Panda研究院

Welcome to the Panda Research Institute.

I mainly share trading in the crypto secondary market, and my core focus is the SMC / ICT trading framework.

This is not a signal group, and it’s not a “get rich quick” script.
What I care about more is: why you enter, where you should set your stop loss, whether the risk-reward ratio is reasonable, and whether this trade can be reviewed and analyzed.

Daily content includes:

🔹 Pre-market plans for BTC / ETH
🔹 Breakdown of market structure
🔹 Liquidity level analysis
🔹 OB / FVG / displacement / retest logic
🔹 Entry, stop loss, and take profit ideas
🔹 Trading review and risk control mindset

Many retail traders lose money—not because they don’t know how to open positions,
but because every trade lacks its own logic.

If you want to learn SMC systematically,
and change from chasing and killing (FOMO/FUD) to trading with a plan,
follow me—start with daily reviews and pre-market planning.
‼️ Three ways to join the learning camp and get guided support ‼️
(1) (For bosses with 20W or more) Register via the invitation link—free learning via DM, with 1-on-1 support.
(2) Donate to a charitable foundation / Red Cross—amount 1W or more; provide screenshots and real-name confirmation.
(3) Knowledge-paid courses
Binance fee rebate referral code: PANDA8888
Suitable for friends who trade frequently and want to reduce trading fee costs.

The rebate only helps lower costs;
the trading framework is what you can truly take away.

Risk warning: The crypto market is highly volatile. This content is for learning and discussion only and does not constitute investment advice. Trade independently, and strictly control your position size.

Every day when I wake up, I go through the market trends once, set alerts—when it hits the level, I observe and intervene with orders.

It feels really great.

The rest of the time, prepare meals, train, and on the weekend find a place to just relax and clear my mind.

Cherish these rare moments of freedom.

US Stocks:
AAOI’s optical module orders are strong, but the post details have not yet been fully verified.
He relayed information from the Rosenblatt Technology Summit. The main points were:
Demand for 800G/1.6T (high-speed optical modules that transmit 800G or 1.6T of data per second) is very strong.
Products manufactured in the United States may be sold at higher prices and yield higher profits.
AAOI’s capacity may already be booked for after the second half of 2027.
The company is unwilling to sign long-term contracts for all of its capacity at once.
Verification: AAOI’s official website confirms that the company indeed attended this summit. However, details such as “selling beyond 2027” currently come mainly from secondary meeting notes and cannot be treated as the company’s official performance commitment.

Verification: AAOI’s official website confirms that the company indeed attended this summit. However, details such as “selling beyond 2027” currently come mainly from secondary meeting notes and cannot be treated as the company’s official performance commitment.

Market impact: The long-term logic is mildly bullish, but the stock price fell 15% in one day, indicating the market has started to worry about valuation and realization risks. Fundamentals may be good, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the current level is cheap.
Demand for AI data-center transformers is indeed strong.
He emphasized that transformers are a bottleneck for the construction of AI data centers in the U.S., and mentioned that HPS.A’s in-hand orders grew year over year by 96.9%.
Verification:
HPS.A (Hammond Power Solutions, a Canadian transformer company) reported second-quarter revenue up 44.7% year over year.
In-hand orders grew year over year by 96.9%.
The company stated clearly that demand comes from data centers, electrification, and power-grid investment.
However, in-hand orders fell 6.9% compared with the previous quarter.
Plain English: Compared with last year, there are definitely many more orders, but in the most recent quarter the acceleration didn’t continue. It’s still “business is very good,” but “the most intense acceleration phase may be cooling down.”

There’s evidence supporting tight MLCC supply, though specific lead times still need confirmation.
MLCC (multilayer ceramic capacitors) are small components used in large quantities on server, smartphone, and automotive circuit boards.
He said that AI servers’ high-capacity MLCCs are in severe shortage, and that some Samsung Electro-Mechanics products’ lead times may rise from 20 weeks to 40 weeks.
Verification: Korean industry reports do support that MLCC supply for AI servers is tight, factories are operating at high utilization, and there may be potential price increases. But specific lead times like “40 weeks” and “24 weeks” have not yet been officially confirmed by manufacturers.

Market impact: Slightly bullish for component makers like Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Murata, and ECS (Yageo). But only official price increases, order growth, and rising profit margins can prove that this has translated into real profits.
Unitree Robotics: The IPO is real—don’t take all the technical promotion at face value.
He believes Chinese robotics hardware is leading, and listed several potential component suppliers.
Verification:
Unitree Technology’s IPO has been confirmed by documents filed with the SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange).
Stock code: 688836, offering price: 150.80 RMB.
But claims like “robots run faster than Bolt” and “jump higher than humans” are company demos or marketing statements and have not yet been independently verified.
The supplier list is also just a supply-chain inference and cannot be directly equated with having already received orders.

