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Trump agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, but the condition is to open the Strait of Hormuz.
He did not mention whether the conditions for opening the strait are free, and there is only about 1 hour left until Trump's final ultimatum.
He did not mention whether the conditions for opening the strait are free, and there is only about 1 hour left until Trump's final ultimatum.
Trump agreed to suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, but the condition is to open the Strait of Hormuz.
He did not mention whether the conditions for opening the strait are free, and there is only about 1 hour left until Trump's final ultimatum.
He did not mention whether the conditions for opening the strait are free, and there is only about 1 hour left until Trump's final ultimatum.
Trump is unlikely to TACO in the short term
┈➤ Aerial Refueling Aircraft Stealth
A KC-46A refueling aircraft took off from Israel and went stealth.
The aircraft, with the tail number 18-46054, took off about 4 and a half hours ago.
About an hour ago, FlightRadar24 marked it as LIVE, but it has now changed to Play, likely because the refueling aircraft turned off its signal and entered stealth mode. (The likelihood of an aircraft accident or a return is extremely low)
Thus, the outside world cannot know the exact location of the fighter jets being refueled by this aircraft.
┈➤ Pizza Index Rises
At the same time, the Pentagon's pizza index has risen to 61.
The U.S. Department of Defense may be busy with military strategic deployments.
┈➤ Speculating Trump's Bottom Line
About an hour ago, Trump threatened Iran, saying: "Civilization as we know it will cease to exist."
This statement seems more like a response to Iran, which has previously stated something similar to "we must erase Israel from the map."
Although there are controversies over the translation of this statement, the conflict between Iran and Israel is undeniable. Iran is actively developing nuclear weapons, which poses a certain threat to Israel, the Middle East, and even the world.
Therefore, Trump's bottom line should be to demand that Iran surrender its enriched uranium and abandon its nuclear weapons. Following that, the focus would be on the Strait of Hormuz and the current theocratic regime in Tehran.
┈➤ Aerial Refueling Aircraft Stealth
A KC-46A refueling aircraft took off from Israel and went stealth.
The aircraft, with the tail number 18-46054, took off about 4 and a half hours ago.
About an hour ago, FlightRadar24 marked it as LIVE, but it has now changed to Play, likely because the refueling aircraft turned off its signal and entered stealth mode. (The likelihood of an aircraft accident or a return is extremely low)
Thus, the outside world cannot know the exact location of the fighter jets being refueled by this aircraft.
┈➤ Pizza Index Rises
At the same time, the Pentagon's pizza index has risen to 61.
The U.S. Department of Defense may be busy with military strategic deployments.
┈➤ Speculating Trump's Bottom Line
About an hour ago, Trump threatened Iran, saying: "Civilization as we know it will cease to exist."
This statement seems more like a response to Iran, which has previously stated something similar to "we must erase Israel from the map."
Although there are controversies over the translation of this statement, the conflict between Iran and Israel is undeniable. Iran is actively developing nuclear weapons, which poses a certain threat to Israel, the Middle East, and even the world.
Therefore, Trump's bottom line should be to demand that Iran surrender its enriched uranium and abandon its nuclear weapons. Following that, the focus would be on the Strait of Hormuz and the current theocratic regime in Tehran.
TVBee
·
--
The sound of cannons remains
3 Boeing KC-46A aircraft from the United States took off from Tel Aviv, Israel.
FlightRadar24 detected that the 3 KC-46A took off at approximately 4 PM, 11 PM on April 6, and 1:30 AM on April 7, flying for 6 to 8 hours before returning.
The KC-46A is the latest generation of refueling aircraft in the United States, allowing fighter jets to be refueled in the air, enabling them to complete refueling without landing.
Additionally, FlightRadar24 detected 3 KC-46A at U.S. and Japanese air force bases, with 2 of them having flight records.
Theoretically, U.S. technology can completely block signals from being monitored; the lack of blocking may be intended to serve a deterrent purpose, especially since the KC-46A in the U.S. and Japan is likely engaged in exercises.
On the other hand, the Pentagon's pizza index within the United States is around 57 to 59.
3 Boeing KC-46A aircraft from the United States took off from Tel Aviv, Israel.
FlightRadar24 detected that the 3 KC-46A took off at approximately 4 PM, 11 PM on April 6, and 1:30 AM on April 7, flying for 6 to 8 hours before returning.
The KC-46A is the latest generation of refueling aircraft in the United States, allowing fighter jets to be refueled in the air, enabling them to complete refueling without landing.
Additionally, FlightRadar24 detected 3 KC-46A at U.S. and Japanese air force bases, with 2 of them having flight records.
Theoretically, U.S. technology can completely block signals from being monitored; the lack of blocking may be intended to serve a deterrent purpose, especially since the KC-46A in the U.S. and Japan is likely engaged in exercises.
On the other hand, the Pentagon's pizza index within the United States is around 57 to 59.
The sound of cannons remains
3 Boeing KC-46A aircraft from the United States took off from Tel Aviv, Israel.
FlightRadar24 detected that the 3 KC-46A took off at approximately 4 PM, 11 PM on April 6, and 1:30 AM on April 7, flying for 6 to 8 hours before returning.
The KC-46A is the latest generation of refueling aircraft in the United States, allowing fighter jets to be refueled in the air, enabling them to complete refueling without landing.
Additionally, FlightRadar24 detected 3 KC-46A at U.S. and Japanese air force bases, with 2 of them having flight records.
Theoretically, U.S. technology can completely block signals from being monitored; the lack of blocking may be intended to serve a deterrent purpose, especially since the KC-46A in the U.S. and Japan is likely engaged in exercises.
