TVBee

Good news: market expectations have changed—rate hikes are postponed from September to October; there will be no further rate hikes next year.

Yesterday’s CPI data was below expectations across the board. BTC surged, but CME’s interest rate futures still priced in a rate hike in September.

However, today, all four indicators for PPI and core PPI came in below expectations. Except for the month-over-month figure for core PPI, which was lower than the previous reading, everything was below expectations. See Figure 1.

The rate-hike expectations have finally changed.

For September, the odds are higher that the rate is 3.5%–3.75%, which matches the current level. See Figure 2.

And for October, the odds are higher that the rate is 3.75%–4%.

This indicates that market expectations have shifted from a September rate hike to an October one.

And all the way through September 2027, market expectations for the rate remain at 3.75%–4%. This suggests the market expects one rate hike in October, and then no more hikes thereafter.

As for a September rate hike—whether it’s stock prices, crypto prices, or U.S. Treasury yields—it may already be priced in.

If there won’t be a second rate hike next year, that should be good news. Of course, we still need to look at the September dot plot; it can provide more reference. But in the short term, sentiment should still be positive.

CPI data looks great—BTC has surged to 64,000.
But why are the September rate-hike expectations still here?

◆ Headline CPI YoY at 3.5%, below the forecast of 3.8%;
◆ Headline CPI MoM at -0.4%, below the forecast of -0.1%, and down from the previous 0.5%;
◆ Core CPI YoY at 2.6%%, below the forecast of 2.8%;
◆ Core CPI MoM at 0%, below the forecast of 0.2%, and down from the previous 0.2%.

All came in below expectations, and all were below the prior figures.

In July, tensions between the U.S. and Iran flared up again, causing oil prices to rebound slightly—so rate-hike expectations for September remain. The probability that the market’s expected rate for September is 3.75%–4% is 51.2%, slightly higher than the probability of no rate hike.

In June, Trump faced the “humiliating and surrendering” memorandum of understanding without any opposition. The market expects the strait to soon reopen, and oil prices fell to below 70 at one point (U.S. oil is what’s being watched; OPEC may be slightly higher).

In July, relations between both sides tightened again, but market panic over oil prices has been weakening. Even if oil rebounds again, it won’t be as strong as in March–April.

A September rate hike still can’t be ruled out, but a rate hike doesn’t necessarily mean the start (or continuation) of a full hiking cycle.

Tonight’s CPI data theoretically shouldn’t be too bad

First, oil prices have fallen. Oil prices have declined for two consecutive months in May and June. As shown in Figure 1.

Second, consumer confidence has declined. In June, the consumer confidence index was 91.2%, the lowest since March. As shown in Figure 2.

Even the CPI forecast figures are almost all below the previous values. The forecast value for the CPI month-on-month rate is even negative. As shown in Figure 3.

Fed Governor Waller said that if the June CPI data runs hot, it would support recent rate hikes. However, the June CPI data may match what people are expecting— or it could even be lower than expected.

◆Good news: MicroStrategy didn’t sell BTC last week
◆Bad news: It issued more MSTR, but also didn’t buy BTC
◆Good news: The USD reserves can cover dividend and interest payments through Feb 2028

┈➤Issuing more MSTR

Last week, MicroStrategy’s MSTR issued 4,818,781 shares.

Considering only Class A shares outstanding, this is equivalent to an increase of 1.37%. After the issuance, the total MSTR (Class A) share count is 356.784 million shares.

┈➤USD reserves increase to $3.0 billion

Last week, the additional MSTR issuance raised $466.7 million, but it didn’t buy any BTC. All of it was added to MicroStrategy’s USD reserve to pay future preferred stock dividends and interest.

As of July 12, MicroStrategy’s $3.0 billion reserve can cover all preferred stock dividends and convertible bond interest through Feb 2028, and part of March as well.

However, my guess is that salor is hoping the STRC price can return to $100—possibly because BTC is down today. STRC/STRF/STRK/STRD are all down today too.

MicroStrategy will most likely continue selling BTC. My guess is that it will sell at least another $2.25 billion worth.

Saylor: The orange dot only tells part of the story.

Last week it sold 3,588 BTC, and MicroStrategy will most likely sell at least another $2.25 billion worth of BTC.

┈➤$1.25B added reserves

Of that, $1.25B is used to replenish the dollar reserves. This capital is used to pay future preferred stock dividends. After all, preferred stock trading at a negative premium is the focus right now.

Not only STRC—besides STRE, which targets the European market, MicroStrategy’s other preferred stocks also all trade at negative premiums.

At Friday’s close: STRC $87, STRF $96, STRK $61, STRD $60.

