Nicolas Samui
Créateur de la chaine youtube et de la newsletter "les clefs du marchés" 👉 https://nicolas777.substack.com/
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The Institutional Domino: why the Magnificent 7 might end up stacking Bitcoin!
We may be witnessing the beginning of a silent shift.
Bank of America is leading the way for cryptos.
Vanguard, the temple of financial conservatism, is changing its doctrine and finally listing Bitcoin.
Grayscale predicts a broken cycle and new peaks.
• Bank of America
BoA now allows certain clients to allocate up to 4% of their portfolio to digital assets.
For a bank that spent 10 years repeating that 'Bitcoin has no intrinsic value', this is a total turnaround.
Bank of America is leading the way for cryptos.
Vanguard, the temple of financial conservatism, is changing its doctrine and finally listing Bitcoin.
Grayscale predicts a broken cycle and new peaks.
• Bank of America
BoA now allows certain clients to allocate up to 4% of their portfolio to digital assets.
For a bank that spent 10 years repeating that 'Bitcoin has no intrinsic value', this is a total turnaround.
US TRADE DEFICIT NEARLY DOUBLES TO $56.8 BILLION
The US trade deficit almost doubled month-over-month to $56.8 billion in November, crushing the $44 billion consensus as imports surged 5% while exports fell 3.6%.
The extreme volatility reflects shifting tariff policies creating chaos in trade flows and widening America's economic imbalance.
#USA
The US trade deficit almost doubled month-over-month to $56.8 billion in November, crushing the $44 billion consensus as imports surged 5% while exports fell 3.6%.
The extreme volatility reflects shifting tariff policies creating chaos in trade flows and widening America's economic imbalance.
#USA
GOLD 55% ABOVE 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE
#Gold is trading 55% above its 200-day moving average, an extreme deviation historically followed by violent mean reversion.
A simple return to this key technical level would represent a 55% decline from current prices, raising questions about gold's parabolic rally sustainability.
#Gold is trading 55% above its 200-day moving average, an extreme deviation historically followed by violent mean reversion.
A simple return to this key technical level would represent a 55% decline from current prices, raising questions about gold's parabolic rally sustainability.
#BITCOIN HASHRATE STAGNATES AS MINERS PIVOT TO #AI
Bitcoin Hashrate has flatlined since April 2025 as miners shift capacity to more lucrative AI/HPC operations due to electricity constraints.
However, #Bitcoin mining's unique ability to provide grid stabilization through demand response could make it indispensable for energy infrastructure despite the exodus.
Bitcoin Hashrate has flatlined since April 2025 as miners shift capacity to more lucrative AI/HPC operations due to electricity constraints.
However, #Bitcoin mining's unique ability to provide grid stabilization through demand response could make it indispensable for energy infrastructure despite the exodus.
WHAT IS the Bitcoin/Gold ratio telling us right now, AND WHY should this technical breakdown be sett
I think it's worth analyzing this signal carefully, because we're seeing patterns that historically only appear during major crises.
First, the technical facts are striking.
The logarithmic uptrend line on the BTC/Gold ratio, intact since 2019, just broke down.
This is unusual, especially given the temporal repetition we've observed in previous cycles.
The ratio just dropped below its 200-day moving average (IN RED), something that historically only happened during extreme bear market phases.
Specifically, this occurred during the COVID crash and during the Terra/Luna crisis.
This means we're seeing a breakdown signal that previously only appeared during capitulation events.
But here's what makes this situation abnormal: we haven't experienced any comparable major capitulation event yet.
No exchange collapse, no major protocol failure, no panic selling climax.
The ratio is signaling crisis-level stress without the typical crisis trigger.
The RSI on this ratio sits at 27.71, near the lowest levels since 2015, indicating rare oversold conditions.
If we project forward, a return of the ratio toward 9 would mechanically imply Bitcoin around $47,205.
This would correspond to a zone of marked macro stress and serious risk-off sentiment.
So what does this actually mean for positioning?
Two possible interpretations exist, and they lead to very different outcomes.
- Scenario one: this is a temporary anomaly caused by gold's exceptional rally driven by central bank buying and de-dollarization, while #bitcoin consolidates after its ETF-driven surge.
The ratio reverts, Bitcoin catches up to gold, and we continue the cycle normally.
- Scenario two: this is an early warning signal of a broader macro event coming.
The ratio is front-running a crisis that markets haven't fully priced yet, whether it's a geopolitical shock, a Fed policy mistake, or a liquidity crunch.
The fact that we're seeing crisis-level technical signals without a crisis is what makes this setup so critical to monitor.
