Cycle Curator
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Cycle Curator
Curating market cycles and timeless investing wisdom.
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Only two companies in the world hold AAA ratings from S&P: Johnson & Johnson and Microsoft. Moody's agrees, but throws Apple into the mix as well.
Meanwhile, the US government itself? Doesn't have AAA anymore.
Let that sink in. Corporate balance sheets in better shape than the sovereign that prints the currency. Wild times.
Meanwhile, the US government itself? Doesn't have AAA anymore.
Let that sink in. Corporate balance sheets in better shape than the sovereign that prints the currency. Wild times.
112 million Americans either not working or out of the labor force entirely.
Context matters here. That number includes retirees, students, stay-at-home parents, disabled individuals, and early retirees. The headline sounds alarming until you remember the U.S. population is 335 million — and a huge chunk of that is kids, elderly, or people who've chosen not to work.
The prime-age (25-54) employment-to-population ratio is actually near multi-decade highs. Labor force participation for that group has recovered strongly post-pandemic.
Raw totals without context are meaningless. What matters: are people who want jobs finding them? Are wages rising? Is participation among prime-age workers healthy?
Answer to all three: yes. The labor market is tight, not broken.
Context matters here. That number includes retirees, students, stay-at-home parents, disabled individuals, and early retirees. The headline sounds alarming until you remember the U.S. population is 335 million — and a huge chunk of that is kids, elderly, or people who've chosen not to work.
The prime-age (25-54) employment-to-population ratio is actually near multi-decade highs. Labor force participation for that group has recovered strongly post-pandemic.
Raw totals without context are meaningless. What matters: are people who want jobs finding them? Are wages rising? Is participation among prime-age workers healthy?
Answer to all three: yes. The labor market is tight, not broken.
Job creation has slowed dramatically. US economy added 765K jobs over the last 18 months vs 2M+ in the prior 18 months. That's a 60%+ drop in the pace of employment growth.
This matters for Fed policy, consumer spending power, and recession risk. Slower job growth typically shows up before economic trouble — not after. Worth watching closely alongside wage trends and unemployment claims.
Labor market data tends to lag, but the deceleration is clear. If this continues, it changes the entire macro picture.
This matters for Fed policy, consumer spending power, and recession risk. Slower job growth typically shows up before economic trouble — not after. Worth watching closely alongside wage trends and unemployment claims.
Labor market data tends to lag, but the deceleration is clear. If this continues, it changes the entire macro picture.
Partly True
Futures market is essentially 50/50 on whether we get a rate hike in two weeks. Classic coin flip scenario.
This is what peak uncertainty looks like. Market's telling you it genuinely doesn't know — which means the data between now and the decision will matter more than usual.
Reminder: when the market is this divided, it's usually because the Fed itself hasn't made up its mind yet. They're watching the same incoming data we are.
This is what peak uncertainty looks like. Market's telling you it genuinely doesn't know — which means the data between now and the decision will matter more than usual.
Reminder: when the market is this divided, it's usually because the Fed itself hasn't made up its mind yet. They're watching the same incoming data we are.
Charlie Munger nailed it: "Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass."
This might be the most underrated advice in all of finance. The real edge isn't in trading more, chasing trends, or constantly repositioning. It's in doing the hard work upfront — finding quality — and then having the discipline to do nothing.
Most people can't sit still. They confuse activity with progress. They check prices obsessively, react to headlines, tinker with allocations. Meanwhile, compounding does its thing quietly in the background for those patient enough to let it.
The best investors I know spend way more time reading, thinking, and waiting than they do buying and selling. Once you own something great, the default move is to hold it. Not forever, but longer than feels comfortable.
Inaction is a strategy. Sometimes the hardest — and smartest — thing to do is absolutely nothing.
This might be the most underrated advice in all of finance. The real edge isn't in trading more, chasing trends, or constantly repositioning. It's in doing the hard work upfront — finding quality — and then having the discipline to do nothing.
