Zhao (CZ), in his AMA (Ask Me Anything) session, stated that centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX) will continue to coexist for many years to come. CZ also noted that the global adoption of cryptocurrencies is much lower than commonly believed, stating: "The true depth is probably below 1%." According to CZ, CEX and DEX are not direct competitors, but serve different user profiles. He emphasized that using DEX requires technical knowledge and a high level of security, adding that protecting one's wallet is still a specialized skill.
Bad news from the United States! Problems have arisen in becoming a bank.
A new debate has erupted regarding the integration of cryptocurrency companies into the banking system. The process of obtaining "national trust bank" status by companies like Ripple (XRP) and Circle has faced opposition from the most powerful lobbying group in the banking sector. The American Bankers Association (ABA), the largest banking group in the United States, has requested an extension in the issuance of new trust bank licenses to cryptocurrency companies in a letter submitted to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on February 12.
Standard Chartered has announced it expects a sharp decline in the cryptocurrency markets in the short term, warning that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to the $50,000 level.
One of the world's leading banks, Standard Chartered, has revised its near-term expectations for digital asset markets downwards. In a new report shared by Geoffrey Kendrick, head of the bank's digital asset research unit, it was stated that investors can expect a challenging period of "capacity" in the coming months. According to the report, selling pressure in the markets may continue until macroeconomic conditions and possible changes in the leadership of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) become clearer.
Kendrick predicted that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could fall below $50,000 during this period, while pointing to the $1,400 level for Ethereum (ETH). However, emphasizing that these sharp declines are buying opportunities, the bank updated its year-end targets to $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC) and $4,000 for Ethereum (ETH). The bank also lowered its price expectations for major altcoin projects such as Solana (SOL), XRP, BNB, and Avalanche (AVAX) in line with market conditions.
ETF Investors and Macroeconomic Pressures
One of the most striking points in the analysis was the current situation of exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors. Many investors reportedly bought at an average price of $90,000 and are now facing unrealized losses. Kendrick stated that ETF holdings have decreased by approximately 100,000 Bitcoin (BTC) since their peak in October 2025, and investors are more inclined to sell than to buy at the bottom.
Despite this, it is noted that the market is not facing a major systemic catastrophe like the FTX or Terra/Luna crashes of 2022. Experts argue that the market has become more resilient with increased institutional participation, and predict that digital assets will enter a strong upward trend again during the recovery process that will last until 2026.
When Will Trump's Candidate Start Cutting Interest Rates?
The Fed has made 25 basis point interest rate cuts in its last meetings. However, while the Fed paused interest rate cuts at its January 2026 meeting, there is no clear view on when rate cuts will begin. At this point, even the possibility of the Fed not cutting interest rates at all is among the predictions, while UBS Global Wealth Management stated that a rate cut by the Fed is still possible, but there is no need to rush. When Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates? According to Walter Bloomberg, UBS analysts predict that the Fed may cut interest rates if inflation retreats despite stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data in January. According to analysts, the decline in US inflation will allow the Fed to continue on the path of interest rate cuts despite strong employment data. UBS Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele stated that their base scenario is a 25 basis point cut in both June and September, and that this would "create a positive environment for stocks, bonds, and gold." Analyzing data from the London Stock Exchange (LSEG), UBS stated that markets have reduced their expectations for interest rate cuts this year from 60 basis points to approximately 50 basis points, pricing in the first cut in July instead of June. What Kind of FED Chairman Will Kevin Warsh Be? According to Bloomberg, Krishna Guha, Vice President of Evercore ISI, stated that the nominee for FED chairman, initially put forward by US President Donald Trump, may take a more dovish stance than initially thought. According to Guha, Kevin Warsh may not be the FED chairman the markets expect. Guha believes that Warsh's tough stance on inflation may be exaggerated. Guha suggests that while Warsh's nomination initially raised bond yields and lowered gold prices, his policy stance may lean towards a more dovish monetary policy approach. "Warsh pointed to artificial intelligence and productivity increases as positive supply shocks that could ease the pressure of tight monetary policy. While Warsh supports shrinking the Fed's balance sheet, he believes it is unlikely to embark on an aggressive tightening policy that could shake the markets," he commented. $BTC $GALA $ASTER
Does "winter" silently approach Bitcoin? The increase could be misleading.
Although the price of Bitcoin remains at high levels, the internal market dynamics suggest that a new "winter" phase may have begun.
The recent decline in the cryptocurrency market is still seen by many investors as a healthy correction. The vivid memory of the sharp collapse in 2022, in particular, makes investors psychologically hesitant about the idea of "entering winter again." Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs, increasing institutional participation, and infrastructure development reinforce the perception that the current cycle is different from the past.