┈➤$1B buyback of MSTR

$1B is for buying back $MSTR . When the MSTR/BTC ratio is low, using proceeds from selling BTC to buy back MSTR is more beneficial for MSTR.

┈➤$1B buyback of preferred stock may not be now

As for the $1B budget for buying back preferred stock, Bee Brother personally believes it’s more advantageous to sell BTC during a bull market.

Taking STRC as an example: at today’s price 87, with a historical high of 100. Suppose that in 2 years STRC rises to 110; plus dividends over 2 years of 24—then it would only increase by 54%.

Taking STRD as an example: at $60 today, with a historical high of less than 97. Suppose that in 2 years STRD rises to 100; plus dividends over 2 years of 20—then it would only about double.

In 2 years, BTC might not just double in price.

┈➤Paying dividends and interest

Some of the BTC sold will also be used to pay preferred stock dividends and interest on convertible bonds.

For this portion, MicroStrategy hasn’t set a specific limit.

However, given the current scale, the annual payments are $1.763B.

Bee Brother’s personal judgment is that MicroStrategy likely won’t sell BTC indefinitely for this expenditure.

Because selling too much BTC would excessively dilute MSTR’s BTC holdings, which is not good for the MSTR coin price.

After all, next September there will be convertible bonds maturing. For MSTR to convert these, it must rise to a certain price. Otherwise, MicroStrategy will face $1.01B in debt again in September next year.

┈➤Written at the end

Bee Brother thinks MicroStrategy should sell BTC worth more than $2.25B this year, but it probably won’t be too much more.

Based on the current BTC price, my guess is it will sell around 40,000 BTC, and it won’t be that much more.

On one hand, MicroStrategy will also protect MSTR’s BTC holdings and its price; on the other hand, funds from after the World Cup could potentially flow back in.

Binance Square’s newly added “AI Verification” is very useful—I testify!

┈➤The “True” label after AI verification

I previously misread MicroStrategy’s sell-coin quota, and that article didn’t give the “True” label because the AI didn’t provide it.

Later, I wrote a corrected article, and Binance Square’s AI provided the “True” label.

As shown in Figure 1

Clicking the “True” label will display the AI’s analysis content and information sources.

Users can also participate in the judgment by clicking “Agree” or “Disagree.”

As shown in Figure 2

┈➤An immature little suggestion

Bee Brother’s third screenshot is the ETF data Bee Brother summarized. This post’s data should be fine, but it didn’t receive the “True” label.

As shown in Figure 3

It feels like Binance Square could add an optional text box for an information source, and then the AI could further determine the post’s authenticity based on the reliability of the information source and the data.

┈➤Practical

Anyway, this is a practical feature!

For us analysts, if a post with subjective analysis doesn’t have this label, then we need to investigate where the mistake was.

For trading users reading posts, you should take a conservative attitude toward the content of posts that don’t have the “True” label.

Bad news is: MicroStrategy finally sold BTC.
Good news is: the dollar reserve can cover until November 2027.

┈➤ How much selling pressure does MicroStrategy have?

Last week, MicroStrategy sold 3,588 shares of MicroStrategy, raising $216 million, which accounted for 17.28% of the available sellable quota.

The remaining $1,034 million of quota can be sold. At a BTC price of $62,500, MicroStrategy can still sell 16,544 BTC.

And the 3,588 BTC sold last week, plus the effect of market sentiment, pushed BTC down to at least 57,000+.

Going forward, the effect of sentiment should theoretically weaken, so the downside space for BTC due to MicroStrategy’s sales may be relatively limited.

┈➤ How safe are MicroStrategy’s preferred shares?

All of the dollars from the portion sold last week were put into the dollar reserve to pay preferred stock dividends. Excluding the dividends paid in June, MicroStrategy’s dollar reserves are $2.55 billion, which can cover all dividend interest through November 2027 and part of December 2027.

Everyone, let’s take a look together and find out what other such counterfeit coins there are?

Feature 1: The number of times the “pins” go upward is noticeably higher than the number that go downward.

Feature 2: In 2026, it hardly seems to drop, and so far the bottom is not that different from the bottom at the end of 2025.

Feature 3: It has been listed on Coinbase or other major platforms, but it hasn’t yet been listed on Binance or OKX.

Don’t Be Fooled by US ETF Data

In February, May, and June 2026, US ETFs all saw net outflows of funds.

But the amount of BTC held by ETFs is growing every month.

Smart money on-chain could be truly smart money—or it could be a setup.

But ETF players are truly smart money. Even with net outflows of capital, they still manage to increase their BTC holdings.

Is anyone still waiting for $30,000 BTC?

