牧羊的加密日记

Funds are starting to rotate seats.

Things were lively over on the “demon coin” side for a few days, but today it’s clearly gone sour—the group that surged the hardest has started to give back, and some even show signs of distribution. But the capital hasn’t left; it’s just moved to a new place to sit: the AI/data track.

Why pay attention to KAITO: multiple signals are resonating together. In the last 24 hours it’s up +12%, and position heat is synchronizing and amplifying. Fees are still negative, and the slightly bearish side is being forced to exit passively. There’s a sign of credible follow-through at the start—not just chasing highs. Pullbacks are more comfortable than chasing.

Why pay attention to ICP: it’s an earlier-stage sample. Position heat spiked by nearly 30% within an hour, the first in the whole market. Price only rose a little—around 2%—suggesting capital has already moved in before the price reacts. The bearish side is also crowded, so the upside elasticity is here.

Risk warning: this is an observation pool, not trading advice. On the demon-coin side, short-term movers like DIA, EUL, DEXE have accumulating risk when the rally gets too stretched; the easiest place to get hurt is during the handoff at the emotional peak. Sector rotation is fast, so timing matters more than the specific asset.

Just for market observation.

# BTC Breaks Below 64K, But the Money Isn’t Idle

This morning, BTC fell below 64K. Large net outflows appeared in the ETF, and there were clear signals that institutional short-term funds are pulling back. But on the other side, whale wallets are still quietly accumulating, with dormant addresses showing activity—institutions and retail traders are taking opposite paths.

The funds haven’t left the crypto market; instead, they’ve flowed into smaller-cap coins with even bigger volatility. The Meme sector is in full celebration: SHIB is up more than 30% over the past 24 hours, and “weird/alt” coins like EUL and ALLO have been lifted in turn. Even mainstream alts such as DOGE and AVAX are seeing catch-up gains. XRP stands out as one of the few independent strong performers today, with spot demand hitting a June high.

At its core, this reflects a split in market sentiment: BTC’s direction is unclear, and capital is rapidly rotating among small-cap assets to hunt for opportunities. In the afternoon, watch whether it can stabilize around the 63K area. If it continues to drift lower, it may test the 61K–62K range.

Just for market observation.

The big pancake is pretending to sleep again—most of the money has all run to the small-cap coins.

Around 64.5K it’s been sideways all day: position slightly down, fees are at ground level, and neither bulls nor bears can be bothered to make a move. Support to watch is 63.5K, resistance is 65.5K—until a level breaks, it’s just noise.

Two paths: if it holds above 65.5K, the consolidation can be considered over and upside space opens; if it breaks below 63.5K, the short-term outlook turns weaker—then we’ll see how strong the follow-through/support is.

The real action is in Memes: SHIB is up more than 30% in a day, with money piling in fast—yet the funding/fees are negative, and the disagreement is huge. Old favorites like DOGE and AVAX are also starting to catch up; money is rotating quickly within small market caps, and the big pancake becomes just background.

Reminder: those “mystery coins” that surged 80%+ in a day have already reached the danger zone—the risk at high levels is far greater than the opportunity.

For today, just two things to watch: whether the big pancake can hold the 63.5K support, and how long the Meme heat can keep burning.

Just for market observation.

# BTC remained range-bound for a day, and longs were shaken out for two days — what is the market waiting for?

This morning, I said it would trade in a sideways range of 63.3K–65.3K, with a neutral-to-slightly bearish bias. What happened then?

Opened at 64.1K, closed at 64.1K — with an intraday range of less than $200.

The outlook was neutral, and it matched the whole day’s movement perfectly.

## What happened today

Two things happened at the same time:

**1. Crowded positions were rapidly flushed out.** Over the past two days, longs made up 84% of liquidations across the whole network. Funding rates dropped quickly from 0.0057% to 0.0024%, nearly to the zero line — the capital that chased longs at the higher levels has basically been shaken out, reducing the fuel for further downside.

**2. Altcoins showed broad weakness and converged.** ETH/SOL/WLD continued to drift slightly lower with no new catalysts, and money overall shifted back toward BTC. Friday’s DEXE one-day +164% is a “weird coin” phenomenon and doesn’t indicate the broader market direction.