On the other hand, the Pentagon's pizza index within the United States is around 57 to 59.
3 Boeing KC-46A aircraft from the United States took off from Tel Aviv, Israel.
FlightRadar24 detected that the 3 KC-46A took off at approximately 4 PM, 11 PM on April 6, and 1:30 AM on April 7, flying for 6 to 8 hours before returning.
The KC-46A is the latest generation of refueling aircraft in the United States, allowing fighter jets to be refueled in the air, enabling them to complete refueling without landing.
Additionally, FlightRadar24 detected 3 KC-46A at U.S. and Japanese air force bases, with 2 of them having flight records.
Theoretically, U.S. technology can completely block signals from being monitored; the lack of blocking may be intended to serve a deterrent purpose, especially since the KC-46A in the U.S. and Japan is likely engaged in exercises.
On the other hand, the Pentagon's pizza index within the United States is around 57 to 59.
TVBee
·
--
Don't celebrate too early. The so-called 45-day ceasefire agreement does not rule out the possibility of "talking while fighting", and we cannot confirm a reversal for now.
Don't forget, today is Monday, and the US stock market is opening.
First, from a news perspective.
The 45-day ceasefire agreement reported today, according to AI, comes from the media Axios.
Axios's original text states, "According to four informed sources from the United States, Israel, and regional insiders".
There has been no announcement from the official media or personnel of the two countries.
Some Middle Eastern media have also released related news, stating that Pakistan has taken the lead in formulating this temporary ceasefire agreement.
On the other hand, from the performance of US stock futures and BTC, the 45-day ceasefire agreement is likely to exist.
But the problem is that the two countries have not officially stated anything for now, which means both sides may not have enough sincerity. They may negotiate, but the possibility of talking while fighting cannot be ruled out.
Real warfare is different from a trade war. On one hand, during a trade war, both sides frequently raise tariffs, and tax authorities do not know which tax rate to manage. Therefore, a pause is necessary. However, the US-Iran conflict does not have this necessity. On the other hand, pausing the increase of tariffs is not something that can be done secretly. However, the so-called ceasefire agreement may allow both sides to negotiate while secretly fighting.
Second, from the perspective of US actions.
The Pentagon Pizza Index remains low, around 54-56.
Additionally, there have been no reports of US combat aircraft being withdrawn.
Third, from the perspective of external reactions.
WTI crude oil prices peaked at 105 this morning, dropped to 100, and are now back around 102, with no obvious downward trend. Crude oil futures prices at 112 are far above spot prices.
The world's most powerful flight tracking website, flightradar24, shows that there are currently no civil flights over Iran, and even over Turkey and Iran, completely devoid of any civil aviation. The war signals over Iran have not yet been lifted.
Polymarket predicts that the ceasefire time increased in the afternoon but dropped again in the evening. Current predictive data indicates that the probability of a ceasefire before May is less than 50%.
From both sides' official attitudes and market reactions, it seems likely that both sides may negotiate while fighting, and the possibility of the US deploying smoke screens and delaying tactics cannot be ruled out.
The smoke screen confuses the Iranian military,
The delaying tactic may be aimed at the US stock market, as the US stock market opens on Monday.
Don't forget, today is Monday, and the US stock market is opening.
First, from a news perspective.
The 45-day ceasefire agreement reported today, according to AI, comes from the media Axios.
Axios's original text states, "According to four informed sources from the United States, Israel, and regional insiders".
There has been no announcement from the official media or personnel of the two countries.
Some Middle Eastern media have also released related news, stating that Pakistan has taken the lead in formulating this temporary ceasefire agreement.
On the other hand, from the performance of US stock futures and BTC, the 45-day ceasefire agreement is likely to exist.
But the problem is that the two countries have not officially stated anything for now, which means both sides may not have enough sincerity. They may negotiate, but the possibility of talking while fighting cannot be ruled out.
Real warfare is different from a trade war. On one hand, during a trade war, both sides frequently raise tariffs, and tax authorities do not know which tax rate to manage. Therefore, a pause is necessary. However, the US-Iran conflict does not have this necessity. On the other hand, pausing the increase of tariffs is not something that can be done secretly. However, the so-called ceasefire agreement may allow both sides to negotiate while secretly fighting.
Second, from the perspective of US actions.
The Pentagon Pizza Index remains low, around 54-56.
Additionally, there have been no reports of US combat aircraft being withdrawn.
Third, from the perspective of external reactions.
WTI crude oil prices peaked at 105 this morning, dropped to 100, and are now back around 102, with no obvious downward trend. Crude oil futures prices at 112 are far above spot prices.
The world's most powerful flight tracking website, flightradar24, shows that there are currently no civil flights over Iran, and even over Turkey and Iran, completely devoid of any civil aviation. The war signals over Iran have not yet been lifted.
Polymarket predicts that the ceasefire time increased in the afternoon but dropped again in the evening. Current predictive data indicates that the probability of a ceasefire before May is less than 50%.
From both sides' official attitudes and market reactions, it seems likely that both sides may negotiate while fighting, and the possibility of the US deploying smoke screens and delaying tactics cannot be ruled out.
The smoke screen confuses the Iranian military,
The delaying tactic may be aimed at the US stock market, as the US stock market opens on Monday.
Don't celebrate too early. The so-called 45-day ceasefire agreement does not rule out the possibility of "talking while fighting", and we cannot confirm a reversal for now.
Don't forget, today is Monday, and the US stock market is opening.
First, from a news perspective.
The 45-day ceasefire agreement reported today, according to AI, comes from the media Axios.
Axios's original text states, "According to four informed sources from the United States, Israel, and regional insiders".
There has been no announcement from the official media or personnel of the two countries.
