Mr-Zhusang

2026.8.25 #btc
The week’s opening is still continuing higher. Yesterday saw consolidation followed by an upside surge, then a pullback. BTC is at 80,000, while ETH is under pressure around the 2,550 level. The weekly chart’s pullback strength is not enough, but it still has potential to push upward. Since last week, capital has been especially restless; although the big rally was driven mainly by leveraged funds and short-fuel, there is also a real inflow of market capital. Last week, US spot BTC ETFs saw inflows of nearly $2 billion, and ETH ETFs had inflows of about $697 million. However, BTC futures open interest fell from around 353,500 BTC to 312,600 BTC, suggesting that the rally was not accompanied by fresh leverage crowding in.
BTC: Yesterday and today it has been testing the 80,000 resistance. It is still consolidating and building momentum. The trend is temporarily more bullish today, especially over the 1- and 2-hour timeframes, which is more evident. After the earlier push up yesterday, there was a pullback, but it didn’t correct enough; this morning it pulled back again to the highs. The biggest risk point is that the 4- and 6-hour charts are already at elevated levels, and the 8-hour momentum shows a divergence—there may be a “bull trap” feel. Chasing blindly is not advisable; after prices accelerate upward with “needle-like spikes,” shorting often offers better risk-reward.
Support: 78,100–78,400, Resistance: 80,000, 81,300
ETH: Yesterday was relatively weak, seriously lagging behind. Today, watch whether the exchange rate shows any abnormal movement. If the exchange rate doesn’t surge, ETH will generally remain weaker than BTC. The 12-hour timeframe shows a typical momentum-divergence rally, and this kind of trend won’t last indefinitely. “Needle” spikes can be opportunities to short. Right now, the 1- and 2-hour charts still have an attack posture. Entering a short directly also carries acceleration risk.
Support: 2,460–2,480, 2,440, Resistance: 2,530–2,550, 2,570, 2,596

2026.8.24
The weekend’s two days saw much larger fluctuations than the previous period. Both longs and shorts were swept, with two intraday reversals that ended up hurting both sides. Liquidity is expected to return to normal in the short term. After this weekend’s benign pullback, the weekly candle has recovered a big bullish candle, closing back up from yesterday. This week, if price directly pulls back to confirm the weekly trend, it is still possible to go long; if it doesn’t pull back and instead rises again, be cautious of a rally that turns into a drop and forms a bearish move that leaves a long upper wick on the weekly chart. Today, Monday, the market volatility will choose a direction.
Overall the trend is still bullish, but in the short term it is in a high-range consolidation phase, and chasing at the high carries significant risk. A more prudent approach is to wait for a pullback to key support levels and confirm before entering in batches.
BTC (big coin): Before today’s direction is clear, both high shorts and low longs have opportunities; it is still consolidating at high levels. As for funding rates, BTC’s holdings-weighted and turnover-weighted funding rates are 0.0097% and 0.0091% respectively, which are in a neutral range. For ETH, the corresponding weighted funding rates are 0.0111% and 0.0123%, both higher than the 0.01% benchmark, meaning it has entered the bullish range.
Supports: 76800-77000, 75500-76000. Resistances: 77800-78200, 79500-80000.
ETH (big pie): High-level range trading with no clear direction yet. US spot ETFs have continued to flow in, with institutional demand supporting the rebound. ETH/BTC remains relatively strong, and capital has rotated to altcoins—ETH is also the altcoin leader. The daily RSI has entered the overbought zone, implying a technical pullback may be needed. But on the bigger picture, the overall bias remains bullish. Funding rates have entered the bullish range, and the derivatives market has a strong long sentiment. It is oscillating up and down over the past hour, and the 2-hour support has not been broken.
Supports: 2400-2420, 2360-2380. Resistances: 2494-2500, 2550-2570

