Crypto_君少

Community position transfers to Binance group chat,
Here there are meme experts,
Here there are precise research teams,
Here there are secondary analysts,
Here there is a group of like-minded comrades!

The captain will take you flying, no crashing of the plane!

There are various benefits in the group, when making money everyone celebrates with red envelopes together, if you miss out, there will be someone to commiserate with you!
https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/group-chat-landing?channelToken=4jfOFh7j1A9DVg9w1kTuiA&type=1&entrySource=sharing_link

This time I must win🥇
Although the conditions are a bit poor, where there is a dream, there is a distance!

U.S. markets open next Monday: Iran first, earnings later

Brent settled at 116.72 last Friday, reaching 117 intraday—a six-month high.
Trump said there could be “another small-scale Epic Fury.”
His ambassador to Turkey said action could come as soon as this weekend.

Trump himself said: “I don’t know.”

Don’t make any rash moves next week—wait and see 👇
· Monday 21:30 ➣ U.S. markets open; watch oil prices first
· Tuesday 22:00 ➣ Consumer confidence, U.S. home sales
· Thursday 02:00 ➣ FOMC decision; Warsh speaks at 02:30
· Thursday 20:30 ➣ Q3 GDP + September PCE
· Friday 20:30 ➣ Japan’s unemployment rate + U.S. Employment Cost Index

The Fed just raised rates in September, so it will most likely hold steady this time. Few institutions are betting on another hike in December.

If PCE comes in hot again and Warsh strikes a hawkish tone, stocks, gold, and crypto could all take another nosedive.
Keep an eye on early Wednesday morning and Thursday night—those are the times to watch for market-moving developments.
$BTC $ETH

BTC's two main liquidation zones:

30D liquidation map
$72,000: Over $5 billion in cumulative long liquidations
$93,000: $10 billion in cumulative short liquidations
90D liquidation map
$72,000: $10.5 billion in cumulative long liquidations
$93,000: $10 billion in cumulative short liquidations

Looking at it this way, there's about the same amount to go after on either side. Which side will the market makers take first?
$BTC

Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are both plunging. What should we expect next?

The crypto market has shed another roughly $120 billion, and BTC has fallen below $81,000. Some say the A-share market is dragging it down…

I recently looked through Axel Adler Jr.’s data. The takeaway in one sentence: on-chain distribution is slowing, not accelerating into a crash.

LTH supply and spending snapshot
▶︎ Supply decline: From around 16.41 million BTC on July 30 to around 16.06 million BTC, a cumulative drop of roughly 345,000 BTC (about 2%).
▶︎ Spending frequency: It reached a near one-year high in early October (down on 13 of 15 days), but by October 19 had fallen back to around 10 days.
▶︎ Recent changes: Supply fell by only about 9,000 BTC over the past week, and actually rebounded by around 40,000 BTC over the last three days. Selling pressure has clearly eased.

☞ LTHs’ average cost basis is around $48,600, versus a current price of about $81,000. Their overall unrealized gains are still around 70%, which doesn’t look much like panic selling.
Historically, major turning points in LTH net positions have often coincided with cycle inflection points. Distribution at a market top usually involves three things: spending frequency surging persistently, prices failing to reach new highs, and short-term holders’ coins falling deeply into the red.
Right now, these three conditions aren’t really in place: spending is slowing, and ETFs are also showing signs of inflows again.

Looking back at the previous cycle, around June 2022, when the price plunged to roughly $17,600, LTH-MVRV briefly fell to 0.85—that is, LTHs were down about 15% overall.

Now, a look at the macro picture:
High interest rates + geopolitics + midterm elections—all three together are weighing on risk assets:
➫FOMC (2 a.m. on October 29): The market broadly expects rates to remain at 3.75%–4.00%. Inflation is sticky and the economy is still resilient, so under Warsh, the Fed may “skip October while keeping the option of rate hikes open.” For risk assets, that means liquidity won’t ease immediately.
➫Midterm elections (November 3): Prediction markets lean toward Democrats taking the House (and possibly the Senate). Historically, BTC has been volatile in the short term after midterm elections, but returns over the following 12 months have been positive in most recent cases. The real variable is progress on regulatory clarity, including the CLARITY Act. A divided Congress may slow legislation, but that doesn’t mean an across-the-board crackdown. Trump is still in the White House, so the administration’s stance on crypto is unlikely to reverse 180 degrees in the short term. The long-term outlook remains positive.
➫Regional conflicts: The conflict in the Middle East continues, keeping oil prices elevated. If it drags on, the energy shock will add further pressure to global inflation, ultimately weighing on risk assets.

The A-share market is dead,
please bless $BTC so it won't get caught up in this!

