玉米-重新出發版本

I’ll pin this post. $SIREN
If SIREN breaks above 3.38 USDT, I’ll give “3000 USDT” to my followers. You’ll need to comment and follow me so I’ll know who you are; otherwise, I won’t know who to send it to.

Let’s witness this great moment together!

With the $ETH mark price below the index price, can longs receive funding? I wouldn’t judge based on this spread alone.

Binance snapshot at 07:03 UTC on November 3: mark price 2246.25, index price 2247.31255814 USDT, with the former about 1.06 lower. Yet the funding rate in the same response was positive at 0.01%.

The funding rate takes into account factors including the average premium index and the interest rate. The premium index is calculated using impact bid and ask prices; it is not equal to the mark price minus the index price. To determine who pays, check the rate applicable at settlement and your position. The rate shown in a snapshot may change, and the mark price does not guarantee execution.

This content may generate Binance creator rewards or trading commissions; rewards are not guaranteed.
AI-assisted creation; data from official Binance futures market data.

With a BNB short position and a positive funding rate, can I collect fixed interest? I wouldn’t focus only on the funding payment—price movements in the opposite direction can affect the outcome too.

Snapshot at 04:36 UTC on November 3: mark price 697.53 USDT, funding rate 0.00005449. Assume you hold a 1 BNB short position at settlement, and the mark price and funding rate remain unchanged. You could collect about 0.038 USDT. If the price rises 0.1 USDT from your entry price and you close the position at that price, the gross price difference would result in a 0.1 loss.

A price drop could also be profitable, but the funding rate can change, and payment is not guaranteed. When comparing, also account for fees, slippage, and liquidation risk. These prices are for illustration only and do not guarantee execution.

This content may generate Binance Creator Rewards or trading commissions. Rewards are not guaranteed.
Created with AI assistance; data from Binance's official futures market.

If you increase $SOL leverage from 5x to 10x, does your profit or loss automatically double? First, check whether the position size actually changed.

The first hourly candle opened at 91.95 and the last closed at 92.30 USDT during Nov 3, 00:00–02:00 UTC. Suppose you enter and exit two long positions of 1 SOL each at these two prices, and neither position is liquidated while open. The gross price difference for both positions is 0.35 USDT. The leverage differs, so the theoretical initial margin differs, but the position size has not changed, so the gross price difference remains the same.

If you keep the margin fixed and change the position size, the profit or loss may differ. These prices are hypothetical execution prices, and you must have sufficient margin. Fees, funding fees, and slippage are not included and should not be treated as actual returns.

This content may generate Binance creator rewards or trading commissions; rewards are not guaranteed.
Created with AI assistance; data is from Binance's official futures market data.

$SIREN Looks like Binance is about to kick off an artificial bull market. Everyone buckle up.

$SIREN clean up the board, so the rise feels more comfortable

He wanted a 50/50 split right away, but brought only an idea

Someone comes to you with an idea they claim is worth a billion dollars. First, they ask you to sign an NDA. Then they say you should build the website, and you can split everything 50/50. How would you respond?

Derek Sivers told a story about a meeting like this in a talk he recorded himself in 2011.

01｜Sign the NDA first, then you get to hear the idea

A friend introduced them, saying this person was a great entrepreneur with an outstanding business idea.

At the meeting, the person first stressed that this was a billion-dollar opportunity, and that Derek had to sign an NDA before they could talk about it. Derek normally wouldn’t agree, but their mutual friend had already connected them, which made him feel a little awkward.

02｜The big reveal: online dating combined with music

Next, the person wanted Derek to write the code and build the website, then find someone to run it.

They hadn’t said much about how it would actually work, but the work that needed to be done next had already been assigned to someone else.

03｜I bring the idea, you make it happen, and we split 50/50

Derek asked if they had any more details or an operating plan.

The person kept emphasizing how big a music-focused dating site could be. So Derek picked up a pen and paper and decided to use a chart to explain how he understood the relationship between an idea and its execution.

04｜Rate the idea, then multiply by execution

He gave different ideas different scores, then assigned hypothetical dollar amounts to different levels of execution, and multiplied the two.

These were hypothetical figures meant to illustrate a point, not amounts a business was guaranteed to earn. Even an astonishing idea, if never executed at all, produces a limited result when multiplied.

05｜He cared more about seeing what someone could make of it

He believed that a good idea paired with good execution could create a valuable business.

