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🔴 1. Situation Iran: no agreement = rising tension
The USA–Iran negotiations failed after 21 hours of discussions
• The main sticking point:
👉 nuclear + control of the Strait of Hormuz
• Result:
• enormous geopolitical uncertainty
• risk of conflict resumption or military pressure
• Markets have already reacted:
• Gulf stock markets down
• oil and inflation very sensitive to the situation
👉 And above all: experts say that the positions are too opposed for a quick agreement
The USA–Iran negotiations failed after 21 hours of discussions
• The main sticking point:
👉 nuclear + control of the Strait of Hormuz
• Result:
• enormous geopolitical uncertainty
• risk of conflict resumption or military pressure
• Markets have already reacted:
• Gulf stock markets down
• oil and inflation very sensitive to the situation
👉 And above all: experts say that the positions are too opposed for a quick agreement
Next week: why it could be violent 📉📈
The tweet you saw is not entirely false: there are many important macro events.
🇺🇸 On the Fed & economy side:
• inflation data (PPI)
• unemployment
• Fed speech
• economic reports (like Beige Book)
👉 So:
➡️ many catalysts at the same time
⸻
⚠️ What the market really fears
The issue is not a single event, but the combination:
🔥 Volatile scenario (most likely)
• non-agreement with Iran ➜ geopolitical tension
• unsteady oil ➜ inflation impact
• uncertain Fed ➜ nervous markets
👉 Result:
➡️ big movements (up AND down)
⸻
🧨 Worse scenario (less likely but possible)
• military escalation / blockage of the Strait of Hormuz
• oil that explodes
• panic in the markets
⸻
🟢 Positive scenario
• resumption of discussions with Iran
• economic data reassuring
• market that rebounds
⸻
🧠 Simple conclusion
👉 Yes, you saw it right:
the next week could be very volatile
But beware:
• it is not “necessarily a crash”
• it is mainly a week of high uncertainty + important news
The tweet you saw is not entirely false: there are many important macro events.
🇺🇸 On the Fed & economy side:
• inflation data (PPI)
• unemployment
• Fed speech
• economic reports (like Beige Book)
👉 So:
➡️ many catalysts at the same time
⸻
⚠️ What the market really fears
The issue is not a single event, but the combination:
🔥 Volatile scenario (most likely)
• non-agreement with Iran ➜ geopolitical tension
• unsteady oil ➜ inflation impact
• uncertain Fed ➜ nervous markets
👉 Result:
➡️ big movements (up AND down)
⸻
🧨 Worse scenario (less likely but possible)
• military escalation / blockage of the Strait of Hormuz
• oil that explodes
• panic in the markets
⸻
🟢 Positive scenario
• resumption of discussions with Iran
• economic data reassuring
• market that rebounds
⸻
🧠 Simple conclusion
👉 Yes, you saw it right:
the next week could be very volatile
But beware:
• it is not “necessarily a crash”
• it is mainly a week of high uncertainty + important news
🤔📉🚀
🤔📈🚀
5 day(s) left
$BTC rebond 🤔🤔🤔
80000$ - 53000 - 41000 📈185K
22%
74000- 63000 - 41000 🚀📈185k
78%
18 votes • Voting closed
$TAO imminent rise for $280-300 after preparing for another drop. It is necessary to set temporary stop losses and follow the market and the war in Iran as there is a possibility of canceling the ceasefire.
$TAO 📉 🔎 What happened with Covenant AI
• The founder of Covenant AI, Sam Dare, has left the project related to Bittensor (TAO).
• He accuses the co-founder of Bittensor (Jacob Steeves) of controlling the network solo, while it is supposed to be “decentralized”.
• Basically, he says: “decentralization is theater”.
👉 So it’s a big internal conflict + loss of trust.
⸻
📉 Why the price collapsed
• Covenant AI was a key player in the project (they managed several important parts of the network).
• From the announcement:
• the TAO token dropped ~25% in a few hours
• Investors panicked → massive sell-off → drop.
👉 Classic in crypto:
• bad news = quick sell-off
• emotional market
⸻
🤔 Manipulation or not?
