零下十三度

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The darkest moment for people in the crypto world, let's work hard together, and believe that wonderful things will surely happen in the future.

Although Little Market trends may not be accurate, I still have confidence in the larger cycles and trends.
As the U.S. gradually completes its political cleansing, the political situation is stabilizing, and more favorable policies for cryptocurrencies will be introduced, bringing in more capital into the crypto space.
Although we see some whales selling Ethereum and other assets to cut losses, what many don't see is that there are even more giant whales frantically buying at this time.
Please don't panic blindly; regardless of how the market fluctuates at this position, I hope you can persist together with me.
Such market trends will occur many times during this bull market progression.
Everyone should be mentally prepared and not be overly concerned about gains and losses. Most retail investors will regret not selling at 109,000, thinking how great it would be to have enough cash to buy the dip now.
Do not count small losses; thinking about how much I’ve lost or what I could have done with that money will only intensify your panic. Investing is inherently a matter of probability; both gains and losses are normal, and we are ordinary people who can't always win without losing.
The key is that even if we temporarily lose, we must ensure we can survive.
Only then can we truly establish ourselves in the crypto space.

Keep it up, crypto enthusiasts,
Welcome to follow me, let's traverse the bull and bear markets together and see through the complexities of the crypto world.

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In the larger environment and direction, the tone of a bull market is still present, and there is no doubt about that.
The entire market is waiting for Bitcoin to reach 78,000, and when it does, everyone will want to invest heavily in spot trading. Thirteen people believe that this level is unlikely to be reached and suggest buying gradually within the range of 84,000.
Bitcoin has now reached this level, and there is still significant room to the ultimate target of 150,000, so one can give up on Ethereum and focus on Bitcoin.
The potential for the future is even greater, which is very favorable for the subsequent market trends.
Although the market is currently declining and retail investors are collectively panicking, the fear and greed index has dropped to 10, there have also been many good news from the market.
First, nearly half of the mainstream Bitcoin mining machines have already reached their shutdown price; apart from the new mining machines coming out in 2024, the others may have to shut down now.
The shutdown price of mining machines is a very important metric for the market.
Generally speaking, when the price reaches this level, even if it is not the bottom, it is not far from the bottom.
Additionally, Oklahoma has passed a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, which has been approved by the House of Representatives, and the next step is to enter the bidding phase. If this bill passes, 10% of the state's public funds will be used to invest in Bitcoin.
This represents over $500 billion entering the cryptocurrency market.
Currently, even though the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a downturn due to tariff issues, Thirteen remains firmly bullish overall.

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From today's market trends, apart from Bitcoin and Ethereum leading the decline,
other altcoins have stopped following the drop, even these altcoins are starting to show some restraint.
Having fallen to this position, with the release of panic emotions, many retail investors are exiting, and the market is likely to welcome a rapid rebound.
It is expected to reach the 91,000 position, and at this point, everyone can consider reducing their positions appropriately.
Especially for those who have leveraged, no matter how many times, please make sure to at least withdraw 1/3 of your position, and keep some cash on hand to prepare for a new round of market washing.
Yes, Shisan believes that the current market is not bearish, but a washout.
This continuous decline is beneficial for the future market, as it decisively eliminates retail investors' holdings, providing conditions for the big players to push the market up.
This round of market washing, according to the current trend, is expected to take a long time, which will test everyone's mentality.
99% of people will not be able to withstand this round.
A slow bull market is indeed very difficult.
Of course, many people in the market believe that the bear market has already arrived, and that Bitcoin will start with a 5.
This statement is rampant during the decline, so I hope everyone does not let these panic emotions affect them.
Investment is originally an expectation of the future price of a commodity, both rises and falls are possible, regarding specific positions, aside from technical analysis, everyone is actually just talking nonsense.
At this time, a set of scientific investment methods becomes particularly important.
When the market rises, you can profit, and when it falls, you can buy at low prices; persist in buying low and selling high within the range to lower your holding costs.
This is how you can cope with various situations.
Even if Bitcoin goes to zero now, you can still protect over 30% of your principal, which can be used to buy in extremely desperate situations, giving you hope to recover.
If this current decline has already caused you to lose most of your investment, you need to carefully review your investment strategy.
Everyone must not place their hopes on anyone else; the investment strategy system, Shisan will provide it within the circle, but it needs to be strictly executed.
Never think that if someone comes out to promote a coin, the opportunity for financial freedom has arrived, and then you rush in recklessly.

