阿简在路上

I can’t even remember how many times I’ve praised ETH in this market cycle. Yesterday, the $BTC ETF ended nine consecutive days of net inflows. Of course, this is only a short-term cooling signal—it’s not proof that long-term demand has disappeared. It could be repositioning between products, or a risk rebalancing after macro commentary. On the other hand, the $ETH ETF has continued to record inflows for the 10th consecutive trading day. Even though it dipped slightly over the past 24 hours, ETF buying orders can be temporarily decoupled from price performance.

Moreover, whales and institutions have recently bought over $1B worth of ETH. Exchange ETH reserves have fallen to about 14.93M ETH, which is a strong supply-side signal for ETH. It suggests that some supply may be entering long-term holding, staking, or custody. Next, I’ll watch whether there are continued inflows on the 11th and 12th trading days, and whether the price can hold around $2,400

Someone said to me that I’m playing with too much risk. In fact, when new coins launch and liquidity is high, taking out a bit of small capital to play around isn’t a problem. I’m looking for as much certainty as possible amid uncertainty. The 2,000 U in my wallet plus what I just took from the contract—my moves are temporarily over for now. Even though I didn’t end up getting any big results, I still really like this Chinese meme coin, $牛来 . After all, it’s genuinely very popular in foreign communities. If you’re interested, you can search for it on A-Jian’s homepage to see my analysis journey along the way. The big profit window has passed. Now I’m just waiting for tomorrow’s bull run. If there’s a big drop, you can buy the dip; if there’s a big rally, it’s best to go long directly on $BNB , DDDD

Just reminded everyone, friends, to take advantage of $牛来 's high liquidity and ruthlessly milk the scam 🫨

It’s still the mouth that has been blessed, brothers! I was a bit sleepy, and “Up forever” got said as “up spot” 🤣. I don’t know if the brothers who are watching caught up or not. Anyway, I already sold at 92M. For the brothers holding $牛来 , I think you can take the opportunity to sell while liquidity is good. In the short term, it doesn’t look like we’ll see higher levels. Even with a big market cap, it’s hard to double. I’ll at most only do a bit of short-term trading again during a pullback.

It’s been a long time since we talked about RWA. Today, let’s discuss Stellar $XLM . The data shows that the on-chain tokenized RWA market value has reached approximately $3.996B, up about 360% from the end of 2025. The main issuers include Spiko, Realize, Tradable, Franklin Templeton, and Ondo. These are evidence that RWA continues to expand. However, A Jian believes that AUM growth does not directly equate to business success. For RWA to truly mature, these questions still need answers:

Can the assets be redeemed?
Is secondary liquidity sufficient?
Are issuers continuously profitable?
Who will bear the compliance costs?

If these issues can’t be resolved, the faster the scale grows, the more likely liquidity and redemption pressure will be exposed.

$NEAR Good news with a little upside? Co-founder Illia said near.com has already enabled a privacy mode by default; information such as balances, deposits, exchanges, earnings, and payments will no longer be directly disclosed to the outside. You know, on-chain transparency is great for verifying transactions, but it’s not suitable for showcasing someone’s entire financial life. As stablecoin salaries, on-chain lending, and corporate payments become more common, privacy will shift from an extra feature to a default requirement.

So this step by NEAR doesn’t involve any major technical upgrade, but it is a genuine shift in product philosophy. However, it will also have to face new challenges in regulation, risk control, and audit permission design—becoming more complex and increasingly similar to real-world finance.

