Action begins—skip the plan on the left, and follow the plan on the right to execute Plan B. The current best strategy is that next, we split the funds into two parts according to the probability of reaching the bottom.
One part uses the known 58k as the positioning for this round’s bear-market bottom. The other part continues to wait for confirmation from the time signals, but this portion of the position should, as subsequent conditions no longer break below 58k, gradually shift into the first part. Last week, at the 7W+ level, we passively bought a little; the rest is left to time.
That’s how investing works—plans can never keep up with changes. This is the cost of wanting to heavily buy in the bottom area. It’s a penalty for being off on the strategy. Don’t overthink or be anxious about what has already happened. Since new signals are given, follow the new signals and set a new plan. If you still remain indifferent, then it really is stubbornness.
Next, we’ll reduce the posting frequency. Focus on trading based on market data. After this, we’ll switch to posting irregularly—after fully allocating, we’ll post a record. There may be some small detours along the way of holding coins, but we still have to believe in the big coin, and believe that good things are about to happen!
Brothers, if you have any thoughts you want to discuss, see you in the comments!! 77200✊✊
At the drawdown area of the bottom 25%+, this rally only happens when a bear market is ending, and only at the very beginning of a bull market. At the same time, it coincides with a weekly-level hidden divergence, along with a trend showing a head-and-shoulders bottom. Any subsequent pullbacks are relatively good opportunities.
From 126k to 58k, roughly a 55% drop. Since the YoY decline itself narrowed, this time the big pie’s total amount exceeded 10% of the total, which was bought up by the Wall Street diamond hands using incremental capital, further reducing the drawdown. A 55% decline can be taken as the maximum drawdown, but it just means there are fewer coins that can be bought with a coin-denominated unit—that’s reality.
The 62k-65k range saw turnover of 213W+ (a big “biscuit”), which is 2x the 103W+ (a big “biscuit”) in the corresponding prior period’s chip peak in the 83k-86k range. The bottom turnover volume is basically sufficient to ignite the market rally—of course, the more, the safer.
The four-year 1460-day moving average line (≈ weekly MA200) holds as support (after bottoming with a period of range-bound consolidation, followed by a huge-volume second confirmation, and it happens only once in 2022; otherwise all show a bottoming), and the 200-day moving average line’s body breaks below (previously only once in 2015; otherwise all show a bottoming)
Here’s the probability I increased to 50%+ to confirm that 58k is the bottom logic for this cycle👇:
1. From a time perspective:
The 60k in February may not necessarily be the bottom zone, but after the 60k at the end of August, the subsequent rapid surge and breakout with a huge burst in volume must be taken seriously. Even if it isn’t, it’s basically not far off. The key is that at the end of the four-year cycle, the timing point about a month comes where a period of consolidation chooses to move upward—leading to an epic-scale breakout pull-up (and the time is already too tight).
📊【8.24 Bitcoin Tiger Weekly Log】58k—The probability of this round bottom surges sharply—Action
Brothers, for the past two weeks I’ve been doing jungle research and playing with quant analysis. I’ve been debugging nonstop, so I ended up missing one weekly entry and one monthly entry. I never expected that the main campaign base camp would suddenly catch fire, to the point where I had to re-examine the original plan.
Based on the data we currently have, the time left for the big cake (BTC) is getting tighter and tighter. It’s time for the left-side thinking to shift to the right-side thinking. Now is the moment to correct the earlier expectation and initiate the B plan. When you get hit, stand at attention—if things deviate greatly from the original expectation, you need to review, analyze, and summarize.
Key factors behind the explosive rise last week:
1. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s expansion of US debt buybacks (improved liquidity) 2. What Trump said: the US is considering buying a “significant” amount of Bitcoin (a potential massive bid expectation) 3. An epic-sized short squeeze liquidation, creating a squeeze-driven rally (the key reversal of the late-bear phase) 4. Expectations for rate hikes within the year dropping to almost none (macro environment improving)
And here are my personal views on this surge (DYOR) 👇:
From the divergence between CVD and OI, we can see that this rapid climb from 65k to 79k was mainly driven by spot markets—continuous passive covering by shorts. This is the opposite of the violent spot/derivatives-fueled rally at the end of 2022, where a CME massive futures move pulled price quickly away from the cost zone. That means this time the buying is truly long-term spot capital, not short-term leveraged funds, so it’s more likely to stay in the market—thereby further increasing the probability that 58k is the bottom of this round.