Just now: NEAR is voting on whether to reduce the number of new NEAR coins created each year

- From 2.5% of the supply to 1.6% per year, phased in over 24 months
- The vote ends on November 2
- Validators will still need to adopt it afterward

If you hold $NEAR and don’t stake it, your holdings will be diluted more slowly

🇯🇵 Breaking: The Nikkei opens down 2%, wiping more than 23.5 trillion yen ($150 billion) off Japanese stocks.

A sell-off in U.S. tech stocks and rising oil prices have rattled investors, while Japan faces the double pressure of weakness in tech stocks and high energy import costs.

How much farther can $BTC fly?

Is it really this expensive to get a wife these days?

Feels even more brutal than speculating on $BTC —I lost 1 million just like that!

Have you ever had this happen to you?

Last month, I placed a stop-loss for ETH on a perpetuals exchange, just below a key support level.

Then the price wicked down precisely to my level, stopped me out, and immediately bounced back. It wasn’t bad luck—the stop-loss level was completely exposed on-chain. I was an easy target to hunt.

This has happened to me more than once.
I place a big order, people figure out what I’m trying to do in advance, and the price moves against me. My strategy is out in the open, and within days, someone copies it and uses it against me. The price of transparency on-chain is that someone else always sees your next move first.

What I love most about Covenants is that they truly lock away that “next move.”
You set conditions—for example, buy ETH when BTC reaches a certain price, or only execute when a stop-loss is triggered—then encrypt them and put them on-chain. No one can read them until the conditions are met and they unlock and execute automatically. No keepers, no third parties peeking—the strategy is no longer exposed in advance.

Dusk is already running on Ethereum mainnet. It’s the first generation of Nillion’s seven-era roadmap, and apparently there’s more to come later this year.

What I’m most looking forward to is Darkfall’s multichain expansion and Nightside’s custom conditions—taking this ability to “lock away your intent” from a single chain to more complex cross-chain scenarios.

Privacy shouldn’t just be about the amount—it should protect your next move, too.
Will this wave of good news around NIL be enough to treat me to a bowl of pork trotter rice?
#nil $NIL @Nillion

Is everyone this rich?

Just now: Elon Musk says SpaceX $SPCXB will “very likely” reach a market capitalization of $100 trillion within 10 years, “unless a major world war breaks out.”

Stay away from coins with tightly controlled markets—they’ll wipe out both sides.

$BTW is a classic tightly controlled coin. The big players can pump it or dump it whenever they want, and both bulls and bears are just fuel.
You think you’ve figured it out, but really, you’ve just landed right where they want to harvest you.
Even some exchanges are starting to limit margin. Still think you can outplay them?
You can earn back lost money, but once your mindset breaks, it’s over.

Did he get cheated on...?

What are we comparing now?

Our parents’ retirement pensions?
Divorces?
Our kids’ grades?
Savings?

The more we compare, the more I feel like crying 😭

Midterm elections: Do you still want Trump to win?

From October through November 3,
the market is likely to be buoyed by positive news during this roughly three-week window.
Trump is using economic promises to campaign for the midterms: Vote for me, and I’ll give you $5,000 and keep us out of Iran.

This is a masterful, open-book strategy—he’s openly signaling a bullish stance. So don’t stubbornly cling to a bearish outlook. For now, the $BTC uptrend remains intact. Around $80K, bullish liquidity worth about $1.1 billion has just been liquidated. If a pullback holds near $82K, that would signal strong bullish momentum. If the long side is too crowded, price could also drop to the lower edge of the range—around $76.5K—before rallying again.

If you trade during this period, focus on U.S. stocks or assets correlated with them. Personally, I wouldn’t casually touch altcoins or HY—the coins being pumped are all heavily manipulated, and a downturn could liquidate you in just three seconds…

BTC liquidation zones:
▶︎ 86000–88000 ➫ Considerable cumulative short fuel; a relatively dense liquidity magnet above
▶︎ 79500–80500 ➫ Estimated at around 140M; around 74300, approximately 78M+; a denser zone at a deeper level

ETH liquidation zones:
▶︎ Around 2730–2755 is currently the densest area, with an estimated 222M in shorts
▶︎ Around 2370–2400, an estimated 129M in longs

One last question to throw out there:
If he loses the election, could the crypto world see a black swan event?
If he wins, will all that money come from the crypto market?

🚨Breaking:
In the past 24 hours, liquidation across the entire network totaled approximately $1.19 billion, of which longs accounted for $1.05 billion.

ETH liquidation was $350 million, higher than Bitcoin’s $304 million.

This round mainly targeted bullish leverage.

$ETH had both a higher percentage drop and a higher liquidation amount than Bitcoin, indicating that long positions are more crowded and under heavier pressure.