牧羊的加密日记

【Up 30%, but the money is leaking out—today a divergence in this sector is easy to overlook】

Recently, certain concept tokens have been rallying quite a bit, and some individual picks have even seen 24-hour gains exceeding 30%.

But look at a set of data: in the same sector, the amount of holdings over the past 24 hours has fallen by 14% to 34%. Prices are pushing higher, while holdings are moving lower—these two signals run in opposite directions.

This usually means: things look lively on the surface, but the funds driving this upswing have already chosen to lock in profits rather than keep pressing their bets. The money is leaving; the story is still there. Historically, this kind of structure often marks the peak of short-term hype, not the starting point of a new round of the rally.

Instead of chasing the gains, ask first: is the money still there?

There’s another phenomenon worth watching.

On a different chain, during the same period, some small-cap tokens have begun showing signs of unusual fund flows, with 24-hour gains in the 15%–20% range. These targets tend to share a characteristic: the price hasn’t pulled off extreme upside, and the holdings data doesn’t show obvious anomalies. This looks like a natural diffusion, where capital moves from the leading sectors out toward the periphery.

Whether this diffusion can continue ultimately hinges on whether BTC can hold steady. The 63.8K level has already been tested face-to-face today. If it can’t be defended, the structures of all the altcoins need to be reassessed.

Today is not a time to increase positions across the board—it’s a moment to tighten the lines and wait for confirmation.

For market observation only.

BTC narrow-range consolidation, direction will wait for catalysts

BTC spot is around 63.9K; over the past 24h it has edged slightly lower. Both OI and funding rates are contracting in tandem—suggesting the market is waiting, and nobody is rushing to take a bet.

Passive liquidation of shorts is the main feature of this pullback. The liquidation amount is about 3 times that of longs, but there is no sign of panic on the spot side; overall structure is still fairly healthy.

Meme coins remain the main outlet for capital flows. GIGGLE, boosted by a CZ post, jumped 28% in a single day. Early-stage L2 coins also see frequent abnormal moves, indicating that existing liquidity is searching for an exit within the market.

BTC is currently consolidating with reduced volume in the 63.8K–65K range. A short-term breakout likely needs a new catalyst; until then, the market will probably keep trading sideways.

For market observation only; not investment advice.

$BULLA This is only just the beginning

BSC’s MEME—when we positioned it earlier, it was because it’s an Alpha that’s listed on Binance, but basically there aren’t many pools left.

There are only a few hundred thousand U in the pool, but the OI on Binance is over 10 million U. This is clearly a perfect target for a tightly controlled setup.

The meaning is also great: king of the bull market. Plus yesterday CZ also said he wants to buy MEME coins. The so-called right timing, right place, and right circumstances are all there—so trust yourself and wait for the wind to come!

Yesterday, around 1200, I closed the long position of $SNDK . Today it’s pulled up to 1300+. My thigh hurts a bit, but no way—I can only follow discipline. There’s no need to be anxious in crypto, because what crypto lacks the least is opportunities!

$BTC and ETH—feels like they’ve been a bit low-profile lately. Back then, everyone played with low-cap coins and mainstream coins. Now everyone’s playing with US stocks and low-cap coins. When the volatility in US stocks comes down, the crypto market should enter a very good bottoming phase—the moment to buy the dip. What’s meant to come will come.

BTC holds steady around 64K, but there is still some hesitation at this level.

On the 4-hour chart, it saw about a -1.5% pullback, while OI (open interest) contracted at the same time. The forced covering amount of shorts is 3 times that of longs—this isn’t a bearish offensive; it’s more like normal short-term profit-taking after shorts in the overhead pressure zone passively get liquidated.

The funding rate stays around 0.009%, which is mildly bullish but not extreme. 63.8K is the strong support in the recent period—only if it breaks will the outlook shift to a bearish mindset. 65K is the short-term watershed level; holding above it counts as a confirmed recovery.

Right now, both bulls and bears are waiting—waiting for a directional signal.
Just for market observation.

BTC moved through a converging structure all day.

In the morning, I expected neutral, anticipating price action ranging between 63K–64.5K. In reality, it closed at 64.8K, up about 1.3% for the day. It neither broke below the 63K support nor managed to decisively reclaim the 64.5K resistance—direction was right, but the magnitude was slightly stronger than expected.

Key data: Open interest (OI) increased moderately throughout the day (at 20:19, 49.03B; 4h +2.86%). The funding rate was 0.0081%, which is healthy and slightly bullish. Long/short positioning is close to 1:1 and well-balanced. Consistent with my morning read—both sides are waiting; nobody has made the first move.

