bull_club

Bitcoin has officially lost the $74K support zone, with price now trading around $73.6K. When a major daily support breaks like this, the next move usually comes down to one key question:

Does BTC reclaim $74K quickly (false breakdown)?
Or does $74K flip into resistance (breakdown continuation)?
This is the decision point.

The plan now is not guessing bottoms it’s waiting for confirmation.
What This Breakdown Means

$74K was a major daily decision level where buyers defended aggressively. Once it breaks:

Stops trigger below the range
Liquidity gets swept
Price often retests the broken level from below
And $74K usually turns into resistance
This is classic bear market structure
Key Levels to Watch Now

The first support zone where a short-term bounce can happen is around:

$73.3K–$73.6K

If selling continues, the next downside magnet levels are:

$72K
$70K (big psychological level)
$68K–$67K
$64K–$65K
$60K only if panic expands
The main resistance zone now is:
$74K–$75K
If BTC cannot reclaim this area, bears stay in control.
Two High-Probability Scenarios
Scenario A
Breakdown Continuation (Most Common)
What you’ll likely see:
Price bounces slightly
Returns to $74K
Gets rejected with lower highs
Drops toward $72K → $70K
Best plan:
Wait for a retest of $74K from below.
If you see rejection (wick, weak close, lower-high), that’s the classic continuation signal.
Bear confirmation:

4H/Daily closes staying below $74K
Red volume spikes
Price remaining under key moving averages
Scenario B
False Breakdown (Bull Trap for Shorts)
What you’ll likely see:
Price dips below $74K
Quick reclaim back above $74K–$75K
Support flip holds
Bounce begins
Best plan
Don’t chase the first green candle.
Wait for a daily close back above $74K, then a pullback that holds.
Upside targets if reclaimed:
$78K–$80K
$82K–$84K
$88K–$92K

Simple Trade Checklist
If you’re bearish:
Best setup: $74K retest → rejectionInvalidation: daily close holding above $75KTargets: $72K → $70K → $68K

If you’re bullish:
Best setup: reclaim $74K–$75K → holdInvalidation: losing $73.3K againTargets: $78K → $82K → $88K

If you’re neutral or spot holding:
Reduce leverage exposureScale entries only at strong supportsAvoid buying mid-drop without confirmation

What Matters in the Next 24–72 Hours
Daily close location:
Below $74K = bearish control
Above $74K and holding = false break risk
Retest behavior:
Rejection = continuation
Support flip = recovery attempt

Volume and liquidations:
High sell volume = stronger downside
Long squeezes can push price lower for
Bottom Line
BTC is now in a post-support-break zone
The key battlefield is $74K:
Below $74K with rejection → likely continuation toward $72K and $70K
Reclaim $74K–$75K and hold → false breakdown and bounce potential
Stay patient. Trade the confirmation, not the emotion.
Not financial advice.
#TrumpProCrypto #GoldSilverRebound #VitalikSells #StrategyBTCPurchase #AISocialNetworkMoltbook

$BTC
$ETH
$SOL

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may be getting close to the bottom of this downturn, according to analysts at Compass Point.
They believe that while short-term risk is still slightly to the downside, the market is now entering the final phase of the bear cycle

However, they also noted that a much deeper drop would likely require a major risk-off event in U.S. equities.

$60K–$68K Seen as Strong Bottom Zone

Compass Point’s base case expects Bitcoin to bottom between $60,000 and $68,000, with the strongest support near $65,000.

This range matters because long-term holders have historically accumulated heavily here.

Analysts pointed out that around 7% of long-term holder supply was acquired in this zone, showing strong conviction from patient buyers in past cycles.

ETF Outflows Are Adding Pressure

Bitcoin recently broke below $81,000 and fell as low as $74,500 over the weekend.
Analysts said this area reflects the average cost basis for both ETF investors and the broader market.
Since January 15, Bitcoin ETFs have reportedly seen nearly $3 billion in net outflows, and with more than half of ETF assets now underwater, outflows could remain elevated.
They also warned that the $81K–$83K zone may now act as overhead resistance.

The $70K–$80K Zone Is an “Air Pocket”

Compass Point described the price range between $70,000 and $80,000 as an “air pocket,” meaning there is little structural support in that region.
Less than 1% of long-term holder supply was acquired there, which could allow price to slide faster if selling pressure continues.

What If $60K Breaks?

If Bitcoin falls through the $60K–$68K support zone, analysts say the next major level could be around $55,000.
But they emphasized that this would likely require extreme conditions, similar to 2022 when an equity bear market and major crypto bankruptcies pushed BTC below its average cost basis.

