CoinsProbe

Key Highlights
Traders are turning bearish, with 53.8% of positions across exchanges now short.Monero is forming a double top, with a breakdown below support targeting $303.A daily close above $365 would invalidate the bearish setup.
Monero’s combination of a technically defined double top on the daily chart, short-side sentiment dominance across five of six major exchanges, and a confirmed rejection from the $365 second peak creates one of the more specific bearish setups visible in the current crypto market. Here is the complete picture — with the specific levels that determine the outcome.
XMR is trading at $353.45 — down -2.27% in 24 hours — with a market cap of approximately $6.64 billion. Despite the near-term bearish setup, XMR remains +11.61% over 30 days — reflecting the genuine demand for privacy assets that has sustained Monero’s relatively strong positioning throughout 2026’s broader altcoin weakness.
Monero (XMR) Price on 05 Aug 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
Signal 1 — Exchange Sentiment: 53.84% Short Across All Venues
Exchange long/short ratio data provides real-time insight into how traders are positioning across venues — and the current picture shows a consistent short-side bias that aligns with the technical setup:
XMR Long Vs Short Orders on Exchanges/Source: coinank
Reading the
Exchange data shows a slight tilt toward the short side. Across all exchanges, longs account for 46.16% while shorts stand at 53.84%.
The aggregate 53.84% short positioning reflects the market’s current directional lean — participants with active positions in XMR are leaning toward a decline rather than a continuation of the 30-day recovery. This short-side dominance aligns directly with the double top pattern forming on the daily chart.
The contrarian caveat: Heavy short positioning can also create conditions for a short squeeze — if XMR were to break above the $365 resistance with conviction, the concentrated short positions on Bybit, Huobi, Aster, and Hyperliquid would face forced covering that could produce a sharp upward move. This is why the $365 invalidation level carries additional significance beyond pure pattern analysis.
Signal 2 — Double Top on the Daily Chart
The daily chart is showing a classic double top — one of the most recognisable and historically reliable bearish reversal patterns in technical analysis.
XMR’s double top:
Both peaks of XMR’s double top have occurred near $365 — the level where price rejected both times rather than continuing higher. Following the second rejection, price has pulled back to the current $353.45 — approximately -3.2% below the second peak — with the pattern now in the confirmation phase where the key support test will determine the outcome.
Monero (XMR) Daily Chart-Coinsprobe/Source: Tradingview
The $334.68 support — 50-day MA convergence:
The next major support sits at $334.68 — a level made more significant by its convergence with the 50-day moving average. When a key support level and a major moving average align at the same price, the combined significance is greater than either would be independently — more participants reference both levels simultaneously, creating denser demand concentration at that zone.
A sustained break below $334.68 — particularly on a daily closing basis rather than just an intraday wick — would confirm the double top’s breakdown and activate the measured move.
The $303.46 measured move target:
The double top measured move is calculated by projecting the pattern’s height (distance from the neckline to the peaks) below the neckline breakdown point. For XMR’s current pattern, this calculation produces a target of approximately $303.46 — representing approximately -14% downside from the current price of $353.45.
From a historical context, $303 represents a significant psychological level — below the $300 round number that has served as a reference point for Monero in prior cycle periods. A move to $303 would bring XMR back toward levels not seen since before the 30-day recovery that produced the +11.61% gain.
Bearish Scenario — $334.68 Breaks, $303.46 Activates
XMR fails to hold the $334.68 support/50-day MA convergence — with a sustained daily close below this level confirming the double top breakdown. This activates the $303.46 measured move target — approximately -14% additional downside from the current $353.45. The 53.84% short positioning across exchanges would amplify the downside move rather than resist it, as the dominant positioning aligns with the direction of the breakdown.
Bullish Invalidation — Close Above $365
A daily close back above $365 — the level of both double top peaks — would invalidate the bearish setup entirely. This scenario would require XMR to overcome both the double top resistance and the concentrated short positioning on multiple exchanges simultaneously — but if achieved, would signal the pattern has failed and shift the short-term bias back to bullish. The concentrated short positioning on Bybit, Huobi, and Hyperliquid would then become fuel for a short squeeze, potentially accelerating the upside move beyond what a typical breakout might produce.
Bottom Line
Monero’s +11.61% 30-day recovery has stalled at a double top rejection near $365 — with short sentiment at 53.84% across all exchanges and a confirmed second peak failure setting up the classical bearish resolution toward $303.46 (-14%) if the $334.68 support/50-day MA breaks on a sustained basis.
The setup is binary and level-based: $334.68 is the pivot that decides the near-term direction — its break activates the $303.46 target, while a recovery above $365 invalidates the double top entirely and turns the concentrated short positioning into potential short squeeze fuel.
Watch the $334.68–$365 zone closely in the sessions ahead.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
PUMP trades near $0.002507, up 12.3% in 24 hours and 55% over the past month.Pump.fun generated $32.5M in revenue over the last 30 days, ranking among crypto's top fee-generating protocols.The Power of 3 (PO3) pattern remains bullish, with a target of $0.003124 (~25% upside).$0.002162 is the key support level to maintain the bullish structure.
The rotation toward revenue-generating crypto protocols is producing some of the clearest fundamental-plus-technical setups in the current market. Pump.fun — generating $32.46M in monthly revenue as one of DeFi’s most consistently profitable platforms — is simultaneously showing a textbook Power of 3 expansion phase on the daily chart. The two signals reinforce each other in ways that matter for understanding today’s move.
$PUMP is trading at $0.002507 — up +12.25% in 24 hours and +55.15% over 30 days — with a market cap of approximately $990.34 million. The 30-day performance reflects a sustained, multi-week move rather than a single-day spike — the kind of price action that tends to reflect genuine fundamental and technical alignment rather than a brief sentiment-driven catalyst.
PUMP and UNI Prices on 05 Aug 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
The Broader Context — Revenue-Generating Protocols Leading the Recovery
Pump.fun’s strength is happening within a specific narrative that has been one of the more consistent themes in the current crypto market: the outperformance of protocols with demonstrable, measurable fee generation over narrative-only tokens.
Uniswap (UNI) — up +27.22% over 30 days and trading at $3.94 with a market cap of $2.46 billion — is the most prominent expression of this theme, as we covered in our UNI fee switch and $5.88 target article. The v4 fee switch activation, the third-highest single-day UNI burn, and two days of record on-chain activity confirmed that the market is repricing UNI as a revenue-sharing asset rather than a governance token.
Pump.fun is the second major expression of this theme — and its revenue profile is genuinely extraordinary for a DeFi protocol of its age and market cap.
Pump.fun Revenue: Consistently One of DeFi’s Top Earners
Pump.fun’s fee generation places it among the most profitable protocols in the entire crypto market — not just in the memecoin or launchpad category:
PeriodRevenue24 hours$1.57 million7 days$9.46 million30 days$32.46 million
$32.46 million in 30-day revenue from a platform whose core product is a memecoin launchpad is one of the more remarkable DeFi statistics in the current market. The revenue comes from three primary sources:
Bonding-curve trading fees — Pump.fun’s primary mechanism where traders buy and sell tokens along a mathematical bonding curve before graduation to a full DEX. Every transaction on the curve generates fees for the protocol.
Graduation fees — When a token’s bonding curve fills and the token “graduates” to Raydium or another DEX for open-market trading, Pump.fun collects a graduation fee. The volume of new token launches directly correlates with graduation fee revenue.
Related swap activity — Secondary trading and related swap volume that flows through or references Pump.fun’s infrastructure.
Revenue by Protocol/Source: DefiLlama
Why this revenue profile matters for $PUMP:
As we covered in our should you sell airdrops at TGE or hold analysis — the single most important differentiator between the tokens that delivered long-term returns (Hyperliquid, Uniswap) and those that destroyed value was genuine, measurable protocol revenue. Pump.fun’s $32.46M monthly revenue places it firmly in the category of protocols where token value accrual has a genuine, ongoing fundamental basis — the same category that has outperformed throughout 2026.
As we also covered in our earlier $PUMP Ansem accumulation and Power of 3 article — Ansem’s documented accumulation at the $0.001675 support reclaim and the specific thesis around Pump.fun’s $30–40M monthly revenue and anticipated airdrop catalyst remains intact — and the chart has developed further toward its projected target since that analysis.
Power of 3 Expansion Phase: Already +52%, Still +25% to Target
The Power of 3 (PO3) pattern we identified in our earlier $PUMP analysis has now completed its first two phases and entered the expansion phase — the directional move that represents the pattern’s payoff:
The three phases — updated status:
Phase 1 — Accumulation (complete):
Range High: $0.002162Range Low: $0.001630Smart money built positions within this defined range
Phase 2 — Manipulation (complete):
The flush below $0.001630 to the manipulation low near $0.001997 triggered stop-losses and created the liquidity needed for the expansion phaseThis shakeout removed weak hands at the worst possible price
PUMP Daily Chart-Coinsprobe/Source: Tradingview
Phase 3 — Expansion (currently active):
Price reclaimed the $0.001630 accumulation floor — the trigger that confirmed the manipulation phase was completePrice then reclaimed the accumulation range high at $0.002162 — which has now flipped from resistance to supportFrom the initial PO3 setup entry, $PUMP is already up approximately +52%
Why the $0.002162 flip matters:
The reclaim and hold of $0.002162 as support is the most important technical development since the pattern began. When former resistance converts to support — tested and held from below after the initial breakout above — it confirms the expansion phase is genuine rather than a false move that will revert. The market has effectively re-tested and validated the breakout level.
The remaining measured move:
From the current price of $0.002507, the PO3 measured move target at $0.003124 represents approximately +24.6% additional upside — meaningful continuation from a pattern that has already delivered +52% from the initial setup entry.
Bullish Scenario — $0.002162 Holds, $0.003124 Activates
$PUMP maintains the $0.002162 support level on a sustained closing basis — the expansion phase continues developing as projected — and price builds toward the $0.003124 measured move target (+24.6%). The $32.46M monthly revenue provides the fundamental demand that keeps new buyers engaged rather than allowing the expansion phase to reverse from profit-taking alone. If the anticipated Pump.fun airdrop catalyst materialises — as Ansem specifically cited as a potential repricing trigger in our prior analysis — the target could be reached significantly faster.
Bearish Scenario — Below $0.002162
A sustained daily close below $0.002162 would weaken the expansion phase narrative — suggesting the former resistance has not successfully converted to support and that the expansion phase may be stalling. In this scenario, the $0.001630 accumulation floor becomes the next reference support — a deeper retest of the accumulation zone before the expansion phase can resume.
Bottom Line
Pump.fun’s $32.46M in monthly revenue from its token launchpad infrastructure — combined with a Power of 3 expansion phase that has already delivered +52% and has approximately +25% remaining to its measured target at $0.003124 — creates one of the more complete fundamental-plus-technical setups in the current DeFi token market.
The $0.002162 support is the level that keeps the expansion phase intact. The $0.003124 target is the destination as long as that support holds. Watch whether today’s +12.25% daily move sustains into a weekly close above $0.002162 — that would be the clearest confirmation that the expansion phase is developing as projected.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
LINK trades near $8.16, up 3% over the past month despite remaining down YTD.1.26 million LINK left exchanges in a single day, signaling reduced selling pressure.The weekly chart is mirroring the 2023 accumulation pattern that preceded a 212% rally.A reclaim of $14.43 could open the door to $15.50, while $7.00 remains the key support.
Chainlink’s setup is one of the more precisely documented potential recovery frameworks in the current crypto market — not because of speculation, but because the exact same pattern structure, in the exact same position within the same long-term triangle, on the same asset, produced a documented +212% rally the last time it appeared. That specificity is what makes the current setup worth examining carefully.
LINK is trading at $8.16 — up +2.96% over 30 days and -32.97% year-to-date — with a market cap of approximately $6.11 billion. Despite the YTD decline, LINK has been building a specific technical and on-chain foundation over the past several weeks that mirrors one of the more significant pre-rally setups in its own history.
Chainlink (LINK) Price on 05 Aug 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
1.26M LINK Exchange Outflows: Largest Since June 29
Santiment data confirms that LINK recorded 1.26 million LINK in net exchange outflows in a single 24-hour period — the largest daily outflow figure since June 29.
Chainlink Exchange Outflow/Source: @SantimentData (X)
What exchange outflows signal:
When LINK moves out of exchange wallets into private wallets or cold storage, it reduces the immediately available sell-side supply on exchange order books. Fewer tokens sitting on exchanges means the market needs to absorb less immediate selling pressure — lowering the probability of sharp downside moves driven by exchange-side liquidations.
The scale of today’s outflow — 1.26 million LINK in a single day — is not routine. It represents deliberate, large-scale movement of tokens away from trading venues and into longer-term holding positions. As we documented in our Chainlink whale accumulation and 75% upside article — LINK whale holdings have been at all-time highs, and the exchange outflow data provides the on-chain mechanism through which that accumulation is occurring.
The fundamental backdrop:
The timing of the outflow aligns with two significant institutional developments:
DTCC’s first production tokenized securities trades — The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation — the central clearing and settlement infrastructure for US securities markets — processed its first production trades of tokenized US securities with Chainlink among the technology providers. This is not a pilot or proof-of-concept — it is live, production-environment use of Chainlink infrastructure in the world’s largest securities settlement system.
CCIP expansion to Canton and Robinhood Chain — Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol continues expanding institutional and crypto network support — with Canton (the institutional DeFi network) and Robinhood Chain both adding CCIP integration. As we covered in our Robinhood Chain DEX volume article — Robinhood Chain’s explosive growth makes it a meaningful addition to CCIP’s coverage.
The Long-Term Symmetrical Triangle and the 2023 Fractal
The weekly chart provides the analytical framework that has been building since our Chainlink strongest network growth of 2026 and double bottom article — and the setup has now developed further toward the structural inflection point that makes it most actionable.
The long-term symmetrical triangle:
Since Chainlink’s 2021 all-time high near $52.99, the weekly chart has been forming a massive long-term symmetrical triangle — defined by a descending upper resistance trendline connecting successive lower highs and an ascending lower support trendline connecting successive higher lows. This multi-year structure is one of the largest consolidation patterns visible on LINK’s chart.
Chainlink (LINK) Weekly Chart 05 Aug 2026/Coinsprobe (Source: Tradingview)
The most recent triangle leg:
The latest downward move within the triangle ran from the August 2025 high of $27.865 — the rejection from the upper descending resistance — all the way down to test the lower support trendline near $7.00, where LINK stabilised and began the current consolidation.
The 2023 parallel — the setup that preceded +212%:
The most important element of LINK’s current setup is not the symmetrical triangle itself — it is where within that triangle LINK is currently trading and how precisely that position mirrors a prior historical instance.
In 2023, LINK consolidated in a $4.92–$10.22 accumulation zone at the lower boundary of the same long-term triangle — a period characterised by depressed price, strong on-chain accumulation by large holders, and the market broadly ignoring fundamental developments. That 2023 accumulation phase was followed by:
A reclaim of the 100-week moving average — which served as the specific confirmation triggerA breakout above the upper triangle resistance trendlineA +212% rally — one of LINK’s most powerful sustained moves on record
LINK’s current position:
LINK is currently consolidating in a $7.00–$10.86 zone — almost identical in structure, in identical position at the lower triangle boundary, with comparable accumulation behaviour visible in the on-chain data.
Element2023 Setup2026 Current Setup Accumulation zone$4.92–$10.22 $7.00–$10.86 Position in triangle Lower boundary Lower boundary 100-week MA status Below — awaiting reclaim Below at $14.43 — awaiting reclaim On-chain accumulation Strong Stronger than 2023 Subsequent move +212% Pending
The on-chain accumulation data is particularly notable: as we covered in our whale accumulation all-time high article — smart money accumulation is exceeding anything seen in the 2023 cycle, adding weight to the structural parallel rather than undermining it.