To be honest, it’s really hard to wait down here. The patience required is truly at an extreme level. Big BTC was expected to reach 60k by February; now it’s August, and it’s still in the 60s. That means all of the chips for these half a year have been trading back and forth within one large trading range.
Bitcoin BTC — $81,097 (24h +1.69%) 🟢 • RSI 62.2 (bullish momentum) • Resistance $82,310 | Support $75,742 • Price is above the 20-day moving average, short-term trend is up
Ethereum ETH — $2,283 (24h +0.79%) 🟡 • RSI 48.3 (slight bearish dominance) • Resistance $2,402 | Support $2,236 • Price is oscillating near the 20-day moving average
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🔥 Today's Headlines
1️⃣ Trump's European tariffs lead to $875 million in crypto longs liquidated New US tariffs on Europe triggered panic, with $875 million in long positions liquidated, BTC fell to $79,500 before quickly bouncing back above $81,000.
2️⃣ Charles Schwab officially launches spot crypto trading Managing $12 trillion in assets, Charles Schwab offers clients the ability to trade spot BTC/ETH, allowing 35 million customers to buy and sell directly, marking a milestone for crypto into the mainstream.
3️⃣ US Senators criticize DOJ's closure of crypto crime unit Multiple senators protested the Justice Department's closure of the crypto crime enforcement unit, questioning potential conflicts of interest regarding individual crypto holdings.
4️⃣ Coinbase threatens to withdraw support for crypto bill Coinbase publicly stated it would withdraw lobbying support if the Clarity Act imposed too strict limitations, with amendments still fiercely debated.
5️⃣ Bank of America CEO warns $6 trillion in deposits could flow into stablecoins Bank of America CEO Moynihan warned that if stablecoin yields continue to rise, $6 trillion in deposits could shift on-chain.
6️⃣ Barclays makes first investment in stablecoins, acquiring stake in Ubyx The UK banking giant completes its first investment in the stablecoin space, signaling a ramp-up in traditional finance's involvement.
7️⃣ Tether launches tokenized gold payment solution Scudo Tether is pushing XAUT into payment scenarios, creating a gold-backed payment solution.
8️⃣ UK cross-party committee calls for a ban on crypto political donations Concerns over foreign interference and anonymity issues prompt a recommendation for a complete ban on crypto political donations.
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📊 BTC Technical Analysis
• RSI 62.2 — Bullish advantage, not overheated • Price above the 20-day line ($79,452) — Short-term bullish • Bollinger Bands $75,747-$83,156 — Normal volatility • Light volume — Market is cautious after tariff shock
💡 Insight BTC has shown resilience amid tariff turbulence, quickly rebounding from $79,500. The $82,310 resistance level is crucial—if volume breaks through, we could see a push above $83K; conversely, a pullback to $80,000 and the 20-day line is possible. Keep an eye on follow-up from Trump's tariffs and the Senate's bill vote this week.
【Technical Analysis】 📈 BTC RSI: 76.1 (Overbought area, beware of a pullback) 📈 ETH RSI: 71.7 (Close to overbought, pay attention to risks) 🎯 BTC support level: $65,688 | resistance level: $74,994 🎯 ETH support level: $1,986 | resistance level: $2,377
【Top News Today】
1️⃣ **Bitcoin Hits Strong Resistance at $75,000** Bitcoin price encounters strong resistance near $75,000 as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices hit record highs. Analysts believe BTC needs to break through $75,000 to initiate a new rally.
2️⃣ **Tether Increases Bitcoin Holdings to $70 Million** Tether, the issuer of USDT, has increased its Bitcoin holdings by $70 million, bringing its Bitcoin reserves to over 97,000 coins, with a total value exceeding $7.1 billion. Tether plans to allocate 15% of its profits for Bitcoin purchases.
3️⃣ **UK Asset Management Giant Brings $68 Billion Fund on-chain** Legal & General Asset Management has brought a $68 billion money market fund on-chain via the Calastone token network, leveraging blockchain technology to expand access and achieve faster settlements.
