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Bitcoin halving: understanding the event that changes the cycles The halving is one of the most anticipatedโand least well understoodโevents in the crypto ecosystem. Hereโs what you need to know.
๐ THE MECHANISM: โ Bitcoin has a maximum supply fixed at 21 million BTCโnever more โ These BTC are created gradually by miners who secure the network โ Every 210,000 blocks (~4 years), the minersโ reward is cut in half โ In 2009: 50 BTC per block / 2012: 25 BTC / 2016: 12.5 BTC / 2020: 6.25 BTC / 2024: 3.125 BTC
๐ WHY IT IMPACTS THE PRICE? โ After each halving, the amount of new BTC available each day is reduced by half โ If demand stays the same or increases, upward pressure on the price grows โ Historically, the biggest bull markets occurred 6 to 18 months after each halving
๐ WHAT THE HALVING IS NOT: โ A guaranteed price increaseโother factors (regulation, macro, sentiment) also play a role โ A signal to invest heavily right beforeโmarkets often price it in โ A certainty: the past doesnโt guarantee the future
๐ก The halving is a programmed scarcity mechanism in Bitcoinโs code. Thatโs what sets it apart from all traditional currenciesโwhose supply can be increased at will by central banks.
Tomorrow: how to position your investments according to the cycle phaseโwithout pretending you can predict everything.
What I learned by going through my first bear market Two years ago, I watched my portfolio lose 60% of its value in just a few weeks.
I didnโt sell. Not because I was braveโbecause I panicked too late, and selling at that moment would have meant admitting the loss.
Every morning, I opened the app. Every morning, the screen stayed red.
What saved me was rereading the previous cycles. The 2018 bear market after the 2017 peak. The drop in 2020 at the start of Covid. Each time, Bitcoin came back. Each time, those who sold in panic missed the rebound.
I decided to stop checking my portfolio every day. I set a simple rule: I look once a week, and I donโt make any decisions based on the emotion of the moment.
What this bear market taught me: โ A portfolio you canโt hold through a bear market is too risky โ Time in the market beats market timingโalmost always โ Panic is contagious. Discipline, on the other hand, must be solitary
Today, when I see the market in the red, I ask myself just one question: have the fundamentals changed? If not, I donโt change anything.
Have you ever gone through a period of steep decline? What helped you stay the courseโor convinced you to sell?
The 4-year cycle: why the crypto market repeats The crypto market doesnโt evolve at random. It follows a rhythmโimperfect, but observable since Bitcoinโs origins. This rhythm is linked to the halving.
๐ WHAT IS THE HALVING? โ Every ~4 years, the Bitcoin minersโ reward is cut in half โ This reduces the amount of new BTC created each day โ Less supply + stable (or increasing) demand = bullish pressure on the price โ Halvings have occurred in 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024
๐ THE 4-PHASE CYCLE: โ 1๏ธโฃ Accumulation: low prices, little interest, patient investors buy โ 2๏ธโฃ Bull market: gradual then explosive rise, euphoria, media hype, FOMO โ 3๏ธโฃ Distribution: big investors sell quietly, the price stagnates โ 4๏ธโฃ Bear market: sharp drop, fear, capitulation, back to accumulation
๐ WHY IS IT USEFUL? โ Not to predict the futureโno one can do that with certainty โ But to avoid panicking in a bear market, or getting euphoric in a bull market โ Understanding the cycle means investing with a mindsetโnot with emotions
๐ก The cycle never repeats exactly the same way. But human behaviorsโfear and greedโremain constant. Thatโs the real engine of the cycle.
Tomorrow: how to tell a bull market from a simple reboundโand the indicators that help you read the cycle. ๐
What we learned this week โ and whatโs coming next
Week 9 is over. We learned how to evaluate a crypto project on our own โ without relying on outside opinions.
What we covered together:
๐ Monday: the whitepaper โ the first document to read before investing ๐ Tuesday: how to read a whitepaper in 20 minutes without being a developer ๐ Wednesday: the day I almost invested in a project without a whitepaper ๐ Thursday: tokenomics โ total supply, distribution, vesting ๐ Friday: the 6 red flags to recognize before investing ๐ฌ Saturday: your selection methods โ thanks for your answers!
Next week, weโll move on to a question everyone asks but few truly dare to analyze:
Weโll look at: the 4-year cycle tied to the Bitcoin halving, the bull/bear phases, and how to position your investments depending on where you are in the cycle โ without pretending to predict the future.
9 weeks. More than half the way to 100 posts.
If youโve been following since the beginning, or if you just arrived โ all the content is on my profile.