Some Middle Eastern media have also released related news, stating that Pakistan has taken the lead in formulating this temporary ceasefire agreement.
On the other hand, from the performance of US stock futures and BTC, the 45-day ceasefire agreement is likely to exist.
But the problem is that the two countries have not officially stated anything for now, which means both sides may not have enough sincerity. They may negotiate, but the possibility of talking while fighting cannot be ruled out.
Real warfare is different from a trade war. On one hand, during a trade war, both sides frequently raise tariffs, and tax authorities do not know which tax rate to manage. Therefore, a pause is necessary. However, the US-Iran conflict does not have this necessity. On the other hand, pausing the increase of tariffs is not something that can be done secretly. However, the so-called ceasefire agreement may allow both sides to negotiate while secretly fighting.
Second, from the perspective of US actions.
The Pentagon Pizza Index remains low, around 54-56.
Additionally, there have been no reports of US combat aircraft being withdrawn.
Third, from the perspective of external reactions.
WTI crude oil prices peaked at 105 this morning, dropped to 100, and are now back around 102, with no obvious downward trend. Crude oil futures prices at 112 are far above spot prices.
The world's most powerful flight tracking website, flightradar24, shows that there are currently no civil flights over Iran, and even over Turkey and Iran, completely devoid of any civil aviation. The war signals over Iran have not yet been lifted.
Polymarket predicts that the ceasefire time increased in the afternoon but dropped again in the evening. Current predictive data indicates that the probability of a ceasefire before May is less than 50%.
From both sides' official attitudes and market reactions, it seems likely that both sides may negotiate while fighting, and the possibility of the US deploying smoke screens and delaying tactics cannot be ruled out.
The smoke screen confuses the Iranian military,
The delaying tactic may be aimed at the US stock market, as the US stock market opens on Monday.
Don't forget, today is Monday, and the US stock market is opening.
First, from a news perspective.
The 45-day ceasefire agreement reported today, according to AI, comes from the media Axios.
Axios's original text states, "According to four informed sources from the United States, Israel, and regional insiders".
There has been no announcement from the official media or personnel of the two countries.
Some Middle Eastern media have also released related news, stating that Pakistan has taken the lead in formulating this temporary ceasefire agreement.
On the other hand, from the performance of US stock futures and BTC, the 45-day ceasefire agreement is likely to exist.
But the problem is that the two countries have not officially stated anything for now, which means both sides may not have enough sincerity. They may negotiate, but the possibility of talking while fighting cannot be ruled out.
Real warfare is different from a trade war. On one hand, during a trade war, both sides frequently raise tariffs, and tax authorities do not know which tax rate to manage. Therefore, a pause is necessary. However, the US-Iran conflict does not have this necessity. On the other hand, pausing the increase of tariffs is not something that can be done secretly. However, the so-called ceasefire agreement may allow both sides to negotiate while secretly fighting.
Second, from the perspective of US actions.
The Pentagon Pizza Index remains low, around 54-56.
Additionally, there have been no reports of US combat aircraft being withdrawn.
Third, from the perspective of external reactions.
WTI crude oil prices peaked at 105 this morning, dropped to 100, and are now back around 102, with no obvious downward trend. Crude oil futures prices at 112 are far above spot prices.
The world's most powerful flight tracking website, flightradar24, shows that there are currently no civil flights over Iran, and even over Turkey and Iran, completely devoid of any civil aviation. The war signals over Iran have not yet been lifted.
Polymarket predicts that the ceasefire time increased in the afternoon but dropped again in the evening. Current predictive data indicates that the probability of a ceasefire before May is less than 50%.
From both sides' official attitudes and market reactions, it seems likely that both sides may negotiate while fighting, and the possibility of the US deploying smoke screens and delaying tactics cannot be ruled out.
The smoke screen confuses the Iranian military,
The delaying tactic may be aimed at the US stock market, as the US stock market opens on Monday.
Why hasn't Trump TACO yet? The oil prices in the U.S. are not as bad as they seem.
On the surface, an oil price of 112 is close to a historical high. (blue line)
However, when you divide the oil price by the total disposable income in the U.S. (red line), you'll find that the oil price relative to income is still in a historically low range.
This is why Trump hasn't TACO yet; the U.S. should still be able to hold on for a few more days.
On the surface, an oil price of 112 is close to a historical high. (blue line)
However, when you divide the oil price by the total disposable income in the U.S. (red line), you'll find that the oil price relative to income is still in a historically low range.
This is why Trump hasn't TACO yet; the U.S. should still be able to hold on for a few more days.
TVBee
·
--
Is Trump going to take action?
First, according to Old Bai's tweet, a suspected insider big shot has just placed a huge bet ($800,000) on Polymarket that the United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran.
Second, this year, Trump often likes to stir things up on Saturdays, likely to avoid affecting the US stock market. On April 3rd, Good Friday, the US stock market is closed. So from Friday to Sunday, there are a total of 3 days, which is relatively suitable for action.
Third, the Pizza Index surged at 9 PM on Thursday (9 AM Beijing time on Friday).
It is uncertain whether Trump will take action within 72 hours before his ultimatum.
Previously, Trump issued an ultimatum with a deadline of 8:00 PM Eastern Time on April 6th, demanding Iran to: fully and unconditionally open the Strait of Hormuz, withdraw all mines, stop charging for passage; sign a ceasefire agreement and accept the 15 demands put forward by the US, including stopping the nuclear program and handing over enriched uranium; stop attacks on American businesses.
Trump threatened the other party that if no agreement is reached by the deadline, he would take "power-cut actions," bombing large power plants and grid hubs within Iran, completely destroying Khark Island, which is crucial for Iran's oil exports, and targeting desalination plants and refineries.
