CryptoChan 熊猫
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CryptoChan 熊猫
Square VerifiedBitcoin on-chain & cycle analysis，比特币链上行情分析
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|| X：CryptoChan 熊猫（@0xCryptoChan）
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CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Mark Series 60】
Sep 2015: After the price breaks the green line, 78 days to the recovery phase top
Apr 2019: After the price breaks the green line, 85 days to the recovery phase top
Jan 2023: After the price breaks the green line, 85 days to the recovery phase secondary top
Current: The price has already been above the green line for 18 days
┌─ Indicator Details ─┐
The green line is the average buy price (based on the UTXO version) of BTC whose on-chain holding duration is between 3 and 6 months.
Sep 2015: After the price breaks the green line, 78 days to the recovery phase top
Apr 2019: After the price breaks the green line, 85 days to the recovery phase top
Jan 2023: After the price breaks the green line, 85 days to the recovery phase secondary top
Current: The price has already been above the green line for 18 days
┌─ Indicator Details ─┐
The green line is the average buy price (based on the UTXO version) of BTC whose on-chain holding duration is between 3 and 6 months.
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle series 86】
November 2015: The red line breaks through the green line — 1.4 months later to the bull market recovery top
May 2019: The red line breaks through the green line — 1.2 months later to the bull market recovery top
June 2023: The red line breaks through the green line — 1.3 months later to the bull market recovery top
┌─ 🐼 Indicator Details ─┐
Red line: Average buy-in price of on-chain short-term holders’ coin lots
Green line: Average buy-in price of on-chain long-term holders’ coin lots (excluding BTC that hasn’t moved in >7 years)
November 2015: The red line breaks through the green line — 1.4 months later to the bull market recovery top
May 2019: The red line breaks through the green line — 1.2 months later to the bull market recovery top
June 2023: The red line breaks through the green line — 1.3 months later to the bull market recovery top
┌─ 🐼 Indicator Details ─┐
Red line: Average buy-in price of on-chain short-term holders’ coin lots
Green line: Average buy-in price of on-chain long-term holders’ coin lots (excluding BTC that hasn’t moved in >7 years)
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【Bitcoin Bull Market Escape-Topping Countdown Series 05】
2015 Bear Market Bottom: After the green-orange death cross, 1045 days to the great bull top
2019 Bear Market Bottom: After the green-orange death cross, 1028 days to the great bull top
2022 Bear Market Bottom: After the green-orange death cross, 1063 days to the great bull top
2026 Bear Market Bottom: After the green-orange death cross, 59 days have passed
┌─ Indicator Details ─┐
Green line: The average buy price of $BTC for on-chain positions held for 6–12 months
Orange line: The average buy price of $BTC for on-chain positions held for 12–18 months
2015 Bear Market Bottom: After the green-orange death cross, 1045 days to the great bull top
2019 Bear Market Bottom: After the green-orange death cross, 1028 days to the great bull top
2022 Bear Market Bottom: After the green-orange death cross, 1063 days to the great bull top
2026 Bear Market Bottom: After the green-orange death cross, 59 days have passed
┌─ Indicator Details ─┐
Green line: The average buy price of $BTC for on-chain positions held for 6–12 months
Orange line: The average buy price of $BTC for on-chain positions held for 12–18 months
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle total keystroke series 66】
June 2015: After the price breaks through the blue line, 183 days to reach the recovery peak
February 2019: After the price breaks through the blue line, 128 days to reach the recovery peak
January 2023: After the price breaks through the blue line, 182 days to reach the recovery peak
July 2026: Blue line broken for 58 days already
┌── Indicator Details ──┐
Black line: Bitcoin circulating market capitalization
Blue line: Bitcoin on-chain long-term holders' total market value, 365-day moving average
June 2015: After the price breaks through the blue line, 183 days to reach the recovery peak
February 2019: After the price breaks through the blue line, 128 days to reach the recovery peak
January 2023: After the price breaks through the blue line, 182 days to reach the recovery peak
July 2026: Blue line broken for 58 days already
┌── Indicator Details ──┐
Black line: Bitcoin circulating market capitalization
Blue line: Bitcoin on-chain long-term holders' total market value, 365-day moving average
CryptoChan 熊猫
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Break through the orange line! This round of the “$BTC Bear-to-Bull Launch Phase” has officially come to an end 🎉
📌 The 2019 “Bear-to-Bull Launch Phase” lasted 74 days
📌 The 2023 “Bear-to-Bull Launch Phase” lasted 61 days
📌 The 2026 “Bear-to-Bull Launch Phase” lasted 62 days
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
Black line: Bitcoin circulating market cap
Orange line: 365-day moving average of Bitcoin circulating market cap
Blue line: 365-day moving average of the total market value of on-chain long-term holders’ holdings