Bullish Scenario
LINK holds the $7.00 lower trendline and continues building within the $7.00–$10.86 accumulation zone — mirroring the 2023 base-building phase. A sustained weekly close above the 100-week MA at $14.43 provides the confirmation trigger — putting the upper triangle resistance at $15.50 (+87%) as the first target. A decisive break above $15.50 activates the larger expansion move that the 2023 +212% parallel suggests — bringing the August 2025 high of $27.865 back into the medium-term conversation.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained weekly close below the $7.00 lower triangle support invalidates the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary — breaking the structural foundation of the accumulation thesis. In this scenario, lower historical support levels become the reference points before any recovery attempt becomes credible. The 2023 fractal parallel would be invalidated, and the next relevant accumulation zone would need to be established at lower price levels.
Bottom Line
Chainlink at $8.16 is sitting at the intersection of a precise historical fractal — the same lower boundary accumulation zone that preceded a +212% rally in 2023 — and the largest daily exchange outflow since June 29, with institutional fundamental developments (DTCC production tokenized securities, CCIP on Robinhood Chain and Canton) providing the underlying demand thesis.
The critical question for coming weeks: can LINK hold $7.00 and build enough base to reclaim the 100-week MA at $14.43 — the trigger that in 2023 confirmed the accumulation phase was transitioning to expansion? Or does selling pressure return and break the lower trendline?
The setup has happened before on this exact asset in this exact structural position. Whether 2026 follows 2023’s script will be determined by whether $7.00 holds and whether the 100-week MA eventually confirms.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
ICP trades near $2.10, up 1.9% in 24 hours despite remaining down YTD.Weekly transactions have surged over 900% since June, reaching 1.3 billion, signaling strong network growth.ICP is forming a descending triangle, with a breakout above $2.15 targeting $3.31 (+55%).A drop below $1.99 would invalidate the bullish setup.
Internet Computer is presenting one of the most significant divergences between on-chain fundamental performance and price action in the current crypto market — weekly transactions growing from 128 million to 1.3 billion in eight weeks while price consolidates in a tight technical range. How that divergence resolves is the question the $2.15 resistance level will answer.
ICP is trading at $2.10 — up +1.93% in 24 hours, -3.43% over 30 days, and -25.94% year-to-date — with a market cap of approximately $1.16 billion. The modest daily gain and the tight consolidation range visible on the daily chart belie an on-chain activity profile that is growing at an extraordinary pace.
ICP Price on 04 Aug 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
Weekly Transactions: 128 Million to 1.3 Billion in 8 Weeks
The on-chain metric that most demands attention for ICP right now is not subtle — it is one of the most dramatic weekly transaction growth trajectories visible in the current crypto market:
PeriodWeekly TransactionsEarly June 2026~128.3 millionWeek ending August 2, 2026~1.3 billionGrowth+913% in ~8 weeks
From 128.3 million to 1.3 billion weekly transactions in approximately eight weeks — a more than 10x increase in network usage in under two months — is not a gradual adoption curve. It is a step-change in network activity that reflects either a major new application gaining traction, a significant infrastructure improvement enabling new use cases, or a combination of both.
Internet Computer Transactions/Source: artemis
Why this matters for the price thesis:
ICP’s architecture — a high-throughput blockchain designed to run applications and store data at internet scale — means transaction volume directly reflects how much computational work the network is performing. A 10x increase in transactions represents 10x more applications running, 10x more user interactions, and 10x more demand for ICP as the network’s gas and staking token.
This is exactly the kind of on-chain growth that precedes price discovery — when the market eventually prices in the scale of network utilisation relative to the token’s current valuation. At $2.10 with a $1.16 billion market cap, a network processing 1.3 billion transactions per week is either significantly undervalued relative to comparable networks or the transaction growth needs to sustain and convert into fee demand to fully justify the repricing.
The growth trajectory — consistently stepping up week over week — suggests this is sustained adoption rather than a one-time spike.
Descending Triangle With a Constructive Historical Parallel
The daily chart is showing a descending triangle — a pattern that carries a default bearish interpretation but whose prior iteration on ICP’s own chart produced a significant bullish outcome.
Understanding the descending triangle:
A descending triangle is characterised by a flat lower horizontal support and a declining upper resistance trendline — where price makes lower highs while the support holds, creating a compression that must eventually resolve in one direction. The pattern is typically considered bearish because the progressively lower highs suggest sellers are becoming more aggressive relative to buyers — but it resolves upward more often than its bearish reputation suggests when supported by strong fundamentals.
Internet Computer (ICP) Daily Chart – Coinsprobe/Source: Tradingview
ICP’s current triangle:
The flat support sits near $1.99 — the horizontal level that has held through multiple tests during the current consolidation phase. The declining upper resistance trendline has been capping every recovery attempt, with the near-term (mini) descending resistance now sitting near the $2.15 area.
The historical parallel — the prior 54% breakout:
The constructive element of ICP’s current setup is a direct historical precedent on the same chart. ICP previously spent approximately 50 days in a corrective phase inside a similar descending structure — before breaking higher for approximately a +54% move. The structural similarity between that prior consolidation and the current one provides a specific, documented reference point for what the bullish resolution of this pattern looks like on ICP specifically.
This is not a generic “descending triangles sometimes break upward” observation — it is a comparison to the same asset’s prior behaviour in an almost identical pattern, which adds meaningful credibility to the bullish scenario.
The $2.15 breakout trigger:
A sustained break and hold above the near-term resistance trendline near $2.15 — ideally confirmed with elevated volume — would signal that the descending triangle is resolving to the upside rather than the downside. This is the specific price event that activates the bullish scenario and puts the measured move target in play.
The $3.31 measured move target:
The pattern’s measured move — projecting the triangle’s height above the $2.15 breakout level — produces a target of approximately $3.31. From the current price of $2.10, reaching $3.31 represents approximately +55% upside — consistent with the prior breakout’s +54% move and reinforcing the historical parallel.
The $1.99 support floor:
The horizontal support near $1.99 is the level that must hold to maintain the descending triangle’s structure and keep the bullish scenario viable. A sustained daily close below $1.99 would confirm the triangle has resolved bearishly — validating the pattern’s default interpretation and opening the door to further downside without a clear support reference immediately below.
Bullish Scenario — Break Above $2.15, Target $3.31
ICP holds the $1.99 horizontal support — the declining upper resistance continues to compress price toward the apex — before a volume-confirmed break above $2.15 signals the bullish resolution. The measured move activates toward $3.31 (+55%), mirroring the prior +54% breakout from the same pattern type on the same chart. The 1.3 billion weekly transaction volume provides the fundamental justification for the repricing as the market catches up to on-chain usage growth.
Bearish Scenario — Below $1.99
A sustained daily close below $1.99 confirms the descending triangle has resolved bearishly — consistent with the pattern’s default interpretation. In this scenario, the horizontal support has been broken, the bullish thesis requires reassessment, and further downside pressure follows without a clear technical floor immediately visible below the $1.99 level.
Bottom Line
Internet Computer is running one of the more striking on-chain growth stories in the current market — weekly transactions growing from 128 million to 1.3 billion in eight weeks — while price consolidates in a descending triangle that previously resolved with a +54% breakout on the same chart. The $2.15 resistance trendline is the specific level that determines which version of this story plays out: the +55% measured move toward $3.31, or the triangle’s bearish resolution below $1.99 support.
Watch $2.15 for the breakout that activates the upside. Watch $1.99 for the breakdown that ends the near-term bullish case.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
DOT trades near $0.8326, up 4.85% in 24 hours as Layer-1 tokens rally.Polkadot transactions have climbed to nearly 400K, signaling stronger on-chain activity.DOT has broken out of a falling wedge, with a technical target of $2.03 (+142%).Bulls need to hold the breakout and reclaim the 100-day MA near $1.02 to confirm further upside.
Polkadot’s +4.85% daily move is not happening in isolation — it is part of a broader rotation back into older-generation Layer-1 tokens that has been one of the more notable developments across the altcoin market in the past 24 hours. The falling wedge breakout and improving network activity give this move a specific analytical foundation beyond pure sector momentum.
DOT is trading near $0.8326 — up +4.85% in 24 hours — with a market cap of approximately $1.41 billion. Despite the near-term recovery, DOT remains -53.46% year-to-date — one of the steeper YTD declines among the major Layer-1 assets — which also means it carries some of the most significant potential upside if the sector rotation develops into a sustained recovery.
Polkadot (DOT) Price on 04 Aug 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
Rising Network Activity Approaching March Peak
On-chain data from Artemis provides the fundamental backdrop that gives the technical setup more credibility than a purely price-driven momentum move:
Metric Data DOT transactions (end of July 2026)397,300 Direction Continuing higher2026 peak (March)~444,700 Distance to peak~47,400 transactions (-10.7%)
Polkadot’s transaction count reaching 397,300 by the end of July — and continuing to climb — positions the network within striking distance of its March 2026 peak of approximately 444,700. This is the kind of organic, on-chain activity growth that distinguishes a genuine network recovery from a purely price-driven speculative move.
Why approaching the March peak matters:
March 2026 was DOT’s peak network activity month of the year — a period that coincided with a higher price level. The fact that transaction counts are now approaching that same level while price is significantly below the March levels suggests that network usage has shown more resilience than price — a divergence that historically precedes price catching up to on-chain fundamentals rather than on-chain metrics falling back to match price.
Steady, improving transaction counts after a prolonged period of softer metrics signal that Polkadot’s ecosystem is genuinely attracting and retaining users — not just experiencing temporary activity spikes around specific events.
Polkadot Transactions/Source: artemis
Falling Wedge Breakout
The technical structure providing the specific, level-based framework for DOT’s current move is a falling wedge breakout on the daily chart — the same pattern type we identified for Cardano’s recovery and Dogecoin’s setup in recent coverage.
The falling wedge structure:
DOT’s daily chart formed a falling wedge during the extended corrective phase — with the lower support trendline holding near $0.7424 and the upper resistance trendline capping recovery attempts near $0.7880. The converging trendlines reflected diminishing selling momentum as the correction approached its natural exhaustion point.
The breakout:
DOT has cleared the upper resistance trendline near $0.7880 — the specific technical event that activates the pattern’s measured move. This breakout follows the rebound from the $0.7424 lower support — the floor that held during the pattern’s formation and whose defence was the prerequisite for any bullish resolution.
Polkadot (DOT) Daily Chart – Coinsprobe/Source: Tradingview
The three-step confirmation sequence:
Step Level Status Step 1 — Breakout above upper trendline~$0.7880CompletedStep 2 — Retest of $0.7880 as support~$0.7880Currently developing Step 3 — Reclaim of 100 MA~$1.02Pending
The most important near-term event is the Step 2 retest — where price pulls back toward $0.7880 to test whether the broken resistance has now become support. A successful hold above $0.7880 during this retest would be the cleanest confirmation that the breakout is genuine. A failure to hold — a sustained close back below $0.7880 — would suggest the breakout was a false move requiring reassessment.
The $1.02 100 MA — the critical intermediate gate:
Between the current price and the $2.032 measured move target sits the 100-period moving average at approximately $1.02 — the first major resistance that DOT needs to reclaim to confirm the recovery is developing into a sustained move rather than a brief bounce. A sustained close above the 100 MA would be the technical confirmation that separates a genuine recovery from a temporary counter-trend move.
The $2.032 measured move target:
The falling wedge measured move — projecting the pattern’s height above the $0.7880 breakout level — produces a target of approximately $2.032. From the current price of $0.8326, this represents approximately +142% upside — a meaningful but historically proportionate move for Polkadot from a confirmed falling wedge breakout at this stage of its cycle.
Bullish Scenario
DOT successfully retests the $0.7880 breakout trendline — holding above it with a sustained close — and begins building toward the 100 MA at $1.02. A confirmed reclaim of the 100 MA with rising volume would validate the falling wedge resolution and activate the $2.032 measured move target as the primary destination. This scenario aligns with the broader older L1 rotation narrative and is supported by the improving on-chain transaction count approaching the March peak.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained daily close below the $0.7424 lower wedge trendline — particularly if it follows a failed retest of $0.7880 — would invalidate the falling wedge breakout entirely. This would confirm the correction has not yet found its true bottom and that the pattern requires a reset to a lower base before any genuine recovery can develop.
Bottom Line
Polkadot’s +4.85% move — joining a broad older-generation L1 recovery that has taken ADA, ATOM, ALGO, and AVAX each above +5% in 24 hours — is supported by three converging signals: a sector-wide rotation back into established Layer-1 assets, Artemis on-chain data showing July transactions at 397,300 and approaching the March peak, and a daily falling wedge breakout above $0.7880 with a clear $2.032 measured move target.
The roadmap is sequential and level-based: $0.7880 retest must hold → $1.02 100 MA must be reclaimed → $2.032 activates. The $0.7424 lower trendline remains the invalidation that ends the bullish thesis if broken.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
PI trades near $0.0826, down 28.5% over the past month as selling pressure persists.August will unlock 127.96 million PI (~$10.56M), with even larger unlocks scheduled through November.Around 1.7 billion PI (~$140.7M) is set to unlock over the next 12 months, increasing supply pressure.PI is forming a potential rounding bottom, with $0.0702 as key support and $0.1044 as the first major resistance.
Pi Network’s price decline is one of the more structurally clear stories in the current crypto market — a combination of accelerating token unlocks creating consistent supply expansion and insufficient demand to absorb it, playing out against the backdrop of a challenging broader altcoin environment. Understanding the unlock schedule is essential to understanding the price trajectory.
PI is trading at $0.08261 — down -4.03% in 24 hours, -28.51% over 30 days, and -59.63% year-to-date — with a market cap of approximately $908 million. Despite meaningful ecosystem development progress throughout 2026 — including the Pi2Day SoloHost, Pi Sign-in, and PiVerify launches, the Protocol v26.1 upgrade, and the SLICE Launchpad distribution — the token price has continued declining as supply growth consistently outpaces demand.
Pi Network (PI) Price on 03 Aug 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
The Core Problem — Accelerating Token Unlocks
The most concrete and data-backed explanation for PI’s sustained price weakness is its token unlock schedule — which is not merely continuing but accelerating through the remainder of 2026 and beyond.
Monthly unlock comparison:
PI Monthly Token Unlock Data/Source: piscan
The trend is unmistakable: Monthly unlocks have grown from $6.33M in June to a projected $12.30M in November — a +94% increase in monthly supply addition over six months. Each month brings more new PI into circulation than the month before.
The 12-month picture:
Over the next 12 months, a total of 1.705 billion PI tokens will unlock — worth approximately $140.7 million at current prices. The average monthly unlock across this period is approximately 17.2 million PI (~$1.42 million per month), with the largest single-month event expected in December 2027 at over 432 million PI (~$35.7 million).
Pi Unlock Stats/Source: piscan
Why this matters for price:
Token unlocks matter because they increase the circulating supply available for selling. Many of the recipients of PI unlocks — early miners, ecosystem participants, and investors who received tokens at effectively zero cost — have a profit incentive at virtually any price above zero. As each month brings additional supply without a corresponding increase in buyer demand, the price faces persistent downward pressure.
As we covered in detail in our PI all-time low and market cap below $1 billion article — this supply-demand imbalance has been the primary structural driver of PI’s decline from its $2.9816 all-time high. Until either unlock pace slows materially or demand grows significantly to absorb the supply, the structural headwind persists.
August 2026 — The Unlock to Watch
The August unlock of 127,961,914 PI (~$10.56 million) represents a +23.4% increase from July’s 103,698,393 PI — the largest month-over-month step-up in the near-term schedule.
At the current price of $0.08261, $10.56 million in new PI entering the market represents approximately 1.16% of the current total market cap being unlocked in a single month — a meaningful float expansion that, absent equivalent new buying demand, creates direct mathematical downward pressure on price.
The unlock does not mean all 127 million PI will be immediately sold — recipient behaviour varies, and some holders will retain tokens with long-term conviction. But even if only a fraction of recipients sell, the supply addition into current thin demand conditions is a consistent price headwind.
PI Coin Technical Analysis
Despite the challenging fundamental backdrop, the daily chart is showing a technical structure worth monitoring — a potential rounding bottom pattern forming after PI’s extended downtrend.
What a rounding bottom means:
A rounding bottom (also called a “saucer bottom”) is a bullish reversal pattern characterised by a gradual, U-shaped price curve — where the rate of decline slows, price stabilises at a low, and then begins a symmetric gradual recovery. Unlike sharp V-shaped reversals, rounding bottoms form over extended periods and reflect a slow but genuine shift in the balance between sellers and buyers.
