Crypto-常山赵子龙

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Analyze a wave of data:

Figure 1: When the wave dropped to around 40,000 in the early morning of Saturday, the spot net buying of big cakes hit a new high in the past two months, and the market finally bottomed out and rebounded;

Figure 2: This weekend, the net difference between buying and selling in the spot market of big cakes was extremely small, and it also hit a new low in the past two months;

Figure 3: Since the big pie spot ETF incident came to light, various Chinese KOLs have reached a climax and have predicted whether 100,000 or 200,000 will be the peak of this bull market. CME has currently reduced its position of 25,000 big pie, worth 10 Around 100 million U.S. dollars, the pie has retraced 20%;

Figure 4: The main spot leverage bulls on Big B Online have stopped reducing their positions, and have successively added 3,000 large pie long orders in the past week;

Summary: Building a bottom requires more time and patience: the last bull market took about 2 months to build a bottom after each major correction; building a top takes a relatively short time: the last bull market maintained the top before each major correction. The time range is basically about one week; I think the current bottom range of the market needs to be confirmed, and those who pursue safer transactions can stay on the sidelines for the time being;

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I didn’t expect that a tweet evaluating the quality of Ni Da’s data analysis over the weekend caused such a big response. Ni Da has also responded accordingly, so let’s continue to talk about this matter, and also talk about analysis and trading. , KOL values, these are three issues that everyone likes to discuss, and the truth always becomes clearer with each passing day;

First of all, why did that tweet cause such widespread discussion? I believe that anyone who has read his tweets for a while, whether they are KOL or not, will have the same feeling as me. But why no one has said it? The reason is very simple. : If you are an ordinary Twitter user, after you point out his problem, your exposure will not be seen by others; if you are a KOL, because Ni Da is a typical good old person, he follows 3,500 people on Twitter. This can better attract traffic. Twitter’s recommendation algorithm will recommend you to the fans of the people you follow. Ni Da always actively replies to fans with some nonsense. He seems very friendly, both in terms of his personality and the content of his tweets. They are all in the top [Tai Chi Master] style, so few KOLs dare to complain about Ni Da. Once you complain, it is easy to be backlashed by Ni Da’s little white fans who have no trading system;

Before I complained, I also thought about this issue. I was also worried that after posting, some idiot fans would scold me for pretending to be a moral guardian of the cryptocurrency industry. Fans who follow me should know that I complained about Ni Da once before. At that time, he took a tweet Special account promotion, let everyone pay attention to a pyramid scheme scam account [Mr. J]. At that time, I advised him to cherish feathers and not accept such junk advertisements. He can try to make transactions based on his own set of macro data, and he can make commissions in the future. I stood and made money, but at that time I was directly attacked by Ni Da’s idiot fans. A group of people scolded me for pretending to be aloof. Now let’s go and take a look at Mr. J. What are he tweeting? If you are not mentally retarded You should be able to see it - the United Native Dog Project team was blatantly cutting leeks; now when it comes to this matter, Ni Da not only does not feel guilty, but also shamelessly said that he should have blocked me at that time. I just want to say: You can What a shame, why don’t you pretend now? You took someone else's advertising money and diverted your fans there, and now they are there to promote local dogs. When someone mentions this, you just pretend to be stupid and make another guess: Ni Da's advertising income from that tweet There are about 10,000 u;

Next, let’s talk about analysis and trading. Someone also mentioned that analysts and traders are two factions. Analysts are analysts and traders are traders. Analysts do not necessarily do trading or trading is not necessarily good. Trading Analysts may not necessarily have as comprehensive a field of vision as analysts. I agree with this view. In the financial market, analysts are indeed a specialized profession, and excellent analysis teams produce research reports for a fee. Analysts They will also state all possibilities in the analysis report, but in the end the analysts will often give a relatively strong direction and conduct data demonstration. If the whole article was about Tai Chi, I would have retired 20 My grandfather can also be an analyst at 20 years old;