It is speculated that even without a ground invasion over these 3 days, it is unlikely to be calm.
First, according to Old Bai's tweet, a suspected insider big shot has just placed a huge bet ($800,000) on Polymarket that the United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran.
Second, this year, Trump often likes to stir things up on Saturdays, likely to avoid affecting the US stock market. On April 3rd, Good Friday, the US stock market is closed. So from Friday to Sunday, there are a total of 3 days, which is relatively suitable for action.
Third, the Pizza Index surged at 9 PM on Thursday (9 AM Beijing time on Friday).
It is uncertain whether Trump will take action within 72 hours before his ultimatum.
Previously, Trump issued an ultimatum with a deadline of 8:00 PM Eastern Time on April 6th, demanding Iran to: fully and unconditionally open the Strait of Hormuz, withdraw all mines, stop charging for passage; sign a ceasefire agreement and accept the 15 demands put forward by the US, including stopping the nuclear program and handing over enriched uranium; stop attacks on American businesses.
Trump threatened the other party that if no agreement is reached by the deadline, he would take "power-cut actions," bombing large power plants and grid hubs within Iran, completely destroying Khark Island, which is crucial for Iran's oil exports, and targeting desalination plants and refineries.
It is speculated that even without a ground invasion over these 3 days, it is unlikely to be calm.
With the advent of the AI era for all, the competition for wallets has evolved from end users to developer tools.
The integrable cross-chain infrastructure each has its own characteristics:
◆Bulla: Supports 6 EVM ecosystem chains, with a core focus on the Morph ecosystem.
◆0X: Supports 15 EVM ecosystem chains, its uniqueness lies in using an active market-making strategy to provide liquidity, which can be disadvantageous for traders. 0X has gained developer stickiness through its API system.
◆COW Swap: Supports cross-chain transactions for a total of 10 EVM chains, including the EVM-compatible chain Avalanche, which is not based on Ethereum. Its features include matching transactions through an optimal auction price method and MEV protection capabilities, making it suitable for large transactions.
◆ZUNO: Supports a total of 11 chains, including non-EVM chains like Bitcoin, Solana, SUI, and TON, as well as the EVM-compatible chain Avalanche that is not based on Ethereum. Its ecological core is the ZetaChain, built on Cosmos but compatible with EVM. It serves as a major infrastructure for cross-ecosystem non-EVM chains.
◆DeBridge: Supports 31 chains, including non-EVM chain Solana and EVM-compatible chains TRON, Avalanche, Flow, Hyperliquid, Sei, Injective, and new public chains like Story, monad, MegaETH, etc.
DeBridge is known for its cross-chain speed and smooth experience, taking on the responsibility for breadth and speed.
The integrable cross-chain infrastructure each has its own characteristics:
◆Bulla: Supports 6 EVM ecosystem chains, with a core focus on the Morph ecosystem.
◆0X: Supports 15 EVM ecosystem chains, its uniqueness lies in using an active market-making strategy to provide liquidity, which can be disadvantageous for traders. 0X has gained developer stickiness through its API system.
◆COW Swap: Supports cross-chain transactions for a total of 10 EVM chains, including the EVM-compatible chain Avalanche, which is not based on Ethereum. Its features include matching transactions through an optimal auction price method and MEV protection capabilities, making it suitable for large transactions.
◆ZUNO: Supports a total of 11 chains, including non-EVM chains like Bitcoin, Solana, SUI, and TON, as well as the EVM-compatible chain Avalanche that is not based on Ethereum. Its ecological core is the ZetaChain, built on Cosmos but compatible with EVM. It serves as a major infrastructure for cross-ecosystem non-EVM chains.
◆DeBridge: Supports 31 chains, including non-EVM chain Solana and EVM-compatible chains TRON, Avalanche, Flow, Hyperliquid, Sei, Injective, and new public chains like Story, monad, MegaETH, etc.
DeBridge is known for its cross-chain speed and smooth experience, taking on the responsibility for breadth and speed.
Is Trump going to take action?
First, according to Old Bai's tweet, a suspected insider big shot has just placed a huge bet ($800,000) on Polymarket that the United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran.
Second, this year, Trump often likes to stir things up on Saturdays, likely to avoid affecting the US stock market. On April 3rd, Good Friday, the US stock market is closed. So from Friday to Sunday, there are a total of 3 days, which is relatively suitable for action.
Third, the Pizza Index surged at 9 PM on Thursday (9 AM Beijing time on Friday).
It is uncertain whether Trump will take action within 72 hours before his ultimatum.
Previously, Trump issued an ultimatum with a deadline of 8:00 PM Eastern Time on April 6th, demanding Iran to: fully and unconditionally open the Strait of Hormuz, withdraw all mines, stop charging for passage; sign a ceasefire agreement and accept the 15 demands put forward by the US, including stopping the nuclear program and handing over enriched uranium; stop attacks on American businesses.
Trump threatened the other party that if no agreement is reached by the deadline, he would take "power-cut actions," bombing large power plants and grid hubs within Iran, completely destroying Khark Island, which is crucial for Iran's oil exports, and targeting desalination plants and refineries.
It is speculated that even without a ground invasion over these 3 days, it is unlikely to be calm.
First, according to Old Bai's tweet, a suspected insider big shot has just placed a huge bet ($800,000) on Polymarket that the United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran.
Second, this year, Trump often likes to stir things up on Saturdays, likely to avoid affecting the US stock market. On April 3rd, Good Friday, the US stock market is closed. So from Friday to Sunday, there are a total of 3 days, which is relatively suitable for action.
