The Breakout Trading Strategy I Use to Catch Big Moves
I’ve longed resistance and shorted support for 9 years… This is the exact opposite of what every trader tries to do. In this article, I will share my entire strategy so you can skip years of testing and losses. This is something you will want to bookmark, take notes on, and set time aside to think about. Lesson 1: The Only 2 Trading Strategies Before you can identify good momentum setups, you need to understand what momentum trading actually is. Momentum and mean reversion are opposite strategies based on opposite assumptions. The Two Trading Styles Momentum (where you take a trade betting on a continuation of the current trend)Mean Reversion (where you take a trade betting on a reversal of the current trend) One assumes strength continues; the other assumes strength exhausts. Let’s consider this through a visual example. Suppose price is approaching a resistance level (in other words, a level where there was previously selling pressure, preventing the price from moving higher). Momentum assumes the level will break. You’re betting on continuation.Price approaches resistance, you buy, expecting it to push through and keep running.The level becomes support once broken. Mean reversion assumes the level will hold. You’re betting on rejection.Price approaches resistance, you short, expecting it to bounce back down.The level acts as a ceiling. Same chart. Same resistance level. Opposite strategies. There is no right or wrong. The key is to understand when you are in a momentum trade environment, such that momentum strategies are highly aligned. The next section shows you exactly how to identify when the environment favours momentum (my best strategy). Lesson 1 Summary There are 2 trading styles: momentum and mean reversionMean reversion bets levels will hold; momentum bets levels will breakOne is not better than the other; it depends entirely on the trade environment Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment Just opening a long every time price hits resistance won't make us any money. Without the right conditions, momentum dies immediately after the breakout. You enter. It reverses. You're stopped out. That's not bad luck, that's a bad trading environment. The Rowing Analogy Imagine you’re rowing a boat. You either row against or with the current. One makes it easier to row while the other takes a lot more effort. Your boat, or rowing technique, didn’t change… Only your environment did. Trading is the same. Your strategy is your boat. Your optimal trade environment is the current. Now use this 3-filter checklist to ensure you only take trades where a breakout is likely (with the current). Filter 1: How Did Price Approach the Level? What you WANT: A slow, grinding staircase pattern approaching resistance.Each candle makes incremental progress.Higher lows are stacking up.Controlled, deliberate movement. What you DON’T want: A fast vertical spike into resistance.Price shoots up in one or two large candles.After a spike, buyers' strength is depleted and price typically consolidates or reverses.This is exhaustion, not momentum. The staircase pattern shows sustained buying pressure building gradually. When this breaks through resistance, buyers are still engaged and ready to push further. Common mistake: Traders see a strong candle break resistance and assume momentum is strong. But these fast moves often reverse quickly. → Do this instead: Take momentum trades when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase over multiple candles. Real Trade Example: Slow clear grind into resistance showing an optimal ‘price approach to level’ for momentum. Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅ Filter 2: What Did Volume Look Like? Volume confirms whether the price movement has conviction behind it. What you WANT: Gradual increase in volume as price approaches resistanceThis pattern shows controlled, sustainable momentum. What you DON’T want: Flat volume (no conviction) or sudden volume spikes (exhaustion).Flat volume means the move lacks participation.Volume spikes often mark climax points where momentum exhausts.Decreasing volume (why would price break out of resistance now, if volume was lower than before?) Volume should mirror the price pattern, steady and building, not erratic. This strategy works because momentum continuation is most likely when participation is sustained, supply is absorbed gradually, and structure remains intact. Real Trade Example: Around the time the grindy staircase begins to emerge, we see a slow, consistent increase in volume. Filter 1: slow grindy staircase ✅Filter 2: clearly increasing volume ✅ Lastly, Filter 3: Moving Average Crossovers This filter distinguishes trending markets (good for momentum) from choppy, indecisive markets (bad for momentum). What you WANT to see: Moving averages with minimal crossovers. This indicates a directional trend. What you DON’T want to see: Frequent crossovers. This signals chop and indecision. Fewer crossovers = cleaner trend or range = better momentum continuation. Use the 30SMMA (Smoothed Moving Average). ✍️Quick Actionable Step: To add the 30SMMA on your charts: Search for the Smoothed Moving Average Indicator in TradingViewAdd it to your chartGo into settings and change the "Length" to "30" Real Trade Example: Filter 1 (Price Action): slow grindy staircase ✅ Filter 2 (Volume): clearly increasing volume ✅ Filter 3 (Crossovers): minimal MA crossovers ✅ 🎓Lesson 2 Summary Slow grinding staircase approaches have better follow-through than fast spikesVolume should be gradual (increasing or decreasing), not flat or spikingFewer MA crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions for momentum Lesson 3: Identifying Setups Now you know what momentum is. You also know the optimal conditions for it. Next, you need to know where to execute these trades. Step 1: Draw Support and Resistance Levels Momentum trades happen at these key levels. You need to identify them consistently. I've already written an in-depth masterclass on how to set these levels. I'll link it at the end of this article. Common mistake: Traders draw levels randomly or