## What to watch tomorrow

63.3K and 65.3K — wait for a breakout/breakdown before deciding the direction.

- Resistance above: 65.3K (breakout could target 66K–66.4K)
- Support below: 63.3K (breakdown could target 62.5K)

The market is building energy — not sleeping.

Just for market observation.

In a weak market, the capital hasn’t really gone quiet—it’s been sneaking into a corner: the liquidity segment of the BNB ecosystem.

Multiple channels of LISTA funding signals keep appearing one after another; positions are slowly being accumulated, and they’re still at low levels—without going through a hype-and-dump spike like “妖币” (a pump-and-dump coin). BANK’s volume and price move in sync with each other, expanding clearly. Turnover is ample; both long and short sides have been through a full round of activity. The floating supply has been cleared, and the structure is actually cleaner.

The logic isn’t complicated: when major coins drop across the board, capital retreats from high-position “妖币.” The first reaction isn’t to leave—it’s to gather in ecosystems that have consensus. The liquidity narrative on the BNB chain has fundamental support.

Risks spelled out: in a weak market, any breakout can be carried away by liquidity. For example, only trade when equal-volume confirmation is in place for LISTA, and when pullbacks and retests for BANK stabilize. Don’t touch any sudden rally that happens too fast.

For market observation only.

BTC drops to 63.9K, but the tug-of-war balance between longs and shorts is subtly tipping

BTC remains weak. In the afternoon it broke below the 64K level, and is now at 63.9K (24h -2.16%). The Nasdaq posted a three-day losing streak to hit a three-month low. The semiconductor sector fell more than 4% in a single day. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has pushed oil prices toward $100—triple macro pressures stacked on top of each other.

But a few signals are worth a closer look.

First, long positions and capital have been continuously exiting passively. That means the fuel for further decline is actually running low. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation volume across the whole network was 71M, with longs accounting for 94%. For two consecutive days, passive long liquidations have been the main driver. With the long-side inventory shrinking sharply, there aren’t enough shells to keep hammering prices down.

Second, open interest and funding rates have not spiraled out of control. The size of capital positions is basically flat, and the funding rate is close to neutral. This drop doesn’t look like a derivatives cascade; it resembles spot selling pressure dominating instead. Structurally, this is a range-bound move rather than a trend-like collapse.

Third, the actual price has already fallen about 18% below the spot price. The BTC/gold RSI is in the historical oversold range, and the bear market has already run through 40 weeks. Downside room is not infinite.

The local surge in “weird” coins is an independent phenomenon. DEXE surged 168% in a day—typical of a low-float, small-cap quickly being pushed up, which doesn’t necessarily mean the whole sector is recovering.

In summary: falling doesn’t equal a meltdown. A portion of long exposure has been washed out, which has slightly improved the structure.

Just for market observation.

Woke up and found a bunch of u added to my account. I was completely baffled.
Checked the contract positions too—nothing really moved much.
Then I looked at all the positions—$AA violently pumped the whole market!!

Damn it—I bought earlier, it kept dropping, and later I just stopped paying attention. When I got up, it had pumped 3x. Who can tell me what happened!!

In this kind of situation, locking in profits and starting this aggressively—it's a pull-up like a data-hogging-style rally for gathering chips. It should be promising for the future, right!!

$DEXE is also a weird one! Chase a bit of small spot—just as a keepsake!

BTC slipped from 65.3K to 64.1K, and after bottoming in the 4h timeframe it has started to move sideways. OI is basically unchanged, and funding rates are close to neutral.

Over the past two days, most liquidation has been short-side liquidations around 67M, with longs mainly being cleaned out. Crowded positions have been largely flushed, and the fuel for further downside has decreased.

Today, expect range-bound trading between 63.3K–65.3K. Resistance at 65.3K / 66K, support at 63.3K / 62.5K.
Watch: if price breaks below 63.3K, look for short entries targeting 62.5K; only consider covering if it reclaims 65.3K. Liquidity is typically thinner over the weekend, and geopolitical headline risk is still present—wait for confirmation of direction within the range.

For market observation only.

Stayed vigilant all day, but at night I still couldn’t hold the line.