👉 Not necessarily organized manipulation, but:
✔️ What is real:
• real conflict between founders
• serious accusations (centralization, control)
• direct impact on the project
⚠️ What can amplify:
• traders taking advantage of the panic
• wales (big holders) selling at the right time
• rumors + snowball effect
⸻
📊 Comparison with Bitcoin
• Bitcoin also rises and falls sharply
• BUT:
• Bitcoin is more stable (huge market)
• TAO / small projects = ultra volatile + sensitive to drama
👉 So yes, the behavior (it rises/falls quickly) is similar
👉 but here the cause is mainly an internal issue with the project
⸻
🧠 Simple conclusion
• ❌ This is not necessarily a pure scam
• ✔️ It’s mainly:
“fragile project + internal conflict + speculative market”
👉 In crypto, trust = price
So as soon as it breaks → it drops sharply.
• The founder of Covenant AI, Sam Dare, has left the project related to Bittensor (TAO).
• He accuses the co-founder of Bittensor (Jacob Steeves) of controlling the network solo, while it is supposed to be “decentralized”.
• Basically, he says: “decentralization is theater”.
👉 So it’s a big internal conflict + loss of trust.
⸻
📉 Why the price collapsed
• Covenant AI was a key player in the project (they managed several important parts of the network).
• From the announcement:
• the TAO token dropped ~25% in a few hours
• Investors panicked → massive sell-off → drop.
👉 Classic in crypto:
• bad news = quick sell-off
• emotional market
⸻
🤔 Manipulation or not?
👉 Not necessarily organized manipulation, but:
✔️ What is real:
• real conflict between founders
• serious accusations (centralization, control)
• direct impact on the project
⚠️ What can amplify:
• traders taking advantage of the panic
• wales (big holders) selling at the right time
• rumors + snowball effect
⸻
📊 Comparison with Bitcoin
• Bitcoin also rises and falls sharply
• BUT:
• Bitcoin is more stable (huge market)
• TAO / small projects = ultra volatile + sensitive to drama
👉 So yes, the behavior (it rises/falls quickly) is similar
👉 but here the cause is mainly an internal issue with the project
⸻
🧠 Simple conclusion
• ❌ This is not necessarily a pure scam
• ✔️ It’s mainly:
“fragile project + internal conflict + speculative market”
👉 In crypto, trust = price
So as soon as it breaks → it drops sharply.
Tao 📉340- 280
$TAO Incident on the sub-networks Covenant AI
Context: Sentiment on social media turned significantly bearish on the evening of April 9, with several messages (au_xbt, RadoTsc) reporting issues on key sub-networks of Covenant AI, mentioning a "flash crash" or a possible hack. This cryptocurrency-specific fear triggered a significant sell-off, confirmed by a 73.56% increase in trading volume.
$TAO Incident on the sub-networks Covenant AI
Context: Sentiment on social media turned significantly bearish on the evening of April 9, with several messages (au_xbt, RadoTsc) reporting issues on key sub-networks of Covenant AI, mentioning a "flash crash" or a possible hack. This cryptocurrency-specific fear triggered a significant sell-off, confirmed by a 73.56% increase in trading volume.
⸻
📊 Market Overview
• Total Market Capitalization: 2.09 T$
→ Up by +1.22% → Slightly bullish market
• The chart shows:
• A drop earlier in the day 📉
• Then a sharp rebound at the end of the session 📈
👉 Typical of a resurgence of buyers (buy the dip)
⸻
🧠 Market Sentiment
• Fear & Greed Index: 47 (Neutral)
→ Neither fear nor euphoria
→ Market in a phase of waiting / consolidation
👉 Important:
• < 30 = fear (often opportunities)
• 70 = euphoria (risk of correction)
• 47 = balance → no strong signal
⸻
🪙 Key Indices
• CMC20: 148.58 $ (+1.46%)
→ The 20 largest cryptos are slightly up
• Altcoin Index: 34/100
→ Altcoins remain weak
→ The market is still dominated by large caps (like Bitcoin and Ethereum)
⸻
🔥 Notable Info
• News: the Ethereum Foundation reportedly sold ~8M$
👉 Often interpreted as:
• Short-term selling pressure
• But not necessarily bearish long-term
⸻