inconsistently, leading to missed setups or false signals. Do this instead: Use my step-by-step approach at the end of this article. Step 2: Await Your Entry Trigger on the 1-Minute Chart Once you’ve identified a resistance level on your primary timeframe, switch to the 1-minute chart for precise entry timing. Why 1-minute chart? You learn faster. More trades, more chart exposure and more oppurtunities to practice psychology. I’ve added a bonus guide on why you should be trading the 1-minute chart at the end of this article. Real Trade Example: Step 3: Three Filters Before entering, check the three filters from Section 2: Is price approaching resistance in a slow staircase pattern?Is volume gradually increasing or decreasing (not flat or spiking)?Are there minimal MA crossovers (not choppy)? If any filter fails, reduce your risk on the trade. Only take full risk on A-grade setups, not forcing trades in poor conditions. 🎓Lesson 3 Summary Draw levels using the ZCT masterclass approach at the end of this articleUse your entry trigger on the 1-minute timeframe: 2 candle closes above for confirmationCheck all three filters before entering, allocate risk and size accordingly Lesson 4: Strategy Logic: Stop Loss, and Take Profit You've drawn your levels. You've confirmed the setup aligns with optimal momentum conditions. Now you need precise execution. Entry timing, stop placement, and profit targets determine whether you capture the momentum move or get stopped out on a good setup. This is where most traders lose, not in analysis, but in execution. Step 4: Entry Trigger We have established to wait for two consecutive 1-minute candles to close fully above the resistance level. This confirms the level broke and momentum is continuing. Critical execution detail: After the second candle closes above resistance, place a limit order AT the resistance level (now acting as support), not above it. Price often pulls back slightly after breaking out. Your limit order gets filled on the pullback without chasing. Common mistake: Traders wait for confirmation, then market-buy above resistance as price runs away. They enter late with a wider stop and worse risk/reward. → Do this instead: Preset your limit order AT resistance after the second candle closes. Let price come back to you. Real Trade Example: Step 5: Stop Loss A swing low is: the lowest wick in a pullback. Your stop loss goes at the most recent swing low before the breakout. Common mistake: Traders place stops at the nearest swing low, even if it’s only 0.3% away, leading to frequent stop-outs from normal volatility Do this instead: Always measure the distance of your stop loss using the ruler tool on TradingView. If it’s less than 1%, use the next swing low down. Step 6: Take Profit 1R (Equal Distance to Stop) Your take profit target is 1R, the same distance as your stop loss, but in the profit direction If your stop loss is 1.982% away from entry, your target is also 1.982% away, but on the upside. This gives you a 1:1 risk/reward ratio. Why 1R? It’s conservative and achievable. Momentum trades often hit 1R quickly because the breakout has follow-through. You’re not trying to catch the entire move, you’re taking a high-probability piece of it. Over time, as you get data in your journal, you can start extending your profit targets when you see how far your average winning trades go beyond 1R. This way, you’re not guessing where to take profits, but following a systematic approach. Real Trade Example: 🎓Lesson 4 summary Enter after two 1-minute candle closes above resistance, using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) to avoid chasing price.Place stop losses at the most recent valid swing low, ensuring enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Set initial profit targets at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable, systematic way. Immediate Next Steps✍️: Read the Support and Resistance Masterclass to learn how to draw levels (shared at end of article)Look at 3 charts using the 3 filter checklist to identify a momentum trade environmentUse the strategy steps to enter your tradeGather 30 trades using this method, journalled and reviewed against the criteria 🎓 Final Summary Lesson 1: Momentum vs Mean Reversion Momentum trades bet that price will continue through a level, while mean reversion trades bet that a level will hold and reject price.Both strategies are valid, but performance depends entirely on matching the strategy to the correct trade environment. Understanding this distinction prevents applying breakout logic in conditions where it has no edge. Lesson 2: Optimal Trade Environment High-quality breakouts form when price approaches resistance in a slow, grinding staircase rather than fast vertical spikes.Volume should build gradually to confirm sustained participation, not remain flat or spike from exhaustion.Minimal moving average crossovers indicate cleaner directional conditions where momentum continuation is more likely. Lesson 3: Identifying Setups Momentum trades should be executed at consistently drawn support and resistance levels.Entries are triggered on the 1-minute chart using two consecutive candle closes above resistance for confirmation.All three environment filters must align before taking full risk; weaker conditions require reduced sizing or passing the trade. Lesson 4: Stop Loss and Take Profit Enter using a limit order at prior resistance (now support) after two confirmed 1-minute candle closes to avoid chasing price.Stop losses should be placed at the most recent valid swing low with enough distance to avoid normal volatility and minor stop hunts.Initial profit targets are set at 1R to capture high-probability momentum continuation in a repeatable way. 🎓What Changes From Here The next time price approaches resistance, you won’t have to guess if it will break out. You’ll know when a breakout has real momentum, when volume confirms it, and when conditions support follow-through. You’ll also execute with defined entries, stops, and targets. #CryptoZeno #tradingStrategy
$H circulating supply gets a 7.92% unlock in 3 days. But something interesting is happening onchain.