During the day, under the pressure of the escalating conflict and oil prices exceeding 100, BTC remained steady in a range, even tapping as high as 65.8K in the afternoon. But above 66K, supply was too heavy. The rebound didn’t have enough follow-through, and after 20:00 in the evening, it trended downward all the way, bottoming at 64.3K—breaking below the 64.6K level that I’d been watching for two days.

Looking back at the morning assessment: range-bound trading with a higher downside risk—the direction was right, and the peak did indeed get capped at the 66K–66.4K resistance zone. The deviation was that the breakdown came sooner than expected; the answer was already delivered intraday. Also, this time was a volume-accompanied selloff, not the kind of needle-like dip that gets pulled back as in yesterday—so the nature of the move is more meaningful.

For support below, first watch the market’s focus area at 63.3K–63.8K. Further down is 62.5K. If by tomorrow morning price can quickly reclaim above 64.6K, it can be treated as a false breakdown and the range structure would continue.

Tomorrow’s outlook: with the weekend layered on top of geopolitical uncertainty, capital is inclined to cool off ahead of the weekend, and the weak trend is unlikely to change in the near term. Don’t rush to catch the rebound—first, see whether it can reclaim 64.6K. Whether it can close back above it is one thing; whether it can’t is another.

Risk warning: geopolitical news could trigger sharp volatility at any time—make sure to control the pace. This is for market observation only.

Money flows in before the move—LDO and FIL are worth a close look

Today there’s no clear main storyline in the market. BTC is grinding around the 65K level, and most sectors are rotating. But the capital signals for two coins stand out sharply.

LDO: The open interest/holding volume expands by more than 20% in sync across the 1-hour, 4-hour, and 24-hour cycles, yet the price is up only just over 1%. Fees haven’t overheated either. This “volume leads, price lags” structure usually indicates capital slowly building positions at low levels—not chasing. Since mid-July it’s been consolidating; 0.38–0.39 is the key observation zone.

FIL: Even more extreme. The price actually fell by 1%, while holding volume increased by 25%. In a long-term bottom range, this level of capital accumulation is a textbook case of “money comes first, price hasn’t moved.” The right-side structure hasn’t been confirmed yet—observe the follow-through first; there’s no need to rush.

Risk warning: This is a watchlist, not an action checklist. Holding volume expansion can also mean two-sided competition. Before the structure is confirmed, the risk at higher levels is greater than the opportunity. Also, there are many coins showing distribution traits today—be especially careful with short-term momentum sentiment coins.

Just for market observation.

$EVAA You really give me a lot of face!

We’re talking about the range between 0.8 and 1. I directly placed an order at 0.8. Just now when I opened the exchange, I was like, why did my money increase? I looked at the coin in my holdings—there wasn’t much movement at all!

Then I refreshed my position. Turns out EVAA got me—a single wick just happened to pick me up and put me on the train. And as soon as I came in, I sold immediately.

In 30 minutes, I captured a 14% price increase!

1-minute chart!! So comfortable!!!

#AltcoinHotSpot

Oil prices break 100, AI stocks flash-crash, and BTC stays put

After the Middle East entered its 13th night, US Air Force B-1 bombers joined the strikes, while Iranian drones hit US bases. Brent broke above 100. US AI stocks wiped out $800 billion in a single day, and Tesla fell 14%.

Against this backdrop, BTC is still sitting at 65K. It didn’t follow the drop, nor did it rally on the opportunity.

This suggests a few things:

First, around 65K, the long/short positions have been thoroughly shaken out. The crowded long positions near 67K were already thrown off the train. The current positioning is fairly balanced—neither side is able to grind down the other.

Second, the “safe-haven” narrative is splitting. Gold fell 2% due to a liquidity squeeze—everyone is pulling cash to top up margin. BTC didn’t drop, which indicates the capital in this pool is not the batch that’s being forced liquidated; it’s holding up more steadily.

Third, the macro picture isn’t over. Oil breaking above 100 means inflation expectations still need to be revised upward. US Treasury yields hit a 18-month high, and the pressure on risk assets is likely to persist. BTC’s resilience is temporary, not a trend reversal.

Today, watch 64.6K. If it holds and continues to trade sideways over the weekend, then breaking below the next level could take it to 63.3K.

Just market observation.

