CryptoChan
Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analysis，比特币链上行情分析 || 不收费，无投资理财建议 || X：@0xCryptoChan
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Let’s take a look at two pieces of data from the Bitcoin market value to realized market value ratio indicator (#Bitcoin: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) in different periods (the two pieces of data started from the day when Bitcoin production was halved in 2016/20 respectively).
At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
【Four-Year Cycle Series Update📊】Historically, before and after the final drop in each bear market of BTC, the black line often sequentially drops below the orange line, blue line, and green line.
Currently, the black line has dropped below the orange line, and it is still $312 away from dropping below the blue line.
Currently, the black line has dropped below the orange line, and it is still $312 away from dropping below the blue line.
CryptoChan
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (23)】
Historically, before the last drop in each bear market of BTC, the black line tends to successively cross below the orange line, blue line, and green line.
Currently, the black line has crossed below the orange line.
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The black line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 0-10 years.
The orange line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 6 months to 5 years.
The blue line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 6 months to 7 years.
The green line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 6 months to 10 years.
Historically, before the last drop in each bear market of BTC, the black line tends to successively cross below the orange line, blue line, and green line.
Currently, the black line has crossed below the orange line.
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The black line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 0-10 years.
The orange line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 6 months to 5 years.
The blue line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 6 months to 7 years.
The green line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 6 months to 10 years.
【Bitcoin Cycle Turning Point Deep Review and Outlook_20260410】📄
The research report on the current market logic highlights the following key points:
• Market Qualification: Bear Market Deep Water Zone 🌪
The current market is in a typical descending continuation. The on-chain short-term cost line is still above the real market average price. The current "volume-reducing rebound" has not formed a structural reversal due to a lack of subsequent liquidity support.
• Core Warning: Waiting for Ultimate Clearance 🚨
Historically, bear market bottoms usually accompany VDD indicator pulses (old coins surrender) and a dead cross in the profit and loss structure. Currently, these two major signals have not fully triggered, and one must be cautious of the potential impact of the "last drop" before dawn.
• Follow-up Strategy: High Liquidity Vigilance 🛡
We will continue to maintain high liquidity and patiently wait for the emergence of ultimate panic selling to complete the inter-cycle underlying chip replacement at the emotional freezing point.
For detailed indicator breakdown, see the X subscription exclusive article 👉https://x.com/0xCryptoChan/status/2042573498166710487?s=20
The research report on the current market logic highlights the following key points:
• Market Qualification: Bear Market Deep Water Zone 🌪
The current market is in a typical descending continuation. The on-chain short-term cost line is still above the real market average price. The current "volume-reducing rebound" has not formed a structural reversal due to a lack of subsequent liquidity support.
• Core Warning: Waiting for Ultimate Clearance 🚨
Historically, bear market bottoms usually accompany VDD indicator pulses (old coins surrender) and a dead cross in the profit and loss structure. Currently, these two major signals have not fully triggered, and one must be cautious of the potential impact of the "last drop" before dawn.
• Follow-up Strategy: High Liquidity Vigilance 🛡
We will continue to maintain high liquidity and patiently wait for the emergence of ultimate panic selling to complete the inter-cycle underlying chip replacement at the emotional freezing point.
For detailed indicator breakdown, see the X subscription exclusive article 👉https://x.com/0xCryptoChan/status/2042573498166710487?s=20
The rebound momentum of cryptocurrency prices is still being released
However, the enthusiasm for short-term entry is declining
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
BTC: The RHODL indicator is a macro indicator on the Bitcoin blockchain, essentially a dynamic ratio of the wealth share of short-term (holding <1 week) vs long-term (holding 1-2 years) holders——
The higher the value → The market is overheated
Short-term speculators (new money) dominate, with a large amount of wealth concentrated in coins that were recently purchased and quickly moved, while long-term HODLers are “distributing” chips to new entrants. This is a signal of the market peak, historically corresponding precisely to cycle highs (good selling opportunity)
The lower the value → The market is in the accumulation phase
Long-term holders dominate, with very low short-term speculative activity, and the market is in panic or recession. This is a signal of the bottom, suitable for building positions
The red line in the chart represents the period ⟨13-17 years⟩; the blue line represents the period ⟨17-21 years⟩; the black line represents the period ⟨21 years to present⟩. The three segments align the BTC mining halving day of each respective cycle.
However, the enthusiasm for short-term entry is declining
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
BTC: The RHODL indicator is a macro indicator on the Bitcoin blockchain, essentially a dynamic ratio of the wealth share of short-term (holding <1 week) vs long-term (holding 1-2 years) holders——
The higher the value → The market is overheated
Short-term speculators (new money) dominate, with a large amount of wealth concentrated in coins that were recently purchased and quickly moved, while long-term HODLers are “distributing” chips to new entrants. This is a signal of the market peak, historically corresponding precisely to cycle highs (good selling opportunity)
The lower the value → The market is in the accumulation phase
Long-term holders dominate, with very low short-term speculative activity, and the market is in panic or recession. This is a signal of the bottom, suitable for building positions
The red line in the chart represents the period ⟨13-17 years⟩; the blue line represents the period ⟨17-21 years⟩; the black line represents the period ⟨21 years to present⟩. The three segments align the BTC mining halving day of each respective cycle.