🧭 Overall Reading
👉 We are in a market:
• In slight rebound
• But still uncertain
• With lagging altcoins
💡 Concrete Translation:
• Big players are slowly accumulating
• Not yet a true altseason
• Fragile but positive momentum
⸻
⚡ If you trade / invest
• Short term: volatile market but recovering
• Medium term: structure still neutral
• Altcoins: caution, not yet confirmed
📊 Market Overview
• Total Market Capitalization: 2.09 T$
→ Up by +1.22% → Slightly bullish market
• The chart shows:
• A drop earlier in the day 📉
• Then a sharp rebound at the end of the session 📈
👉 Typical of a resurgence of buyers (buy the dip)
⸻
🧠 Market Sentiment
• Fear & Greed Index: 47 (Neutral)
→ Neither fear nor euphoria
→ Market in a phase of waiting / consolidation
👉 Important:
• < 30 = fear (often opportunities)
• 70 = euphoria (risk of correction)
• 47 = balance → no strong signal
⸻
🪙 Key Indices
• CMC20: 148.58 $ (+1.46%)
→ The 20 largest cryptos are slightly up
• Altcoin Index: 34/100
→ Altcoins remain weak
→ The market is still dominated by large caps (like Bitcoin and Ethereum)
⸻
🔥 Notable Info
• News: the Ethereum Foundation reportedly sold ~8M$
👉 Often interpreted as:
• Short-term selling pressure
• But not necessarily bearish long-term
⸻
🧭 Overall Reading
👉 We are in a market:
• In slight rebound
• But still uncertain
• With lagging altcoins
💡 Concrete Translation:
• Big players are slowly accumulating
• Not yet a true altseason
• Fragile but positive momentum
⸻
⚡ If you trade / invest
• Short term: volatile market but recovering
• Medium term: structure still neutral
• Altcoins: caution, not yet confirmed
🔥 What will happen this week (including Friday)
• Friday → publication of the CPI (US inflation) = MAJOR event
• Other data (PCE, Fed, etc.) was released just before
➡️ These announcements can move Bitcoin by ±2% to 6% quickly 
⸻
📊 The 2 possible scenarios
🟢 Bullish scenario (📈)
If :
• Inflation lower than expected
• Or a more “cool” speech from the Fed
👉 Then :
• The market breathes
• Bitcoin can rise towards 70k+
• Cryptos follow
💡 Already seen recently: BTC touched ~70 000$ with macro optimism 
⸻
🔴 Bearish scenario (📉)
If :
• Inflation too high
• Or strict Fed (no rate cut)
👉 Then :
• Risk-off market (people sell)
• BTC can drop back towards 66k or even less
• Altcoins fall even harder
💡 Recent example: -3% in one day with geopolitical stress 
⸻
⚠️ Current context (important)
• Very fragile market (extreme fear) 
• Strong correlation with the stock market
• Depends a lot on:
• war / geopolitics
• rates of interest
• liquidity
👉 Thus the market can change direction in a few hours
⸻
🎯 Clear conclusion
➡️ Friday = key moment
• Good surprise → 📈 pump
• Bad surprise → 📉 dump
👉 But in any case :
Expect big movements (volatility), not a calm market.
#cpi #Inflation
• Friday → publication of the CPI (US inflation) = MAJOR event
• Other data (PCE, Fed, etc.) was released just before
➡️ These announcements can move Bitcoin by ±2% to 6% quickly 
⸻
📊 The 2 possible scenarios
🟢 Bullish scenario (📈)
If :
• Inflation lower than expected
• Or a more “cool” speech from the Fed
👉 Then :
• The market breathes
• Bitcoin can rise towards 70k+
• Cryptos follow
💡 Already seen recently: BTC touched ~70 000$ with macro optimism 
⸻
🔴 Bearish scenario (📉)
If :
• Inflation too high
• Or strict Fed (no rate cut)
👉 Then :
• Risk-off market (people sell)
• BTC can drop back towards 66k or even less
• Altcoins fall even harder
💡 Recent example: -3% in one day with geopolitical stress 
⸻
⚠️ Current context (important)
• Very fragile market (extreme fear) 
• Strong correlation with the stock market
• Depends a lot on:
• war / geopolitics
• rates of interest
• liquidity
👉 Thus the market can change direction in a few hours
⸻
🎯 Clear conclusion
➡️ Friday = key moment
• Good surprise → 📈 pump
• Bad surprise → 📉 dump
👉 But in any case :
Expect big movements (volatility), not a calm market.
#cpi #Inflation
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