渔夫论金
微博:(渔夫论金) 公众号:(渔夫论金)币圈从业八年，黄金从业5年，全能型博主，精通链上技术分析，数据专研! 擅长中短线波段高胜率打法，实战经验丰富。
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The large pancake is currently 68900, 24h down 1.3%, fluctuating in a narrow range of 67300–69600.
The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is wavering, U.S. Treasury yields are fluctuating, combined with profit-taking at high levels and concentrated high-leverage funds, the market is weakening.
Technically, the daily bearish structure, RSI is oversold but the rebound momentum is insufficient; the subsequent rebound of the large pancake can be shorted.
Short near the rebound of the large pancake around 69500-70000, target 67000; if stabilized, can go long on the other hand.
The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is wavering, U.S. Treasury yields are fluctuating, combined with profit-taking at high levels and concentrated high-leverage funds, the market is weakening.
Technically, the daily bearish structure, RSI is oversold but the rebound momentum is insufficient; the subsequent rebound of the large pancake can be shorted.
Short near the rebound of the large pancake around 69500-70000, target 67000; if stabilized, can go long on the other hand.
Current price reported at 68800, 24-hour increase of 4.32%, currently in a weak rebound phase after a significant drop, with the long-term trend leaning weak.
On the positive side, U.S. CPI data came in below expectations, increasing market expectations for a rate cut in June, and the weakening U.S. dollar provides support for the currency price; after briefly touching the support level of 60,000 USD, the price rebounded, with a golden cross forming on the 4-hour MACD, coupled with some bottom-fishing funds entering the market, indicating a demand for recovery after the significant drop.
Negative factors are also evident, as the price has nearly halved from a high of 126,000 USD, with speculative funds withdrawing significantly; related major losses from whales have triggered sell-off expectations, along with continuous outflows of ETF funds, leading to strong bearish sentiment among institutions. Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its target price for the end of 2026 to 100,000 USD, warning that the price may dip to 50,000 USD.
From a technical perspective, short-term support is seen at 66,000, 60,000, and 58,000 USD, with resistance levels at 69,500, 71,500, and 75,000 USD, maintaining a wide range of fluctuation between 60,000 and 72,000 USD, with weak rebound sustainability.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to trade with light positions, entering and exiting quickly, and strictly setting stop-losses, as the current major trend has not reversed.
On the positive side, U.S. CPI data came in below expectations, increasing market expectations for a rate cut in June, and the weakening U.S. dollar provides support for the currency price; after briefly touching the support level of 60,000 USD, the price rebounded, with a golden cross forming on the 4-hour MACD, coupled with some bottom-fishing funds entering the market, indicating a demand for recovery after the significant drop.
Negative factors are also evident, as the price has nearly halved from a high of 126,000 USD, with speculative funds withdrawing significantly; related major losses from whales have triggered sell-off expectations, along with continuous outflows of ETF funds, leading to strong bearish sentiment among institutions. Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its target price for the end of 2026 to 100,000 USD, warning that the price may dip to 50,000 USD.
From a technical perspective, short-term support is seen at 66,000, 60,000, and 58,000 USD, with resistance levels at 69,500, 71,500, and 75,000 USD, maintaining a wide range of fluctuation between 60,000 and 72,000 USD, with weak rebound sustainability.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to trade with light positions, entering and exiting quickly, and strictly setting stop-losses, as the current major trend has not reversed.
Bitcoin is experiencing short-term fluctuations and rebounds, building a base in the medium term, and looking towards a halving market in the long term.
Support at 66500–68000, resistance at 71700–73500.
Bullish factors: ETF fund inflow, halving expectations; bearish factors: Federal Reserve's hawkish policy, pressure from trapped positions.
Bitcoin can be positioned for long positions if it retraces to 68000, with a focus on buying the dip, while strictly controlling leverage and position size.
Support at 66500–68000, resistance at 71700–73500.
Bullish factors: ETF fund inflow, halving expectations; bearish factors: Federal Reserve's hawkish policy, pressure from trapped positions.
Bitcoin can be positioned for long positions if it retraces to 68000, with a focus on buying the dip, while strictly controlling leverage and position size.
Gold is strongly fluctuating, medium-term bullish, buy on dips, and strictly control leverage.
Current price: London gold at $5033, Shanghai gold at ¥1114, gold T+D at ¥1111 with support at 1090-1100/$4850.
Bullish factors: central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risk aversion, interest rate cut expectations; bearish factors: US data exceeding expectations, pullback pressure.
Strategy: do not chase highs, gradually position on pullbacks, with a position ≤30%.
Current price: London gold at $5033, Shanghai gold at ¥1114, gold T+D at ¥1111 with support at 1090-1100/$4850.
Bullish factors: central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risk aversion, interest rate cut expectations; bearish factors: US data exceeding expectations, pullback pressure.
Strategy: do not chase highs, gradually position on pullbacks, with a position ≤30%.