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They don't even care about their reputation, Ethereum ranks high on the list of declines.
During this transition from bear market to bull market, at least more than half of the long-time investors in the crypto space have bet on Ethereum; this group of investors are steadfast supporters and believers in Ethereum.
After this round of market movement, this group now holds the most significant losses.
It's not just retail investors; institutional investors are also included. Many whales have had to cut losses and exit in recent days, especially today when many whales started to sell at a loss and flee.
The market has further plunged into panic, with the Fear and Greed Index surprisingly reaching 10, indicating that there is no lower limit to the panic.
From a long-term investment perspective, entering the market at this position is casual; there's no need to worry about future market trends.
But now, how many people in the crypto space dare to buy at the bottom?
Currently, most of those selling at a loss are retail investors, while whales cutting losses are all over the news, and on-chain data can be monitored.
However, some whales are now crazily buying at the bottom, investing all cash, showing immense confidence in Ethereum.
Retail investors are now extremely panicked, especially those who have leveraged; many friends have only doubled their leverage and are starting to feel anxious.
The wave of selling at a loss has arrived.
Many people can't bear the torment of the market and are hastily selling at a loss.
After all, according to the current market trend, many people are unable to sleep through the night.
Who knows, another sharp drop might happen at midnight, wiping out all positions.
Fortunately, we are all holding spot assets, not afraid of declines; as long as there is enough time and you can withstand it, then this round of market movement will definitely not result in losses; this is the bottom line.

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lEthereum is now in the top three of the decline list.

What is the lower limit?

There are many retail investors who have sold their stocks recently. I hope you are not one of them.

Thirteen opened an ant warehouse at 85500 to conduct experiments, and will stop loss immediately if it falls below 85000. The advantage of this type of order is that the loss is not significant, and if Bitcoin rebounds quickly, one can profit significantly.

Remember, it is an ant warehouse. Do not take heavy positions, do not go all in.

Why did the sudden drop happen this time?
Here are a few events for everyone to consider:
First, South Dakota, USA, vetoed the resolution to invest in Bitcoin, and the Bitcoin strategic reserve was rejected, which will certainly affect the confidence in the investment market.
We know that Trump has clearly expressed support for cryptocurrencies, and it is very clear that Bitcoin is considered a national strategic reserve.
The current political storm in the United States will inevitably harm the interests of many people, and the veto was also expected; it remains to be seen how things will progress.
The Americans indeed need a major overhaul; Musk asked civil servants to provide weekly reports, which were explicitly rejected by various leaders, and they ordered their subordinates not to send them.
Just a weekly report, and everyone can't accept it. From this perspective, a major overhaul is indeed needed; who is Musk? This time he is likely to fire a large number of people.
The second is a hacking incident, one being the North Korean hacking attack on bybit, which has been mentioned in previous articles.
There was also a hacking attack on the cryptocurrency payment platform Infini, where $50 million in USDC was stolen.
Of course, these platforms are capable of compensating; clients' assets are not a concern.
Think about it, these trading platforms are at the top of this pyramid; they have dedicated security teams, yet asset theft still occurred.
So, is your personal cold wallet still safe?
If professional hackers target you, can you handle it?
I have always encouraged everyone to put assets on leading exchanges; if your assets are stolen, the platform will definitely compensate in full. If they are in your personal cold wallet, then you will have nothing left.
The third is that OK has been investigated, with the same charges as Binance, suspected of money laundering, and Binance paid a hefty price to calm things down, while OK was fined $500 million, which is relatively better.
If Biden were in charge, it might have been ten times that.
This indicates that the current situation is still unclear, especially since Trump's tariff policies have caused market panic, leading to a rush to seek safety.
From the current results, if it happens again, would you prefer Harris or Trump?