Still can carve it🐶
CryptoChan
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History does not simply repeat itself, but is it…100% replicated?🐶
【Four-Year Cycle Countdown⏳】The current index in the chart has fallen to 1.27
In 2014, the index dropped from 1.27 to 1, taking 68 days
In 2018, the index dropped from 1.27 to 1, taking 67 days
In 2022, the index dropped from 1.27 to 1, taking 88 days
Note: The index reaching 1 indicates a basic bottoming out.
In 2014, the index dropped from 1.27 to 1, taking 68 days
In 2018, the index dropped from 1.27 to 1, taking 67 days
In 2022, the index dropped from 1.27 to 1, taking 88 days
Note: The index reaching 1 indicates a basic bottoming out.
CryptoChan
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The current index in the chart has dropped to 1.45
In 2014, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 119 days
In 2018, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 147 days
In 2022, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 123 days
Note: An index of 1 generally indicates a bear bottom
The gray line above in the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding coins held for more than 10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of “average cost price of short-term BTC holders” to “average cost price of long-term BTC holders” (yellow line / magenta line)
The average cost price of short-term BTC holders is defined as investors or entities holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. This indicator reflects the cost basis of recent market entrants, who are often more sensitive to price fluctuations and more likely to sell positions during market volatility or downturns. It is often viewed as a barometer of short-term market sentiment and momentum: in a bull market, prices are usually above this average cost price; in a bear market, prices falling below this level may trigger additional selling pressure.
The average cost price of long-term BTC holders is defined as investors or entities holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This indicator excludes coins held for more than 10 years to focus on a more “active” group of long-term holders. The cost of these extremely long-held coins is very low and they rarely move, thus excluding them provides a more realistic LTH cost basis that reflects the average holding price of long-term investors who may actually participate in buying and selling during market cycles. This indicator is often regarded as a reference for market support levels: in a bear market, it may act as a potential price bottom.
The ratio of the two reflects the phases of the Bitcoin market cycle and the dynamics of participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Indicates that the average cost of short-term holders is higher than that of adjusted long-term holders. This usually occurs in bull markets, where recent entrants buy at higher prices, while long-term holders have a lower cost basis. This suggests optimistic market sentiment and strong inflow of new funds, but may also indicate speculative overheating or potential pullbacks.
Ratio < 1: Indicates that the average cost of short-term holders is lower than that of adjusted long-term holders. This is common in bear markets or market bottoms, where recent entrants buy at lower prices, while long-term holders have a higher cost basis. This often signals capitulation, suggesting that weak hands have been cleared out, and the market may be turning towards recovery or the start of a bull market.
In 2014, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 119 days
In 2018, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 147 days
In 2022, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 123 days
Note: An index of 1 generally indicates a bear bottom
The gray line above in the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding coins held for more than 10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of “average cost price of short-term BTC holders” to “average cost price of long-term BTC holders” (yellow line / magenta line)
The average cost price of short-term BTC holders is defined as investors or entities holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. This indicator reflects the cost basis of recent market entrants, who are often more sensitive to price fluctuations and more likely to sell positions during market volatility or downturns. It is often viewed as a barometer of short-term market sentiment and momentum: in a bull market, prices are usually above this average cost price; in a bear market, prices falling below this level may trigger additional selling pressure.
The average cost price of long-term BTC holders is defined as investors or entities holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This indicator excludes coins held for more than 10 years to focus on a more “active” group of long-term holders. The cost of these extremely long-held coins is very low and they rarely move, thus excluding them provides a more realistic LTH cost basis that reflects the average holding price of long-term investors who may actually participate in buying and selling during market cycles. This indicator is often regarded as a reference for market support levels: in a bear market, it may act as a potential price bottom.
The ratio of the two reflects the phases of the Bitcoin market cycle and the dynamics of participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Indicates that the average cost of short-term holders is higher than that of adjusted long-term holders. This usually occurs in bull markets, where recent entrants buy at higher prices, while long-term holders have a lower cost basis. This suggests optimistic market sentiment and strong inflow of new funds, but may also indicate speculative overheating or potential pullbacks.
Ratio < 1: Indicates that the average cost of short-term holders is lower than that of adjusted long-term holders. This is common in bear markets or market bottoms, where recent entrants buy at lower prices, while long-term holders have a higher cost basis. This often signals capitulation, suggesting that weak hands have been cleared out, and the market may be turning towards recovery or the start of a bull market.
15-Year Bear Bottom ($150), the proportion of active chips on-chain has dropped to 22.9%
18-Year Bear Bottom ($3100), the proportion of active chips on-chain has dropped to 23.2%
22-Year Secondary Bear Bottom ($17.6k), the proportion of active chips on-chain has dropped to 22.4%
Currently, the proportion of active chips on-chain has dropped to 19.6%
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicator at the bottom is the purchasing cost percentage of BTC active chips (those bought and held for less than 3 months) relative to the total purchasing cost of all chips.