Third, the Pizza Index surged at 9 PM on Thursday (9 AM Beijing time on Friday).
It is uncertain whether Trump will take action within 72 hours before his ultimatum.
Previously, Trump issued an ultimatum with a deadline of 8:00 PM Eastern Time on April 6th, demanding Iran to: fully and unconditionally open the Strait of Hormuz, withdraw all mines, stop charging for passage; sign a ceasefire agreement and accept the 15 demands put forward by the US, including stopping the nuclear program and handing over enriched uranium; stop attacks on American businesses.
Trump threatened the other party that if no agreement is reached by the deadline, he would take "power-cut actions," bombing large power plants and grid hubs within Iran, completely destroying Khark Island, which is crucial for Iran's oil exports, and targeting desalination plants and refineries.
It is speculated that even without a ground invasion over these 3 days, it is unlikely to be calm.
Let's talk about some good news.
The relationship between gold and US Treasury yields should normally exhibit an inverse movement.
This is because both gold and US Treasuries have safe-haven attributes; when people buy gold and US Treasuries due to risk aversion, the prices of gold and US Treasuries rise, while Treasury yields decline.
Before 1979, the US was experiencing severe inflation, coinciding with the Iran hostage crisis (after the Islamic Revolution, pro-American Shah Pahlavi was overthrown and went into exile, while Iranian students stormed the US embassy, taking diplomatic personnel hostage and demanding the US hand over Pahlavi).
During that time, gold and Treasury yields fluctuated almost in the same direction. This indicates that the market was buying gold while selling US Treasuries. The market had very strong expectations of inflation and recession in the US.
However, currently, gold and Treasury yields are generally showing inverse fluctuations; observing short-term fluctuations, gold and Treasuries remain inversely correlated.
This means: the market does not currently have the strong expectations of US inflation and recession as it did in 1979.
Inflation is still present. In 1978, the average CPI exceeded 7%, with the US CPI at 9% in December 1978. Currently, the US CPI is below 3%. Oil prices will push up the CPI, but it should not rise to the levels of 1978 within six months.
The market expectation should still be primarily that the US-Iran conflict can be resolved in a short time.
Of course, from the perspective of gold, the price is accelerating upwards, driven by risk aversion-induced speculative behavior, which is still similar.
The relationship between gold and US Treasury yields should normally exhibit an inverse movement.
This is because both gold and US Treasuries have safe-haven attributes; when people buy gold and US Treasuries due to risk aversion, the prices of gold and US Treasuries rise, while Treasury yields decline.
Before 1979, the US was experiencing severe inflation, coinciding with the Iran hostage crisis (after the Islamic Revolution, pro-American Shah Pahlavi was overthrown and went into exile, while Iranian students stormed the US embassy, taking diplomatic personnel hostage and demanding the US hand over Pahlavi).
During that time, gold and Treasury yields fluctuated almost in the same direction. This indicates that the market was buying gold while selling US Treasuries. The market had very strong expectations of inflation and recession in the US.
However, currently, gold and Treasury yields are generally showing inverse fluctuations; observing short-term fluctuations, gold and Treasuries remain inversely correlated.
This means: the market does not currently have the strong expectations of US inflation and recession as it did in 1979.
Inflation is still present. In 1978, the average CPI exceeded 7%, with the US CPI at 9% in December 1978. Currently, the US CPI is below 3%. Oil prices will push up the CPI, but it should not rise to the levels of 1978 within six months.
The market expectation should still be primarily that the US-Iran conflict can be resolved in a short time.
Of course, from the perspective of gold, the price is accelerating upwards, driven by risk aversion-induced speculative behavior, which is still similar.
Science students are actually CPUs, while liberal arts students are storage or GPUs.
CPU: Science students all have computational abilities, mostly concentrated around medium computational capabilities, with few being very strong or very weak in computational skills.
Indeed, as Teacher Cyber said, science students follow a normal distribution, while liberal arts students follow a power-law distribution. (Undoubtedly, @CyberPhilos Teacher Cyber is a left-tail CPU)
Storage: Most liberal arts students have storage (memory) capabilities; some are like hard drives, capable of storing (remembering) knowledge for a long time; some are like flash drives, able to quickly store (remember) knowledge; and some are like RAM, able to quickly memorize but forget right after the exam.
😂
GPU: A small number of liberal arts students are long-tail; they are not storage types but rather parallel computing types. They not only do not memorize and recall but can deeply understand and integrate vast amounts of knowledge, rendering and creating more powerful and impactful things based on that.
The Douyin poetry teacher — "Teacher Han Xiao teaches poetry" is a GPU-type liberal arts student. He can present poetry logically and progressively to resonate rationally and emotionally with the readers.
Actually, Li Xueqin is also somewhat close to a GPU-type liberal arts student.
I personally feel that @Bitwux and @mscryptojiayi are GPU-type liberal arts students; not sure if my guess is correct, haha.
What do you think, is Brother Bee a science student or a liberal arts student?
What about you? What type of CPU are you? What type of storage? Or are you a powerful GPU?
CPU: Science students all have computational abilities, mostly concentrated around medium computational capabilities, with few being very strong or very weak in computational skills.
Indeed, as Teacher Cyber said, science students follow a normal distribution, while liberal arts students follow a power-law distribution. (Undoubtedly, @CyberPhilos Teacher Cyber is a left-tail CPU)
Storage: Most liberal arts students have storage (memory) capabilities; some are like hard drives, capable of storing (remembering) knowledge for a long time; some are like flash drives, able to quickly store (remember) knowledge; and some are like RAM, able to quickly memorize but forget right after the exam.