One signal worth noting: the altcoin cooling wave fully played out in the evening. COTI flipped from +56% in the morning to a drop, and Meme coins like KOMA/UAI also formed clear high-level distribution patterns. My earlier note about “market momentum cooling down” now appears accurate.

Tomorrow, watch whether 64.5K can be broken effectively. If it holds above and breaks through, you may want to look at RWA-related names like ONDO. If it falls back again below 63.5K, that would indicate the push lacks enough conviction and the ranging structure should continue.

Overall, the market is in a waiting-for-catalyst phase, with no clear directional signal yet.

Just market observation, not investment advice.

Two noteworthy counterfeit-watch directions.

FET — In the AI agent sector, FET is currently the only listed asset in the entire crypto market that shows negative funding rates yet is still rising with positive momentum. Funding rate: -0.0023, meaning shorts are continuously paying longs, while the net long-biased capital inflow remains in a mild range. The position size is about $690 million and does not appear overheated. The AI agent/Agent narrative is still intact. After the merger of FET and AGIX, the logic for computing-power integration remains incomplete. In the 4-hour observation range of 0.78–0.84, a pullback that holds can be watched for potential continuation.

AKE — Up 7.5% in the past 24 hours, ranking #1 on the overall leaderboard. The sideways digestion over the last 4 hours has not occurred at the highs. Position size is $119 million, with continued inflow. On-chain, there are about 3,000 addresses with OTC batch distribution records, and the true float seems to be rotating. Funding rate: 0.0099, which looks healthy. However, there are also large transfers on-chain to exchanges, suggesting the structure of the coins is not completely clean. Wait for a pullback confirmation in the 0.0038–0.0040 range, then reassess.

During the market’s consolidation phase, the persistence of these strong counterfeit leaders is an important window for observing capital sentiment. The above is only for market observation and does not constitute investment advice.

US stocks cratered tonight. The Dow recorded its largest single-day drop in 15 months, and the fear index VIX jumped straight to 20.63.

But Bitcoin is still sitting at 64,000 and hasn’t collapsed.

This isn’t because the bulls are that strong. It’s because the liquidation on both sides—over 700 million—has already settled and the pressure has been digested. The real test comes later: what kind of signals the Fed gives. Inflation is still at 4.1%, rate-cut expectations have repeatedly been pushed down, and geopolitics on that front (again—fires in Iran) has also pushed oil prices above 87.

In the short term, the key is whether 63.5K can hold. If it holds, the market will keep pricing the idea that Bitcoin is tougher than US stocks. If it doesn’t, don’t expect otherwise.

Just for market observation.

Who moves first loses out. BTC is stuck below 64K, consolidating on shrinking volume; positions are only slightly increasing, and fees are hugging the zero line. Both the long and short sides are adding positions, but nobody dares to make the first move—this is a classic “gathering strength” setup.

The key levels are clear: resistance at 64.5K—only a real breakout counts if it breaks; support at 63K—if it’s lost, it’ll go to around 62.5K to find follow-through and bids. Price swings within the range are just noise; wait for direction to emerge before acting.

Meanwhile, altcoins are sending heavier signals: a batch of previously popular narrative themes has collectively cooled off, overheated names are starting to fade, and overall risk appetite is contracting. With the broader market moving sideways and smaller coins staying cold first, it suggests capital is withdrawing heat and waiting for a catalyst.

Today, just watch two numbers: 64.5K and 63K. Whichever breaks first, that’s the direction.

For market observation only.

In the morning, we talked about volatility. The market moved in a volatile-but-stronger manner.

Recap: BTC opened at 63.1K, dipped to an intraday low of 62.9K, then tested up to a high of 64.7K, and closed at 64.2K—up 1.9%. Positions were increased moderately, fees look healthy, and the balance between longs and shorts is basically even, with no extreme sentiment. 65K still hasn’t been broken; it remains a story within the current range.

Prediction check: What we provided in the early session was neutral volatility. The direction was right, but the magnitude was more conservative than expected. The lows slightly broke below the lower bound of expectations; later in the day it pushed up again to the upper bound. This is normal back-and-forth within a consolidation framework—not a breakout.

