Chuyện Crypto1

Đầu tuần mình nhận định BTC có khả năng giảm về 74.800. Thực tế, giá đã chạm 74.900 rồi bật trở lại, gần như hoàn thành kịch bản.

Hiện tại, vùng 74.800–75.000 là khu vực cần quan sát. Nếu BTC quay lại kiểm tra vùng giá này, vẫn giữ vững và xuất hiện tín hiệu xác nhận tăng, khi đó chúng ta mới cân nhắc vị thế Long.

Nếu vùng này bị phá, kịch bản Long sẽ không còn hiệu lực nha anh em #BTC #TinFed

If the eyes don’t see, the heart doesn’t ache...
#iPhoneDuo #TradeToWin #FedHikeOddsRiseTo89%

‼️ 48 hours before the FOMC: Oil at $107 + an 86% probability that the Fed will raise rates—so what is BTC trading based on?

Normally, the combo of oil rising → inflation pressure increases → the Fed has to be more hawkish → risky assets come under pressure, so BTC can hardly feel happy. But up to now, the crew is still quite stubborn.

☝ Meaning the market has already priced in most of the likelihood of a 0.25% Fed rate hike. What matters now is no longer whether there will be a hike, but whether after this hike the Fed will stop or keep raising rates.

If the Fed raises exactly 0.25% as expected but signals that this is only a one-off adjustment, BTC could completely rebound because the bad news has already been prepared for by the market. On the other hand, if the Fed hints that more hikes are still coming, crypto will stay sluggish—get ready for a few more weeks of eating dryly with just water and tears.

If oil at $107 and BTC still hasn’t settled down, then the reaction after this meeting could be even more important than the decision to raise rates itself 👀

Holding a stop-loss all week.
On the weekend we have to go to work to treat the brothers a bit. Being a trader is already tough; liking a 500K shirt but putting it in and taking it out until you don’t dare buy. And then you got into the trade and somehow ended up holding the stop-loss—SL 1-200$ ? 😅

BTC – ASSESSMENT AND TRADING PLAN 12/09

Yesterday, BTC saw a spike into the 79K8 zone, then quickly dropped back to the starting point—exactly like “as if no breakup ever happened.”

That’s also why we should wait for the candle to close before confirming a breakout. When the candle hasn’t closed yet, any “breakout” could just be a false break. Fortunately, our earlier Long order had already hit take profit before the price reversed.

At the moment, BTC still hasn’t broken the descending trendline. However, the daily candle is starting to turn green after a stretch of consecutive bearish candles, suggesting that selling momentum is showing signs of weakening. Still, this is not yet a confirmed reversal signal.

From a personal perspective, I would take a probing Long position:

🟢 Entry: 77,287
🔴 Stop Loss: 76,600

Because this is an early position while the descending trendline hasn’t been broken yet, I will use a smaller volume. If price breaks out and the candle closes to confirm above the trendline, then I’ll consider adding more to the position.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The content above reflects only my personal viewpoint and trading plan, not investment advice. Everyone should evaluate for themselves, manage capital, follow the Stop Loss, and take responsibility for their trading decisions.

BTC 11.09.2026

Yesterday’s scenario played out exactly as planned. BTC is now back in the 76K6 area and has temporarily held its price here.

Tonight, the market will be receiving US CPI and Core CPI data. The scenario I’m expecting:

If Core CPI is better than expected, BTC could gain momentum to recover from the current price zone.

If CPI/Core CPI comes in around the expected level, I still note the possibility that price could dip down to the 74K - 75K6 zone, forming a shakeout before recovering again.

Why am I still holding a Long view?

On the weekly timeframe, BTC has not yet formed a Lower Low lower than the low of last week’s candle wick. Therefore, the structure I’m following has not been invalidated, and I will continue to stick with the Long plan.

Only if price truly forms an LL and breaks this structure will I reassess the bias.

For now, there is no entry yet, so I still prioritize staying out, waiting for price reaction and tonight’s CPI data before making a plan to place orders.

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Disclaimer: The content is my personal perspective and for reference only; it is not investment advice. Trading involves risk; you should actively manage your capital and take responsibility for your own decisions.