Cryplon

1. On chain stocks and bonds have not resulted in material fee capture for any major L1 protocol. Arbitrum pumped on Robinhood announcement only for Robinhood to build its own inhouse solution. Temporary Nasdaq on-chain trading pump then it turns out they're using private blockchains. SOL doing $1m a day of fees down from $24m Trump coin frenzy and $15m+ of inflation.
2. high inflation and primary equity story is international equities, gold, and AI. crypto is not getting enough attention
3. Trump promised mass deportation, less international engagement, low inflation. seems we are 0/3. With no Trump USD stablecoins and regulatory progress could reverse. Crypto is seen as Trump proxy. when Trump won EURUSD collapsed and BTC went bid. now EURUSD is surging while BTC is down
4. Gold / silver have captured 'sovereign diversification'. Russia appears to have successfully use gold to thwart US sanctions after invading Ukraine. Despite the fact it could have used crypto (it did not). Now China is looking at Gold as a good reserve asset if it chooses to invade Taiwan
5. "Digital Gold" story does not work if Gold is up only and AI is up only while coins are down only. Thus - people no longer believe. At the same time there are high valuations and relatively high network inflation
6. There has yet to have been material evidence of AI <> crypto inter-relation. Bittensor if anything by becoming more credibly non political is allowing subnets to do anything (not just AI related). Coin is dead. Narrative of AI agents doing things with crypto so far has not come to pass.
7. DATs, and MSTR buying at high prices are a double edged sword. As DATs drop below MNAV activists are incentivized to take stakes in DATs and sell the underlying tokens to drive shareholder value. In current market conditions this would be catastrophic
8. Maybe quantum fears - but I think we are memeing ourselves about that far more than ppl are actually trading on this

I think it's important to understand these things. The market put on a huge bet that the system and crypto would mesh. That bet has imploded. It is not pretty. I got some things right and many things wrong. I am not planning on leaving the industry or pivoting to gold mining.
Reasons to be excited about Crypto on a go-forward
1. People are not thinking through what a fully multi polar world looks like given current debt levels combined with CBDCs. base case is mass financial repression and wealth taxes targeted at individuals. Individuals cannot easily
2. There are only 100-200k researchers and engineers in the global AI industry. Unlike previous industrial revolutions - the growth in AI will not cause mass employment. It will instead cause mass unemployment. This will only accelerate confiscatory impulses and also put pressure on global central banks to ease (bullish fixed supply assets). AI itself will be effectively leveraged to track physical locations ala China making it difficult for individuals to effectively custody gold
3. Nation states may not get along but all of them will want to tax citizens
4. The original BTC run was Chinese high net worth individuals. We have a mental model of what this looks like. More repression. More capital controls. That's how BTC went from $100 -> $80k to begin with.
5. Unlike the original BTC run privacy technology has advanced considerably. ZK transactions are 20x cheaper than they were in 2021. Halo2 / Z cash have made substantive technical progress. Railgun is responsive to TornadoCash rulings and there are increasingly legal frameworks for privacy.
6. AI is fundamentally compression technology. Models are getting smaller. Open Source (like Kimi K2.5) is pretty solid and will remain subsidized by China indefinitely which is treating open Source AI development a bit like free marketing for CCP ideals. There will reach a threshold when there are models that are smarter than ppl that run on local hardware. This makes society portable in a way that was previously unimaginable.
7. The technical selling has 2 sources:
a. DAT overhangs, which are reflexive and can expand to buying pressure if the market turns around
b. Bloated teams, which should structurally be able to be cut due to AI coding
8. Re: quantum I think AI coding will also accelerate the speed at which some protocols become quantum resistant, and I imagine this will be faster than traditional websites. There are some undeniably scary 'quantum internet' bear cases out there but I think we're way too early for that

Put another way: sovereign individuals were never really believable before "vibe coding". Because you'd need an army of employees. Who need national services. The economic viability of small scale technological economies is skyrocketing. And therefore even if traditional equities or bonds don't end up on public blockchains imminently there is still believably going to be substantial post-national on-chain volume. But it is coming at a lag vs market expectations, resulting in massive financial destruction
Binance, Hyperliquid and Tron remain successful decade long experiments in - what are essentially equity like assets that exist completely outside of traditional jurisdiction or reporting requirements. It is fundamentally viable to run on-chain businesses, and will become more appealing over time bc of how messed up our world is
I don't want to pretend that the current market condition is good or that "I Called it". or something. I am trying to make sense of it. If I had to sum it up "anti or post nation state assets bet the ranch on nation states and got screwed". Anarcho capitalists shocked their government partnership didn't work out. Makes sense in hindsight doesn't it.

