alert的会所

12.4w sold 9 units $BTC btc

Mainly scheduled to go for treatment on the 20th.

Excited in trading, but women don't make me sensitive.

And I am both flaccid and lecherous, too contradictory.

I bought $btc at 19700, 58000, 76000, only sold once at 10w, performance can be verified.

This time sell a bit at a new high, treatment comes first.

Let’s talk about trading again:

$TUT
0.027 closed the position and sold too early—now it’s 0.03, but the profit barely comes to under 30k in cash-in.

$GRVT
On the Hong Kong Exchange (Han?), shorting 0.313, and 0.34+ on the way. The basis is from the past few days’ tweets:

1. The Hong Kong/Han exchange has not provided any basis data.

2. With the air drop, he can place orders and stack bids at the GRVT main site, using the spread protection zone to push down the air drop selling price; then on OK, he unloads the goods. So after this UP, it will definitely be sold too—the character is there.

b2 has accumulated positions/chips.

Let’s talk about trading again:

Some players collect chips. Someone makes a move with a stone; I respond with a flip.

A very high-difficulty “yāo coin” trade:

On the 20th, there was discussion about BSC-chain tokens showing signs of some accumulation testing.

The challenge in laying a trap here is that the structure is there, but there’s accumulation with no volume-price action.

In other words, the chips are ready, but operations haven’t started yet.

At the time, I chose the upside for $TUT , and also for $BANK .

But the higher difficulty lies in the judgment after volume and price appear.

For many coins, the trades are no longer about going to KOLs or the community to shout out a big sell side, and then suddenly blowing it up.

Instead, they use the contract risk-control approach oriented toward BN evolution, taking a more moderate method.

Slowly blow up the opponent’s orders, or use a quant-style approach to extract liquidity.

Among them, $AKE : I took 46 shorts twice, and both times I was profitable by more than 10,000 that day. In the end, they pulled it back each time—shorting got squeezed multiple times. Finally, I cashed out 3000.

Risk and investment don’t match up proportionally, so I eventually gave up on the target.

So, as mentioned in the earlier post, yāo coins are currently in a transition period of their playbook—no longer only going one-way, or creating an opponent’s order book just to knock it out all at once.

Also, it’s hard to find an approach like the one I used when trading Han—back when it could accommodate lots of capital.

More of it is concentrated within a small range.

Let’s Talk About Trading Again: $MarsCoin
Thoughts Behind the Trade.

On the 23rd, I discussed the $GME arbitrage with people in the group. The logic was:

gme’s meme and the market cap of its stock token have a 1x price gap, with rh being the U.S. and gme as the retail-cult emblem.

Stock token 10X—set up arbitrage capital to buy stocks and move the arbitrage on-chain—push up the stock—make the stock fly—news then drives the meme to surge—stock tokens surge as well.

v2 pool: GMEmeme/GME stock pair

There is an arbitrage opportunity, and even though, after the European session opened, there still weren’t stock movements or stock tokens.

However, the Chinese and English versions’ wording led to discussions about this event.

At the same time, in the trenches of my Binance wallet, I saw $mars information. My information reserves were still only at the level of memes, retail-cult emblems, and arbitrage space.

When marscoin suddenly launched on Binance Alpha, it basically opened the window for memes on alpha.

That’s when I slapped my forehead—so it turns out that doing this both uses memes to trigger a BSC on-chain sentiment counterattack against Robinhood, and also creates a hotspot around Binance’s bStocks strategy:

1、$SPCXB is Binance’s first stock token

2、Binance actively promotes the bStocks ecosystem development, and Flap is currently the only platform that supports issuing Meme coins with bStocks as the trading pair.

3、marscoin is emitted on the Flap platform via the Butterfly platform, and Butterfly has some memes on alpha supported by Binance.

4、MarsCoin is a term CZ mentioned.

5、CZ’s hints suggest it will support and buy more innovative Meme tokens, which may include assets linked to stocks.

Step by step, each part connects to the next—and I still, even now, haven’t been deeply familiar with the Binance trenches. I only look at stock memes and the bstock narrative from a trading perspective.

When I replay it now, it finally clicks: the next bstock-themed meme is also very likely to be emitted from the Flap platform.

Meme has evolved from the fair-launch era to an innovative launch model—then into serving Binance’s strategy.

With a small cost, fast startup, and low-risk experimentation, Flap can take a prime position in the Binance ecosystem.

Going forward, we should pay more attention to the narrative of Flap launching + Binance pushing forward its strategy.

GRVT Airdrop Claim Diary: Don’t fear distant expeditions for airdrops—across mountains and rivers, it’s all just a matter of course.

