily low of 73524.

PPI is due Friday, but the real main event is the December 9 rate decision.

$BTC #CPI

$PEPE is up nearly 30% this month, while $BTC has fallen almost 10% over the same period.

The broader market has barely moved today, with $BTC still hovering above 74,000. The whole market is waiting for tonight’s CPI release at 21:30. The meme coin sector, though, has already started moving on its own: $PEPE is up more than 5% today and over 13% this week. DOGE and FLOKI are also up today.

The more the broader market lies flat, the more money flows into places like this. Once tonight’s CPI numbers come out, we’ll know whether this is a genuine rotation or just more noise.

$PEPE $BTC

It’s been three days since the Nvidia story broke. I initially thought it was just some gossip, but the more I dug, the more there was to uncover, so I decided to lay out the timeline.

On Sunday, the board announced an independent investigation into whether Jensen Huang had become a target of a foreign intelligence agency. In an internal letter, he admitted to having an affair and apologized. He’ll remain CEO, and the board said it had no reason to believe national security or company secrets had been compromised.

At Monday’s open, the stock plunged to $170.24, down 7.3% and its lowest level since March. The Nasdaq rose 2.5% that day, and Nvidia was the only one of the Magnificent Seven to fall. It closed at $178.67, down 4.27%, wiping out about $190 billion in market value in a single day.

At the heart of the story is Megaspeed, a Singapore data center company that bought around $4.8 billion worth of Nvidia equipment over two years. According to U.S. intelligence reports, one of its executives, Alice Huang, was recruited to help route restricted chips into China. But these are just claims in reports: no one has been charged, and nothing has been confirmed. Nvidia says it investigated last year and found no evidence of any such diversion.

Not long after Monday’s close, another development: the Rosen law firm filed a shareholder class-action lawsuit, accusing the company of downplaying its relationship with Megaspeed. The amount of damages sought hasn’t been determined yet, and the deadline to be appointed lead plaintiff is January 8 next year.

The days ahead are packed: tomorrow, the 11th, is the deadline to respond to the chairs of three House committees; earnings are due on the 17th, followed by a closed-door briefing on the 18th. There’s no timetable for the investigation itself.

#英伟达 #USStocks

$BTC Weekly candle closed at 74,968, failing to hold above the 50-week moving average at 75,488.

After reclaiming this level on September 20, the price stayed above it for seven straight weeks. Then Sunday’s weekly candle broke right through it. It’s only 0.7% away, which doesn’t look like much, but I feel this means something different.

Liquidations hit $1.15 billion over 24 hours, including $1.04 billion in long positions. The price is still hovering around 74,500, a fair way below that level.

Galaxy says reclaiming it within a month would still count; if the price falls further, the next level to watch is June’s low of 59,517.

October’s CPI figures come out at 21:30 tonight, right at this crucial moment.

$BTC #CPI

691 million tokens $XRP all flowed into exchanges within 24 hours, nearly $900 million—the biggest single-day inflow since 2024.

The price also fell back to 1.08, its lowest since August 20. Depositing tokens doesn’t mean they were all sold, but seeing so many moved to exchanges during a downturn doesn’t feel great.

Overnight, US stocks rebounded across the board. The S&P 500 had its best day since April, and Nvidia recovered half of its 8% drop after the open, closing down 4.3%. Crypto didn’t keep up; $BTC is still hovering around 75,000.

$XRP $BTC #USStocks

Everything’s up, and Nvidia’s the only one down. This really is a bizarre sight.

The Nasdaq is up 2.5% tonight, AMD is up more than 9%, Broadcom is up more than 6%, and chip stocks are rebounding across the board. But Nvidia opened with a straight-up plunge to $170, its lowest level since March. It was down more than 7% at one point during the day—the only one of the Magnificent Seven in the red.

Even last Thursday, when everyone got clobbered together, it didn’t stand out this much. Today, everyone else has clawed back their losses, leaving Nvidia all by itself.

There’s no new news, really. That survey from Sunday is still hanging over it, and earnings aren’t due until the 17th.

$BTC is still hovering below 75,000. Either way, it’s not the main character tonight.

$BTC #英伟达 #USstocks

Nvidia is at 178 bucks premarket, down more than 4 points from Friday's close. I thought the news would have had time to sink in overnight and that it might hold up a bit better premarket.

China also issued a statement today, saying the so-called espionage allegations were unfounded. But with the price where it is premarket, a lower open at 10:30 p.m. tonight is pretty much inevitable.

Index futures are moving the other way: the S&P is up 0.47%, and the Nasdaq is up 0.33%. Nvidia is the only one sliding. SanDisk is at 820 premarket, Micron at 685; both are still hovering near Friday's close.

$BTC is still hovering above 74,000, and can't get back above 75,000. Gold briefly surged back above 4,100 today, and is now in the 4,090s.

$BTC #黄金 #Nvidia

I really didn’t expect this bombshell to come out of Nvidia. On Sunday night, the board issued a statement saying it would launch an independent investigation into whether Jensen Huang had become a target of a foreign intelligence agency. In an internal letter, he admitted to having an affair and apologized, but will remain CEO.