$BTC $BNB $ETH

massive long liquidation cluster sitting between 66k-73k
we’re at $77K and if $BTC drops just 4k to 73k, the cascade starts.
all the people who bought the dip at 80k, 75k, 70k with leverage - their positions start getting force closed
that forced selling pushes price lower. which liquidates more people. which pushes price lower. you know how this works.
66k-73k is where all those longs are sitting. billions in positions that survived the dump so far. barely.
> 2 ways this plays out:
- scenario 1 - sweep the lows. drop to 73k. liquidations trigger. cascade into 66k. maximum pain.
everyone says crypto is dead. that becomes the perfect bottom. classic stop hunt then rip.
- scenario 2 - never touch it. btc holds 77k and grinds higher. those longs survive but they become resistance on the way up because they’re all waiting to take profit and get out alive.
but the thing about liquidation heatmaps though is every time it shows everyone where the trap is and says “let’s hope we don’t sweep that” the market sweeps it

The probability of what's happening is near zero.
Three sigma 6 moves in ONE WEEK.
- Bonds
- Silver
- Gold
We are living through a statistical impossibility.
Let me explain this in simple words.
Last Tuesday, Japanese 30 year debt printed what traders call a sigma 6 session.
Then silver did the unthinkable.
It dumped 40%+.
In a single day.
That's sigma 6 type behavior.
And then gold.
It dumped 20%+.
That's sigma 6 type behavior too.
That's three sigma 6 moves back to back.
To explain quickly.
In markets, we measure how far a move is from "normal" using sigma.
1-sigma is normal
2-sigma is common
3-sigma gets rare
4-sigma is extreme
5-sigma is very rare
6-sigma is supposed to be almost never
Here are the kind of sigma 6 type episodes people remember:
October 1987 crash
March 2020 covid crash
Swiss franc surge in 2015
WTI oil going negative in 2020
But three of these style events in one week?
That one fact explains a lot.
Because sigma 6 doesn't come from a clean headline.
It comes from structure.
Leverage gets too big.
Positions get too crowded.
Margin calls hit.
Collateral gets stressed.
Then you get forced selling and forced buying at the same time.
Now connect the dots.
Japan sits at the heart of global funding.
A break there doesn't stay there.
Then silver breaks.
Then gold breaks.
Why?
When a pillar of funding gets unstable, leverage contracts.
Two things happen at the same time.
Some assets get forced sold.
Protection gets forced bought.
Long term rates tell you about trust in the state.
Metals tell you about trust in the currency.
When both get unstable together, the whole framework is getting challenged.
THIS IS NOT GOOD AT ALL.
When a regime starts to crack, the adjustments are BRUTAL.
And it's exactly in those moments that high sigma moves start showing up across different assets.
I'll repeat it.
Seeing three sigma 6 moves back to back is not normal.
Gold and silver are telling you, clearly, that the system is stressed.
Markets are not pricing it now.
But they will.
I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I'll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.$BTC

Bitcoin is trading above the $75,000 level, which is a key weekly support level on the chart. This zone was retested recently, and how price behaves here will decide the next major move.
On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has dropped below the 20W moving average and the 50W moving average.
From here, there are two clear scenarios.
SCENARIO 1
Bitcoin holds the April 2025 low and $75k becomes the bottom. For this scenario to play out, Bitcoin needs to hold the April 2025 lows and form a higher low.
What would that mean?
The long-term trend stays in place: higher highs and higher lows. The move down to $75k becomes a pullback, not a trend break.
Now connect it to moving averages:
The 20-week MA moving below or pressing into the 50-week MA is a bearish signal, yes. But it does not automatically mean a bear market.
It can also be a late signal after a heavy correction. So Bitcoin needs to stop making lower lows in this $75k area.
For the 4 year cycle to break, Bitcoin needs to reclaim and close above the 50W MA which is currently at $100,400.
A clean weekly close above this area would signal that momentum has finally reset back in favor of bulls.
Most importantly, it needs to hold above the April 2025 low and start building weekly closes that show buyers are stepping back in.
SCENARIO 2
Bitcoin loses the April 2025 low and downside targets open up. This scenario is simple:
If Bitcoin breaks the April 2025 low, the structure changes. At that point:
The higher low structure fails.
The $75k support no longer holds.
If that happens, the $50k–$60k zone becomes the first downside area because it is a major psychological zone and a common reset range after a high-to-low correction.
WHAT DECIDES WHICH SCENARIO WINS?
1. Does Bitcoin hold $75,000 on weekly closes or not?
2. Does Bitcoin break the April 2025 low or not?
If $75k and the April 2025 low holds: Scenario 1 stays alive.
If $75k breaks and the April 2025 low breaks: Scenario 2 becomes the higher-probability path.
$BTC