CryptoChan

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (16)】

Previous round coin price above total of 1136 days
Last round coin price above total of 1143 days
This round coin price above total has been 988 days

The indicators in the figure are BTC price and BTC: Realized Price (modified, excluding coins held for more than 7 years from the calculation), coin price > Realized Price is counted as above

BTC: Realized Price is an on-chain indicator that excludes those bitcoins held for more than 7 years when calculating (these coins are often seen as very long-term holdings, lost, or inactive supply, and will not easily enter market circulation)

This indicator reflects the average buying price of chips. Specifically, it represents the average cost price of relatively more active market participants (those holding coins for less than 7 years), which can better capture current market dynamics, potential selling pressure, and investor sentiment.

The current indicator in the chart has dropped to 3.16

In 2014, this indicator fell from 3.16 to 1, taking 285 days
In 2018, this indicator dropped from 3.16 to 1, taking 274 days
In 2022, this indicator fell from 3.16 to 1, taking 296 days

The upper indicator in the chart represents the BTC price;
The middle indicator in the chart represents the realized profit of Bitcoin (365-day MA) and the realized loss of Bitcoin (365-day MA);
The lower indicator in the chart is the ratio of the realized profit of Bitcoin (365-day MA) to the realized loss of Bitcoin (365-day MA), also known as the 'Realized Profit and Loss Ratio (365-day MA)'

This ratio reflects the overall profit and loss status of market participants by comparing the moving average of the profits realized by investors (the portion where the selling price is higher than the buying price) and the losses (the portion where the selling price is lower than the buying price) over the past 365 days

In a bull market, the profit and loss ratio is usually higher, as investors tend to lock in profits at high prices
In a bear market, this ratio is usually lower, as investors may sell at a loss, reflecting market panic or capitulation behavior

The 365-day moving average smooths out short-term fluctuations and highlights long-term trends. This indicator is suitable for determining whether the market is in a state of overheating (high ratio) or excessive panic (low ratio), making it a powerful tool for assessing market cycles and trends.

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (17)】

The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.

The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."

The mouth is tightening (Bitcoin realized profits have decreased & realized losses have increased)

The top indicator in the chart is the BTC price
The middle indicator in the chart is Bitcoin realized profits (365-day MA) and Bitcoin realized losses (365-day MA)
The bottom indicator in the chart is the ratio of Bitcoin realized profits (365-day MA) to Bitcoin realized losses (365-day MA), which is the "realized profit-loss ratio (365-day MA)"

This ratio reflects the overall profit and loss status of market participants by comparing the moving average of realized profits (the part where the selling price is higher than the buying price) and losses (the part where the selling price is lower than the buying price) over the past 365 days.

In a bull market, the profit-loss ratio is usually high because investors tend to take profits at high prices.
In a bear market, this ratio is usually low because investors may sell at a loss, reflecting market panic or capitulation behavior.

Using the 365-day moving average smooths short-term fluctuations and highlights long-term trends. This indicator is suitable for determining whether the market is in a state of overheating (high ratio) or excessive panic (low ratio), and is a powerful tool for judging market cycles and trends.

"Bottom callback at the end of June" carved
"Mid-August stage top" carved
"Bottom callback at the end of August - beginning of September" carved
"Final bull top from mid-September to mid-October" or also carved

This round is complete, carving finished!😎

Waiting for the light green bottom signal to appear again

Bitcoin: Value Days Destroyed Multiple (VDD Multiple) is an on-chain metric for Bitcoin that measures the ratio of short-term spending velocity to the long-term average level, helping to identify potential market cycle tops and bottoms. It is based on Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which is the number of coin days destroyed (giving higher weight to Bitcoin that has not moved for a long time to reflect the behavior of long-term holders), and then multiplied by the current Bitcoin price to obtain Value Days Destroyed (VDD). The calculation formula for VDD Multiple is: the average of 30-day VDD divided by the average of 365-day VDD

When VDD Multiple < 0.75 (the light green area in the chart), it reflects a reduction in short-term spending velocity relative to the annual average level, indicating that long-term holders are selling old coins less frequently, and the overall market spending vitality is lower. This usually suggests that the market is in a cooling period, accumulation phase, or potential cycle bottom, with long-term holders more inclined to hold rather than sell, possibly representing relative undervaluation or buying opportunities.

Note: The current high reading of this indicator is due to the recent address consolidation by Coinbase, and the data pollution caused by this event will be eliminated 30 days after it occurs.

522 days after the 16-year BTC mining output was halved, the Bitcoin RHODL indicator reached the peak of the bull market (December 14, 2017, the coin price was $16.7k, non-K-line bull top);

533 days after the 20-year BTC mining output was halved, the Bitcoin RHODL indicator reached the peak of the bull market (October 26, 2021, the coin price was $62.7k, non-K-line bull top);

Currently, 114 days have passed since the 24-year BTC mining output was halved.