His final point was direct: the idea itself is just a multiplier. What he wanted to see was execution.

The question that meeting left behind is right there in the 50/50 proposal: Who gets to imagine it, and who has to do all the work?

If someone said, “I’ll come up with the idea, you do everything else, and we’ll split it 50/50,” would you agree?

#StartupStories #IdeasAndExecution #BeforePartnering #DerekSivers #CornStartsAgain

Source: Derek Sivers | Uncommon Sense part7: multiply (2011-08), excerpt from original video 00:04–03:09.
https://sive.rs/uncommon
Permission to use granted on his website: https://sive.rs/faq
Faithful excerpt translated from Traditional Chinese; cropping, subtitles, page numbers, and logo added in post-production by this account.

$SIREN is still working hard. What others say doesn't matter!

What matters is following the bookmakers and making money!

Are the combined gains and losses zero when the long and short positions in $ETH are the same size? I’d first look at the entry prices.

On the 1-hour candles from 00:00 to 08:00 UTC on November 2, the first candle opened at 2274.27 and the last opened at 2284.70 USDT. Suppose you went long 1 ETH at the first price, then short 1 ETH at the second, with both position sizes unchanged and valued at the same price. The combined gross P&L would remain 10.43 USDT: the price movements offset each other, but the difference between the entry prices remains.

This is a hypothetical scenario, not actual trading returns. Fees, funding, slippage, margin, and liquidation are not included. If either position size changes or a position is closed, the price neutrality no longer holds.

This content may generate Binance creator rewards or trading commissions; rewards are not guaranteed.
Created with AI assistance using official Binance futures market data.

Does winning more often with $ETH guarantee a profit? I’ll also factor in how much each win or loss is.

For the 1-minute candlesticks from 12:30–13:30 UTC on October 29, the first half-hour had 19 up minutes and 11 down minutes; the second had 13 up minutes and 17 down minutes. Assume you go long 1 ETH at the open of each minute and close the position independently at the close, with fills at the candle endpoints. The gross price differences for the two periods would be -0.67 and +6.01 USDT, respectively: you can win more often and still lose, or win less often and still profit.

This is a historical hypothetical, not a live-trading result or a strategy win rate; execution is not guaranteed, and fees, slippage, and funding costs are excluded. To evaluate your own results, consider the number of wins, profit or loss per trade, and costs together.

This content may generate Binance Creator Rewards or trading commissions; rewards are not guaranteed.
Created with AI assistance. Data is from Binance’s official futures market data.

After losing on $ETH , does doubling your position on the next trade guarantee you’ll break even? I’d first calculate the cost of continuing to lose.

For the 1-hour candles from November 1, 17:00–21:00 UTC, assume you go long at each hour’s open and close the position independently at the hour’s close, doubling the position after each loss. The first three trades, with positions of 1, 2, and 4 ETH, incurred gross losses of 5.07, 2.32, and 16.40 USDT respectively. The third loss already exceeded the combined losses of the first two. The fourth trade, with a position of 8 ETH, made a gross profit of 36.48 as the price rose, covering the earlier losses in this example—but a different price move, or another drop, might not.

This is only based on assumed trades at historical candle endpoints. It is not a live trade or a measure of a strategy’s win rate. Execution, fees, slippage, funding, and liquidation are not included.

This content may generate Binance Creator Rewards or trading commissions; rewards are not guaranteed.
AI-assisted content. Data is from Binance’s official futures market data.

$SIREN Brothers, once again, thanks to the house for sparing us. We’re getting ready to take off here 🛫

If you’re down on $SOL , do you have to wait until you break even before considering an exit? I’d look at the total position and the risks of continuing to hold from here separately.

The 1-hour candle opened at 96.01 between 18:00 UTC on October 31 and 18:00 UTC on November 1. The latest price, at 18:57 UTC on November 1, was 94.30 USDT. Assuming you bought 1 coin at the opening price, your current paper loss from the price difference is 1.71. If you continue holding and hypothetically exit at 93, you’d lose another 1.30 from 94.30, for a total gross loss of 3.01.

The price could rise later, and holding could also bring gains. Compare future opportunities, risks, and costs rather than focusing only on breaking even. There’s no guarantee the order will be filled at the stated price. Fees, funding, slippage, and liquidation are not included.