😂
GPU: A small number of liberal arts students are long-tail; they are not storage types but rather parallel computing types. They not only do not memorize and recall but can deeply understand and integrate vast amounts of knowledge, rendering and creating more powerful and impactful things based on that.
The Douyin poetry teacher — "Teacher Han Xiao teaches poetry" is a GPU-type liberal arts student. He can present poetry logically and progressively to resonate rationally and emotionally with the readers.
Actually, Li Xueqin is also somewhat close to a GPU-type liberal arts student.
I personally feel that @Bitwux and @mscryptojiayi are GPU-type liberal arts students; not sure if my guess is correct, haha.
What do you think, is Brother Bee a science student or a liberal arts student?
What about you? What type of CPU are you? What type of storage? Or are you a powerful GPU?
Someone received a 1BTC reward from the Binance Bitcoin button event, really tempting.
Come and see, how long can you lie flat in your province with the 1BTC event reward from Binance?
The shortest is in Shanghai, where 1BTC can allow someone to lie flat for at least 5 years.
In 5 years, BTC will experience halving again, and there will likely be a bull market.
So BTC will likely be able to sell for more money, so the time lying flat will likely be longer than this.
The longest in the city is in Heilongjiang, where 1BTC can allow someone to lie flat for at least 12 years.
And the longest in the countryside is in Gansu, where 1BTC can allow someone to lie flat for at least 33 years.
Of course, the premise is to consume according to per capita disposable income levels. BTC should not be wasted :)
Come see how long 1BTC can let you lie flat in your province?
Come and see, how long can you lie flat in your province with the 1BTC event reward from Binance?
The shortest is in Shanghai, where 1BTC can allow someone to lie flat for at least 5 years.
In 5 years, BTC will experience halving again, and there will likely be a bull market.
So BTC will likely be able to sell for more money, so the time lying flat will likely be longer than this.
The longest in the city is in Heilongjiang, where 1BTC can allow someone to lie flat for at least 12 years.
And the longest in the countryside is in Gansu, where 1BTC can allow someone to lie flat for at least 33 years.
Of course, the premise is to consume according to per capita disposable income levels. BTC should not be wasted :)
Come see how long 1BTC can let you lie flat in your province?
When some people have started to trade gold using candlestick charts, and retail investors have frantically entered the market, gold has already deviated from its fundamental property of being a safe-haven asset and has become a speculative product.
At this point, some mathematical models may become ineffective.
Gold is unlike stocks, which have cash flow and basic returns that can be utilized.
It is also unlike Bitcoin, which has relatively stable models such as rainbow charts and the Nine Gods Index that can be used.
Bitcoin has bull and bear markets, and while the cyclical rhythm may have deviations, it is still largely based on halving.
The volatility of Bitcoin is based on expectations. The volatility of gold, in terms of cycles and prices, may actually entail greater risks.
At this point, some mathematical models may become ineffective.
Gold is unlike stocks, which have cash flow and basic returns that can be utilized.
It is also unlike Bitcoin, which has relatively stable models such as rainbow charts and the Nine Gods Index that can be used.
Bitcoin has bull and bear markets, and while the cyclical rhythm may have deviations, it is still largely based on halving.
The volatility of Bitcoin is based on expectations. The volatility of gold, in terms of cycles and prices, may actually entail greater risks.
When some people have started to trade gold using candlestick charts, and retail investors have frantically entered the market, gold has already deviated from its fundamental property of being a safe-haven asset and has become a speculative product.
At this point, some mathematical models may become ineffective.
Gold is unlike stocks, which have cash flow and basic returns that can be utilized.
It is also unlike Bitcoin, which has relatively stable models such as rainbow charts and the Nine Gods Index that can be used.
Bitcoin has bull and bear markets, and while the cyclical rhythm may have deviations, it is still largely based on halving.
The volatility of Bitcoin is based on expectations. The volatility of gold, in terms of cycles and prices, may actually entail greater risks.
At this point, some mathematical models may become ineffective.
Gold is unlike stocks, which have cash flow and basic returns that can be utilized.
It is also unlike Bitcoin, which has relatively stable models such as rainbow charts and the Nine Gods Index that can be used.
Bitcoin has bull and bear markets, and while the cyclical rhythm may have deviations, it is still largely based on halving.
The volatility of Bitcoin is based on expectations. The volatility of gold, in terms of cycles and prices, may actually entail greater risks.
How to survive a bear market?
First, open up. To be honest, finding a job is not shameful; not being able to find a job is what’s shameful.
Delivering food and packages is actually a relatively free job. This is what the courier downstairs told me; he doesn’t like going to the office and prefers delivering packages and food because of the freedom. (And he earns a lot; he is the only one delivering for Shentong, Yuantong, and Jitu in our area 🤣)
Second, frugality is necessary; temporarily lowering desires is not a bad thing.
Third, reviewing is essential. However, the summary should go deeper; it’s not about superficial reviews but about a dynamic strategic summary. The goal is to quickly grasp and adapt to the characteristics of the next market cycle, rather than formulating strategies based on the last cycle's operations.
Finally, learning and practice. Some basic knowledge is necessary, such as macroeconomics, candlestick techniques, industry narratives, and sector distribution. Simulated trading is a great tool.
Agree or like, if you disagree, please add:)
First, open up. To be honest, finding a job is not shameful; not being able to find a job is what’s shameful.
Delivering food and packages is actually a relatively free job. This is what the courier downstairs told me; he doesn’t like going to the office and prefers delivering packages and food because of the freedom. (And he earns a lot; he is the only one delivering for Shentong, Yuantong, and Jitu in our area 🤣)
Second, frugality is necessary; temporarily lowering desires is not a bad thing.