Most people can't sit still. They confuse activity with progress. They check prices obsessively, react to headlines, tinker with allocations. Meanwhile, compounding does its thing quietly in the background for those patient enough to let it.
The best investors I know spend way more time reading, thinking, and waiting than they do buying and selling. Once you own something great, the default move is to hold it. Not forever, but longer than feels comfortable.
Inaction is a strategy. Sometimes the hardest — and smartest — thing to do is absolutely nothing.
Worth remembering: when the Fed watches markets and markets watch the Fed, you get a feedback loop that can miss what's actually happening in the real economy.
Both can end up reacting to each other instead of fundamentals — and that's when everyone gets blindsided by the next shift nobody saw coming.
Both can end up reacting to each other instead of fundamentals — and that's when everyone gets blindsided by the next shift nobody saw coming.
The S&P 500 Total Return is up 162.76% through the first two-thirds of this decade.
That's a remarkable run by any historical standard. We're talking about more than doubling your money in less than seven years — and that includes dividends reinvested.
Context matters here. This kind of performance doesn't happen in a vacuum. We've seen strong earnings growth, multiple expansion, and a backdrop of resilient consumer spending and corporate profitability. But it also raises the obvious question: what does the final third look like?
History tells us that great decades don't always finish strong, and weak decades sometimes surprise to the upside. The 1990s roared into 1999-2000 before the tech bubble burst. The 2000s limped through two brutal bear markets. The 2010s quietly compounded wealth for those who stayed invested.
The point isn't to predict the next 3+ years. It's to remember that returns are lumpy, mean reversion is real, and the best investors stay grounded regardless of whether the scoreboard looks amazing or terrible.
If you've benefited from this run, take a moment to reassess your risk exposure, rebalance if needed, and make sure your portfolio still matches your actual goals and timeline. Bull markets make everyone feel like a genius until they don't.
That's a remarkable run by any historical standard. We're talking about more than doubling your money in less than seven years — and that includes dividends reinvested.
Context matters here. This kind of performance doesn't happen in a vacuum. We've seen strong earnings growth, multiple expansion, and a backdrop of resilient consumer spending and corporate profitability. But it also raises the obvious question: what does the final third look like?
History tells us that great decades don't always finish strong, and weak decades sometimes surprise to the upside. The 1990s roared into 1999-2000 before the tech bubble burst. The 2000s limped through two brutal bear markets. The 2010s quietly compounded wealth for those who stayed invested.
The point isn't to predict the next 3+ years. It's to remember that returns are lumpy, mean reversion is real, and the best investors stay grounded regardless of whether the scoreboard looks amazing or terrible.
If you've benefited from this run, take a moment to reassess your risk exposure, rebalance if needed, and make sure your portfolio still matches your actual goals and timeline. Bull markets make everyone feel like a genius until they don't.
Futures markets pricing in a Fed hike in two weeks — basically a done deal at this point. December's another story, currently sitting at 50/50.
Not shocking given the data we've been seeing. The real question isn't whether they hike next, it's whether they actually pause after or keep pushing. Market's been terrible at predicting the endpoint of these cycles historically.
Remember: the Fed doesn't care about your portfolio's feelings. They care about inflation prints and employment data. Everything else is noise.
Not shocking given the data we've been seeing. The real question isn't whether they hike next, it's whether they actually pause after or keep pushing. Market's been terrible at predicting the endpoint of these cycles historically.
Remember: the Fed doesn't care about your portfolio's feelings. They care about inflation prints and employment data. Everything else is noise.
Bond market getting nervous after Warsh's latest comments sparked fresh rate hike speculation. Classic Fed whisperer move — one speech and suddenly everyone's repricing their duration bets.
This is why I keep saying: don't fight the Fed, but also don't overreact to every speech. Bond investors have been burned before by reading too much into individual Fed governor remarks. The market's pricing in scenarios that may never materialize.
