defioasis

Polymarket Builders have set new trading volume highs for four consecutive weeks

In the past week, the trading volume reached 144 million dollars, nearly doubling compared to the weekly trading volume in January

There are 4 Builders with weekly trading volumes exceeding 10 million dollars, namely betmoar, Chance, okbet, and PolyCop

Among them, betmoar set a new weekly trading volume high of 55 million dollars, while Chance has remained in second place for two consecutive weeks

Opinion Yesterday, the open interest saw an outflow of nearly $17.5 million, marking the second highest in history.

Since reaching a peak of over $150 million on January 22, the open interest for Opinion has dropped by nearly $50 million back to around the $100 million mark.

The overall market environment is too poor; has everyone withdrawn to top up their margin? 🥹

It's hard to say how the market will value the upcoming issuance of tokens for the first prediction market on BSC under such a terrible market condition.

In the past couple of days after the split, Probable's daily trading volume has plummeted

from exceeding 150 million USD in a single day to less than 30 million USD, and even on February 3rd it was less than 15 million USD

The main reason is that they started charging Takers, which may discourage many people from trading. Without zero fees, there is no significant advantage over the other two competitors.

Opinion launched on Binance Booster, BSC's first token issuance is imminent

However, market conditions are too poor, and user expectations for Opinion's first day FDV bets on Polymarket and Predict Fun have significantly decreased, with $500m and $1b both experiencing a plunge

- $500m has dropped to < 80%
- $1b has fallen from +50% to 33%

In addition, Aspecta's valuation of Opinion Key transactions has also decreased to approximately $820 million

Solana seems to need a reliable native prediction market

Two major aggregators are competing to bring Kalshi and Polymarket to Solana

- Jupiter has integrated Kalshi to launch the Predict frontend since October last year, and recently pushed for Polymarket to log into Solana

- dFlow has provided Predict API services for Kalshi on-chain in Solana, with Phantom wallet using the dFlow API to integrate Kalshi

Due to the lack of a native prediction market, the two major aggregators on Solana can only introduce external protocols through frontend aggregation and backend Tokenization API.

If you don't look, you won't find it. The daily token creation on the Base network has skyrocketed to over 100,000, peaking at over 120,000.

With the recent rapid growth of the large AI Agents community on moltbook, Clawnch has issued tokens for tens of thousands of Agents in the past few days, and Clawnch is backed by Clanker.

Additionally, after the Base app was fully opened, the daily posting token count of Zora Coins gradually surged to over 100,000, which to some extent reflects the activity level of the Base app. No wonder the Launchpad-as-Service protocol Doppler behind Zora Coins has recently taken the opportunity to raise some funds.

Polymarket Builders' trading volume reached a new high of approximately 120 million USD last week, with the single-day trading volume exceeding 25 million USD for the first time on January 31.

Currently, the number of Polymarket Builders is close to 140, among which 14 have a cumulative trading volume exceeding 10 million USD. In terms of cumulative trading volume, the proportion of betmoar has fallen below 50% for the first time, with an increase in mid-tier projects, but betmoar remains the most recognized Builder among users.

Meanwhile, the number of weekly traders on Polymarket Builders has surpassed 8k, and it is estimated that we should see weekly traders exceed 10k this month.

The prediction market set a historical high of over $12 billion in trading volume in January.

Among them, four prediction market platforms had trading volumes exceeding $10 million in January:
- Kalshi reached $3.72 billion
- Polymarket reached $3.39 billion
- Opinion reached $3.33 billion
- Probable reached $1.46 billion

In addition, the on-chain prediction market fees exceeded $11 million in January:
- Opinion accounted for 54.7%, reaching $6.14 million
- Polymarket (15min up/down market) accounted for 23.3%, reaching $2.62 million
- Predict Fun and Limitless reached $737,000 and $644,000 respectively.

Polymarket Builders trading volume history first exceeded 100 million dollars in a week

betmoar still occupies the top position in trading volume, exceeding 35 million dollars, but the market share has declined for three consecutive weeks, falling below 40%

The number of Builders has increased, and competition among the second-tier players has also become increasingly fierce, with each week seeming quite different

The veteran TG Bot okbet has returned, with weekly trading volume surging to over 12 million dollars, becoming one of the only two Builders this week with trading volume exceeding 10 million, seemingly siphoning off traffic and users from Polycule

In third place is Chance, which was born only two weeks ago, rising rapidly. This is a platform that allows trading on Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion, and Predict Fun aggregation terminal in one trading interface.

Meanwhile, the Vol/OI ratio of Probable has soared to over 2,000%, which is almost

- 33+ times that of Opinion
- 41+ times that of Predict Fun
- 70+ times that of Kalshi
- 75+ times that of Polymarket

Probable's single-day trading volume historically exceeds Opinion for the first time, accounting for 54.5% market share in the BSC prediction market.

Points against points, it seems that zero fees are one of the breaking points.

Specifically, on that day, Probable was driven by 3,513 independent traders with a trading volume of $114 million, with an average user trading volume of about $32,500, while Opinion's same-day average user trading volume was about $7.9k.