Hyperliquid founder Jeff Yan said that after the next network upgrade, HIP-4 will support permissionless deployment—meaning deployments without permission—so market templates can be rolled out through validator votes. Ajian believes this is important for HL’s long-term structure: in the future, more assets and market templates can shift from being decided only by the platform team to being supported for creation by ecosystem participants

Of course, this not only improves market supply and innovation speed, but may also lead to thinner liquidity, higher manipulation risk, and more junk markets. While open market deployment will expand the platform’s boundary, it doesn’t mean every new market has real demand

For ordinary traders and everyday people, how should you use it? After open markets are enabled, your ability to filter and provide market making will become especially important. Listing permissions, market-making responsibilities, liquidation rules, market review, and low-liquidity risk all need to be factored into your considerations

As for token price capture, Ajian believes this news can’t be transmitted to $HYPE ’s price yet. Hold the $80-$81 range; the trend is still fairly healthy. If it breaks above $83.5, check whether there is new momentum

#日元跌破160创一个月新低 , U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent came out directly and said that disorderly yen volatility could trigger forced liquidation of positions, disrupting global markets 😅 I mean, bro, wasn’t it some speech your man at the White House (sorry, “Vosch”) made that drove U.S. Treasury yields up—how could the yen fall this much otherwise?

A lot of people still don’t understand what yen rises and falls actually mean. If U.S. Treasury yields reflect the Fed’s path, then the yen reflects the global funding flow. When both variables move at the same time, it means the market is recalculating the cushion (margin of safety) of carry trades. But this current setup—stronger USD, weaker JPY—is still tolerable and isn’t automatically a bearish signal $BTC

The real danger is if the yen suddenly reverses and appreciates, forcing carry-trade funds to sell everything they can sell. Things with the best liquidity—BTC and tech stocks included—could be pared down together. So if you’re the kind of trader who cares about indicators like support and resistance levels, the three variables you should watch next week are: USD/JPY’s daily moves, daily Treasury yields, and the risk appetite after the U.S. stock market opens.

Solana’s SGP-0002 ultimately passed with about 67% participation to support equity. It has just crossed the 66.67% threshold. Over the next six years, it is expected to issue about 18.9 million fewer $SOL . The vote approval rate that A Jian previously initiated was 78%. This should be the first time on-chain governance puts the token dilution rate on the table through a vote—it’s not something that can be summarized by a simple “good news” $SOL . It also affects token holders, validators, staking products, and institutional financial models.

Issuing fewer tokens may reduce dilution, but it will also reduce some validators’ and stakers’ income. The real value depends on whether network usage can absorb the change in supply. If fees, users, application revenue, and staking demand do not grow, slower dilution will only backfire.

So for token holders, the most practical tracking sheet can keep only four items: net issuance, staking rewards, protocol fees, and application-layer revenue. If implementation is delayed, the market will trade the narrative first, and later trade the gap between the narrative and execution.

A user advised me to look into the matter that Ethena handled the early investor lockups via an OTC buyback ($ENA ). A-Jian also analyzed this a couple of days ago. To some extent, it does reduce sell pressure in the public market, but this can’t be explained with something as simple as a positive or negative catalyst, because ordinary market participants may not be able to see the transaction price, the counterparties, or the actual circulation arrangement. It’s more like moving the supply issue from the public market to the agreement and the counterparty

If the buyback is funded by real revenue, it can indeed reduce concentrated sell pressure in the market. However, when investors stop locking their holdings, it also means that the boundaries of future freely tradable supply become clearer. So for ordinary traders, I suggest when you look at $ENA , focus on tracking the USDe size, protocol revenue, buyback execution, and the actual freely circulating volume after October 5. Don’t chase price movements—just wait and let the market digest the supply changes

$BTC has essentially been moving sideways around $78K over the past 24 hours. The price hasn’t pulled back significantly despite the ETF’s one-day outflow, which suggests that the spot market is still absorbing it. Alternatively, it may simply mean that the funds have shifted from continuous buying to rebalancing at higher levels for a short period—it's not that they stop buying. And this kind of high-level turnover naturally comes with both redemptions and profit-taking.

So on weekends, when there’s no ETF data, A Jian asks all his friends to watch one metric: the unrealized profit rate of BTC short-term holders is close to 15%, with an average cost of about $70.1K. The current price is now clearly above the cost line—short-term holders have finally moved from underwater back into the profit zone.