4️⃣ **Pakistan Lifts 7-Year Cryptocurrency Ban** The State Bank of Pakistan has informed all banks that they can provide services to cryptocurrency service providers, but banks are still prohibited from trading or holding cryptocurrency assets. This is a significant breakthrough in the country's cryptocurrency regulation.
5️⃣ **Market Size Expected to Reach $1 Trillion by 2030** A Bernstein report predicts that the market size for prediction markets will reach $1 trillion by 2030, with Robinhood and Coinbase becoming key players. Regulatory clarity and cryptocurrency infrastructure will drive this growth.
6️⃣ **Justin Sun Criticizes Trump-Linked Project Governance Vote** Tron founder Justin Sun has criticized the governance proposal of the WLFI project as "absurd," claiming that opponents will face token lock-ups and voting exclusions. The project aims to adjust token distribution for long-term development.
7️⃣ **Morgan Stanley Bullish on Asset Tokenization** Morgan Stanley CFO Sharon Yeshaya stated that the bank is looking at a "tokenized world," where blockchain technology will allow for more efficient movement of customer assets and liabilities on its wealth management platform.
8️⃣ **Bitcoin Developers Support Freezing 5.6 Million BTC** Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp stated that freezing 5.6 million dormant bitcoins is better than letting hackers access them. As quantum computing advances, these dormant coins may pose systemic risks.
9️⃣ **Solana Political Action Committee Invests Millions** The Sentinel Action Fund, supported by the Solana Policy Institute, has invested millions in support of Republican candidate John Husted, with funding coming from the Solana network advocacy organization and Multicoin Capital.
🔟 **Allbirds Transitions to AI Computing, Stock Price Soars 400%** Shoe brand Allbirds has announced its transition to Newbird AI, planning to raise funds through $50 million in convertible bonds, marking a significant shift in the market toward GPU infrastructure.
【Investment Advice】 ⚠️ The current market is in an overbought state, investors are advised to: - Be cautious in chasing highs in the short term, wait for pullback opportunities - Pay attention to support levels of $65,688 (BTC) and $1,986 (ETH) - Maintain a long-term positive outlook on blockchain technology and asset tokenization trends - Diversify investments and manage position risks
📈 Technical Analysis: - BTC RSI: 69.5 (Bullish Dominance) - ETH RSI: 62.7 (Bullish Dominance) - BTC approaching resistance level $74,498 - ETH approaching resistance level $2,352 - Market volatility is high, risk is significant
🔥 Today's Highlights: 1. Bitcoin nearing key resistance level $74,500, a breakout may accelerate the rise 2. Ethereum strongly broke through $2,300, 7-day increase of 6.41% 3. Market volatility has significantly increased, Bollinger Band width indicates high risk and high reward 4. Trading volume is thin, market sentiment is cautious 5. Technical indicators show strong bullish momentum, but caution is needed for potential pullback risks
⚠️ Risk Warning: High market volatility, thin trading volume, pay attention to key resistance level tests. RSI is approaching overbought territory, operate with caution.
🔍 Technical Analysis: BTC and ETH RSI both reached 100, in an extremely overbought state, with a high risk of correction. BTC support at $71,885, ETH support at $2,225.
📰 Today's Highlights: 1. Extremely Overbought Alert - RSI reached 100, market sentiment is extremely exuberant 2. Significant Breakthrough - BTC broke through 74,000, ETH broke through 2,300 3. Increased Correction Risk - Prices far above the moving averages, significant technical correction pressure 4. Active Trading Volume - High market participation but risk accumulation
⚠️ Risk Warning: Market is extremely overbought, RSI reaching 100 indicates a very high risk of correction. Prices are deviating too far from moving averages, volatility is high, caution is advised for sharp adjustments.
💡 Operation Suggestions: Short-term cautious operations, consider taking some profits. Medium to long-term trend is upward but waiting for a better entry moment is necessary. Control positions, set stop-loss.
🔍 Technical Analysis: Both BTC and ETH are in a severely oversold condition, with a high probability of a rebound. BTC support at $65,598, ETH support at $1,977.