18-Year Bear Bottom ($3100), the proportion of active chips on-chain has dropped to 23.2%
22-Year Secondary Bear Bottom ($17.6k), the proportion of active chips on-chain has dropped to 22.4%
Currently, the proportion of active chips on-chain has dropped to 19.6%
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicator at the bottom is the purchasing cost percentage of BTC active chips (those bought and held for less than 3 months) relative to the total purchasing cost of all chips.
【Four-Year Cycle Series Update📊】
1431 days from the bear bottom in 2015 to the bear bottom in 2018
1437 days from the bear bottom in 2018 to the bear bottom in 2022
1231 days since the bear bottom in 2022
1431 days from the bear bottom in 2015 to the bear bottom in 2018
1437 days from the bear bottom in 2018 to the bear bottom in 2022
1231 days since the bear bottom in 2022
CryptoChan
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (4)】
1431 days to the next bear bottom after the bear bottom in 2015
1437 days to the next bear bottom after the bear bottom in 2018
1060 days have passed since the bear bottom in 2022
1431 days to the next bear bottom after the bear bottom in 2015
1437 days to the next bear bottom after the bear bottom in 2018
1060 days have passed since the bear bottom in 2022
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (30)】
When the indicator at the bottom of the chart is above 1.5
It corresponds to the complete bear bottom building range in Bitcoin's history
The current value of this indicator is 1.24
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The black line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of 'Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Spending Price' to 'Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Spending Price'
Note: Spending Price refers to the average purchase price of Bitcoin sold by holders over a period of time (7 days in the chart)
When the indicator at the bottom of the chart is above 1.5
It corresponds to the complete bear bottom building range in Bitcoin's history
The current value of this indicator is 1.24
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The black line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of 'Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Spending Price' to 'Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Spending Price'
Note: Spending Price refers to the average purchase price of Bitcoin sold by holders over a period of time (7 days in the chart)
CryptoChan
·
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (29)】
In 2014, BTC underwater accumulated for 22 days to the bear bottom
In 2018, BTC underwater accumulated for 26 days to the bear bottom
In 2022, BTC underwater accumulated for 26 days to the next bear bottom ($17.6k)
As of now, BTC underwater has accumulated for 40 days
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The black line in the chart represents Bitcoin's market value; the blue line represents the market value of Bitcoin long-term holders, 365d-MA
Defining the black line below the blue line as BTC underwater
In 2014, BTC underwater accumulated for 22 days to the bear bottom
In 2018, BTC underwater accumulated for 26 days to the bear bottom
In 2022, BTC underwater accumulated for 26 days to the next bear bottom ($17.6k)
As of now, BTC underwater has accumulated for 40 days
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The black line in the chart represents Bitcoin's market value; the blue line represents the market value of Bitcoin long-term holders, 365d-MA
Defining the black line below the blue line as BTC underwater
【Four-Year Cycle Series Update📊】
The peak value of the indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of the indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of the indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of the indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of the indicator in January 2023 has been 1180 days ago.
Note: The peak values of the indicators shown at the bottom of the chart basically correspond to the end of the BTC bear market & the beginning of the bull market.
The peak value of the indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of the indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of the indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of the indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of the indicator in January 2023 has been 1180 days ago.
Note: The peak values of the indicators shown at the bottom of the chart basically correspond to the end of the BTC bear market & the beginning of the bull market.
CryptoChan
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (17)】
The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."
The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (29)】
In 2014, BTC underwater accumulated for 22 days to the bear bottom
In 2018, BTC underwater accumulated for 26 days to the bear bottom
In 2022, BTC underwater accumulated for 26 days to the next bear bottom ($17.6k)
As of now, BTC underwater has accumulated for 40 days
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The black line in the chart represents Bitcoin's market value; the blue line represents the market value of Bitcoin long-term holders, 365d-MA
Defining the black line below the blue line as BTC underwater
In 2014, BTC underwater accumulated for 22 days to the bear bottom
In 2018, BTC underwater accumulated for 26 days to the bear bottom
In 2022, BTC underwater accumulated for 26 days to the next bear bottom ($17.6k)
As of now, BTC underwater has accumulated for 40 days
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The black line in the chart represents Bitcoin's market value; the blue line represents the market value of Bitcoin long-term holders, 365d-MA
Defining the black line below the blue line as BTC underwater
CryptoChan
·
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (28)】
101 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2014
130 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2018
183 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2022
40 days have passed since the orange line crossed the purple line in 2026
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
In the chart, the black line represents the BTC price; the orange line represents the Bitcoin Balanced Price; the purple line represents the average cost of Bitcoin for long-term holders
Note: Balanced Price = Realized Price - Transferred Price
In simple terms, this indicator measures the "actual cost paid by the market (Realized) minus the value actually spent/transferred historically (Transferred)"; it essentially tries to identify the bottom area of Bitcoin's "fair valuation".
101 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2014
130 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2018
183 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2022
40 days have passed since the orange line crossed the purple line in 2026
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
In the chart, the black line represents the BTC price; the orange line represents the Bitcoin Balanced Price; the purple line represents the average cost of Bitcoin for long-term holders
Note: Balanced Price = Realized Price - Transferred Price
In simple terms, this indicator measures the "actual cost paid by the market (Realized) minus the value actually spent/transferred historically (Transferred)"; it essentially tries to identify the bottom area of Bitcoin's "fair valuation".