2026.8.21 #btc
Global stock markets have been falling continuously. Only the crypto space has kept rising sharply—funds are pouring in like tides, and all the key short-term pressure levels have been broken. The maximum pullback has only held for 15 minutes. The squeeze against shorts is basically completed: the short positions that helped push prices higher have been largely cleared. The next leg of the advance now needs to be driven by genuine buying pressure, not a squeeze. The two major coins have surged enormously in the short term, so chasing blindly carries a higher risk. It’s recommended to wait for a healthy pullback before getting involved. If the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounds to around 5.3% or if risk sentiment reverses, the rally may be quickly suppressed. This rebound is largely driven by liquidations rather than sustained buying. Once the short covering squeeze finishes, the lack of follow-through could trigger a rapid reversal. But today is Friday—once the bulls’ momentum kicks in, they may keep running at full speed. This is the main force squeezing shorts to the extreme.
BTC: Today—go long first, then short later. Follow the market rhythm. Liquidity has become unusually abundant in the past few days. Funds are still continuously adding, so shorting isn’t easy. You must wait for a clear stop/defense signal. The time funds spend entering is short, and the chances of immediate withdrawal are not high. The past few days are not a normal situation—bears are in a frenzy.
Support: 72500, 70990-71300. Resistance: 75800-76200, 77300
ETH: Buy on a dip first, and short only after the acceleration produces a bearish signal. The current bull structure has not changed. 2300 is the key level to watch—if it can hold and then pull back to confirm support, the rebound could extend to 2400-2450. If it breaks below 2,200, the short-term bull structure may be damaged. After consecutive surges, the 4-hour indicators have entered the overbought zone, and a short-term pullback/repair is likely needed. ETH started rising too fast; currently BTC is catching up, and ETH is following.
Support: 2300-2320, 2260-2280. Resistance: 2380-2400, 2430, 2455, 2490

2026.8.17 #btc
A new week begins, and on Monday liquidity returns to normal. Over the weekend, for two days, price basically moved sideways along a single line with little fluctuation—this was also the weakest liquidity weekend in the past two months. This “Trump chameleon” is still out of sync, saying one thing and doing another; in negotiations he has repeatedly demonstrated toughness. Real, genuine peace is still far away. But as long as the market has brief calm, it can at least let people catch their breath. At minimum, when US stocks open on Monday, he won’t intentionally create negative news to attack the US market. After a week of calm, Monday—technically and emotionally—leans toward going long. Bulls are confident, but not decisive enough; it’s also unlikely there will be another run of consecutive big rallies.

Big cake (BTC): Consolidation with a bullish bias. For weeks, BTC has been trapped in the 62,500–66,000 range, forming a compressed market structure. The 1-hour chart shows a bullish RSI divergence (price makes a new low while RSI forms higher lows), and downside momentum is weakening. However, BTC is still below all key moving averages, so overall it remains in a downward trend. A daily close and hold above 64,500 would be a bullish confirmation. Below the daily level, there are conditions to go long.
Support: 62,200–62,500; Resistance: 63,800–64,300, 65,000–65,500

Second cake (ETH): Consolidation with a bullish bias. Going long is the first choice for the second coin, and the exchange rate has truly maintained strength. It’s back around 0.03, and it is currently compressed into an extremely narrow band of 1860–1920. The daily converging triangle has reached its end stage. 1,900 is the key watershed level on the same tier as BTC’s 63,500—if it cannot break through effectively and hold, the market will most likely rebound first and then continue to fall. In the early session, it looks like it will test this resistance; the probability of a breakout is around 60%. Timeframes below 12 hours have conditions to go long.
Support: 1,850–1,860; Resistance: 1,900–1,920, 1,935, 1,960

2026.8.13 #btc
The crypto market has started to remain choppy and continues to fluctuate through August, without truly breaking out into a larger, clear trend direction. Because the expected rate hike in September is like a sword hanging over the market’s head. Both bulls and bears are unwilling to launch aggressive moves. Yesterday’s CPI data met market expectations; after a push higher, it ultimately pulled back. The market is currently in a trough-like consolidation state.
On the 4-hour timeframe, price is moving within a choppy box range. The market is prone to wick spikes that sweep stops—avoid chasing rallies or selling into weakness. Instead, wait for price to approach the upper and lower edges of the range before setting up trades.
BTC: Range-bound consolidation. During the day, look for a rebound/repair; at night, expect direction to become clearer. Market sentiment indicators show that bears are slightly dominating the tape. Overall liquidity continues to contract, with no incremental capital entering from either side; the market maintains a pattern of narrow-range, high-level consolidation. On the daily timeframe, trading volume has started to shrink while the market enters consolidation. The MACD DIF and DEA are sticking together and flattening, and the momentum from the red/green histogram is weak. Currently, on the 1-hour timeframe, there is an accelerated bullish attack state. Momentum alignment may bring a small push higher.
Support: 63200-63500, 62200-62500. Resistance: 64500-65000, 65500-66000.
ETH: Go long first, then short later—the daily bearish cycle has not been fully completed. Technical indicators EMA7 and EMA30 are almost glued together, a typical signal of sideways consolidation. Price is trading above the midline 1885. The Bollinger Bands opening has begun to narrow, suggesting volatility is about to expand. The market is currently stabilizing at the bottom; the 1- and 2-hour timeframes have already adjusted enough, offering conditions suitable for going long. On the daily timeframe, it is still within a bearish cycle.
Support: 1872, 1850-1862. Resistance: 1900-1910, 1930, 1965

