TVBee

The biggest misconception in Web3—MicroStrategy “chases highs and sells lows”?

MicroStrategy isn’t a “sell-lows” case for any reason. The previous article already analyzed it thoroughly. This time, let’s talk about why MicroStrategy doesn’t “chase highs.”

To know: MicroStrategy isn’t buying BTC with savings—it’s issuing financing of $MSTR to buy BTC.

When BTC is expensive, MSTR is also expensive. The higher BTC goes, the higher the MSTR premium becomes. Issuing MSTR to buy BTC is actually more cost-effective!

At the bottom, issuing 10,000 MSTR only allows you to buy 14 BTC. At the top, issuing 10,000 MSTR can buy 40 to 60 BTC.

So clearly, issuing MSTR to buy BTC at the top is more value for money.

No wonder Saylor is a genius. Even SBF might not be able to catch up in his lifetime. The real point for MicroStrategy isn’t the book profit.

◆ For corporate entities: Because MicroStrategy didn’t sell BTC at a high point, there are no distributable profits, so there’s no need to pay traditional corporate income tax.

◆ For preferred shareholders: Preferred shareholders like $STRC also don’t have to pay dividend withholding tax.

◆ For common shareholders: Even though the company has no distributable profits and MSTR shareholders don’t receive dividend payouts, they can still make money as BTC rises.

The result is a win-win-win! The only one potentially losing is the U.S. Treasury, which collects less tax.

The midterm election is just around the corner, and the U.S. military strikes Iran again. Who gave Trump the courage—was it Lin Qingxia?

Does Trump not want the Strait of Hormuz to open? Is he not afraid of oil prices rising?

Of course not!

┈➤ The U.S. and Venezuela reach an oil deal

Trump’s confidence lies in Venezuela.

◆ August 28: Trump announced an oil agreement with Venezuela.
◆ August 29–30: Venezuela’s side released more details of the agreement.
◆ August 30–31: U.S. forces attacked Iran again.

This timeline, and the fact that the two events are so close together, inevitably makes people think there’s a cause-and-effect relationship.

┈➤ A respectable deal

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio posted on X, confirming that $100 billion in private investment would support Venezuela’s oil extraction.

Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, has also made it clear that both sides have signed a 25-year energy agreement, with the goal of developing 17 strategic oil fields.

Bro Bee looked into some media reports, and this time the U.S.–Venezuela deal is, by and large, fairly respectable.

The cooperation this time is between the U.S. government and Venezuela’s private enterprise NABEP. NABEP does not have ownership of the oil fields—only the right to develop them.

In terms of controlling shares, the U.S. has 35%, and Venezuela has 65%.

An important detail in the agreement is that the U.S. can buy 20% of the oil production first at cost price.

Some Chinese-language media’s reports about so-called “major control rights” are too vague.

In reality, Venezuela’s equity is higher—65%—while the U.S. has the higher allocation right for oil production, at 55%.

Therefore, Venezuela still retains sovereign control over the oil and resources. What the U.S. gets is future crude oil supply.

┈➤ To wrap up

It’s precisely because of this agreement that Trump has the confidence. After Venezuela’s oil industry is rebuilt, it can increase crude production and export to the U.S., helping to push down U.S. oil prices.

Of course, rebuilding oil infrastructure in Venezuela after years of disruption also takes time. So in the short term, it can at most provide emotional reassurance about oil prices. In the short run, Trump likely won’t take large-scale action against Iran—at least not before the midterm election.

Has this BTC rally finished?

┈➤ Angle 1: Daily RSI divergence

First, a quick correction: in the 4-hour chart, the last point’s RSI is not diverging—you need to look at the closing price, because RSI is calculated based on closes. Using the wicks alone isn’t accurate.

However, on the daily timeframe, the RSI divergence is real. As shown in Figure 1.

During the May rally where Kezhou reached a high, after the daily RSI14 divergence, there was a pullback—then price surged upward again.

So for the daily timeframe’s divergence, when BTC retraces to around 77,000, we can’t yet conclude that the rally has ended—unlike the May situation, the divergence here still doesn’t confirm the end of the trend.