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (28)】
101 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2014
130 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2018
183 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2022
40 days have passed since the orange line crossed the purple line in 2026
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
In the chart, the black line represents the BTC price; the orange line represents the Bitcoin Balanced Price; the purple line represents the average cost of Bitcoin for long-term holders
Note: Balanced Price = Realized Price - Transferred Price
In simple terms, this indicator measures the "actual cost paid by the market (Realized) minus the value actually spent/transferred historically (Transferred)"; it essentially tries to identify the bottom area of Bitcoin's "fair valuation".
101 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2014
130 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2018
183 days to the bear bottom after the orange line crossed the purple line in 2022
40 days have passed since the orange line crossed the purple line in 2026
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
In the chart, the black line represents the BTC price; the orange line represents the Bitcoin Balanced Price; the purple line represents the average cost of Bitcoin for long-term holders
Note: Balanced Price = Realized Price - Transferred Price
In simple terms, this indicator measures the "actual cost paid by the market (Realized) minus the value actually spent/transferred historically (Transferred)"; it essentially tries to identify the bottom area of Bitcoin's "fair valuation".
CryptoChan
·
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (27)】
In 2014, BTC underwater accumulated 124 days to the bear bottom
In 2018, BTC underwater accumulated 166 days to the bear bottom
In 2022, BTC underwater accumulated 191 days to the bear bottom
As of now, BTC underwater has accumulated about 52 days
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line in the chart represents the price of Bitcoin
The green line in the chart represents the spent price of long-term Bitcoin holders, which is the average purchase cost of chips sold by long-term holders over a period of time (such as 7 days)
When the gray line is below the green line, it is defined as BTC underwater
In 2014, BTC underwater accumulated 124 days to the bear bottom
In 2018, BTC underwater accumulated 166 days to the bear bottom
In 2022, BTC underwater accumulated 191 days to the bear bottom
As of now, BTC underwater has accumulated about 52 days
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line in the chart represents the price of Bitcoin
The green line in the chart represents the spent price of long-term Bitcoin holders, which is the average purchase cost of chips sold by long-term holders over a period of time (such as 7 days)
When the gray line is below the green line, it is defined as BTC underwater
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (27)】
In 2014, BTC underwater accumulated 124 days to the bear bottom
In 2018, BTC underwater accumulated 166 days to the bear bottom
In 2022, BTC underwater accumulated 191 days to the bear bottom
As of now, BTC underwater has accumulated about 52 days
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line in the chart represents the price of Bitcoin
The green line in the chart represents the spent price of long-term Bitcoin holders, which is the average purchase cost of chips sold by long-term holders over a period of time (such as 7 days)
When the gray line is below the green line, it is defined as BTC underwater
In 2014, BTC underwater accumulated 124 days to the bear bottom
In 2018, BTC underwater accumulated 166 days to the bear bottom
In 2022, BTC underwater accumulated 191 days to the bear bottom
As of now, BTC underwater has accumulated about 52 days
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line in the chart represents the price of Bitcoin
The green line in the chart represents the spent price of long-term Bitcoin holders, which is the average purchase cost of chips sold by long-term holders over a period of time (such as 7 days)
When the gray line is below the green line, it is defined as BTC underwater
CryptoChan
·
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (26)】Currently, this indicator has risen to 0.65
In 2014, this indicator rose to 0.65, 91 days later the black line crossed below the red line
In 2018, this indicator rose to 0.65, 94 days later the black line crossed below the red line
In 2022, this indicator rose to 0.65, 98 days later the black line crossed below the red line
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the black line represents the average purchase cost of Bitcoin holders (holding for about <6 months); the red line represents the average purchase cost of holders for 6 months to 10 years
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of the black line to the red line
In 2014, this indicator rose to 0.65, 91 days later the black line crossed below the red line
In 2018, this indicator rose to 0.65, 94 days later the black line crossed below the red line
In 2022, this indicator rose to 0.65, 98 days later the black line crossed below the red line
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the black line represents the average purchase cost of Bitcoin holders (holding for about <6 months); the red line represents the average purchase cost of holders for 6 months to 10 years
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of the black line to the red line
【Four-Year Cycle Series Update 📊】In each round of bear markets in history, before the final drop of BTC, the black line has sequentially crossed below the orange line, blue line, and green line.
Currently, the black line has crossed below the orange line, and it is still $1,542 away from crossing below the blue line.
Currently, the black line has crossed below the orange line, and it is still $1,542 away from crossing below the blue line.
CryptoChan
·
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (23)】
Historically, before the last drop in each bear market of BTC, the black line tends to successively cross below the orange line, blue line, and green line.
Currently, the black line has crossed below the orange line.
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The black line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 0-10 years.
The orange line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 6 months to 5 years.
The blue line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 6 months to 7 years.
The green line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 6 months to 10 years.
Historically, before the last drop in each bear market of BTC, the black line tends to successively cross below the orange line, blue line, and green line.
Currently, the black line has crossed below the orange line.
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The black line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 0-10 years.
The orange line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 6 months to 5 years.
The blue line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 6 months to 7 years.
