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🚨 BTC WARNING — THE 4-YEAR CYCLE IS BACK 🚨
Bitcoin’s monthly chart is doing the same thing it has every single cycle.
No exceptions. No misses.
Since 2013, BTC always follows this pattern:
• 2 years of steady growth
• 1 year of explosive bull run
• 1 year of brutal bear market
The bull run peaked in October 2025.
That phase is over.
📉 We are now in the bear market, likely lasting until October 2026.
If history repeats:
BTC may chop around $80k first
Then slide toward ~$50k by October 2026
This is the only indicator that has never failed me.
Save this. I’ll revisit it in October 2026.
No exceptions. No misses.
Since 2013, BTC always follows this pattern:
• 2 years of steady growth
• 1 year of explosive bull run
• 1 year of brutal bear market
The bull run peaked in October 2025.
That phase is over.
📉 We are now in the bear market, likely lasting until October 2026.
If history repeats:
BTC may chop around $80k first
Then slide toward ~$50k by October 2026
This is the only indicator that has never failed me.
Save this. I’ll revisit it in October 2026.
$BTC CRASH — CALLED IT.
I warned you weeks ago when the structure started breaking.
I warned you again when 84.5k was the last line of defense.
It broke.
We crashed.
This morning, I shared the short.
Hope this saved your portfolio from real damage.
Recap -
The bounce to 87k never came.
That was your warning. No FOMO for a reason.
Bitcoin just broke another major level, and this is very bad for longs.
I’m more bearish than ever. The next 3-hour candles will decide everything.
Stay below 84.5k for the next 12 hours: Breakdown confirmed. I’m shorting. December lows are gone.
Surprise move above 85k: Fakeout. Momentum flips bullish.
I’m waiting — but if BTC can’t reclaim 85k, expect a hard drop toward 75k.
This next move won’t be subtle.
I warned you again when 84.5k was the last line of defense.
It broke.
We crashed.
This morning, I shared the short.
Hope this saved your portfolio from real damage.
Recap -
The bounce to 87k never came.
That was your warning. No FOMO for a reason.
Bitcoin just broke another major level, and this is very bad for longs.
I’m more bearish than ever. The next 3-hour candles will decide everything.
Stay below 84.5k for the next 12 hours: Breakdown confirmed. I’m shorting. December lows are gone.
Surprise move above 85k: Fakeout. Momentum flips bullish.
I’m waiting — but if BTC can’t reclaim 85k, expect a hard drop toward 75k.
This next move won’t be subtle.
$XAU — vertical pump, instant rejection. That’s usually not strength.
Short $XAU
Entry: 4,880 – 4,950
SL: 5,050
TP1: 4,720
TP2: 4,550
TP3: 4,300
The push higher stalled quickly and heavy sell pressure showed up right after the high, suggesting exhaustion rather than continuation. Momentum flipped fast, volume spiked on the rejection, and price failed to hold above the breakout zone. That keeps downside continuation as the higher-probability path.
Trade $XAU here 👇
Short $XAU
Entry: 4,880 – 4,950
SL: 5,050
TP1: 4,720
TP2: 4,550
TP3: 4,300
The push higher stalled quickly and heavy sell pressure showed up right after the high, suggesting exhaustion rather than continuation. Momentum flipped fast, volume spiked on the rejection, and price failed to hold above the breakout zone. That keeps downside continuation as the higher-probability path.
Trade $XAU here 👇
$SOMI — dead cat bounce into supply
Short $SOMI
Entry: 0.235 – 0.245
SL: 0.268
TP1: 0.215
TP2: 0.195
TP3: 0.180
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $SOMI here 👇
Short $SOMI
Entry: 0.235 – 0.245
SL: 0.268
TP1: 0.215
TP2: 0.195
TP3: 0.180
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $SOMI here 👇
$PUMP — Dead bounce into resistance after a macro downtrend.
Short $PUMP
Entry: 0.00245–0.00255
SL: 0.00275
TP1: 0.00220
TP2: 0.00195
TP3: 0.00168
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $PUMP here 👇
Short $PUMP
Entry: 0.00245–0.00255
SL: 0.00275
TP1: 0.00220
TP2: 0.00195
TP3: 0.00168
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $PUMP here 👇
$HYPE – relief bounce into resistance, likely lower high
Short $HYPE
Entry: 28.0 – 29.2
SL: 32.90
TP1: 26.20
TP2: 24.00
TP3: 20.50
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $HYPE here 👇
Short $HYPE
Entry: 28.0 – 29.2
SL: 32.90
TP1: 26.20
TP2: 24.00
TP3: 20.50
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $HYPE here 👇
$0G — bounce into supply, nothing more
Short $0G
Entry: 0.705 – 0.730
SL: 0.760
TP1: 0.680
TP2: 0.640
TP3: 0.600
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $0G here 👇
Short $0G
Entry: 0.705 – 0.730
SL: 0.760
TP1: 0.680
TP2: 0.640
TP3: 0.600
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $0G here 👇
$USELESS — Everyone hates it, which is usually when it moves
Long $USELESS
Entry: 0.048–0.051
SL: 0.045
TP1: 0.058
TP2: 0.064
TP3: 0.072
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $USELESS here 👇
Long $USELESS
Entry: 0.048–0.051
SL: 0.045
TP1: 0.058
TP2: 0.064
TP3: 0.072
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $USELESS here 👇
$RIVER — Blow-off top, now bleeding back into reality
Short $RIVER
Entry: 30.0 – 32.0
SL: 36.0
TP1: 26.0
TP2: 22.0
TP3: 18.0
The push higher stalled fast after a parabolic move and heavy sell pressure showed up immediately near the highs. Momentum flipped hard, volume is fading on bounces, and price isn’t getting acceptance back above the breakdown zone. This looks like distribution after a blow-off, not a healthy pullback, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $RIVER here 👇
Short $RIVER
Entry: 30.0 – 32.0
SL: 36.0
TP1: 26.0
TP2: 22.0
TP3: 18.0
The push higher stalled fast after a parabolic move and heavy sell pressure showed up immediately near the highs. Momentum flipped hard, volume is fading on bounces, and price isn’t getting acceptance back above the breakdown zone. This looks like distribution after a blow-off, not a healthy pullback, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $RIVER here 👇
$VVV – Blow-off top into heavy rejection. Easy fade.