The BTC weekly chart RSI has formed a bullish divergence at the bottom. June’s bottom is lower than February’s, but June’s RSI is higher than February’s.

The sell-side pressure is weakening.

The last time a weekly chart bottom bullish divergence occurred was in 2022, from June to November.

The daily chart RSI is also showing a bottom bullish divergence: from early June to early July, the BTC price was falling, but the RSI was higher.

US nonfarm payrolls for June missed expectations, with wage trends remaining mild

Nonfarm employment, forecast at 110,000; prior month at 129,000; actual at 57,000.

In addition, the labor force participation rate was 61.5%, also below last month and the expected 61.8%.

On wages, the monthly hourly wage was unchanged from expectations and last month (0.3%).

Overall, the data suggests that employment has cooled temporarily, wages are rising mildly, and there are currently no signs of a "wage-inflation" spiral.

CME interest rate futures show that market expectations for September have shifted to maintaining rates unchanged, but October still has expectations of a rate hike.

MicroStrategy’s impossible triangle—what is Saylor planning?

Three tough problems facing MicroStrategy: preferred share dividends, MSTR’s coin holdings, and the BTC price.

You can’t have all three.

Saylor’s current choice is to first protect preferred share dividend payments.

As for MSTR being diluted, Saylor mainly uses an approach of expectation management.

┈➤ Buy back MSTR with BTC to increase the coin holdings

Saylor proposed a plan to sell BTC to repurchase MSTR.

Ignoring the issuance costs and losses of an ATM offering:

When MSTR/BTC = 0.004, issuing 500 shares of MSTR lets you buy 2 BTC.

When MSTR/BTC = 0.002, to repurchase 500 shares of MSTR, you need to reduce holdings by 1 BTC.

So when MSTR/BTC later rises back to 0.004, issuing 500 shares of MSTR again allows you to buy back 2 BTC.

Therefore, when MSTR/BTC is very low, selling BTC to repurchase MSTR is beneficial for increasing MSTR’s coin holdings.

Of course, the proceeds from selling BTC could also be used to repurchase preferred shares, or be added to the dollar reserves to pay unpaid dividends.

But in the position where MSTR/BTC is low, buying back MSTR really does help expectations for MSTR.

┈➤ Limited BTC sales

Selling BTC to repurchase MSTR helps both (1) increase MSTR’s coin holdings and (2) reduce the amount of BTC.

That’s why Saylor’s BTC selling plan is capped at $1.25 billion.

This amount is only about 2.5% of MicroStrategy’s BTC holdings, and about 0.107% of BTC’s circulating market value.

Even though it may also affect market sentiment, Saylor has fixed the upper limit for BTC sales—again managing market expectations.

┈➤ Written at the end

Saylor has focused on protecting preferred shares: by strengthening the assurance of dividend payments, and by improving expectation management in three ways—raising dividend expectations and repurchasing preferred shares—boosting the market’s confidence in preferred shares.

And by clearly outlining the BTC sale quota, the plan to repurchase preferred shares, and the plan for MSTR, Saylor is managing the market’s expectations.

Overall, Saylor is achieving a certain balance across three areas: preferred share dividends, MSTR’s coin holdings, and the BTC price.

First, MicroStrategy has essentially preserved its ability to pay preferred share dividends (potentially through October 2027). The preferred shares have collectively rebounded, and STRC has returned to around 85.

Second, it may sell a limited amount of BTC—the impact on sentiment is larger than the actual selling pressure, so there will be some effect in the short term. BTC could fall as low as below 58,000.

Third, MSTR is temporarily stopping its decline.

Fourth, there is a cap on the amount from selling BTC, so there won’t be a death spiral.