2026.8.12 #btc
A high-level range-bound consolidation for 5 days finally chose the downside. Yesterday’s price action had strong “misdirection”: throughout the day it kept luring longs, and both time and price range can easily create illusions. Once you’re stubbornly bullish and keep buying, it switches into a (slaughter-slaughter) mode. It has broken below the previous day’s breakout point. Tonight, CPI is the biggest catalyst. Around the data release, it’s normal to see quick spikes and deep wicks (“needle” moves). Don’t chase or sell into strength—wait until the market stabilizes, then observe.
In the past 24 hours, about $116.55 million was liquidated across the entire network. BTC and ETH derivatives contracts are showing a net-short position, with bearish sentiment holding the upper hand.
For BTC (Big Cake): During the day, expect range trading; in the evening, the CPI data will determine direction. BTC is currently around 63,700 and is testing the 4-hour Bollinger lower-band support. 63,700 is an important 4-hour support/resistance “swap zone.” If the candle body breaks below it, there’s a serious risk of a sharp pullback. After last night’s selloff, price is still in the repair phase. On cycles below 12 hours, conditions favor going long; on the daily chart, it remains a bearish cycle—this is a short setup logic. In other words: a year-end rebound, not a reversal.
Supports: 63,300–63,500; 62,700. Resistances: 64,800–65,300; 65,500–66,000.
For ETH (Second Cake): During the day, expect range trading; in the evening, CPI data will determine direction. After yesterday surged to 1,897 and then pulled back, it probed down to a low of 1,852 before slightly recovering. Near-term downward momentum has been somewhat released. The Bollinger midline is at 1,888, and price has already broken below that level. It is now probing the lower-band support at 1,848. Note that ETH sentiment is stronger (more aggressive), so the volatility will be larger than BTC. Setting stop-loss at the same levels is easy to get swept. Below 12 hours, look for rebounds; on the 12-hour and daily charts, bearish cycles still favor downside. In the intraday window: expect a rebound first, then look to short.
Supports: 1,850–1,855; 1,820–1,832. Resistances: 1,888; 1,900–1,930; 1,950

2026.8.11 #BTC
On Monday, efforts to push higher failed to yield results. Momentum continued to weaken; it tried the same point six times—proof that there’s confidence without strength. Ultimately, during yesterday’s U.S. stock market session, it chose to move downward. This has kicked off a daily-chart-level correction. The timeframes below 4 hours are already in place, but the pullbacks on the 8-hour, 12-hour, and daily charts have not ended yet. If today can continue the adjustment for one more day, we can wait for a bullish-side resonance.

CPI data risk: This Wednesday’s CPI is the key variable. If it comes in below expectations, rate-cut expectations will heat up, benefiting risk assets. If it comes in above expectations, the probability of a September rate hike will rise back above 50%. Before the data release, volatility has already fallen to a year-to-date low—this is “calm before the storm.” After a breakdown, volatility may expand sharply.

BTC: A trend setup of “sell the rebound, and chase short on a breakdown.” In choppy action, it’s easy to get whipsawed and stopped out, so keep exposure light and use strict stop-losses. In the early phase, price stayed in a tight range of 64,600–65,400 for a long time. After bullish momentum was continuously overdrawn, it broke through all short-term supports with a long bearish real body. Current price is hugging the lower band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands. On the order book, the主动主动 sell order ratio is as high as 83.69%, indicating extremely weak buy/sustainment strength. The short-term bearish trend has been formally established. The 4-hour MACD bearish crossover has widened; bearish momentum has not yet exhausted. RSI on the 1-hour chart is 33.84—still not in the oversold zone, so there’s room further down. Rebound strength is limited.
Support: 63,300–63,500; 62,200–62,600. Resistance: 64,300; 64,800–65,200.