The green line represents the average purchase cost of coins for on-chain investors holding for 6 months to 10 years.
The end of the bear market consolidation zone is often a heart-wrenching "sacrifice"
The ultimate panic selling in the market is essentially the complete collapse of the last psychological defense line for the bulls. That seemingly devastating "final drop" is actually a complete clearing and restructuring of chips from "old hands" to "new hands." The VDD Multiple on the BTC chain is a precise "microscope" capturing this brutal process.
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple is an advanced indicator evolved from "Coin Days Destroyed."
• Logical Core: It measures the heat of movement of "old coins." When long-term holders (LTH) choose to relinquish their chips due to extreme panic, the long-dormant "coin days" will be largely destroyed.
• Counterintuitive Bear Bottom Phenomenon: In the consolidation zone at the end of a bear market, even though the coin price is experiencing a despairing "final drop," the VDD Multiple often shows a violent surge.
• The Truth Behind: This wave of "upward violent surge" in the indicator corresponds to the panic-driven turnover of the "ancient chips" buried deep underground. When even the most steadfast holders begin to "cut losses" or face forced liquidation, the market's floating chips are truly cleaned out.
It's darkest before dawn, and this final drop is the last barrier before dawn. The pulse-like rise of the VDD Multiple is often the ultimate signal that the market has bottomed out and that the chips have completed an epochal handover.
The ultimate panic selling in the market is essentially the complete collapse of the last psychological defense line for the bulls. That seemingly devastating "final drop" is actually a complete clearing and restructuring of chips from "old hands" to "new hands." The VDD Multiple on the BTC chain is a precise "microscope" capturing this brutal process.
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple is an advanced indicator evolved from "Coin Days Destroyed."
• Logical Core: It measures the heat of movement of "old coins." When long-term holders (LTH) choose to relinquish their chips due to extreme panic, the long-dormant "coin days" will be largely destroyed.
• Counterintuitive Bear Bottom Phenomenon: In the consolidation zone at the end of a bear market, even though the coin price is experiencing a despairing "final drop," the VDD Multiple often shows a violent surge.
• The Truth Behind: This wave of "upward violent surge" in the indicator corresponds to the panic-driven turnover of the "ancient chips" buried deep underground. When even the most steadfast holders begin to "cut losses" or face forced liquidation, the market's floating chips are truly cleaned out.
It's darkest before dawn, and this final drop is the last barrier before dawn. The pulse-like rise of the VDD Multiple is often the ultimate signal that the market has bottomed out and that the chips have completed an epochal handover.
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (26)】Currently, this indicator has risen to 0.65
In 2014, this indicator rose to 0.65, 91 days later the black line crossed below the red line
In 2018, this indicator rose to 0.65, 94 days later the black line crossed below the red line
In 2022, this indicator rose to 0.65, 98 days later the black line crossed below the red line
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the black line represents the average purchase cost of Bitcoin holders (holding for about <6 months); the red line represents the average purchase cost of holders for 6 months to 10 years
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of the black line to the red line
In 2014, this indicator rose to 0.65, 91 days later the black line crossed below the red line
In 2018, this indicator rose to 0.65, 94 days later the black line crossed below the red line
In 2022, this indicator rose to 0.65, 98 days later the black line crossed below the red line
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the black line represents the average purchase cost of Bitcoin holders (holding for about <6 months); the red line represents the average purchase cost of holders for 6 months to 10 years
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of the black line to the red line
CryptoChan
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (25)】
In January 2015, this indicator fell to 0.75, 7 days later it was the bear bottom
In December 2018, this indicator fell to 0.75, 9 days prior it was the bear bottom
In September 2022, this indicator fell to 0.75, 48 days later it was the bear bottom
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the red line represents the average purchase cost of Bitcoin for short-term holders (Short-Term Holder Realized Price); the blue line represents the true market average purchase cost of Bitcoin (True Market Mean Price)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of the red line to the blue line (>>0.75 is green; <<0.75 is red)
The average purchase cost of Bitcoin for short-term holders reflects the average purchase cost of recent market entrants (holding < 155 days)
The true market average purchase cost of Bitcoin is calculated as "investor market value" (excluding Bitcoin mined but not traded in the secondary market) divided by "time-weighted active supply" (excluding long-term dormant and lost coins). It reflects the true average purchase cost of active investors in the market (excluding newly minted coins by miners, lost coins, and long-term inactive positions).
In January 2015, this indicator fell to 0.75, 7 days later it was the bear bottom
In December 2018, this indicator fell to 0.75, 9 days prior it was the bear bottom
In September 2022, this indicator fell to 0.75, 48 days later it was the bear bottom
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the red line represents the average purchase cost of Bitcoin for short-term holders (Short-Term Holder Realized Price); the blue line represents the true market average purchase cost of Bitcoin (True Market Mean Price)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of the red line to the blue line (>>0.75 is green; <<0.75 is red)
The average purchase cost of Bitcoin for short-term holders reflects the average purchase cost of recent market entrants (holding < 155 days)
The true market average purchase cost of Bitcoin is calculated as "investor market value" (excluding Bitcoin mined but not traded in the secondary market) divided by "time-weighted active supply" (excluding long-term dormant and lost coins). It reflects the true average purchase cost of active investors in the market (excluding newly minted coins by miners, lost coins, and long-term inactive positions).
