张不烦

Just watch the oil prices; the current upper limit of oil prices is already very clear!

Since the upper limit is clear, it means: it can't get any worse! It can only get better, so overall risk assets will start to rise!

The large pancake here has been consolidating for two consecutive 4-hour candles with not much selling pressure. Currently, from the contract order book, the contract bulls' CVD is still slowly pushing up. If the bulls can exert more strength, the price is expected to rise further!

The US stock market also seems to have completed its adjustment and is ready to start the next wave of market movements!

Tonight's market will be very interesting and will determine the market trends for the next few days or even weeks! First is to fill the gap, and second is to reach the resistance level!

If the bulls continue to explode, the overall price is expected to be raised to a relatively high position. If there is selling pressure, then after the contract bulls change hands and sell off, it may trigger the next wave of one-sided decline!

Young folks, which side are you betting on?

《📊 BTC Panorama Logic Review: Four Major Paths After the Bearish Engulfing Candle, Locking in the Ultimate Gamble at 74,500 - 85,500》【Super Depth】

The price movement of Bitcoin perfectly aligns with expectations, with the effectiveness of the 70,500 support being validated once again. The daily chart is currently at a key resistance level, like and save this highly precise manual based on 'Order Flow Scissors Difference':

🔸 Technical Pathways Deeply Nested (PA):

Path 1 (White Line): Fill the 74,500 gap, directly initiating a right-side decline with the opening of the U.S. stock market.

Path 2 (Red Line): Sweep away the stop-loss of the previous high at 76,000, creating a UTAD (false breakout), completing distribution in the range of 75,500 - 79,500.

Path 3 (Yellow Line): Violently fill the 80,000 gap (the super gap from the January drop), testing the pressure at the bottom of the large-scale oscillation zone.

Path 4 (Green Line): If the U.S. stock market resonates and stabilizes at the resistance switch between 80,000 - 85,500, it will be viewed as a trend reconstruction, initiating a large-scale rebound.

🔸 Order Flow Core Divergence:

Deadly Scissors Difference: During the rise, the spot CVD continues to decline, with the upward momentum mainly driven by contract long positions and liquidations of short positions.

Capital Game: OI (Open Interest) fluctuates at a high level, with the fee turning from negative to positive. This indicates that the short fuel has been exhausted, and the upcoming risk point lies in the liquidation triggered by long positions taking profits.

🔸 Trading Plan (Execution Only Short Strategy):

Observation Point: Price behavior at the 74,500 gap after the U.S. stock market opens.

Right-Side Entry Standard: If the spot CVD remains sluggish or the contract CVD shows a top divergence, this will be the sniper point for long-term short positions.

💡 Operation Summary: Large spot holders have withdrawn, and contract longs are in play. We do not profit from the rebound but seek high-risk-reward unilateral short signals only after the gap is filled.

Do you think the main force will be satisfied with filling the 74.5k gap, or will they take the opportunity to directly break through 85,000?👇

You don't think that $RAVE is the end, do you?

This might be the first wave
When more people start to short
Maybe they'll trigger the second wave.

《📊 BTC Trend Reconstruction: False Break of the Downtrend Line, I'm Waiting for This 'Right Side' Short Signal》

The current market is extremely confusing, with a volume decrease accompanied by high positions. This is a typical unstable structure from the perspective of Order Six. Like and save this 'Right Side Short' sniper guide:

🔸 Technical Pattern Review (PA):

Daily Level: Severe volume decrease on Friday, this morning reached 73,300 (the starting point of panic selling on the daily line) and the resonance zone of the downtrend line, confirming the false break.

4h Level: Although there have been several dense selling actions, the support at 71,400 has not yet been broken, and the structure has not completely collapsed. This means that bears still need to be patient, as it currently belongs to 'left side guessing the top'.

🔸 IBIT Key Variables:

On Friday, IBIT experienced selling pressure but was then strongly absorbed, with about 1.5% space left to the upper gap. It is highly likely that it will fill the gap when the US stock market opens, creating the final frenzy.

🔸 Right Side Shorting Standards (Core Execution Logic):

Gap Filling Confirmation: Waiting for the price reversal after IBIT fills the gap.

Data Resonance: Observe CVD divergence when the price pulls back.

💡 Operation Suggestion: Entering now is the left side, the risk-reward ratio is good but it is easy to be repeatedly stopped out. I will wait for the US stock market to open to fill the gap + CVD divergence to execute a long-term short strategy.

Do you think this wave will first fill the gap and then crash, or will it directly reach the top at 72k?👇

Although I remain bearish in the medium term, in the short term, I want to pour cold water on the BTC bears; this place is a high leverage long position that has been smashed by news, and the possibility of continuing to explode shorts is very high.

$BTC touched the daily EMA 8 from above

The early bird catches the worm!

Currently, the number of long liquidations is three times that of short liquidations.