📰 Today's Highlights: 1. Oversold rebound opportunity - RSI shows severe overselling, a technical rebound is expected 2. Key support testing - BTC $65,600 and ETH $1,977 support levels are being defended 3. Institutional fund flow - On-chain data shows institutions are still accumulating 4. Volume analysis - Market sentiment is cautious, waiting for direction confirmation
⚠️ Risk Warning: The market is highly volatile, the oversold condition may persist, trading volume is thin, pay attention to key support levels.
💡 Operational Suggestions: Short-term focus on oversold rebound opportunities, while the medium to long-term trend remains upward. Control positions, build positions in batches, and set stop-losses.
📈 Technical Analysis: - BTC RSI: 74.4 (Overbought, potential pullback) - ETH RSI: 69.7 (Bullish momentum) - BTC approaching resistance at $72,521 - ETH approaching resistance at $2,238
🔥 Today's Hot Topics: 1. Bitcoin broke $72,000, but fell after Circle and Bullish ratings were downgraded 2. TD Cowen recommends three crypto stocks that may outperform Bitcoin ETFs 3. Kalshi controls 89% of the U.S. prediction market share 4. Bitcoin miners face quantum computing threats 5. Global regulatory framework is gradually improving
⚠️ Risk Warning: Bitcoin overbought may pull back, market volatility is high, trading volume is thin, pay attention to key resistance level testing.
📈 Technical Analysis: - BTC RSI: 52.1 (bullish) - ETH RSI: 56.0 (bullish) - BTC is approaching resistance at $71,999 - ETH breaks above the upper Bollinger band, may pull back
🔥 Today's Highlights: 1. Bitcoin breaks $71,900, market sentiment is positive 2. Ethereum surges, breaking $2,240 3. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization continues to grow 4. Global regulatory framework is gradually improving 5. Layer2 and DeFi ecosystems continue to develop
⚠️ Risk Warning: Market volatility is high, trading volume is light, pay attention to testing key resistance levels.
📊【4.4 BitTiger Diary】Bear Market Copying Historical Bottoms Just Looking at CVDD is Enough!
Today I’ll share with my brothers one of the indicators that assisted my decision-making in the last round of bottom fishing. cvdd: is the ratio of the accumulated dollar value of coins destroyed over days to the market age (in days).
Every bear market bottom tests the CVDD price, and many long-term holders consider it the ultimate support. This is one of the reasons I perfectly captured the bear market bottom at the end of 2022.
Many rookie bloggers (especially those who rely on traffic, loud calls, and selling courses) say that buying at over 60K and at over 40K is no different; they claim it’s the same in the long run, stating that this is the bottom, so don’t wait. However, this often ignores the real situation of ordinary people: limited funds, cannot endlessly average down, easily lose confidence when deeply trapped, and have a high probability of heavy losses in a single shot. For them, buying heavily at a halfway point (like the current position of 67K) versus buying at historical bottom areas (around 40K or even lower) results in vastly different experiences and outcomes.
There’s also the “pseudo-long-termism” viewpoint: anyway, BTC might be worth millions in 10 years; now 60K and 40K are indeed similar. But this holds true for those who have held for a few years—it’s easy for them to say, but for ordinary people who are just preparing to enter the market now, it’s like talking without feeling the pain.
Being able to identify the bear market bottom zone and the bull market peak zone reflects a person's complete understanding of Bitcoin, and I do not accept rebuttals.
Currently, the CVDD prices from major mainstream on-chain data websites are: glassnode: 45500 cryptoquant: 47962 looknode: 50224 BTCmagazine: 47445 coinglass: 47472
Each platform has slightly different parameters, but they are generally within my hitting zone of 35K-50K range. However, as Bitcoin approaches diminishing marginal returns, I also agree with Brother Bullet’s viewpoint: this year $BTC will first break below the CVDD price, just like it first broke below the 200-week moving average in 2022. Please stay tuned! Let’s strive for a doubling, doubling, and doubling of coin quantity!✊✊ BTC: 66800 #比特虎日记 #美国非农就业远超预期 #BTC行情
📊【4.2 BitTiger Diary】ahr999/Rainbow Chart Indicators have become ineffective to a certain extent
First, let's take a look at the principles and usage of ahr999: ahr999 = (Current Bitcoin Price / 200-Day Investment Cost) × (Current Bitcoin Price / Index Growth Valuation)
The bottom line (0.45) and investment line (0.45~1.2) are fixed thresholds: < 0.45 → Suitable for heavy bottom buying (historical backtesting probability around 8%) 0.45-1.2 → Suitable for normal investment. 1.2 → Price is relatively high, pause or reduce positions
However, we observe that the historical peaks of the ahr999 indicator show a clear downward trend. The reason can be found in the formula: as the market value of Bitcoin increases, marginal returns decrease, leading to the peak values of ahr999 becoming lower and lower. The bottom buying alerts will occur more frequently at lower values, resulting in a significant decrease in sensitivity and accuracy.