However, historically, "winter" periods are not exclusively defined by price declines. The true determining factors are the balance between supply and demand, capital flows, and a collapse in market psychology. In this regard, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 14, in the "Extreme Fear" zone. The strong deterioration in sentiment, despite the price remaining high, is similar to the pattern observed before past winter cycles.
High price, weakening internal momentum
Capital flows also support this picture. While inflows of around $10 billion in 2024 have increased market capitalization, the decline in total market capitalization in 2025, despite inflows exceeding $300 billion, indicates that structural selling pressure persists. This suggests that the impact of capital inflows is offset by distribution.
On-chain earnings data also provide similar signals. The decline in realized earnings despite the high price reveals that internal momentum is weakening. Such divergences have historically been observed in the final stages of the cycle or at the beginning of winter.
The European Union is considering a new ban on the Russian channel dedicated to cryptocurrencies: 27 countries would be needed!
The European Union has proposed a blanket ban on all cryptocurrency transactions to prevent Russia from evading sanctions through cryptocurrencies.
According to a document obtained by the Financial Times, the European Union (EU) is evaluating the possibility of banning any interaction with service providers and cryptocurrency platforms linked to Russia. The proposal concerns not only companies directly based in Russia but also structures derived from previously sanctioned platforms described as "copies".
The plan also aims to ban transactions involving the digital ruble. EU officials believe that Moscow considers cryptocurrency an alternative channel for conducting commercial and financial activities used in the war in Ukraine.
New move after Garantex
The proposed measures aim to prevent the emergence of platforms similar to Garantex, the Russian cryptocurrency exchange sanctioned by the EU and the United States last year. According to data from blockchain analysis company TRM Labs, Garantex and Nobitex, based in Iran, accounted for over 85% of funds directed toward sanctioned addresses in 2024.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury has also added Garantex back to its sanctions list. According to the agency, a significant portion of the funds transferred on the platform came from other cryptocurrency exchanges linked to criminal activities.
The new sanctions package requires unanimous approval from all 27 EU member states to take effect. According to the Financial Times, three countries are cautiously facing this total ban. If the decision were approved, it would mean breaking all ties with Russia for cryptocurrency companies based in Europe.
Bitcoin sounds the alarm: "These prices will last for the next 150 days"
With the increase in volatility, experts have come together to assert that Bitcoin represents a historic accumulation opportunity. According to analysts, technical indicators and institutional movements suggest that a "decision moment" is approaching for investors. Notable figures in the cryptocurrency world, Scott Melker, Andrew Parish, and Tillman Holloway, have examined the current price movements of Bitcoin and the future of the market in their recent broadcast. The most surprising statement highlighted in the broadcast is that Bitcoin has only 150-250 days left to remain at these levels.
Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), founder of FTX, a key figure in one of the largest scandals in the criminal justice world, has filed a request for a new trial at the Federal Court for the Southern District of New York (SDNY). The question has been recorded as a "pro se" request, that is, submitted by the defendant on their own behalf. The petition has been submitted by Barbara H. Fried, Professor Emerita at Stanford University Law School. The document states that Bankman-Fried is requesting a new trial under Article 33 of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure. A legal memorandum in support and a statement from Daniel Chapsky have also been attached to the request.
Is the future of mining at risk? What will happen if US companies abandon mining?
According to Times writer Bryce Elder, the Bitcoin mining sector, which has long been under pressure, may shift towards artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure due to economic challenges. In particular, the transition of US-based publicly traded mining companies to data center operations could be a critical turning point for the future of the sector. According to the author, the fundamental problem with Bitcoin mining is structural: a system that results in a net zero. As more capacity is added to the network, competition increases, margins narrow, and the base of costs is based on energy prices. MARA Holdings CEO Fred Thiel stated in November that after the next halving in 2028, the daily block reward for miners will drop from 450 BTC to 225 BTC, indicating that the sector's mathematics are becoming increasingly difficult. According to Thiel, unless Bitcoin shows annual growth of 50% or more, the period after 2028 and 2032 will become even tighter for miners. Furthermore, while transaction fees were expected to replace block subsidies, this transition has not yet occurred. On-chain transaction volume remains limited, and open positions in derivatives markets have fallen to approximately $50 billion. Recently, a notable development occurred on the Bitcoin network. Network difficulty dropped by approximately 11%, marking the largest decrease since the Chinese ban in 2021. This suggests that some miners have shut down their machines. Hashrate, which measures total network power, also experienced a sharp drop last month. Furthermore, the fact that a larger portion of rewards are going to miners of “unknown” origin strengthens the possibility that equipment manufacturers may have started running their own operations. According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the solution could be converting mining facilities into AI data centers. The bank's analysis indicates a significant global shortage in AI computing power. Morgan Stanley predicts that data center electricity demand in the US will increase by 74 gigawatts between 2025 and 2028. Taking into account already constructed centers and existing network capacity, a deficit of approximately 49 gigawatts could arise. Converting all Bitcoin mining sites in the US could reduce this deficit by 10-15 gigawatts. These assessments are based on an agreement reached in December. Hut 8 partnered with cloud platform developer Fluidstack to convert a cryptocurrency mining facility in Los Angeles into a data center. The client is AI company Anthropic, and payments are handled by Google. According to Hashrate Index data, the US ranks first in global Bitcoin mining with a 37.5% share. Russia (16.4%) and China (11.7%) follow. The shift of US-based miners towards AI data centers could lead to a recession of network power to countries outside the US. This could weaken the US's strategic position in the crypto ecosystem. This development could create a political contradiction, especially for Donald Trump, who promised to make the US the "crypto capital of the world" during his re-election campaign. $BTC $HFT $ASTER
Has the decline ended? Is a bullish trend beginning?