ETH ("second coin"): Focus on shorting from high levels. In recent days, ETH’s price action has been consistently weaker than BTC. The daily candlestick chart is in a repair phase; the EMA30 and EMA60 are both pressing in the 1,870–1,905 zone. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands have been steadily tightening, and the EMA series are intertwined—bulls and bears are becoming more balanced. This is a classic sideways “grinding” pattern, waiting for a directional breakout.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to face downward pressure and tends to have greater volatility. After BTC breaks down, ETH’s drop is often more severe. If there is a volume-backed selloff and a bottom stabilizes, there may also be opportunities for low-long entries today. Current market liquidity is insufficient, but after a sharp drop, there will inevitably be a rebound/repair.
Support: 1,860–1,870; 1,847–1,855. Resistance: 1,890–1,900; 1,910–1,933

2026.8.9 #btc
On Sunday, the weekly K chart will close tomorrow at 8:00. August 9 marks the opening day of the BIP-110 mandatory signal window, but miner support is only about 2.42%, far below the 55% threshold required for locking. The probability of an actual chain split is relatively low; however, in a low-liquidity weekend environment, uncertainty alone is enough to amplify short-term volatility. If the weekly chart cannot close as a real bullish body covering last week’s bearish candle body, then it’s a rebound repair, not a reversal. August 9 is also a relatively critical day: both overhead resistance and below support are clearly defined. The weekly and monthly cycles are still bullish. After the daily golden cross on August 7, momentum has not accelerated over the weekend. Cycles can accelerate or pull back—there are variables.

BTC (Big Pie): Ranging with a slight bullish bias. This week, total inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are about $1.1 billion, the strongest week since April. However, technically, the 65,500–67,000 area is a solid supply zone, and the 200-day EMA (72,300) is still trending downward. Bulls and bears are currently battling at key levels. The current range direction is not clear; only once momentum expands should you look for follow-through. Overall, buying dips has the advantage. Support: 64,000–64,477, 63,500. Resistance: 65,200–65,700, 66,300–66,800

ETH (Second Pie): Ranging with a slight bullish bias. When liquidity is poor, it often becomes a breakout target for some capital. But the so-called “small independent” for ETH can perform well only if the Big Pie does not produce a sharp pullback with heavy tug-of-war. Eventual polarization will revert to consistency. Currently, price is in a 2–4 hour pullback cycle and a 1-hour rebound cycle. The cycles are not uniform, with momentum fading. One thing to watch: if today spikes higher again but cannot break above the intra-week high and then shows a high-volume bearish engulfing candle (large bearish candle on increased volume), short-seller power may concentrate and explode. Support: 1906–1911, 1850–1870. Resistance: 1927, 1939, 1955–1964, 1982

2026.8.8 #btc
Saturday and Sunday are also the worst days of the week for liquidity. But on Saturdays, because there’s no influence from US stocks, Trump is more likely to start “spouting nonsense” at this time to manipulate the market. Contracts with stop-losses are in place to guard against such sudden reversals. The probability of the Fed raising rates in September has risen to 73.6%, and a “higher for longer” rate environment suppresses valuations of risk assets. August is one of the weakest months in history; in the past 13 years, stocks have declined in 9 of those years.
Geopolitics: The Iran–US talks are currently the biggest variable. If the negotiations break down, it could trigger a rapid surge in safe-haven sentiment.
BTC (Big Pie): Range-bound consolidation. ETFs have recently shown signs of net outflows, and institutional demand has cooled somewhat. On August 1st, 62220 and on August 3rd, 62210 formed a double-bottom structure. On August 4th, a breakout above 64000 on increased volume confirmed bullish dominance. The current 4-hour chart shows price stabilizing and trading above the short-term moving averages, with short-term momentum leaning bullish.
Support: 64150-64650, 63500-64000; Resistance: 65500-66000
ETH (Second Pie): Consolidation with a slight bullish bias. After a continuous decline from the high of 1982, it bottomed around 1820 and then rebounded in line with the Big Pie. On the 4-hour timeframe, it remains in a downtrend with a descending channel where new highs keep moving lower; it is still in the consolidation-recovery phase within the bearish trend. Go long by quickly probing downward for a dip. Spike upward to hit resistance and then prepare to take shorts. Wait when trading becomes range-bound and sideways.
Support: 1905, 1880-1892, 1860; Resistance: 1920-1930, 1950, 1982

