According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket market event “Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals,” the win rate for the “St. Louis Cardinals” option in the sub-market “Spread -1.5” has fluctuated dramatically, dropping from 44.5% from one hour ago to the current 17% (a volatility range of 27.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event “Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets,” the win probability of the “Los Angeles Dodgers” option for the sub-market “Run Line -1.5” has swung sharply, dropping from 66% an hour ago to the current 12% (a fluctuation of 54%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket market for the event “Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs. Alexander Blockx,” the win probability of the option “Luca Van Assche” in the sub-market “Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs. Alexander Blockx” has fluctuated sharply. It surged from 62.5% an hour ago to the current 85.5% (a fluctuation of 23%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket market for the event “LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - LEC regular season,” the win rate for the “G2 Esports” option in the sub-market “Winner of Game 2” has fluctuated sharply—jumping from 55.5% one hour ago to the current 94.5% (a fluctuation range of 39%). Please note the impact of any sudden breaking news.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket market event “San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins,” the win probability for the option “San Diego Padres” in the sub-market “San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins” has fluctuated sharply, dropping from 48.5% an hour ago to the current 13.5% (a fluctuation of 35%). Please note the impact of any relevant sudden news.
ChainCatcher message. According to Coinglass data, if ETH falls below $1,818, the cumulative liquidation strength of long positions on major CEXs will reach $720 million. Conversely, if ETH breaks above $2,001, the cumulative liquidation strength of short positions on major CEXs will reach $342 million.
ChainCatcher message. According to Coinglass data, if BTC breaks through $67,456, the liquidation intensity of aggregate short positions on major CEXs will reach $614 million. Conversely, if BTC falls below $61,627, the liquidation intensity of aggregate long positions on major CEXs will also reach $614 million.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event “Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays,” the win rate for the “Cleveland Guardians” option in the sub-market “Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays” has swung dramatically, plunging from 47.5% from one hour ago to 24.5% currently (a fluctuation of 23%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.
ChainCatcher message, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, Chainlink whale (0xF5B...9650) received 467,180 LINK from Binance in the past 13 hours, worth approximately $3.94 million. This includes 253,920 LINK, worth approximately $2.14 million, and 213,260 LINK, worth approximately $1.80 million. The most recent transfer occurred 3 hours ago.
The whale currently holds 2.05 million LINK, worth approximately $17.70 million.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket market event “Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs HOTU - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifiers Playoff”, the win rate of the “Aurora Gaming” option in the “Match Winner” sub-market has fluctuated sharply, surging from 74.5% one hour ago to 96.45% currently (a fluctuation of 21.95%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.
ChainCatcher message: Bitcoin News on the X platform stated that Fidelity Investments urged the U.S. Senate to pass the Clarity Act, emphasizing that clear regulation is necessary to build investor trust and maintain U.S. leadership in the digital asset industry.
Abraxas Capital — an organization that makes on-chain analysts break out in a sweat
Author: 0xFacai
Abraxas Capital is a name that feels both familiar and unfamiliar. Yes, because it often appears in reports about on-chain detection accounts. Once, it moved tens of thousands of ETH; another time, a funds redemption directly drained liquidity. These actions are easy to notice. Unfamiliar, because this institution hardly manages a public presence. It has no confirmable X account, and no employees post opinions on Twitter. Most people come to know them through labels attached next to addresses on on-chain data platforms. From TradFi to Crypto Abraxas’ starting point was traditional finance. Both founders, Fabio Frontini and Luca Celati, previously worked at Deutsche Kleinwort Wasserstein Bank. In 2002, the two founded Abraxas Capital Management in London, initially focusing on global macro trading. In 2017, the company shifted its focus to digital assets.
According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the odds for the “Wildcard” option in the Polymarket market “Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs TheMongolz - BLAST Bounty qualification match” event’s sub-market “Match Winner” have fluctuated sharply. The probability plummeted from 37.5% one hour ago to the current 17.5% (a fluctuation of 20%). Please note the impact of related sudden news.