In a market where scams sit alongside real projects, knowing how to read warning signs is a skill that protects your capital.
๐ฉ THE 6 MOST COMMON RED FLAGS:
1๏ธโฃ No whitepaper or vague, undated document โ A serious project always documents its technology and vision
2๏ธโฃ Anonymous team with no verifiable track record โ Total anonymity without an established reputation is a risk factor
3๏ธโฃ Guaranteed returns promises โ "100x guaranteed", "20% return per month" โ no legitimate investment promises that
4๏ธโฃ Concentration of tokens in a few wallets โ Check via explorers: if 3 wallets control 80% of the supply, manipulation is easy
5๏ธโฃ Pressure to invest quickly โ "Limited offer", "48-hour window" โ rushing is the enemy of reason
6๏ธโฃ Website and social media created very recently โ A domain registered 3 weeks ago with 50,000 followers bought: be wary
๐ก Reminder: a project can match none of these red flags and still fail. And a solid project can disappoint in the short term. Analysis reduces risk โ it doesnโt eliminate it.
๐ Exercise: take the most recent token you heard about on social media. Check it against these 6 points. Share your analysis in the comments. #cryptouniverseofficial #EducationalContent
Tokenomics: understanding how a token is distributed
Tokenomics (a contraction of โtokenโ + โeconomicsโ) describes how a token is created, distributed, and used. Itโs one of the most revealing elements of a project.
๐ KEY ELEMENTS TO ANALYZE:
๐ข The total supply (Total Supply) โ How many tokens will exist at most? โ An unlimited supply can create inflation and dilute value โ A limited supply (like Bitcoin at 21 million) creates scarcity
๐ The initial allocation โ Who receives tokens at creation: the team, private investors, the public? โ โ ๏ธ Warning sign: if the team or founders keep more than 30โ40% at launch โ โ Positive sign: a large portion allocated to the community and the protocolโs development
๐ Vesting (unlock schedule) โ Are the foundersโ tokens locked for a certain period before they can be sold? โ A long vesting period (2โ4 years) signals that the team believes in the project long-term โ No vesting = the team can sell immediately after launch: high risk
๐ก Where to find this information: in the whitepaper, on CoinGecko (the โTokenomicsโ section), and on blockchain explorers to verify the foundersโ wallets.
Tomorrow: the red flags to recognize to avoid the most common scams in 2024.
The day I almost invested in a project without a whitepaper
A few months ago, a token was recommended to me in a crypto group.
The message was enthusiastic. The numbers looked good. The website was polished. The logo was professional.
I almost bought without thinking โ out of fear of missing out.
Then I looked for the whitepaper.
There wasnโt one. Just a โcoming soonโ page in the Docs section.
I searched for the team. Anonymous. No LinkedIn. No verifiable profile.
I checked the contract on a blockchain explorer. The team held more than 60% of the total supply.
I decided not to invest.
Two weeks later, the token had lost 90% of its value. It was a classic rug pull โ the team had sold heavily after drawing in buyers.
What I learned: a clean website proves nothing. A token that climbs quickly proves nothing. The real question is: does this project actually exist, with a real team, a documented plan, and transparent tokenomics?
Have you ever had an intuition that saved you โ or a time when you didnโt listen to your doubts?
The day I almost invested in a project without a whitepaper
A few months back, a token was recommended to me in a crypto group.
The message was hype. The numbers looked solid. The site was slick. The logo was professional.
I almost FOMO'd in without a second thought โ scared to miss the pump.
Then I looked for the whitepaper.
There was none. Just a "coming soon" page in the Docs section.
I searched for the team. Anonymous. No LinkedIn. No verifiable profiles.
I checked the contract on a blockchain explorer. The team held over 60% of the total supply.
I decided to pass on investing.
Two weeks later, the token had tanked 90% of its value. It was a classic rug pull โ the team had dumped their bags after luring in buyers.
What I learned: a clean site proves nothing. A token that moons fast proves nothing. The real question is: does this project actually exist, with a real team, a documented plan, and transparent tokenomics?
Have you ever had a gut feeling that saved you โ or a time you didnโt heed your doubts?
How to read a whitepaper without being a developer
A whitepaper can be 30 pages long. Hereโs how to analyze it effectively in under 20 minutes.
๐ THE 5 SECTIONS TO CHECK PRIORITIZE:
1๏ธโฃ The problem solved โ Does the project address a real issue, or is it creating an artificial need? โ Key question: Did this problem exist before this token? Could it be solved without blockchain?
2๏ธโฃ The proposed solution โ Is it clearly explained, or buried in incomprehensible jargon? โ A good team knows how to simplify. An opaque project is suspicious.