2026.8.7 #btc
Today is Friday. Watch whether volatility can increase. In recent days, the crypto market has been repeatedly oscillating within a range. When U.S. stocks see high volatility, crypto may occasionally follow, but it is still difficult to escape the range-bound structure. Each attempt to break upward has met with insufficient follow-through, with very limited funds stepping in.
Liquidity remains tight—too poor to support sustained upside. Although the pattern suggests a bullish bias, the momentum cannot meet the requirements for continuous rising. The only option is to pull back again, then accumulate strength for another push. Today, pay attention to the impact of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data on the market.

Big Bitcoin (BTC): For now, expect range-bound movement. Whether NFP can help price find direction remains to be seen. We are in a typical “pullback under pressure at the highs, higher lows forming” accumulation phase. On the daily chart, RSI is neutral. MACD is negative but narrowing, not yet forming a golden cross. ADX is weak—direction is about to be chosen. 65,000 is the key line between bulls and bears: a breakout could trigger liquidation of shorts and potentially accelerate the upside; if it meets resistance, there is risk of a pullback toward 64,000 and even 63,200. Neither side has formed clear dominance yet.
On the 1-hour chart, MACD histogram bars are negative, but the decline is shrinking. On the 4-hour chart, the bullish MACD histogram bars are contracting, but no death cross has formed. On the daily chart, the MACD negative value is narrowing, but a golden cross has not yet formed. The 4-hour MACD has shown a divergence signal, suggesting a need for a pullback.
Order book depth: buy/sell ratio is 2.00, and the thickness of resting orders below is close to twice as much.

Support: 64,000; 63,200
Resistance: 65,048; 65,400; 66,200

Big Ethereum (ETH): Still expect range-bound movement, though technically the overall bias is strong. It is rebounding in sync with BTC and repairing, but this is still a linked market—there is no independent strong trend yet. The 4-hour structure looks relatively strong, but the daily timeframe remains range-bound.
Bollinger Bands: upper band resistance at 1926; lower band support at 1844.

Liquidity: Spot Ethereum ETF flows continue with net inflows; on-chain data shows that Ethereum large-holder addresses’ holdings have risen to a historical high.
The market is repeatedly tested in the 1900–1927 range. Holding 1909 and breaking above 1924 is the prerequisite for repair continuation; if it breaks below 1892, it will return to a defensive path. The daily chart is still in a consolidation box and has not yet escaped the range-bound structure.

Support: 1890–1895, 1872, 1850–1860
Resistance: 1926, 1950, 1982

2026.8.5 #btc
Yesterday’s market saw differentiation. The rotation between the large-cap coin and the second large-cap coin (often referred to as “big pie” and “second pie”) showed staged strong upward momentum, but the momentum never truly picked up, while price highs kept printing new records. Even the strong U.S. stock market performance at night did not trigger a significant surge in crypto. In the end, it still comes down to insufficient liquidity—the “see-saw” effect where flows rotate rather than broaden. On a normal weekday, yesterday’s volatility was very small and directionless. Today, for now, we still expect range-bound consolidation. Geopolitical sentiment around the Strait of Hormuz is affecting global risk assets.

On-chain signals: The supply from long-term holders has begun to decline; old coins are circulating again. Whether demand can absorb this is the key. Currently, both BTC and ETH are in consolidation structures. The Bollinger Bands are steadily tightening, and the breakout/reversal window is approaching. In a choppy market, avoid chasing rallies or panic selling in heavy size.

Big pie: Consolidate and wait for a breakout. The prior overall peak has been gradually moving lower, and the larger downward structure has not been broken yet. If it meets resistance and falls back around 64,300–64,500, the primary target is 62,500; if it breaks down, look at the 61,300–62,200 range. If the daily close holds above 64,300 and breaks out with volume, the first target is 65,000. After capital entered on Aug 3, big pie has been trending upward slowly. This morning it already tested the 64,500 resistance area and is currently adjusting downward.