For alts, there’s more worth noting. In the earlier phase, the heat cooled across a dozen or so popular tokens. The win rate for high-level “relay” plays clearly dropped. Capital hasn’t been idle—it has shifted into cleaner structural areas. DeFi and a few accumulation/ready-to-run names saw their positions increase in sync; it looks like real absorption rather than pure speculation. On the other hand, the semiconductor sector tokens have shown a second consecutive day of volume-price divergence: price is falling while positions are rising. Contrarian capital has been exiting. This kind of divergence is usually not a good sign.

Outlook for tomorrow: Resistance remains around 65K. Only by standing above it and shaking near the upper edge can the range be considered opened. Support below is around 63K; if it breaks down, the center of gravity of the range may shift lower. Tonight there will be macro events coming out. Most likely, price action will first grind, and then direction will be set once the news hits.

Risk warning: We’re in a phase where high-level assets see a batch “cooling off,” and the risk-reward for relay trades is low. For tokens with large unlocks, watch for pullback risk. When volatility increases, keep your hands off.

For market observation only.

Imitation Coin Watch: the frenzy is cooling off, structural opportunities are emerging

Today there’s a subtle shift in the market: the “imitation” coins that were batch-ramped in the past couple of days have started to collectively pull back. COTI surged up to 85% intraday and then quickly fell back; BEAT jumped 30% and triggered an overheat warning; and BANK crashed straight down by -48%. At the same time, the capital hasn’t left—it’s looking for a new place to land.

There are two targets worth watching:

FLOW — the strongest confluence today. Up 11.9% over 24 hours, with price and volume moving in sync and no overheating. Bullish signals have been continuously resonating since the early session, and the move is still active into the close. This kind of persistence isn’t just emotion-driven speculation—it looks more like structured absorption. Wait for a pullback to the 0.024–0.026 range and see whether the funds step in.

FF — newly added near the close, with a clean chart. Funds flowed in synchronously across the three boards; the 4-hour gain is 7.8%, OI expanded by 9.3%, fees look healthy, and the long side isn’t crowded—there’s fuel above. Keep it on a small-position watch; on a pullback to 0.064–0.066, check for support.

Overall: BTC is testing the upper edge of the 64.6K range. The cooling-off of the imitation-coin overheating suggests the market’s risk appetite is starting to tighten, and capital will concentrate in assets with structural support. Between these two types—structural setups with sustained confluence, and newly initiated “clean” setups near the close—the odds are higher than chasing overheated imitation coins.

Just a market observation, not investment advice.

Funding rate sends a rare signal—what is BTC waiting for?

From last night to today, the market hasn’t seen much volatility; BTC is still ranging between $63,000 and $64,500. But one signal is worth keeping an eye on: the funding rate is currently in a negative range. The last time a similar situation occurred was last September and again at the end of 2022. After both times, the market went on to deliver a sizable-level rebound. In other words, in this round of pullback, the bears have already been rattling things around about as much as they can. Signals that bearish sentiment has hit a temporary peak are starting to appear.

At the same time, there’s an even bigger suspense hanging over the market today—the Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision tonight. While the market broadly expects it to hold steady, what matters most is Powell’s remarks after the announcement. If he releases a dovish signal, the $64,000 support could naturally turn into the starting point for the next leg of the rebound. If he maintains a hawkish stance, the psychological $63,000 level will face a second test.

Overall, the market is now in a “wait-for-direction” mode: the funding rate suggests the bears may soon be running out of steam, but that final breakout will still need the Fed’s decision to land and provide the spark.

Just market observation.

BTC is trading in a range between 63.5K–64.5K, with OI shrinking and funding rates staying relatively low. There’s currently no sign of any squeeze-driven urgency, and the short-term direction remains unclear.

Support is at 63K, resistance at 65K. Watch tonight’s Fed interest-rate decision to see whether it breaks the deadlock. Altcoins are diverging more sharply: high-priced “meme” coins carry concentrated risk, while for majors, wait for pullbacks before reassessing.

Just for market observation.

This bearish candle has ground away another layer of the patience from last week.

Let’s recap. In the morning, our judgment was neutral and we would just observe—not chase any direction. We were right on the direction, but the move wasn’t strong enough: during the day, it dropped from 65.7K down to around 63K, closing at 63.2K, a full-day -2.7%.

The key moment was from 9:00 to 10:00 AM. In one hour, it fell by about a thousand dollars, with volume surging to more than triple the usual level—a classic case of concentrated liquidation. After that, it just grinded lower at the low levels. The close bounced back slightly, but it never managed to hold above 65K, which suggests the selling pressure hasn’t been fully digested yet.