┈➤ Angle 2: USDT fund flows

As shown in Figure 2, over the past week, the total USDT market value has been generally trending upward. After Waller’s comments, it dipped, but it quickly recovered again.

Also as shown in Figure 3, over the past week USDT has been ranging around $1, with about half the time trading at a positive premium. After Waller’s comments it fell, but it soon returned to around $1—currently it’s at $0.9999.

There are no signs of funds leaving, suggesting that this leg may not be over yet.

But the inflow magnitude isn’t very large—possibly because the market still can’t be sure the bull market has started.

┈➤ Angle 3: Waller’s speech

Waller is still somewhat hawkish, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will raise rates immediately.

The Fed has to build expectations for rate hikes—no need to overanalyze. In one sentence, it’s to curb the "wage-inflation" spiral.

Although CME rate futures show a 59.7% probability of a rate hike in September, and a 40.3% probability that rates will stay unchanged.

However, PM forecasts a 51% probability that rates will remain unchanged in September, as shown in Figure 4. So a rate hike in September is not certain. “Bee brother’s” analysis is that they won’t hike. If there is a hike, it would be a negative surprise—but not extremely unexpected. On the contrary, not hiking could be a positive.

┈➤ Angle 4: Other events

There are two other events. One is the CLEAR Act. At Trump’s urging, it is tentatively set to begin pre-voting on September 15. Currently, Polymarket’s prediction for the probability that this bill passes this year is only 14%, which means the expectation for it to pass in September is nearly nonexistent.

So from today’s timing, if the bill doesn’t pass, that would be in line with expectations—but if it does pass, that would be a positive catalyst.

The second event is that Circle’s ARC permissioned chain will go live on the mainnet on September 16. That’s the same day as the Fed’s FOMC meeting, so it could also stir up sentiment.

┈➤ Closing thoughts

Overall, this leg of the BTC rally may not be over yet.

Brothers!! I finally understand why MicroStrategy sold BTC at the bottom!

Damn it, you’re still the boss!

Here’s the deal: Fengge coin is over in the US stock market through Anzhen America—after buying $STRC , it received STRC dividends. Half a month is $5.64.

The holdings are 11.27581758 shares, and the par value per share is $100.

The annualized return is 5.64/(11.27581758*100)*24 = 12%.

This is the STRC dividend yield—somehow there’s no tax on receiving preferred stock dividends
(tax rate 30%). (They keep promoting Bstocks, but Binance’s real stocks are also pretty good. Fengge also benefits from STRC’s rise from $88 to $97, plus a 12% annualized dividend yield.)

Why no tax on preferred stock dividends? After some digging, Fengge found out that the US rule is: if a listed company has no distributable profits, then preferred stock dividends don’t have to be taxed!

When MicroStrategy sells BTC below its cost basis, it creates a realized loss. At that point, preferred stock shareholders don’t have to pay tax.

Now BTC is already above MicroStrategy’s cost, but even if MicroStrategy sells BTC at this time, any profits must first cover the previous losses. Only after that could there be distributable profits. So even if MicroStrategy is in a profitable state, as long as it doesn’t sell too much BTC, STRC shareholders can still avoid paying tax and directly take the 12% annualized return.

Salor was originally fighting for benefits for STRC shareholders—and the source of these benefits isn’t paid for by holders of $MSTR, nor is it borne by BTC holders. It’s simply that the US Treasury collects less tax.

At the same time, this also means that once MicroStrategy is in profit, the amount of BTC it’s willing to sell is very small.

Doesn’t it feel like double happiness at once? 😂

Are people in the crypto world too optimistic? Too smart? Or just too foolish?

CME interest-rate futures show a 57.5% probability of a rate hike in September, but Polymarket has it at only 51%.

What tools can be used to scrape and compare the data behind these two probabilities? It feels like there’s a trading opportunity here.

Brother Feng, based on his own analysis, bought $10 for the September rate to stay unchanged. He’s lost too much before—so he has a little money left to play around with it.