# BTC early session | War escalates, oil tops $100, why isn’t Bitcoin crashing?

On the 13th night of the Middle East conflict, US Air Force B-1 bombers joined the fight, and Brent crude broke through $100 per barrel—this is the strongest macro risk-off wave in recent months.

The Nasdaq fell more than 2%, Tesla slid 14%, and gold actually dropped 2% (liquidity squeeze), but BTC only fell 0.43%, holding above 65K.

Why?

Yesterday’s selloff flushed out crowded longs around 64.7K—over the past 24h, long liquidations totaled $42M versus $8M for shorts. Funding rates fell to zero, retail sentiment leaned bearish, and that paradoxically reduced the momentum for further downside.

Today, we’re seeing range-bound trading—watch for the breakout direction.

- Support: 64.6K → 63.3K → 62.5K
- Resistance: 66.4K → 67K

Large-scale strikes keep key issues unresolved, and weekend geopolitics headline risk is elevated—chasing higher prices in the short term has poor risk-reward.

ETH and smaller alts are weaker; capital rotates into BTC as a safe haven.

For market observation only.

# BTC Evening Recap 2026-07-24

## Prediction Review

Morning forecast: neutral → Actual price action: ✅ **Direction correct**

Yesterday, BTC briefly tested above 66K before pulling back. The session closed around 65.5K, with OI continuing to contract and funding rates staying negative. This matches the morning assessment: this upswing lacks spot-buyer support; fundamentally, it’s a derivatives-driven game.

---

## Today’s Actual Price Action

Yesterday BTC saw a high and then faded throughout the day. In the Asia session it briefly held above 66K, then retreated to around 65.5K in the afternoon. OI shrank by -2.7%, funding rates remained negative, suggesting insufficient chase-bid willingness. Overall it still looks like a relatively weak range-bound consolidation structure.

---

## Core Signal Recap

1. **OI continues to contract**: down from 49.4B to 48.8B. Long positions are still adjusting; until that’s completed, a trend rebound is unlikely.
2. **Funding rates stay negative**: shorts hold the upper hand in this phase; bullish capital should be cautious.
3. **Altcoins lack confirmation**: the morning flagged no “rogue coin” (妖币) launch signal; market risk appetite is low.
4. **On-chain data**: Circle minted 750M USDC in a single day—medium to long term is relatively positive, but in the short term it hasn’t translated into spot buying.

---

## Outlook for Tomorrow

**Prediction: neutral, range-bound is the main theme.**

66K remains a key effective resistance level, while 64.5K–65K is an area that may attract bids. For a directional breakout, you need one of two signals: a macro catalyst (Fed policy commentary / continued net inflows into ETFs) or spot capital entering in a substantive way. If neither appears, it’s not advisable to have overly high expectations for a trend reversal.

Altcoins continue to exhibit a high-volatility impulse structure, with dense “妖币” signals—trading is difficult, so it’s mostly a wait-and-see situation.

**Key Levels**:
- Resistance: 66K / 66.5K / 68K
- Support: 65K / 64.5K / 63.5K

---

This is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.

Imitation coins aren’t seeing a broad-based rally today—they’re building up energy.

BTC is weak and trading sideways around 65K; OI is still contracting, and there’s no obvious sign of capital flowing back into the market. In this situation, the thing to watch is: who is quietly building structure.

**WLFI**: Within 4 hours, the price is up +13% and OI surges in sync; in the past 24 hours, funding has been steadily flowing in, up +19%. It has broken out, but it hasn’t accelerated yet—wait for a pullback and confirmation around 0.058–0.060. The sector is hot, and capital is there; there’s a logical support for this buildup, not just emotion-driven speculation.

**ZAMA**: In the FHE privacy track, with partnerships with Elliptic and the acquisition of TokenOps—these are among the few real progress catalysts lately. Multiple signal sources point to it at the same time, suggesting it’s not retail chasing it; there’s an institutional narrative behind it. But its current move is already +22–25%; volume hasn’t expanded significantly, so it’s a setup that’s waiting for a pullback to 0.044–0.047. Don’t chase.

The overall market is cooling down, and the memecoin window is empty. At a time like this, you should focus on assets with real catalysts and a structural buildup—not chasing hype, but waiting for capital to come back.

Just for market observation.

