爱喝咖啡的三喵小姐

Binance Alpha has reached its 100th phase. Apart from the initial 4 phases including TGE, I have basically participated deeply in the entire process. To attract new users, Alpha has iterated many times, and to solve internal competition while maintaining user retention, the rules have been changed numerous times.

User growth has surged along with the rewards provided, and there has also been spontaneous promotion (giving money is the essence of promotion). From the beginning, as long as you have traded in Alpha, you would occasionally receive a 100u airdrop ➡️ meet the points requirement to get 150u+ airdrop (on average) ➡️ points consumption (super high score in the big hair adventure island leads to high scores and demise) ➡️ segmented distribution, hold on to the high score in the first segment, directly grab the second segment ➡️ first come, first served (most users do not buy into it, and the project side is well aware, just give a little to mid-small users, and everyone can offload) ➡️ Alpha blind boxes (competing for lucky numbers turned into relying on luck, whether good or bad is up to oneself)

In March, I held on to BNB to participate in TGE. Besides getting the TGE earnings from big hair ($PARTI , etc.), the BNB coin has almost doubled.

Many people with poor hand speed and internet speed could not compete and gave up. Binance also listened to advice, with account bans, face verification, and identity verification. Personal accounts finally saw a glimmer of hope. Although it can’t return to the extremely high welfare period in April and May when Binance promoted wallet products, the current earnings are still medium to high returns during this economic downturn (crypto/social/earning) (for families with many members, earning around ten thousand a month is quite simple) #币安Alpha百文大赛 #币安alpha

Chip · A three-day bear market trip? Don’t celebrate just yet

On Friday, the S&P officially entered a bear market (down more than 20% from the end-June highs). Then on Monday, it rebounded 2.5%. Micron +5.1%, SanDisk +5.4%. And today Nasdaq futures are up another 1.1%

The reasons for the rebound are pretty solid:
1. Iran has signaled it may return to diplomatic channels, with mediators pushing a 10-day ceasefire—oil prices are cooling;
2. Reports that TSMC plans to raise prices in 2027. The words “pricing power”—for a sector that has just been beaten for “spending too much”—are the best medicine;
3. Nvidia also disclosed its passive stake in Nebius at 9.3%

But there’s one data point everyone should pay attention to: under the LSEG definition, analysts have raised their S&P 500 Q2 earnings growth forecast from 23.7% to 26%. Of the 66 companies that have already reported, 88% have beaten expectations—meaning the bar is being raised.

This is exactly the “expectations peak” mechanism I’ve been talking about all month: the more beats there are, the higher the standard gets—until one day even beats aren’t enough. That kind of expectation has already been demonstrated in advance by Samsung, TSMC, and Netflix.

Last night, JPMorgan’s Dimon said he’s not buying stocks or long-duration Treasuries right now, believing the market is underestimating risk.

So in terms of action, it’s prudent to go long cautiously—don’t chase. $BTC $ETH $NVDA.US

That lamp lit up

First thing after coming back from vacation—check that number first—it's really bright.

We wrote on 7/19: In the bottoming period, don't trust anything; the only signal that can be relied on to potentially turn higher is an ETF with consecutive net inflows for more than a week.

As of 7/20, BTC spot ETFs have already seen net inflows for 5 consecutive trading days: 268 million per day on average. IBIT alone has taken in 116.5 million, and ARK followed with 72.7 million. This is a rebound signal—allocation positions.

Where the money went specifically: out of the total net inflows of 271 million on 7/20, 84% went into $BTC, 14% into $ETH, and XRP+SOL+HBAR combined are less than 6 million.

The returned money only recognizes the hardest “big pie” BTC (BTC.D’s share has surged during the spike). This isn’t the eve of the altcoin season; it’s an “insurance-style bargain buy.” #韩国散户杠杆持仓降至三个月低点 #比特币触及一个月高点6.57万美元后回落 $MUB

#币安alpha Because there hasn’t been any new coins listed for a month, people have been spreading rumors that alpha is going to be canceled.

^_^ From what I can see for now, @币安广场 alpha points are still deeply linked to activities related to the Binance Wallet system. Also, for the U.S. stock market that the main force is pushing, it still needs alpha users to stack trading volume. So it would be very difficult to cancel it. But we’ve already started trying to add more gameplay.