Either we're witnessing an unprecedented divergence that will snap back violently, or the ratio is telling us something the headlines haven't caught up to yet.
For traders, this means managing risk carefully.
The ratio is at historically extreme levels that have preceded either massive reversals or continued deterioration into full bear markets.
Watch this signal closely in the coming weeks, because its resolution will likely define the next major move across all risk assets.
First, the technical facts are striking.
The logarithmic uptrend line on the BTC/Gold ratio, intact since 2019, just broke down.
This is unusual, especially given the temporal repetition we've observed in previous cycles.
The ratio just dropped below its 200-day moving average (IN RED), something that historically only happened during extreme bear market phases.
Specifically, this occurred during the COVID crash and during the Terra/Luna crisis.
This means we're seeing a breakdown signal that previously only appeared during capitulation events.
But here's what makes this situation abnormal: we haven't experienced any comparable major capitulation event yet.
No exchange collapse, no major protocol failure, no panic selling climax.
The ratio is signaling crisis-level stress without the typical crisis trigger.
The RSI on this ratio sits at 27.71, near the lowest levels since 2015, indicating rare oversold conditions.
If we project forward, a return of the ratio toward 9 would mechanically imply Bitcoin around $47,205.
This would correspond to a zone of marked macro stress and serious risk-off sentiment.
So what does this actually mean for positioning?
Two possible interpretations exist, and they lead to very different outcomes.
- Scenario one: this is a temporary anomaly caused by gold's exceptional rally driven by central bank buying and de-dollarization, while #bitcoin consolidates after its ETF-driven surge.
The ratio reverts, Bitcoin catches up to gold, and we continue the cycle normally.
- Scenario two: this is an early warning signal of a broader macro event coming.
The ratio is front-running a crisis that markets haven't fully priced yet, whether it's a geopolitical shock, a Fed policy mistake, or a liquidity crunch.
The fact that we're seeing crisis-level technical signals without a crisis is what makes this setup so critical to monitor.
Either we're witnessing an unprecedented divergence that will snap back violently, or the ratio is telling us something the headlines haven't caught up to yet.
For traders, this means managing risk carefully.
The ratio is at historically extreme levels that have preceded either massive reversals or continued deterioration into full bear markets.
Watch this signal closely in the coming weeks, because its resolution will likely define the next major move across all risk assets.
🇺🇸🌪️ WHY IS this week setting up for extreme market volatility, AND WHAT are the key geopolitical triggers traders need to watch?
I think it's worth laying out the pressure points clearly, because multiple systemic risks are converging simultaneously.
Geopolitics and macro are now dominating market narratives.
The heavy de-dollarization trend continues accelerating as BRICS nations dump US Treasuries for gold and alternative reserves.
The US government shutdown risk is back on the table, threatening fiscal stability and market confidence.
Fed independence is under direct threat with Trump's upcoming Chair nomination, creating unprecedented monetary policy uncertainty.
Trump is multiplying aggressive declarations: demands for Greenland control, tariff threats against Canada, and escalating trade war rhetoric.
Meanwhile, the United States is reinforcing its military posture near Iran, raising the specter of Middle East conflict.
This means traders face a perfect storm of interconnected risks.
Any single one of these factors could trigger sharp moves, but together they create a highly unstable environment where headlines can instantly shift sentiment.
For crypto specifically, this volatility cuts both ways.
Short-term, risk-off moves could pressure Bitcoin as it correlates with equity markets and US liquidity conditions.
But longer-term, these exact tensions fuel the narrative for decentralized, non-sovereign assets outside traditional finance.
This week, expect whipsaws across all asset classes.
Bonds, equities, crypto, and commodities will all react violently to any escalation on these fronts.
The smart play isn't predicting direction, it's managing exposure and staying nimble as these geopolitical pressures play out in real time.
I think it's worth laying out the pressure points clearly, because multiple systemic risks are converging simultaneously.
Geopolitics and macro are now dominating market narratives.
The heavy de-dollarization trend continues accelerating as BRICS nations dump US Treasuries for gold and alternative reserves.
The US government shutdown risk is back on the table, threatening fiscal stability and market confidence.
Fed independence is under direct threat with Trump's upcoming Chair nomination, creating unprecedented monetary policy uncertainty.
Trump is multiplying aggressive declarations: demands for Greenland control, tariff threats against Canada, and escalating trade war rhetoric.
Meanwhile, the United States is reinforcing its military posture near Iran, raising the specter of Middle East conflict.
This means traders face a perfect storm of interconnected risks.
Any single one of these factors could trigger sharp moves, but together they create a highly unstable environment where headlines can instantly shift sentiment.