Support: 63,250, 62,500. Resistance: 64,300–64,500, 65,000–65,500

Second pie: Consolidate and wait for a directional breakout. Second pie is compressed into a narrow trading band and is oscillating while the broader trend is still neutral. In the short-term trend, bulls and bears are stuck in a stalemate. If ETH breaks below 1,787, the liquidation pressure from accumulated long positions on major CEX platforms totals about $778 million. Pay special attention to the situation where repeated failed breakouts are followed by bears suddenly gaining strength. In a range market, “sweeping stops back and forth” is the biggest risk. Currently, on the 4-hour chart, pressure levels fluctuate above and below. Cycles are not uniform, and the daily cycle is slightly biased toward the upside.

Support: 1,863, 1,850, 1,800–1,820. Resistance: 1,882–1,900, 1,920–1,945

2026.8.4 #btc
Yesterday, during the Asian-session A-share time, the market moved down in a one-way decline; during the US-session, it rose in a one-way move, and the price was swept back and forth. After BTC surged to a new high, it pulled back and closed as a bearish candle. ETH remained weak. The daily chart printed a large bearish candle; it failed to regain half of the prior advance. This was mainly due to the strong rally in US stocks overnight. This was not a market-driven behavior; without news catalysts, “market-driven” one-way declines/declines don’t happen that way. The negotiation signals released by Trump are also the main reason for the US stock rally. In reality, this isn’t a real positive development—he can’t make concessions, and Iran definitely can’t make concessions either. It’s all talk, creating conditions for US stock gains—fabricating momentum out of thin air.
BTC: focus on trading in the upper range, with low-buy positions as a supplement. Yesterday’s daily candle formed a doji; it also had a long lower wick along with an upper-wick. Many factors influenced it. Still, it was a desperate counterattack. From the daily and 12-hour charts, there are signs of capital stepping in after a base formed. The market also rode the negotiation atmosphere to go long. Even so, the weekly and monthly cycles still provide conditions to go long. The real negative factor is liquidity tightening + a failed negotiation.
Support: 63000-63000; Resistance: 64050, 64500, 65178
ETH: in the past few days it’s been relatively weaker, with trades mainly in the upper range, using low buys as a supplement. The rise and fall are determined by BTC; it doesn’t develop an independent trend. The larger timeframe downtrend structure hasn’t been broken yet. On the 4H chart, it tested 1,873 three consecutive times but failed to break through, and the volume has shrunk step by step. Watch whether BTC can break out; if it does, ETH is prone to see a sharp spike that forms a needle-like wick. After yesterday’s deep dip, the daily chart cycle has entered a bullish phase for the time being. The opportunity to truly catch lows won’t last too long.
Support: 1840-1850, 1800-1820; Resistance: 1876, 1895, 1920

2026.8.3 #btc
Only today marks the official start of the week/month battle. In the first two days, the month line was touched, but the weekly line has not been set yet. Looking at the weekly K chart: last week saw a high that turned into a lower close (a bearish reversal). This week, watch for a pullback of the weekly and Sunday lines, which may then form a bullish resonance. Currently, the 8-hour and 12-hour charts are still in a bullish continuation. At present, it is still in the nature of an oversold rebound; the daily bearish trend has not changed. It is not recommended to chase long positions with heavy exposure. Counter-trend longs need quick entry and quick exit. However, the 1–2 hour timeframe needs a correction, and the 4-hour momentum is insufficient. On Monday, liquidity should recover: once the weekend ends, liquidity gradually improves, but during the Asian session you should still be alert to the risk of “needle” spikes (brief wicks).
For BTC: short at high levels, and use low-level longs as a secondary strategy. The daily timeframe is still within a bearish trend and is also an oversold rebound. The key resistance zone at 63,500–63,800 is the intraday line between bulls and bears—if price is rejected and pulls back, the bearish trend continues; if there is a volume-backed breakout and it holds above the level, then the short-term bearish force weakens. Below the 1-hour timeframe is in a bearish correction phase, but after a needle move, a rebound may begin.
Support: 62,800; 62,200; 61,500. Resistance: 63,500; 63,800; 64,200; 64,500–65,000