Gameplay 1 is already out: you can get points by brushing products, then use points to exchange for products.

Tested personally: the 5 points on Predict were exchanged with 5 USDT. Now you can also use 5 points to exchange back for trial benefits worth 5 USDT.

So going forward, you might see points being exchanged for Binance AI memberships, points exchanging for fee-reduction voucher coupons, points exchanging for wallet product trial benefits, and points exchanging for aster contract trial benefits.

The direction is: bet small to win big 👀👀👀
$SKHYB #2026足球风潮 #WTI crude oil rises 2% to $84

ETH · The only mainstream coin winner this week, but don’t mistake beta for alpha

Quietly up: ETH is up about +7% this week to 1,860–1,880, while BTC is only up by just a bit more than 1%; SOL is also rising, though it’s still negative

Two engines: On the day CPI saw the biggest monthly drop in six years, it jumped +6% in a single day (the mainstream coin with the highest rate sensitivity); on-chain, the treasury company’s holdings are already nearing 5% of the available supply—this accumulation hasn’t stopped

Position: Turning 1,800 from resistance into support is the most important technical fact of the week. It clearly held through the weekend. On Monday, watch the 1,950–2,000 box top area—if it breaks, it’s a fake breakout and then it needs to go back and re-test

I’ve been holding for months: $LYN rose yesterday by 20 points—if you don’t sell, it just falls back. $AKE was directly shaken out. $BANK , which wasn’t on the train, jumped 10x

Market makers are they afraid I’ll get a fill? #2026足球风潮 #SK Hynix ADR premium over 25%

Sector · The code for this week’s biggest gainers list: one word—rent collection

When the market is tight, it’s more useful to look at the gainers list than the broader market.

In this week’s seven-day leaderboard front ranks: ARB, $PYTH +17.8%, UNI +15.5%, ZEC, SKY, $AAVE , Lighter

Break it down and it’s the same story: ARB is Orbit-chain fees with a 10% refund; UNI is a fee switch that siphons volume from the Robinhood chain; AAVE is a fixed-income treasury vault; Lighter is perps trading fees.

In one sentence: money is dodging “dream-peddlers” and squeezing into “rent collectors.” This is the same global deal as how this week the US stock market punished TSMC with a $100 billion capex and rewarded the insurance grocery store.

What it means operationally: high-beta alts (especially pure-story, no-revenue ones) rebound are the “get-out-of-the-way” waves; for protocols with real fee refunds, pullbacks are a configuration window.

One more reminder—when “rent collection” becomes consensus, rent-collector stocks themselves can become crowded trades; watch the funding rate and position concentration.

Chips have officially edged into the brink of a technical bear market, so this rebound is underway.

Friday’s verdict is out: U.S. stocks couldn’t hold up, and Asia followed into a plunge.

The Dow fell 394 points to close at 52,159, the S&P 500 dropped 1.01%, and the Nasdaq slid 1.4%. Over the full week, all three major indexes finished in the green.

The real hardest-hit area is semiconductors: the SOX hit its largest weekly drop in more than a year. In July alone, it’s already down about 18%, and is closing in on roughly -20% from its peak— the threshold for a technical bear market is right at your feet (casual note: it’s also up +65% year-to-date, which is the drawdown profile for all leveraged bull runs).

You’re definitely familiar with the trigger for this move: a new model was released by a Chinese AI startup (Moonshot); the market immediately imagined, “Here comes another DeepSeek moment.” Why would big tech sink trillions into capex if a follower can catch up with scraps? Add to that Bloomberg pointing out “insiders are selling,” and confidence in AI trading is squeezed from both sides.

Two vivid details: Nvidia was knocked down so far that it handed back the “world’s biggest market cap” throne to Apple. In the Dow, the top performers were Travelers, UnitedHealth, and Walmart—insurance, healthcare, and the supermarket. Funds are fleeing computing power and running into the shopping basket.

The $149 issuance-price level on $SKHYB is a life-or-death line for tomorrow’s open.
$AKE $ETH #闪迪单日跌12.63% #Iranian crude breaks through $80

SOL · Sets a record high, yet the coin price is falling—this divergence has to be understood

One of the most convoluted assets this week: SOL’s on-chain DEX seven-day trading volume hit $9.92 billion, a new all-time high. It even surpassed the weekly spot volumes on Coinbase and Kraken, forcing both of them to start integrating Solana.