Because Waugh’s remarks are more hawkish, does the Fed need to raise rates in September?

First, the conclusion—consistent with Uncle Mao’s view—it’s unlikely the Fed will raise rates in September.

The only basic reason for a rate hike is inflation. But there may be more reasons to *not* raise rates.

┈➤ Reasons not to raise rates

First, from Uncle Mao’s perspective: high interest rates have a relatively small impact on AI and tech-market performance, but a much larger negative impact on real-economy sectors like real estate and retail that rely on financing.

Second, from Brother Feng’s perspective: Treasury yields are already not low. If rates continue to be raised, it will increase the Treasury’s borrowing costs, pushing Treasuries into a vicious cycle. Although the Federal Reserve is independent, it should still be mindful of the risks in the Treasury market.

Third, what the employment data suggests: after being revised down, nonfarm payrolls show a sustained downward trend, and the most recent data is negative—this is a headwind for a rate hike. The Fed may not be responsible for Treasuries, but balancing prices and employment is its stated responsibility.

Fourth, slower GDP growth. The annualized QoQ GDP growth rate in Q2 is lower than in Q1.

Fifth, slower growth in U.S. stocks. Growth in U.S. equities has slowed, even showing a slight downward trend. You can’t just say that rate hikes will suppress an AI bubble anymore.

Sixth, Brother Feng’s “inner reasoning” theory: earlier, a Federal Reserve governor named Lisa D. Cook shifted from dovish to hawkish, and Trump even tried to fire her. While we can’t be sure these two events are causally related, Trump’s personality is well known. Among Fed officials who vote, surely fewer than half would insist on raising rates before the midterm election.

┈➤ Why Waugh’s stance is so contradictory

On one hand, he says he wants to reduce “forward guidance.” On the other, while delivering hawkish remarks, he gives guidance to the market.

Wanting to reduce “forward guidance” isn’t the first time for Waugh. Previously, he said he wanted to cancel or reform the dot plot—suggesting that the new officials need to “light three fires.”

As for the hawkish commitment, Brother Feng has analyzed more than once that it’s meant to guide market expectations. When markets expect rate hikes, workers are less inclined to demand higher wages, which helps prevent inflation from being aggravated by wage growth—i.e., suppressing the “wage-inflation” spiral.

┈➤ Written at the end

Hawkish speeches don’t necessarily mean an imminent acceleration. Managing expectations also has a certain effect in suppressing inflation.

Even though there aren’t conditions to cut rates right now, there are also not sufficient conditions to raise rates.

Honestly, I’m really at a loss.

Vance’s speech is kind of hawkish—pretty much as expected.

The problem is: while he says he wants to reduce the “forward guidance,” he’s right there doing the very “forward guidance” he’s opposing...

As he spoke, the probability of a rate hike in September rose again above the probability of keeping rates unchanged.

Brother Feng first sold the spot ETH he bought at 2500, but the one he bought at 2450 is still being held.

BTC80700+, 80800 area has quite strong selling pressure here. There are quite a lot of concentrated sell orders; on Coinbase, below 808 there are 622 BTC placed as sell orders.

From this level and below, the next resistance level is around 82000. However, right now there aren’t many sell orders; between 80800 and 82000, there are currently roughly 200+ open orders.

After going above 82000, for now, when looking at the depth chart, there’s no longer any concentrated order placement.

Stop watching the drama! BTC is back to 80k again!!

Last night, I specifically checked the market cap and price of USDT, and at the time I said that the funds were moving in and about to enter.

Today, congratulations—USDT is back to $1! You know what I mean : )

USDT market cap started to rise, and at the same time the price has immediately ended the negative premium.

Last night there was bad news from the PCE, but at 23:10 last night, there was a one-time issuance of 135 million.

Right now this growth rate isn’t that fast yet—it's more like funds are stepping in and entering the market.

Although the daily candlestick hasn’t closed yet, basically the attempt to push higher has failed, and the daily RSI is showing a divergence.