2026.8.2 #btc
Starting in August opposite to July: the first day kicks off a sell-off mode. BTC’s weekly chart drops by 2 weeks’ worth of the previous gains; ETH’s weekly chart also shows a bearish body with an engulfing reversal. Pay attention to pullbacks at the monthly level. The monthly chart is still in a bottoming rebound phase, but the weekly chart may move up or down in the middle due to insufficient momentum. On Sunday, market liquidity tightens further and the risk of stop-hunts increases. The probability of a September rate hike is over 60%. Geopolitics keeps recurring, and the macro environment continues to suppress risk assets. We are currently in an oversold rebound/repair phase. BTC may repair toward the 60-minute resistance area; ETH has not even touched the 30-minute resistance level.
BTC: From near 63,100 yesterday, it further probed lower. The daily level has already broken below the key 63,500 support, and the downtrend continues. On the 4-hour chart, after the MACD lines formed a bearish crossover, they have diverged downward. Price tracks along the lower Bollinger band, with bears in control. However, after today’s second sell-off, it’s possible to form a bullish resonance below the daily level. Watch for changes in momentum.
Support: 62,000–62,500; 61,000–61,500. Resistance: 63,300—63,500; 63,800–64,200

2026.8.1 #BTC
The final day of July’s close is just too hard to hold on—on Sunday, the weekly line saw a spike and then fell back to close bearish. A contrarian move: while global financial markets are surging, the crypto market is showing its deepest adjustment instead. The “see-saw” effect of capital just means that yesterday the crypto market became the one being bled. Normally, although today is the start of the month, on Saturday none of the various “big shots” are likely to act today. Market volatility may decrease, but we still need to guard against a one-way bullish repair on Saturday. This kind of走势 has continued for 6 weeks.
BTC (Big Pie): mainly short at high levels. Be prepared for a one-way minor correction, small rebounds, sideways consolidation, and then another small pull.
The daily chart has broken below the key support at 63,500, so the bearish trend continues. On the 4-hour chart, price is consolidating around 62,900. After the MACD dual lines formed a dead cross, they are dispersing downward—rebound strength in the short term is limited.
Timeframes below 8 hours are at the bottom and have rebound conditions; the 12-hour and daily charts have not finished their adjustment yet.
Support: 62,200, 62,600, 62,800. Resistance: 63,300-63,500, 63,800, 64,300
ETH (Second Pie): mainly short at high levels. On Saturdays, it often shows independent strength—once a momentum-driven small trend forms, follow-through tends to be in the same direction. Yesterday’s low touched 1,847 and then it rebounded slightly.
The daily chart has broken below the key support at 1,876, with bears taking the lead. On the 4-hour chart, price is consolidating around 1,864, and the MACD is arranged bearishly. The weekly chart has a bearish engulfing pattern (a yin enveloping a yang), and yesterday’s daily was a big bearish candle that wiped out the prior strength. Even if there’s a one-way repair today, the upside space likely won’t be very large.
However, yesterday at 15:30 and 60-minute intervals saw volume spikes with wicks. As long as it doesn’t break the new low again, this is likely the bottom. The daily adjustment isn’t finished yet, but it could also end by going sideways instead of down—or even by completing the adjustment with a small rise.
Support: 1,850-1,860, 1,830-1,840. Resistance: 1,876-1,886, 1,895, 1,920

2026.7.31 #BTC
The last day of this month: the monthly line closes with a candle, and it is also Friday—one of the days this week when volatility is relatively high, with strong competition between bulls and bears. The likelihood of a major drop on the monthly timeframe is low. A monthly-level close near the bottom with a slightly bearish candle is essentially a foregone conclusion. On the weekly timeframe, the market is currently in a bottoming and rebound state—whether it can push higher today is the key variable for how the week’s candle will close.
On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, moving averages are sticking together, and a large-scale directional choice is imminent. The longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout afterward. Right now, it is in the late stage of a box-range consolidation, where false breakouts happen frequently. Set a strict stop-loss, control position sizing; you can observe from the middle zone and wait for clear signals at key levels before entering.
BTC: Consolidation while waiting for a breakout. On the daily timeframe, the moving-average system is leveling off, the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, indicating that a major turning point window is approaching. Price is below the 50-day EMA and far below the 200-day moving average at 71,000. Direction is unclear; everyone is waiting for a clear signal. In the past two days, BTC’s movement has slightly strengthened. On intraday, the larger cycles of 8 and 12 hours are still in a bullish state with the time and space needed for an advance. Below 1 hour, the market is ranging and pulling back and forth.
Support: 64300-64500, 63500-63800, 62000-62500. Resistance: 65200, 65700, 67000-67500