It is worth noting that the largest cluster of high-leverage long liquidations is concentrated around the $72,000 level, making this level a magnet for market makers.

I expect the price to test this level soon and possibly move further down.

Mayer multiple of ETH.

《📊 BTC Deep Review: Has the rebound ended? Not yet. The current fluctuations are more like the final buildup before a charge towards 74,500》

Although the daily line is blocked above 71k, the bullish momentum still appears strong when looking at the 4H level and IBIT's trend.

🔸 Detailed Breakdown:

Volume and Price Action: Although there was a bearish candle with increased volume on the 4H chart, the selling pressure was minimal when pulling back to 70,500, indicating that the selling has been largely exhausted, just lacking a signal for a violent surge.

Institutional Movements: On the hourly level of IBIT, aside from the opening surge, the subsequent movement has been a typical high-level sideways trend, indicating institutional control without signs of a peak sell-off.

Market Data: Spot and contract CVD remain strong, with no divergence appearing yet.

🔸 Key Levels:

Support Range: 69,500 - 70,500 (holding this level is strong).

Target Level: Around 74,500 (gap-filling logic).

🔸 Exit Signal: Unless there is a significant volume-price divergence in CVD during a subsequent surge, a true downward adjustment will not commence.

It is advisable to bookmark this post as an operation guide for this week. Do you think 69.5k will be broken?

The two trends are very similar, both at the point where the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and both are maintaining a high-level fluctuation in this small scale. Let's see if tomorrow's daily line can close as a doji star; if it does, we will continue to look upwards. If Ethereum can form a head and shoulders pattern later, then the pullback will not break below 2140-2130; otherwise, the head and shoulders pattern will not be established. Once the head and shoulders pattern is established, it needs to break through the previous high of 2370, aiming for between 2450-2500-2600.

《📊 BTC Trend Analysis: Understanding the Ultimate Short Position Target at 74,000 from the 1h Level 'Volume Stagnation'》

After confirming support at the interval bottom of 65,000, Bitcoin started a violent rebound. Through order flow (Oflow) and K-line combinations, we lock in the following trading details. Suggested to like and save:

🔸 Technical Review (PA):

4h Level: After a false breakdown at 68.5k, it quickly recovered and released the highest trading volume in the range (see Figure 1 arrow).

Although 1h shows short-term 'volume stagnation', indicating the need for a sideways absorption of selling pressure, the major structure for an upward push to 73k - 74k has already been set.

Pullback Expectation: Due to the 1h stagnation signal, a short-term pullback to the 69.5k - 70.5k area is possible, but this is only for turnover, not a trend reversal.

🔸 Order Flow Details:

Driving Force: This rise is caused by pure spot price increases leading to violent liquidation of short positions. Open interest (OI) remains low, and the funding rate shows no abnormalities, indicating that the market has not yet entered the 'peak period'.

Speculation Node: We hope to see retail investors start to go long on contracts, with funding rates soaring, followed by a price peak and pullback near the top range.

🔸 Practical Trading Plan:

Holding Period: Currently, we do not recommend trying to short at the top on the left side; bullish momentum is far from exhausted.

Sniping Position: Lock in the 73,500 - 74,000 price vacuum area.

Counter Signal: Observe whether the funding rate is overheated + whether CVD shows a top divergence.

Are you currently holding a bottom position looking at 74k, or are you preparing to execute a long-term short position strategy near 74k?

Big brother is still big brother, having earned another small goal

I went in, brothers, wish me luck

Firm

《📊 BTC Trend Review: 68,500 Defense Strategy Guide After False Breakout》

Last week's 68.5k resistance level has once again demonstrated its dominance. Since it has been confirmed as a false breakout, the current trading logic must switch from 'offensive' to 'defensive'. Like and bookmark this comprehensive strategy:

🔸 Technical Assessment (PA):

Structural Pullback: The current price has returned to the 68.5k - 65.5k range. Before testing the bottom of the 66,000 - 65,000 range, refrain from any large position operations.

Signal Capture: Only consider light positions for a rebound if a clear 'pin bar' demand signal appears near 65k or if there is a significant volume stop loss.

🔸 Dual Scenario:

Path 1 (Bullish Surge): If the war situation eases and triggers an 'air refueling' style rally, focus on observing the previous high pressure. That is our golden window for executing long-term high position short orders.

Path 2 (Bearish Spike): If extreme panic occurs, pay attention to the recovery strength after the spike at the bottom of the range; this is the 'golden pit' for buyers.

🔸 Risk Control Suggestions:

Before the war boots hit the ground, refuse to go heavy. Currently, it is only suitable for small positions to ride the range fluctuations.

The main players are testing patience, and we are waiting for the right opportunity. During the war, do you plan to bottom fish at 65k or stay in cash for that long-term short order?👇

The net buying volume of $BTC long positions and open interest (OI) continues to increase.
The upward pressure is steadily increasing.