# BTC rallies to a high then pulls back; the 66K resistance is effective

## News Highlights

In today’s Asian session, BTC briefly touched above the 66K level and then quickly retreated. It is currently trading around 65.5K. On-chain data monitoring shows that this rebound was mainly driven by derivatives. Spot buying has not provided sufficient support, and the move exhibits a "rally-to-tempt" (bull trap) characteristic. In the past day, Circle minted 750 million USDC, increasing stablecoin supply—an overall positive signal in the medium to long term.

## What It Means

The 66K resistance level remains effective. In essence, this surge higher is the result of derivatives-driven games rather than being powered by genuine capital inflows. The funding rate turning negative plus OI contraction suggests the market is cooling off in a mild way. With no strong macro catalyst right now, direction likely needs to wait for confirmation of substantive spot capital entering the market. Altcoins are cooling across the board, and large funds are also staying on the sidelines. It’s better to wait than to make a proactive move.

For market observation only.

$ON At the top of the basic correction phase, it dropped—after that, I tried to bring the stop-loss back, but I still got stopped out!

Going lower, because of the mood of $DEXE , I didn’t dare to bottom-fish. I didn’t expect it to V back with real strength. I can only offer my blessings!

$MITO After buying, that dog-whale kept testing the order book. Today it’s a bit more bullish—there’s hope to actually get some meat!

$EVAA Open the 4-hour chart to look: the trading range is still fairly clear—trade between 0.8 and 1, and you can still get a taste of the soup!

$ZAMA Yesterday there were clear signals, but unfortunately I had something come up and I missed the chance.

BTC is still grinding around 65K. OI has contracted by 2.56%, indicating positions are being unwound rather than a fresh wave of liquidation; the funding rate has turned negative. The short side is temporarily in a better spot, but the fading “position heat” itself suggests selling pressure is nearing its bottom.

Key resistance levels are 66K / 66.5K; support is at 64.5K. There’s no major macro catalyst today, so direction is unclear. If it breaks above 66.5K, then we can look for longs; otherwise, we continue waiting.

Just for market observation.

BTC probed higher today and then pulled back.

Earlier in the day we were leaning bullish, with a target around the 70K area; however, the actual session high only reached 66.9K before turning lower. In the evening, it stabilized around 65.5K, and ended up up 1.07% for the day. We got the direction right, but the outlook was overly optimistic. The strong resistance at 68K wasn’t even touched—it rolled back instead. This suggests it’s not a breakout-driven move, but rather a bullish-leaning range-bound market.

Looking at the tape, capital hasn’t been aggressively piled back in. Fees have stayed very low, and there isn’t much chase-buying appetite in the derivatives side. The whole day played out as a low-volume consolidation and stabilization.

The news flow isn’t actually bad: ETFs saw net inflows for six consecutive days. Regulatory legislation cleared the final hurdle, and big money has continued positioning, yet price didn’t surge meaningfully. The market seems to be waiting for the next macro confirmation signal.

Altcoins today were extremely divergent. LAB jumped nearly 40% at one point in the morning, then quickly faded. RIF fell 52% in a single day—both are classic “fast pulse, fast fade” patterns. Choosing the right coin matters more than simply holding.

What about tomorrow? First, look at the range. 66.9K is the already-tested resistance level that failed to hold. Above that sits the 68K weekly strong resistance. On the downside, 65.4K is the key intraday support; only if it breaks should we then look at the next level around 64.5K. Until 68K resistance is broken, don’t treat it as a trend reversal.

Just for market observation.

# Copycat Watch: AI Narratives Are Still Burning, But Today There’s a Different Signal

Today the AI sector is still trading in a high-level range. GENIUS moved along with the broader market for a dozen-odd points, and the heat around the AI narrative hasn’t cooled.

But there’s one signal worth calling out separately: ZHIPU.

In the past 24 hours, it’s up +40%. That kind of move isn’t unusual—you’ve seen plenty of “妖币” style spikes. The key is that OI was down at the same time. It rose 40%, yet derivatives positions were shrinking. What does that mean? It’s not hype inflating the position—there’s real, tangible demand pushing it.

When you connect this with the recent stories in China’s AI sector, it does seem like people are talking about this direction. The narrative aligns with the price action—this isn’t just chasing highs on pure emotion.

Just a market observation.