Everyone hurry to participate, the more people, the greater the rewards. Remember to trade as required, and recognize the trading pairs (#0GUSDC ,#0GUSDT , HAEDALUSDC,HAEDALUSDT,LAYERUSDC,LAYERUSDT, USUALUSDC,USUALUSDT)
$BSU has clearly dropped significantly in half an hour before the end, and I don't know if there will be half tomorrow. I will definitely not participate in any contracts in the future.
$BANK Many people in the square are misleading others. The data you present will be taken as truth by others, and since it's already competitive, this makes it even more so!
$BANK The reason for such a big increase yesterday is that many people said they stabilized and brushed first yesterday, not wanting to brush today. However, doing so makes everyone feel that they need to brush more today, which ultimately means that the final reward cannot cover the wear and tear.
$AIO Yesterday 900 million in trading volume, increased by 60,000, ended at 4 PM today, currently only 600 million in trading volume. At most increased by 60,000, estimated final of 400,000, insurance is also 410,000, let's see the results tomorrow.
$AIO This is the most intense one ever. In fact, if you can't make it to the final, you only lose over 30 points. Let's have Doubao predict the final result: Based on the strong correlation between the total trading volume decrease over the past 5 days and the increase in the entry threshold (the number of the last participant), we predict the fifth day's entry result through data fitting:
Rule: For every 10% decrease in total trading volume, the entry threshold increases by about 20,000 to 25,000, and the greater the decline in trading volume, the more stable the increase in the threshold (averaging around 23%).
Prediction Result
The entry threshold on the fifth day is approximately 421,000 (rounded to 420,000). The core logic is:
1. The trading volume drop from the fourth to the fifth day is 37.4%. Based on an average threshold increase of 23%, 337,000 × 1.25 ≈ 421,000;
2. The increase in threshold over the first four days ranges between 20.7% and 26.1%, taking the average value of 23%, 337,000 × 1.23 ≈ 414,000, adjusted to 420,000.
$B2 According to Doubao analysis as follows: Based on 8300 fixed entrants, the transaction data conforms to the normal distribution of large samples. The core premise, combined with the data patterns of the last three days, estimates that the minimum number of entrants for the fourth day will be 30,000 (core range 28,000-32,000).
1. Stability of extreme values in large samples: 8300 people belong to an ultra-large sample, and the minimum value of entrants (tail extreme value) is less affected by short-term fluctuations in total transaction volume and is more reliant on the "entry threshold baseline" (core range of 27,000-43,000 in the first three days), which will not deviate too far from the historical range.
2. Extreme value regression law: The total transaction volume on the third day was 516 million, only 9.6% of the 5.388 billion from the second day, but the minimum value of entrants at 74,000 is 2.1 times the average of the previous two days (35,000), belonging to an "extreme surge" (probability is extremely low under large samples and not sustainable). The fourth day must return to the historical baseline.
3. Matching degree of total transaction volume: The total transaction volume on the fourth day is 370 million, which is in the same "low total volume range" as the third day (516 million) and the first day (228 million). The entry threshold should align with the conventional level of this range (first day 27,000, reasonable range after excluding extreme values on the third day 28,000-33,000), ultimately anchoring at the core value of 30,000.
After Doubao analysis, the final entry result should be 107,000, with an extreme situation of 134,000. Let's see tomorrow how accurate the prediction is.