They say the $GRVT project is a money pit, but thankfully I made two rounds beforehand, with some profit—otherwise I’d have lost everything, damn it.

This article is not meant to spread FUD about grvt; it’s just my diary for the airdrop claim day.

1. Getting your own deposits back is so hard—those who farm rewards have to try more.

After claiming the airdrop, I planned to get back my own deposits.

The team said withdrawals go through zks, then the third-party bridge takes 3–6 hours. (See Figure 1)

I tested several chains and found only bsc can arrive in time; the others will stall you—maybe to protect the tvl.

When I withdrew my money, with the network environment unchanged, my IP got banned. (See Figure 2)

Indeed, what the team said is correct: your money is safe—they didn’t move my funds.

2. Selling my airdrop is so difficult—we have to think of more ways.

At 8:00 alpha opens, the airdrop is claimed at 9:00, OK at 10:00—the notification says trading starts at 10:00.

In reality, trading only opened at 10:20, meaning the alpha and OKX sell-off finished by the time it reached me.

The average alpha sells out should be around 0.4—still, alpha is better.

Also, claiming is only possible on grvt’s dex; on dex trading (withdraw to an exchange is also 3–6 hours), by the time trading opens, the token price has already dropped from 0.45 to 0.23.

The exchange price is 0.27, a 3% price gap between the exchange and dex. The purpose is to bait fools into buying arbitrage, or to keep the airdrop from being sold.

Forget it, I won’t linger—let’s sell.

This is when dex convenience comes in:

If I place a market order, it protects me from the price gap—it won’t let it sell.

If I place a limit order and the sell order is posted, it drops a little; if I cancel the sell order, it jumps back.

See Figure 3 and Figure 4.

Sister Zhao grabbed my hand and said, it’s definitely because the project team lacks experience—this couldn’t really be how they’d play it.

She’s very simple, always comforting herself with others’ choices that could harm you.

I still resolutely sold anyway.

In your days ahead, you’ll encounter all kinds of situations where airdrops are hard to distribute, hard to sell, and hard to withdraw.

At that time, you need to think of every possible way and try again and again.

My experience can help you next time.

Keep it up, airdrop farmers.

They say there’s no rain outside

It’s just that the rainy season hasn’t started yet outside

When the rainy season comes, it rains as it should

I’ve been playing the US stock market for a long time—basically in years

I don’t make many moves

Even the Han River in South Korea has installed barriers

Jumping into the river isn’t so easy either

Let’s talk about trading again: the group friends’ brains aren’t working, so let’s string it together.

A big turbulence cycle where the US stock market and the macro cycle go in opposite directions

The rate-hike expectations are not really about hiking—what I forecast for the market this year is that it will trade the scenario of the strait not reopening before June (I’ve already closed that position), and that there won’t be a rate hike this year.

Changxin $CXMT is smoothing out the supply-demand premium that was overshot by $SKHY .

At 186, $SPCX 110 closed the short.

All of the above are viewpoints that aren’t written with hindsight—you can find them in past posts.

As for this time with Meilishi’s moves, I originally wanted to wait for Changxin to rise for two days and then slowly add shorts.

But Meilishi moved faster than I expected—Hanlixi’s mid-way rebound didn’t allow me much in terms of position.

It’s my fault for being too cautious; I don’t do much trading in the US stock market.

The chief said that even on the weekend, the trading volume on bst ock broke $1 billion.

This massive increase in trading volume showed up in two places:

First, when hedge funds moved their positions from Hanlishi to Meilishi.

Second, this weekend the oil price fell and Changxin listed.

From trading habits, you can see that many of them are the trading habits of traditional capital.

And it also shows that a lot of traditional capital has moved into Binance—things are developing really fast.

186 shorting $SPCX is currently 110.

I closed out all positions.

bn is live with spcx $USD1 , but unfortunately my short positions are already set up.

Otherwise I would definitely set up a spcx/usd1 long short position.

Then I wouldn’t have to worry about the 300u usd1 contract position. kpi

Once completed, I get a wlfi profit bonus.

Today we’ll observe the situation in Meili City.

Previously, I wrote a discussion about how after ChangXin goes public, it will smooth out the supply-and-demand premium of Hynix.

The logic is:

Storage is always short. If Hynix is the one supplying, when it falls short it commands a premium.

For Hynix to expand production capacity, it needs approval procedures, supporting infrastructure and power facilities—then it has to build the production lines.

Hynix executives have said this could take 2 years.

And ChangXin’s A-share listing signals the Eastern District’s determination to develop AI. (The A-share market’s role is to raise funds for national development.)