Bitcoin has been declining since it reached its all-time high of $126,000 in October. While uncertainty remains for Bitcoin, which has dropped to $60,000, Bitfinex has published an updated assessment. Bitfinex stated that the recent decline of Bitcoin represents the deepest correction of the current cycle. Bitcoin subsequently recovered, but according to analysts, this rebound indicates a phase of stabilization following a significant correction rather than a clear trend reversal.
According to him, this is the scenario of the weakest month in Bitcoin's history.
Despite the sharp decline in the price of Bitcoin, Bernstein has maintained its target of $150,000 for 2026, stating that the current decline only indicates a crisis of confidence, not a structural collapse. With the entry of cryptocurrency markets in February with high volatility, discussions about a potential decline in Bitcoin (BTC) have intensified. However, Bernstein, a global research and brokerage firm, has clearly countered the pessimism in its latest report. According to the company, the decline is quite weak compared to previous bear markets in Bitcoin's history.
Cango Inc. (NYSE:CANG) announced on Monday that it sold 4,451 Bitcoin in USDT on the open market last weekend for about 305 million dollars. This is a significant move for the company, which has operated with considerable debt of 407 million dollars in the last quarter.
Classico lunedì per la strategia: annuncia l'acquisto di Bitcoin per un valore di 90 milioni di dollari!
Michael Saylor ha annunciato che Strategy sta continuando i suoi acquisti settimanali di Bitcoin, portando il totale di BTC dell'azienda a un nuovo traguardo di oltre 714.000.
Come ogni lunedì, gli occhi dei mercati delle criptovalute erano di nuovo puntati su Michael Saylor. Secondo gli ultimi dati condivisi da Saylor, Strategy ha acquistato 1.142 Bitcoin (BTC) per circa 90 milioni di dollari. Il costo medio per Bitcoin in questo acquisto è stato di 78.815 dollari.
Con quest'ultima transazione, il totale di Bitcoin di Strategy nel suo bilancio è salito a 714.644 BTC. Il valore monetario totale degli acquisti di Bitcoin dell'azienda fino ad oggi è di 54,35 miliardi di dollari, mentre il costo medio dell'intero portafoglio è di 76.056 dollari per Bitcoin. Le azioni di Strategy sono seguite da vicino dal mercato sia attraverso il ticker MSTR sul Nasdaq sia attraverso il suo nuovo strumento di ristrutturazione, STRC.
Gli annunci settimanali di Saylor su questi acquisti sono diventati una routine sul mercato. La continuazione degli acquisti, anche durante periodi di forti fluttuazioni dei prezzi, dimostra che Strategy non sta abbandonando la sua strategia a lungo termine su Bitcoin.
Cosa significa la persistenza di Bitcoin di Strategy?
I regolari acquisti di Bitcoin del lunedì da parte dell'azienda vengono interpretati come un forte messaggio di fiducia da parte degli investitori istituzionali. Questo approccio, che enfatizza una narrativa di riserva di valore a lungo termine piuttosto che di movimenti di prezzo a breve termine, si distingue come un elemento significativo nel promuovere il sentiment degli investitori istituzionali.
D'altra parte, il totale delle partecipazioni in Bitcoin di Strategy si sta avvicinando a una quota significativa dell'offerta circolante. Ciò indica che l'influenza indiretta dell'azienda sul mercato potrebbe aumentare durante potenziali shock dell'offerta. $BTC $ETH