CryptoChan

Let’s take a look at two pieces of data from the Bitcoin market value to realized market value ratio indicator (#Bitcoin: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) in different periods (the two pieces of data started from the day when Bitcoin production was halved in 2016/20 respectively).

At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.

破‼️$BTC

【 $BTC 熊 bottom left side eighty-one-day scheduled investment check-in】

Today is the 41st day of scheduled investment completed. The current progress is already past halfway 🦿

It's just $39 away from dropping below the threshold

📌 The peak value of this metric in 2015 differs from the peak value in 2019 by 1385 days
📌 The peak value of this metric in 2019 differs from the peak value in 2023 by 1380 days
📌 The peak value of this metric in 2023 has been 1280 days from today

┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐

The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of “the average buying cost of long-term on-chain coin holders” to “the average buying cost of short-term on-chain coin holders.” In the past, the peak values of this indicator have always corresponded to the Bitcoin bull-bear turning points

📌 2015: After the black line broke below the blue line, 48 days later to the second bottom (the lowest point)
📌 2019: After the black line broke below the blue line, 32 days later to the second bottom (the lowest point)
📌 2022: After the black line broke below the blue line, 26 days later to the second bottom (the lowest point)
📌 2026: After the black line broke below the blue line, 32 days to $57.8k

⚫️ The black line is the average buy-in cost of on-chain holders who invest for 3–6 months
🔵 The blue line is the average buy-in cost of on-chain holders who invest for 1–2 years

【 $BTC Four-year cycle total market-bottom series (40) 】

The classic “three-stage bottoming” is concluding as expected 🧘‍♂️

┌── 🐼 On-chain Data Details ──┐

📊 Bitcoin STH-MVRV is perfectly replaying the bottoming fractal structure from 2021–2022

Observe the red line in the chart. After Bitcoin’s STH-MVRV breaks below 1.0 (the short-term investor breakeven line), it doesn’t immediately reverse; instead, it forms a classic “three-stage bottoming” structure:

1️⃣ First breakdown: A wave of panic selling emerges, dropping below 1.0
2️⃣ Deep washout: After a rebound to 1.0 meets resistance, the largest-magnitude second dip occurs (the deepest spike/bottom in the chart)
3️⃣ Convergence confirmation: We are currently in the late stage of the third bottom of this “round”—the lows begin to rise, forming a local-convergence W-bottom variant

History won’t repeat itself exactly, but it often follows similar rhythms. The previous two deep declines have already completed the cleansing of shaky holdings. Once the indicator turns bullish, breaks through, and holds above 1.0, it means short-term capital has fully shaken off losses—then the trend will enter a true right-side reversal.

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【$BTC four-year cycle series update】

With $58k, this wave: Bitcoin on-chain long-term holders are currently showing the highest unrealized-loss chip value share, hitting 34.5%. Historically, it is only second to the last drop in 2015.

Today, four years later, the second exploration is still in full swing

Those who follow the cycle prosper; those who go against it perish 😎

From 2025 to 2026 in style 😎

【 $BTC four-year cycle total engraving series (39)】

513 days before the 2020 halving is the bear bottom
516 days before the 2024 halving is the bear bottom
542 days before the 2016 halving is the bear bottom
There are 641 days left before the 2028 halving

$BTC On-chain short-term investors MVRV is lifting from the low point, currently in 21-22 years

There are only $391 left before it breaks below the limit: #BTC #bitcoin

Cycle #BTC

Historically, the black line has broken below the blue line at the bear bottom range.

Currently, we're $1,046 away from the black line breaking below the blue line.

┌ Indicator Details ┐

Black Line: Average buy-in cost of short-term investors holding for <155 days.
Blue Line: Average buy-in cost of all investors holding for 0 - 7 years.

When the black line dips below the blue line, it signals that all investors start facing unrealized losses. At this point, the selling pressure across the network and the overall sentiment may reach a breaking point, often indicating a bear market bottom.

Two dips? Solid! 😏

(Current Bitcoin median buy-in cost: $63,402)

📌 2015: After the black line crossed below the blue line, it took 48 days to hit the bear market's second bottom price point.
📌 2019: After the black line crossed below the blue line, it took 32 days to hit the bear market's second bottom price point.
📌 2022: After the black line crossed below the blue line, it took 26 days to hit the bear market's second bottom price point.
📌 2026: After the black line crossed below the blue line, it took 09 days to reach $59k.

Currently, the BTC price has crossed below the 200-day moving average (black line), signaling a death cross with the true market average cost line for Bitcoin (blue line).

As of September 2022

┌── 📑 Indicator Details ──┐

The true market average cost for Bitcoin, also known as the "active investor price," isn't just a simple average of all coins' realized prices. It's specifically targeted at coins actively traded on the secondary market: the formula is Investor Cap (the market cap excluding mined coins that haven't entered the secondary market) divided by Active Supply (time-weighted active supply, excluding long-dormant and lost coins). This reflects the real average cost of coins for genuinely active investors in the market (excluding miner-minted coins, lost coins, and long-term inactive holdings) and is seen as the closest model to the "true market average" aggregation cost.

Let me break it down for you, folks. This is my panda's secret weapon: the "1234 Bull-Bear Coin Holding Strategy" 👇

🪙 10% Faith Wallet (Mnemonic Board): 【Etch Wealth into Eternity】
Just toss 256 coins to generate a SHA private key, engraved on a titanium plate—come what may (just remember to choose evenly weighted coins 🌚)

🧊 20% Strategic Wallet (Hardware Cold Wallet): 【Hunting Black Swans in the Abyss】
Physically isolated, silent for years. Just waiting for a black swan to strike—plug it in and scoop up bloody chips (but it’s always a struggle halfway up the mountain 🤓)

🔥 30% Guerrilla Wallet (On-chain Hot Wallet): 【Capturing Alpha in the Eye of the Storm】
This iron rule has only one thing: under limited exposure, ruthlessly outperform the Bitcoin benchmark (but it’s still kind of pointless 🤪)

📈 40% Main Wallet (Top Exchanges): 【Breathing with the Macro Cycle】
High sell, low buy in the big cycles of bull tops and bear bottoms (still kind of pointless 🐶, but it can improve your lifestyle)

——
10% for bottom line protection, 20% for extreme cold defense, 30% for chasing excess returns, 40% for riding the cycles.
Attack when possible, defend when needed. How’s your portfolio system set up? Let’s chat in the comments below 👇

BTC dropped to $59k this time, the ratio of on-chain (coins held for less than 7 years) unrealized profit chips to unrealized loss chips has tanked to a historic low of 0.45.