Third, reviewing is essential. However, the summary should go deeper; it’s not about superficial reviews but about a dynamic strategic summary. The goal is to quickly grasp and adapt to the characteristics of the next market cycle, rather than formulating strategies based on the last cycle's operations.
Finally, learning and practice. Some basic knowledge is necessary, such as macroeconomics, candlestick techniques, industry narratives, and sector distribution. Simulated trading is a great tool.
Agree or like, if you disagree, please add:)
Streamlined Version: Why are altcoins performing poorly this round? Everyone has overlooked one thing!
In 2021, excess liquidity led to VCs investing too much in VC coins. So by 2025, there will be too many VC coin TGEs, resulting in VC coin redundancy.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve did not ease in 2025, which led to more selling pressure and less buying pressure for altcoins in that year.
Although there are still VC coins raising funds in 2025, it is still a growth compared to 2017, but significantly less than in 2021.
Thus, in the next market cycle, VC coins will not vanish. Unless macro liquidity is not sufficiently loose, altcoins/VC coins will not perform as poorly as in 2025.
In 2021, excess liquidity led to VCs investing too much in VC coins. So by 2025, there will be too many VC coin TGEs, resulting in VC coin redundancy.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve did not ease in 2025, which led to more selling pressure and less buying pressure for altcoins in that year.
Although there are still VC coins raising funds in 2025, it is still a growth compared to 2017, but significantly less than in 2021.
Thus, in the next market cycle, VC coins will not vanish. Unless macro liquidity is not sufficiently loose, altcoins/VC coins will not perform as poorly as in 2025.
TVBee
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Altcoins/VC coins will not disappear; they will only trend towards becoming like U.S. stocks
┈➤The contradiction of the altcoin season and the redundancy of VC coins
╰✦Actually, the 2025 altcoin season has come before
Around May~August 2025, BTC is rising while market share is declining. During this phase, the market share of altcoins is increasing.
BTC is rising, and the total market value of altcoins is growing more; this is the altcoin season.
╰✦The redundancy of VC coins
The contradiction of the altcoin season is that the total market value is growing, but the market has no perception of the altcoin season.
This is because the total market value of altcoins is growing, but there are simply too many altcoin varieties, resulting in most individual altcoins not showing significant increases.
╰✦Actually, the 2025 altcoin season has come before
Around May~August 2025, BTC is rising while market share is declining. During this phase, the market share of altcoins is increasing.
BTC is rising, and the total market value of altcoins is growing more; this is the altcoin season.
╰✦The redundancy of VC coins
The contradiction of the altcoin season is that the total market value is growing, but the market has no perception of the altcoin season.
This is because the total market value of altcoins is growing, but there are simply too many altcoin varieties, resulting in most individual altcoins not showing significant increases.
The reasons for the lack of liquidity in the crypto market are not just one or two.
The performance of altcoins/VC coins has been disappointing, and there is almost no dispute that BTC's performance in this round did not reach the highs suggested by various indicators, including the rainbow chart, MVRV, and other metrics. On the other hand, the overall performance of altcoins has been very poor.
In addition to the fact that the motivation for VC coins has been completely denied, another reason for BTC's mediocre performance and the overall poor performance of altcoins is the insufficient liquidity in the crypto market.
This lack of liquidity has created the first set of discrepancies with the bullish expectations for 2025.
First, there is a lack of macro liquidity; interest rates are expected to be cut three times by the end of 2024, and cuts will not begin until Q4 of 2025, with three cuts followed by a pause, maintaining relatively high interest rates throughout 2025. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue to slightly reduce its balance sheet throughout the year 2025.
In comparison to history, the annual growth rate of M2 in the U.S. from 2025 to the present is at a relatively low level. The annual growth rate of M2 is the month-to-month growth rate of M2 compared to the same period last year, representing the increase (or decrease) in liquidity that the market can intuitively feel. A low annual growth rate of M2 means that investors have not increased their money much compared to the same period last year. Coupled with the inflation situation, some investors may find that the money they can use for investment has become even less.
Second, expectations bring liquidity forward. The market expects a bull market in 2025, leading altcoin investors to bring liquidity into the market early in 2024, leaving almost no new traders or funds entering in 2025.
Third, the heat of AI has significantly boosted U.S. stocks, siphoning off some liquidity from value investors.
Fourth, platforms like PUMP have triggered MEME explosions, drawing away another portion of liquidity from speculators.
As a result, the liquidity available for VC coins/altcoins is very limited and continues to dwindle.
The performance of altcoins/VC coins has been disappointing, and there is almost no dispute that BTC's performance in this round did not reach the highs suggested by various indicators, including the rainbow chart, MVRV, and other metrics. On the other hand, the overall performance of altcoins has been very poor.
In addition to the fact that the motivation for VC coins has been completely denied, another reason for BTC's mediocre performance and the overall poor performance of altcoins is the insufficient liquidity in the crypto market.
This lack of liquidity has created the first set of discrepancies with the bullish expectations for 2025.
First, there is a lack of macro liquidity; interest rates are expected to be cut three times by the end of 2024, and cuts will not begin until Q4 of 2025, with three cuts followed by a pause, maintaining relatively high interest rates throughout 2025. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue to slightly reduce its balance sheet throughout the year 2025.
In comparison to history, the annual growth rate of M2 in the U.S. from 2025 to the present is at a relatively low level. The annual growth rate of M2 is the month-to-month growth rate of M2 compared to the same period last year, representing the increase (or decrease) in liquidity that the market can intuitively feel. A low annual growth rate of M2 means that investors have not increased their money much compared to the same period last year. Coupled with the inflation situation, some investors may find that the money they can use for investment has become even less.
