比特币老肥btc

The imitation season hasn’t ended, but the old playbook is over

Many people’s biggest misjudgment right now is still waiting for a repeat of the previous bull market script

When BTC rises, liquidity overflows, and the imitation coins rotate across the board—buying any one of them can make money

But this time, the market structure is changing

At present, the total market cap of the crypto market is about $2.28 trillion, and BTC’s market share has risen to around 57%

This data points to a key issue

New capital is prioritizing BTC, not indiscriminately flowing into imitation coins

If an imitation season truly starts in full, you typically see two signals

First, stablecoin supply keeps expanding, bringing new purchasing power into the market

Second, capital starts moving from BTC into high-risk assets, and imitation coins show widespread volume surges outperforming BTC

But what’s happening now is

Stablecoin growth is limited, on-chain transaction activity is declining, and the contract market’s heat is also cooling

So this isn’t “the bull market is over,” but rather the market has entered a selection phase

In the future, the market won’t reward every imitation coin

Projects with capital, an ecosystem, and real demand will continue to attract liquidity

Only stories—with no volume, no user growth—may simply be reverting to a reasonable value even if they drop 90%

Next, focus on three changes

① Whether BTC’s market share begins to fall
—this indicates whether capital is willing to take on higher risk

② Whether stablecoin market cap starts accelerating again
—this indicates whether the market has new ammunition

③ Which imitation coins can continue to outperform BTC and do so alongside expanded trading volume
—this is the true signal that the capital rotation is really starting

BTC and ETH are still the market’s core assets

And for strong narrative directions like SOL, SUI, HYPE, ONDO, LINK, etc., we need to wait for capital confirmation—not fantasize early.

Also, regulatory progress related to September’s CLARITY could become a new catalyst for sectors like RWA, payments, and trading platforms

So the most important thing now isn’t guessing which coin will double tomorrow

It’s determining:

where capital is leaving—and what it’s moving into

The next opportunity will belong to those who understand capital flows

Haha, I’ve talked for half a day and it seems like I’ve said a lot, but it’s basically the same as saying nothing—here’s the summary: the bull market is still here; it’s just not the same kind of bull market where imitation coins run wild like before

$BTC

$TUT This dog farm is making a killing—longs and shorts both profit, shamelessly cutting the grass-roots (robbing investors).

My attitude toward $BTC is simple right now.

I’m not chasing longs, not bearish, and I’m not in a hurry to bottom-pick.

Over the past couple of days, the price has rebounded and sentiment has clearly warmed up as well. There are also more and more optimistic voices in the market, but from the daily chart, the rebound strength is still average—those few small bullish candles haven’t yet reclaimed the prior down move.

So my current judgment is still bearish.

For it to move sharply upward, it needs stronger momentum and capital support. Considering the current state of U.S. tech stocks and retail investors in the Korean market, I don’t have enough reasons to call for a long position for now.

But if the trend truly turns, I won’t go against it.

If you’re trading a short-term setup from this position, I think keeping the stop-loss around 1% is reasonable. The prior swings have already been large, and we’re again at a decision point between bull and bear.

So earlier I leaned more toward: wait until next week.

Next, the focus is on the data, while also keeping an eye on cross-market linkages.

Watching the U.S. market—tech stocks especially—I still believe it hasn’t fully stopped falling. In the near term, there’s just too much impulsive capital.

Gold is similar.

Gold has a huge pool of capital and very strong liquidity. Participants are complicated, and if you look only at technicals, it’s easy to overlook macro factors.

Wait for the next opportunity.

Don’t guess whether it will rise or fall—wait for the capital to tell us the direction. Don’t rush to place bets before the data comes out. Confirm the trend, then follow it.

Just three steps: wait for the data, wait for the trend, and ride the trend.

#数据 $BTC

$GIGGLE Today I saw a lot of charity giggles in many squares, and I really don’t know what you’re thinking. The higher your expectations, the greater your disappointment. This charity, I can honestly say, really broke my heart. I don’t have much left in my wallet, and I wish you all get rich.

