ChainCatcher message, according to a report by Jin Ten, LBBW senior fixed income analyst Elmar Voelker said in a report that investors may focus on the number of potential dissenting votes in the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday interest rate decision. He believes there could be up to three dissenting votes, because as early as April there was a bloc vote of this size that opposed the Fed’s forward guidance.
If the Federal Reserve unanimously decides to adopt a wait-and-see monetary policy stance, this would be an unexpected development that would be favorable for the bond market, shaking market participants’ widespread expectations of a rate hike in September.
ChainCatcher message, according to Jintuo, BlueBay’s Chief Investment Officer Mark Dowding said in a report that investors have reason to believe that the Fed chair, Waller, will be inclined to make hawkish remarks and do everything possible to solidify his anti-inflation reputation, even though he will not take any actual action at present. This could, in the short term, prompt the U.S. yield curve to further flatten.
Dowding also noted that, given the continued deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation and the rising spending by Trump on the Middle East conflict, in the long run these factors may cause the yield curve to steepen again at some point in the future.
ChainCatcher message: According to a report by Nikkei Asia, at a financial summit held in Tokyo, Masaaki Kihara, chair of the Liberal Democratic Party’s “Next-Gen AI and On-Chain Finance Concept Project Team,” said that Japan’s current limit of a 2x cap on leverage trading in cryptocurrencies is “too strict.” He added that the healthy development of the market requires sufficient liquidity and a price discovery mechanism, and that loosening restrictions is a general trend.
The project team is working to adjust relevant regulatory policies with the goal of boosting market liquidity and attracting more cryptocurrency funds back to Japan.
ChainCatcher news. According to Coinglass data, the current crypto fear and greed index is 29, up 2 points from yesterday. The average value over the past 7 days is 28, and the average over the past 30 days is 23.
ChainCatcher message, according to on-chain analyst Ai Yi’s monitoring, a certain whale has withdrawn 120 WBTC from an exchange again over the past 2 hours, about $7.8 million.
As of now, this whale has accumulated purchases since July totaling 59,400 ETH and 820 WBTC, with a total value of $156 million. The average acquisition cost is approximately $1,742 and $64,329 respectively, with unrealized profit of $8.927 million.
ChainCatcher message, according to charts published by independent analyst Markus Thielen, show a clear divergence between the Bitcoin price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI recently fell to the 30% oversold zone, then rebounded and rose back to around the 50% level, while the BTC price also rebounded from near the lows to about $64,645.
Of note is that the chart’s purple descending trend line indicates that since the June 2025 peak (about $125,000), BTC has been moving within a downward channel. The current price is still being suppressed by this pressure line, and whether it can break through effectively will be key to judging the subsequent trend.
Brazilian Police Freeze About USD 196 Million in Assets Tied to a Drug Trafficking Gang Using Cryptocurrency Money Laundering
ChainCatcher report: In Operation Commodity, the Brazilian Federal Police targeted a drug trafficking gang that laundered money using cryptocurrencies. Since 2021, the gang has smuggled more than 6.5 tons of cocaine from the Port of Rio de Janeiro to Europe. The drugs were concealed in shipments of coffee, cement, and mortar. Actions covered São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Santa Catarina, and Espírito Santo. Police carried out 13 preventive arrests and 44 search and seizure warrants. The court ordered the seizure of assets and the freezing of up to BRL 1 billion (about USD 196 million). Police said the group is linked to Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho (CV), and laundered money through a luxury car dealership and shell companies in the Greater São Paulo area. The related dealerships sold vehicles including Ferrari, Porsche, Corvette, and Land Rover.
ChainCatcher message, according to JIN10 reports, Changxin Technology has listed on the STAR Market. During the day, it surged more than 530% at one point, with a market value of 3.61 trillion yuan, ranking first on A-shares, surpassing U.S.-listed Intel’s closing market cap on July 24 by 7. It had a market cap of $46.56 billion (about RMB 315 million). N Changxin is currently up 526%, trading at 54.4 yuan, with transaction value exceeding 120 billion yuan.
