小象c

#黄金突破下行趋势线 directly pulled up 10%. The main reasons are that employment has clearly weakened, inflation has eased, and expectations for rate cuts have warmed up. The situation in the Middle East has not improved either. In addition, with U.S. stocks now at historical highs, many institutions have started using protective strategies.

Trading approach:

If you already hold gold:
You can keep the core position. However, after the price has surged sharply in the short term, it’s more suitable to take profit in batches rather than selling everything at once. As long as the price hasn’t continued to break down and close persistently below around 4,000, the medium-term structure hasn’t been meaningfully damaged.

If you are preparing to buy:
It’s not advisable to put on a full position all at once after a series of strong rallies. A more reasonable plan is to wait for a pullback to around 4,100, 4,050, or even 4,000 and observe in batches. If it instead breaks directly above 4,300, you should still wait for a retest and confirmation after the breakout, to avoid chasing when short-term sentiment is at its peak.

For short-term futures contracts:
Volatility ahead will be high. The most critical variables are U.S. employment data, CPI, the U.S. dollar index, 10-year real yields, and remarks by Federal Reserve officials. It’s currently not suitable to make one-way leveraged bets.

I remain moderately bullish on gold over the next 3 to 6 months, but I’m not blindly expecting gains over the next few days. A more likely path is that prices will first swing violently at high levels, digesting the recent rally, and then decide whether to enter the next round of upward movement based on the direction of U.S. inflation and interest rates.

$XAU