Final Thoughts

Compass Point’s message is clear: the bear market may be entering its final innings, and the $60K–$68K range could be the key long-term floor.
Further downside is possible, but a major breakdown would likely need broader financial stress, especially in U.S. equities.
Stay cautious, watch support zones, and manage risk.

Not financial advice.


#StrategyBTCPurchase #AISocialNetworkMoltbook #USCryptoMarketStructureBill #BinanceBitcoinSAFUFund #WhenWillBTCRebound

Current gold options data suggests the market is not positioning for a strong breakout higher. Instead, traders are mainly pricing in the risk of a short-term upside spike driven by headlines or macro events.

Front-month implied volatility remains elevated around 70–77%, showing that participants are staying defensive ahead of potential event risk.

Out-of-the-money calls in the 4,900–5,100 zone are still richly priced, which signals continued demand for upside tail-risk protection. However, the upside skew is concentrated in the far tail rather than spread across the curve, suggesting this is more hedging activity than directional conviction.

In simple terms, the options market is buying protection against a sudden spike into the 4,900–5,100 range, not actively positioning to push price toward that level.

Key implications from the structure
The probability of a sharp upside spike is not high, but the impact would be significant if it occurs.
There is no clear evidence of aggressive selling pressure on pullbacks.

Sensitivity to macro, policy, and headline risk remains elevated.
Near-term risk tilts mildly to the upside, but within a broader range-bound framework.
Gold may see short-term upside spikes driven by event risk, but the options market is primarily pricing tail risk rather than confirming a sustained move toward the 4,900–5,100 zone. Overall, the structure continues to favor consolidation and range-bound price action.


#StrategyBTCPurchase #AISocialNetworkMoltbook #USCryptoMarketStructureBill #BinanceBitcoinSAFUFund

Bitcoin is once again under heavy pressure, and traders are starting to talk about much lower levels ahead. After losing key support zones, BTC is now trading below $80,000 and market sentiment has turned sharply risk-off.
Many analysts believe Bitcoin is copying the same structure seen in previous bear markets.

BTC Stuck Below $80K After Sharp Drop
Bitcoin dropped more than 6% in the last session, pushing price down near $77,600 and keeping it at ten-month lows.
So far, bulls have failed to recover important levels, and BTC remains weak below the $80,000 mark.
The loss of major bull market support zones, including the true market mean around $80,700, has increased bearish expectations.

Traders Now Watching Sub-$50K Targets
Some traders are already pointing to deeper downside liquidity zones.
One forecast highlighted $74,400 as the next major level, while also naming $49,180 as a possible larger bear market target if the decline continues.
This shows how quickly sentiment has shifted after support failed.
Loss of the 21-Week EMA Signals Bear Market Risk
A key warning sign is Bitcoin breaking below the 21-week exponential moving average.
Historically, losing this level has often preceded major bear market phases.
Rekt Capital also noted that the current move is repeating past cycles. Since the latest EMA crossover, Bitcoin has already fallen around 17%, dropping from $90,000 to $78,000.

This same crossover pattern last appeared in April 2022 before a prolonged bear market decline.
CME Gap Near $84K Could Offer Short-Term Bounce
Despite the bearish structure, some traders are watching a CME futures gap near $84,000.
CME gaps often act like short-term price magnets, and BTC could attempt a rebound toward that zone in the coming weeks.
However, that would likely be temporary relief unless major support is reclaimed.
On-Chain Data Warns of an Extended Bearish Phase
CryptoQuant’s latest research also remains risk-off.
Bitcoin is now trading below the realized price of investors holding BTC for 12–18 months. Realized price represents the average cost basis where coins last moved.
Historically, when BTC breaks below this level and stays there, markets often shift from normal corrections into structural bearish regimes.
CryptoQuant noted that realized price is now acting as overhead resistance, meaning rallies may fail as holders sell at breakeven.
The combination of price below realized cost, negative profitability, and slowing growth has aligned with extended bearish phases in past cycles.
Bitcoin is losing key support, technical levels are breaking, and on-chain structure is weakening.

While a short-term bounce toward $84K is possible, the broader trend is still bearish, and analysts are now discussing deeper downside levels even sub-$50K scenarios if history continues to repeat.
Stay cautious. Manage risk.
Not financial advice.

#WhenWillBTCRebound #PreciousMetalsTurbulence #MarketCorrection #CZAMAonBinanceSquare #BitcoinETFWatch