Crypto Doggy 叫我狗总

After the Stablecoin Bill 81 comes into effect, OTC offline stores in Hong Kong have been closing their quotation screens these days.

In the future, OTC merchants in Hong Kong cannot actively quote or promote the sale of usdt or usdc.

However, private sales of u to merchants are still allowed for now, and the trading of btc/eth and other non-stablecoins is not affected.

Now the probability of a rate cut in September is 91.2%. Goldman Sachs also predicts a cut, so I will follow this line of thinking and seek the sword:

In 2019, Trump was also engaged in a trade war, causing quite a stir. But by June, the market had fully anticipated a rate cut at the end of July (with a probability of over 80%), which is very similar.

Then in June-July 2019, U.S. tech stocks, such as Nvidia and Tesla, saw a general increase of around 30%.

So if Ethereum replicates this year, rising from 3500 to 4550 in two months, how much can other altcoins rise?

Looking back at history, during a past altcoin season, Ethereum rose by 30%, so:

Large altcoins (like $BNB , $SOL , XRP, ADA): average increase of 50-100%.

Mid to small market cap altcoins (like UNI, $SEI , HYPE): average increase of 100-300%.

Meme coins (like DOGE, SHIB, BONK): average increase of 100-500%.

Hope to replicate this, while also increasing by another order of magnitude. #美联储九月降息预期升温

Let’s talk about the reasons for today’s significant rise: Trump is pushing for 401(k) to invest in cryptocurrencies.

401(k) is different from the public pensions of the U.S. government that have already invested in cryptocurrencies; it is a pension plan primarily promoted by private enterprises in the U.S.

Public pensions are dictated by the fund managers who can decide to allocate funds to cryptocurrencies without any barriers. However, for 401(k), there are two layers of approval: the company selects major investment categories, and employees choose specific projects within those categories, meaning no one has absolute control.

Thus, pushing cryptocurrencies in 401(k) plans is quite difficult. Imagine this: if a company boss first selects the category for cryptocurrencies, and an employee invests in a specific cryptocurrency and makes a huge profit, the employee won’t share the gains with the company. But if the investment goes poorly, the employee will undoubtedly blame the company.

Moreover, during Biden's administration, the Department of Labor repeatedly advised caution and low-risk investments.

Do you think a cowardly company boss would dare to act, knowing employees might say, “The government didn’t allow this, and if I lose money, I’ll blame you”?

Therefore, Fidelity, as one of the largest 401(k) managers, is quite authoritative. It’s still very challenging to promote cryptocurrencies, with almost no company choosing to do so.

Previously, there was a smaller 401(k) manager called ForUsAll, primarily serving startups. They introduced a comprehensive cryptocurrency investment plan due to client demand, but they faced significant pressure during the bear market.

Now, what Trump aims to do is to have the Department of Labor issue guidelines stating that high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies and private equity should be allowed for companies to provide to employees, with the understanding that the risks are borne by the employees themselves.

This could be beneficial; it aligns everyone’s mindset. If employees lose money, they can’t blame the company using the government’s stance as an excuse. When Fidelity promotes cryptocurrencies, they can also offer some incentives, increasing operational flexibility.

Public pensions amount to $60 trillion, while 401(k) accounts hold $90 trillion. That’s a massive opportunity!

In fact, I believe that 401(k) is an excellent plan for regularly investing in cryptocurrencies. You contribute $1,000 every month, the company matches $500, and you can do this tax-free, locking it away until you’re 60. Just think about it, it’s exciting!

In this day and age, who in the younger generation still thinks about stable returns for pensions? They’d rather get welfare when they’re older. It’s all about the hustle!

If this portion of 401(k) funds goes into the cryptocurrency market locked away for decades, imagine how high the prices could rise! It’s hard to fathom, and it’s great news for us retail investors, haha.

One last question: if you could decide to allocate a portion of your monthly social security contributions to invest regularly in cryptocurrencies, would you do it?

#特朗普允许401(k)投资加密货币

Currently confirmed list of attendees for the March 7 White House Crypto Summit, let's see which investors and project parties are participating:

Michael Saylor – MicroStrategy

Bo Hines – White House Crypto Assets Commissioner

David Sacks – White House A.I. & Cryptocurrency Czar

Scott Bessent – U.S. Treasury Secretary

Howard Lutnick – U.S. Secretary of Commerce

Pam Bondi – U.S. Attorney General

David F. Bailey – BTC Inc. / Bitcoin Magazine

Matt Huang – Paradigm

JP Richardson – Edge

Kyle Samani – Multicoin Capital

Zach Witkoff – World Liberty Financial

Sergey Nazarov – Chainlink $LINK

Brian Armstrong – Coinbase

Vlad Tenev – Robinhood

Arjun Sethi – Kraken

It is said that the nominees for the SEC and CFTC chair positions that Trump will propose will also make an appearance. Let's expect something interesting.