What is even more unacceptable to everyone is that you were doing Tai Chi throughout the analysis, but afterwards you came out to brag, saying that you had analyzed something? This kind of behavior is simply disgusting, and you have become someone you hate in life. It is best for you, such analysts, to trade a few times yourself, and conduct transactions based on your analysis to verify the value of your analysis. Only when you lose money Only then will you realize how useless your analysis is, only then will you learn to respect trading, and only then will you not confidently perform Tai Chi massage when others question you;

Let’s talk about the values ​​of KOLs again. Needless to say, I often criticize the KOLs who charge fees, sell courses, sell indicators, and promote local dogs. My family is full of crazy people. As long as I can make a little money by trading, I will do it. I won’t teach others how to make money there for a fee, let alone share with others the potential to get rich in Dogecoin; KOLs like Ni Da who rely on hydrology to monetize their traffic should have been honest about hydrology and not always fud at the bottom. , show your own analysis at the climax of the top, do not trade, and read some news and news all day long, there is a high probability that you will fall into emotions unconsciously, and everyone will complain about shorts at the bottom and longs at the top? If only a few people complain about you, it may be someone else's problem, but when many people complain about you, is it also someone else's problem? You can say whether you like it or not, and get out if you don’t like it, but you are eating the traffic, while everyone is trading with real money;

If you really want to prove that you are awesome, then make a real offer. You don’t need much capital, 100u or 1000u is fine. Trade according to your analysis. Everyone can review the offer afterwards. Everyone will respect you regardless of profit or loss. Adults, you should be able to think of such a simple self-certification method. If you don’t want to do it, then don’t pretend. People who are real traders will be very disgusted when they see it;

Let’s talk about Ni Da saying that he will reply to well-founded questions. It’s really funny. I questioned the errors in your data and gave my data. Isn’t that reasonable enough? You haven’t responded yet to how 2 billion USD was leaked out of the copycat after the news of Binance being fined. You really ask yourself if the two sentences you said at that time were fud, [withdrawal wave], [every time] Cash withdrawals can be made every minute] Do these two sentences require a PhD degree to be understood as beneficial?

I only follow 30 people on Twitter. I will not follow hundreds or thousands of people against my will just for traffic. I don’t even like to post pretentious comments on other KOLs to attract traffic. I also never follow hot news. I still do the same. Thanks to my high-quality tweets, I have more than 20,000 fans. I am not open to advertising yet. There are many people looking for me to advertise. I now also know how much it costs to advertise. How many ads do I advertise in a month? My salary at work is high. I dare to ask Ni Da if he can afford a month's advertising fee. Do you dare to publish your advertising fee income? But I saw you selling poverty there before. What are you talking about? The fund and YouTube fund are distributed to everyone. This kind of trick can only deceive fans. Also, how many shares did they give you for that low-level project that you keep promoting in every tweet? Only through commitment can we continue to promote tirelessly;

At the end: Compared with a year ago, Ni Da has now become a person who is seeking fame and reputation. After being exposed by others in the emperor's new clothes, he began to show his embarrassment, and the arrogant people in the tweet circle are still there for it. Lick him with some poor traffic and comfort him. I believe that the truth will always become clearer and clearer;

#BTC #ETH
Since Ni Da has blocked me, I have nothing to worry about. Let me talk about my views as a real trader on Ni Da’s various data analysis views;

The reason Ni Da blocked me was because he published a tweet during the Binance fine incident at the end of November. I pointed out that there were two problems in the tweet: one: there were data errors; two: the words implied FUD. It was very serious, and there were suspicions of gimmicks and eye-catching. I thought that Ni Da Da stood up to discuss the authenticity of the data he mentioned, but he was blocked;

Now let’s talk about what Ni Da’s analysis has been like in the past year, and whether it is very helpful to people who are actually doing transactions;

Let’s use Figure 2 as an example: Ni Da’s typical analysis ideas repeatedly show both negative and bullish views in one tweet. I don’t know what other people think after seeing this. My feeling is: As a real trader, after seeing this kind of analysis tweet, it is really disgusting, and what is even more disgusting is that he can brag about it afterwards and say that he has analyzed it correctly; published later If you have a negative view, you will soon express a bullish view. Aren’t you awesome at both ups and downs?