The indicator in the figure is Bitcoin RHODL (Realized HODL Ratio), which is the ratio of the number of BTC on the chain that has not moved for less than 1 week to the number of BTC that has not moved for 1-2 years (the number of BTC in different age groups needs to be weighted according to the total market value of the purchase cost of all BTC in their age groups).

The red line is the 13-17 years period of the indicator; the blue line is the 17-21 years period of the indicator; and the black line is the 21 years to date period of the indicator. The three lines align the halving days of BTC mining output in their respective cycles.

"Bottom callback at the end of June" carved
"Mid-August stage top" carved
"Bottom callback at the end of August - beginning of September" carved
"Final bull top from mid-September to mid-October" or also carved

This round is complete, carving finished!😎

The mouth is tightening (Bitcoin realized profits have decreased & realized losses have increased)

The top indicator in the chart is the BTC price
The middle indicator in the chart is Bitcoin realized profits (365-day MA) and Bitcoin realized losses (365-day MA)
The bottom indicator in the chart is the ratio of Bitcoin realized profits (365-day MA) to Bitcoin realized losses (365-day MA), which is the "realized profit-loss ratio (365-day MA)"

This ratio reflects the overall profit and loss status of market participants by comparing the moving average of realized profits (the part where the selling price is higher than the buying price) and losses (the part where the selling price is lower than the buying price) over the past 365 days.

In a bull market, the profit-loss ratio is usually high because investors tend to take profits at high prices.
In a bear market, this ratio is usually low because investors may sell at a loss, reflecting market panic or capitulation behavior.

Using the 365-day moving average smooths short-term fluctuations and highlights long-term trends. This indicator is suitable for determining whether the market is in a state of overheating (high ratio) or excessive panic (low ratio), and is a powerful tool for judging market cycles and trends.

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (4)】

1431 days to the next bear bottom after the bear bottom in 2015
1437 days to the next bear bottom after the bear bottom in 2018
1060 days have passed since the bear bottom in 2022

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (17)】

The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.

The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."

The Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR indicator has dipped to the low point of this bull market

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR stands for Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, which is the ratio of profits realized by long-term holders who have spent their outputs. It is an on-chain Bitcoin metric that calculates the profit ratio of addresses (defined as long-term holders) that have held for more than 155 days when they sell Bitcoin. Specifically, this indicator assesses the ratio of the selling price of these long-held coins to their original acquisition price: if LTH-SOPR is greater than 1, it indicates that long-term holders are selling at a profit; equal to 1 indicates a break-even; and less than 1 indicates a loss on sale.

This indicator reflects the market behavior of long-term holders and the overall market sentiment. For example, when LTH-SOPR is high, it may suggest that long-term holders are locking in profits, implying that the market may be at the peak of a bull market or in an overheated phase; conversely, when it is low (especially below 1), it indicates that long-term holders are selling at a loss, which may signal the market bottom or the end of a bear market, thus helping investors determine potential buying or selling opportunities.

The 30-day injection of market funds in the first two waves of this round is at a low level

The Realized Cap 30d Net Change is an on-chain metric that acts like a “fund flow meter,” reflecting the real inflow and outflow of funds in the Bitcoin network in real-time

In simple terms, this indicator tells us: over the past 30 days, have investors been injecting funds into this market or pulling out funds

Positive (upward): indicates that the price of coins when handed over is higher than the price at which they last moved. This means new funds are entering the market, absorbing sell orders, and raising the overall market holding cost. This is usually characteristic of a bull market or a rebound
Negative (downward): indicates that the price of coins when handed over is lower than the last moving price (i.e., investors are selling at a loss). This means funds are flowing out of the network, or the market lacks sufficient buy orders to support transactions at high prices. This usually occurs in a bear market or during a severe washout phase

Severe positive peaks: often appear in the mid to late stages of a bull market. At this point, a large amount of profit-taking occurs (old coins moving), while new entrants, the “buying knights,” take over at extremely high prices, causing the realized market value to soar. If this value is too high, it may indicate that the market is overheating
Breaking below the zero axis and continuing to decline: this is a signal of “capitulation.” When this indicator turns from positive to negative, it indicates that the market has entered a stage of loss exit, and sentiment has shifted from optimistic to pessimistic

Realized Cap is different from regular Market Cap; it is not calculated by multiplying the current market price by the supply, but rather by the price at which each coin last moved
Thus, the 30-day net change actually reflects the degree of fluctuation in the average holding cost (Cost Basis) of investors across the network over the past month

In summary, you can think of it as the “total blood volume change” of the Bitcoin market
If the value is increasing, it indicates that the market is “rehydrating,” with support for the trend;
If the value is shrinking, it indicates that the market is “bleeding,” and even if the price is rising, it may just be a short squeeze or a lack of momentum for a false rise.