📌 The 2019 “Bear-to-Bull Launch Phase” lasted 74 days
📌 The 2023 “Bear-to-Bull Launch Phase” lasted 61 days
📌 The 2026 “Bear-to-Bull Launch Phase” lasted 62 days
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
Black line: Bitcoin circulating market cap
Orange line: 365-day moving average of Bitcoin circulating market cap
Blue line: 365-day moving average of the total market value of on-chain long-term holders’ holdings
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle total engraving series 75】
September 2015: Purple column reaches the top — 2.6 months later, the peak of the bull market recovery phase
April 2019: Purple column reaches the top — 2.9 months later, the peak of the bull market recovery phase
January 2023: Purple column reaches the top — 2.9 months later, the secondary peak of the bull market recovery phase
August 2026: Purple column reaches the top — 1.2 months have passed since then
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
Orange line: Bitcoin total cost market cap
Purple column: Percentage drawdown of the orange line compared with the previous high
September 2015: Purple column reaches the top — 2.6 months later, the peak of the bull market recovery phase
April 2019: Purple column reaches the top — 2.9 months later, the peak of the bull market recovery phase
January 2023: Purple column reaches the top — 2.9 months later, the secondary peak of the bull market recovery phase
August 2026: Purple column reaches the top — 1.2 months have passed since then
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
Orange line: Bitcoin total cost market cap
Purple column: Percentage drawdown of the orange line compared with the previous high
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC Four-Year Cycle Total Mark Series 60】
Sep 2015: After the price breaks the green line, 78 days to the recovery phase top
Apr 2019: After the price breaks the green line, 85 days to the recovery phase top
Jan 2023: After the price breaks the green line, 85 days to the recovery phase secondary top
Current: The price has already been above the green line for 18 days
┌─ Indicator Details ─┐
The green line is the average buy price (based on the UTXO version) of BTC whose on-chain holding duration is between 3 and 6 months.
Sep 2015: After the price breaks the green line, 78 days to the recovery phase top
Apr 2019: After the price breaks the green line, 85 days to the recovery phase top
Jan 2023: After the price breaks the green line, 85 days to the recovery phase secondary top
Current: The price has already been above the green line for 18 days
┌─ Indicator Details ─┐
The green line is the average buy price (based on the UTXO version) of BTC whose on-chain holding duration is between 3 and 6 months.
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle total high-cut series 67】
2012.07: 34 days after the purple-and-green golden cross to the recovery-phase peak
2015.11: 16 days after the purple-and-green golden cross to the recovery-phase peak
2019.05: 53 days after the purple-and-green golden cross to the recovery-phase peak
2023.02: 47 days after the purple-and-green golden cross to the recovery-phase secondary peak
┌─ Indicator details ─┐
Purple line: the average buy price of BTC held on-chain for 1–3 months
Green line: the average buy price of BTC held on-chain for 3–6 months
2012.07: 34 days after the purple-and-green golden cross to the recovery-phase peak
2015.11: 16 days after the purple-and-green golden cross to the recovery-phase peak
2019.05: 53 days after the purple-and-green golden cross to the recovery-phase peak
2023.02: 47 days after the purple-and-green golden cross to the recovery-phase secondary peak
┌─ Indicator details ─┐
Purple line: the average buy price of BTC held on-chain for 1–3 months
Green line: the average buy price of BTC held on-chain for 3–6 months
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle total engraving series 77】
November 2015 orange line breaks through 100%: 41 days later to the bull market recovery top
May 2019 orange line breaks through 100%: 43 days later to the bull market recovery top
May 2023 orange line breaks through 100%: 49 days later to the bull market recovery top
┌─ 🐼 Indicator details ─┐
Black line: Bitcoin price
Orange line: Bitcoin value day-sale burn multiple (VDD Multiple), showing the ratio of on-chain short-term coin-selling strength to the annual average level
November 2015 orange line breaks through 100%: 41 days later to the bull market recovery top
May 2019 orange line breaks through 100%: 43 days later to the bull market recovery top
May 2023 orange line breaks through 100%: 49 days later to the bull market recovery top
┌─ 🐼 Indicator details ─┐
Black line: Bitcoin price
Orange line: Bitcoin value day-sale burn multiple (VDD Multiple), showing the ratio of on-chain short-term coin-selling strength to the annual average level
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle total key series 64】
📌 May 2019: 50 days after the red-black crossover to the peak of the bull market recovery phase
📌 February 2023: 47 days after the red-black crossover to the second-highest peak of the bull market recovery phase
📌 August 2026: 22 days after the red-black crossover
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