For crypto specifically, this volatility cuts both ways.
Short-term, risk-off moves could pressure Bitcoin as it correlates with equity markets and US liquidity conditions.
But longer-term, these exact tensions fuel the narrative for decentralized, non-sovereign assets outside traditional finance.
This week, expect whipsaws across all asset classes.
Bonds, equities, crypto, and commodities will all react violently to any escalation on these fronts.
The smart play isn't predicting direction, it's managing exposure and staying nimble as these geopolitical pressures play out in real time.
Here is a summary of the World Economic Forum.
#WEF2026 #trump
#WEF2026 #trump
TRUMP ARRIVES IN DAVOS FOR WEF SPEECH TODAY
President Trump has landed in Zurich and will address the World Economic Forum in Davos this afternoon.
Markets watching closely for comments on tariffs, monetary policy, and global trade as volatility remains elevated across assets including crypto.
#TRUMP
President Trump has landed in Zurich and will address the World Economic Forum in Davos this afternoon.
Markets watching closely for comments on tariffs, monetary policy, and global trade as volatility remains elevated across assets including crypto.
#TRUMP
WHY ARE central banks dumping US debt for gold instead of Bitcoin?!
WHY ARE central banks dumping US debt for gold instead of Bitcoin, AND WHAT does this reveal about BTC's true geopolitical position?
I think it's worth exploring this dynamic, because it challenges the common "Bitcoin vs Gold" narrative.
First, the facts are clear.
Central banks worldwide, especially China, Russia, and emerging markets, are actively reducing their Treasury holdings and massively accumulating gold.
Gold is politically neutral, non-seizable, and accepted by all geopolitical blocs.
This means gold serves as the perfect hedge against the dollar system without pledging allegiance to any power.
Now here's where Bitcoin's position gets interesting.
Despite being theoretically decentralized, BTC is deeply embedded in the US financial ecosystem.
The narrative is Western, regulation is US-dominated, custody solutions are run by BlackRock and Fidelity, and much of the infrastructure is American-controlled.
For a central bank trying to escape dollar hegemony, buying Bitcoin means strengthening an asset controlled by their geopolitical adversary.
This explains why they choose gold over BTC, even though Bitcoin offers superior monetary properties.
But here's the nuance most people miss.
Bitcoin operates on two competing narratives simultaneously.
Short-term, it acts as a risk asset tied to US liquidity and Fed policy.
When American financial power rises, BTC benefits from capital flows and institutional adoption.
Long-term, it represents an escape from the entire fiat system. If the dollar-based order collapses, Bitcoin's non-sovereign nature becomes its ultimate strength.
So what does US geopolitical expansion mean for Bitcoin?
Moves like potential Greenland control signal American strategic dominance, which supports BTC through increased liquidity and market confidence.
But if Europe pivots toward China and away from the US bloc, weakening American influence could hurt Bitcoin in the short term while potentially strengthening its long-term anti-fiat narrative.
It's not as simple as "US power up = BTC up."
Bitcoin exists in a paradox where it benefits from American financial strength today while promising freedom from that very system tomorrow.
#GOLD #BTC #USA
I think it's worth exploring this dynamic, because it challenges the common "Bitcoin vs Gold" narrative.
First, the facts are clear.
Central banks worldwide, especially China, Russia, and emerging markets, are actively reducing their Treasury holdings and massively accumulating gold.
Gold is politically neutral, non-seizable, and accepted by all geopolitical blocs.
This means gold serves as the perfect hedge against the dollar system without pledging allegiance to any power.
Now here's where Bitcoin's position gets interesting.
Despite being theoretically decentralized, BTC is deeply embedded in the US financial ecosystem.
The narrative is Western, regulation is US-dominated, custody solutions are run by BlackRock and Fidelity, and much of the infrastructure is American-controlled.
For a central bank trying to escape dollar hegemony, buying Bitcoin means strengthening an asset controlled by their geopolitical adversary.
This explains why they choose gold over BTC, even though Bitcoin offers superior monetary properties.
But here's the nuance most people miss.
Bitcoin operates on two competing narratives simultaneously.
Short-term, it acts as a risk asset tied to US liquidity and Fed policy.
When American financial power rises, BTC benefits from capital flows and institutional adoption.
Long-term, it represents an escape from the entire fiat system. If the dollar-based order collapses, Bitcoin's non-sovereign nature becomes its ultimate strength.
So what does US geopolitical expansion mean for Bitcoin?
Moves like potential Greenland control signal American strategic dominance, which supports BTC through increased liquidity and market confidence.