And when the amount of profitable positions increases, the market tends to show three behaviors: realizing profits, adding positions, and re-leveraging. The first provides supply, the second supports the trend, and the third increases volatility. This also means that if the price wants to keep rising, it needs to face more active sell orders.

In summary, be calm about this weekend’s sideways action. A healthy trend requires both sellers and new buyers to absorb the flow. We should observe whether, after profit-taking, the price can hold around $77K–$78K

Even on weekends, you can’t afford to lower your guard on safety. So the first thing after getting up is to brief all my friends on the latest two safety updates:

First, after Fogo detected unauthorized activity, it temporarily paused the mainnet to prevent the affected assets from continuing to move. Prior reports said that about 400M $FOGO was transferred out by an attacker. Second, it’s the classic dilemma: if you don’t pause, the attacker may keep moving funds and cashing out; if you do pause, it may not be sufficiently decentralized. The pros and cons are for each of you to judge. Ajian only advises everyone that when you encounter such incidents, you should immediately stop cross-chain and approval/authorization operations, then confirm the official announcements and the deposit/withdrawal status of the exchange.

Second, due to potential intrusion reports, the Oracle protocol Switchboard has paused multiple services on networks including Aptos, Sui, IOTA, and Movement. As of now, no similar issues have been found on the Solana side. This matter has a broader impact than a typical smart-contract attack: because Oracles are the price-input layer for lending, liquidations, stablecoins, and derivatives, once they are paused, the protocol may be unable to determine whether collateral is safe. Ajian also recommends that when researching DeFi, don’t overlook the middle-layer services such as oracles, bridges, and custodians—take a closer look at the protocol’s oracle source(s), backup data sources, and emergency withdrawal mechanisms

Uh, while getting up to pee, I saw that $牛来 started. I still think it’s good to go ahead with the available stock—after all, I bought in at 40M 🤨

Fearful: In the past 7 days, Circle issued another ~11.2B USDC, redeemed ~10.2B, for a net increase of about $1B. USDC supply reached about $73.7B, with reserves of about $74B, mainly made up of U.S. Treasury bonds and deposits. Look—ETFs are exiting, yet the stablecoin supply is still expanding.

Although USDC net issuance doesn’t directly equate to buying pressure, if it isn’t entering trading, lending, or payment scenarios and only sits on exchanges and in custody accounts, the price transmission will be relatively weak. But it does represent an increase in available “on-chain” dollars within the financial system. Market trading demand, settlement demand, and on-exchange cash demand haven’t disappeared. Just remember to separate issuance volume, exchange balances, DeFi deposits, and real payments.

Avicii caused losses of about $1M for 1,685 users due to a security vulnerability. The company is currently planning full compensation. Another report, however, claims the losses were about $0.5M. But A-Jian believes the significance of this matter isn’t about the exact amount of the loss—it’s about whether compensation will be made, how it will be made, and who will pay.

For a payments product, security incidents aren’t the scary part. What’s scary is when the project doesn’t have a compensation plan and doesn’t provide a clear ledger of users’ liabilities. A well-run, resilient risk-mitigation framework must include an accident budget. And for ordinary users, when using crypto cards/neobanks like this, remember to read the compensation terms, the custodian, and withdrawal permissions carefully first.

Former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez admitted to illegally profiting on the Kalshi prediction market by using nonpublic information obtained in advance of Trump’s teleprompter script, and agreed to pay a fine of about $172,500 and disgorge illegal proceeds. If I’m not mistaken, this should be the first instance in the history of prediction markets involving insider trading enforcement tied to top White House staff—signaling that the rulebook’s boundaries are being extended to political games.

This case shows us that the biggest risk in prediction markets has never been technology, but rather insider cheating. We can view prediction markets as leading indicators for macro events; however, the more a contract’s liquidity is concentrated in a small number of accounts—and the more those accounts have physical contact with the decision-making tier—the lower the contract’s reference value becomes#提词员付17万美元和解内幕交易案

As the U.S.-Iran war entered its sixth month and the average U.S. gas price broke $4, #特朗普称美达成委内瑞拉石油协议 secured majority control—through cooperation with private enterprises—over 17 oil fields in Venezuela, representing more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. In A-Jian’s view, this “largest oil deal in world history” may well be the deciding move for Trump to ease domestic inflation pressure.