For a rounding bottom to be valid, the pattern requires:
A clearly defined low area (the bottom of the U)Gradual, symmetric recovery from that lowA confirmed breakout above the neckline resistance level
PI’s current rounding bottom stage:
PI appears to be in the base-formation phase of this pattern — with the price action gradually stabilising in the $0.07–$0.09 zone after the extended downtrend. The pattern is not yet confirmed — confirmation requires specific level reclaims detailed below.
Pi Network PI Coin Daily Chart – Coinsprobe/Source: Tradingview
Critical support — $0.07020 (All-Time Low):
This is the single most important level in PI’s current chart structure. The all-time low at $0.07020 represents both the technical support floor and the psychological level whose break would signal that the decline has not yet found its true bottom. A sustained daily close below $0.07020 would invalidate the current rounding bottom thesis and significantly weaken the bullish structure — putting a new all-time low in focus without a clear support reference below.
First resistance — 50-day MA at $0.10444:
The 50-day moving average at approximately $0.10444 is the first meaningful resistance PI needs to overcome for the rounding bottom to develop constructively. A sustained reclaim of the 50 MA — ideally accompanied by rising volume — would be the first technical signal that the bottom formation is transitioning toward the recovery phase.
From the current price of $0.08261, reaching the 50 MA requires approximately +26.4% upside — a meaningful move but achievable if demand conditions improve.
Neckline resistance — $0.1919–$0.1998:
A decisive break and sustained hold above the $0.1919–$0.1998 neckline zone would complete the rounding bottom pattern — representing approximately +130% to +140% upside from the current price. This level is also significant as the zone where our prior analysis identified key support that PI needs to reclaim for meaningful recovery.
Bullish Scenario
PI holds the $0.07020 all-time low support — the rounding bottom base completes — and price begins a gradual recovery toward the 50-day MA at $0.10444. A sustained reclaim of the 50 MA with rising volume would confirm the pattern is developing and open the path toward the $0.1919–$0.1998 neckline zone as the full pattern target. This scenario requires either a slowdown in unlock-driven selling pressure or a significant increase in demand — potentially from a Tier-1 exchange listing, accelerated KYC completion, or broader altcoin market recovery.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained daily close below the $0.07020 all-time low would invalidate the rounding bottom structure — confirming that the current stabilisation is insufficient to absorb the ongoing unlock supply and that PI has not yet found its true bottom. In this scenario, the bullish setup requires a complete reset to a lower base before any recovery attempt becomes technically credible.
What Would Change the Narrative
As we covered extensively in our PI recovery above $1 analysis — the path to recovery requires demand catalysts that match or exceed the scale of the supply pressure from unlocks. The most likely candidates:
Tier-1 exchange listing: A Binance or Coinbase listing would bring a significant new buyer audience and create the kind of demand spike that could absorb multiple months of unlock supply simultaneously. This remains the most frequently cited near-term catalyst that has not yet materialised.
Accelerated KYC completion: Reducing the KYC backlog that has been one of the most consistent Pioneer frustrations throughout 2026 would activate a larger proportion of the existing community as active participants — as we covered in our Protocol v25 and Dark Mode article.
Ecosystem adoption: If the App Studio, SoloHost, PiVerify, or Pi Sign-in tools attract genuine external developer and business adoption — generating real PI utility demand — the supply-demand dynamic would begin shifting.
Broader altcoin recovery: A risk-on rotation into altcoins would lift PI alongside the broader market, providing the macro tailwind that individual token-specific catalysts cannot fully substitute for.
Bottom Line
Pi Network’s position at $0.08261 reflects a structurally clear market dynamic: accelerating token unlocks — growing from $6.33M in June to a projected $12.30M in November — consistently adding supply into a market where demand has not kept pace. The August unlock of $10.56 million is the latest and largest step in this acceleration.
The daily chart’s potential rounding bottom offers a technically defined recovery framework — but it requires the $0.07020 all-time low to hold and the 50-day MA at $0.10444 to be reclaimed before the pattern carries genuine confirmatory weight. Until either the supply dynamic changes or a significant demand catalyst materialises, the structural headwind persists.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Kaspa (KAS) trades near $0.0265, down about 38% YTD, in line with the broader altcoin market.The Toccata hard fork added KRC-20 tokens, native covenants, ZK proofs, and smart contract capabilities.A declining hashrate has increased selling pressure as unprofitable miners exit the network.Despite recent weakness, Toccata strengthens Kaspa's long-term outlook as a programmable PoW Layer-1.
Kaspa’s -38% YTD decline is painful — but understanding its causes requires separating what is Kaspa-specific from what is simply 2026’s broader crypto market reality. The analysis below does exactly that.
KAS is trading near $0.0265 — down approximately -38% year-to-date — in a year where Ethereum itself has lost approximately the same percentage. This comparison matters: when the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is down -38%, mid-cap and smaller Proof-of-Work projects like Kaspa face amplified selling from the same risk-off forces — plus their own token-specific headwinds on top.
ETH and KAS Price on 03 Aug 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
Reason 1 — Broader Market Weakness (The Primary Driver)
The single largest factor in KAS’s 2026 decline is not Kaspa-specific — it is the same macro and crypto market environment that has weighed on virtually every non-Bitcoin asset this year.
2026’s risk-off environment has been characterised by sustained pressure across altcoins — a combination of risk-off macro sentiment, a stronger US dollar reducing global liquidity, and Federal Reserve policy that has kept rate cut expectations subdued for most of the year. We documented the scale of this in our 5-year altcoin sell pressure extreme article — $209 billion in net outflows with only 36 of the top 100 altcoins remaining profitable for holders.
Kaspa as a high-beta asset amplifies Bitcoin’s moves in both directions — rising faster in bull markets and falling harder in bear ones. In an environment where Bitcoin itself has declined -26% year-to-date, KAS’s -38% decline is broadly consistent with its historical beta relationship to the broader market. The comparison to Ethereum (-38% YTD) is not coincidental — both assets are pricing in the same macro headwinds at similar magnitudes.
Reason 2 — “Sell the News” After the Toccata Upgrade
The Toccata hard fork — Kaspa’s most significant protocol upgrade to date — activated on June 30, 2026, delivering native programmability, KRC-20 tokens, and ZK capabilities. By every technical measure, this was a successful and consequential upgrade.
The price reaction was the opposite of what the technical significance might suggest — a classic “sell the news” dynamic.
Why this happened: In the weeks leading up to the Toccata activation, KAS had been trading with positive momentum as anticipation of the upgrade built — traders and investors buying in expectation of the technical milestone. Once the upgrade went live and delivered what was promised, the most natural next action for short-to-medium term holders who had positioned for the catalyst was to exit with profits. The absence of a new immediate catalyst post-activation left price vulnerable to this profit-taking wave.
This pattern — where a highly anticipated technical upgrade triggers selling rather than buying at the moment of delivery — is one of the most documented dynamics in crypto markets. The upgrade itself was not the problem. The market’s positioning ahead of it was.
Reason 3 — Weak Ecosystem Retention Post-Toccata
Beyond the sell-the-news dynamic, the post-Toccata ecosystem metrics have not yet provided the sustained demand signals that would support price recovery:
Early KRC-20 activity faded rapidly — the initial launch of KRC-20 tokens on Kaspa generated significant attention and trading volume in the first days and weeks after Toccata activation. But early-stage token launches on newly programmable chains frequently follow the same pattern: explosive initial interest followed by sharp normalisation as the novelty fades and only genuine use cases survive. Kaspa’s KRC-20 ecosystem is still in this early normalisation phase.
Reason 4 — Miner Capitulation and Falling Hashrate
The Kaspalytics hash rate chart provides the clearest visualisation of Kaspa’s current mining economics challenge — and why it creates structural selling pressure on top of the market-driven decline.
Chart: Kaspa Hash Rate (EH/s) vs KAS Price (USD) | Source: Kaspalytics.com
Reading the chart:
The blue line (hash rate) shows Kaspa’s network hash rate rising dramatically from approximately 0.05 EH/s in September 2023 to a peak of approximately 1.50 EH/s in December 2024 — a 30x expansion driven by the combination of rising KAS price and the deployment of purpose-built ASIC mining hardware.
From that December 2024 peak, the hash rate has declined consistently — falling to approximately 0.30 EH/s by mid-2026 — as the combination of falling KAS price and competitive mining economics forced less efficient equipment offline.
The grey line (KAS price) shows the same trajectory — peaking near $0.28–$0.30 in late 2024 and declining to the current ~$0.0265–$0.04 range.
Why falling hashrate creates selling pressure:
Miners who remain operational at current prices face a difficult economics equation. With KAS at ~$0.0265 and many miners operating at or near their break-even cost, the incentive to immediately sell mined KAS for fiat to cover electricity and operational costs is high. This creates a consistent, daily supply of KAS entering the market from miners — a structural selling pressure that exists independently of trading sentiment.
As hashrate continues declining, this miner-driven supply should gradually reduce — fewer active miners means less daily mined supply being sold. But the transition is not immediate, and in the near term the miner capitulation dynamic remains a headwind.
What Is the Toccata Upgrade — The Full Technical Picture
For readers unfamiliar with what Kaspa delivered on June 30 — here is a complete breakdown of Toccata’s changes and why they matter:
Before Toccata: Kaspa was primarily a high-speed Proof-of-Work payments network, known for its BlockDAG architecture that achieves 10 blocks per second with high security. Impressive technically — but limited in programmability compared to smart contract platforms.
After Toccata: Kaspa is a programmable Layer-1 with native covenant support, token issuance, ZK verification, and app-specific sequencing — while keeping its high-throughput PoW design intact.
Feature What It Enables Native Covenants Programmable spending rules on UTXOs — vaults, escrow, automated payments, stateful applications Covenant IDs Persistent identity for covenant UTXOs — true state continuity Silver Script High-level language that compiles to native Kaspa script — makes building safer and more accessibleKRC-20 Tokens Native token standard embedded in the UTXO model — atomic transfers, lower friction ZK Proof Verification Native verification of Groth16 and RISC Zero proofs — privacy apps, trust-minimized bridges, verifiable computation Partitioned Sequencing (KIP-21)App-specific sequencing lanes — better scalability for applications Transaction v1 + Introspection Expanded scripting power — more flexible and powerful smart logic
The key architectural distinction: Kaspa did not adopt an EVM-style account model. It remains UTXO-based. Covenants allow UTXOs themselves to carry and enforce state rules — a different and potentially more efficient approach to programmability than Ethereum’s account model. This means Kaspa’s programmability is not EVM-compatible by design — a trade-off that preserves its core architecture but limits immediate developer portability from the Ethereum ecosystem.
How Toccata Positions Kaspa for the Next Cycle
The current price weakness creates a documented “build during the bear market” dynamic — where technical progress accumulates during price depression before being reflected in price during the next risk-on environment. Toccata’s improvements position Kaspa for that eventual cycle in several specific ways:
Expanded utility narrative: Kaspa is no longer “the fast PoW coin.” It can now support DeFi, NFTs, native assets, privacy applications, and verifiable computation. This materially expands the addressable market and the types of capital that might eventually flow to KAS.
Higher on-chain demand potential: As applications grow, users need KAS for transaction fees, token minting, covenant interactions, and network security. Increased usage creates genuine, organic token demand rather than pure speculative demand.
Improved miner economics over time: Growing fee revenue from application activity reduces miners’ dependence on block rewards alone — supporting network security even as emissions continue declining.
Developer magnet in a risk-on environment: When capital rotates back into altcoins, projects with strong technical foundations combined with newly added programmability have historically attracted disproportionate attention. Kaspa’s “scalable programmable PoW L1” narrative is more compelling than its pre-Toccata “fast payments chain” positioning.
Grok’s View – Bottom Line
The AI analysis summary captured in the image frames the situation precisely:
“Kaspa’s ~38% YTD decline is mostly a reflection of the difficult 2026 crypto market rather than a rejection of the technology. The Toccata upgrade successfully delivered native programmability, KRC-20 tokens, and ZK capabilities while keeping Kaspa’s high-throughput Proof-of-Work design intact. The real test now is adoption. If developers build meaningful applications and the broader altcoin market turns positive, Kaspa is far better positioned than it was as a pure payments chain. Until then, price is likely to remain sensitive to overall market liquidity and risk appetite.”
This framing is accurate and useful. The -38% decline is primarily a macro and market structure story — not a Kaspa technology failure. Toccata delivered what it promised. The question now is whether the ecosystem can attract the developer activity and application adoption that would translate the technical upgrade into sustained on-chain demand.
Source: Grok analysis screenshot
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Binance will delist six tokens—ACX, HFT, PIVX, PYR, VANRY, and VIC—on August 17, 2026.The announcement triggered sharp sell-offs, with losses of up to 23% across the affected tokens.Binance said the removals followed its regular listing review process.Users should withdraw or convert affected tokens before the delisting deadline.
Binance has announced the delisting of six cryptocurrencies from its platform. All spot trading pairs for the following tokens will be removed at 03:00 UTC on August 17, 2026:
Token Symbol Across Protocol ACX Hashflow HFT PIVX PIVX Vulcan Forged PYR Vanar Chain VANRY Viction VIC
Full official announcement: binance.com
Why Binance Is Delisting These Tokens
In its official notice, Binance stated that it regularly reviews all listed digital assets to ensure they continue meeting the exchange’s listing standards — covering factors including trading volume, liquidity, development activity, team transparency, and regulatory compliance.
When a project no longer satisfies these criteria — or when market conditions shift in ways that reduce the token’s suitability for the platform — Binance may decide to delist. The stated goal is to protect users and maintain a healthier trading environment by focusing the platform’s liquidity and attention on projects with stronger ongoing fundamentals.
Binance did not cite specific reasons for each individual token’s removal — which is standard practice for the exchange’s periodic delisting announcements. The affected projects span a range of categories: cross-chain bridging infrastructure (ACX), DEX aggregation (HFT), privacy (PIVX), gaming (PYR), Layer-1 infrastructure (VANRY and VIC) — suggesting this is a broad liquidity and activity review rather than a targeted action against a specific category.
Market Reaction — All Six Tokens Decline Sharply
The delisting announcement triggered immediate selling pressure across all six affected tokens — as holders rushed to exit positions before liquidity conditions deteriorate further:
Binance Delisting Tokens Prices on 03 Aug 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
PIVX and PYR have seen the sharpest declines — both down more than -22% — reflecting either the highest concentration of Binance-dependent liquidity for these specific tokens or the greatest seller urgency among their respective holder bases.
ACX and VANRY have held up relatively better in the immediate 24-hour window — though both remain significantly lower and the selling pressure is likely to continue as the August 17 deadline approaches and holders continue exiting.
The pattern here is consistent with prior Binance delisting events — the immediate 24-hour decline is rarely the full extent of the move. As the deadline approaches and liquidity dries up on the platform, further downward pressure typically follows as remaining holders exit into an increasingly thin order book.
What Binance Delisting Means in Practice
For holders unfamiliar with the mechanics of an exchange delisting — here is what happens and when:
Trading pairs removed: All spot trading pairs for the six tokens are removed at 03:00 UTC on August 17, 2026. After this point, you cannot buy or sell these tokens on Binance.
Open orders cancelled automatically: Any open limit orders, stop-loss orders, or other pending orders will be cancelled automatically at the delisting time. You will not need to cancel them manually — but you also will not receive execution on them.
Deposits and withdrawals phased out: Binance will phase out deposit and withdrawal support for these tokens on a separate schedule — typically announced after the trading delisting. Once withdrawal support ends, you will no longer be able to move tokens from Binance to an external wallet through the standard interface.
The critical window: The period between now and August 17 is when you have the most options and the best liquidity. Acting early gives you better prices, more time to troubleshoot technical issues, and more choices about where to move funds.
What Holders Must Do — Action Guide
If you hold any of these six tokens on Binance, take one of the following actions before August 17:
Option 1 — Withdraw to a personal wallet:Transfer your tokens to a self-custody wallet (hardware wallet or software wallet) where you retain full control. This preserves your position if you believe the token has long-term value outside of Binance’s platform.