As mentioned in the morning post, if Bitcoin stabilizes at 63,000, we can go long, with a maximum potential of 3,000 points.
After the sharp drop in Bitcoin, it fluctuated, falling over 12% in 24 hours, with a low of 59909 and currently reported around 63200.
Short-term bears dominate, strong support at 60000; resistance at 68000. Before the non-farm payrolls, it is recommended to trade lightly, selling high and buying low, and if it stabilizes at 63000, consider going long, with short sells during the rebound at 67000-68000. Strict stop-loss is required, and do not blindly catch the bottom.
Short-term bears dominate, strong support at 60000; resistance at 68000. Before the non-farm payrolls, it is recommended to trade lightly, selling high and buying low, and if it stabilizes at 63000, consider going long, with short sells during the rebound at 67000-68000. Strict stop-loss is required, and do not blindly catch the bottom.
Gold Short-Term Analysis (2.6)
Before the Non-Farm Payroll, gold is fluctuating with a bearish bias, and $4800/oz is a key level for both bulls and bears. Intra-day support is at 4700, resistance is at 4780-4800. It is recommended to sell high and buy low with light positions, strictly implement stop-loss, and wait for the Non-Farm Payroll to determine the direction.
Before the Non-Farm Payroll, gold is fluctuating with a bearish bias, and $4800/oz is a key level for both bulls and bears. Intra-day support is at 4700, resistance is at 4780-4800. It is recommended to sell high and buy low with light positions, strictly implement stop-loss, and wait for the Non-Farm Payroll to determine the direction.
The current price of Bitcoin is approximately 73000, with a 24-hour decline of 3.66%, continuing a high-level correction and refreshing a new low for the stage.
The technical aspect is in the ABC correction wave C, breaking below the support of 74000-75000, with resistance at 75000-76000 and 78000-80000, and support at 72000 and 68000-70000.
Short-term bias is bearish, with a rebound near 75000 allowing for light short positions, stop loss above 76500, and target at 72000; if 72000 stabilizes and forms a double bottom, light long positions can be taken, with a stop loss below 71000 and a target at 75000.
If 72000 is lost, then look down to 68000-70000, and if it stabilizes and rebounds, then look up to 78000-80000. Be aware of high volatility risks, strictly control positions and manage exposure.
The technical aspect is in the ABC correction wave C, breaking below the support of 74000-75000, with resistance at 75000-76000 and 78000-80000, and support at 72000 and 68000-70000.
Short-term bias is bearish, with a rebound near 75000 allowing for light short positions, stop loss above 76500, and target at 72000; if 72000 stabilizes and forms a double bottom, light long positions can be taken, with a stop loss below 71000 and a target at 75000.
If 72000 is lost, then look down to 68000-70000, and if it stabilizes and rebounds, then look up to 78000-80000. Be aware of high volatility risks, strictly control positions and manage exposure.
In the next 1-3 days, silver will mainly fluctuate within a range, with London silver at 88-92 USD and Shanghai silver at 22500-23500 RMB for high selling and low buying, keeping the position control within 30%.
Pay close attention to the demand zone when it falls to 85-88 USD (22500-22800 RMB). If it stabilizes and forms a higher low, you can gradually build long positions, with a stop loss set below 84 USD (22300 RMB).
If the support holds, the initial upward target is 95-100 USD (24000-24500 RMB), and after breaking through, the medium-term target can be set at 110-115.
Pay close attention to the demand zone when it falls to 85-88 USD (22500-22800 RMB). If it stabilizes and forms a higher low, you can gradually build long positions, with a stop loss set below 84 USD (22300 RMB).
If the support holds, the initial upward target is 95-100 USD (24000-24500 RMB), and after breaking through, the medium-term target can be set at 110-115.
Gold is currently in the process of constructing the ABC correction structure. After a significant price drop to area B, it rebounded in area C, reaching close to the 5100 resistance level, and then the rebound momentum weakened, currently entering a retracement phase.
In the future market, focus on the demand zone between 4750 and 4850 (D). If the price retraces to this range and stabilizes, it is expected to form a higher low, providing structural support for subsequent rebounds. If this support area holds effectively, the bulls will still have upward momentum, and the market can look towards the liquidity area above 5200 for further testing of upper resistance.
Overall, at this stage, the focus is on retracement to seek support, and the gains and losses in the 4750-4850 range will directly determine the subsequent rebound space. In terms of operations, positions can be laid out based on this range, with stop-loss set below the key breakout point of the range, targeting first near 5100, and after breaking through, looking towards above 5200.
In the future market, focus on the demand zone between 4750 and 4850 (D). If the price retraces to this range and stabilizes, it is expected to form a higher low, providing structural support for subsequent rebounds. If this support area holds effectively, the bulls will still have upward momentum, and the market can look towards the liquidity area above 5200 for further testing of upper resistance.
Overall, at this stage, the focus is on retracement to seek support, and the gains and losses in the 4750-4850 range will directly determine the subsequent rebound space. In terms of operations, positions can be laid out based on this range, with stop-loss set below the key breakout point of the range, targeting first near 5100, and after breaking through, looking towards above 5200.