Which altcoins will Trump shout about next? Those closely related will go through @BoHines, who is currently the person in charge of cryptocurrency affairs at the White House.

Dog God has exported his list of concerns, and the coins that may be queued for release are: $LINK $SUI $MOVE AVAX APT XLM DAG FIL CHIA

#美国加密战略储备

A big bullish candle! Trump just posted on TRUTH: Ensure that the U.S. cryptocurrency strategic reserve includes $XRP $SOL $ADA

The reason for the recent surge led by $SOL is that futures will be launched on March 17, and the spot ETF is expected to go online between April and June.

The SEC just released a bunch of altcoin ETF applications, including $TRUMP $SOL $DOGE $XRP $BONK

When will the super-good news be passed in the US Bitcoin Reserve Act? Today, I will give you a schedule:

Learning from history, the gold reserve bill is too old, so let's use the more recent 1975 oil reserve bill and 1992 electricity reserve bill as an analogy.

The oil one was submitted in December 1974, debated in Congress in June 1975, and passed and signed in December of that year.

The electricity one was submitted in February 1991, debated in Congress from March to June 1992, and passed and signed in October of that year.

Even those bills that were not passed, such as the 2021 universal income, 2013 gun control, and 2013 immigration reform, all started the congressional debate process the year after submission.

The Bitcoin Reserve Act, that is, @SenLummis's BITCOIN Act of 2024, was officially submitted in July 2024.

Mr. Gou predicts that according to the previous process, the congressional agenda will begin in the second quarter of 2025. If the Trump administration pushes forward with this matter, the results of the congressional vote will come out before the third quarter. If it passes, Trump will sign the bill at the end of the year.

Therefore, Q1 of 2025 is worth looking forward to. Just imagine that if the crypto market falls like a dog in the first quarter, then this bill will also be criticized like a dog in Congress.

In this way, if there is no economic black swan, the big dealers will have to protect the future of the industry to some extent. After all, once the US bill is passed, other countries in the world will follow suit, and the pattern will rise all of a sudden. The opportunity for the bill to pass, like the opportunity to fly to Mars mentioned by Musk, may be fleeting. If you miss this time, you don’t know when the next time will be.

Big dealers, if you are watching, please protect the spot market in at least the first half of 2024, with more growth in Q1 and more stability in Q2.

Just now, Michael Saylor from MicroStrategy posted again saying he won't sell Bitcoin regardless of its value. However, the dog just wants to say:

This year, the brother cashed out $120 million in company stock, which is his way of making money.

Although selling Bitcoin now is said to be the 'best historical trade', firstly, will the shareholders agree, and secondly, assuming they agree, crashing the crypto market does not necessarily mean high actual earnings for the company. As a personal shareholder and CEO, he won't get much, and it could also damage the company's stock price, his career, and reputation.

Once, a company on the decline must survive, the stock price must survive, and only then can one's own interests be maximized. The clever Saylor realized he could turn the company into an indirect Bitcoin ETF and Bitcoin concept stock, decisively choosing to enter the market and fill a gap, and unexpectedly, just a few years later, everything fell into place.

With the arrival of the 2024 bull market, the financing cost of convertible bonds is zero, riding the wave, directly pushing the Bitcoin premium up to three times. His equity incentives and the value of the stocks he holds are also rising, and they can be used as collateral for cash.

So, he cannot sell! The company also cannot sell! Unless in two situations: 1. Close to bankruptcy, 2. Many companies and countries follow suit, losing its advantages, after all, it was just the first, and this is a business with no entry barriers for anyone.

Just when we were having dinner, a friend was discussing whether this wave of Bitcoin decline was due to Citron’s release of a short Microstrategy report.

Mr. Gou will talk about this in detail.

Citron released a short MSTR report on November 21, which means that your MSTR/BTC premium is too high, so the strategy given is "short MSTR and long BTC", which directly caused MSTR to fall by nearly 20%, but BTC did not change much, and the premium was indeed reduced.

Don’t think that Citron’s previous shorting of Tesla and Evergrande feels very grand. Citron is actually a short KOL, and every time it makes money, it releases news to manipulate the market.