But if Europe pivots toward China and away from the US bloc, weakening American influence could hurt Bitcoin in the short term while potentially strengthening its long-term anti-fiat narrative.
It's not as simple as "US power up = BTC up."
Bitcoin exists in a paradox where it benefits from American financial strength today while promising freedom from that very system tomorrow.
#GOLD #BTC #USA
DANISH PENSION FUND DUMPS ALL US TREASURIES
Akademiker Pension will sell all US Treasuries by month-end, citing "rising credit risk" under President Trump.
The fund's CIO calls US finances "unsustainable" due to weak fiscal discipline, dollar weakness, and geopolitical tensions over Greenland.
#BTC
Akademiker Pension will sell all US Treasuries by month-end, citing "rising credit risk" under President Trump.
The fund's CIO calls US finances "unsustainable" due to weak fiscal discipline, dollar weakness, and geopolitical tensions over Greenland.
#BTC
Kevin Warsh IS LEADING THE RACE for #Fed Chair according to the latest Polymarket data.
This means the market believes Trump will prioritize credibility over ideology.
Warsh's experience as a Fed Governor during 2008 and his market-oriented approach give him the trust that investors want.
His predictable, hawkish policies mean less market panic and clearer signals for rate decisions.
For crypto, this is mixed news.
Warsh won't be as accommodative as Hassett, meaning less liquidity for risk assets.
But his predictability could reduce volatility and bring institutional confidence to digital assets.
Over $31 million traded across all candidates shows real conviction, not just speculation.
The smart money is consolidating around stability over stimulus.
It's probably not locked in yet, but 62% with this volume is a strong signal.
This means the market believes Trump will prioritize credibility over ideology.
Warsh's experience as a Fed Governor during 2008 and his market-oriented approach give him the trust that investors want.
His predictable, hawkish policies mean less market panic and clearer signals for rate decisions.
For crypto, this is mixed news.
Warsh won't be as accommodative as Hassett, meaning less liquidity for risk assets.
But his predictability could reduce volatility and bring institutional confidence to digital assets.
Over $31 million traded across all candidates shows real conviction, not just speculation.
The smart money is consolidating around stability over stimulus.
It's probably not locked in yet, but 62% with this volume is a strong signal.
SHILLER PE RATIO SURPASSES 40, NEARS DOT-COM PEAK
The Shiller PE ratio has exceeded 40, the second-highest level in history, now approaching its all-time record of 44.2 set in December 1999.
Stock valuations reaching levels last seen before the dot-com crash raise concerns about potential market correction.
#SP500
The Shiller PE ratio has exceeded 40, the second-highest level in history, now approaching its all-time record of 44.2 set in December 1999.
Stock valuations reaching levels last seen before the dot-com crash raise concerns about potential market correction.
#SP500
🚨 Coinbase cannot support the crypto market structure proposal in its current form after reviewing it.
This is the kind of signal you should not ignore if you want to understand this cycle.
Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, rejected the crypto market structure bill after reviewing it, revealing strong tensions between native crypto platforms and U.S. regulators.
The real conflict is a power struggle between crypto platforms and traditional banks over control of financial infrastructure.
Stablecoin deposits are at the heart of the issue, as crypto firms generate revenue from on-chain dollars, directly challenging the traditional banking model.
U.S. banks are defending a historical privilege based on deposit structures that do not require interest payments, and they are aggressively lobbying to preserve it.
The same resistance applies to tokenized assets, where established players seek to slow down or block new fee models that threaten existing intermediaries.
This is why this bill is actually bullish for Bitcoin and bearish for altcoins.
#Bitcoin remains on its long-term bullish trajectory, driven by institutional adoption and its role as a neutral monetary asset, largely independent of regulatory complexity.
The political calendar makes significant progress unlikely, increasing the chances that the bill will be delayed or stripped of substance rather than truly resolved.
Regulatory paralysis strengthens Bitcoin's simplicity and legitimacy, while the #altcoins remain structurally sidelined throughout this cycle.
This is the kind of signal you should not ignore if you want to understand this cycle.
Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, rejected the crypto market structure bill after reviewing it, revealing strong tensions between native crypto platforms and U.S. regulators.
The real conflict is a power struggle between crypto platforms and traditional banks over control of financial infrastructure.
Stablecoin deposits are at the heart of the issue, as crypto firms generate revenue from on-chain dollars, directly challenging the traditional banking model.
U.S. banks are defending a historical privilege based on deposit structures that do not require interest payments, and they are aggressively lobbying to preserve it.
The same resistance applies to tokenized assets, where established players seek to slow down or block new fee models that threaten existing intermediaries.
