Guessing the BTC bear market bottom based on historical cycles We estimate the pullback from bull to bear in historical cycles The first pullback around 2011 was 94% This one can be ignored as it was very early Liquidity was poor and participants were limited The second pullback around 2013 was 87% The third pullback around 2017 was 84% The fourth pullback around 2021 was 77% The fifth pullback in 2025 appears to be less severe according to the cycle Because the market consensus is stronger With the participation of institutions Factors such as cost of building positions and miner costs after each halving Currently, we are guessing based on the historical cycle that the pullback will be less severe If this time the pullback is 70% The price will pull back to around 38000 If the pullback is 60% The price will be around 50500 I am a bit more optimistic than this data I still hold to my previous estimates Around 63000 and around 52000.$BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT) $ETH {spot}(ETHUSDT) #BTC走势分析 #Strategy增持比特币
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$BTC Explosion! CZ firmly responds to market doubts, angrily denying that Binance triggered the October crypto crash!\n\nIn the face of the forced liquidation storm that swept $19 billion in October, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) recently responded strongly, pointing out that the claim that "Binance caused the crash" is "purely far-fetched and has no evidence!"\n\nCZ bluntly stated that simply blaming a single exchange for the massive market turbulence is a complete misunderstanding of the complex market structure. He emphasized that the price collapse was the result of multiple overlapping shocks: high leverage positions clustered, liquidity instantly frozen, and a cliff-like reversal in market sentiment—definitely not the actions of a single platform behind the scenes!\n\nIn response to users' complaints about price discrepancies and system lag, CZ also admitted candidly: in extreme market conditions, the platform did face technical pressure, but this is absolutely not evidence of "market manipulation!" To this end, Binance has already set aside $600 million to compensate affected users, absorbing the losses from abnormal trading and system failures.\n\nHe further pointed out a key issue: forced liquidation is essentially the "built-in bomb" of leveraged trading. When a massive number of high-leverage positions simultaneously trigger risk control, even the largest platforms cannot withstand the chain reaction. He called on the market not to keep clutching onto the "single scapegoat" after fluctuations, but to rationally face the essence of risk management!\n\nClearly, CZ's response shifts the focus from emotional accusations back to market risk itself, while making it clear: we acknowledge system issues and compensation, but Binance will not take the blame for the overall market decline! #BTC何时反弹? #币安比特币SAFU基金
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