Option 2 — Convert to other assets:Sell the delisted tokens on Binance while liquidity and trading remain available — converting into stablecoins (USDT, USDC), Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other assets you wish to hold. This is the simplest approach for holders who do not have strong conviction in the individual token’s long-term prospects.
Option 3 — Transfer to another exchange:If the token is listed on other centralised exchanges (Bybit, OKX, KuCoin, Gate.io, etc.) — you may be able to withdraw from Binance and continue trading on another platform. Check availability before initiating the transfer.
The recommendation: Act well before August 17 — not on August 17 itself. The days immediately before a delisting deadline typically see increased withdrawal volumes and potential network congestion, making early action significantly more reliable than last-minute exits.
The Broader Context — Binance’s Periodic Delisting Process
Binance conducts periodic reviews of its token listings and has delisted dozens of tokens over the years as part of its ongoing effort to maintain listing quality. This is not an unusual or emergency event — it is part of the exchange’s standard governance process.
For the affected tokens, the Binance delisting represents a significant liquidity reduction — Binance is typically the highest-volume venue for many smaller and mid-cap tokens, and losing access to its user base materially reduces the token’s accessible market. Whether the individual projects can sustain sufficient liquidity and community engagement through other venues will determine their longer-term trajectories after August 17.
For holders, the delisting is a reminder of the custodial risk embedded in keeping assets on centralised exchanges — a theme we have covered extensively in the context of the BitMartshutdown and BitMEX closure in last month. Self-custody remains the only approach that fully eliminates the risk of an exchange decision affecting your access to your assets.
Bottom Line
Binance’s delisting of ACX, HFT, PIVX, PYR, VANRY, and VIC on August 17, 2026 has triggered immediate double-digit declines across all six tokens — with PIVX and PYR down more than -22% in the first 24 hours. Holders have approximately two weeks to withdraw to self-custody, convert to other assets, or transfer to alternative exchanges before trading pairs are removed and open orders are automatically cancelled.
The most important action is the most simple one: do not wait until August 17.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Whales accumulated over 240M ADA in the last five days, supporting a strong price rebound.ADA has broken out of a falling wedge, with a technical target of $0.4059 (+113% upside).The breakout follows the earlier TD Sequential buy signal, with ADA now up about 27% from its June low.
Cardano’s current move has the specific ingredients that separate a sustained recovery from a temporary bounce: whale accumulation at scale, a confirmed pattern breakout on the daily chart, and a clear measured move target backed by the pattern’s structure. Here is the full picture.
ADA is trading at approximately $0.1891 — up +9.42% in 24 hours, +14.58% over 7 days, and +10.41% over 30 days — with a market cap of approximately $6.9 billion. The recovery from the $0.1490 TD Sequential buy signal level identified on June 25 represents approximately +27% appreciation in approximately five weeks — a meaningful move that the current breakout suggests may be the early stage of a larger recovery rather than the completion of it.
Cardano (ADA) Price on 02 Aug 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
The Setup That Got Us Here — TD Sequential Buy Signal at $0.1490
When ADA was trading near $0.1490 on June 25, 2026 — during one of the more depressed periods for the token in the current cycle — we identified a TD Sequential buy signal on the daily chart and flagged the level as a potential accumulation opportunity.
The TD Sequential buy signal — a count-of-9 indicator that identifies statistical seller exhaustion — appeared at a time when ADA was under maximum pessimism pressure. As we covered in that analysis, the signal had a documented track record on ADA specifically and was appearing at a price level consistent with broader on-chain and valuation metrics pointing toward a bottom.
The subsequent recovery to the current $0.1891 — approximately +27% from the signal level — has validated that initial read. But the more important question now is whether the current falling wedge breakout represents the continuation of the recovery the TD Sequential identified, or simply a short-term bounce within a still-bearish structure. The whale accumulation data and the pattern breakout both argue for the former.
Signal 1 — Whale Accumulation: 240 Million ADA in Five Days
Santiment data shared by analyst @alicharts provides the most concrete on-chain evidence of what is driving ADA’s current move:
240 million ADA accumulated in five days — at an average price somewhere in the $0.155–$0.185 range as the accumulation built — represents a deliberate, large-scale buying campaign by participants with meaningful conviction rather than casual retail dip-buying.
The specific whale accumulation metric from Santiment measures wallets above a certain size threshold that are actively adding to positions — filtering out smaller retail activity to isolate the behaviour of participants whose position changes are large enough to influence market structure. When this metric shows 240 million tokens added in a five-day window, it reflects systematic accumulation rather than opportunistic retail buying.
ADA Held By Whales/Source: @alicharts (X)
The correlation with price action is direct and visible on the chart — the ~22% price surge that accompanied this accumulation period reflects the supply absorption dynamic: large buyers removing 240 million ADA from the available liquid supply over five days reduces the float available for sellers, gradually pushing price higher as demand exceeds available supply at progressively higher prices.
Signal 2 — Falling Wedge Breakout on the Daily Chart
The technical development that gives the current ADA move a specific, level-based framework is the daily falling wedge breakout — one of the most consistently bullish reversal patterns in technical analysis when it appears after an extended downtrend.
The falling wedge structure:
ADA’s daily chart shows a clear falling wedge — two downward-sloping converging trendlines defining the corrective channel from the prior cycle’s highs. The pattern compressed price action over multiple months, with each successive lower high and lower low reflecting diminishing selling momentum as the correction approached its natural exhaustion point.
The breakout:
Cardano (ADA) Daily Chart – Coinsprobe/Source: Tradingview
ADA has cleared the upper resistance trendline near $0.1890 — the level that had been capping every recovery attempt during the wedge formation. This breakout above the descending resistance is the specific technical event that activates the pattern’s measured move.
The confirmation sequence to watch:
For the breakout to be confirmed rather than simply attempted, the textbook sequence requires:
Step 1: Breakout above the upper resistance trendline — completed near $0.1890
Step 2: A local high followed by a pullback — currently developing as price tests the breakout level
Step 3: A successful retest of the $0.1890 breakout trendline as support — the level to watch in the coming sessions
If the retest holds — with price pulling back to approximately $0.1890 and bouncing rather than breaking below — it converts the initial breakout into a confirmed structural shift and activates the measured move target.
The Target — $0.4059 and What It Means
The falling wedge measured move — calculated by projecting the pattern’s height (the distance between its upper and lower trendlines at the widest point) above the breakout level — produces a target of approximately $0.4059.
From the current price of $0.1891, reaching $0.4059 represents approximately +113% additional upside — more than doubling from current levels. This is not a speculative stretch target invented to create excitement — it is the standard technical measured move calculation from a pattern whose prior iterations on ADA and comparable assets have produced comparable magnitude moves when the breakout confirms.
Bullish Scenario — Retest Holds, $0.4059 Activates
ADA pulls back to retest the $0.1890 breakout trendline — holds above it with a sustained close — and resumes the upward move with the pattern’s measured move now confirmed. With 240 million ADA absorbed by whales in the accumulation phase, the supply overhang that previously capped recovery attempts has been meaningfully reduced. A confirmed retest opens the path toward the $0.4059 measured move target as the primary destination.
Bearish Scenario — Below $0.1890
A sustained daily close below the $0.1890 breakout trendline would invalidate the falling wedge breakout — suggesting the pattern has not fully resolved and that the recovery from the TD Sequential $0.1490 signal may be completing rather than beginning a second leg. In this scenario, the $0.1490 prior signal level becomes the key support reference to watch.
Bottom Line
Cardano’s recovery from the TD Sequential buy signal at $0.1490 on June 25 has now produced a falling wedge breakout on the daily chart — supported by 240 million ADA in whale accumulation over five days and confirmed by a sustained close above the $0.1890 upper resistance trendline. The measured move target of $0.4059 represents approximately +113% upside from current levels if the breakout retest holds.
The setup is level-based and clear: watch $0.1890 as the retest level that must hold for the bullish structure to remain intact, and watch for the volume-confirmed close above it that would signal the measured move toward $0.4059 is developing.ADA up 14% in 7 days as 240M tokens absorbed by whales — daily falling wedge breakout near $0.1890 projects $0.4059 target. Full breakdown and key levels here.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
UNI trades at $4.23, up 32.3% over the past month following the activation of the v4 fee switch and buy-and-burn mechanism.106,000 UNI was burned on July 29, marking the third-largest single-day burn in the token's history.On-chain activity remains strong, with new addresses, active users, and whale transactions all rising.A confirmed breakout targets $5.88, offering around 40% upside if momentum continues.
Uniswap’s v4 fee switch activation is one of the most significant fundamental events in DeFi protocol history — a governance decision years in the making that has now translated into immediate, measurable on-chain consequences: real token burns, sustained new user growth, elevated whale activity, and a confirmed technical breakout that is holding its retest. Here is the complete picture.
UNI is trading at $4.23 — up +3.06% in 24 hours, +15.72% over 7 days, and +32.33% over 30 days — with a market cap of approximately $2.64 billion. The token ran from approximately $3.83 to $4.54 between July 29–31 — a +19% move — on the back of fee switch activation and burn mechanism launch, before easing to the current $4.23 as the market digests the catalyst.
UNI Price on 02 August 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
The v4 Fee Switch Goes Live
After years of governance debate and community discussion, Uniswap’s v4 fee switch has officially activated — meaning a portion of the protocol’s trading fees now flow toward UNI token holders rather than exclusively to liquidity providers.
The fee switch has been one of the most consequential unresolved questions in DeFi governance for multiple years — with billions of dollars in cumulative Uniswap fees generated without any direct value flowing to UNI holders. The activation changes that relationship permanently: the protocol is now a revenue-sharing asset rather than a governance-only token.
Simultaneously, the buy-and-burn mechanism went live — with fee revenue being used to purchase UNI from the open market and burn it, creating direct deflationary pressure tied to protocol usage volume. The larger Uniswap’s trading volume, the more UNI is purchased and burned — mechanically linking protocol success to token supply reduction.
As we covered in our Uniswap $92.5M monthly fees and broadening wedge article — Uniswap already generates approximately $92.55M in monthly protocol fees and $51.94B in monthly DEX volume. With the buy-and-burn now active, this fee flow is being partially redirected into open-market UNI purchases — creating sustained, mechanical demand that did not exist before July 29.
Third Highest UNI Burn Day on Record: 106,000 UNI
The burn data from July 29, 2026 confirms the fee switch is generating immediate, material token deflation:
Chart1 : UNI Burn History By Chain | Source: dune
106,000 UNI burned in a single day — the third highest single-day burn event in Uniswap’s history — on the first day the mechanism was active. The breakdown is revealing: Robinhood Chain contributing 62,000 of the 106,000 burned (approximately 58% of the total) reflects the explosive trading volume that chain has generated since its July 1 launch, which we documented in our Robinhood Chain beats BSC in DEX volume article.
The burn history chart shows the July 29 spike as one of the most prominent in the 2026 dataset — with recent weeks showing consistently elevated burn activity as Robinhood Chain’s trading volume contributes to the mechanism at scale. This is not a one-off spike — it is the beginning of a sustained deflationary mechanism that will compound as long as Uniswap maintains its DEX volume leadership.
UNI On-Chain Activity Holds for Two Consecutive Days
The most analytically significant data point from the fee switch activation is not the first day’s price reaction — it is that the on-chain response held for a second consecutive day.
Chart 2: $UNI Fee Switch — Price, New Addresses, Active Addresses | Source: Santiment
Santiment data from July 24 to August 1, 2026:
Why two days matters more than one:
A one-day catalyst pop — price surges on announcement, activity spikes briefly, then normalises — is a familiar pattern that fades within 24–48 hours as the initial excitement dissipates. The data shows something different:
New addresses at 510 on July 30 then 582 on July 31 — holding above double the July baseline for a second consecutive day. This is not a spike that faded — it is a step-change that held.
Active addresses at 2,341 then 2,457 — the highest readings of the entire month of July — also holding for two days. Month highs on two consecutive days is not noise.
Whale transactions ($100K+) at 142 on July 30 — the busiest day of the month bar one — as large holders moved in simultaneously with the fee switch activation.
The critical observation: The on-chain step-up held while price started cooling. Price peaked at $4.54 and began easing back toward $4.07 — but new addresses, active addresses, and whale activity remained elevated. When on-chain fundamentals hold while price cools, it is a signal that the catalyst produced genuine adoption rather than a temporary speculative bid. The fee switch flipped the fees — and the chain flipped on too.
Technical Analysis — Breakout, Retest, and $5.88 Target
As we analysed in our Uniswap broadening wedge article — UNI was forming a right-angled descending broadening wedge with the lower support at $2.317 and the upper descending resistance trendline as the breakout trigger.
Chart 3: UNI/USDT Daily | Source: TradingView, Nilesh-CNPB, August 2, 2026
What the daily chart now shows:
The breakout from the upper resistance trendline near $4.03 has occurred — with price pushing up to a local high of approximately $4.57 before pulling back to retest the broken resistance level. The retest near $4.03 — the “Breakout and Retest @4.03” label visible on the chart — has held, with UNI now trading above it at $4.23.
A reclaim of the $4.57 local high — clearing the level UNI reached on the initial fee switch breakout — would confirm the retest has held and the breakout is developing into a sustained move toward the $5.88 measured target, representing approximately +40% additional upside from the current $4.23.
The support to hold: The breakout trendline near $4.03 must continue to act as support for the bullish structure to remain intact. A sustained daily close below $4.03 would suggest the retest has failed and the breakout requires reassessment.
Why This Setup Is More Complete Than Most
The UNI setup at this moment combines three layers that rarely align simultaneously:
Fundamental catalyst: The v4 fee switch activation is a permanent structural change — not a one-time announcement or partnership. Fee revenue now flows to UNI holders and the buy-and-burn mechanism. This changes UNI’s investment case from governance token to revenue-sharing asset permanently.
On-chain confirmation: Two consecutive days of elevated new addresses, active addresses, and whale activity — with metrics holding while price cooled — confirms the fee switch produced genuine adoption acceleration rather than a speculative bid that fades.
Technical confirmation: A confirmed breakout from a multi-month descending broadening wedge, a successful retest of the breakout level, and a clear measured move target at $5.88 — with the retest level ($4.03) providing the specific invalidation floor.
Bottom Line
Uniswap’s fee switch activation on July 29 produced the third highest single-day UNI burn on record (106,000 UNI), a +19% price run from $3.83 to $4.54, and — most significantly — a two-day sustained step-up in new addresses, active addresses, and whale activity that held even as price began cooling. The daily chart confirms the breakout from the right-angled descending broadening wedge has retested the $4.03 trendline and held.
From here: a reclaim of $4.57 activates the $5.88 measured target (+40%). The $4.03 breakout trendline is the support that keeps the structure intact. The fee switch has permanently changed what UNI is — the chart and on-chain data are beginning to reflect that.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
SHIB trades near $0.000004949, up 6.6% in 24 hours and 14.9% over the past month.The weekly chart is forming a falling wedge, similar to the pattern that preceded SHIB's 314% rally in 2024.A confirmed breakout could target $0.00003343, implying nearly 600% upside.$0.00001216 is the key resistance bulls need to reclaim to confirm the breakout.
Six years ago, an anonymous developer named Ryoshi launched Shiba Inu as a “Dogecoin killer” experiment with a simple dog meme and zero initial price. Today, $SHIB has a $2.91 billion market cap, a Layer-2 blockchain, a decentralised exchange, and one of the largest holder communities in crypto — and its weekly chart is showing the same bottoming structure that preceded its previous major rally.
$SHIB is trading at approximately $0.000004949 — up +6.60% in 24 hours and +14.92% over 30 days — with a market cap of approximately $2.91 billion. Despite the recent recovery, SHIB remains -28.30% year-to-date — reflecting the extended correction that the weekly chart is now framing as a potential bottoming opportunity rather than a continued structural decline.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price on 01 August 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
Happy 6th Birthday, Shiba Inu
August 2020 — August 2026. Six years since Ryoshi launched $SHIB as an anonymous experiment in decentralised, community-driven cryptocurrency — with no venture capital, no pre-sale, no team allocation, and a stated ambition to prove that a community could build something from nothing.
Shib Turns 6 Today/Source: @Shibtoken (X)
What that community built over six years:
ShibaSwap — a decentralised exchange that gave the SHIB ecosystem its first native DeFi infrastructure and allowed holders to stake, swap, and earn within the ecosystem rather than depending entirely on centralised exchanges.