CYCLES.
CryptoChan
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522 days after the 16-year BTC mining output was halved, the Bitcoin RHODL indicator reached the peak of the bull market (December 14, 2017, the coin price was $16.7k, non-K-line bull top);
533 days after the 20-year BTC mining output was halved, the Bitcoin RHODL indicator reached the peak of the bull market (October 26, 2021, the coin price was $62.7k, non-K-line bull top);
Currently, 114 days have passed since the 24-year BTC mining output was halved.
The indicator in the figure is Bitcoin RHODL (Realized HODL Ratio), which is the ratio of the number of BTC on the chain that has not moved for less than 1 week to the number of BTC that has not moved for 1-2 years (the number of BTC in different age groups needs to be weighted according to the total market value of the purchase cost of all BTC in their age groups).
The red line is the 13-17 years period of the indicator; the blue line is the 17-21 years period of the indicator; and the black line is the 21 years to date period of the indicator. The three lines align the halving days of BTC mining output in their respective cycles.
533 days after the 20-year BTC mining output was halved, the Bitcoin RHODL indicator reached the peak of the bull market (October 26, 2021, the coin price was $62.7k, non-K-line bull top);
Currently, 114 days have passed since the 24-year BTC mining output was halved.
The indicator in the figure is Bitcoin RHODL (Realized HODL Ratio), which is the ratio of the number of BTC on the chain that has not moved for less than 1 week to the number of BTC that has not moved for 1-2 years (the number of BTC in different age groups needs to be weighted according to the total market value of the purchase cost of all BTC in their age groups).
The red line is the 13-17 years period of the indicator; the blue line is the 17-21 years period of the indicator; and the black line is the 21 years to date period of the indicator. The three lines align the halving days of BTC mining output in their respective cycles.
【Four-Year Cycle Series Update📊】The current index in the chart has dropped to 1.31
In 2014, after the index dropped to 1.31, it took 55 days to reach the bear bottom ($0.15k)
In 2018, after the index dropped to 1.31, it took 25 days to reach the bear bottom ($3.1k)
In 2022, after the index dropped to 1.31, it took 3 days to reach the secondary bear bottom ($17.6k)
In 2014, after the index dropped to 1.31, it took 55 days to reach the bear bottom ($0.15k)
In 2018, after the index dropped to 1.31, it took 25 days to reach the bear bottom ($3.1k)
In 2022, after the index dropped to 1.31, it took 3 days to reach the secondary bear bottom ($17.6k)
CryptoChan
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (18)】The current indicator in the chart has dropped to 1.42
In 2014, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 76 days, it reached the bear bottom ($0.15k)
In 2018, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 82 days, it reached the bear bottom ($3.1k)
In 2022, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 26 days, it reached the secondary bear bottom ($17.6k)
The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding holdings for more than 10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of "Average Cost Price of Short-Term BTC Holders" to "Average Cost Price of Long-Term BTC Holders (excluding >10y holdings)" (i.e., yellow line / magenta line)
The definition of the average cost price of short-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Meaning: Reflects the cost basis of recent buyers, who are sensitive to price fluctuations and are likely to sell during downturns. It is often used as a short-term market sentiment indicator — prices above this average in a bull market, and falling below it in a bear market may exacerbate selling
The definition of the average cost price of long-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, but excluding holdings for more than 10 years (these may be lost or never moved, like Satoshi's coins). Meaning: Focuses on "active" long-term holders, providing a more realistic cost basis. It is often used as a reference for market support levels — it may become a price bottom in a bear market
The ratio of the two (short-term average / long-term average) means: Reflects the market cycle stage and participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Short-term buyer cost is high (new funds entering at high prices), sentiment is optimistic but may be overheated
Ratio < 1: Bear market or bottom signal, short-term buyer cost is low (entering at low prices), weak hands are cleared out, and the market may recover
Overall trend: Ratio rising = bull market continuation; falling = bear market or distribution phase. Excluding holdings for more than 10 years makes the ratio more accurately capture cycle turns; historically, < 1 has often been a long-term buying opportunity.
In 2014, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 76 days, it reached the bear bottom ($0.15k)
In 2018, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 82 days, it reached the bear bottom ($3.1k)
In 2022, the indicator dropped to 1.42, and after 26 days, it reached the secondary bear bottom ($17.6k)
The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding holdings for more than 10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of "Average Cost Price of Short-Term BTC Holders" to "Average Cost Price of Long-Term BTC Holders (excluding >10y holdings)" (i.e., yellow line / magenta line)
The definition of the average cost price of short-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Meaning: Reflects the cost basis of recent buyers, who are sensitive to price fluctuations and are likely to sell during downturns. It is often used as a short-term market sentiment indicator — prices above this average in a bull market, and falling below it in a bear market may exacerbate selling
The definition of the average cost price of long-term BTC holders: the average cost of investors holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, but excluding holdings for more than 10 years (these may be lost or never moved, like Satoshi's coins). Meaning: Focuses on "active" long-term holders, providing a more realistic cost basis. It is often used as a reference for market support levels — it may become a price bottom in a bear market
The ratio of the two (short-term average / long-term average) means: Reflects the market cycle stage and participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Short-term buyer cost is high (new funds entering at high prices), sentiment is optimistic but may be overheated
Ratio < 1: Bear market or bottom signal, short-term buyer cost is low (entering at low prices), weak hands are cleared out, and the market may recover
Overall trend: Ratio rising = bull market continuation; falling = bear market or distribution phase. Excluding holdings for more than 10 years makes the ratio more accurately capture cycle turns; historically, < 1 has often been a long-term buying opportunity.