Discuss the release time and share of the report with the hedge fund. After the release, the hedge fund is responsible for manipulating the stock price and cooperating with the news to smash, smash, smash, smash, and so on, causing more small households to panic and follow suit.

Citron’s boss was just accused by the SEC this year for colluding secretly to play this trick.

As for Bitcoin, in fact, the long-short ratio on major exchanges reached about 1.3 over the weekend. The bullish sentiment was high, and it was imperative to clear a wave of long orders.

I don’t think that Citron and the hedge funds it colluded with are strong enough to manipulate the price of Bitcoin. It should not be a wave of people, but the market sentiment has arrived, and the timing of the two sides’ smashing is just one after the other.

Although MSTR fell before, its narrative was tied to Bitcoin. If Bitcoin did not fall, there would not be enough panic. Now Bitcoin has fallen by 10%. After the opening of the U.S. stock market today, MSTR has enough small households to panic.

According to the script of most of Citron’s previous short-selling cases, after short-term profit-taking, it is highly likely that MSTR will continue to rise, and small households that follow the trend will become fuel.

After clearing the low leverage of Bitcoin this time, the long-short ratio will ease, and it will continue to rise. After all, there are still some huge narratives that have not been unfolded in the short term.

Dog's summary of the first debate between Trump and Harris:

Trump still maintained a high level, but Harris was stronger than I expected, and performed better than in some clips. She was fully prepared and had perfect debate skills. She was worthy of being a local prosecutor for 8 years and the Attorney General for 6 years, and she had debated with lawyers a lot;

The arguments of both sides were basically within expectations, and no one was unable to answer or was defeated (unlike Biden's incoherent speech). However, there were some small highlights, such as:

1. The host who hates Trump caught a small braid, that is, Trump's VP JD Vance once said that Trump would veto the national abortion ban. Trump could only say "I didn't, I didn't discuss it with him, he guessed blindly", and JD Vance's big mouth hurt Trump here.

2. Trump said: An illegal immigrant stole and ate the pet dog, and the host said: In fact, there was no.

3. Trump prepared a joke in advance, that is: Harris was interrupted by Pence in the debate with Pence, so she said "I'm talking". When Trump was interrupted by Harris today, he also said "I'm talking" and mocked the other party "Sounds familiar". This little trick is very suitable for meme dissemination.

4. When Trump questioned Obama's health care plan, Harris countered with "Do you have a better plan?" Then he played Tai Chi and said "I will study it", which was not handled well.

An hour later, the Democratic media immediately assisted, and Harris led by 63% in the poll support rate, showing that Trump was completely defeated.

But I always want to say something fair. The host once called Trump a member of the KKK. This debate was biased from the beginning, and the possibility of Harris leaking the topic in advance cannot be ruled out.

I hope that the two sides will have another match on the Republican media FOX, and the host can guide some slots against Harris. However, because everyone forgets quickly, the debate near the voting day is really important. It is not ruled out that some big melons and big news will not appear until then.

Finally, because the cryptocurrency market is cold, the host has no public pressure to bring up topics related to the cryptocurrency market, which is the same as what Mr. Gou predicted before. Don’t be too sad, because if the Democratic Party’s financial sponsor Blackrock has already taken control of the market, then it is logical to suppress the market and cool it down before the election.

Continued from the previous article: Mr. Gou digs deep into the Trump family's cryptocurrency project wlfi

After all, there are only so many things you can do with Defi, and it has been played out so far. How can you come up with something new and create a grand scene worthy of the King of Understanding?

1. First of all, because the project is progressing very quickly, there is a high probability that the existing source code will be revised, and 99% is still based on $ETH , even $AAVE ;

2. There is a high probability that the token will be issued. Referring to the Dough Finance model used for small-scale testing, the token may be obtained through the Sale+Farm model, pre-sale to get the token, and lending in the pool to get the token. The token has the right to share the platform fee dividend and voting rights, but cannot be traded, so that it can escape the definition of securities in the United States and is not subject to SEC supervision;

3. The platform may integrate a fast platform such as Moonpay for the exchange of fiat currency to cryptocurrency to facilitate newcomers to get started;

4. After USDC is lent on the platform, it may be guided to Witkoff's existing industries, such as a shortcut to book a hotel, buy a house, and pay rent.

Finally, Dog estimates that this platform will be preheated from September to the end of the November election. It will be officially launched after the dust settles. By the way, the platform needs a large amount of ETH, so centralized procurement from the Ethereum Foundation is a good choice, and the discount should be negotiable.