Russia’s central bank governor: Purchase limits for non-accredited investors’ cryptocurrencies are intended to protect investors
ChainCatcher message: Russia’s central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said that Bill 1194918-8 distinguishes between accredited investors and non-accredited investors and is not only applicable to the cryptocurrency space, but rather a common arrangement in regulation. Elvira Nabiullina said that the range of activities available to non-accredited investors is narrower because the government protects them through legislation so they are not forced to take risks they do not understand. She noted that the relevant measures also cover the crypto ecosystem, for reasons including volatility in the crypto market and the possibility that overseas digital assets could be seized due to alleged links to Russia. Bill 1194918-8 is expected to take effect on September 1 and be implemented in parallel with the launch of the digital ruble. The bill stipulates that non-accredited investors’ purchase limit for cryptocurrencies is 300,000 rubles, about $3,800, while accredited investors’ limit is 10 times that amount.
ChainCatcher message, according to Jin10, the CME “FedWatch” shows that the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is 36.3%. By September, the probability of holding rates unchanged drops to 19.6%, while the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points rises to 55.2%; the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 50 basis points is 25.2%.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the predicted market on Polymarket for the event “Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants” saw dramatic fluctuations in the win rate of the “Los Angeles Angels” option in the sub-market “Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants,” jumping from 58.5% one hour ago to 85.5% currently (a fluctuation of 27%). Please note the impact of any relevant breaking news.
ChainCatcher message, according to Gate market data, in the early hours of trading in the FX market, the US Dollar Index DXY fell 0.16% to 101.31; the Australian dollar to US dollar AUD/USD rose 0.23%; the US dollar to Japanese yen USD/JPY fell 0.16%; the euro to US dollar EUR/USD rose 0.18%
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket market event “Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals,” the win rate for the “St. Louis Cardinals” option in the sub-market “Spread -1.5” has fluctuated dramatically, dropping from 44.5% from one hour ago to the current 17% (a volatility range of 27.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event “Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets,” the win probability of the “Los Angeles Dodgers” option for the sub-market “Run Line -1.5” has swung sharply, dropping from 66% an hour ago to the current 12% (a fluctuation of 54%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket market for the event “Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs. Alexander Blockx,” the win probability of the option “Luca Van Assche” in the sub-market “Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs. Alexander Blockx” has fluctuated sharply. It surged from 62.5% an hour ago to the current 85.5% (a fluctuation of 23%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket market for the event “LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - LEC regular season,” the win rate for the “G2 Esports” option in the sub-market “Winner of Game 2” has fluctuated sharply—jumping from 55.5% one hour ago to the current 94.5% (a fluctuation range of 39%). Please note the impact of any sudden breaking news.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket market event “San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins,” the win probability for the option “San Diego Padres” in the sub-market “San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins” has fluctuated sharply, dropping from 48.5% an hour ago to the current 13.5% (a fluctuation of 35%). Please note the impact of any relevant sudden news.
ChainCatcher message. According to Coinglass data, if ETH falls below $1,818, the cumulative liquidation strength of long positions on major CEXs will reach $720 million. Conversely, if ETH breaks above $2,001, the cumulative liquidation strength of short positions on major CEXs will reach $342 million.
ChainCatcher message. According to Coinglass data, if BTC breaks through $67,456, the liquidation intensity of aggregate short positions on major CEXs will reach $614 million. Conversely, if BTC falls below $61,627, the liquidation intensity of aggregate long positions on major CEXs will also reach $614 million.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event “Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays,” the win rate for the “Cleveland Guardians” option in the sub-market “Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays” has swung dramatically, plunging from 47.5% from one hour ago to 24.5% currently (a fluctuation of 23%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.
ChainCatcher message, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, Chainlink whale (0xF5B...9650) received 467,180 LINK from Binance in the past 13 hours, worth approximately $3.94 million. This includes 253,920 LINK, worth approximately $2.14 million, and 213,260 LINK, worth approximately $1.80 million. The most recent transfer occurred 3 hours ago.
The whale currently holds 2.05 million LINK, worth approximately $17.70 million.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket market event “Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifiers Playoff”, the win rate of the “Aurora Gaming” option in the “Match Winner” sub-market has fluctuated sharply, surging from 74.5% one hour ago to 96.45% currently (a fluctuation of 21.95%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.
ChainCatcher message: Bitcoin News on the X platform stated that Fidelity Investments urged the U.S. Senate to pass the Clarity Act, emphasizing that clear regulation is necessary to build investor trust and maintain U.S. leadership in the digital asset industry.
Abraxas Capital — an organization that makes on-chain analysts break out in a sweat
Author: 0xFacai
Abraxas Capital is a name that feels both familiar and unfamiliar. Yes, because it often appears in reports about on-chain detection accounts. Once, it moved tens of thousands of ETH; another time, a funds redemption directly drained liquidity. These actions are easy to notice. Unfamiliar, because this institution hardly manages a public presence. It has no confirmable X account, and no employees post opinions on Twitter. Most people come to know them through labels attached next to addresses on on-chain data platforms. From TradFi to Crypto Abraxas’ starting point was traditional finance. Both founders, Fabio Frontini and Luca Celati, previously worked at Deutsche Kleinwort Wasserstein Bank. In 2002, the two founded Abraxas Capital Management in London, initially focusing on global macro trading. In 2017, the company shifted its focus to digital assets.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the odds for the “Wildcard” option in the Polymarket market “Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs TheMongolz - BLAST Bounty qualification match” event’s sub-market “Match Winner” have fluctuated sharply. The probability plummeted from 37.5% one hour ago to the current 17.5% (a fluctuation of 20%). Please note the impact of related sudden news.
Lido Responds to stETH Yield Calculation Anomaly: Issue Fixed, Oracles Upgraded, and User Funds Unaffected
ChainCatcher message: Ethereum staking protocol Lido, in a post on the X platform, said that the stETH rebase has been completed as expected and that it has also topped up the ETH yield that was omitted due to insufficient calculations. The corresponding annual percentage rate (APR) is approximately 2.29%. In addition, the protocol’s oracle has been updated and passed an audit. The new version will improve report-processing speed and help identify the root cause faster if similar issues occur in the future. Regarding the observed anomalies in yield calculations, Lido stated that contributors are still conducting root-cause analysis. More investigation details will be published in the official forum and on social media platforms later. Throughout the entire incident, users’ funds have never been at risk. At this preliminary stage, Lido believes the issue may stem from a specific edge case: the yield report omitted a validator that was in a pending deposit state, resulting in some staking rewards not being included in the calculations. Lido said that a complete incident post-mortem report will be released in the coming days to further explain the cause, the remediation measures, and follow-up improvement plans.