The top five daily trading volumes for Probable (all exceeding $5 million) were:
1. Will the Federal Reserve keep interest rates unchanged after the January 2026 meeting?
2. Will the U.S. Embassy in Venezuela reopen before March 31?
3. Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album before February 28?
4. Will Bitcoin's price reach $100,000 by January 31, 2026?
5. Will the European Central Bank change interest rates in February 2026?

An opinion on a wash trading group:

0xd006482147f77970ef07a91cd84b532433d57400
0xc23395fc42ba0b79c89f2ab942fcd73deeb355f2
0xb76ba8797850b2cc2aa3ad7299a008573f28cb9d
0x418a3003b9a3e481e2866336fca3007d9474827c
0x6c3326f52f5a251b5504099242a9cdbcc3ab87e7

If we consider the wash trading within the group, that is, appearing simultaneously as maker and taker, the total trading volume of wash trading is close to 1 billion US dollars, accounting for 10.4% of the total trading volume of Opinion.

If these group addresses only need to appear on either the maker or taker side, then the total trading volume can reach 1.33 billion US dollars, accounting for 14.6% of the total trading volume of Opinion.

Currently, DeFiLlama has adopted the second filtering method to exclude the trading volume of these wash trading group addresses.

Noticed that DeFiLlama has revised the calculation rules for Kalshi trading volume

In the past, due to Kalshi's self-reported "Volume" actually being the National Volume, it caused Kalshi's trading volume to appear particularly high

This adjustment, while data collection still comes from the Kalshi Report (after all, it's not on-chain), DeFiLlama's approach is not to directly use its "Volume", but instead to calculate Cash Volume as price * contracts_traded / 100, that is, to multiply the transaction price (how much each contract costs) by the number of contracts traded to determine how much money was actually paid for this transaction, a method that is closer to what we understand as trading volume

After the adjustment of the calculation rules, looking at Cash Volume rather than National Volume, the gap between the top three platforms Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion is actually very small

BSC prediction market daily trading volume has reached a historical second high, approaching 300 million USD

- Opinion rebounding strongly: daily trading fees captured once again exceeded 300,000 USD, market share continues to maintain over 60%

- Probable consecutive three days of new trading volume highs, market share climbing to just above 30%

Although prediction markets are booming, we must remain vigilant against PPT-style prediction market projects.

Currently, the prediction market is characterized by a highly dominant top tier, with the middle tier monopolized by a single ecosystem: Polymarket and Kalshi account for the vast majority of real trading volume and liquidity, while airdrops and incentives maintain the mid-tier and above.

The current situation of Limitless illustrates many issues. It was once highly anticipated, even competing directly with Binance; however, today Limitless's 7-day average trading volume is only $260,000, with a mere 0.06% market share, and both the week-on-week and month-on-month trading volumes are in free fall, with the token having dropped 70% since its TGE.

The trading volume of the prediction market in January has exceeded 10 billion USD, surpassing 10 billion for two consecutive months.

There is still 1/3 of the time left this month, and setting a new monthly trading volume record should not be a problem.

It is worth mentioning that last week, the trading fees captured by the prediction market reached 2.77 million USD, setting a new high for four consecutive weeks, including:
- Opinion captured over 1.5 million USD, with on-chain captured fee share exceeding 50%
- Polymarket's 15min up/down market captured nearly 800,000 USD, accounting for 28.4% of the share
- Others like Predict Fun accounted for 7% of captured fees, Football Fun accounted for 5.7%, etc.

Predict Fun trading volume and market share both reached new highs

Single-day trading volume exceeded $34 million, and the market share of BSC prediction markets first exceeded 25%

The top three events by trading volume in the past 24 hours:
- Will the Fed adjust interest rates in January?
- Will any Other team win the Super Bowl in 2026?
- Will Juventus win the Champions League title in the 2025–26 season?

The top three events by liquidity:
- Will Nvidia become the world's most valuable company before January 31?
- Will Opinion launch a token before December 31?
- Will Opinion launch a token before June 30?

The predicted market's single-day trading volume has historically exceeded 800 million dollars for the first time.

Among them, Kalshi accounts for over 500 million dollars, proving that whenever there is a sports game on the weekend, the trading volume skyrockets.

A single-day trading volume of over 1 billion dollars in the predicted market is no longer a distant dream.

Polymarket Builders weekly trading volume exceeded $85 million, reaching a new high after two weeks

betmoar continues to hold a major position, but as more Builders emerge, the weekly market share has dropped to just above 40%

The stolen Polycule fell, while another platform focusing on Copy Trading, PolyCop, rose swiftly to fill its position, with a weekly trading volume exceeding $9.3 million, accounting for 11% of the market share

It is worth noting that the total number of Polymarket Builders has surpassed 100

Opinion's expenses reached a record high of $353,600, accumulating a total revenue of $11,800,000

Fun fact: On that day, Opinion's expenses intervened between Ethereum and BNB Chain. On the same day, Ethereum's expenses were 64.97 ETH (approximately $21,630), and BNB Chain's expenses were 453.98 BNB (approximately $430,000)

Currently, the valuation forecast for Opinion's TGE by Polymarket, Predict Fun, and Probable has risen to 72%-74% for the $1 billion tier, while Aspecta's pre-market valuation for Opinion Key is around $1.1 billion.