🪙 Profit-taking has subsided: Bitcoin has cooled — but the bull trend is alive
BTC cannot return to $120K yet, but there is no panic: short-term holders are no longer selling at a profit — the market has entered a phase of balance.
💰 Glassnode: 🟡 STH sales at a profit have dropped to 45% — below the neutral zone 🟡 70% of coins held by STH are still in profit 🟡 The balance between profit-taking and loss is “normal for the mid-bull phase”
🎤 Tom Lee is back in business: $250K for Bitcoin — already in 2025
Stock bull and crypto-optimist Tom Lee doesn’t give up. He still expects $250K for Bitcoin by the end of next year. And in the long run — even a million.
“Bitcoin must settle above $120K by the end of the year. $200K? Maybe. $250K? Why not,” he said on the Coin Stories podcast
🟡 His previous forecast for $250K — from November 2024, deadline — in 12 months
🪙 BlackRock withdrew $292M from IBIT - the largest outflow in 9 weeks
Whales have started to unload: American spot ETFs for Bitcoin are recording their third consecutive day of outflows, despite the price bounce.
🟡 BlackRock has a minus of $292.5M for Monday, the first time since May 🟡 Before this, there was a 37-day inflow streak 🟡 BTC dropped to $112,300 over the weekend, then returned to $115K 🟡 In total, IBIT raised $5.2 billion in July, so for now it's "just noise"
DeFi insurance is finally working: victims of the Arcadia Finance hack have received compensation.
🟡 The hack was in July: $3.5M in stablecoins was withdrawn from Arcadia to Base 🟡 Some users have filed claims for payouts through OpenCover 🟡 Nexus Mutual has already returned $250K 🟡 Funds were deducted from the insurance pool, which still has $100M in active coverage
Trump signed an order on new tariffs — the market collapsed in response.
🟡 BTC broke the three-week channel and dropped to $114,250. 🟡 In one day, 158,000 traders were liquidated for $630M — mainly longs. 🟡 $110B left the market in 12 hours — investors are mass liquidating. 🟡 The nearest support zone is $111K if the pullback continues.
🪙 Rates not lowered: the bullish market may slow down
The Fed kept the key rate unchanged, and the chances of a September cut fell from 63% to 40%.
🟡 Jerome Powell refused to give a clear forecast: 'there are no decisions for September yet' 🟡 Inflation in the US is 2.7% and has been rising for 4 consecutive months 🟡 In the conditions of trade tariffs and stable unemployment, there are fewer arguments for lowering the rate
Glassnode warns: the next BTC movement will be sharp — down by 7% or up to a new peak.
📌 Why is $110K a critical zone?
🟡 Short-term holders bought BTC around $117K–$122K — this is where support is forming 🟡 But in the $115K–$110K zone, there's emptiness: almost no one managed to buy during the pump
🪙 Galaxy dumped $450M in bitcoin — the market didn’t even blink
Yesterday, Galaxy Digital transferred 3,782 BTC ($450M) to exchanges. But the rate went… up. Instead of panic — a bounce to $119K. Investors ignored the risk and closed the gap on CME.
📌 What’s happening?
🟡 Galaxy is helping someone sell BTC again — but the market didn't react like it did with 80K bitcoins last week 🟡 Then there was a drop to $114.5K, now — a calm rise after testing $117K
The market has completed a key phase of exiting the downward channel. 🚀 The resistance range was broken through a raid — liquidity capture followed by correction. The manipulation above the previous high is complete, and the price has begun to work through the area of interest.
Bitcoin approaching $120K: the market is preparing for a storm
Before the end of the week, BTC sharply rebounded from a two-week low, approaching the liquidation zone. Traders are waiting for a breakout at $120K — or a return to $113K. Volatility is increasing, market makers are preparing for sharp movements.
📈 Sunday rebound: bulls are back in the arena
🟡 BTC sharply jumped from $114,500 to $119,000 — all in just a couple of days
🔴TON at the start of a big surge? Head of the Ton Foundation intrigues: "August will be hot". Grayscale, the largest crypto fund in the world ($30+ billion under management), has added TON to its list of assets for potential investment. If they really start to invest — TON could soar to a new level.
👑 Bitcoin is ready to break $136K: "explosive phase" is near!
After an incredible rally to new highs, Bitcoin is now consolidating — but what comes next? Analysts are looking at a bullish flag that could predict a rise of 15% to $136,000. Here's what's happening.
📈 Bitcoin consolidation and what awaits us
🟡 Bitcoin increased by 14% from July 8 to July 25, reaching an all-time high of $123,000.
🔴According to UBS, total global wealth in 2022 amounted to $454 trillion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market capitalization is only ~$2.35 trillion, which is less than 0.5% of the entire picture.
If Bitcoin takes: 🔻1% of global wealth → $228,000 for 1 BTC 🔻2% → $457,000 🔻5% → $1,140,000
Pyramid of money distribution: 🔹 45.8% of wealth belongs to people with a capital > $1 million
🔴Urgent: "Trump on Powell from the Fed: Yesterday I got the impression that Powell may be ready to lower rates".
⚠️We remind you that the rate decision will be made: July 30 (the decision will be announced on July 30–31). If the rate is indeed lowered, it could positively affect the crypto market.
👉Probabilities based on data from the CME FedWatch Tool - so far lean towards an increase:
📍 ≈ 95.7 % probability that the rate will remain in the range of 4.25–4.50 % 📍Only ≈ 4.3 % – probability of a decrease to 4.00–4.25 % 📍Practically 0 % – probability of an increase 📍That is, the market expects almost 96% of holding the rate and minimal chance of a decrease
The crypto community is actively discussing the 'Path to Altseason' model. This theory is based on observations of past market cycles and describes how capital flows into different asset classes as interest in the crypto market grows:
1️⃣ Phase 1: Bitcoin. Approximately: February – May 2025
🪙 Bitcoin continues to absorb liquidity: a big player has bet on $200K
🚀 Where and how is BTC gaining strength?
🟡 Bitcoin cut orders at $115K, causing liquidation of positions worth $130M 🟡 A player with $23.7M is betting on $200K by the end of the year 🟡 Expert forecasts: the correction will end, and bulls will peak again
💰 What is happening?
🟡 CoinGlass data shows that liquidity is recovering again below 🟡 However, analysts are confident: this is not a decline, but a correction before a new surge 🟡 Forecasts for the end of the year — $200K for Bitcoin, traders are betting on a new all-time high
📊 What should you pay attention to?
🟡 Support level $115K — a key point for confidence in the bullish trend 🟡 Daan Crypto Trades forecasts: if $115K does not hold, the next level is $113,500 🟡 The market is set for growth, a correction at low risks — an opportunity to buy $BTC