This result directly leads to strategies that rely solely on this indicator to buy in advance. For example, now that the bottom buying area has theoretically passed, the buying intensity should increase, but in reality, compared to previous rounds, it may only just reach the investment line range. If the bullets are used up too early, when the real bottom buying area arrives, one can only stare blankly, and the psychological burden from huge losses will greatly increase. The principle of the Rainbow Chart is basically similar to that of ahr999.
So I believe that both the V2 version of the Rainbow Chart and the V1 version of ahr999 have become ineffective to some extent. Moreover, the investment line and bottom line of the Nine God Index should not just be fixed values as the market value of Bitcoin increases; they should be decreased in a certain negative proportion. @coinglass_com Finally, let me say this: do not become obsessed with any single indicator; it is essential to cross-validate through multiple indicators and dimensions. Relying on just one may cause you to miss out or get trapped in the entire bull and bear market✊✊ #比特虎日记 #BTC #四年周期 #熊市抄底
1. Bitcoin Breaks Key Resistance Level Bitcoin price surpasses $70,000, with positive market sentiment. Analysts believe this marks the beginning of a new bull market, with technical indicators showing bullish signals.
2. Ethereum Ecosystem Continues to Develop Ethereum Layer 2 locked value reaches new highs, indicating sustained growth in ecosystem activity. Multiple DeFi protocols see significant TVL growth.
3. Global Regulatory Dynamics Update Many countries are improving their cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks, providing a clearer regulatory environment for industry development. The US SEC and CFTC strengthen cooperation.
4. Solana Network Performance Optimization Solana's daily transaction volume continues to grow, with significant improvements in network performance. The number of ecosystem applications is rapidly increasing.
5. NFT Market Trading Active Blue-chip NFT project prices rebound, and market trading activity increases. Several new projects gain market attention.
📊【4.1 BitTiger Thinking Record】On-chain Chip Structure Never Lies
Brothers, today I reviewed the chip distribution at the bottom of the bear market in 2022. I placed two images side by side and looked at them repeatedly; it was really impactful. This is one of the reasons why I firmly believe that the bear market hasn't reached its bottom, because I personally experienced what the chip structure looked like at the bottom of the bear market.
On the left is the on-chain chip distribution at the bottom of the bear market in November 2022: At that time, almost all chips were highly concentrated in the extremely narrow range of $16k-$18k (accumulation), and the market was in despair, with the bottom chip accumulation being very solid. I was staring at the screen every day, but secretly excited—blood was flowing like a river, but the opportunity was really coming!!! (However, I still played it safe and only took less than 30% of the position, confirming almost every day whether we had reached the bottom.)
On the right is the on-chain chip distribution at the top of the bull market in 2025: The chips have significantly migrated upwards, and the distribution band has widened (the wider the distribution, the more is sold off), with a large accumulation of chips at high levels (red area). These are chips for the market makers to take over. From 2022 to 2025, the chips went through a complete process from low-level accumulation at $16k-$18k to high-level distribution at $85k-$120k. This is the most intuitive process of market makers' operations in the four-year cycle of Bitcoin.
Looking back now, I have deep feelings—In 2022, I firmly bottom-fished in the low-cost zone, and in 2025, I completed my liquidation at an average price of $113k. I was fortunate to witness the complete process of market makers transitioning from extremely concentrated accumulation to high-level distribution, so I never believe anything that any KOLs or institutions say; I only believe the on-chain data I see.
Finally, I hope this wave can successfully fill the planned position✊✊