【Four-Year Cycle Series Update📊】The current indicator in the chart has dropped to 1.31
In 2014, the indicator went from 1.31 to 1, taking 85 days
In 2018, the indicator went from 1.31 to 1, taking 72 days
In 2022, the indicator went from 1.31 to 1, taking 92 days
In 2014, the indicator went from 1.31 to 1, taking 85 days
In 2018, the indicator went from 1.31 to 1, taking 72 days
In 2022, the indicator went from 1.31 to 1, taking 92 days
CryptoChan
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The current index in the chart has dropped to 1.45
In 2014, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 119 days
In 2018, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 147 days
In 2022, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 123 days
Note: An index of 1 generally indicates a bear bottom
The gray line above in the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding coins held for more than 10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of “average cost price of short-term BTC holders” to “average cost price of long-term BTC holders” (yellow line / magenta line)
The average cost price of short-term BTC holders is defined as investors or entities holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. This indicator reflects the cost basis of recent market entrants, who are often more sensitive to price fluctuations and more likely to sell positions during market volatility or downturns. It is often viewed as a barometer of short-term market sentiment and momentum: in a bull market, prices are usually above this average cost price; in a bear market, prices falling below this level may trigger additional selling pressure.
The average cost price of long-term BTC holders is defined as investors or entities holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This indicator excludes coins held for more than 10 years to focus on a more “active” group of long-term holders. The cost of these extremely long-held coins is very low and they rarely move, thus excluding them provides a more realistic LTH cost basis that reflects the average holding price of long-term investors who may actually participate in buying and selling during market cycles. This indicator is often regarded as a reference for market support levels: in a bear market, it may act as a potential price bottom.
The ratio of the two reflects the phases of the Bitcoin market cycle and the dynamics of participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Indicates that the average cost of short-term holders is higher than that of adjusted long-term holders. This usually occurs in bull markets, where recent entrants buy at higher prices, while long-term holders have a lower cost basis. This suggests optimistic market sentiment and strong inflow of new funds, but may also indicate speculative overheating or potential pullbacks.
Ratio < 1: Indicates that the average cost of short-term holders is lower than that of adjusted long-term holders. This is common in bear markets or market bottoms, where recent entrants buy at lower prices, while long-term holders have a higher cost basis. This often signals capitulation, suggesting that weak hands have been cleared out, and the market may be turning towards recovery or the start of a bull market.
In 2014, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 119 days
In 2018, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 147 days
In 2022, this index dropped from 1.45 to 1, taking 123 days
Note: An index of 1 generally indicates a bear bottom
The gray line above in the chart represents the BTC price; the yellow line represents the average cost price of short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price of long-term BTC holders (excluding coins held for more than 10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of “average cost price of short-term BTC holders” to “average cost price of long-term BTC holders” (yellow line / magenta line)
The average cost price of short-term BTC holders is defined as investors or entities holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. This indicator reflects the cost basis of recent market entrants, who are often more sensitive to price fluctuations and more likely to sell positions during market volatility or downturns. It is often viewed as a barometer of short-term market sentiment and momentum: in a bull market, prices are usually above this average cost price; in a bear market, prices falling below this level may trigger additional selling pressure.
The average cost price of long-term BTC holders is defined as investors or entities holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days. This indicator excludes coins held for more than 10 years to focus on a more “active” group of long-term holders. The cost of these extremely long-held coins is very low and they rarely move, thus excluding them provides a more realistic LTH cost basis that reflects the average holding price of long-term investors who may actually participate in buying and selling during market cycles. This indicator is often regarded as a reference for market support levels: in a bear market, it may act as a potential price bottom.
The ratio of the two reflects the phases of the Bitcoin market cycle and the dynamics of participant behavior:
Ratio > 1: Indicates that the average cost of short-term holders is higher than that of adjusted long-term holders. This usually occurs in bull markets, where recent entrants buy at higher prices, while long-term holders have a lower cost basis. This suggests optimistic market sentiment and strong inflow of new funds, but may also indicate speculative overheating or potential pullbacks.
Ratio < 1: Indicates that the average cost of short-term holders is lower than that of adjusted long-term holders. This is common in bear markets or market bottoms, where recent entrants buy at lower prices, while long-term holders have a higher cost basis. This often signals capitulation, suggesting that weak hands have been cleared out, and the market may be turning towards recovery or the start of a bull market.