3๏ธโฃ Tokenomics โ How many tokens are there in total? Who holds them at launch? โ If the team retains 50% of the tokens at launch: be cautious
4๏ธโฃ The roadmap โ Is there a precise development timeline? โ Have past milestones been respected? Check with previous announcements on social media
5๏ธโฃ The team โ Are the names public and verifiable on LinkedIn? โ An anonymous team isnโt necessarily fraudulent, but requires more vigilance
๐ก Tip: use ChatGPT or an AI assistant to summarize a whitepaper in 5 points. But always read at least the introduction and the tokenomics section yourself.
๐ Exercise: choose a project youโre following and find its whitepaper. Check these 5 points. Youโll see if your intuition is confirmed or challenged. ๐
The whitepaper: the first document to read before investing
Before diving into a crypto project, thereโs a fundamental document that many overlook โ and that serious investors always check out: the whitepaper.
๐ WHAT IS A WHITEPAPER? โ A technical document published by the founding team of the project โ It explains: the problem the project aims to tackle, the proposed solution, the technology used, and how the token operates โ Itโs like the business plan of a startup โ but accessible to everyone
๐ WHY IS IT IMPORTANT? โ A serious project always has a clear, dated, and signed whitepaper โ A project without a whitepaper (or with a vague and copied document) is an immediate red flag โ Even if you donโt understand everything, you can still observe: does the team know how to explain what theyโre doing?
๐ WHERE TO FIND IT? โ On the projectโs official website (usually in the "Docs" or "About" section) โ On CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko, in the token's profile โ Beware of unofficial copies โ always verify the source
๐ก A whitepaper isnโt a guarantee of success. But its absence, mediocrity, or inconsistencies can save you from losing money.
Tomorrow: how to read a whitepaper when youโre not a developer โ the 5 sections to check first. ๐
What we learned this week โ and what's coming up Week 8 is in the books. We talked about tools that turn a passive newbie into a self-sufficient investor. Here's what we covered together:
๐ Monday: wallets โ custodial vs non-custodial, hot vs cold ๐ Tuesday: blockchain explorers โ check a transaction without trusting anyone ๐ Wednesday: my experience โ the night I checked a transaction every 5 minutes ๐ Thursday: data aggregators โ CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, and Bitcoin dominance ๐ Friday: building your monitoring routine in 10 minutes a day ๐ฌ Saturday: your favorite tools โ thanks for your responses!
Next week, we move on to a key phase:
๐ Week 9 โ Evaluating a crypto project before investing We'll learn how to read a whitepaper, spot red flags, and analyze a team and tokenomics โ so you can decide for yourself, without following the crowd's opinion.
If you've been following this series from the start โ 8 weeks is serious business. If you're just joining us โ all the content from previous weeks is on my profile. See you soon
Which tool do you use the most to follow the market?
We've got
I've seen several essential tools this week: wallets, blockchain explorers, data aggregators. ๐ And you, which one do you use the most on a daily basis? ๐ฑ A) The app for my wallet or exchange โ Simple, everything I need to manage my cryptos is already in one place ๐ B) An aggregator (CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko) โ To track prices and compare projects ๐ C) A blockchain explorer โ To check my transactions and those of others ๐ D) None of these tools โ I mainly rely on social media and groups
Data Aggregators: Your Crypto Market Dashboard After wallets and explorers, here's the third essential tool: the data aggregator.
๐ WHAT IS IT? โ A site that gathers in one place: prices, market cap, volume, and rankings of thousands of cryptos.
๐ง The two references: โ CoinMarketCap (coinmarketcap.com) โ CoinGecko (coingecko.com)
๐ก What you can do with it: โ Check the rankings by market cap โ Compare multiple cryptos on the same candlestick chart โ View price history over several years โ Create a virtual portfolio to track your investments without connecting your wallet โ Check the Fear & Greed Index (seen in week 7), often integrated directly
๐ An indicator to know: "Bitcoin dominance" โ the share of Bitcoin in the total market cap. A declining dominance often signals a resurgence of interest in altcoins.
โ ๏ธ An aggregator displays information โ it does not guarantee the quality of a project. A well-ranked token can still be risky. Tomorrow: how to build a simple routine to track the market without spending your whole day on it.