The good news is that the deleveraging among the long-biased positions has already moved into the middle-to-late stage. Derivatives funding hasn’t worsened further, and the 63K integer level is holding for now with some support. The bad news is that no one is stepping in to provide momentum for the rebound—everyone is waiting for the next catalyst.

Outlook for tomorrow: support is at 63K—this is the line in the sand. If it breaks, look to 62.5K. If we’re talking about a repair/rebound, at minimum it needs to reclaim and hold above 63.8K. The range from 64K to 65K is a trapped-position pressure zone. Until a clear direction is chosen, low-level consolidation is the main theme.

Risk warning: there isn’t a decisive winning move for either bulls or bears right now, and big money is also on the sidelines. Holding a light position (or staying flat) and waiting for a clearly defined direction is far better than repeatedly burning capital back and forth within a range.

For market observation only.

Imitation Watch | On the eve of the FOMC, the imitators pull back across the board—leaving only one odd one out

Tonight, before the FOMC decision is finalized, the market is pricing in the risks in advance.

When BTC breaks below 63.4K, the derivatives market sees longs forced to close positions worth 131M, while shorts are only 16M—this isn’t a tug-of-war between bulls and bears; it’s longs deliberately retreating. ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling about $477 million. Meanwhile, the once-strong altcoin sectors (WLD/ONDO/HYPE/FIL/PEPE) are largely going dark in batches.

In such a system-wide contraction, capital will do one thing: retreat to the place with the highest certainty.

Through three rounds of real filtering across the day, only SOON remains.

SOON is an early-stage L2 project. In the past 24 hours, it’s up +17.5%, and it’s appeared in multiple signal systems with synchronized momentum—not driven by a single indicator, but confirmed independently across three rounds. This kind of multi-source resonance in a highly volatile night ahead of the FOMC is the most straightforward form of capital self-protection.

But the move is already +17%. Chasing higher isn’t an option. What’s worth watching is the pullback level—whether there’s support between 0.22 and 0.23. That’s the real signal.

One more thing by way of a counterexample: AKE is up +13.7% on the same day, but on-chain data shows a batch of addresses making multiple small transfers (2–5M coins per address). Combined with earlier OTC large top-up transactions on exchanges—this kind of price action is distribution under cover, not truly strength.

Today’s market is, at its core, teaching one lesson: before the FOMC, instead of chasing the size of the pump, look at who still has buyers stepping in during the pullback.

Just for market observation.

BTC falls below 64,000, what’s different this time?

In the past three days, ETF net outflows have totaled nearly $500 million, and the “whales’” appetite for going long is also cooling off. Bitcoin has consequently broken below 64,000. But what’s even more concerning isn’t just that—BitMEX has announced it will shut down, a signal that veteran players are exiting; HTX has been sanctioned by the EU, and regulatory pressure is tightening its grip further.

But if you look at it from another angle: while these headlines are coming out, BitMEX users are being forced to withdraw funds—yet that actually suggests on-chain assets are moving. Meanwhile, institutional compliance and operational setups are still progressing. The real question right now is the FOMC—tonight’s meeting outcome is the key variable for the market.

Until it lands, the 63,000 support level can still hold for the moment, but repairing the upside will require real, tangible follow-through. This isn’t the time to rush in—it’s time to wait for signals.

For market observation only.

Last night it broke below 64K, and the market panicked for a moment—then nothing much happened.

At the current price around 63.5K, trading volume has shrunk as price stabilizes and stops falling without making new lows. In this move, most of the bullish positions have been largely cleared. Liquidity is still contracting, but the sell pressure is clearly weakening. In plain terms, this is the short-term balance point between bulls and bears; everyone is waiting for direction.

The key levels are clear: resistance is at 63.8K and 64.5K. Only if price breaks above 63.8K and holds there can we talk about a repair/rebound. 64.5K is the midline of the range. Support is at 63K and 62.5K; if 63K breaks again, it will likely test the support below.

Position liquidation tends to happen in the later part, often not far from the bottoming process—but the reversal signal hasn’t appeared yet. Don’t jump to conclusions first. In the altcoins, some local “wild” coins are still putting on a show. The odds for chasing highs are already declining. It’s entertaining, sure—but keep your hands in check.

Today, just watch 63.8K. If it can’t get above it, expect more sideways grinding. If it does break above, then sentiment can finally breathe a little.

Just for market observation.

Recap: We said in the early session that the market would trade sideways; today’s action delivered a textbook answer.