Gray line: Bitcoin price
Red line: Average buy-in price of on-chain short-term holders of coin/pie crumbs
Black line: Bitcoin price 200-day moving average
📌 May 2019: 50 days after the red-black crossover to the peak of the bull market recovery phase
📌 February 2023: 47 days after the red-black crossover to the second-highest peak of the bull market recovery phase
📌 August 2026: 22 days after the red-black crossover
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
Gray line: Bitcoin price
Red line: Average buy-in price of on-chain short-term holders of coin/pie crumbs
Black line: Bitcoin price 200-day moving average
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle total notch series 74】
📌 In Nov 2015, this indicator broke above the +1 standard deviation line: after 21 days, it started the bull-market recovery top run
📌 In May 2019, this indicator broke above the +2 standard deviation line: after 27 days, it started the bull-market recovery top run
📌 In Mar 2023, this indicator broke above the +1 standard deviation line: after 20 days, it started the bull-market recovery secondary top run
📌 In Sep 2026, this indicator broke above the +1 standard deviation line: adjusted by 3 days
┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐
Black line: Bitcoin price
Orange line: Bitcoin on-chain short-term holder MVRV, and its five standard deviation lines: +2σ, +1σ, 0σ, -0.8σ, -1.6σ (4-year rolling window sampled data)
📌 In Nov 2015, this indicator broke above the +1 standard deviation line: after 21 days, it started the bull-market recovery top run
📌 In May 2019, this indicator broke above the +2 standard deviation line: after 27 days, it started the bull-market recovery top run
📌 In Mar 2023, this indicator broke above the +1 standard deviation line: after 20 days, it started the bull-market recovery secondary top run
📌 In Sep 2026, this indicator broke above the +1 standard deviation line: adjusted by 3 days
┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐
Black line: Bitcoin price
Orange line: Bitcoin on-chain short-term holder MVRV, and its five standard deviation lines: +2σ, +1σ, 0σ, -0.8σ, -1.6σ (4-year rolling window sampled data)
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle series 86】
November 2015: The red line breaks through the green line — 1.4 months later to the bull market recovery top
May 2019: The red line breaks through the green line — 1.2 months later to the bull market recovery top
June 2023: The red line breaks through the green line — 1.3 months later to the bull market recovery top
┌─ 🐼 Indicator Details ─┐
Red line: Average buy-in price of on-chain short-term holders’ coin lots
Green line: Average buy-in price of on-chain long-term holders’ coin lots (excluding BTC that hasn’t moved in >7 years)
November 2015: The red line breaks through the green line — 1.4 months later to the bull market recovery top
May 2019: The red line breaks through the green line — 1.2 months later to the bull market recovery top
June 2023: The red line breaks through the green line — 1.3 months later to the bull market recovery top
┌─ 🐼 Indicator Details ─┐
Red line: Average buy-in price of on-chain short-term holders’ coin lots
Green line: Average buy-in price of on-chain long-term holders’ coin lots (excluding BTC that hasn’t moved in >7 years)
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle series 85】
2012 red to green: 48 days later, reaches the bull market recovery top
2015 red to green: 46 days later, reaches the bull market recovery top
2019 red to green: 64 days later, reaches the bull market recovery top
2023 red to green: 44 days later, reaches the bull market recovery secondary top
2026 red to green: 23 days have already passed
┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the percentage of total market cap represented by Bitcoin’s 60-day net realized profit/loss (USD).<0 red, >0 green
2012 red to green: 48 days later, reaches the bull market recovery top
2015 red to green: 46 days later, reaches the bull market recovery top
2019 red to green: 64 days later, reaches the bull market recovery top
2023 red to green: 44 days later, reaches the bull market recovery secondary top
2026 red to green: 23 days have already passed
┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the percentage of total market cap represented by Bitcoin’s 60-day net realized profit/loss (USD).<0 red, >0 green
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle series 84】
In 2012, the BTC price broke through the blue line: the bull market recovery top came 42 days later
In 2015, the BTC price broke through the blue line: the bull market recovery top came 50 days later
In 2019, the BTC price broke through the blue line: the bull market recovery top came 46 days later
In 2023, the BTC price broke through the blue line: the bull market recovery secondary top came 26 days later
Current blue line: $89,338
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
Grey line: Bitcoin price
Blue line: the average buy price of BTC held on-chain for 6–12 months
In 2012, the BTC price broke through the blue line: the bull market recovery top came 42 days later
In 2015, the BTC price broke through the blue line: the bull market recovery top came 50 days later
In 2019, the BTC price broke through the blue line: the bull market recovery top came 46 days later