Second, expectations bring liquidity forward. The market expects a bull market in 2025, leading altcoin investors to bring liquidity into the market early in 2024, leaving almost no new traders or funds entering in 2025.
Third, the heat of AI has significantly boosted U.S. stocks, siphoning off some liquidity from value investors.
Fourth, platforms like PUMP have triggered MEME explosions, drawing away another portion of liquidity from speculators.
As a result, the liquidity available for VC coins/altcoins is very limited and continues to dwindle.
TVBee
·
--
Altcoins/VC coins will not disappear; they will only trend towards becoming like U.S. stocks
┈➤The contradiction of the altcoin season and the redundancy of VC coins
╰✦Actually, the 2025 altcoin season has come before
Around May~August 2025, BTC is rising while market share is declining. During this phase, the market share of altcoins is increasing.
BTC is rising, and the total market value of altcoins is growing more; this is the altcoin season.
╰✦The redundancy of VC coins
The contradiction of the altcoin season is that the total market value is growing, but the market has no perception of the altcoin season.
This is because the total market value of altcoins is growing, but there are simply too many altcoin varieties, resulting in most individual altcoins not showing significant increases.
╰✦Actually, the 2025 altcoin season has come before
Around May~August 2025, BTC is rising while market share is declining. During this phase, the market share of altcoins is increasing.
BTC is rising, and the total market value of altcoins is growing more; this is the altcoin season.
╰✦The redundancy of VC coins
The contradiction of the altcoin season is that the total market value is growing, but the market has no perception of the altcoin season.
This is because the total market value of altcoins is growing, but there are simply too many altcoin varieties, resulting in most individual altcoins not showing significant increases.
Now is the time to observe crude oil; the expectation of recession is due to oil prices, fluctuations in the US stock market are due to oil prices, and fluctuations in Bitcoin are also due to oil prices...
Binance is about to launch U.S.-denominated contracts for WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and natural gas.
After these three products are launched, Binance will support trading of 30 kinds of TradeFi assets, covering precious metals, energy, ETFs, and US stocks, including Chinese concept stocks.
Among them, 22 kinds of assets support U.S.-denominated perpetual contract trading, and 20 kinds of assets support spot trading in the Alpha market.
Binance is about to launch U.S.-denominated contracts for WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and natural gas.
After these three products are launched, Binance will support trading of 30 kinds of TradeFi assets, covering precious metals, energy, ETFs, and US stocks, including Chinese concept stocks.
Among them, 22 kinds of assets support U.S.-denominated perpetual contract trading, and 20 kinds of assets support spot trading in the Alpha market.
To add, the previous analysis was based on a constant population.
In some cities, population outflow may lead to a shrinking demand in both the transaction market and the rental market, which would cause both housing prices and rents to decrease.
Of course, it is still possible to pay attention to the rental-sale ratio. Because for those with rigid demand, if buying a house is equivalent to 200 months to 30 years of rent, then renting may indeed not be as good as buying one.
In some cities, population outflow may lead to a shrinking demand in both the transaction market and the rental market, which would cause both housing prices and rents to decrease.
Of course, it is still possible to pay attention to the rental-sale ratio. Because for those with rigid demand, if buying a house is equivalent to 200 months to 30 years of rent, then renting may indeed not be as good as buying one.
TVBee
·
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In the medium term, housing prices may not necessarily continue to decline.
In the cities where Brother Bee is located, which are second and third-tier cities, they are not provincial capitals, but their recognition is on par with provincial capitals. Recently, attention has been paid to houses near the municipal government; housing prices have been falling in recent years, but rents have actually increased a bit.
Brother Bee analyzes that this is due to the expectation of falling housing prices, where some investment properties are listed for sale, reducing the supply in the rental market; on the other hand, some people are choosing to rent instead of buy, which has increased demand.
Although the domestic population growth rate is slow, the overall population size is still quite large.
Therefore, in the medium term, housing prices should not be without a bottom. As for how to judge what Teacher Feng Wuxiang said about "there being no bubble," one can consider observing the rental yield ratio indicator, which is the ratio of housing prices to rents.
Friends with a demand for necessary housing can pay attention to these two data points:
1. The internationally recognized reasonable range for the "rental yield ratio" is 200-300 months, meaning that if you buy a house outright and rent it out, it will take 200-300 months to break even.
2. Some domestic media mention a "rental yield ratio" of 30 years, generally believed to be the point at which the rental yield ratio falls to 30 years, which means that renting out a house bought outright can break even in 30 years.
In the cities where Brother Bee is located, which are second and third-tier cities, they are not provincial capitals, but their recognition is on par with provincial capitals. Recently, attention has been paid to houses near the municipal government; housing prices have been falling in recent years, but rents have actually increased a bit.
Brother Bee analyzes that this is due to the expectation of falling housing prices, where some investment properties are listed for sale, reducing the supply in the rental market; on the other hand, some people are choosing to rent instead of buy, which has increased demand.
Although the domestic population growth rate is slow, the overall population size is still quite large.
Therefore, in the medium term, housing prices should not be without a bottom. As for how to judge what Teacher Feng Wuxiang said about "there being no bubble," one can consider observing the rental yield ratio indicator, which is the ratio of housing prices to rents.
Friends with a demand for necessary housing can pay attention to these two data points:
1. The internationally recognized reasonable range for the "rental yield ratio" is 200-300 months, meaning that if you buy a house outright and rent it out, it will take 200-300 months to break even.
2. Some domestic media mention a "rental yield ratio" of 30 years, generally believed to be the point at which the rental yield ratio falls to 30 years, which means that renting out a house bought outright can break even in 30 years.
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