Shibarium — a Layer-2 blockchain built on top of Ethereum that brought fast, low-cost transactions to the SHIB ecosystem, enabling the kind of application development that was prohibitively expensive on Ethereum mainnet.
The ShibArmy — consistently one of the largest holder communities in the crypto space — a distributed, global collective that has sustained engagement, development contributions, and ecosystem building through multiple bear markets without the financial support structures that VC-backed projects rely on.
What started as a meme is now a functioning ecosystem with multiple products, an active developer community, and six years of uninterrupted operation. The anniversary is worth acknowledging on its own merits — but the weekly chart makes it more interesting than a simple birthday milestone.
The Weekly Chart — A Familiar Bottoming Structure Returns
On the weekly timeframe, SHIB is displaying a bottoming structure that closely resembles the one seen in late 2023 to early 2024.
Back then, after an 854-day correction from the 2021 cycle top of $0.00008854, SHIB broke out of a falling wedge and delivered a 314% rally.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) Weekly Chart – Coinsprobe/Source: Tradingview
A similar setup is now forming. After an 875-day correction, SHIB has once again carved out a falling wedge pattern. A successful breakout from this structure in the coming weeks could open the door to higher levels.
The measured technical target sits near $0.00003343 — approximately 600% above current prices. This target also aligns with a potential larger cup-and-handle formation developing on the higher timeframe.
For confirmation of bullish momentum, traders will be watching for a reclaim of the 100-period moving average currently near $0.00001216. Until that level is reclaimed, the current zone continues to present an attractive area for accumulation or dollar-cost averaging (DCA) for longer-term holders.
The Key Confirmation Level — 100 MA at $0.00001216
At the current price of $0.000004949, the 100 MA sits approximately +146% above the current price. A sustained weekly close above the 100 MA would be the specific technical confirmation that the falling wedge has resolved to the upside and the expansion phase is underway — transitioning the setup from accumulation to confirmed breakout.
Until the 100 MA is reclaimed, the current price zone — below both the 100 MA and the falling wedge’s upper resistance — represents what the chart identifies as an accumulation zone — the phase where longer-term, conviction-driven holders build positions before the pattern’s resolution becomes visible to the broader market.
The 21-day difference in correction duration between the two setups is negligible at the weekly timeframe level — the structural parallel is the more significant observation.
Bottom Line
Shiba Inu’s sixth anniversary arrives alongside one of the more structurally interesting weekly chart setups the token has produced since the 2023–2024 falling wedge that preceded a +314% rally. An 875-day correction — nearly identical in duration to the prior 854-day correction — has carved the same falling wedge pattern on the same weekly timeframe, with a measured move target of $0.00003343 that also aligns with a developing cup-and-handle on the higher timeframe.
The immediate focus is the 100 MA at $0.00001216 — the confirmation level that transforms the current accumulation zone into a confirmed breakout. Until that level is reclaimed, the zone below it represents the accumulation phase that, in the prior cycle, preceded the pattern’s full measured move resolution.
Six years of surviving every bear market, every regulatory challenge, and every memecoin competitor — and the weekly chart is building a case that the seventh year might be the most constructive one yet.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
An Ansem-linked wallet moved 491M ANSEM (~$88.8M) to a BitGo cold wallet, fueling Tier-1 exchange listing speculation.A falling wedge breakout targets $0.296, implying over 60% upside.$0.1599 is the key support level; losing it would invalidate the bullish setup.
$ANSEM is building a specific technical and on-chain case for a second leg higher after cooling from its July 6 all-time high. The BitGo cold storage transfer adds an institutional custody dimension that does not typically accompany pure retail memecoin activity — while the falling wedge breakout and retest provides the technical framework for understanding where the price goes next.
$ANSEM is trading at approximately $0.1801 — down -1.95% in 24 hours but up +10.05% over 7 days and +8.98% over 30 days — with a market cap of approximately $179 million. The token reached its all-time high near $0.45 on July 6, 2026 — when its market cap briefly touched approximately $447 million — before correcting to current levels as profit-taking and broader market weakness absorbed the initial momentum.
As we covered in our $ANSEM ATH and $205M holdings article the token has navigated a full cycle from its parabolic early July run to the current base-building phase. The question now is whether the falling wedge breakout represents the beginning of the next leg or a false move that fades.
ANSEM Token Price on 01 August 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
491M ANSEM Tokens Moved to BitGo Cold Storage
On-chain analysis firm StalkHQ identified a significant custody movement: a wallet associated with @blknoiz06 (Ansem) transferred 491 million $ANSEM tokens — valued at approximately $88.83 million — into a BitGo cold storage vault.
Ansem moved 491M $ANSEM into Bitgo/Source: @StalkHQ (X)
What BitGo cold storage means:
BitGo is one of the most widely used institutional-grade digital asset custodians in the industry — preferred by major centralised exchanges, large funds, and high-net-worth participants specifically for its security infrastructure and regulatory compliance framework. Moving a large token position into BitGo cold storage is not a retail action — it is the kind of custody arrangement that institutional holders and serious long-term holders use to secure significant positions against operational risk.
The two interpretations being discussed:
Treasury management and security: The most straightforward interpretation is that this represents routine security management — moving a large, valuable ANSEM position into a more secure custody arrangement following the token’s ATH run. As the position grew in dollar value to $88.83 million during the ATH period, upgrading its custody security would be a logical operational step regardless of any trading intent.
Tier-1 exchange preparation: The community discussion centres on a more speculative interpretation — that BitGo’s role as custodian for major centralised exchanges could signal preparation for a potential Tier-1 exchange listing. Several major exchanges use BitGo as their institutional custody partner, and moving tokens to a BitGo vault is sometimes a procedural step in exchange listing workflows.
The honest assessment: Neither interpretation can be confirmed from the on-chain data alone. A large transfer to BitGo cold storage is consistent with both pure security management and exchange preparation — and the on-chain data itself does not distinguish between them. What it does confirm is that 491 million $ANSEM tokens are now in institutional-grade custody, reducing their immediate liquid supply.
Falling Wedge Breakout and Retest
The 4-hour chart is providing the specific technical framework that gives the current setup a defined entry, target, and invalidation:
The falling wedge pattern:
Following the correction from the $0.45 all-time high, $ANSEM formed a falling wedge on the 4-hour chart — defined by two downward-sloping converging trendlines, where the descending upper resistance and the descending lower support narrow toward an apex. As we covered in our DOGE falling wedge article — falling wedges are consistently one of the more reliable bullish reversal patterns when they appear after an extended downtrend, reflecting diminishing selling momentum within a compressed range.
The breakout and retest sequence:
Price cleared the upper resistance trendline near $0.1756 — the specific level that had been capping every recovery attempt during the wedge formation. The subsequent successful retest of $0.1756 as support — where price pulled back to the broken resistance and held rather than falling through — is the technical confirmation that converts the initial breakout from a potential false move into a confirmed structural shift.
This breakout-retest-hold sequence is the cleanest technical confirmation available for a pattern breakout — the market has tested whether the broken resistance has become support, and it has held.
ANSEM 4H Chart – Coinsprobe/Source: Tradingview
Current position:
$ANSEM is now holding above the $0.18 area following the retest confirmation — sitting above the breakout level with the pattern’s measured move activated.
The $0.2959 target:
The falling wedge measured move — calculated by projecting the height of the pattern’s widest point above the breakout level — points to approximately $0.2959 as the primary upside target. From the current price of $0.1801, reaching $0.2959 represents approximately +64.3% additional upside — a meaningful move but one consistent with the pattern’s dimensions and with the broader $ANSEM volatility profile.
The $0.1599 invalidation:
A sustained close below $0.1599 — the key downside support zone — would break the breakout structure and signal the pattern has failed. In this scenario, the retest that appeared to confirm the breakout would be revealed as a false move, and price would risk returning to the pre-wedge range below $0.1756.
Bullish Scenario — Breakout Continues to $0.2959
$ANSEM holds above the $0.1756 breakout level — confirmed by the completed retest — and begins building momentum toward the measured move target of $0.2959. The BitGo cold storage transfer reduces immediate liquid supply while the pattern confirms genuine buyer conviction. If a Tier-1 listing catalyst materialises, this target could be reached significantly faster than the technical measured move alone would suggest.
Bearish Scenario — Below $0.1599
A sustained close below $0.1599 invalidates the falling wedge breakout — suggesting the retest was a false confirmation and the underlying selling pressure from the ATH correction has not yet fully resolved. In this scenario, the pre-breakout range becomes the next reference zone as the pattern fails to develop as projected.
Bottom Line
$ANSEM at $0.1801 is presenting a specific two-signal setup: a confirmed 4-hour falling wedge breakout with a completed retest at $0.1756 — targeting $0.2959 — and a 491 million token transfer into BitGo institutional cold storage that the community is interpreting as either routine security management or potential exchange listing preparation.
The technical setup is level-based and clear: $0.1756 must hold as confirmed support to keep the breakout valid, and $0.2959 is the measured move destination. The $0.1599 support is the specific invalidation that would require a reassessment of the bullish thesis.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Bitcoin trades near $63,753, up 8.67% over the past month as it enters August.August has been Bitcoin's weakest month, posting losses in each of the last four years.Analyst expects a potential dip toward the $58K–$62K range in early August.The projected scenario points to a rebound toward $80K–$92K after the correction.
Bitcoin is entering August with the strongest 30-day performance it has shown in months — but entering August with positive momentum has not historically protected the asset from the month’s consistent pattern of negative returns. Four consecutive years of August declines averaging -10% creates a seasonal context that cannot be dismissed, regardless of the month’s starting conditions.
Bitcoin is trading at approximately $63,753 — up +8.67% over 30 days — with a market cap of approximately $1.27 trillion. The current price sits just above the horizontal reference level visible on the chart at approximately $64,723.45 — the level from which the analyst’s projected path begins its next move.
Bitcoin BTC Price on 31 July 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
The August Seasonal Pattern — Four Years of Consistent Declines
August has been the single most reliably negative month in Bitcoin’s recent seasonal calendar — not by a small margin, but consistently and significantly:
YearAugust Return2022-13.9%2023-11.3%2024-8.7%2025-6.5%4-Year Average~-10%
Several observations from this data are worth noting:
The pattern has been consistent without exception — not three out of four years, not occasionally — but every single August across the past four years has produced a negative return. This is not a small sample size coincidence — it represents a persistent seasonal dynamic that has appeared in different macro environments, different Bitcoin cycle phases, and different regulatory contexts.
The magnitude has been significant — the average -10% decline is not a rounding error. At the current price of $64,723, a -10% August would take Bitcoin to approximately $58,250 — which aligns almost precisely with the lower end of the analyst’s projected bottom range.
The trend in declines has been improving — each successive August has been slightly less negative than the prior year (-13.9% → -11.3% → -8.7% → -6.5%), suggesting the seasonal headwind may be gradually diminishing. Whether 2026 continues this trend toward a smaller decline or finally breaks the negative pattern entirely is the question August will answer.
Bitcoin — Monthly Returns (USD)/Source: coinsprobe.com
The Analyst’s Projected Path — $58K–$62K Scenario
Analyst @LP_NXT has published a detailed chart projecting Bitcoin’s likely price path for early-to-mid August — and the track record of this analyst’s prior dotted-path projections on the same chart adds credibility to the current scenario beyond a simple price guess.
Chart: Bitcoin price projection — @LP_NXT | Source: TradingView
Reading the chart:
The dotted projection line on the chart shows a specific, sequenced path from the current ~$64,723 level:
Phase 1 — Decline to the $58K–$62K bottom zone:
The projected path moves lower from current levels toward a bottom in the $58,000–$62,000 range — marked approximately by the green dot on the chart, which sits in the mid-to-upper $56,000–$58,000 area as the projected low.
This bottom zone aligns with two independent reference points: the analyst’s price path projection and the four-year August seasonal average of approximately -10% from current levels.
Phase 2 — Bounce from the bottom:
Following the bottom formation in the $58K–$62K zone, the dotted path shows a recovery bounce toward higher levels — with the projection moving back above the $66,000 horizontal reference line (marked by the purple dot at approximately $68,000–$69,000) before continuing higher.
Phase 3 — Recovery toward $80K–$92K:
The full projected path extends toward the $80,000–$92,000 range — with the cyan/teal dot at approximately $91,000–$92,000 representing the analyst’s extended upside target following the August bottom. The dotted projection shows a path that reaches this zone through a series of higher highs and higher lows following the initial bottom.
The track record context:
The analyst specifically noted that prior updates on the same chart showed price following the dotted projection path with notable accuracy — giving the current projection more credibility than a first-time forecast. When a specific chart projection has tracked correctly across multiple prior updates — with actual price action following the dotted path through its various twists and turns — subsequent projections on the same chart carry meaningful analytical weight.
Two Scenarios for August 2026
Historical Pattern Repeats — Bottom at $58K–$62K
Bitcoin follows its four-consecutive-year August pattern — declining approximately 10% from current levels toward the $58,000–$62,000 zone that both the seasonal data and @LP_NXT’s projection identify as the likely bottom range. This scenario would produce a decline from $64,723 to approximately $58,000–$62,000 before the projected recovery begins building toward the $80K–$92K extended target.
If this plays out, the bottom represents one of the more significant accumulation opportunities in the current cycle — aligning with multiple independent signals we have documented throughout July 2026 including the MVRV 5th percentile, the Realized Profit vs. Loss crossover approaching, and the Structural Market Bands support zone.
Pattern Breaks — August Defies Seasonal Weakness
Bitcoin defies the four-year seasonal pattern — holding above $62,000 and pushing through the $66,000–$69,000 resistance zone that the purple dot represents on the analyst’s chart. This scenario — while less consistent with historical data — becomes more plausible in the context of the improving macro environment (cooling CPI, approaching rate cuts) and the convergent on-chain bottom signals that suggest accumulation demand is building.
A sustained move above $69,000 (the STH Cost Basis) would be the specific confirmation that August 2026 is breaking the seasonal pattern — and would accelerate the path toward the $80K–$92K targets identified on @LP_NXT’s extended projection.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin enters August 2026 with the best 30-day performance it has shown in months — and with a seasonal headwind that has produced negative returns in every single August for the past four years at an average of -10%. The analyst’s projected path maps a specific scenario consistent with that seasonal pattern: a bottom in the $58K–$62K range in early-to-mid August, followed by a recovery toward $80K–$92K.
Whether August 2026 follows the historical pattern or breaks it will be one of the most important directional questions of the current cycle. The $58K–$62K zone — where seasonal data and analyst projection converge — is the specific price area that will define the month’s significance in either direction.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Coinkite disclosed a firmware flaw that weakened seed generation on certain Coldcard devices.Around 594.48 BTC (~$38.2M) was moved from nearly 500 wallets, with researchers linking the activity to the entropy issue.Firmware updates do not secure existing seeds—users must create a new seed and move their funds.Users who added 50+ dice rolls or used a strong BIP-39 passphrase face significantly lower risk.
URGENT SECURITY ADVISORY — If you generated a seed on a Coldcard Mk3, Mk4, Mk5, or Q device before the latest firmware hotfix, your funds may be at risk. Read the full article and follow the migration steps immediately.
What Happened — The $38M On-Chain Sweep
Lookonchain reported that more than $38 million worth of Bitcoin — specifically 594.48 BTC — was transferred from approximately 500 wallets to a consolidating address beginning with bc1qnk… in a tight window across a small number of blocks.
The characteristics of the drained wallets are significant:
Predominantly single-signature wallets — no multisig protectionSeveral wallets had been dormant for years — suggesting the sweep targeted pre-existing vulnerable seeds rather than recently active walletsThe transfers occurred in a coordinated, near-simultaneous pattern — consistent with automated sweeping of seeds that could be enumerated or derived within a reduced search space
While Coinkite has not officially confirmed that the entropy flaw caused this specific sweep, the combination of timing — the advisory and the on-chain sweep appearing in close proximity — and the wallet characteristics has led security researchers to prominently identify the low-entropy seed generation vulnerability as the most plausible technical explanation.
