野狼扬帆投研

3. Set your "take profit and stop loss" in advance and strictly execute it.
- Stop loss: Before opening a position, determine "the maximum loss I can accept", for example, set an automatic liquidation when the price drops by 3%-5% (adjust according to the volatility of the asset; BTC/ETH can be slightly wider, while small tokens need stricter limits). Never hold a position (fantasizing about a rebound during a downturn often leads to greater losses).

- Take profit: When the expected profit is reached (for instance, 5%-10%), partially or fully liquidate to secure profits and avoid "profit giving back" or even turning profits into losses.
Discipline is the lifeline of contract trading; acting on emotions = giving away money.
4. Only trade "familiar assets" and "clear trends"
- Prioritize mainstream coins with high liquidity and relatively controllable volatility, such as BTC and ETH. Small tokens (low market cap, low trading volume) are prone to manipulation, have larger slippage, and carry a higher risk of liquidation.

- When the trend is unclear (sideways movement), try to avoid trading, and only attempt during clear upward/downward trends, ensuring that your direction is consistent with the trend (don’t guess tops and bottoms against the trend; you are likely to be proven wrong by the market).

3. Advanced reminders: Cognition and mindset management

- Accept that "losses are normal": The essence of contracts is a probability game; no one can be 100% correct. Be mentally prepared for "this trade might lose" before each transaction, and do not let a single loss affect subsequent decisions.

- Avoid frequent trading: Frequent opening and closing of positions can lead to accumulated fees and disrupt rhythm due to "overtrading". It is advisable to limit daily trades to no more than 3 times.
- Review and summarize: After each trade, record the reasons, profits and losses, and whether the actions aligned with the plan, continually optimizing the strategy (but don’t expect a "perfect strategy"; the market is always changing).

4. The final harsh word

Behind the "profit myth" of cryptocurrency contracts lies the accumulation of funds from countless liquidated traders. Statistics show that over 80% of contract traders end up losing money, including cases of debt due to leverage. If you want to participate, first ask yourself: "Can I accept losing all my capital?" If the answer is no, withdraw immediately.

The core of investing is to "survive", not to take a gamble.
#合约挑战

Cryptocurrency contract trading (leveraged trading) carries extremely high risks, with significant price fluctuations and inherent leverage amplification effects, which may lead to quick profits but are more likely to result in substantial losses or even liquidation. Below are core recommendations based on risk control, and must be approached with caution:

1. First clarify the situations where "contracts are not suitable"

If any of the following conditions apply, it is strongly advised to stay away from contracts:

- Participating with "essential living funds" (money that cannot be lost should absolutely not be touched);
- Completely unaware of the "leverage principle," "margin mechanism," or "liquidation rules";
- Emotions are easily uncontrollable (greedy when profitable, holding positions when losing);
- Having a mindset of "getting rich overnight" and wanting to rely on contracts for a turnaround.

2. Core principles that must be followed (lifesaving clauses)

1. Strictly control the leverage multiple
Beginners are advised to start with 1-5 times leverage (even using just 1 time to become familiar with the rules), and absolutely avoid high leverage above 20 times. The higher the leverage, the more even slight price fluctuations can trigger liquidation (for example, with 100 times leverage, a 1% price fluctuation can lead to liquidation).

Remember: Leverage is an "amplifier," which can amplify profits as well as risks, with 90% of liquidations stemming from high leverage.

2. The position of a single contract must not exceed 5% of the principal
Each time a position is opened, use no more than 5% of the principal as margin, reserving enough funds to cope with fluctuations. For example: with a principal of $10,000, each time the margin for opening a position should not exceed $500; even in the event of liquidation, the loss can be controlled within 5%, avoiding total depletion.

#合约交易 #合约爆仓

The price trend of Ethereum over the next year is relatively optimistic, with the potential to benefit from factors such as technological upgrades and increased institutional investment, possibly rising above $7000. However, attention must also be paid to price corrections resulting from macroeconomic shocks and other risks. A detailed analysis is as follows:

- Technological upgrades drive price increases: The Fusaka upgrade is scheduled for completion on December 3, 2025, introducing peer-to-peer data availability sampling and scalability based solely on Blob parameters, which can reduce Layer 2 transaction fees by up to 95%, increase blob throughput by 8 times, and raise the gas limit.

This will enhance block validation efficiency, reduce reliance on L2 networks, and improve Layer 1 throughput, potentially increasing fee income for Ethereum holders, thereby driving prices up.

If L2 solutions are successfully applied, it is expected that by mid-2026, the price of Ethereum could rise above $7000.

- Institutional investment provides support: Currently, 43% of the circulating Ethereum is held by large institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Jane Street, and the inflow of institutional funds provides strong support for prices.

Moreover, the U.S. Ethereum ETF is expected to receive approval in early 2026, which will provide regulated entry points for institutional capital, further accelerating institutional adoption of Ethereum and potentially driving prices higher.

- Macroeconomic and regulatory impacts: The macroeconomic environment greatly affects the price of Ethereum. If macroeconomic shocks such as a recession in the U.S. occur, the price of Ethereum may drop, testing support levels around $2400.

However, the stablecoin framework in the GENIUS Act passed in July 2025 enhances Ethereum's attractiveness as a settlement and trading layer, and regulatory clarity is beneficial for its long-term development.

- Market supply and demand dynamics are favorable: Exchange reserves have dropped to 16.8 million ETH, the lowest level in five years, indicating a decrease in Ethereum's liquidity in the market, which may drive prices to rebound.

At the same time, staking activities have increased, with over 30% of ETH staked on the beacon chain, reducing market sell pressure and providing support for prices.
#ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察

From the current price and various factors, BNB is expected to show an upward trend in the next year, with the price gradually approaching around $1500. The following is a detailed analysis:

- Technical Analysis: BNB has rebounded above $920, approaching the key resistance level of the 7-year ascending channel for the sixth time. Historically, this pattern usually indicates that the price will reach higher points.

From a technical indicator perspective, the weekly RSI remains around 58, showing a bullish divergence. The MACD has also confirmed a golden cross, indicating that despite recent fluctuations, the bullish strength is strong, providing technical support for price increases.

- Fundamental Analysis: BNB, as the native token of Binance, the largest centralized exchange by trading volume, possesses a unique ecological closed loop. BNB Chain continues to upgrade, with the launch of zkBNB Layer2, improvements in cross-chain bridge security, etc., expanding the consumption scenarios for BNB.

The total supply has been locked at 137.74 million tokens, forming a deflationary model. On-chain data shows that the number of BNB holding addresses has exceeded 8 million, with a relatively dispersed distribution, a healthy market structure, and a high level of market recognition and liquidity.

- Market Expectations: Most analysts believe that BNB has significant upward potential. If it can break through the 7-year ascending channel resistance level with increased volume, the initial target will be around $950-$1000. According to Fibonacci projections, it could reach $1150-$1500 by mid-2026. In the long term, if BNB successfully integrates into global digital payment and financial infrastructure, its value may experience exponential growth.

However, the cryptocurrency market is heavily influenced by regulatory policies. If Binance faces joint sanctions from multiple countries or is forced to exit major markets, it could pose significant negative pressure on the price of BNB. The above content is compiled based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice. #bnb #加密市场观察