Silver continues to oscillate upward, with bullish momentum gradually recovering, currently suitable for positioning short-term long trades in waves, following the trend.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to buy in batches as it falls to the 80-82 range, with a stop loss at 79, strictly controlling risks. The targets are 90→93→96→100→105 above in sequence. If it breaks through, hold on with the trend, do not blindly guess the peak, and grasp the trend market.
In terms of operations, it is recommended to buy in batches as it falls to the 80-82 range, with a stop loss at 79, strictly controlling risks. The targets are 90→93→96→100→105 above in sequence. If it breaks through, hold on with the trend, do not blindly guess the peak, and grasp the trend market.
Gold continues its oscillating upward rhythm, with the current price approaching $4950, just a step away from the $5000 round number. The bullish trend is clear, with good volume support, and short-term pullbacks do not change the upward pattern.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to gradually build long positions in the 4850-4870 range on a pullback, with a strict stop-loss set at 4830 to control risk. The targets to look for are the $5000 breakout level, and after that, $5100 and $5200. The main strategy is to hold with the trend, avoiding blind guesses on the peak, and patiently waiting for the trend to continue.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to gradually build long positions in the 4850-4870 range on a pullback, with a strict stop-loss set at 4830 to control risk. The targets to look for are the $5000 breakout level, and after that, $5100 and $5200. The main strategy is to hold with the trend, avoiding blind guesses on the peak, and patiently waiting for the trend to continue.
The Bitcoin shorts dominate, with a bearish oscillation mindset
Bitcoin is currently at 78800, with short-term downward momentum slowing. A small-level golden needle is testing the bottom near 75600, but insufficient volume makes it hard to reverse. The daily line shows a bearish arrangement, and the weekly line has seen four consecutive weeks of decline, indicating an overall weak stance.
There is strong resistance at 79500 above, and short-term support is between 75000-75500. If it breaks, it will look down to the institutional cost zone of 72000-73000; market buying is weak, and sentiment is leaning towards panic, with no clear positive news to support it, making the rebound space limited.
In terms of operation, prioritize defense, do not blindly catch the falling knife, and if there is a rebound to 79000-79500 and it encounters resistance, take a light short position with a stop loss above 80000, aiming for 76000/73000; only if it stabilizes with volume between 75000-75500 can a small position be tried for a long, with a stop loss below 74500 and an aim for 77500-78000 for quick in and out, with a single position not exceeding 10%, strictly managing losses.
Bitcoin is currently at 78800, with short-term downward momentum slowing. A small-level golden needle is testing the bottom near 75600, but insufficient volume makes it hard to reverse. The daily line shows a bearish arrangement, and the weekly line has seen four consecutive weeks of decline, indicating an overall weak stance.
There is strong resistance at 79500 above, and short-term support is between 75000-75500. If it breaks, it will look down to the institutional cost zone of 72000-73000; market buying is weak, and sentiment is leaning towards panic, with no clear positive news to support it, making the rebound space limited.
In terms of operation, prioritize defense, do not blindly catch the falling knife, and if there is a rebound to 79000-79500 and it encounters resistance, take a light short position with a stop loss above 80000, aiming for 76000/73000; only if it stabilizes with volume between 75000-75500 can a small position be tried for a long, with a stop loss below 74500 and an aim for 77500-78000 for quick in and out, with a single position not exceeding 10%, strictly managing losses.
The 4-hour cycle trend of gold is迎来关键转折, the previous downward momentum has明显衰减, the market has formed a classic 'gold needle探底' pattern, becoming an important signal for short-term trend reversal. Buying strength near the 4500 integer level持续增强, the bulls are gradually taking the initiative, effectively curbing the previous downward rhythm, and the market has officially switched from a unilateral decline to a震荡修复 pattern, significantly reducing short-term downside risk.
Based on the current market rhythm, here is a specific operational strategy reference: it is recommended to use the stabilization signal in the 4640-4650 range to opportunistically布局多单, with strict stop-loss set below 4630 to guard against the risk of a second pullback. The target position is viewed in two steps; first, look at the 4680 resistance level in the short term, if this position can be strongly突破 and stabilize, one can follow the trend to加仓 and look towards the 4800 level, grasping the wave of upward行情. In terms of operation, the focus should be on low multi, with light positions for trial and error, steadily grasping the rhythm.
Based on the current market rhythm, here is a specific operational strategy reference: it is recommended to use the stabilization signal in the 4640-4650 range to opportunistically布局多单, with strict stop-loss set below 4630 to guard against the risk of a second pullback. The target position is viewed in two steps; first, look at the 4680 resistance level in the short term, if this position can be strongly突破 and stabilize, one can follow the trend to加仓 and look towards the 4800 level, grasping the wave of upward行情. In terms of operation, the focus should be on low multi, with light positions for trial and error, steadily grasping the rhythm.
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