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According to CryptoQuant, the current bear market is developing faster than the beginning of the bear market in 2022. Since BTC fell below the 365-day average in November 2025, the decline is expected to be significantly deeper in a comparable time frame.
Faster decline, extreme fear, and a possible "panic bounce"
Analysts indicate an acceleration of worsening momentum and the loss of important technical levels. Additionally, there is a fading of leverage and weaker spot demand — which often results in a mix of "crypto winter" in the short term.

Rumors about Binance's alleged insolvency spread on X after a viral post and screenshot of a 'legal document'. Binance publicly denied the matter, stating that the document is fabricated.
How FUD works in a nervous market
In moments of strong declines and fear, the market is susceptible to disinformation. It only takes one post, 'leak', or screenshot to trigger an avalanche of shares and calls for mass withdrawals.
In this situation, Binance indicated that the circulating document did not originate from the exchange and called for caution regarding forgeries. Co-founder He Yi also commented, suggesting that despite calls for a 'withdrawal test', the platform remains operationally stable.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the government does not intend to sell the seized bitcoins. At the same time, he clearly cut off speculation that the state would pressure banks to buy BTC.
The U.S. holds BTC, but without a 'mandate for adoption'
During a congressional hearing, a question was raised about whether the administration could 'rescue Bitcoin' or create regulatory incentives that would push banks towards BTC (e.g., through reserves). Bessent responded that he does not have such authority.

The XRP derivatives market underwent a strong cleaning after declines and liquidations. Open interest in XRP contracts on Binance has dropped to around 406 million USD, the lowest since November 2024.
Less leverage = fewer 'squeezes'
XRP has been in a downward trend for several weeks, and the recent wave of selling has added pressure. At the same time, derivatives data suggests that a significant amount of excessive leverage has been cleared from the market: OI has decreased as longs were liquidated, and traders were closing positions.

Michael Burry argues that Bitcoin does not act as a safe haven during market stress. According to him, companies with large BTC reserves may enter a very uncomfortable zone during the next wave of declines.
Are BTC vaults a ticking time bomb?
Burry points out that BTC is increasingly behaving like a high-risk asset, correlated with the stock market — instead of acting as a hedge.
As geopolitical uncertainty rises, traditional safe havens (e.g., gold) tend to gain, and Bitcoin does not necessarily follow this trend.

The market quickly added theory: "whale escapes from quantum computers." Galaxy Digital calms the emotions and states plainly: the transaction was planned, not panic-driven.
"Investment decision, not fear"
At the turn of 2025/2026, there was a lot of noise about the sale of BTC for nearly 9 billion USD carried out by an institutional client with the involvement of Galaxy Digital. The scale was so large that some commentators automatically linked it to the narrative of quantum threat.
Mike Novogratz and the Galaxy team emphasize, however, that the firm acted as an intermediary, and the sale was of an allocational nature: realizing profits and rebalancing the portfolio at the end of the year. Alex Thorn additionally explained that "quantums" have become a convenient pretext on social media, but were not the real reason for the transaction.

When Bitcoin and Strategy (MSTR) stocks fall, the appetite for instruments playing 'the other side' increases.
Leveraged ETF GraniteShares 2x Short MSTR Daily has just climbed to new highs.
ETF for those who play against MSTR
GraniteShares 2x Short MSTR Daily ETF (MSDD) is a fund aimed at delivering -200% daily return relative to Strategy stocks. In practice: if MSTR falls by 2% during the day, MSDD may gain about 4% (the mechanism works daily, so over a longer horizon, results may 'diverge' due to the compounding effect).

Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini has announced a wide-ranging restructuring, involving a reduction of approximately 25% of its workforce and a withdrawal from most international markets. The goal is to reduce costs and focus operations on key regions.
According to the company's statement, layoffs may affect up to 200 positions worldwide and impact employees in Europe, the United States, and Singapore. The process is to be carried out in accordance with local labor law regulations, with most restructuring activities planned for the first half of 2026.

Bitcoin recorded one of the strongest waves of selling in recent months, falling below 67,000 USD and giving back all the gains made after the 2024 US presidential elections. This move aligns with a global reduction in exposure to risky assets.
In the weekly view, the BTC price fell by 23%, and since the historical peak in October 2025, it has already lost over 46%. In the last 24 hours alone, leveraged positions worth 1.43 billion USD have disappeared from the market, involving over 304 thousand traders.

Vitalik Buterin revealed that in the last year he earned about 70,000 USD in prediction markets. Instead of going 'all-in', he chose scenarios where the market overestimated the risks of the most sensational events.
How does 'playing against paranoia' work?
Buterin described a strategy that involves searching for markets where valuations start to resemble collective hysteria — and then betting that extreme scenarios will not materialize. This approach is less flashy than typical 'crypto-degen trades', but can be more stable: you bet on probabilities, not on crowd emotions.