266.47M tokens unlock, 7.92% of circulating supply. The largest slice comes from Early Contributors, 79.17M tokens ($5.98M), then Investors at 55.56M ($4.20M). Combined across six allocations, that's roughly $20M in supply.
But there's a counter-move happening in the last few days
Bulk withdrawals from exchanges into fresh wallets. Six major ones, plus smaller amounts:
$5.62M, $4.28M, $4.11M, $2.34M, $1.97M, $1.31M
Roughly $20M total, and these wallets are holding. Not sending back to exchanges, not selling.
That's the opposite of what you'd expect heading into an unlock. In a window where selling pressure is usually the concern, someone's pulling supply off exchanges and sitting on it instead. That points to accumulation, or at least an intent to hold rather than sell.
Structure backs it up
OI at 12% of mcap, futures at 8.0x spot, both in the healthy range. L/S at 1.11, close to balanced. Top trader positions at 2.48, far more weighted long than the crowd. The split is real and leans up.
Taker at 0.93, slightly seller-heavy, but price is only down 2.85% in 24h, a modest pullback so far.
A weekly close above the daily 200 MAs and the 75.6k key level would be very bullish for the next weeks.
BTC will def retest at least one of the lower supports in a quick wick. But seeing this continued strength, it's hard to imagine that we won't see an attempt to break 82.5k in the next days.
High timeframe closes are super important from here cause they often tell the difference: is it just a liquidity grab (usually quick wick to hit the orders) or is it a new trend in the beginning.
$BEAT from 11 to 0.1649, and today's 36% jump needs to be read in that context.
Structure here is contradictory, worth going through each piece.
Futures/spot at 31.5x, one of the most extreme ratios we've seen. Spot volume is $26.08M, futures is $821.39M. Price here is almost entirely a leverage story, spot barely participates.
The crowd is heavily long, but takers are selling. L/S at 2.61, top trader account ratio at 2.82, both the crowd and big accounts lean long by headcount. But top trader position ratio is only 1.35, meaning the size they're carrying is far more conservative. Taker buy/sell is 0.79, the aggressive side is net selling. So while price climbs 36%, whoever is hitting the market is actually selling into it. Buyers are sitting passively, sellers are the ones pulling the trigger.
$2.81M liquidated in 24h, a large number relative to market cap, this move hasn't been painless.
The bigger picture
BEAT peaked around 11 in mid-June, then every bounce since has made a lower high. A move to roughly 6 in late July, then more erosion. Price now sits at the bottom of that entire decline, down over 98% from the peak.
That reframes today's move. This isn't a fresh uptrend starting, it's a bounce after a long grind down.
Levels on the liquidation map
Two distinct clusters: $1.76M sitting at 0.29, and $1.73M at 0.73. Both well above current price.
That points to two layered fuel zones above. If price starts moving toward 0.29, those stacked positions get triggered and the move can feed on itself. 0.73 is a much bigger step further out.
Whether taker flow flips back to buyers, if it stays seller-heavy, this bounce stays weak.
Whether futures/spot comes down, real participation would mean spot catching up.
How the first approach to 0.29 gets received.
You can follow this data in real time in the private group. Pinned post for details.
The Dusk wallet update is actually more interesting than it first looks. Dusk Connect gives dApps a standard way to discover wallets, request accounts, sign transactions and interact with different wallet implementations, while the new Dusk Wallet is being built for browser, desktop and mobile. The SDK also uses the EIP-6963 wallet discovery pattern, which is a small but important detail for interoperability. What caught my attention is that the wallet is not being treated as just a place to hold $DUSK It already supports public and private transfers, shield/unshield, staking, reward claiming, DRC-20 and DRC-721 assets, plus dApp permissions. That makes the wallet part of the application layer rather than a separate product sitting beside the network. There is still a lot I would like to see the @Dusk team add here, especially as more financial applications start appearing. A smoother way to move between different regulated assets, manage permissions and understand exactly what information a dApp is requesting would make this much more useful in practice. That is the kind of infrastructure detail I tend to notice more than another partnership announcement. If Dusk wants financial dApps to feel normal for users, could the wallet experience become just as important as the blockchain underneath it? #dusk @Dusk
$BTC Searching for something like this going into the monthly close / new month.