Then the price: from $78 down to just over $73, a week -6%. Among major coins, it’s the weakest. The SOL/BTC exchange rate on the daily chart has also slid back to support.

The answer to the divergence: these big-volume players are driven by meme speculation, and this week the meme leader has been constantly in a battle within the Ethereum ecosystem. SOL’s leadership, andem, has been drained via a Robinhood chain “pull.” Funds and attention were diverted.

The $10 billion+ trading volume is real—but so is the market’s valuation discount on “speculative volume.”

Good news is hidden on the institutional side: Clearstream, a subsidiary of Deutsche Börse, has just added SOL to institutional custody. Spot ETF cumulative inflows exceed $1.1 billion, and in Q3 there’s also the Alpenglow upgrade (confirmation time 12 seconds → 150 milliseconds) holding things up.

Levels: Around $SOL 75 is the short-term life-or-death line. The 200-day moving average is still above 99—looking forward, the medium-term trend hasn’t reversed. Range trading is fine; don’t get greedy.

In the short term, watch whether meme sentiment can recover. In the medium term, watch whether Alpenglow can deliver. The direction of volume-price divergence repair will most likely depend on whether the next wave of meme gets a relay. On-chain, there’s also been a big dog—2m—directly pumping to 21m, a 10x move. The rumor is that the official team also got involved. See if it can build up energy and test heights above 20.

Ge87EtsjwRQbHaqQmKRno69RFTwh9bfSsm99XNxTpump
#闪迪单日跌12.63% $AKE $ASP

ETH · The strongest among this week’s mainstream coins—almost nobody’s talking about it

Quietly saying one number: $ETH ETH this week rose from 1,745 to 1,860–1,880, about +7% for the week—BTC was only up by a little more than 1 point, and SOL is still negative. The winner among this week’s mainstream coins is it.

The driving force was Tuesday’s CPI: on the day the biggest monthly drop in six years came out, ETH jumped +6% in a single day—it's the mainstream coin with the biggest sensitivity to the “rate cuts/looser rates” rebound.

On-chain, there’s also a slow-burn variable piling up: Bitmine-type treasury companies’ holdings have already edged up to about 5% of the ETH supply, and institutional accumulation hasn’t stopped.

Robinhood & base’s memes are also driving volume hard.

Position: 1,800 turning from resistance into support is this week’s most important technical fact. Hold it, and the next target is the box’s upper boundary around 1,950–2,000.

#HYPE单日跌8% #比特币年内跌32.9%ETF流出49亿美元 $AKE

$BTC Asian crash—it didn’t follow; this signal is more important than up or down

Today, Asian stocks got collectively slashed: Nikkei -4%, Taiwan -5.9%, and TSMC started by dropping 6 points or more. What about BTC? Even when pulled down, it’s still holding the support zone around 61,500–62,500.

This is the second time within three weeks—on 6/23, the day of the South Korea circuit breaker, it also stood by and watched. The logic hasn’t changed: crypto leverage is already getting flushed out by June; open interest has been pushed to a one-year low, so the market is light. When the stock market goes into de-leveraging, BTC is comparatively the most stable.

In terms of levels, it’s still the same 307-day old range box (60k–70k, the third-longest consolidation on record). The upper edge looks at 64,400 → 67,250, while 61,400–62,500 below is the support band that has been repeatedly confirmed over these two weeks.

There’s only one variable: oil. This week, fighting in the Middle East has spread to five countries; oil prices are on track for the largest weekly jump since April. When oil rises, last week’s “beautiful CPI” becomes old news—rate-hike expectations can come roaring back at any moment.

Conclusion: treat it with a range-box mindset—don’t chase direction at the midline
#亚洲股市连续第二日下跌 #SpaceX星舰测试取消股价跌4%

All of the earnings reports looked great late last night, but the market’s good news was cooled off—by September, the interest-rate-hike lineup shows no signs of easing. Even the U.S. and Iran have “broken up” again, and they also froze the other side’s $120 million. So U.S. stocks have been falling all night.