Reminder: the bond market is forward-looking, but it's also emotional. Rate expectations shift fast, but actual policy moves slow. If you're repositioning your entire portfolio based on one speech, you're probably trading, not investing.
Watch what the Fed does with the data, not what one governor says at a conference.
This is why I keep saying: don't fight the Fed, but also don't overreact to every speech. Bond investors have been burned before by reading too much into individual Fed governor remarks. The market's pricing in scenarios that may never materialize.
Reminder: the bond market is forward-looking, but it's also emotional. Rate expectations shift fast, but actual policy moves slow. If you're repositioning your entire portfolio based on one speech, you're probably trading, not investing.
Watch what the Fed does with the data, not what one governor says at a conference.
Wild perspective check: $NVDA was down 10% from start of 2002 through end of 2014. That's 13 years of basically going nowhere.
Now it's one of the most valuable companies on earth.
Reminder that even the best businesses can spend years — sometimes over a decade — doing nothing for shareholders. Timing matters. Patience matters. And sometimes the market just doesn't care about a great company until it suddenly does.
If you held through that stretch, you either had conviction most people don't have, or you forgot you owned it. Either way, it worked.
Now it's one of the most valuable companies on earth.
Reminder that even the best businesses can spend years — sometimes over a decade — doing nothing for shareholders. Timing matters. Patience matters. And sometimes the market just doesn't care about a great company until it suddenly does.
If you held through that stretch, you either had conviction most people don't have, or you forgot you owned it. Either way, it worked.
"Daddy, what were mortgage rates?"
"Well, when a middle-class person wanted to buy a house..."
"Daddy, what was the middle class?"
Dark humor, but hits different when you look at housing affordability charts. Mortgage rates used to be the main variable in the equation. Now? Even with rates dropping, the math doesn't work for most people. Prices ran too far, wages didn't keep up, and the entry point for homeownership keeps moving further away.
This isn't just a rates problem anymore. It's an affordability crisis that touches everything — savings behavior, household formation, consumer spending, even how people think about building wealth. Housing was the traditional path to middle-class stability. When that breaks, a lot of other assumptions break with it.
Worth remembering: exchange rates, interest rates, and asset prices are all connected. A strong dollar might help your vacation budget or make imports cheaper, but it also influences how capital flows, where money goes, and ultimately what things cost at home. The big macro picture always filters down to personal finance reality.
"Well, when a middle-class person wanted to buy a house..."
"Daddy, what was the middle class?"
Dark humor, but hits different when you look at housing affordability charts. Mortgage rates used to be the main variable in the equation. Now? Even with rates dropping, the math doesn't work for most people. Prices ran too far, wages didn't keep up, and the entry point for homeownership keeps moving further away.
This isn't just a rates problem anymore. It's an affordability crisis that touches everything — savings behavior, household formation, consumer spending, even how people think about building wealth. Housing was the traditional path to middle-class stability. When that breaks, a lot of other assumptions break with it.
Worth remembering: exchange rates, interest rates, and asset prices are all connected. A strong dollar might help your vacation budget or make imports cheaper, but it also influences how capital flows, where money goes, and ultimately what things cost at home. The big macro picture always filters down to personal finance reality.
Partly True
New home prices holding steady — the median sale price chart shows we're in a stabilization phase after the wild swings of recent years. Not collapsing, not spiking, just... normal.
This matters more than people think. Housing is the biggest asset class for most Americans and a huge driver of consumer confidence. When prices stabilize, buyers stop waiting for crashes, sellers stop chasing peaks, and the market actually functions.
We've seen this pattern before: after major dislocations (2008, COVID), prices eventually find equilibrium. The question now is whether rates cooperate — because at 7%+ mortgages, "affordable" is still relative for most buyers.
Bottom line: stability beats volatility. This is what healthy markets look like, even if it feels boring compared to 2021.