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There is an indicator called AHR999 that everyone can check out.
This indicator can clearly provide entry signals for long-term investors, and now this indicator tells us that Bitcoin has reached the accumulation zone.

The area below the green line is the accumulation zone, and it has returned again.
This indicator has never been wrong in the previous history of Bitcoin, so we can trust it.

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Regarding altcoins, 99% of retail investors suffer heavy losses.
Because we are retail investors, not institutions, with limited capital, we generally do not take large positions in Bitcoin, but rather place our hopes of making money on altcoins.
Even for seasoned investors like me, the position in Bitcoin is only 25%, while 40% is given to altcoins. Fortunately, BNB and SOL have performed relatively well; otherwise, the losses would be even greater.
Ethereum has also been given a significant position, and the biggest disappointment this round has been it. If you let ten thousand people with investment experience analyze it, they would all agree that Ethereum will rise to 8000~10000. My expectation is 6000, which is already quite conservative.
In this bull market, this asset has no bottom, and the disappointment is extreme. If it rises later, then the greater the disappointment, the greater the hope.
If any coin can push the market to its peak in this bull run, it must be Ethereum.
No matter how difficult it is now, we must hold on; we may not increase our positions, but we must believe in Ethereum, as its value is far higher than this price.
Many people ask if there will be another altcoin season in this bull market?
Aside from mainstream coins, long-term investment in altcoins is no longer worthwhile; there is no value support, and once the hype is over, it becomes a mess. If Bitcoin drops slightly, these coins will directly head towards being halved.
In this market, aside from the top ten coins, for other coins, investors must take profits when they can; do not be greedy.
After breaking previous highs, set up your profit-taking points and move them up as the price rises.
In short, you must start taking profits; do not expect these coins to bring you wealth. Now that institutions have entered the market, the investment value of the coins that are further ahead is higher.
Especially with high-risk investments like contracts and leverage, one must only pursue short-term gains. Never hold onto losing positions, and strictly execute profit-taking and stop-loss orders.
Even for spot trading, it is not advisable to hold long-term. The era where simply holding onto coins was considered a loss is over.
Many teams behind projects have disbanded, and even those that are still around rarely work earnestly; they are mostly looking for ways to harvest retail investors.
Therefore, investors may incur even greater losses with these altcoins in spot trading.
Never hold faith in altcoins; this is just a relay game.

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This world is very cruel.
The current market trend seems to be stabilizing, but it is about to start fluctuating again.
The probability of going up is still greater than going down.
The possibility of a downward spike is relatively high; at this price, except for Bitcoin, almost all altcoins have reached the point where it’s a good time to buy with your eyes closed.
The price has completely fallen back to the levels of the last bear market.
Of course, at this time, if you enter the market to buy the dip, make sure to focus on Bitcoin, as altcoins have no lower limit, and Bitcoin is the eternal god of this circle.
As for altcoins, a proper allocation is sufficient.
In this bull market, no one has been as strong as Ethereum in the previous bull markets; this time it will be disappointing, but I still believe it will explode in this bull market.
However, I might not increase my positions now, but will slowly buy the dip in Bitcoin.
How much money I make doesn’t matter; what I pursue is a sufficiently low risk so that I can sleep soundly at night while navigating the crypto space.
The current market has already hit a freezing point, and the momentum of the correction has not yet ended. When buying the dip, everyone should enter in batches and not go all in.
Many friends have leveraged positions and are currently stuck. Be sure to pay attention to the liquidation position and lower it a bit; never think that the market won’t decline. A single spike can wipe out your position, just like the spike on February 3rd, where even the experts couldn’t react in time.
In the next few days, everyone should avoid blindly entering for short-term trades; the current events are for long-term investors and are a golden time. Short-term investors will lose their shirts in this fluctuating market.