2026.7.29 #btc
Before the interest-rate decision, market sentiment is largely cautious, with frequent pin-stick fluctuations. High-leverage contract risk is extremely high. Liquidity is relatively weak in the early-morning hours. Yesterday’s price action showed frequent upward and downward pin wicks on the daily chart, triggering both long and short liquidations.
Technical outlook: The three RSI lines are clustered around the 45 area at low values. RSI6 is below RSI12, forming a hidden bearish crossover, indicating weakening short-term momentum. For perpetual contracts, the funding rate is skewed negatively. Options skew is right-tilted, suggesting a surge in demand for downside hedging.
BTC (big pie): High sell-off then low buyback, with no clear direction and contracting volume. In cycle behavior 1 and 2 hours, expect pullbacks from the highs. From 4, 6, 8, and 12 hours, the base at the bottom provides conditions suitable for going long. Overall, expect a small pullback first, then watch for a bullish convergence pattern. However, this time—besides the impact of news—short-side momentum below the zero line on the daily chart has strengthened. In reality, the market is consolidating while waiting for the meeting decision to land; within the next 1–2 hours, volatility will increase noticeably. Pay attention to timing.
Support: 63500, 62400-62800, 61600; Resistance: 64400-64800, 65567, 65988

2026.7.28 #btc
These are turbulent times, marked by dramatic rises and falls. Yesterday’s market saw a roller-coaster move. The main reason is that after today’s sharp plunge in the Japan and Korea stock markets, the crypto market suddenly dropped in a straight line within one hour, breaking through multiple key support levels. After the crash, prices are already close to the breakout point. If the support holds here, the market is likely to enter a period of sideways consolidation. At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 30, the Fed interest rate decision will be announced. The market expects rates to remain unchanged (3.50%-3.75%), but the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 82%. With the FOMC meeting just around the corner, increased volatility is inevitable.
BTC: Weak. On rallies, shorting is the main strategy. The 1-hour and 2-hour pullbacks have already adjusted, but the 4, 6, 8, and 12-hour adjustments are not yet fully done. Moreover, the daily chart’s momentum is clearly strengthening toward the downside, and it’s not far from the previous low—so consolidation may choose a direction from here. The short-side forces have already unleashed a move; now price is close to the previous wave’s breakout level. Chasing shorts is about waiting for a break of support, while going long is about expecting support to hold—both sides have reasons. For a more prudent approach, wait until the cycle completes. There are 3 more days left this month. From the perspective of the monthly chart, the downside likely won’t be too deep.
Support: 62666, 62300, 61200-61700, Resistance: 64300-64600, 65200

2026.7.27 #btc
Weekend wrap-up: the weekly chart closes green, and the weekly chart achieves a 4-session winning streak. This month has been steadily climbing; July has become a textbook rebound month. Although the external environment is harsh, the bottom of the large-cycle timeframe has already been formed. There is still one week left this month. Most likely, rebounds remain the priority; the real pullback may occur in the few days around the month-end transition. Volatility before the FOMC on Wednesday may be amplified. From Sunday to Monday: choppy rebound. Wednesday’s FOMC is the biggest inflection point of the month. On Thursday: GDP + Core PCE data.
BTC (big coin): go long on dips at higher altitudes. The probability of maintaining a rebound on Monday remains high, but after last night’s surge, there is a need for a retest on sub-1–2 hour timeframes. At high levels, there will be a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. After today’s pullback has been sufficiently stabilized, it is still an opportunity to set up long positions. This week still has the desire to push higher and potentially additional catch-up upside. The rebound structure on the monthly timeframe still has room and time.
Support: 64500-64950, 643800; Resistance: 65600, 66200-6560