Short $VVV
Entry: 2.15–2.25
SL: 2.45
TP1: 1.95
TP2: 1.70
TP3: 1.40
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $VVV here 👇
Short $VVV
Entry: 2.15–2.25
SL: 2.45
TP1: 1.95
TP2: 1.70
TP3: 1.40
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $VVV here 👇
$INX – vertical dump, panic candle, now sitting on the floor.
Long $INX
Entry: 0.0162 – 0.0169
SL: 0.0154
TP1: 0.0185
TP2: 0.0205
TP3: 0.0230
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are defending the lows and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this base holds, a relief bounce higher is the cleaner path.
Trade $INX here 👇
Long $INX
Entry: 0.0162 – 0.0169
SL: 0.0154
TP1: 0.0185
TP2: 0.0205
TP3: 0.0230
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are defending the lows and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this base holds, a relief bounce higher is the cleaner path.
Trade $INX here 👇
$FIGHT – Dead cat bounce into resistance
Short $FIGHT
Entry: 0.0086 – 0.0090
SL: 0.0098
TP1: 0.0079
TP2: 0.0072
TP3: 0.0064
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $FIGHT here 👇
Short $FIGHT
Entry: 0.0086 – 0.0090
SL: 0.0098
TP1: 0.0079
TP2: 0.0072
TP3: 0.0064
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $FIGHT here 👇
$DOGE — dead-cat bounce into resistance
Short $DOGE
Entry: 0.112–0.115
SL: 0.118
TP1: 0.105
TP2: 0.098
TP3: 0.090
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $DOGE here 👇
Short $DOGE
Entry: 0.112–0.115
SL: 0.118
TP1: 0.105
TP2: 0.098
TP3: 0.090
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $DOGE here 👇
$BNB – Sellers couldn’t press it lower and price is holding the base.
Long $BNB
Entry: 830–840
SL: 790
TP1: 865
TP2: 890
TP3: 920
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $BNB here 👇
Long $BNB
Entry: 830–840
SL: 790
TP1: 865
TP2: 890
TP3: 920
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $BNB here 👇
$SOL – range low support holding after sell-off
Long $SOL
Entry: 114–116
SL: 111
TP1: 120
TP2: 126
TP3: 132
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $SOL here 👇
Long $SOL
Entry: 114–116
SL: 111
TP1: 120
TP2: 126
TP3: 132
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $SOL here 👇
$ETH – Sell-off stalled, downside momentum fading.
Long $ETH
Entry: 2600–2650
SL: 2485
TP1: 2750
TP2: 2885
TP3: 3050
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $ETH here 👇
Long $ETH
Entry: 2600–2650
SL: 2485
TP1: 2750
TP2: 2885
TP3: 3050
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $ETH here 👇
$BTC – Sell-side got swept, but price isn’t breaking down. That’s the tell.
Long $BTC
Entry: 82,500 – 83,200
SL: 80,600
TP1: 84,600
TP2: 86,800
TP3: 89,500
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $BTC here 👇
Long $BTC
Entry: 82,500 – 83,200
SL: 80,600
TP1: 84,600
TP2: 86,800
TP3: 89,500
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $BTC here 👇
$XRP – Late sellers getting trapped at daily support
Long $XRP
Entry: 1.67 – 1.70
SL: 1.60
TP1: 1.78
TP2: 1.88
TP3: 2.00
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $XRP here 👇
Long $XRP
Entry: 1.67 – 1.70
SL: 1.60
TP1: 1.78
TP2: 1.88
TP3: 2.00
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $XRP here 👇
$SENT — bounce into resistance after a full trend breakdown.
Short $SENT
Entry: 0.0400–0.0415
SL: 0.0455
TP1: 0.0350
TP2: 0.0280
TP3: 0.0200
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $SENT here 👇
Short $SENT
Entry: 0.0400–0.0415
SL: 0.0455
TP1: 0.0350
TP2: 0.0280
TP3: 0.0200
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $SENT here 👇
$HYPE – Mean reversion after capitulation
Long $HYPE
Entry: 29.5 – 30.3
SL: 27.9
TP1: 32.1
TP2: 35.0
TP3: 38.5
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $HYPE here 👇
Long $HYPE
Entry: 29.5 – 30.3
SL: 27.9
TP1: 32.1
TP2: 35.0
TP3: 38.5
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Buyers are still defending structure well and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this area holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $HYPE here 👇
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