Coldcard hacker sending stolen BTC/@lookonchain (X)
The Technical Flaw — What Went Wrong With Coldcard Entropy
Source: Coinkite technical backgrounder — blog.coinkite.com/entropy-technical-backgrounder/
Coinkite’s technical advisory reveals a sophisticated chain of bugs that prevented the hardware’s True Random Number Generator (TRNG) from properly contributing randomness to seed generation across affected firmware versions.
The core failure:
Seed generation — the process of creating the cryptographic foundation of a Bitcoin wallet — incorrectly relied on a software-based Pseudo-Random Number Generator (PRNG) from MicroPython rather than the intended hardware RNG. The root cause was a build configuration and preprocessor check that failed to enforce the hardware RNG path — meaning the software fallback was silently used without any visible indication to the user that the hardware entropy source was not contributing as intended.
The practical impact on security:
DeviceEffective SecurityIntended SecurityMk3~40 bits128 bitsMk4, Mk5, Q~72 bits (partial improvement from secure elements)128 bits
40 bits means the effective number of possible seeds was approximately 1 trillion — an enormous number by everyday standards, but within the reach of well-resourced attackers using modern computing hardware. 72 bits is significantly more secure but still well below the 128-bit standard that makes brute-force attacks computationally infeasible with foreseeable technology.
The gap between 40 or 72 bits and 128 bits is not a minor technical detail — it is the difference between a seed that is practically unbreakable and one that a sophisticated adversary with sufficient resources could enumerate within a feasible timeframe.
Which Devices and Firmware Are Affected
Source: Coinkite advisory — blog.coinkite.com/coldcard-mk3-seed-generation-warning/
Mk3 devices — HIGH RISK:
Seeds generated on firmware 4.0.1 (released March 2021) through the final supported version 5.0.3 are considered at risk. Mk3 devices with affected firmware had approximately 40-bit effective entropy — the most severe exposure in the affected device range.
Mk4, Mk5, and Q devices — ELEVATED RISK:
Seeds generated on any firmware before the latest hotfix also had reduced entropy of approximately 72 bits — meaningfully better than Mk3 but still significantly below the 128-bit security standard.
Unaffected devices:
TAPSIGNER, OPENDIME, and SATSCARD are not affected — they use different codebases and are not subject to this specific vulnerability.
Lower risk users:
Users who added at least 50 independent, private dice rolls during seed generation — which adds external entropy that the device cannot reduce — or who use a strong, unique BIP-39 passphrase face significantly lower risk. The passphrase is processed separately from the device’s internal entropy and adds protection even if the device’s own RNG was compromised.
What You Must Do — Step-by-Step Migration Guide
Coinkite’s guidance is explicit: updating firmware does not fix existing seeds. The seed was already generated with insufficient entropy — no firmware update changes the randomness (or lack of it) that was used to create it. The only solution is to generate a completely new seed and migrate funds.
Step 1 — Treat existing seeds as potentially compromised
If your seed was generated on an affected device and firmware combination without 50+ dice rolls and without a strong passphrase — assume it may be vulnerable. Do not delay action while waiting for more information.
Step 2 — Update to fixed firmware immediately
Mk4 and Mk5: Update to firmware 5.6.0 or laterQ model: Update to firmware 1.5.0Q or laterMk3: No fix available — see interim measure below
Step 3 — Generate a completely new seed on updated firmware
On the updated device, generate a brand new seed — do not restore your existing seed phrase. The new seed will be generated with proper hardware entropy and will not be affected by the flaw.
For additional security: During new seed generation, add at least 50 independent dice rolls to supplement the device’s hardware entropy. Combine the new seed with a strong, unique BIP-39 passphrase and store it separately from the seed backup.
Step 4 — Back up the new seed and passphrase correctly
Write down the new seed phrase on paper and store it securely. If you use a BIP-39 passphrase — store it separately from the seed phrase. Both are required to access the wallet, and losing either means losing access.
Step 5 — Verify the wallet
Check the wallet fingerprint and verify at least one receive address to confirm the new wallet is correctly set up before sending any funds.
Step 6 — Send a small test transaction first
Before migrating the full balance, send a small test amount from the old wallet to the new wallet and confirm it arrives correctly. Only then proceed with the full migration.
Step 7 — Migrate all remaining funds
Transfer all funds from the old (potentially compromised) wallet to the new wallet. Do not continue using the old seed after migration.
Mk3 interim measure:
If the Mk3 is your only available device and you cannot immediately access a Mk4/Mk5/Q, you can temporarily reduce exposure by adding a strong, unique BIP-39 passphrase to your existing wallet as an interim measure. This is not a permanent solution — plan a proper migration to a non-affected device as soon as possible.
Coincard Hack Advisory/Source: blog.coinkite.com
Why Entropy Matters — The Non-Technical Explanation
For users unfamiliar with the technical details: a hardware wallet’s security is only as good as the randomness used to create its seed. The seed is the master key from which all of your Bitcoin addresses are derived.
If that seed was generated with insufficient randomness — as this flaw caused — it means the universe of possible seeds your device could have generated was far smaller than intended. Instead of one in 2¹²⁸ possible seeds (a number larger than the atoms in the observable universe), your seed was one in approximately 2⁴⁰ or 2⁷² possible seeds — a dramatically smaller pool that a sophisticated adversary with sufficient computational resources could search through.
This is why the flaw is serious even for a device that was otherwise considered highly secure. The physical air-gap and tamper-resistance of the Coldcard hardware remain intact — but if the seed itself was generated from a reduced randomness pool, those physical security properties cannot compensate for the weakened cryptographic foundation.
Official Sources
Coinkite Mk3 Warning: https://blog.coinkite.com/coldcard-mk3-seed-generation-warning/Technical Backgrounder: https://blog.coinkite.com/entropy-technical-backgrounder/
Always verify information through official Coinkite channels — do not follow instructions from unofficial sources, social media accounts claiming to be Coinkite support, or any third parties offering to help recover or migrate funds.
Bottom Line
The Coldcard entropy flaw is a serious, technically complex vulnerability that has — based on the available on-chain evidence — already resulted in the theft of approximately $38.2 million in Bitcoin from affected wallets. The technical root cause is a firmware bug that silently used a software random number generator instead of the hardware one, producing seeds with 40 or 72 bits of effective security instead of the intended 128 bits.
If you own a Coldcard device and generated your seed on affected firmware without dice rolls or a strong passphrase — your funds may be at risk right now. The action required is not optional and cannot wait: update firmware, generate a new seed, and migrate your funds.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Bitcoin trades near $64,311, up 9.6% over the past month despite remaining down YTD.Alphractal says the Realized Profit vs. Realized Loss crossover is approaching—a signal that has historically marked major BTC bottoms.The two metrics are rapidly converging, suggesting a potential cycle bottom may be near.Previous crossovers have been followed by strong Bitcoin recoveries, making this a key on-chain indicator to watch.
Bitcoin’s on-chain data is producing one of the most historically significant signals of the current cycle — a signal that has called every major cycle bottom in Bitcoin’s history with remarkable precision. Understanding what it measures, what it has produced before, and how close it currently is to triggering provides crucial context for interpreting the current price action.
Bitcoin is trading at approximately $64,311 — up +9.60% over 30 days and with a market cap of approximately $1.29 trillion. Despite the recent recovery from lows near $62,000 — supported by the cooler CPI data showing 3.5% annual rate vs 3.8% expected and a -0.4% month-over-month decline (the largest since April 2020) — Bitcoin remains -26.51% year-to-date from its $126,000 all-time high.
Bitcoin BTC Price on 31 July 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
The Signal — Realized Profit vs. Realized Loss Crossover
Chart 1: Bitcoin Realized Profit vs. Realized Loss (2023–2026 close-up) | Source: Alphractal, Joao Wedson
Alphractal analyst Joao Wedson has identified and shared what he characterises as one of the most reliable cycle bottom signals in Bitcoin’s on-chain history — the Realized Profit vs. Realized Loss crossover.
What the metric measures:
Realized Profit (green line) tracks the aggregate dollar value of gains locked in when Bitcoin changes hands on-chain — reflecting holders who are selling at a profit relative to their acquisition price. Realized Loss (red line) tracks the aggregate dollar value of losses locked in when Bitcoin changes hands — reflecting holders who are selling at a loss.
The relationship between these two lines — specifically which is above the other and when they cross — provides a measurable, on-chain representation of the market’s aggregate profit/loss sentiment at any given point in time.
Current readings:
Metric Current Value Realized Profit$664.83M (green — declining)Realized Loss Rising (red — approaching green) Bitcoin Price~$63.76KSignal status Approaching crossover
What the Full Historical Chart Shows
Chart 2: Bitcoin Realized Profit vs. Realized Loss (Full history 2012–2026) | Source: Alphractal, Joao Wedson
The second chart — showing the complete Bitcoin history from 2012 through July 2026 — is where the signal’s historical credibility becomes most visible. The vertical blue lines mark each prior instance where the Realized Profit and Realized Loss lines crossed — and each blue line aligns with a significant Bitcoin price bottom or major cycle low:
The documented historical crossovers:
Looking at the full chart, the vertical blue lines appear at approximately:
~2015 — During Bitcoin’s post-2013 bear market bottom, before the 2016–2017 bull run~2019 — During Bitcoin’s 2018–2019 bear market recovery phase~2023 — At Bitcoin’s cycle low following the 2022 bear market and FTX collapse
In each documented instance — the crossover where Realized Profit dropped below and then re-crossed above Realized Loss (or the equivalent convergence) corresponded with a period where Bitcoin’s subsequent price action turned significantly positive.
The current setup:
The zoomed-in chart (Chart 1) from 2023–2026 shows the current dynamic in detail. Realized Profit (green) peaked during the 2024–2025 bull market when Bitcoin was near its $126,000 all-time high — as the majority of on-chain transactions represented profitable sellers during the rally. As Bitcoin has corrected -26.51% from that peak, Realized Profit has declined consistently as fewer sellers are in profit.
Simultaneously, Realized Loss (red) has been rising steadily through 2026 — reflecting the growing proportion of on-chain transactions where sellers are locking in losses relative to their acquisition price. This is the signature of a capitulation phase — holders who bought during the bull market peak or subsequent corrections are now selling at losses as patience exhausts.
The two lines have converged to their closest proximity since the 2023 crossover — with current Realized Profit at $664.83M and Realized Loss approaching that level from below.
Wedson’s Analysis — “Very Close”
Joao Wedson, the Alphractal analyst tracking this signal, provided a direct and specific characterisation of the current setup:
“When Realized Profit crosses Realized Loss, Bitcoin forms a bottom. And another crossover may be very close. Keep an eye on it!”
The directness of this statement — from an analyst using a metric with multiple confirmed historical instances — is notable. “Very close” is a specific characterisation that the visual convergence of the two lines in the current chart confirms: the gap between Realized Profit and Realized Loss at the current Bitcoin price of ~$63,760 is narrower than it has been at any point since the last confirmed crossover.
Why Realized Profit Crossing Below Realized Loss Signals a Bottom
The mechanism behind the crossover signal is grounded in market psychology and participant behaviour:
The capitulation phase: When Realized Loss rises and approaches Realized Profit, it reflects a sustained period where an increasing proportion of Bitcoin sellers are locking in losses. This behaviour is characteristic of capitulation — holders who bought at higher prices and have been waiting through the decline eventually reach their pain threshold and sell regardless of the loss.
The exhaustion dynamic: As capitulation progresses, the pool of sellers who are still holding unrealised losses gradually diminishes — because those who were going to sell at a loss have already done so. When Realized Loss reaches and crosses Realized Profit, it signals that the market has worked through a significant portion of the loss-realisation that characterises bear market bottoms.
The recovery signal: Once the bulk of loss-realisation is complete, the sellers who remain are predominantly those with conviction — either long-term holders or new buyers who entered at lower prices. With less forced or panic selling coming from underwater holders, the supply/demand balance shifts in favour of price recovery.
This mechanism — loss exhaustion followed by supply contraction — is the same dynamic we have been tracking through multiple independent signals throughout 2026: the 45% of LTH supply in unrealised loss with continued accumulation, the MVRV at the 5th percentile, the 147-day weekly bullish divergence, and the Structural Market Bands support zone. The Realized Profit vs. Loss crossover adds another independent dimension to what is becoming a notably convergent body of bottom-signal evidence.
The Macro Catalyst Supporting the Setup
The on-chain signal is not developing in a macro vacuum. As we covered extensively in mid-July — the US CPI print showing 3.5% annual inflation vs 3.8% expected and a -0.4% month-over-month decline (the largest monthly CPI drop since April 2020) has materially improved the rate cut outlook and removed one of the most persistent macro headwinds for Bitcoin throughout 2026.
The combination of improving macro conditions reducing selling pressure from macro-sensitive holders, and the on-chain Realized Profit vs. Loss convergence reflecting exhaustion of capitulation selling, describes the same bottoming dynamic from two different analytical perspectives simultaneously.
Bottom Line
Bitcoin at $64,311 is approaching what the Realized Profit vs. Realized Loss crossover signal — with a fully documented history of aligning with cycle bottoms across every prior Bitcoin bear market — is identifying as a potential inflection point. Realized Profit at $664.83M is declining, Realized Loss is rising, and the two lines are converging toward their closest proximity since the 2023 crossover that preceded Bitcoin’s last major bull run.
Joao Wedson’s characterisation — “another crossover may be very close” — is supported by both the visual convergence visible on the chart and the body of independent signals that have been accumulating throughout July 2026, all pointing toward the same late-stage bottoming conclusion.
Whether the crossover materialises in the coming days or weeks, and whether it produces the same post-crossover price action that each prior historical instance generated, will be the most important on-chain development to monitor for the remainder of 2026.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
A TD Sequential buy signal has appeared on the daily chart, hinting at a potential trend reversal.The weekly chart is forming an inverse head and shoulders, with $2.88 as the key upside target.A drop below $1.23 would invalidate the bullish setup.
NEAR Protocol is showing the same TD Sequential buy signal that @alicharts has been tracking on the daily chart through multiple prior turning points — and this time it is arriving at the lowest price level in the current sequence, with the weekly chart simultaneously building an inverse head and shoulders structure that provides a longer-term recovery framework if the signal holds.
NEAR is trading at $1.65 — up +4.28% in 24 hours — with a market cap of approximately $2.14 billion. Despite today’s recovery, NEAR remains under pressure on a 7-day (-12.34%) and 30-day (-7.16%) basis — reflecting the sustained selling that has brought the token to its current levels from the higher price zones visible earlier in the chart sequence.
NEAR Price on 30 July 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
TD Sequential Buy Signal on the Daily Chart
Analyst @alicharts has identified a TD Sequential buy signal on NEAR’s daily chart — the same indicator whose prior signals on this specific chart have been tracked with documented outcomes.
Reading the @alicharts daily chart:
The chart shows the full sequence of prior TD Sequential signals and their subsequent price outcomes — providing historical context for interpreting the current signal:
NEAR Daily Chart – TD Sequential Buy Signal/Source: @alicharts (X)
The prior buy signal in early July — which produced a +17.98% bounce — is the most directly comparable precedent for the current signal. Both are buy signals appearing after extended declines, at progressively lower price levels, with the current one appearing at $1.63 — the lowest level in the sequence visible on the chart.
What the TD Sequential buy signal means:
The TD Sequential buy signal (count of 9) identifies a point of potential trend exhaustion on the downside — where the sequence of lower closes has run its statistical course and a reversal becomes more probable. As we covered in our DOGE 4-timeframe TD Sequential article — these signals are most reliable when appearing after extended downtrends, which NEAR’s current position following weeks of consistent selling directly reflects.
The signal does not guarantee a specific price outcome — as the prior sell signals on this same chart correctly identified both the -25.47% and -36.25% corrections, the indicator has demonstrated accuracy on this specific asset that adds weight to the current buy signal appearing at $1.63.
Weekly Inverse Head and Shoulders
On the weekly timeframe, NEAR is developing a structural pattern that provides a longer-term recovery framework if the daily TD Sequential signal holds and price follows through:
The inverse head and shoulders pattern:
An inverse head and shoulders is a bullish reversal pattern defined by three successive lows — a left shoulder, a deeper head, and a right shoulder (higher than the head) — connected by a neckline at the highs between the three troughs. When price breaks above the neckline, the pattern projects a measured move equal to the distance from the head to the neckline, applied above the breakout point.