65 billion barrels is one-fifth of Venezuela’s reserves. If this deal can be carried out, global oil pricing power will fully return to Washington—this is essentially the openly stated bargain of using resources to buy the next election’s votes. However, based on what I observed when passing through Venezuela, the infrastructure is no better than in Africa. From reaching the agreement to actually producing oil may still take several years, so in the short term it will have limited effect in materially suppressing oil prices.

Ordinary traders only need to understand that oil is not only energy, but also a political asset in an election year. Especially amid the current global energy turmoil, whoever controls proven reserves also has the final say on inflation. You may consider paying attention to energy stocks with deep involvement in Venezuela’s business, such as Chevron $CVX.US .

Damn! Everyone, be careful with this trending post #中国批准新增684亿美元QDII额度 . After checks by A Jian, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange updated its data on August 28. The new quota approved for 78 institutions this time is 6.84 billion USD—it's a whole order of magnitude difference. To know, the total approved quota is 183 billion USD.

That said, the FX regulator chose to release quotas during a period of market volatility—this is indeed a very strong signal, showing that regulators’ tolerance for capital outflows is increasing. With domestic asset returns heading downward, the continued issuance of QDII quotas is the only compliant channel for private capital to seek global allocation.

For ordinary traders, you can pay attention to QDII funds whose quotas are tight, such as those from Southern Fund or something from Dacheng. After the new quota is released, the premium on these funds should fall back—this is a good time to enter global assets. For experienced on-exchange traders, this quota also provides potential buy-side support for U.S. Treasuries. What to do next—A Jian doesn’t need to say more, right?

The Charles Schwab planning to, within the next several months, open spot buy/sell trading for $SOL , $AVAX , and $LINK to its 39.9 million accounts. Schwab is a major backer of traditional retail capital, and A Jian believes this is the endgame of Layer 1 institutionalization—because Schwab’s entry means the liquidity depth of these few coins will enter the era of tens-of-millions of accounts, and their pricing logic will shift from community consensus to asset-portfolio allocation. A slow bull market is on the way.

Of course, on the other hand, Schwab’s trading commission is 75 basis points, far higher than on-chain or professional exchanges. Its entry is more about facilitating the allocation of holdings rather than serving as a trading venue. Its significance is not how much premium may appear before or after the formal launch, but rather the final confirmation of the asset characteristics of these few coins.

#嘉信理财拟新增SOLAVAXLINK交易

This damn blessed mouth of mine—Waller’s speech at the Jackson Hole conference yesterday clearly pointed out that inflation is still above the 2% target. The Fed’s top priority right now must be price stability. Such an extremely hawkish tone directly extinguished the market’s hopes of a September rate cut. Risk assets like $BTC and $XAU promptly fell; the implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September jumped sharply to about 57%. The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries rose by roughly 12.4 basis points

It looks like the phase where cash is king hasn’t ended yet. The market is shifting from bargaining for rate cuts to pricing in rate hikes. This kind of dramatic expectation reversal is also a trigger for liquidity stampedes. If Waller insists on not backing down until he sees 2% and won’t stop, then for the rest of 2026, the valuation repair for risk assets will be extremely painful. Regular traders shouldn’t go taking on higher leverage during such violent swings in expectations. Current market pricing is extremely unstable, and any data surprise can be a two-way harvest.

Finally, Waller mentioned how AI can improve productivity. That may be the only card he has to prevent a hard landing while keeping interest rates high. If productivity gains from AI can’t offset debt interest expense, then Waller’s rate hikes will amount to suicide#沃什称通胀是美联储首要关注 #比特币24小时跌3.4%至7.74万美元