Today, the main index $BTC $ETH was pulled down directly. It’s now already at the first support level. This confirms the current round of rebound is not over yet. This is a place where you can enter long from the left side—around 1820—with 1795 as the stop-loss!!!!

On the right side, you can wait until before the U.S. stock market opens in the evening. If it doesn’t break down, you can get in with a small position. The stop-loss level is the same.
#2026足球风潮 #SpaceX首次收盘跌破IPO发行价 #grvt

Tonight’s Focus · $TSMB

TSMC will hold its earnings call today. First, separate what’s known from what’s unknown:

Known: Q2 revenue of NT$1.27 trillion (about $39.6 billion), setting a record; up 36% year over year—fastest growth in the cycle to date—staying firmly at the top end of its own guidance.

What’s unknown is the real headline tonight: whether the gross margin can hold the 65.5%–67.5% guidance range, whether the full-year “30%+” revenue guidance is raised, whether capex of $52–56 billion gets increased, and whether the CoWoS packaging bottleneck we’ve been watching all along has eased—options are pricing in volatility of ±4.8%.

It’s upstream of Nvidia. The answer will directly set the tone for the entire AI supply chain—Micron’s memory, SK hynix’s HBM, cloud providers’ capex. Tonight, it all comes down to this.

One more on-chain perspective: TSM’s tokenized version on-chain is hovering around $407 while it waits for the result—on-chain US stock players are at the same table tonight.

$TSMB
24-hour search volume for @币安广场 : 15,500%
Binance Wallet 24-hour trading volume: $6.92B
#亚洲半导体股下跌SK海力士跌超9%
#Ethereum
#alpha

CPI Recap · Sugar is real, but it has an expiration date

Tuesday was the most comfortable day of the past six months: CPI for the month at -0.4%, the largest monthly drop in six years; the year-over-year rate at 3.5% versus an expected 3.8%, jumping straight down from the three-year high of 5.0% on May 4. The core also fell to 2.6%

The rate hike odds for July dropped on the spot from 42% to 17%. The earnings reports from all five major banks beat expectations across the board: Goldman Sachs +7.6%, Nasdaq +0.9% leading the way. The chip sector also collectively regained some “life” with the move.

Now let’s take this “sugar” apart piece by piece:

This decline mainly came from the June ceasefire-period oil price plunge—though oil prices have already climbed back: Brent is at 85 and WTI is back above 80. The language from the Strait of Hormuz authorities has also changed three times in a day. Some analysts even bluntly said: “This June CPI is old news.” And on top of that, Warsh made his debut in Congress and stated plainly: “Our committee has zero tolerance for persistent high inflation.”

A September rate hike is still being priced in at nearly 60%. The real verdict will be July’s CPI (released next month)—it will factor in this round of the oil-price rebound (gradually matching the big institutions’ view that the bull market is in by year-end).
$BTC $QQQB $NFLX.US

$NES 6666 This kind of market without airdrops is still able to churn out results even more “intense” than a bull market.

Let me ask one question—when you all “compete” (get intense) at it, how much do you lose?

#BinanceTurns9 9th anniversary, Binance has you

#BinanceTurns9 9th Anniversary, Binance Has You

#grvt What’s so great about this platform? Trade BTC, ETH, gold, and perpetual futures—while your principal can still automatically generate returns! Fully self-custodied, no need to hand your coins to anyone—safe and efficient. Invest in professional strategies for as little as 1 dollar. Play with RWA and fund products like the wealthy—no locked positions, no minimum requirements! I watch the capital “work” every day, and my mood just soars. If you want every dollar to grow like crazy, hurry and go to @grvt_io now—don’t miss this wave!

After 10 days, the airdrop finally came—although it's an old coin

$STABLE can't be traded, even 100 will get you hit with a 1 buck fee, 200 also gets you a 1 buck fee, and 300 will take a 1.5 buck hit.

$STAR This competition offers a 10k reward, early bird 3x phase, at least 5000 peeps are gonna pump it. It was pretty stable back then, so the early birds were all in. Later, I checked and realized if you didn’t jump in, you’d be down 30 bucks. The remaining 3000 folks weren't willing to miss out, so they kept pushing hard, some even hit 100 bucks profit. The project team dropped 100k to get trading volume and exposure, and they likely raked in over 200k in profit, despite the backlash.