NEAR Weekly Chart – Coinsprobe/Source: Tradingview
NEAR’s current pattern stage:
The right shoulder low appears to be forming near $1.5610 — the level that has been providing the near-term floor during the current decline. The current bounce to $1.65 represents the early stages of the right shoulder recovery.
The sequential confirmation levels:
Step 1 — Reclaim the 50 MA at $1.8571:
Before the neckline becomes relevant, NEAR needs to reclaim the 50-day moving average at approximately $1.8571. This moving average reclaim is the first meaningful technical confirmation that the right shoulder is forming constructively rather than failing — and it represents approximately +12% upside from the current $1.65 level.
Step 2 — Test the neckline at $2.88:
A sustained move above the 50 MA would open the path toward the inverse head and shoulders neckline around $2.88 — the level whose breakout would confirm the broader pattern. From the current price of $1.65, reaching $2.88 represents approximately +75% upside.
Step 3 — Confirmed neckline breakout:
A confirmed breakout above $2.88 — ideally on elevated weekly volume — would fully activate the inverse head and shoulders pattern and project the measured move target above that level based on the pattern’s depth.
Bullish Scenario — 50 MA Reclaim and Neckline Test
The TD Sequential buy signal at $1.63 holds — price sustains above the right shoulder low at $1.5610 and begins building toward the 50 MA at $1.8571. A confirmed reclaim of the 50 MA shifts the weekly momentum from bearish to neutral-to-bullish and opens the path toward the $2.88 neckline as the inverse head and shoulders continues to develop. This scenario mirrors the prior TD Sequential buy signal that produced the +16% bounce from the early July low.
Bearish Scenario — Below $1.23
A sustained decline below $1.23 would invalidate the inverse head and shoulders setup entirely — breaking below the structural level that defines the right shoulder and confirming that the pattern has failed rather than resolved. In this scenario the weekly recovery thesis requires a complete reset to a lower price structure.
Bottom Line
NEAR’s today’s +4.28% bounce to $1.65 arrives with two specific technical signals supporting the recovery thesis — a TD Sequential buy signal on the daily chart whose prior occurrences on this same asset have tracked accurately, and a developing inverse head and shoulders on the weekly chart whose right shoulder low is forming near $1.5610.
The recovery path is sequential and level-based: $1.5610 must hold as the right shoulder floor, $1.8571 (50 MA) is the first confirmation gate, and $2.88 (neckline) is the full pattern target. The invalidation is equally clear at $1.23 — the level below which the pattern structure fails.
Watch whether today’s TD Sequential buy signal develops follow-through in the sessions ahead — the prior signal at the equivalent stage produced +17.98%. Whether the current signal at $1.63 can match or exceed that outcome will be the near-term test of the recovery thesis.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
UNI is up 42.4% over the past 30 days, reflecting renewed investor interest in revenue-generating DeFi protocols.Uniswap ranks #3 in protocol fees, generating $92.5M over the last 30 days.It also remains the largest DEX by trading volume, processing nearly $52B in monthly volume.A bullish breakout from a broadening wedge points to a potential move toward $5.88, with $3.26 acting as key support.
Uniswap is making the case that fundamental protocol performance — measurable, consistent, and publicly verifiable on-chain — eventually finds its way into token price. A 30-day gain of +42.41% while generating $92.55M in protocol fees and $51.94B in DEX volume is not a narrative-driven speculative move. It is a market gradually repricing a protocol that has continued executing while the broader DeFi token market struggled.
UNI is trading at $4.02 — up +3.87% in 24 hours and +4.31% over 7 days — with a market cap of approximately $2.51 billion. The 30-day performance is the standout figure — a +42% move while most altcoins remain deeply negative YTD reflects specific, protocol-driven buying interest rather than broad market beta.
Uniswap (UNI) Price on 30 July 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
Protocol Fees: Third Globally, Behind Only Tether and Circle
The most fundamental signal driving Uniswap’s renewed investor interest is a fee generation profile that places it in elite company across all crypto protocols — not just DeFi or DEX competitors.
Uniswap’s fee
PeriodFees Generated24 hours$3.14 million7 days$22.28 million30 days$92.55 million
The competitive context:
In the current protocol fee rankings as per defillama only Tether (earning fees on USDT issuance and redemption) and Circle (earning on USDC operations) generate more fees than Uniswap. Both are stablecoin issuers with fundamentally different business models — infrastructure providers for the entire crypto ecosystem rather than application-layer protocols.
Among all decentralised applications — trading platforms, lending protocols, derivatives exchanges, and infrastructure services — Uniswap’s $92.55M in 30-day fees places it at the top of the DeFi fee generation table. This is not a metric that fluctuates dramatically based on market sentiment — it reflects the actual trading activity flowing through Uniswap’s liquidity pools, which remains consistently high regardless of broader token price trends.
Top Protocols by Fees Generation/Source: DefiLlama
What fee generation means for UNI’s investment thesis:
High, consistent protocol fees create a genuine case for token value accrual — particularly as Uniswap’s governance and fee switch discussions have periodically brought the question of whether those fees should flow to UNI holders to the forefront. Even without an activated fee switch, the fee generation data establishes Uniswap as a protocol with real revenue — a category of DeFi asset that has historically outperformed pure narrative tokens over sustained periods.
Uniswap’s DEX Volume Leadership
Beyond fees, Uniswap’s trading volume profile confirms its position as the dominant decentralised exchange by an increasingly wide margin:
PeriodDEX Volume24 hours$2.092 billion7 days$12.356 billion30 days$51.94 billion
$51.94 billion in 30-day volume — processed entirely through smart contracts, with no central counterparty, no custodian, and no order book requiring human market makers — is one of the most significant infrastructure performance metrics in DeFi. It means Uniswap’s liquidity pools absorbed and processed over $50 billion in trading value in the last month alone.
For comparison, the competitors Uniswap outpaces include PancakeSwap (BSC’s dominant DEX), Native, and Pump.fun — none of which approach Uniswap’s volume figures at the 30-day aggregate level. Uniswap’s moat in DEX volume is not simply its age or reputation — it is the deep liquidity that its concentrated liquidity model (v3) and multi-chain deployment have built across Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Optimism, and other chains.
Top DEX by Volumes/Source: DefiLlama
UNI Technical Analysis
The technical picture on Uniswap’s daily chart provides the specific level-based framework for the current price move and its potential continuation.
The pattern — right-angled descending broadening wedge:
A right-angled descending broadening wedge is characterised by a flat lower horizontal support and a descending upper resistance trendline — creating an expanding range where price makes lower highs while the floor holds at a consistent level. This pattern frequently precedes significant upside moves when price breaks above the descending upper trendline — as the combination of contained downside (flat support) and compressing upper resistance creates a spring-loaded structure.
UN/USD Daily Chart -Coinsprobe/Source: Tradingview
UNI’s pattern history:
UNI established the lower horizontal support near $2.317 — a level that held through multiple tests during the 2026 corrective phase. The rebound from that support to the current $4.02 — approximately +73% from the pattern floor — represents the initial thrust of the recovery move within the wedge.
Price is now approaching the upper descending resistance trendline — the level that, when broken with conviction, activates the pattern’s measured move.
The breakout scenario:
A clean breakout above the upper resistance trendline — followed by a successful retest near the $4.11 area — would confirm the wedge has resolved to the upside. The pattern’s measured move target is $5.88 — representing approximately +46% additional upside from the current price of $4.02.
The $4.11 retest level is important: a breakout that holds above $4.11 on a retest converts former resistance into support — the technical confirmation that the breakout is genuine rather than a false move that reverses back inside the wedge.
The $3.26 100 MA support:
On the downside, the 100-day moving average at approximately $3.26 is the key structural support that must hold to maintain the current bullish structure. A sustained break below the 100 MA would weaken the recovery narrative and potentially invalidate the immediate upside setup — bringing the $2.317 pattern floor back into focus as the next meaningful support.
Why Uniswap Is Attracting Attention Now
The combination of fundamental performance and technical structure arriving simultaneously is what makes the current UNI setup more compelling than typical altcoin momentum plays.
The fundamental case — $92.55M in monthly fees and $51.94B in monthly volume — establishes Uniswap as a protocol with real, measurable business performance that has remained consistent through the 2026 bear market. Unlike tokens whose value rests entirely on narrative and speculation, UNI’s protocol generates verifiable on-chain revenue regardless of the token price.
This fundamental strength is not a new discovery — as we covered in our Uniswap Standard Chartered $100 by 2030 and key pattern article — Standard Chartered’s long-term $100 price target for UNI by 2030 was grounded specifically in this fee generation model and Uniswap’s durable DEX volume leadership. The current $5.88 technical target is a near-term step within what institutional analysts see as a much larger multi-year repricing thesis.
The technical case — a multi-month broadening wedge rebounding from major horizontal support with a clear measured move target — provides the specific price levels that make the trade quantifiable rather than open-ended.
The broader DeFi context:
As we have covered throughout 2026 — the market has been increasingly differentiating between protocols with real fee generation and those without. Uniswap sits at the top of that first category — alongside Hyperliquid and a small number of other protocols that generate consistent, substantial revenue from actual product usage rather than token incentive mechanisms.
Bottom Line
Uniswap’s +42.41% 30-day performance reflects a market repricing a protocol that has continued to deliver — $92.55M in monthly fees, $51.94B in monthly DEX volume, and a third-place global ranking behind only Tether and Circle — while most DeFi tokens have struggled. The right-angled descending broadening wedge provides the technical map: a confirmed breakout above the upper trendline and successful $4.11 retest would activate the $5.88 measured move target, while the 100 MA at $3.26 remains the key downside level that must hold to maintain the current structure.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Selini Capital moved 495,473 HYPE (~$26.8M) to an OKX deposit address after unstaking.Multicoin Capital received ~1.96M HYPE (~$106M–$108M), moving most to HyperEVM and 86,314 HYPE (~$4.78M) to Coinbase Prime.Nearly $150M in HYPE has recently entered or completed the unstaking process, raising questions over potential selling, OTC deals, or redeployment.
Two major venture capital firms moving hundreds of millions of dollars worth of HYPE to centralised exchange deposit addresses within the same window is the on-chain event the market has been anticipating and monitoring since the large unstaking queue was first identified. Here is the full picture of what has moved, why, and what it may mean.
HYPE is trading near $54.77 — down -0.78% in 24 hours, -6.88% over 7 days, and -12.13% over 30 days — with a market cap of approximately $13.83 billion. Despite the sustained corrective phase from the $76.96 all-time high, HYPE remains +115.39% year-to-date — a figure that reflects the protocol’s genuine performance and product-market fit even as institutional position management creates near-term supply pressure.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price on 29 July 2026/Source: Coinmarketcap
Movement 1 — Selini Capital: $26.8M Sent to OKX
The first and more immediately market-relevant movement involves Selini Capital — a quantitative trading and market-making firm that was an active participant in Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 permissionless perpetuals market ecosystem.
Seleni Capital Deposits HYPE to OKX/Source: arkm.com
The on-chain sequence:
Selini Capital recently received approximately 504,000 HYPE (~$27M) following the completion of an unstaking period. Within a few hours of receiving these tokens, a wallet linked to the firm transferred nearly the entire unstaked amount to an OKX deposit address in multiple transactions:
Transaction HYPE Amount Approximate Value Large transfer 1345,350 HYPE~$18.9MLarge transfer 2150,000 HYPE~$8.2MTotal transferred to OKX495,473 HYPE~$26.8M
The HIP-3 Dreamcash context:
This movement is widely understood to be connected to the wind-down of Selini’s HIP-3 perpetuals market — Dreamcash. Under Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework — which we covered extensively in our HIP-3 open interest all-time high article — deploying a permissionless perpetuals market required operators to stake 500,000 HYPE as a security bond. This bond is held as collateral during the market’s operation and becomes refundable when the market is shut down.
The ~504,000 HYPE received by Selini represents the return of that security bond following the Dreamcash market closure. The near-immediate transfer of 495,473 HYPE to OKX — within hours of receiving the unstaked tokens — has understandably raised market speculation about potential selling or portfolio rebalancing.
The important caveat: Large deposits to centralised exchanges do not always result in immediate open-market sales. OTC desks, block trades, and internal transfers between exchange accounts are all possibilities for tokens deposited at this scale. The market cannot confirm selling has occurred until price impact or order book data provides further evidence.
Movement 2 — Multicoin Capital: $106M Unstaked, $4.78M to Coinbase Prime
The second institutional movement involves significantly larger amounts but comes with more context about the firm’s stated intentions.
The on-chain sequence:
Multicoin Capital completed an unstaking period, receiving approximately 1.96 million HYPE (~$106–108M) across multiple wallets — one of the larger single institutional unstaking events in HYPE’s history. The firm’s handling of these tokens has been split:
Action HYPE Amount Approximate Value Moved to HyperEVM Bulk of 1.96M~$100M+ Transferred to Coinbase Prime86,314 HYPE~$4.78M
The decision to move the bulk of the position to HyperEVM — rather than to a centralised exchange — is the most important signal in Multicoin’s on-chain behaviour. HyperEVM is Hyperliquid’s Ethereum-compatible execution environment — tokens moved there are positioned for use within the Hyperliquid ecosystem rather than for immediate exchange-side liquidation.
Multicoin Capital HYPE Deposit to Coinbase Prime/Source: arkm.com
Multicoin’s entry price and unrealised gains:
Multicoin’s average entry price on HYPE is reported at approximately $37.50 — meaning at the current price of $54.77, the firm is sitting on approximately +46% unrealised gains on the full position. The decision to keep the bulk of tokens within the HyperEVM ecosystem rather than moving them to exchanges is consistent with a firm that is not under pressure to liquidate and has established a longer-term position thesis.
Prior Multicoin statements:
Earlier statements from Multicoin Capital indicated that previous unstaking activity was related to wallet rotation for operational and privacy reasons rather than an intent to sell. The current movement — with the vast majority going to HyperEVM and only $4.78M going to Coinbase Prime — is broadly consistent with that characterisation, though the Coinbase Prime transfer does represent a meaningful amount moving to an institutional selling venue.
The Broader Institutional Unstaking Context
These two movements do not exist in isolation — they are part of a broader institutional position management cycle that has been one of the primary supply-side narratives for HYPE throughout July 2026.
As we documented in our HYPE a16z whale distribution articles — earlier reports identified nearly $150 million in HYPE queued for unstaking across Multicoin, Selini, and Galaxy Digital combined. Today’s movements represent the execution of a significant portion of that queued unstaking — with Selini’s $27M now confirmed moving to OKX and Multicoin’s $4.78M confirmed moving to Coinbase Prime.
The cumulative picture of institutional HYPE movement in July 2026:
a16z-linked whale: ~$53.68M distributed to exchanges over two days (covered in detail)Selini Capital: ~$26.8M to OKX (today)Multicoin Capital: ~$4.78M to Coinbase Prime (today), bulk to HyperEVMGalaxy Digital: Part of the $150M unstaking queue — movements not yet fully confirmed
The total known institutional supply addition to exchange venues in July alone is approaching $85M+ — a significant but not insurmountable amount for a token with $13.83B market cap and genuine protocol-level demand through fee buybacks and yield mechanisms.
Why HYPE Has Held Relatively Stable Despite the Pressure
Despite the scale of institutional unstaking and exchange transfers, HYPE has maintained a relatively stable range around the $54–$55 level — a resilience that deserves acknowledgment.
Several factors are providing structural support against the supply pressure:
Protocol buybacks: Hyperliquid’s fee revenue directly funds HYPE buybacks from the open market — creating consistent, mechanical demand that partially offsets supply from institutional sellers.
AQAv2 yield activation (August): The approaching AQAv2 USDC yield mechanism — which distributes protocol revenue to HYPE stakers — creates an incentive for long-term holders to stake rather than sell, gradually reducing available liquid supply.
Continued protocol adoption: Hyperliquid’s trading volume, open interest, and fee revenue metrics have not deteriorated alongside the price correction — the protocol continues to operate as the leading decentralised perpetuals platform regardless of institutional position management activity.