This content may generate Binance Creator Rewards or trading commissions; rewards are not guaranteed.
Created with AI assistance. Data is from Binance’s official futures market.

If I don’t add to my $ADA position, does my effective exposure multiple stay the same? I look at both notional value and equity.

For the 1-hour candles from Oct 31 00:00 to Nov 1 03:00 UTC, the first open was 0.1952 and the last close was 0.1920 USDT. Assuming a long position of 1,000 coins entered at the first open with initial equity of 19.52 USDT, the starting notional value was 195.2, or 10 times the equity. Valued at the last close, the price difference results in a loss of 3.2, leaving equity at 16.32 and notional value at 192—about 11.76x.

This assumes a single position and excludes fees, funding fees, and other positions. It is not a mark-price or liquidation estimate. If equity or position size changes, recalculate.

This content may generate Binance Creator Rewards or trading commissions; rewards are not guaranteed.
Created with AI assistance. Data is from Binance’s official futures market data.

Does an $ETH backtest have to wait for the hourly candle to close before deciding whether to enter—and can it still use that candle’s opening price? I’ll first align the time the signal appears with the entry time.

The 1-hour candle from 23:00 on October 31 to 00:00 on November 1 UTC opened at 2253.35 and closed at 2254.54 USDT. Suppose you decide to go long only after the close but enter at the same candle’s opening price: that would count the 1.19 USDT per coin increase that occurred before the decision in your results.

It’s different if the rule was established before the open. A signal generated after the close should be simulated using prices available afterward. The next candle’s open doesn’t guarantee a fill either, and delays, slippage, and fees should also be considered.

This content may generate Binance creator rewards or trading commissions; rewards are not guaranteed.
AI-assisted content. Data from official Binance futures market data.

Can ETH's historical hourly volatility be used directly as the maximum loss or stop-loss distance? I wouldn't use it that way; it's just a measure of dispersion for returns over this period.

For the 1-hour candles from Oct 30, 20:00 to Oct 31, 20:00 UTC, the 24 closing prices give 23 consecutive returns, with a sample standard deviation of about 0.166%. The worst hourly close-to-close drop was about 0.274%, already more than one standard deviation.

The sample is too short, and the worst observed value is not a ceiling for future losses. It also doesn't include intrahour volatility. Stop-loss levels should also account for strategy invalidation and your loss budget, and a price touching your stop doesn't guarantee execution as planned.

This content may generate Binance Creator Rewards or trading commissions; rewards are not guaranteed.
AI-assisted content; data from official Binance futures market data.

Can the $ETH hourly closing price represent the market’s average trading price for that hour? I’ll look at the two separately, then compare them with my own actual trades.

The 1-hour candlestick for October 31, 10:00–11:00 UTC recorded a trading volume of 40,857.388 ETH and a turnover of approximately 91.7141 million USDT. Dividing the two gives a market volume-weighted average price of approximately 2,244.74 USDT, while the closing price was 2,243.37.

The former summarizes market trades during that hour; it is not your execution price and does not predict price movements. To compare execution prices, use the same contract and time period, distinguish between buy and sell orders, and calculate fees separately. Different time windows cannot be compared directly.

This content may generate Binance Creator Rewards or trading commissions; rewards are not guaranteed.
AI-assisted content; data sourced from Binance’s official contract market data.

With the same $ETH loss budget, can the position size stay the same if the invalidation price changes? The farther away it is, the smaller the position size.

For the 15-minute candles from 04:30–06:00 UTC on October 31, the two lows were 2234.58 and 2239.45; the latest price at 06:56 UTC was 2243.86 USDT. Assuming a long position entered at the latest price with a 20 USDT budget, and using each low as the exit price, the distances per coin are 9.28 and 4.41, giving theoretical position sizes of approximately 2.155 and 4.535 ETH, respectively.

The lows are only illustrative reference points, not valid invalidation levels. A price touch does not guarantee execution; fees, slippage, funding fees, and liquidation may change the actual loss.

This content may generate Binance creator rewards or trading commissions; rewards are not guaranteed.
Created with AI assistance; data is from Binance's official futures market.

People who smile a lot are never unlucky, because unlucky people can't smile.

$SIREN

$SIREN is still moving sideways slowly. It’s better to accumulate more shares here before it goes up. Once again, thanks to the market maker for not dumping the price, so I can keep waiting.