This is why this bill is actually bullish for Bitcoin and bearish for altcoins.
#Bitcoin remains on its long-term bullish trajectory, driven by institutional adoption and its role as a neutral monetary asset, largely independent of regulatory complexity.
The political calendar makes significant progress unlikely, increasing the chances that the bill will be delayed or stripped of substance rather than truly resolved.
Regulatory paralysis strengthens Bitcoin's simplicity and legitimacy, while the #altcoins remain structurally sidelined throughout this cycle.
Here is a simple summary of the bipartisan U.S. crypto bill:
What is gained (very positive):
- You have a clear right to use your own wallet (hardware or software) → self-custody protected by law
- You can make direct person-to-person (P2P) transactions without going through a platform
- Wallet creators (Ledger, MetaMask, etc.) will not be considered banks or financial intermediaries
- DeFi protocols and their developers are protected → they will not be regulated like Coinbase or a traditional bank
What is lost (negative for some):
- No more automatic passive returns on stablecoins you keep in your personal wallet
What stays the same:
- Exchanges and custodial platforms must continue to perform KYC + strict anti-money laundering measures
Bonus staking:
- Platforms will be able to offer staking for their clients, but with strict rules (your crypto must remain separate from the platform's assets)
Likelihood of passage? 60–70% chance in early 2026
#CLARITYAct
What is gained (very positive):
- You have a clear right to use your own wallet (hardware or software) → self-custody protected by law
- You can make direct person-to-person (P2P) transactions without going through a platform
- Wallet creators (Ledger, MetaMask, etc.) will not be considered banks or financial intermediaries
- DeFi protocols and their developers are protected → they will not be regulated like Coinbase or a traditional bank
What is lost (negative for some):
- No more automatic passive returns on stablecoins you keep in your personal wallet
What stays the same:
- Exchanges and custodial platforms must continue to perform KYC + strict anti-money laundering measures
Bonus staking:
- Platforms will be able to offer staking for their clients, but with strict rules (your crypto must remain separate from the platform's assets)
Likelihood of passage? 60–70% chance in early 2026
#CLARITYAct
🔥 A massive cluster of stacked short positions awaits us at 108K!
According to Coinglass, these shorts are at risk of a violent squeeze right now.
Bitcoin has chosen the north... and it will be nearly impossible to stop it.
$BTC
According to Coinglass, these shorts are at risk of a violent squeeze right now.
Bitcoin has chosen the north... and it will be nearly impossible to stop it.
$BTC
The inflation target of #Fed to 2% could evolve over time, but no decision is imminent:
The official target of the Federal Reserve remains fixed at 2% as of January 10, 2026, unchanged since its formalization in 2012.
Scott Bessent confirmed in December 2025 his openness to a future review, contingent upon inflation being sustainably stabilized around 2%.
The proposed options include an inflation range, such as 1.5–2.5% or 1–3%, as opposed to the single-point target that has been in place for over 13 years.
#Bessent explicitly excludes any changes as long as inflation remains above target, to avoid an adjustment perceived as inflationary.
Since January 1, 2026, no new or advanced formal statements have been reported by Bloomberg, Reuters, or CNBC.
Core inflation is estimated at around 2.3% at the beginning of January 2026, compared to a peak above 4% observed in 2023.
The speech on January 8, 2026, emphasized faster rate cuts in 2026, presented as the key lever to support growth.
Market attention is now focused on the rate cut schedule and the appointment of the next Fed chair, expected early 2026.
The inflation target remains unchanged, and the debate remains conditional and without immediate impact on monetary policy.
The official target of the Federal Reserve remains fixed at 2% as of January 10, 2026, unchanged since its formalization in 2012.
Scott Bessent confirmed in December 2025 his openness to a future review, contingent upon inflation being sustainably stabilized around 2%.
The proposed options include an inflation range, such as 1.5–2.5% or 1–3%, as opposed to the single-point target that has been in place for over 13 years.
#Bessent explicitly excludes any changes as long as inflation remains above target, to avoid an adjustment perceived as inflationary.
Since January 1, 2026, no new or advanced formal statements have been reported by Bloomberg, Reuters, or CNBC.
Core inflation is estimated at around 2.3% at the beginning of January 2026, compared to a peak above 4% observed in 2023.
The speech on January 8, 2026, emphasized faster rate cuts in 2026, presented as the key lever to support growth.
Market attention is now focused on the rate cut schedule and the appointment of the next Fed chair, expected early 2026.
The inflation target remains unchanged, and the debate remains conditional and without immediate impact on monetary policy.
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