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (25)】
In January 2015, this indicator fell to 0.75, 7 days later it was the bear bottom
In December 2018, this indicator fell to 0.75, 9 days prior it was the bear bottom
In September 2022, this indicator fell to 0.75, 48 days later it was the bear bottom
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the red line represents the average purchase cost of Bitcoin for short-term holders (Short-Term Holder Realized Price); the blue line represents the true market average purchase cost of Bitcoin (True Market Mean Price)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of the red line to the blue line (>>0.75 is green; <<0.75 is red)
The average purchase cost of Bitcoin for short-term holders reflects the average purchase cost of recent market entrants (holding < 155 days)
The true market average purchase cost of Bitcoin is calculated as "investor market value" (excluding Bitcoin mined but not traded in the secondary market) divided by "time-weighted active supply" (excluding long-term dormant and lost coins). It reflects the true average purchase cost of active investors in the market (excluding newly minted coins by miners, lost coins, and long-term inactive positions).
In January 2015, this indicator fell to 0.75, 7 days later it was the bear bottom
In December 2018, this indicator fell to 0.75, 9 days prior it was the bear bottom
In September 2022, this indicator fell to 0.75, 48 days later it was the bear bottom
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line at the top of the chart represents the BTC price; the red line represents the average purchase cost of Bitcoin for short-term holders (Short-Term Holder Realized Price); the blue line represents the true market average purchase cost of Bitcoin (True Market Mean Price)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart is the ratio of the red line to the blue line (>>0.75 is green; <<0.75 is red)
The average purchase cost of Bitcoin for short-term holders reflects the average purchase cost of recent market entrants (holding < 155 days)
The true market average purchase cost of Bitcoin is calculated as "investor market value" (excluding Bitcoin mined but not traded in the secondary market) divided by "time-weighted active supply" (excluding long-term dormant and lost coins). It reflects the true average purchase cost of active investors in the market (excluding newly minted coins by miners, lost coins, and long-term inactive positions).
CryptoChan
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (24)】
In 2014, the red line crossed below the blue line, 182 days later reached the bear bottom
In 2018, the red line crossed below the blue line, 128 days later reached the bear bottom
In 2022, the red line crossed below the blue line, 160 days later reached the bear bottom
Currently, there are still 5899 dollars left to reach the red line crossing below the blue line
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line in the chart represents BTC price; the red line represents the average purchase cost of Bitcoin for short-term holders (Short-Term Holder Realized Price); the blue line represents the true market average purchase cost of Bitcoin (True Market Mean Price)
The average purchase cost for short-term holders of Bitcoin is calculated based on short-term holders (usually defined as those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, with coins recently moved on-chain) and reflects the average purchase cost of chips held by recent market entrants (commonly referred to as "weak hands" or active traders)
The true market average purchase cost of Bitcoin, also known as the "active investor price," is not simply the average realized price of all coins, but specifically targets coins that are actively traded in the secondary market: the calculation formula is Investor Cap (the market value of investors, excluding Bitcoin mined but not traded in the secondary market) divided by Active Supply (time-weighted active supply, excluding long-term dormant and lost coins). It reflects the true average purchase cost of truly active investors in the market (excluding newly minted coins by miners, lost coins, and long-term inactive holdings), and is considered the model closest to the "true market mean" of aggregated purchase costs
The average purchase cost for short-term holders focuses on the costs of the "short-term, sensitive group," suitable for short-term sentiment and support/resistance judgments; the true market average purchase cost focuses on the true mean of "all market active investors," suitable for medium to long-term trends and bull-bear boundary judgments
Using both in combination allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the cost structure of different Bitcoin holder groups and the short and long-term trends in the market
In 2014, the red line crossed below the blue line, 182 days later reached the bear bottom
In 2018, the red line crossed below the blue line, 128 days later reached the bear bottom
In 2022, the red line crossed below the blue line, 160 days later reached the bear bottom
Currently, there are still 5899 dollars left to reach the red line crossing below the blue line
┌── 📑 𝗗𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲 | Indicator Details ──┐
The gray line in the chart represents BTC price; the red line represents the average purchase cost of Bitcoin for short-term holders (Short-Term Holder Realized Price); the blue line represents the true market average purchase cost of Bitcoin (True Market Mean Price)
The average purchase cost for short-term holders of Bitcoin is calculated based on short-term holders (usually defined as those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, with coins recently moved on-chain) and reflects the average purchase cost of chips held by recent market entrants (commonly referred to as "weak hands" or active traders)
The true market average purchase cost of Bitcoin, also known as the "active investor price," is not simply the average realized price of all coins, but specifically targets coins that are actively traded in the secondary market: the calculation formula is Investor Cap (the market value of investors, excluding Bitcoin mined but not traded in the secondary market) divided by Active Supply (time-weighted active supply, excluding long-term dormant and lost coins). It reflects the true average purchase cost of truly active investors in the market (excluding newly minted coins by miners, lost coins, and long-term inactive holdings), and is considered the model closest to the "true market mean" of aggregated purchase costs
The average purchase cost for short-term holders focuses on the costs of the "short-term, sensitive group," suitable for short-term sentiment and support/resistance judgments; the true market average purchase cost focuses on the true mean of "all market active investors," suitable for medium to long-term trends and bull-bear boundary judgments
Using both in combination allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the cost structure of different Bitcoin holder groups and the short and long-term trends in the market
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