Following the normal process, ChangXin also needs 2 years. But if handled via the green channel, ChangXin’s machines can be fired up in just 8 months.

Once the machines start running and supply increases, smoothing out the supply-demand premium will be long-term.

From the process of cxmt moving from pre-market to perpetual trading, we also saw that <0>$SKHYNIX </0> Hanlix fell by quite a lot.

Now it has also recovered its losses, and some people ask: since ChangXin is so big, is Hynix still expensive?

What we need to observe here is how Meili City opens tonight—what kind of opening it will have.

But in the long run, it’s still a negative for the two forces/players.

Let’s talk about the trades again: who exactly dumped $DEXE ?
I went long on $DEXE multiple times, basically lost a lot of times, and in the end I caught a run—total profit was about $60k.

After I closed the position and took the profits, I started thinking about why the project team would do this.

The article mentions that due to the mirror mechanism, the price was dumped first, then a message was released on-chain afterward.

For every trade, I want to figure out what happened, so I dug into it and came to the conclusion:

Most likely, DWF deliberately planned the dump, and the DEXE market maker was not DWF.

Reasons are as follows:

1. By querying DEXE’s position entities via arkm, the one with the biggest reduction was ceffu. Through traceability, on July 22, Ceffu → Binance Deposit amount was about 719,727 DEXE. Ceffu either directly transferred into Binance spot, or routed through 0x98 into Binance spot. (See Figures 1 and 2)

2. Ceffu’s custodian includes DWF, and only DWF is accepted as the party that can take DEXE as collateral for lending into ceffu. According to the falcon documentation, DWF can choose to place assets into a DEX to do CEX-DEX arbitrage, or it can use the ceffu mirror to enter CEX trading strategies as a way to generate yield. (See Figure 3)

3. MirrorX isn’t simply storing assets on an exchange. Instead, it keeps the assets in Ceffu Custody, while creating a 1:1 mapped position on the exchange (a Mirror Position).

That means the exchange can directly use this mapped position for trading, risk control, margin adjustments, and price protection, while the original assets remain in the Ceffu custody system.

4. According to USDF’s revenue mechanism, falcon’s risk controls can reduce positions, sell spot, and liquidate low-pressure assets to keep the collateral system healthy. Meanwhile, according to ceffu’s official documentation, the person who initiates mirroring must be the creator or an admin.

Therefore, the holder of DEXE—or the project team—collateralized into falcon, then falcon was custodied to ceffu, and the initiator of the mirrox strategy from falcon to ceffu dumped to Binance spot. (See Figure 4)

5. If the DWF strategy had problems, leading to liquidation or selling positions: before the liquidation, ceffu also conducted a 2-DEEX transfer test via 0x98 (see Figure 2). But the actual liquidation mechanism was executed automatically—which looks even more like a planned dump.

In summary: DEXE’s sudden crash should be DWF’s planned use of DEXE as collateral in FF—dumping via ceffu in a mirrored way to dump into Binance spot.

One more thing about trading: I didn’t sleep all night and lost three times.

$DEXE one-click sell.

Based on:

The other day’s post mentioned that I transferred from chain 2.83 to a CEX.

I reduced stop-loss.

Entered at 2.2 and 1.8—stopped out twice, for a total stop-loss of $7,600.

At 1.4—cumulative—no large transfers into exchanges.

Controlled position size, and then once more.

Watched the chart for ten thousand—didn’t sleep; it went up too fast in 5.

5.3 one-click sell.

See you in the comments section to discuss in the shooter zone

Let’s talk about trading again: how long do failed trades take?

As shown earlier, I calculated that the cost of $DEXE was accumulated over 4u.

So at 4.07 I stepped in with a long position, and along the way it reached 4.8.

After scanning the chain for 1 hour, I found there was basically no transfer to exchanges.

The exchange’s chips are still the original ones, and 4u is just holding sideways.

This confirms that the 4u chips were aggregated at cost.

So I can only look further back to figure out exactly where the chips were collected.

Here, the new coins are a bit easier to find—many of them were already collected during the alpha phase.

At one point, I closed out due to a sudden fluctuation once; then at 3.8 I added again (to capture the funding rate), and after that I stopped out at break-even.

Reason for closing: the red light came on.

For controlling the position, the chips are in the exchange or in a wallet—there aren’t extra chips flowing into the trade. As the short position decreases and the red light comes on, it triggers the closing of the long position to keep a healthy position.

Holding sideways here might still mean accumulating counterparty orders, while the reason for adding was the 4u cost calculation.

And in the very first discussion, Moonhalf calculated that the win was 3u.

