The Crypto Edge

Arthur Hayes Calls $125K Bitcoin by Year-End as War Spending Floods Markets With Cash Key Takeaways: Arthur Hayes of Maelstrom targets bitcoin at $125,000 by year-end, citing wartime spending and rising bank lending. The Enhanced Supplemental Leverage Ratio, live April 1, could generate $1.3 trillion in new loans per S&P Global. Hayes says artificial intelligence (AI) job losses created a credit deflationary event, but U.S. defense spending of $1.5 trillion offsets the drag. Arthur Hayes at Bitcoin Vegas 2026: BitMEX Co-Founder Flips Bullish on Bitcoin as U.S.-Iran War Shifts Credit Narrative Arthur Hayes delivered the outlook during a live presentation at Bitcoin Vegas 2026 following a reflective period after ski season, and the remarks cover three interlocking forces he believes are reshaping the credit environment: artificial intelligence-driven job losses, the Federal Reserve transition to incoming chair Kevin Warsh, and a structural shift in how U.S. commercial banks will absorb government debt. “I’ve turned a bit more bullish, and I’ll explain why,” Hayes said. “It’s time to think about money creation and money printing, and what that means for bitcoin.” Hayes opened with a candid read of the U.S.-Iran conflict. He said he monitors the spread between the six-month WTI oil futures contract and the front month every morning to strip away political noise and focus on whether commodity flows remain functional. His conclusion was that conditions are stressed but not severe enough to trigger a flight from risk assets. #ArthurHayes’LatestSpeech