Lido Responds to stETH Yield Calculation Anomaly: Issue Fixed, Oracles Upgraded, and User Funds Unaffected
ChainCatcher message: Ethereum staking protocol Lido, in a post on the X platform, said that the stETH rebase has been completed as expected and that it has also topped up the ETH yield that was omitted due to insufficient calculations. The corresponding annual percentage rate (APR) is approximately 2.29%. In addition, the protocol’s oracle has been updated and passed an audit. The new version will improve report-processing speed and help identify the root cause faster if similar issues occur in the future. Regarding the observed anomalies in yield calculations, Lido stated that contributors are still conducting root-cause analysis. More investigation details will be published in the official forum and on social media platforms later. Throughout the entire incident, users’ funds have never been at risk. At this preliminary stage, Lido believes the issue may stem from a specific edge case: the yield report omitted a validator that was in a pending deposit state, resulting in some staking rewards not being included in the calculations. Lido said that a complete incident post-mortem report will be released in the coming days to further explain the cause, the remediation measures, and follow-up improvement plans.
ChainCatcher message: Mango Labs founder @dov_wo shared a market view, saying, “I’m already long ChangXin Technology. In my opinion, ChangXin is a rare 1:5 odds trading opportunity: downside of 20%, upside of 100%, five-to-one payback.”
@dov_wo listed the bullish reasons as follows: low floating share ratio, regulatory intervention, and institutions’ optimism about investment opportunities below its 3 trillion market cap. The recommended strategy is: “If it opens high tomorrow, close the position right away to take the money; if it opens lower and then goes up, be patient and wait—resolve the battle within 3 days.”
ChainCatcher message, according to CoinDesk, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) told predictive market companies that when they set up large numbers of event contracts, they often exceed the boundaries of the rules.
The CFTC warned that it needs more specific information in order to evaluate each contract submission on a case-by-case basis.
ChainCatcher message: On the X platform, Jiang Zhuoer said: “ChangXin Storage will most likely open with a higher-than-previous close and surge, then retrace; on day one it reaches the all-time high. If you’re going to buy ChangXin Storage in the A-share market, the Hyperliquid funds need to be ready. The perfect script is: buy ChangXin on A-shares at market open, sell at a midday high on Hyperliquid, and on the following day sell on A-shares and buy on Hyperliquid to offset and square up.”
Why Are There Increasing Numbers of Indian Executives in the Global Payments Industry?
Author: Steven, Payment 201
Recently, I chatted with several friends in the payments industry and found a very interesting contrast. In the past few years, many people’s impressions of India in China have often come from business news. In many people’s understanding, India is a market with huge opportunity, but also extremely complex. After Chinese companies entered India, many of them went through varying degrees of adaptation: the regulatory environment, local business rules, and operating culture all differ significantly from China’s market. So many people’s first reaction is: the India market is big, but it’s hard to do. It isn’t another China.
The U.S. government has implicitly built an enterprise equity investment portfolio worth about $27 billion
ChainCatcher message, citing Fortune: the Trump administration has invested about $26.7 billion in roughly 30 equity or quasi-equity transactions. The largest single deal involves a 9.9% stake in chipmaker Intel, currently valued at about $42 billion. Other investments include $400 million in rare-earth miner MP Materials, the “golden share” retained when Nippon Steel acquired U.S. Steel, and multiple equity investments in several quantum computing companies. Reports say these holdings are spread across at least four agencies: the Department of Commerce (17 deals), the Department of Defense (7), the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC, 6), and the Department of Energy (2). Only the DFC has explicit statutory authority for equity investments (established by Congress in 2018 for overseas development projects).
BitMEX and Bitmart shut down one after another—do exchange failures indicate the bottom of the bear market?
By Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
The bearish market crash wave is still spreading. In just a week, two major crypto exchanges have announced shutdowns one after another. On the morning of July 26, BitMart, a second-tier crypto platform, published an official statement saying that after careful assessment of the company’s operating conditions, the market environment, and its future strategic direction, it has decided to orderly cease operations of its trading platform: it will stop all trading services on August 26; and it will stop platform operations on January 31, 2027. On July 23, BitMEX, the pioneer of crypto perpetual contracts, officially announced that it would stop new user registrations effective immediately, and would formally close on September 23, 2026, with many prominent crypto OGs—including CZ—posting messages expressing regret and reluctance to say goodbye. In early July, AscendEX (formerly BitMax) also announced it was stopping operations, citing MiCA regulation, market factors, and financial operating pressure as the reasons provided by the official.