The gossip is one thing; what’s really making the market uneasy is what came next: Megaspeed, the company named in the investigation, bought $4.8 billion worth of Nvidia chips over two years. The probe is looking into whether it helped restricted chips make their way into China. Several House committee chairs want him to testify behind closed doors by November 18. Nvidia reports earnings on November 17, and NVDA closed at 186.64 last Friday, down 8.8% for the week.

The AI sector had just taken another hit from the data center permitting narrative, and now this happens to the industry leader. Tonight’s 22:30 open will be the first trading session since the news broke.

#英伟达 #US stocks

After breaking below 75k, it hasn't climbed back above that level since this morning. $BTC is still hovering around 74.8k, and $ETH is grinding around 2,140. This morning I thought it was just a wick, but it's still down here at noon.

The weekend sell-off was attributed in this morning's post to the midterms, but AI was also half the story. On Sunday night, Nvidia announced an independent investigation into CEO Jensen Huang over his ties to an executive at a chip buyer accused of espionage. Congress also wants him to give a closed-door briefing on the 18th. The leader of the AI narrative has run into trouble of its own, and the aftershocks of last Thursday's AI stock plunge haven't subsided yet.

Last night, $850 million was liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours, mostly long positions.

$BTC $ETH

Is this the reward for staying up late?
I awakened the top-tier trader system..

The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 25—extreme fear, for the first time in three months.

It was still at 50 the day before yesterday, then plunged 25 points in two days. ETFs saw $412 million in outflows on Friday alone, and $1.28 billion for the week. BlackRock’s fund accounted for $403 million of that.

But $BTC is still hovering around 76,000, basically unmoved all day. It briefly dipped to 74,800 on Friday, then bounced right back.

On one hand, the index keeps sliding; on the other, the price is going nowhere. The market tonight looks seriously conflicted.

#BTC #Market analysis

Russia says retail investors can buy crypto now. I thought it was a big deal, but it turns out you can buy at most 300,000 rubles per year through each channel, roughly $3,700—less than 0.05 of $BTC . You also have to pass an exam before buying.

There are only three you can buy: $BTC , ETH, and USDT. The rules take effect on November 17, and qualified investors have no limit.

With a limit like that, anyone who really wants to stock up on crypto will have to find another way.

#BTC #MarketAnalysis

Brent fell from 113 to a little over 93 this week, then bounced back to around 99. It was enough to make my head spin.

It plunged 9% in a single day on Wednesday, then bounced back for two days straight on Thursday and Friday. Even so, it was still down more than 10% for the week—the worst week since 2020. After the election, the market figured things might ease between the U.S. and Iran, and all the gains from the earlier rally were wiped out at once. The global surplus of 1.4 million barrels a day in October was also weighing on prices.

Interestingly, reports of tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz kept coming, and shipping capacity is still below 60% of normal. That helped keep prices from plunging further. WTI was much the same, hovering around 91.

#原油 #MarketAnalysis

Chip stocks bounced back on Friday, but Bitcoin stayed put. The contrast has me a little confused.

The Nasdaq rose more than 1%, and AMD surged 11% in a single day. After plunging 5.5% on Thursday, it at least clawed back some ground on Friday. But $BTC spent the whole night bouncing between 75,000 and 76,000, and closed around 76,000—about where it ended Thursday. In other words, chip stocks did their thing, while Bitcoin barely budged.

The 75,600 level is an awkward one: it was about where the market bottomed on election night, and it’s also roughly where the 50-week moving average sits. Bitcoin barely held above it at Thursday’s close, then dipped below it again during Friday’s session. After the nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, the odds of a rate hike in December had climbed to nearly 80%—hardly good news for risk assets.

U.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend, but crypto markets aren’t. For the next couple of days, Bitcoin is on its own.

#BTC #MarketAnalysis

An address had been dormant for over a year, then suddenly moved yesterday.

Back when the price was around $89K, it deposited 5,699 coins into Binance and then went quiet. Over the past two days, it withdrew 3,009 coins in five transactions—worth around $228 million. When it withdrew them, $BTC was at $75K–$76K.

The person who deposited the coins near the top has now come back and taken half of them out. A withdrawal doesn’t necessarily mean they’re about to do anything; the coins are now in their own wallet and temporarily off the market.

Coming across something like this in the middle of the night is more interesting than watching the candlestick chart.

#BTC #On-chain data

165,000 vs. 65,000—the nonfarm payrolls figure came in at more than double expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.

When the data came out at 21:30, $BTC dipped at first, then bounced back. It’s still hovering around 76,000. This will probably push expectations for a December rate hike higher again.

What a rough day. Chip stocks dragged the market down this morning, around $1 billion in long positions were liquidated in crypto over the course of the day, and now the nonfarm payrolls report has delivered another blow. Well, at least the 75,000 level held today.

CPI next Tuesday, at 21:30.

#BTC #MarketAnalysis