🔹 2021 Bull Cycle • Sept 7–Sept 21, 2021: Correction ~$53,000 → ~$39,500 (-25%). • Sept 22–Sept 30, 2021: Rebound to ~$44,000–47,000. • Oct 1–Oct 20, 2021: BTC broke ATH, hit ~$67,000. • Nov 1–Nov 10, 2021: Final top ~$69,000. • Nov 11 onward: Distribution → downtrend began. 👉 Pattern: Mid–late September bottom → October breakout ATH → Early November top.
🔹 2025 Cycle Projection (based on your chart & past cycles) • Sept 10–20, 2025: Correction ongoing (~116k → 109k). Likely bottom window = 106k–104k zone. • Sept 21–Sept 30, 2025: Base/rebound begins if support holds. • Oct 1–Oct 20, 2025: Rally → retest 116k–124k (could break ATH). • Nov 1–Nov 15, 2025: Potential explosive phase → cycle top window begins. • Nov 16–Dec 2025: Risk of topping/distribution (like 2021).
✅ Historical Consistency: • 2013, 2017, 2021 → all bottomed mid-Sept, rallied hard in Oct, peaked in Nov. • 2025 is tracking almost the same pattern.
The daily OBV downtrend break is saying to sell. Selling volume is increasing and buyers aren't showing up at these prices. Without a bullish catalyst we have a high chance of going lower.
In Every Bull Market Bitcoin runs from extreme lows to extreme highs.
In 2015 -2019, BTC pumped from $150 to $19,500 with 6 pullbacks, ranging between -29% to -49%.
In 2019- 2021, BTC pumped from $3,200 to $69,000 with 6 pullbacks, ranging between -19% to -60%
In 2023-2025, BTC has pumped from $15,500 to $44700 so far, with 3 pullbacks ranging between -20% to -23%. As Price continues to Rise we might see more such pullbacks in the future.
While nobody can guarantee the exact timing of the next pullback but if you are still on the sidelines.