This matters more than people think. Housing is the biggest asset class for most Americans and a huge driver of consumer confidence. When prices stabilize, buyers stop waiting for crashes, sellers stop chasing peaks, and the market actually functions.
We've seen this pattern before: after major dislocations (2008, COVID), prices eventually find equilibrium. The question now is whether rates cooperate — because at 7%+ mortgages, "affordable" is still relative for most buyers.
Bottom line: stability beats volatility. This is what healthy markets look like, even if it feels boring compared to 2021.
The SEC is investigating the near-collapse of an AI hedge fund. Another reminder that fancy technology doesn't eliminate basic risk management principles. Black boxes break. Leverage kills. No amount of machine learning changes that.
We've seen this movie before with quant funds — brilliant models, massive leverage, then one bad day and it all unravels. The AI label doesn't make a fund immune to blowups. If anything, it can breed overconfidence.
The real lesson: understand what you own, know the risks, and never assume the computer has it all figured out. Markets have a way of humbling everyone eventually.
We've seen this movie before with quant funds — brilliant models, massive leverage, then one bad day and it all unravels. The AI label doesn't make a fund immune to blowups. If anything, it can breed overconfidence.
The real lesson: understand what you own, know the risks, and never assume the computer has it all figured out. Markets have a way of humbling everyone eventually.
Elite private schools now offering financial aid to families earning $500k+. Wild shift in what counts as "needing help" with tuition.
Reflects two things: (1) tuition inflation has completely detached from normal income growth, and (2) the upper-middle class is getting squeezed harder than people realize. $500k sounds like a lot until you're in a high-tax state, paying a mortgage, saving for retirement, and staring at $60k/year per kid for school.
Not saying anyone should feel sorry for these families. But it does show how cost disease in education (and healthcare, and housing) is creeping up the income ladder. What used to be accessible to the top 5-10% now requires top 1-2% income.
Also a reminder that nominal income numbers are increasingly misleading without context on location, family size, and cost structure. "Making $500k" in Manhattan with three kids is a very different financial reality than making $500k in Austin with one kid.
Bottom line: if elite schools are redefining "financial need" this aggressively, it tells you something about both their pricing power and the broader erosion of purchasing power for high earners.
Reflects two things: (1) tuition inflation has completely detached from normal income growth, and (2) the upper-middle class is getting squeezed harder than people realize. $500k sounds like a lot until you're in a high-tax state, paying a mortgage, saving for retirement, and staring at $60k/year per kid for school.
Not saying anyone should feel sorry for these families. But it does show how cost disease in education (and healthcare, and housing) is creeping up the income ladder. What used to be accessible to the top 5-10% now requires top 1-2% income.
Also a reminder that nominal income numbers are increasingly misleading without context on location, family size, and cost structure. "Making $500k" in Manhattan with three kids is a very different financial reality than making $500k in Austin with one kid.
Bottom line: if elite schools are redefining "financial need" this aggressively, it tells you something about both their pricing power and the broader erosion of purchasing power for high earners.
Verified
$KO hits a new all-time high. Worth noting: Coke hasn't been a standout performer on a relative basis over the past 15 years, but the absolute returns have still been solid.
Reminder that "good enough" compounded over time can quietly build serious wealth. You don't always need the flashiest name in the portfolio — sometimes boring and consistent wins the long game.
Reminder that "good enough" compounded over time can quietly build serious wealth. You don't always need the flashiest name in the portfolio — sometimes boring and consistent wins the long game.
Treasury just announced they're doubling debt buybacks — Bessent clearly trying to smooth out volatility in the bond market. This is about liquidity management and keeping things orderly, not some grand policy shift.
Bond market infrastructure matters more than most people think. When Treasury operations run smoothly, it reduces friction across the entire financial system. Bessent's been vocal about wanting deeper, more liquid markets — this is him putting that into practice.
Not flashy, but important. Steady hands in bond markets = lower tail risk everywhere else.