For myself, I use 4u as a safety boundary. Once it reaches a level that definitely triggers a stop-loss, I’ll add once using the funding-rate play and then get out. So maybe it’s a mistake in my calculations.

Just now it broke below 3u—alert triggered—then tested the 3u cost again.

Profit at 2.92: enter. If it breaks below 2.7: stop-loss.

PS:

When you open a trade, you immediately think about entering late, without looking at the logic.

Your trading conviction is only to believe in xx, and whether xx is there.

Or that it wouldn’t pull it to any level of yy.

Wasting time doesn’t mean anything either, and it will also drive people who want to discuss away into smaller circles.

Create a community with a pure trading environment.

As soon as I post the trade in the group,

no one watches my train of thought.

After dozens of people line up to go in,

what the hell is this.

Let’s talk about trading again: $BANK and $DEXE

The previous discussion was about whether a bank is a good shorting target.

The conclusion is that most of the OI belongs to the main players themselves, so their share control isn’t that high.

You need to meet these conditions:

Trading volume (not sustained)

3800w transfer (not transferred)

Basis (closing the contract long positions)

That’s why the opportunity for initiating a chase-short, along with the stop-loss strategy—since I didn’t dare to eat big—was also told to the group friends who went long when it came time to close. It was essentially selling to them at half price, and he was happy too.

If you close your position yourself, and the share structure doesn’t change, it will repeat again and again.

After that, the group discussed dexe.

I didn’t choose to do dexe anyway—it meant making a lot less money.

This dexe “shell” has been talked about for a long time. Even the market makers all know who it is.

When aggregating the data, the group friends calculated it as a 3-dollar cost; I calculated 4 dollars.

So if we put it this way, the group friends forgot within two days. If you don’t aggregate the information and then wait for late entries, it’s meaningless.

dexe’s style is one-click sell, with no bank-like repeatability.

With cost calculations plus basis chase-short—or even if, because it’s all your own OI and the share structure hasn’t changed, you compare it to the main players’ share structure—following the main players’ trades is still comparatively safer.

This kind of “feeling the short” for a 10x can be profitable, but you have to keep controlling the position and monitoring it continuously.

As for the fee issue: at the beginning it wasn’t that high. Averaging out, it was 1 point, and at the start it wasn’t even 1h.

Some group friends have already done this. Even though the profit isn’t that much, they also took on the odds, so it counts as a little something.

As for the friends who entered late and went into Micron, they didn’t look at the logic and also forgot that I had another 200k in Micron.

That’s about it. A lot of things you try to advise are useless—once things blow up, it’s still a loop. Awakening just depends on fate.

Trading Thoughts: The player behind $币安人生 is losing money—so will the player behind $BANK be making money?

Earlier, some on-chain analysis suggested that the Binance Life player’s losses were in the tens of millions.

In rave’s version, everyone feels it’s the most cost-effective trading approach—small horse pulling a big cart.

Because with spot trading, it’s hard to tighten and consolidate positions; Binance Life is essentially a lesson learned. Too many people equate “Binance Life” with the Binance brand effect. With so many people propped up, once they arrive, it becomes hard to push it.

And for bank:

There’s a tvl campaign with $USD1 . People who aren’t really making much money think it’s not worth much anyway and just leave it there.

Circulating market cap is close to 50%.

From every angle, it looks like an easy quick short setup:

Weak control, sell-pressure overhead, and the position-building/consolidation time is unknown.

And the proposal for additional issuance, along with on-chain transfers to aster, also seems like a signal of sell pressure.

This is where the fuel for this recent wave came from, and this wave will also expose 3x contracts.

At the same time, bank had 21 wallets consolidate 38M bank a month ago—this is a piece of news that many people didn’t notice.

Let’s do a rave equivalence here: if daily trading volume reaches 4B, then at the current 1.8B, maintaining it for a week could be enough too. (This is only a rough estimate; it doesn’t factor in how much of the OI is owned/controlled. If you want to trade at the highest level, you can calculate it yourself.)

Only then can there be enough counterparty flow for others to have profitable opportunities, and the highest trading volume in Binance Life is only 200M—which is also why it lost money.

Only when it’s exhausted can you enter shorts.

Back then, I observed six setups and chose the one that didn’t pump—damn.

Talk more about trading: the trader who deceives himself.

This morning, a group mate said that Korean loans have come through, the World Cup has stopped, and liquidity is back.

I asked one more question—how do you judge that?

By how much did the volume of the Korean stock market increase? How much came in to upbit? What’s the borrowing rate?

No one answered.

Yesterday, $ESPORTS started rising. Then the group mates said esports and gua are the markers I’m shorting. I dug up examples of my previous longs.

I asked: did I say it like this originally?