Plain English: The listing and the company’s rapid development are real; the robot shows are impressive. But whether robots can be widely deployed in factories, sustain profitability, and generate ongoing money still depends on delivery volumes, customer repeat purchases, and profit.
Hope AAOI drops to $80 before buying.
This is a clear personal opinion, not a fact and not a trading signal. AAOI is currently about $131.41, which is far from $80.

5 things worth paying attention to today

1) The US real estate market is clearly cooling
US July housing starts (annualized) were 1.239 million units, down 12.4% from June’s 1.415 million. Year over year, they fell 13.5%.

But building permits rose to 1.443 million, up 5% month over month.

Plain English: Starts have suddenly dropped, suggesting that high mortgage rates are weighing on housing. However, projects that are set up to be built haven’t collapsed at the same time—so it doesn’t yet look like a full-blown downturn.

Market impact: Slightly bearish for construction, home furnishings, and some banks. At the same time, it provides additional reasons to expect future rate cuts, which is somewhat helpful for bonds. Since reliable sources didn’t provide a unified market expectation, I won’t force in an “expected value.”

2) US industry is still growing, but it’s not exactly “hot”
Event: July industrial production and manufacturing production both increased 0.2%, below June’s 0.3%. Capacity utilization was 76.3%, which is 3.1 percentage points below the long-term average.

- Capacity utilization: How much of a plant’s existing machinery and facilities is being used. A lower number suggests firms aren’t busy enough to need large-scale expansion.
- Consequence: The economy isn’t shutting down, but demand looks relatively modest. For US equities, it’s a “not recession, but not strong enough” neutral-to-weak signal.

Markets are entering a “risk-reduction” mode
As of the previous trading day:
QQQ (an ETF tracking large-cap Nasdaq tech stocks) fell about 1.69%.
AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics) fell about 15.1%.
SNDK (SanDisk) fell about 9.0%.
CCXI (a shell company planned to merge with Agility Robotics) fell about 9.2%.
GLD (an ETF tracking the price of gold) fell about 1.72%.
USO (an ETF tracking the price of crude oil) rose about 0.30%.
Bitcoin was about $64,331, up slightly around 0.42% on the day.

Plain English: Not all assets are collapsing together—capital is moving away from the “winners that have already run a lot,” high-valuation names, and hot narratives. Oil held up relatively better, but gold and tech stocks both fell, suggesting investors are currently more inclined toward cash and waiting on the sidelines.

U.S. economic data is weak and technology stocks have clearly cooled off; demand in the AI industry is still there, but the hottest stocks are already expensive and the volatility is high—tonight is not a good time to chase gains based on news.

Lost a total of 800 points last night. I won’t do any operations involving internal structure anymore. #BTC

Recently, I mainly trade precious metals, commodities, and U.S. stocks.

TP1 Those JB brothers, #SPCX

#SPCX live short-selling three brothers congratulations to you

Well said, and well written

Wait for a US stock to open lower and then rally

Most of the underlying assets you asked for have basically pulled back to about where they should.

I originally thought those traders were pretty good—what’s happened to them now..

Are they just pushing through with sheer order-carrying the whole way?.. The techniques are different, but isn’t the market structure supposed to be different? The structure has already changed—yet they still just push orders through.

I think this kind of culture is bad. These retail investors already love to go all-in, and they don’t have that many bullets.

Can you guys enter with less than half a position size? What about them?

Later on, the anger is heavy in crypto too, and it’s heavy in US stocks and commodities as well.

Damn it—I even just try to share something and I still get scolded. You’re all to blame 😭

Are you still chasing it? Micron, Hynix, Sandisk

No matter what the target is, it can’t keep going up forever

Upside risk is more dangerous than downside

#BTC Currently it’s still forming internal structure within the W swing high and W swing low.

The recent high has not been broken yet—so the bias remains bearish. Therefore, this short position is extremely crucial. As long as the price cannot break above it on a body (candle close), I will keep holding the short position, and I may even add to it.

#BTC Currently still building internal structure within the W swing high and W swing low

The high point has not broken yet, so the bias is still bearish. Therefore, this short trade is extremely critical—right now it cannot be broken by a body candle. So I will keep holding the short position, and even add to it.

#BTC The short order from last night's live stream is still open

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