Throughout the day, BTC traded back and forth between 64.5K and 66K. The low was 64.47K—almost precisely landing on the support level highlighted in the morning. The high was 65.7K, still just one breath away from the 66K resistance. In the evening it pulled back to around 65K, probed lower then recovered before slipping again, but the overall direction never truly broke.

Prediction vs. outcome: The early-session outlook was for a neutral range-bound market, with support at 64.5K and resistance at 66K. Both levels were defended. The logic also didn’t change—trading volume kept shrinking, and capital didn’t flow back in, so a trend move naturally couldn’t form. The positions that were forced out today were again mostly the more bearish capital. Market structure looks healthy, but there’s no catalyst.

Worth mentioning: ETH, up 3.57%, clearly outperformed BTC. Signs of mainstream rotation are becoming increasingly obvious. In the altcoin space, enthusiasm is more scattered; several high-priced names flagged for avoidance in the morning indeed showed distribution behavior today. The risk of chasing higher prices was validated again.

Tomorrow’s outlook: The range-based approach remains unchanged. Consolidation and repair continue as long as price holds above 64.5K; if it breaks down, only then do we talk about defense. Don’t expect a direct breakout past 66K without volume. Focus on two things: (1) whether position “heat” can build up again, and (2) whether ETH’s strength can drive rotation to broaden.

Risk warning: In a sideways market, the worst thing is getting slapped back and forth—control the pace and wait for the direction to become clear before acting.

For market observation only.

FIL: OI inflows against the trend—storage sector worth watching

With BTC maintaining relatively strong momentum but shrinking volume, capital has begun to move into the storage sector that previously lagged.

Today, FIL OI continues to flow in: +27% on the 4h timeframe and +24% on the 24h timeframe, while price only dips slightly—this is a typical “catching bids against the trend” structure. The dual logic of the AI narrative and storage demand continues to ferment in the market; funding rates remain in a healthy range with no extreme bullish signals.

From the order book perspective, FIL shows strong willingness to absorb around the 0.68–0.72 pullback zone. If it can reclaim the 0.78–0.82 area, the storage sector’s narrative may receive further validation. Note, however, that if BTC turns broadly weak, the persistence of an independent move in the storage sector still needs macro confirmation.

At present, FIL is in the “wait for a pullback confirmation” stage. Watch the 0.68–0.72 range; don’t chase at higher levels—just keep it on the watchlist.

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1INCH: dual-source resonance—low-level accumulation signals worth attention

Today, DeFi old coin 1INCH appears simultaneously in multiple signal systems’ key watchlists, representing a rare convergence of bullish factors.

From the chart, 1INCH has recently maintained a low-level accumulation structure, with a ~8% gain over the past 24 hours—moderate upside rather than overheated sentiment. On-chain data shows signs that funds are gradually building positions in the lower range, and community attention has been picking up. Funding rates stay at normal levels, with no extreme bullish signals.

The overall strength of the ETH ecosystem provides some linkage to the DeFi sector, but 1INCH’s own accumulation logic remains independent of the broader market—this is a dual-logic resonance. If the 0.28–0.32 pullback zone can hold steady, it can be used as an observation point.

Currently, 1INCH is in the consolidation stage after low-level accumulation. Don’t chase—wait for pullback confirmation. Just keep it on the watchlist.

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Only for market observation.

BTC Reclaims 65K, but this recovery is a bit “weak”

BTC has regained 65K over the past few trading days. The previous week’s low of 63.8K has been recovered. However, on closer inspection, this round of recovery is more driven by shorts actively closing positions. Over the past 24 hours, the short-clearing amount has far exceeded that of longs. This kind of “short retreat” doesn’t mean long positions are gaining strength; the real buying momentum is actually not strong.

An unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Korea is an easy-to-overlook variable on the macro front today. Expectations of tighter liquidity have moved at the margin higher, which puts short-term pressure on risk assets broadly. This could be one of the underlying reasons why BTC is likely to keep chopping around near 65K.

In the altcoin space, there is a clear divergence: meme coins are seeing frequent short-term spikes, but many have already entered overbought territory; while assets like DIA, which have more concrete technical narratives, are starting to come into view. High-profile community favorites such as DOGE, AAVE, and TAO are also rotating within the range. This suggests capital is probing, but the direction has not yet formed a unified push.

Key levels to watch: 65.3K must hold to keep the range-bound structure intact. A real breakout would only be confirmed by breaking above 66K–67K. Until then, don’t chase higher.

Just for market observation.