HyperEVM redeployment: Multicoin moving the bulk of its unstaked HYPE to HyperEVM rather than exchanges suggests meaningful institutional capital is being redeployed within the ecosystem rather than exited.
As we identified in our Hyperliquid’s decline breakdown— the $52.64 support remains the near-term floor to watch. A sustained close below that level would open the path toward the $47–$45 zone. A recovery above the 50 MA at $60.60 would be the first technical confirmation that the institutional supply overhang is being absorbed.
Bottom Line
Selini Capital’s $26.8M transfer to OKX and Multicoin’s $4.78M transfer to Coinbase Prime — arriving in the same window — represent the most concentrated single-day institutional exchange inflow for HYPE in the current corrective cycle. Whether these deposits result in open-market selling, OTC block trades, or internal account management will determine their actual price impact rather than the transfer alone.
The more encouraging data point is Multicoin moving the bulk of its ~$106M unstaked position to HyperEVM rather than exchanges — suggesting the dominant institutional behaviour is ecosystem redeployment rather than exit. But until the OKX and Coinbase Prime deposits are either absorbed or confirmed as non-market-selling, the supply overhang narrative will continue to create near-term resistance to recovery attempts.
Watch $52.64 as the support that must hold — and watch the exchange order books for evidence of whether Selini and Multicoin’s deposits translate into active selling or remain as dormant exchange balances.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Japan's Eole Inc. became the first publicly listed Japanese company to buy HYPE, purchasing 1,078.25 tokens for about $68,000.Eole plans to increase its HYPE holdings to around $670,000 by August-end as part of its crypto treasury strategy.The company views Hyperliquid and HyperEVM as key infrastructure for emerging AI-driven commerce.The move highlights growing institutional interest in HYPE as a corporate treasury asset.
When a publicly listed company files an official TDnet disclosure to announce the purchase of a DeFi protocol’s native token as a corporate treasury asset — that is a meaningful data point about where institutional adoption of decentralised finance infrastructure is heading. Eole’s acquisition of HYPE is modest in dollar terms but historically significant in what it represents: the first Japanese listed company to formally hold HYPE, with a stated strategy to expand that holding and integrate it into its core business direction.
The Official Acquisition — By the Numbers
The acquisition was formally disclosed through Japan’s TDnet official corporate disclosure system on July 28/29, 2026:
DetailDataCompanyEole Inc. (イオレ)Exchange listingTokyo Growth Market (TSE: 2334)Purchase dateJuly 28, 2026Quantity purchased1,078.25469311 HYPETotal amount paid¥10,084,663.8716Average purchase price¥9,352.766 per HYPETarget total by end-August¥100 millionHistoric statusFirst Japanese listed company to hold HYPE
Eole also confirmed that HYPE holdings will be measured at fair value each quarter — similar to its existing Bitcoin accounting treatment — with gains or losses reflected directly in the income statement. This approach mirrors the fair value accounting framework that MicroStrategy and other corporate Bitcoin treasury holders use in their financial reporting, applied here to HYPE.
Why Eole Is Buying HYPE — The Strategic Rationale
This acquisition did not emerge from a speculative trading decision. It was disclosed under Eole’s previously announced change in use of funds (disclosed July 16, 2026), which expanded the company’s digital asset allocation from Bitcoin only to a broader set of digital assets. The HYPE purchase is the first execution under that expanded mandate.
The “Neo Crypto Bank” strategy:
Eole has positioned its digital asset activities under a broader corporate vision it calls the “Neo Crypto Bank” strategy — building on-chain financial infrastructure and capabilities rather than simply holding crypto assets as passive treasury positions. The HYPE acquisition is described as a strategic foundation for this vision rather than a pure capital gains play.
Neo Crypto Bank strategy/Source: release.tdnet.info
Executive Director Kensuke Amo (@amokensuke) provided the detailed strategic context beyond the formal disclosure — explaining three specific threads that converge in the HYPE acquisition decision.
The Three Strategic Threads — Kensuke Amo’s Explanation
Thread 1 — Agentic Commerce and the AI Agent Economy
The most forward-looking element of Eole’s HYPE thesis is its focus on Agentic Commerce — a term describing the emerging era where AI agents autonomously handle payments, contracts, and financial transactions on behalf of users and businesses.
The key constraint that AI agents face in traditional finance: they generally do not have traditional bank accounts and cannot access conventional payment rails. They require high-speed, low-cost, fully programmable on-chain financial infrastructure that can execute transactions autonomously without human intermediation at each step.
Hyperliquid’s architecture directly addresses this requirement: a finance-specialised Layer-1 capable of processing thousands of transactions per second with sub-100ms latency, combined with the Ethereum-compatible HyperEVM that enables programmable smart contract execution. This combination makes Hyperliquid one of the strongest candidates Eole has identified for becoming core infrastructure for AI-driven financial activity as the Agentic Commerce era develops.
As we covered in our How to Use AI Agents on Robinhood article — the intersection of AI agents and financial execution is one of the most active development areas in 2026. Eole is positioning HYPE as its infrastructure bet on that specific thesis.
Thread 2 — The US Regulatory DAT Dynamic
Amo also highlighted a structural market dynamic that is driving corporate interest in HYPE treasury vehicles globally:
Strict US regulations — including AML requirements, CFTC jurisdiction over derivatives, and SEC framework uncertainty — make it difficult for many US retail and institutional investors to access Hyperliquid directly through Web3 frontends. The regulatory friction around direct protocol access has created demand for an alternative access vehicle: regulated, publicly listed HYPE Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies.
Examples already operating in the US include Hyperliquid Strategies and PURR — publicly listed vehicles that allow investors to gain exposure to Hyperliquid’s ecosystem and protocol revenue while remaining within traditional financial market frameworks that US compliance structures permit.
Eole is positioning itself as the Japanese equivalent of this category — a publicly listed vehicle providing regulated, compliant HYPE exposure to Japanese investors and institutions who face similar or different regulatory frictions in accessing Hyperliquid directly.
Thread 3 — Future Integration Plans
Beyond the initial acquisition, Amo outlined Eole’s forward-looking plans for the HYPE position:
Staking exploration — Eole plans to explore staking and other operational methods that would allow the HYPE position to generate yield rather than sitting as a passive holding. This connects directly to the AQAv2 USDC yield mechanism we covered — which activates in August 2026 and provides protocol-level yield to HYPE stakers.
Volatility hedging — Using traditional financial market instruments where appropriate to manage the price exposure from the HYPE position within Japanese regulatory compliance requirements.
Product and service integration — Integrating HYPE and Hyperliquid infrastructure into Eole’s own products and services as the Neo Crypto Bank strategy develops — moving from passive holding toward active operational use of the asset.
Why This Matters Beyond the Dollar Amount
The initial ¥10 million (~$61,000) purchase is modest by global crypto treasury standards. But the significance of this announcement is not the dollar amount — it is what the formal TDnet disclosure represents:
A Japanese publicly listed company has formally, legally, and with full corporate disclosure accountability, adopted HYPE as a treasury asset — with a stated strategy, a defined expansion target, and a management-level strategic rationale that goes beyond speculation.
This is categorically different from retail or even institutional trading of HYPE. A listed company filing an official government disclosure about holding HYPE means the asset is now on the balance sheet of a public company, subject to quarterly fair value accounting, disclosed to shareholders and regulators, and integrated into a stated corporate strategy. That institutional legitimacy has a value that is independent of the dollar amount involved.
The path from first listed company to broad listed company adoption — in Japan or any market — typically follows a similar pattern: one company moves first, the disclosure becomes a reference point for others evaluating the same decision, and subsequent adopters can point to the precedent rather than navigating the uncertainty alone.
As we covered in our Will HYPE Reach $100 article — one of the key factors in HYPE’s long-term thesis is institutional adoption expanding beyond pure trading interest into treasury and strategic holding. Eole’s announcement is a data point in that direction.
Key Context — Hyperliquid’s Protocol Fundamentals
The institutional interest Eole is expressing is grounded in Hyperliquid’s operational reality as one of the most genuinely used DeFi protocols in existence:
As we covered throughout 2026 — Hyperliquid has achieved consistent top-three perpetual DEX volume rankings, generated substantial protocol fee revenue that funds its USDC yield and buyback mechanisms, launched Portfolio Margin and other institutional-grade features, and built the AQAv2 yield mechanism that activates for stakers in August 2026. The HIP-4 permissionless prediction markets — currently in testnet — represent the next major product expansion.
Eole’s acquisition is a bet on this fundamental picture continuing to develop — and on Hyperliquid’s infrastructure becoming a foundational layer for AI-driven financial applications as the Agentic Commerce era matures.
Bottom Line
Eole Inc.’s acquisition of HYPE — the first by a Japanese publicly listed company — is a historically notable milestone for Hyperliquid’s institutional adoption story in Asia. The ¥100 million target by end-August, the fair value accounting treatment, the “Neo Crypto Bank” strategic framing, and the specific Agentic Commerce thesis articulated by Executive Director Kensuke Amo all indicate this is a deliberate, strategic position rather than a speculative purchase.
Whether other Japanese listed companies follow Eole’s precedent — and whether the DAT vehicle model that has developed in the US begins to replicate in Japan and other markets — will be one of the more interesting institutional adoption stories to watch as 2026 progresses.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.

Key Highlights
Pi Network Protocol 26.1 rollout is underway, with a mandatory August 11, 2026 deadline for Mainnet node operators.The upgrade includes internal data migrations, with less than five minutes of expected downtime for most operators.Protocol 27.0 is not ready yet; node operators should wait for further instructions.v26.1 continues Pi’s infrastructure upgrades following Protocol 25’s BN254 and Poseidon cryptography improvements.
Pi Network’s sequential protocol upgrade programme continues to advance — and with the August 11 deadline now confirmed for Protocol v26.1, node operators who have not yet begun the upgrade process need to act now rather than waiting for the deadline to approach.
Where v26.1 Fits in the Upgrade Sequence
Pi’s blockchain upgrade strategy has been methodical and sequential throughout 2026 — advancing step-by-step through a defined upgrade path rather than making large version jumps. As we covered in our Protocol v25 upgrade and Dark Mode article — the v25 upgrade on July 22 introduced BN254 cryptography and Poseidon hashing, expanding the network’s capacity for zero-knowledge application development.
The full mandatory upgrade sequence:
Pi Node Upgrade Status/Source: minepi
Current status as of late July 2026:
Pi Node Upgrade Timeline/Source: minepi
The sequential nature of this upgrade path is non-negotiable — nodes must complete each step in order and wait for network-wide completion before advancing. Jumping ahead to a higher version is not permitted and risks network disconnection.
What Protocol v26.1 Involves
Protocol 26.1 is characterised by the Pi Core Team as a relatively straightforward upgrade — primarily involving internal data migrations rather than the kind of major cryptographic or consensus changes that prior versions introduced.
Expected downtime for most operators: less than five minutes — making this one of the less disruptive upgrades in the current sequence and reducing the operational burden on node operators compared to more complex prior versions.
What this upgrade builds on:
Protocol 26.1 continues the infrastructure strengthening that Protocol v25 established — where BN254 elliptic curve cryptography and Poseidon hashing were introduced to enable privacy-preserving zero-knowledge applications and more efficient smart contracts. As we covered in our Protocol v25 article — these additions gave Pi developers the cryptographic primitives needed for genuine ZK application development for the first time.
Pi’s blockchain is built on the open-source Stellar Core codebase — with the Core Team continuously adapting and extending it for Pi’s specific requirements. Each version in the upgrade sequence strengthens network infrastructure, improves security, stability, and scalability, and lays a progressively more capable foundation for the developer ecosystem and future Mainnet applications.
Step-by-Step Upgrade Instructions
The upgrade process varies depending on how you run your node. Here is what each operator type needs to know:
Pi Desktop (Windows / macOS):
Upgrades are typically handled automatically when the node application is started — you should see the upgrade applied without manual intervention. Verify the node shows as running on Protocol 26.1 after restart before considering the process complete.
Pi Linux Node CLI:
Auto-update is the recommended approach. If auto-update is enabled, the system will handle the migration. If auto-update has been disabled, run the appropriate manual update command for your setup and monitor the node status until it shows as “Synced” — do not assume completion until the sync status is confirmed.
Self-Managed Docker:
Manual intervention is required. Operators must:
Pull the latest 26.1 Docker image: pinetwork/pi-node-docker:organization_mainnet-v1.0-p26.1.0 (or equivalent)Update the Docker container configuration to reference the new imageRestart the containerVerify the node is syncing correctly after restart
Verification step (all setups):
Check the ingest_latest_ledger value on your node against the mainnet API at https://api.mainnet.minepi.com to confirm your node is on the correct ledger and properly synced to the network following the upgrade.
Full technical details, release notes, and verification steps are available in the official Pi Node Protocol Upgrade Guide.
Critical Operational Warning — Do Not Upgrade All Nodes Simultaneously
Pi Network’s official guidance includes a specific and important warning for operators running multiple nodes:
Do not upgrade all your nodes at the same time.
During the upgrade process — even with the sub-five-minute expected downtime — having all nodes simultaneously offline creates a gap in the services those nodes provide. Instead:
Divert traffic to other nodes or to the official endpoint https://api.mainnet.minepi.com during the upgrade window. Upgrade nodes sequentially — complete and verify one node before beginning the next. This maintains network participation continuity throughout the upgrade process.
The August 11 Deadline — Why Acting Now Matters
The August 11, 2026 deadline is a hard deadline — not a recommendation. Nodes that have not completed the upgrade to Protocol 26.1 by this date will be at risk of disconnection from the Mainnet network until the upgrade is completed.
For most operators, the upgrade itself takes less than five minutes. The risk is not the upgrade process — it is delay creating a situation where you are inadvertently disconnected from Mainnet during a period when the network has already moved forward.
As we covered in our Protocol v25.2 June 18 deadline article — the consequences of missing upgrade deadlines in the sequential Pi protocol process are straightforward: disconnection from the active network until the upgrade is completed. There is no grace period built into the network-level enforcement.
The recommended approach: complete the upgrade well ahead of August 11 — not on August 11 itself. This allows time to troubleshoot any unexpected issues without the pressure of an imminent deadline.
What’s Next — Protocol 27.0 on the Horizon
Protocol 27.0 has already appeared on Pi Network’s upgrade roadmap — confirming that the sequential upgrade sequence continues beyond the current v26.1 step. However, the Core Team’s guidance is explicit:
Do not start the 27.0 upgrade until further notice.
The timing and specific requirements for 27.0 will be communicated separately. Operators who have completed 26.1 should monitor official Pi Network channels for the 27.0 announcement rather than attempting to advance ahead of the official guidance.
Other developments the community is watching alongside the protocol upgrades:
The Mainnet Launchpad and DEX feature development — building on the SLICE test token distribution and liquidity pool mechanics tested on Testnet. Accelerated KYC processing and Mainnet migration support — the ongoing friction point for many Pioneers that protocol upgrades do not directly address. Broader smart contract adoption — where Protocol v25’s ZK cryptography additions have laid the technical foundation. Additional ecosystem tools building on the Pi2Day 2026 releases of SoloHost, Pi Sign-in, and PiVerify.
Bottom Line
Protocol v26.1 is a mandatory upgrade with a clear August 11 deadline — and at less than five minutes of expected downtime for most operators, the upgrade itself is one of the least burdensome in the current sequence. The barrier to completion is low. The consequence of missing the deadline — Mainnet disconnection — is significant.
Node operators should complete the upgrade now rather than waiting for the deadline, follow the sequential process appropriate for their setup (Desktop, Linux CLI, or Docker), verify sync status after completion, and monitor official channels for the Protocol 27.0 announcement.
Pi Network’s systematic protocol upgrade programme continues to strengthen the infrastructure that future Mainnet applications — including the Launchpad DEX, ZK applications, and broader smart contract ecosystem — will depend on. Each upgrade builds the foundation. v26.1 is the current step in that process.
Disclaimer: The views and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and reflect the author’s perspective, not financial advice. Technical patterns and indicators discussed are subject to market volatility and may or may not yield the anticipated results. Investors are advised to exercise caution, conduct independent research, and make decisions aligned with their individual risk tolerance.