ChainCatcher message, according to Bloomberg: CME Group will launch single-stock futures covering more than 50 U.S. companies, including Nvidia and SpaceX, on July 27. The contracts will be cash-settled based on the closing price of the underlying stock. Trading will be conducted 5 days per week, 23 hours per day. CME has partnered with more than 35 retail brokers and plans to promote the product to institutional investors.
Data: Spot XRP ETFs recorded net inflows of $8.1526 million last week
ChainCatcher message. According to SoSoValue data, on last week’s trading days (July 20 to July 24, Eastern Time), spot XRP ETFs saw net inflows of $8.1526 million. The spot XRP ETF with the largest net inflow last week was Franklin Templeton’s ETF XRPZ, with a weekly net inflow of $5.6617 million. As of now, XRPZ’s historical total net inflow has reached $421 million. Next came the Bitwise ETF XRP, with a weekly net inflow of $2.4909 million, and a historical total net inflow of $501 million. As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of spot XRP ETFs was $997 million. The ETF net asset ratio (market value as a share of XRP’s total market cap) reached 1.46%, and cumulative historical net inflows have already reached $1.49 billion.
Data: SOL spot ETFs saw net inflows of $7.2 million last week
ChainCatcher report: According to SoSoValue data, during the trading days last week (from July 20 to July 24, Eastern Time), SOL spot ETFs saw net inflows of $7.2 million. The SOL spot ETF with the highest net inflow last week was the Bitwise ETF BSOL, with a weekly net inflow of $8.4745 million. BSOL’s total historical net inflow is currently $908 million. The SOL spot ETF with the highest net outflow last week was the Fidelity Solana Fund ETF FSOL, with a weekly net outflow of $0.6866 million. FSOL’s total historical net inflow is currently $196 million. Next was the Grayscale Solana Trust GSOL, with a weekly net outflow of $0.5855 million; its total historical net inflow is currently $108 million.
Data: Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows of $104 million last week, continuing for 3 consecutive weeks
ChainCatcher reported, citing SoSoValue data: over the past week’s trading days (from July 20 to July 24, Eastern Time), Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $104 million. The Ethereum spot ETF with the highest net inflow last week was BlackRock’s ETF ETHA, with a weekly net inflow of $96.30 million. ETHA’s cumulative net inflow to date is $11.41 billion. Next was Grayscale’s Ethereum mini trust, ETH, with a weekly net inflow of $9.9362 million, bringing its cumulative net inflow to $1.81 billion. The Ethereum spot ETF with the highest net outflow last week was Fidelity’s ETF FETH, with a weekly net outflow of $6.1804 million. FETH’s cumulative net inflow to date is $2.12 billion.
Data: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $33.79 million last week, with net inflows for 3 consecutive weeks
ChainCatcher reports: According to SoSoValue data, on the trading days of last week (from July 20 to July 24, Eastern Time), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $33.79 million. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest net inflow last week was Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust BTC, with a weekly net inflow of $85.78 million. Currently, BTC’s total historical net inflow is $2.65 billion. Secondly, Ark & 21 Shares ETF ARKB has a weekly net inflow of $78.73 million. At present, ARKB’s total historical net inflow reaches $1.33 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest net outflow last week was BlackRock’s ETF IBIT, with a weekly net outflow of $95.90 million. Currently, IBIT’s total historical net inflow is $60.39 billion.
ChainCatcher message: DRAM leader CXMT (688825.SH) made its debut on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board today. During the session, the intraday gains kept expanding. As of the time of writing, the stock price is 54.35 yuan, up 527.60% from the issue price of 8.66 yuan. The trading value has already reached 117.284 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of over 56%. The total market capitalization is about 3.63 trillion yuan, remaining firmly in first place on the A-share market. The stock opened at 49.50 yuan, hit an intraday low of 38.11 yuan, and its current trailing P/E ratio is about 36.70x.
