The last two months of the $BTC bear market are usually very bearish 🩸
Many have now turned bullish and claim the price has already bottomed. Too many people go against the four-year cycle and it always ends with losing money 🤷♂️
This is how I see the structure of this bear market:
Between November and January, the price fluctuated more between $62,000 and $78,000 than between $84,000 and $97,000. Therefore, I assume we are dealing with a double zigzag (WXY). This move from $60,000 to $79,500 (which could rise even further, since the next major resistance is at $85,000 and the ABC target is $82,500—so a slight additional pull-up would be quite normal) is wave (X) between two bearish waves (W) and (Y).
From the time perspective, we still have approximately 5 months left in this bear market.
Wave (O): $126,000 --> $60,000 Wave (X): $60,000 --> $80,000 Now I’m expecting the last bearish wave: Wave (Y): $80,000 --> $40,000 (Minimum of the bear market in September-October 2026) 📍
▪️ STH-SOPR: indicates that short-term holders are experiencing large losses or gains. Suggests a possible reversal.
▪️ Price of $BTC and Operation ID: when open interest falls more than 12% in 7 days, it can be a good signal to buy.
▪️ Cyclical Signals of the PnL Index: this indicator combines several on-chain metrics. Currently indicates sales, as many are securing their profits.
▪️ Funding Rates: negative funding usually indicates distrust from traders. When the price starts to rise, it triggers a strong rebound.
▪️ Realized Price STH and LTH: an indicator that can indicate a buying opportunity on the dip if the price of BTC falls below the average purchase price of STH.
Only one item on this list indicates a sell, so the overall signal is growth.
However, all indicators point to growth, which paints a picture of an exceptionally bullish market; therefore, this could simply be a strong rebound.$ #BTCRebound90kNext? #BTC