If someone questions, Ni Da will often say that you are betting too much on dogs. When did I clearly say that it is a bad thing or a big profit? I don’t know if Ni Da is pretending to be confused, or he is really unaware of his reasoning. There are too many meaningless analyzes and opinions in text analysis;

Let me talk about the big pie ETF that Ni Da has been talking about before. I also pay attention to the news, but I rarely read the news or guess the final result of the news based on the words in the speech. Because this is obviously a very low-level analysis, but Ni Da often likes to rely on one-word analysis that is almost obscene without much rational and logical support. Anyone who has done transactions for more than half a year will not do this. To analyze, I believe that people who are actually doing transactions can empathize with it;

Figure 3 and Figure 4: These are two random tweets that Ni Da has published about ETFs before. In fact, among all Ni Da’s views on ETFs, although he did not clearly state his views, this is in line with Ni Da’s consistent policy. Tai Chi style, but I believe that as a normal person, if I look at Ni Da’s analysis of ETFs in recent months, Ni Da clearly implies that ETFs are hype, and actually believes that the negative attributes are very negative. This is why Ni Da has been constantly criticized recently. Fan diss, in my opinion, this is a normal person's reaction, but Ni Da turned around and boasted that he was the bottom at a certain position. It was because you didn't buy the bottom, it was because you were short, and you are a betting dog. ;

Finally, let me directly talk about my overall views on Ni Da:

1: Ni Da’s tweet analysis is of little help for trading, very little help for short-cycle traders, and often misleading in the opposite direction for long-cycle traders;

You may think that those who analyze macro data and news should find it easier to grasp the bottom and top of the big cycle, but what I have observed is that Ni Da is more misleading to long-term traders, and often makes very direct comments at the bottom. For negative tweets, post very direct positive tweets at the top;

The reason behind it is simple: news analysts all have serious emotional thinking and hindsight thinking. That is, during the rising and falling stages, they dare not express clear opinions. They often start to express their opinions when they are the most panicked and craziest. The result is that everyone sees short calls at the bottom and long calls at the top;

2: Ni Da does not do trading himself, so he is not sensitive to the market. Many analyzes are often done for the sake of analysis, and he falls into self-pleasure. However, many of his fans are doing trading, especially contract trading, because the news is not good. Macro data cannot guide trading, so there will be disputes;

Three: Trading is really your own business. When you go short or lose money, you blame other people for the reason. This is a very immature trading thinking. Therefore, no matter what Ni Da’s analysis is, he should be the biggest one. the responsible person;

#BTC #ETH

Hello everyone, my name is Changshan Zhao Zilong. I saw someone stealing my tweet analysis in Binance Plaza, so I started to settle in Binance Plaza today to provide you with high-quality data analysis and learn the unique data analysis practice in the currency circle together. Skill;

Analyze a wave of BTC data:

Figure 1: After reducing its position yesterday, CME has completed the operation of increasing its position. It has not reached a new high yet, and CME’s main force still needs to wait for a clear exit signal;

Figure 2: Binance holdings finally began to increase rapidly;

Figure 3: OK positions also began to increase rapidly;

Figure 4: The trend of the main force of Big B spot leverage reducing positions is completely confirmed;

Summary: The last wave of peaking begins, large investors and institutions begin to leave the market, and retail investors begin to enter the market crazily. As for how high it can reach, it is impossible to predict the point based on the data. The data reflects the current market in real time; guessing the point can put K Cut the line to the weekly level, and then look at the previous transaction-intensive area to get the resistance level. This is a very basic and simple technique for looking at K. Those who pretend to be magicians and shout out points every day also look at it this way. There is no exclusive news or advanced indicators; the resistance range is between 38-42, 10 points. Accumulate retail chips and finally reach the long liquidation conditions. The liquidation point of the waterfall will be around 31-33;