Lighter: HYPE and ZEC briefly saw intense volatility; trading bot lost about $482,000
ChainCatcher message: Lighter posted on X that a certain trading bot experienced a malfunction on July 25, briefly affecting the HYPE and ZEC markets. During the event, the HYPE price touched $60.96 and $56.31 in succession within half a minute, while the external trading price at the same time was around $58. The price then recovered within one minute. There were no forced liquidations across the whole market, and the losses were limited only to the account that caused the issue. The bot was launched with $500,000 in capital. Within 5 minutes, it made and unwound round-trip trades totaling $27 million on HYPE, accounting for 74.2% of market volume; on ZEC it generated a $220.8 million order-taking amount, or 86.7%, which caused the ZEC price to briefly rise to $521. Lighter said the risk engine marks positions using anti-manipulation fair price, and rejects 801 orders when margin is insufficient. In the end, the bot lost about $482,000, all from its own funds. Lighter’s Liquidity Pool (LLP) gained about $143,000, and 40 independent accounts each profited more than $1,000.
Data: USDD supply on TRON on the Wave/Tron network grows by $145 million in a single week; total supply surpasses $1.23 billion
According to a ChainCatcher report, based on statistics from CertiK Skynet, over the past week the supply of USDD on the TRON network increased significantly by about $145 million, bringing the total supply to over $1.23 billion, which is approximately 81.6% of the total USDD supply across the network. As of now, USDD’s total supply across the network is $1.55 billion, with TVL exceeding $2.33 billion. Recently, with the booming TRON DeFi Summer, liquidity in the TRON ecosystem on the Wave/Tron network has shown an explosive growth trend. Among them, USDD’s TVL on JustLend has exceeded $450 million. USDD’s official Chinese account stated, “USDD’s growth on TRON is unstoppable.” This round of USDD growth further solidifies its leading position in the TRON ecosystem and its top-tier standing in the overall stablecoin sector.
ChainCatcher message: In the US, fast-food chain Steak n Shake posted on social media that Bitcoin payments will be included in its Bitcoin strategic reserve.
“Compared with credit cards, the processing fees we save allow us to reinvest the funds in improving the quality of our products and services. Bitcoin users’ loyalty is second to none.”
ChainCatcher message: According to RootData, a Web3 asset data platform, Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock approximately 6.42 million tokens on August 03 at 8:00 AM Beijing time, worth about $2.32 million.
Data: GMGN's Hot Sector CATE has a 24h gain of +363K%
ChainCatcher news: According to GMGN data, the top 5 most popular sector tokens in the past 24 hours are as follows: 1.CATE(Ai66....ump):Current price is $0.0085, market cap is $7.86 million, 24h change is +363K%, 24h trading volume is $38.06 million, number of trades 300,896; 2.Jimothy(Ge87....ump):Current price is $0.0071, market cap is $7.04 million, 24h change is -43.8%, 24h trading volume is $17.11 million, number of trades 84,948; 3.SalaryCat(GiRr....ump):Current price is $0.0002, market cap is $0.17 million, 24h change is +7.82K%, 24h trading volume is $5.68 million, number of trades 83,376;
How was ChangXin with a target price of 116 yuan and a market cap of 7.9 trillion yuan created?
Author: Dream of the Fourth Dimension
Today, Nomura issued its first coverage report on ChangXin Memory, rating it a Buy with a target price of 116 yuan. The report’s cover also indicates an issue price of 8.66 yuan and an implied upside of +1239.5%. This is also, to date, the highest target price the author has seen from overseas institutions for ChangXin Memory—arguably one of the most aggressive valuation reports in the current market. 1. How was the 116 yuan calculated? Valuation of 20x: using the forecast 2028 earnings per share of 5.8 yuan yields a target price of 116 yuan. The key is the 20x anchor. Nomura’s reasoning is in two steps. First, it selects Micron as the reference company. Nomura believes Micron is ChangXin’s closest competitor, and that Micron’s two-year forward P/E over the past five years has fluctuated roughly between 5 and 15, with a median of 10. Second, it adds a valuation premium for the China market. Nomura used a comparison sample: ACM Research Shanghai and its U.S.-listed parent company, ACM Research. For the same business, the long-term relationship between their P/Es in the A-share market and the U.S. market has been 1 to 3 times. Based on this, Nomura assumes ChangXin will trade at a valuation of 1 to 3 times Micron’s. That implies an overall range of 10 to 30 times, with a midpoint of 20 times.