They said it didn’t seem like that.

All the flow is stirred up by a fallacy, and in the end it’s summarized into another fallacy to extend the influence.

You just remember that the World Cup attracts liquidity, without thinking about where that liquidity is coming from, and how much crypto is affecting it.

This time, the most short—$MU —was a supply/demand premium trade logic, like smoothing out the way Changxin does, for Hailix.

The basis is the impact of the kimi k3 on the oligarch model.

As for the US stocks, I’m used to holding long-term and using options, so I don’t open many short-term positions.

I’m doing this to verify the logic before the US market opens.

Advice is useless. I’ll just share my thoughts: trading is your own business. Don’t fantasize—don’t deceive yourself.

That’s all.

Meeting with my sister-fans

Early days: exchanges and projects would hold events, and everyone would eat, drink, and get together to have fun.

The purpose was all the same—build some connections, so it’s easier for everyone to communicate if there’s ever something later. Don’t blame me.

Now: xclub is more like building a platform to connect people across the whole ecosystem, creating a larger multiplier effect.

Horizontally:

People doing social media might be aiming to expand reach, and KOLs may focus more on traffic than on operations, which reduces conversions a lot.

This may not only break down the barriers between KOLs and a few other categories, but also achieve the 1+1 > 2 effect across what should be the same ecosystem.

Vertically:

Some people make cups—good quality and affordable.

Some people sell cups—sales champion.

Some people know that those who make bowls can also make cups, and they provide leads.

These paths for digging deeper and expanding have only collided during the very first event, and already produced a lot.

The one thing I’m least satisfied with:

The waiter who brought the food—I’m not very satisfied.

I was originally sitting in the middle of five little sisters-fans.

In the end, I sat between JK in a short skirt and Sallerfenny.

The waiter said it was convenient for serving food.

I thought, weird: can’t the food be served from <@福禄寿炒币版 >’s head?

I ate too much again!

Two female fans rolled me a slice of Peking duck, and then—gave me a piece of fish with their chopsticks.

I couldn’t hold back

One more thing about trading: the post on the 12th—€145 is still too expensive for $SPCX .

Current
As shown in the market, SPCX is priced at $127.

$120 is my closing price. I’m preparing to fully close out and take profit.

The game of high valuation but low float unlocking still works across different sectors. And don’t think U.S. stocks are the same as the “exploding contract” play either—at most, it’s just a matter of the capital/position structure.

$MU and $CRCL both broke below my cost line. MU is also a position size that’s relatively large.

Many group members only remember my $893 price for Micron and chased in afterwards.

But they forget that my big Micron position from $893 to $1100 was closed out. Those profits I never averaged down into.

Including Kuang Ge—he has already calculated my CRCL cost line.

And no matter what, I’ll still hold U.S. stocks for a long time. The accumulation period might be three months.

AI isn’t finished yet, but it’s not like crypto where if it’s up you look at $120k and if it’s down you look at $30k—the bottom after a two-week bull/bear transition.

If you don’t connect the dots—short-, mid-, and long-term expectations—and use leverage to lower your cost.

If you do it for just a few moves, you’ll lose it all. This isn’t about someone feeding you; it’s your own responsibility.

Not a hindsight story, and no kickbacks—figure it out yourself, as above.

EXchange The World。

Invited by Binance, participate in Binance’s 9th anniversary event.

Kim asked me:

If you had to describe Binance with a single keyword, what would you use?

I said:

EXchange The World—exchange with the world.

In truth, life is originally a process of giving up and gaining, and also a process of trading with the world:

Use health to exchange for career progress

Use sincerity to win a girl’s favor

Use investment to exchange for growth in value.

Give up within the space of a few inches, and only then can you gain the vastness of the sky.

Release your pursuit of mere necessities, and only then can you gain the ambition to reach heaven and earth.

Binance doesn’t just want to become yet another simple cryptocurrency exchange, but a financial platform serving 3 billion people.

At that moment, Yaya asked me:

So what did you exchange by coming to see me this time?

I chuckled and pulled out a snake-skin bag, stuffing the Binance event football into my pocket.

Then I also snagged a golden signing pen with the gate/front-door signature.

I was preparing to imitate CZ’s signature, just to look cool.

Then I put it up for 3,000 yuan on Xianyu and sold it to a fool.

Hearing that, Yaya blushed and immediately ran away.

She must be thrilled—seeing me so strongly support Binance.

Let’s talk about trading again:

Partially closing the position — $SPCX (136 sq m)

65002 is short; $BTC (went short)

Based on:

1. In the hearing, Wosher might turn hawkish.

2. The technical chart shows divergence.

Not hindsight—see the image.