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Others fear my greed, now I can be a little greedier.

The weather is getting warmer, but the hearts of people in the cryptocurrency circle are getting colder~

So, what is a black swan?

In the crypto industry, we have actually been discriminated against.
Because we are both naive and playful, we are Chinese.
The higher-ups do not protect us, blocking various deposit and withdrawal channels, but not blocking them so tightly, leaving room for many people to operate, resulting in a lot of rent-seeking.
Some people whose deposit and withdrawal cards were frozen were told that they could be unfrozen, but half of the money would be deducted.
Since the black money has not been found, why can it be unfrozen? Where did half of the money go? Who is the person who benefits behind it? Has it all been turned over to the treasury?
These questions will never be answered, and they all rely on human rule.
Chinese people are a vulnerable group in the currency circle. They are cut by Western investors every day, losing money in various ways, and they can't cash out smoothly with only a few melons and two dates left.
We are the most pitiful group of people.
No one supports us in it, but they set up barriers for you, and we are discriminated against in the circle.
Life is really hard. Many people think that the West is the real freedom and rule of law. If you have this idea, you are wrong.
The West is also ruled by man. For example, Charlie Srem, a big shot in the cryptocurrency circle, was sentenced to two years for helping them register an exchange. The charge was that he violated the American confidentiality law.
Roger Mayer, the earliest evangelist of Bitcoin, was sentenced to permanent imprisonment because he did not clear the US tax before changing his nationality. In the early days, he sold 170,000 Bitcoins.
In the early days, the value of these things was often impossible to assess, and the charges were what the official said.
Is this freedom and the rule of law?
Of course not. Where there are people, there are rivers and lakes, human relationships, and there is room for operation.
This is the truth of this world. Either you are so weak that others disdain you, or you are so strong that you are invincible. In the middle layer, your wealth is just meat in the eyes of others.
Fortunately, we are all very weak. If we make a sound, I guess others will not even look at us.
From this perspective, we are all safe.
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The biggest factor affecting the market these two days is that bybit's cold wallet was stolen.
At first, Thirteen suspected whether it was a self-directed and self-acted incident. After all, the probability of a cold wallet of an exchange being stolen is too low.
Later, it was found to be true.
It seems that North Korean hackers are a group of ruthless people. Except for the Ethereum hard fork, this time the amount is the largest.
Instantly, the market with a good trend fell, causing the currency circle to sigh.
After all, the current weak market can't withstand any disturbance.
As a person in the currency circle, after this incident, of course, I hope that bybit can survive, and even think about supporting it, but for the majority of retail investors, I still advise everyone to withdraw the money and put it in a large exchange.
After all, if the cold wallet is stolen, no matter what the reason, your security is questionable.
After the incident, although the market fell, the gap of bybit must be filled. Later, Ethereum rose again. The reality is that bybit's crazy buying behavior in the market is caused by.
It is conceivable how weak this market is. The buying behavior of an exchange can pull up Ethereum by hundreds of points.
Many exchanges expressed their support immediately after the incident, ensuring the safety of all user funds and willing to help bybit overcome difficulties.
It is not that they are so kind, but they are protecting this industry.
If this market collapses, the credibility will be gone, and the entire market will suffer a catastrophe.
Some people in the community proposed to roll back, and the official Ethereum also gave a clear reply to this proposal: Impossible.
There are too many things involved in rolling back, and this amount is not enough to cause damage to Ethereum. It is also to defend the immutable nature of Ethereum.
Now that bybit's purchase behavior has ended, the market will have to go on its own.
The road ahead is long, rainy, and eventful, and spot is king.

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