The HYPE token has seen a dynamic rally, and activity in the HIP-3 markets has clearly accelerated. Key derivatives indicators are also rising: trading volumes and the value of open positions.
What drives movement on HYPE?
HYPE gained over 50% in a short time, clearly outperforming the broader market. One of the engines of growth is the development of HIP-3 markets, which enable the creation of perpetual contracts on various asset classes. This is important because it expands the 'menu' of instruments on DEXs and attracts traders seeking exposure beyond the typical crypto basket.

The incident involving immigration services in the U.S. has sparked a wave of comments in the cryptocurrency world as well. The discussion quickly shifted from facts to questions about the limits of power, civil liberties, and the consequences of state policy.
Emotions in the market and political rifts in the community
Media reports suggest that during the protest, there was the use of firearms by officials, and as a result of the incident, U.S. citizen Alex Pretti was killed. The case has resonated widely as it touches on sensitive topics: escalation of law enforcement actions, safety at demonstrations, and procedural errors. There are also voices suggesting that there may have been a tragic misunderstanding in a dynamic situation.

USD1, a stablecoin linked to the World Liberty Financial project, quickly climbed to the top of the market. The increase is expected to support both exchange usability and growing interest from major players.
Where does the 'momentum' of USD1 come from?
The market capitalization of USD1 has exceeded 5 billion USD, and spot market trading has clearly increased — suggesting not only a temporary hype but a real influx of liquidity. One of the factors that usually attracts capital to stablecoins are earn programs and promotions on exchanges that allow for returns during market consolidation periods. As volatility decreases, some investors 'park' their funds in stable assets while simultaneously seeking interest.

Rising oil prices increase inflation risk and may hinder faster monetary policy easing. This is usually not an environment favorable to bitcoin and altcoins.
Why does the price of oil matter for BTC?
WTI rose by about 12% in January to around 64.3 USD, while Brent increased to about 68.2 USD — the highest since September. Oil is a 'hidden component' of costs throughout the economy: it affects transportation, production, logistics, and ultimately consumer prices. When energy prices rise, inflation expectations increase, and the central bank has less motivation to cut interest rates quickly.

The sharp drop of BTC to around 84,000 USD triggered a domino effect across the entire market. In the background, mass liquidations of leveraged positions and growing nervousness related to geopolitics are evident.
Liquidations and geopolitics contribute to volatility
Bitcoin recorded a dynamic drop to just above 84,000 USD — the lowest in about six weeks. This quickly led to a wave of liquidations in the derivatives market. Over 24 hours, positions worth more than 804 million USD were forcibly closed, with around 503 million USD occurring in the last 4 hours, suggesting a sudden acceleration of movement.

A key stage in the work on the bill aimed at organizing oversight of the cryptocurrency market has begun in the U.S. Senate. The Agriculture Committee adopted the bill by a minimal majority, but political friction is just beginning.
The end of 'regulation by enforcement'?
The Senate Agriculture Committee voted on a bill regarding the structure of the digital asset market with a result of 12–11. This is an important signal for the industry, as the document finally aims to clarify how supervisory powers will be divided between the SEC and CFTC, as well as what obligations will be placed on intermediary entities (including exchanges and brokers).

Bitcoin is holding around 87,700 USD and balancing on the edge of ending January with a slight, but positive result.
At the same time, the market is preparing for the expiration of January options contracts, which may influence short-term price dynamics.
If the current month closes with a decline, it will be the fourth consecutive monthly drop for BTC — a phenomenon rarely observed in recent years.

Four consecutive months ended in the red last appeared at the turn of 2018 and 2019, during a prolonged bear market following the 2017 bubble burst. During that period, Bitcoin recorded even six consecutive declining months.

Although the development of quantum computers regularly appears in the debate about cryptocurrency security, market data does not indicate that it currently has a direct impact on the valuation of Bitcoin.
Analysts point out that the recent price corrections of BTC were largely the result of selling pressure from long-term investors and macroeconomic factors, rather than technological concerns.
At the same time, the largest entities in the blockchain industry are taking preparatory actions, treating quantum threats as a long-term problem. Examples include research initiatives, advisory teams, and work on post-quantum cryptography standards.

The deadline for temporary funding of the U.S. government is approaching, and markets are once again discounting the possibility of an administrative impasse.
A potential shutdown would mean, among other things, delays in the publication of macroeconomic data and increased regulatory uncertainty.

For financial markets, including bitcoin, the key issue is not so much the closure of institutions, but rather the limited access to the data on which monetary policy and investor decisions are based. Reduced transparency usually translates into higher volatility.

Bitcoin fell to around 87,000 USD, and the entire cryptocurrency market recorded a noticeable capital outflow.
This move coincided with growing uncertainty surrounding the fiscal situation in the United States and the risk of a renewed partial shutdown of federal administration.
Investors are reacting with caution, which is reflected both in price declines and in outflows from American bitcoin-based spot ETF funds.
At the same time, some analysts point out that despite short-term pressure, long-term interest in cryptocurrency market infrastructure remains stable.