In 2023, the BTC price broke through the blue line: the bull market recovery secondary top came 26 days later
Current blue line: $89,338
┌── 🐼 Indicator Details ──┐
Grey line: Bitcoin price
Blue line: the average buy price of BTC held on-chain for 6–12 months
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle series 83】
Before the 16-17 Big Bull main surge: before the main surge, the coin price consolidated near the orange line for 206 days
Before the 20-21 Big Bull main surge: before the main surge, the coin price consolidated near the orange line for 251 days (ignore the subsequent 312 “black swan” days)
Before the 24-25 Big Bull main surge: before the main surge, the coin price consolidated near the orange line for 218 days
Before the 28-29 Big Bull main surge: before the main surge, the coin price had already been consolidating near the orange line for 40 days
┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐
Orange line: True Market Mean Price (and its +5% / -5% lines). It measures the average purchase cost of genuinely actively traded circulating Bitcoins in the secondary market
Before the 16-17 Big Bull main surge: before the main surge, the coin price consolidated near the orange line for 206 days
Before the 20-21 Big Bull main surge: before the main surge, the coin price consolidated near the orange line for 251 days (ignore the subsequent 312 “black swan” days)
Before the 24-25 Big Bull main surge: before the main surge, the coin price consolidated near the orange line for 218 days
Before the 28-29 Big Bull main surge: before the main surge, the coin price had already been consolidating near the orange line for 40 days
┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐
Orange line: True Market Mean Price (and its +5% / -5% lines). It measures the average purchase cost of genuinely actively traded circulating Bitcoins in the secondary market
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle series 82】
Before the 2012 halving: the orange line reached a peak of 2.6 (corresponding to the bull market top)
Before the 2016 halving: the orange line reached a peak of 2.4 (corresponding to the bull market top)
Before the 2020 halving: the orange line reached a peak of 2.5 (corresponding to the bull market top)
Before the 2024 halving: the orange line reached a peak of 2.4 (corresponding to the bull market top)
┌─ 🐼 Indicator Details ─┐
Black line: Bitcoin price
Orange line: ratio of the daily mining output value (USD) to its 365-day average
Before the 2012 halving: the orange line reached a peak of 2.6 (corresponding to the bull market top)
Before the 2016 halving: the orange line reached a peak of 2.4 (corresponding to the bull market top)
Before the 2020 halving: the orange line reached a peak of 2.5 (corresponding to the bull market top)
Before the 2024 halving: the orange line reached a peak of 2.4 (corresponding to the bull market top)
┌─ 🐼 Indicator Details ─┐
Black line: Bitcoin price
Orange line: ratio of the daily mining output value (USD) to its 365-day average
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle series 81】
2012 Orange-Blue golden cross: after 41 days, to the bull market recovery peak
2015 Orange-Blue golden cross: after 44 days, to the bull market recovery peak
2019 Orange-Blue golden cross: after 44 days, to the bull market recovery peak
2023 Orange-Blue golden cross: after 22 days, to the bull market recovery secondary top
2026: just crossed today
┌── 🐼 Indicator details ──┐
Black line: Bitcoin price
Orange line: Bitcoin miner revenue 30-day moving average
Blue line: Bitcoin miner revenue 365-day moving average
2012 Orange-Blue golden cross: after 41 days, to the bull market recovery peak
2015 Orange-Blue golden cross: after 44 days, to the bull market recovery peak
2019 Orange-Blue golden cross: after 44 days, to the bull market recovery peak
2023 Orange-Blue golden cross: after 22 days, to the bull market recovery secondary top
2026: just crossed today
┌── 🐼 Indicator details ──┐
Black line: Bitcoin price
Orange line: Bitcoin miner revenue 30-day moving average
Blue line: Bitcoin miner revenue 365-day moving average
CryptoChan 熊猫
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【 $BTC four-year cycle series 80】
Before the 2012 halving: the orange line peaked at 2.3 (corresponding to the bull market top)
Before the 2016 halving: the orange line peaked at 2.1 (corresponding to the bull market top)
Before the 2020 halving: the orange line peaked at 2.3 (corresponding to the bull market top)
Before the 2024 halving: the orange line peaked at 2.3 (corresponding to the bull market top)
┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐
Black line: Bitcoin price
Orange line: Bitcoin MVRV (excluding >7-year unmoved BTC)
Before the 2012 halving: the orange line peaked at 2.3 (corresponding to the bull market top)
Before the 2016 halving: the orange line peaked at 2.1 (corresponding to the bull market top)
Before the 2020 halving: the orange line peaked at 2.3 (corresponding to the bull market top)
Before the 2024 halving: the orange line peaked at 2.3 (corresponding to the bull market top)
┌── 🐼 On-chain data details ──┐
Black line: Bitcoin price
Orange line: Bitcoin MVRV (excluding >7-year unmoved BTC)
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