Today’s candle is most likely the exhaustion candle we usually see at the end of trends. It’s only a matter of how high it extends before the close.
I think Wave 3 will be marked below the 82.8k high. Front-running it on the first pump would make a lot of sense because that would bait a lot of people who will be longing towards that high thinking it will likely be taken out now because "we came too close to it" while also front-running the obvious sweep of the high short setups.
That’s why I think we’ll move into Wave 4 from here. Another confluence making this more likely is USDT.D also bouncing from the Monthly FVG, so a pullback into Wave 4 is looking very likely.
Personally, I am expecting that we'll complete Wave 4 at the 0.382 Fib around 72.9k, where we also have the current Daily Open with the shaved bottom. In impulsive markets we usually see flat pullbacks so a move into 0.382-0.5 fib region is probably going to be the max downside we'll see.
For now, I expect us to range within this upper 75k–79k region for a while before eventually retracing into that 72.9k level to mark Wave 4.
I’ll make a full update on this soon, but that’s the idea I’m working with right now.
$ONG Up 82% in 24h, 214% over 7 days. There are two things driving this, one technical, one fundamental.
Technical side: a classic squeeze
Funding at -2.00%, one of the deepest negative readings we've seen. L/S at 0.70, the crowd is short and paying heavily for it right now. OI is up 155% at the same time, so shorts aren't closing, they're piling on. Taker at 1.21, buyers are the aggressive side.
Fundamental side: supply is shrinking
On August 22, three days from now, Ontology has a network upgrade and hard fork scheduled. Binance and Bithumb are already preparing to suspend ONT/ONG deposits and withdrawals for it.
This isn't a routine technical update. Back in November 2025, the community approved cutting ONG's max supply from 1 billion to 800 million, permanently burning 20% of supply. This hard fork is what puts that decision into effect at the protocol level.
Big accounts (top trader at 0.68) are short too, even more than the crowd. That's not a "big money on the other side" split, it's everyone crowded on the same side. Trading halts around August 22 could thin out liquidity, and that raises the risk of much sharper liquidations in either direction.
Bitcoin doing Bitcoin things and pumping through all key levels on a real breakout backed by volume.
The correction will come 100%, but if BTC could hold the daily 200 moving averages on htf closes, that would be another sign of real strength and a base to attack the low 80s region to set in a higher high.
Expecting a correction before low 80s. That will tell us more about the meaning of the current move.
I’ve been at TermMax’s leverage side more closely, and this is where the design starts to feel quite different from the usual DeFi loop. Instead of manually depositing collateral, borrowing, swapping and repeating the process, TermMax has Gearing Tokens (GT) designed to package a leveraged position into a single token. The position can then be managed through TermMax rather than rebuilding the whole leverage loop every time. What I find interesting is the risk structure. TermMax describes GT as using a fixed-rate borrowing cost, so the leverage position is not exposed to the same floating borrowing-rate changes you normally have to monitor in lending protocols. The protocol also supports partial or full repayment and collateral adjustments before maturity. I actually prefer this kind of design when the goal is to make leverage easier to manage, because the operational side can become just as annoying as the leverage itself. One less sequence of manual transactions is meaningful if the position needs to be adjusted quickly. I’d still like to see TermMax expose more detailed historical data for GT positions, especially average leverage, duration and liquidation-free position performance. That would make it much easier to judge how these products behave beyond the initial interface. Would you rather manage leverage through something like a GT, or keep doing the traditional deposit → borrow → loop process yourself? @TermMax $TMX #TermMax
At first, the SME angle on Dusk less interesting than the usual institutional RWA story. Then I thought about the actual problem: a smaller private company can have a solid business but still struggle to access capital markets because the infrastructure around issuance, investor access and compliance is expensive and fragmented. That is where tokenization starts to make more sense to me. The useful part is not simply turning a private-market asset into a token. It is making smaller offerings easier to structure, distribute and manage while keeping the regulatory requirements intact. Dusk is specifically exploring this direction with tokenized private markets for SMEs, which like a much more practical use case than putting another large asset onchain. There is also an interesting limitation here. Better blockchain infrastructure does not automatically create buyers for smaller securities. Liquidity, investor eligibility and market access still have to be solved. So I actually hope the Dusk team keeps developing the market-access side of this idea instead of focusing only on the blockchain layer. Making private-market financing more accessible to smaller companies become one of the strongest real-world tests for $DUSK ? #dusk @Dusk
$BTC The HTF POC has been flipped. It was a sign of accumulation as mentioned, but now that we’ve seen a shift in market structure despite seasonality. Ideally, bulls want to maintain above it.
If we hold above the POC (with some slight deviation being expected), you’d expect a higher low to form into the next leg. So watch for stalling, then observe the 65–68K region, as that’s around where the increased volume sits & where big buyers are likely to step in.