Next, Bitcoin could take a breather. Key things to watch are the PCE data on Wednesday, the NVDA earnings report on Thursday, and the speech by Waller on Friday—especially the PCE data tomorrow evening.

If you follow the “carving on the boat” approach to the May market, after a pullback there could be another wave. But this time the rally is very strong, so it can’t be treated as a simple repeat of the same pattern.

After that, what may influence the market is likely the progress of the crypto clarity bill. Before the pre-vote on September 15, there could also be expectation-driven volatility. Then comes the FOMC meeting on September 16 (17th Beijing time) and the dot plot.

Personally, Bee Brother thinks that in the macro sense, before the midterm election, there shouldn’t be much in the way of negative news.

Good news: BTC's rise is no longer being affected by the “Clear Act.”

This increase was originally rising in sync with the probability of the “Clear Act.” On August 19, a crypto event was held at the White House, where they personally pressured Congress to advance the “Clear Act.” The SEC and CFTC cooperated as well.

This afternoon, the predicted probability on polymarket for the crypto “Clear Act” suddenly dropped from 24% to 15%.

But first, BTC didn’t react—about two hours later, it started to rise…

Sigh, a bit of a joke on myself.

Yesterday the chart was empty for Unitree, and Sunday spot wasn’t even open. The contract still dropped—this will likely keep falling.

Because on Friday’s close it was over 99, I placed a short at 99, thinking I’d add to the position. But… it didn’t get filled.

All that extra short at 99—I should’ve just gone all in long instead… mainly because on Hyper it’s isolated margin, and the liquidation price is too low; I should’ve opened the trade on Binance.

Is this a bull run rebound—or a “big dip” return? Here might be the answer

┈➤ BTC spot/futures volume ratio

The 30-day moving average of this ratio is shown in the chart.

From July 2022 to January 2023, there was a clear rise to an extremely high point. This process is when the smart money (including both institutions and retail participants) completes accumulation.

After that, all the way through the bull top in 2025, there has never been such a high spot/futures volume ratio again.

Now, this ratio hasn’t risen to a very high level yet. Even if there are ETF buy flows, it still requires the ETF market makers (APs) to buy BTC spot.

So, the main players may not have finished accumulating yet.

┈➤ Political and economic factors

Geopolitically, the U.S.-Iran issue may be far from being resolved. The current calm is only because Trump has had to pause some more extreme measures in order to deal with the midterm election. There’s still a possibility of more “things blowing up” afterward.

Economically, my view is that the Federal Reserve will most likely not raise rates again. But from December to next Q1, it’s still not possible to rule out one more hike.

What’s most frightening is U.S. Treasuries. If long-term Treasury yields keep rising, it may eventually trigger a blow-up risk. Even if Treasuries don’t “blow up,” it’s still a sword of Damocles hanging over our heads.

┈➤ Written at the end

I believe the bear market is nearing its end, but it’s not certain that a bull market has already started. Due to political and economic uncertainty, the outlook for what comes next is more likely to be continued shakeouts, and the main players also need this shakeout process to keep accumulating.

I’ve always thought there would be a three-step probe (three dips), but I never said the third probe would definitely be a new low—or that it would definitely drop to around 60,000. From the perspective of “the cartel’s conspiracy,” why would they drop further below 60,000 to let retail investors get on board?

Either it drops even lower and lower, making retail investors afraid to board, or it drops to a place that doesn’t hurt much—so retail investors feel unwilling, not satisfied, but also not fully shaken out.

Someone says that Brother Feng has been slightly contrarian recently. Actually, over the past month, Brother Feng has been bullish the whole time. There were some stage-by-stage shifts to bearish, but overall the direction has always been bullish. He hasn’t opened any short positions—only long positions.

Of course, they’re all small accounts. Brother Feng’s analysis still holds up. He feels he’s about 75 points accurate, but his trading skills are too poor for large positions yet. He’s still in the practice phase.

Is 82,000 the next resistance level for BTC?

Some friends have mentioned that 82,000 may be near the high from about five months ago.