After the “surprise letdown” in Nonfarm Payrolls, what the market is truly waiting for is CPI

In July, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly turned negative, alongside a major downward revision to prior data, further strengthening signals that the labor market is cooling

But the more notable part of this data is: employment is weakening, yet the unemployment rate is falling

This suggests the U.S. job market is behaving more like it’s “cooling off” rather than experiencing a full-on slowdown

As a result, the market quickly scaled back expectations for a September rate hike; the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields weakened, while gold and growth assets found support

But the question is: has inflation been “beaten”?

That’s what the Fed is most worried about right now

So, relying on Nonfarm Payrolls alone isn’t enough to determine the September policy. The real key now is—July CPI

* CPI rises more than expected → hawkish tilt; dollar/Treasury yields rise; gold faces pressure
* CPI meets expectations → neutral stance; the market enters a watch-and-see period
* CPI is clearly below expectations → dovish tilt; dollar/Treasury yields fall; gold gains stronger support

So don’t interpret it too simplistically as:

“Nonfarm Payrolls turn negative → rate-hike expectations fall → gold must surge.”

The actual trading logic is:

Nonfarm Payrolls weaken → rate-hike expectations fall → wait for CPI confirmation → then judge the policy direction

And don’t forget: CPI is more of an important market signal for inflation to watch; the Fed’s real focus remains the core PCE as the key policy inflation gauge

This time, the Nonfarm data has weakened the rationale for continued tightening—but what ultimately determines the policy direction is still inflation

Next, it will come down to whether CPI can give the Fed a reason to stop tightening

#美国7月非农意外下降 #gold

Tonight is NFP night. What really matters isn’t the data itself, but how the market will interpret it.

Many people fixate on the Non-Farm Payrolls numbers at 20:30, thinking “good news means buy, bad news means sell.” But the real core value of NFP data is to reflect how hot or cold the U.S. jobs market is, and it’s an important reference for the market’s judgment of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy—not a mindless go-all-in signal for traders at the exact moment the data is released.

What’s truly worth watching out for is that the market often uses the data to manufacture emotions. If tonight’s numbers don’t clearly beat expectations, most likely there will be an initial burst of sentiment-driven price action, lifting market mood and making everyone feel that risk is releasing and that the rally is about to take off. But after U.S. stocks open and liquidity is truly unleashed, the capital may only then choose the real direction. The earlier surge could just be a one-off squeeze to lure traders in.

I’m more inclined to believe that tonight won’t easily produce a one-way move. Instead, the odds are higher for price to swing up and down—recapturing positions and repeatedly cutting longs and shorts. For friends trading BTC perpetuals, more important than rushing into the first wave right after the data is released is to wait until the market completes its repricing: once the direction is confirmed, then participate.

Remember this: NFP determines market expectations. What truly determines profit or loss is how the capital uses those expectations.

#非农就业数据 $BTC

$GIGGLE history is always surprisingly similar, yet we never awaken. Watch—new lows are coming soon

The big players have basically all finished, and whoever is getting you on the bus now is just scamming you for your money. Never touch this kind of trash coin again.

Can you just short-list any one stock from this price-gain leaderboard and make money?

Brothers, don’t worry about whether I sold or not. $GIGGLE — I said it would hit 50; have we hit it or not? We did hit it, but I still think it can take off. I didn’t fully liquidate; I only sold part. Now this idea is really stupid. I won’t leave it here—full liquidate and buy at $DOGE . It won’t delay your getting rich. Only DOGE is the king of copycats.

$GIGGLE This time, the hype that CZ gave. You think it's a chance to get in; big players think it's a chance to get out. When big players rise, they’re distributing; when they can pull it up, they blame others. Only me and the dumbass are still waiting to break even. I can only say there aren’t many dumbasses like me.

Retail investors find it hard to make money from meme stocks, because in front of you is a whole army of KOLs pumping you—what are you supposed to win with?

$GIGGLE Basically, breaking through 50 is a kind of turning point; basically, it will then fall back down, so the highest this coin can go is just over fifty—not any more.

Let me say this again later: $GIGGLE —I really will eat it. What charity, no charity?

$GIGGLE My idea is really awesome. If I’m wrong, it’s wrong in the sense that I didn’t unify knowledge and action. I clearly thought it would drop, so I went short—but I still wanted to wait a bit longer.

$GIGGLE
A good news, a bad news

The good news is that it really hit 50 as I expected

The bad news is that I didn’t sell

Sinful… $GIGGLE

Rising and dipping—rising and just doing it like this, no problem
$GIGGLE