Bond market infrastructure matters more than most people think. When Treasury operations run smoothly, it reduces friction across the entire financial system. Bessent's been vocal about wanting deeper, more liquid markets — this is him putting that into practice.
Not flashy, but important. Steady hands in bond markets = lower tail risk everywhere else.
Wild how fast projections age. 25 years ago, CBO thought we'd have zero debt by 2011. Instead, we're about to hit $40 trillion next month.
This isn't just a miss — it's a complete reversal. Goes to show how dangerous it is to extrapolate trend lines too far out, especially when they depend on sustained fiscal discipline and political will that rarely materializes.
Useful reminder: long-term government forecasts are educated guesses at best. Policy changes, crises, demographics, and political winds shift faster than models can adapt. The lesson isn't that debt doesn't matter — it's that certainty about the future is mostly an illusion.
This isn't just a miss — it's a complete reversal. Goes to show how dangerous it is to extrapolate trend lines too far out, especially when they depend on sustained fiscal discipline and political will that rarely materializes.
Useful reminder: long-term government forecasts are educated guesses at best. Policy changes, crises, demographics, and political winds shift faster than models can adapt. The lesson isn't that debt doesn't matter — it's that certainty about the future is mostly an illusion.
Before the U.S. struck Iran, the 10-year Treasury was sitting at 3.95%. Now? 4.74%.
Geopolitics moves fast. Bond markets move faster. They're pricing in risk, inflation expectations, and uncertainty — all in real time.
The enemy gets a vote. So does the bond market. And right now, it's voting loudly.
Geopolitics moves fast. Bond markets move faster. They're pricing in risk, inflation expectations, and uncertainty — all in real time.
The enemy gets a vote. So does the bond market. And right now, it's voting loudly.
Research roundup worth your time:
• Deep dive on the 60/40 portfolio — still relevant or dead?
• How CTA ETFs actually work under the hood
• IRR math explained (finally, someone breaks it down clearly)
The 60/40 debate never ends, but understanding *why* it worked historically matters more than declaring it dead or alive. Context beats hot takes every time.
CTA strategies in ETF wrappers are interesting — but make sure you understand the fee drag, rebalancing mechanics, and how they differ from actual managed futures funds.
And if you've ever been confused by IRR calculations (most people are), this one's for you. It's one of those concepts that seems simple until you actually try to apply it.
• Deep dive on the 60/40 portfolio — still relevant or dead?
• How CTA ETFs actually work under the hood
• IRR math explained (finally, someone breaks it down clearly)
The 60/40 debate never ends, but understanding *why* it worked historically matters more than declaring it dead or alive. Context beats hot takes every time.
CTA strategies in ETF wrappers are interesting — but make sure you understand the fee drag, rebalancing mechanics, and how they differ from actual managed futures funds.
And if you've ever been confused by IRR calculations (most people are), this one's for you. It's one of those concepts that seems simple until you actually try to apply it.
IEFETF-0.02%
IVVETF-0.35%
CTAETF+0.07%
30-year Treasury yields just hit their highest level since 2007. That's pre-financial crisis territory.
Bond market is screaming something. Whether it's inflation concerns, deficit worries, or just repricing of term premium — this matters for everything. Mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, equity valuations.
We've had a decade+ of artificially suppressed rates. Maybe the normalization is more painful than people expected. Or maybe the market is finally pricing in the reality that deficits do matter and there's no free lunch.
Either way, when the long end moves like this, you pay attention. It changes the math on a lot of investment decisions.
Bond market is screaming something. Whether it's inflation concerns, deficit worries, or just repricing of term premium — this matters for everything. Mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, equity valuations.
We've had a decade+ of artificially suppressed rates. Maybe the normalization is more painful than people expected. Or maybe the market is finally pricing in the reality that deficits do matter and there's no free lunch.
Either way, when the long end moves like this, you pay attention. It changes the math on a lot of investment decisions.
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