Yesterday from midday into the evening, Bee Brother basically kept monitoring Coinbase’s BTC order book continuously. For most of the time, there were two main clusters of placed orders: around 79,000 and around 80,000.

Right now, after the first level was broken, price has returned and is staying above 77,000.

Today, from midday to evening again, the two key areas where Coinbase has concentrated orders are at 80,000. Above that is 88,000.

Also, you might want to watch the PCE data next Wednesday.

Trump calls for using "the military to solve the U.S. debt problem"—don’t treat it like a joke, okay!

┈➤Trump is answering a hypothetical question

A reporter interviews him about the U.S. debt issue. First, Trump expresses trust in the Treasury Secretary.

Then the reporter asks what happens if U.S. debt yields rise again. In fact, this is a hypothetical question, because the accelerated purchases of long-term Treasuries proposed by Bessent are not set to begin until September 9, so it’s impossible to determine whether the policy will be effective.

And when faced with this hypothetical question, Trump says "use the military to solve it."

┈➤Not funny at all

Trump isn’t the Treasury Secretary—he’s the president, and he’s considering the bigger picture.

There are three reasons why long-term Treasury yields rise:

First, the scale of U.S. debt expansion has been too fast, which affects market confidence and expectations for U.S. Treasuries.

Second, the market’s expectations for long-term inflation in the U.S. dollar. If the dollar is expected to weaken over the long term, the expected value of long-term Treasuries also declines.

Third, the tug-of-war between the U.S. and Iran has been going on for half a year and still hasn’t been resolved. As a result, market confidence in America’s military—or broader—capability weakens, which also affects the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. (Remember back on January 3, when the U.S. directly took away Venezuela’s then president? As the U.S. dollar index rose and U.S. Treasuries rose, the most obvious increase was the USD-to-CNY exchange rate.)

The first reason is from a fiscal perspective. The second reason is essentially oil prices, which brings things back to U.S.-Iran relations—so the last two reasons, in essence, could be the same issue.

In his answer, Trump assumes that everyone—including the reporter—knows that America’s military and international influence, as well as U.S.-Iran and Strait issues, affect the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. Besides, the reporter’s question premise is: what if fiscal tools don’t work? Then of course it would be military strength.

┈➤Even a bit frightening

In the end, Trump said, "If it’s necessary to use military force, we will definitely use it."

If the U.S. were truly to launch a ground invasion of Iran, that would not be good news. Back when the U.S. invaded Iraq, it took 43 days, but Iran’s land area is nearly four times that of Iraq. Add Iran’s drones, naval mines, and so on, and this could very well turn into a long conflict.

In short, one of the main reasons behind the U.S. debt problem is Iran, and one extreme way to address the U.S.-Iran problem is military action. Trump’s response isn’t just not funny—it could also be a bit frightening.

Of course, it’s possible Trump might have ways to deal with it that don’t involve military force. But how would he tell the reporter that?

What should you do if you missed the move?

If you’re afraid to gamble on the contracts, aren’t you still afraid to buy spot?

If you’re afraid to buy altcoins, aren’t you still afraid to go for big-picture Ethereum?

September 15 is the day for the Senate’s tentative pre-vote on the crypto clear-and-transparent law.

September 16 is the FOMC meeting.

Before that, you can’t think of any bad news. And after that, there may not necessarily be any either. In past midterm elections, no one really paid attention—things basically just went through the motions. But for Trump’s midterm election, there’s still a little bit of uncertainty. Before the midterm election, Trump needs a peaceful, harmonious environment.

So among the three scenarios—up, sideways, and down—the probability of a drop should be the lowest.

Brother Feng bought BTC below 60,000, so at around 2,500 2435 he bought a bit of ETH.

The position isn’t big. It’s more like building a starter base. If it drops again, you buy more and lower your average cost. This feels more psychologically comfortable than missing out, and helps prevent FOMO.

If it rises, you can consider trimming the position—do your position management, which is really doing your psychological management.

Overall, this trade won’t be something that can make you much money. It’s more like emotional, psychological management. It’s just my personal style.