The night I checked a transaction every 5 minutes The first time I sent a substantial amount in crypto, I couldn't sleep easy. I had clicked "send". The app showed "transaction pending" โ and then nothing. No immediate confirmation. No clear message. Just waiting. My brain started imagining the worst: wrong address, lost funds, my mistake. I opened a blockchain explorer for the first time. I pasted my transaction hash. And I saw something I didnโt know how to read yet: "0 confirmation". I refreshed the page. "1 confirmation". Then "2". Then "3". Twenty minutes later: transaction confirmed, funds arrived at their destination. What I learned from that sleepless night: the blockchain doesnโt lie, but it takes its time โ and without knowing where to check, that waiting period can turn a simple send into several hours of unnecessary anxiety. Today, I check a significant transaction in under a minute, without any stress. Just because I know where to look. Have you ever experienced that moment of doubt after a crypto send? What helped you verify? ๐
The Blockchain Explorer: Your Tool for Verification
A blockchain explorer is a site that allows you to see all transactions on a blockchain in real-time, no questions asked. ๐ WHAT'S IT FOR? 1๏ธโฃ Verify that a send has successfully arrived โ You copy the "hash" (the identifier) of your transaction, given by your wallet โ You paste it on the corresponding explorer โ You can see the live status: pending, confirmed, or failed 2๏ธโฃ Check a project before you invest โ You can see how many holders a token has
crypto wallets: where to securely store your assets
Now that you can read the market, it's time to gear up with the right tools โ starting with the most fundamental: the crypto wallet. ๐ CUSTODIAL WALLET (on an exchange) โ Your cryptos are managed by the platform (Binance, etc.) โ Easy to use, no keys to manage yourself โ But: "not your keys, not your coins" โ you are entirely dependent on the platform ๐ NON-CUSTODIAL WALLET (you hold your keys) โ Only you possess the seed phrase (12 or 24 words)
What we learned this week โ and what's coming up Week 7 wrapped up. We just covered a crucial topic: understanding the market to avoid getting swept away by its movements.
Here's what we went over together:
๐ Monday: bull market and bear market โ their characteristics, their traps, and why both are part of the game ๐ Tuesday: crypto cycles in 4 phases โ accumulation, rally, distribution, decline โ and why they keep repeating ๐ Wednesday: my personal experience facing the collective euphoria โ and what it taught me ๐ Thursday: the Fear & Greed Index โ how to read market sentiment in one number ๐ Friday: 4 classic psychological traps โ FOMO, panic sell, confirmation bias, anchoring to purchase price ๐ฌ Saturday: your preferences between bull and bear markets โ thanks for your responses!
Next week, we're leveling up:
๐ Week 8 โ Tools for the crypto investor We're going to talk about wallets, blockchain explorers, data aggregators, and essential resources for tracking the market smartly.
If you've been following this series from the start โ you're really making progress. 7 weeks is real discipline. If you just joined โ all the content from previous weeks is on my profile.
Bull market or bear market: which one do you prefer to invest in?
This week we've been talking a lot about cycles, market sentiment, and psychology. So I want to ask you a question that doesn't have a right or wrong answer:
๐ If you had the choice, in which context would you prefer to invest?
๐ A) In a bull market โ Prices are up, morale is high, and everyone is feeling positive. โ The risk: buying high. The advantage: the momentum is in your favor.
๐ป B) In a bear market โ Prices are low, sentiment is negative, and few people are interested. โ The risk: prices could drop further. The advantage: you're buying at a discount.
๐ C) Doesn't matter โ you stick to your DCA strategy in both cases.
Respond in the comments. And if you have a story about an investment made in either context, share it โ it's often lived experiences that teach us the most.
4 psychological traps that cost big in crypto Crypto doesnโt just test your knowledge; it tests your mindset. Here are the 4 most common traps โ and how to spot them before they hit your wallet.
โ ๏ธ TRAP 1: FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) โ You see a coin pump 40% in a day. You rush to buy. โ The next day, it dumps 35%. โ Solution: Remember, you don't have to catch every wave. There will be more.
โ ๏ธ TRAP 2: Panic Sell โ The market dips. You sell everything to "limit your losses." โ The market rebounds a few days later. You've locked in an avoidable loss. โ Solution: Have a set plan in advance. If you decided to hold for 2 years, hold for 2 years.
โ ๏ธ TRAP 3: Confirmation Bias โ You believe in a project. You only seek info that confirms your conviction. โ You ignore warning signals. โ Solution: Actively look for arguments against your position. It wonโt make you sell all the time โ but itโll help you avoid blind spots.
โ ๏ธ TRAP 4: Anchoring to Purchase Price โ You bought a coin at โฌ100. Itโs now at โฌ40. โ You refuse to sell because "itโs definitely going back to โฌ100." โ Solution: Evaluate the asset based on its current fundamentals โ not on what you paid.
๐ Exercise: Among these 4 traps, which one has hit you โ or still does? Be honest with yourself. Awareness is the first step.
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