$MSTR is repaying $STRC ……
┈➤ In the past, it was mainly preferred shares that carried the burden of MSTR’s BTC holdings.
Since 2025, overall MSTR / BTC has been trending downward.
Without considering losses from ATM issuance costs:
When MSTR/BTC=0.004, issuing 250 shares of MSTR can buy 1 BTC.
When MSTR/BTC=0.002, issuing 250 shares of MSTR can buy only 0.5 BTC.
In theory, when MSTR/BTC declines, MicroStrategy’s issuance of MSTR to buy BTC should result in a decreasing amount of BTC holdings.
However, according to MicroStrategy’s data, the ratio of MicroStrategy’s BTC holdings divided by ADSO (the adjusted number of common shares outstanding after dilution) — i.e., MSTR’s BTC holdings per share — is still growing overall.
This is because in February 2025, MicroStrategy began buying BTC by financing through issuing preferred stock, so MSTR’s BTC holdings are increasing.
This should be one of Saylor’s main motivations for issuing preferred stock: to make MSTR’s BTC holdings look better on paper.
┈➤ MSTR is repaying the preferred shares
Until very recently, preferred share prices have been falling across the board. Not only STRC — except for STRE, MicroStrategy’s preferred shares have all shown a downward trend.
For now, MicroStrategy is not suitable to raise more funds by issuing preferred stock.
Therefore, issuing additional MSTR via the ATM is the main way to finance.
In the past 5 weeks, MicroStrategy issued MSTR to raise $128.3, $181, $209, $333.5, and $1,152.4 million in sequence, but the additional BTC purchased were: -32 BTC, 1,550 BTC, 1,587 BTC, 520 BTC, and 0.
The fewer BTC purchased after issuing additional MSTR, the greater the dilution to MSTR. But it also means there will be more USD reserves available to pay future preferred stock dividends.
That is how MSTR repays the preferred shares.
In addition, MicroStrategy has also proposed a preferred stock repurchase plan and increased STRC’s dividend yield from 11.5% to 12%.
It’s clear that MSTR’s repayment is mainly aimed at STRC.
STRC is the most closely watched among MicroStrategy’s preferred shares. Improving market confidence in STRC effectively means improving market confidence in MicroStrategy as well.
As for the dilution of MSTR, @saylor has other strategies too—let’s talk about that tomorrow.

The first half of 2026 might be summed up in just one sentence: from cross-chain to cross-industry

The last day of the first half of 2026.

If it were any other year—even during the 2018 or 2022 bear markets—people would have already published all kinds of mid-year summaries, but so far I haven’t seen a single one.

The first half of 2026, Web3 has really been rather lackluster!

Basically, besides CEXs offering direct access to U.S. stocks or stock tokens, only HyperLiquid has real momentum.

Even the Phantom wallet has integrated HyperLiquid’s perpetual contract trading. And the trading volume is huge—$45 billion.

The Phantom wallet integrates DeBridge as well, enabling cross-chain transfers from the Solana network to mainstream EVMs.

And when the Phantom wallet integrates HyperLiquid, it’s essentially moving from a wallet into perpetual contracts—cross-industry, not just cross-chain. Of course, in Phantom, the flow of funds between the Solana chain and HyperLiquid at the underlying level is also via DeBridge.

From cross-chain to cross-industry, Phantom’s Prep has its own interface—meaning Phantom has effectively become a broker for HyperLiquid.

From the interface, aside from BTC, ETH, HYPE, and SOL, it seems even more popular are TradeFi assets like U.S. stocks, the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500, crude oil, and silver.

TradeFi trading on CEXs and DEXs is also a kind of cross-industry.

Clinging to any single chain or any single Web3 idea can’t be smart enough—whether it’s cross-chain or cross-industry, horizontal expansion and integration are the big trend!

Hope that in the second half of 2026, this big trend sparks some real sparks! Don’t let the second-half summary end up being only one sentence!!

Worried about MicroStrategy’s preferred stock? This time, you can finally sleep easy!

A $2.55 billion reserve can pay dividends through October 2027!

In Monday’s MicroStrategy 8-K filing, there were two major items:

First, it raised STRC’s dividend yield from 11.5% to 12%. This is the second adjustment to STRC this month. The first was changing STRC from paying dividends monthly to paying them semi-monthly; the second was directly increasing the dividend yield.

Second, last week it issued an additional 12,669,017 shares of MSTR. Net proceeds of $1,152.4 million were all added to the U.S. dollar reserve—no BTC was bought.

STRC’s price was boosted and rose above 81 in pre-market trading.

And the U.S. dollar reserve also increased to $255 million, enabling interest and dividends to be paid through October 2027.

As @saylor’s (free 😂) Chinese accountant, Brother Feng has talked about Saylor’s prudence more than once.

If you were worried about MicroStrategy’s preferred stock, you can relax this time.

Cross-chain is a track that cannot be ignored

DEX protocol revenue is high; in fact, cross-chain is also a significant contributor, because at its core, cross-chain has the nature of transactions.

In @DefiLlama’s classification channel (categories), the category with the highest TVL ranking is—Bridge, with total TVL of $45.365b.

Among the top 10 cross-chain bridges by revenue are SolvBTC, deBridge, Unit, LayerZero, Circle CCTP, WBTC, Allbridge, TeleSwap, Portal, and Axelar, etc.

DefiLlama places more emphasis on TVL, so things like WBTC are also categorized under deBridge.

@tokenterminal’s classification and reporting methodology are somewhat different; it mainly covers cross-chain platforms. The top 5 cross-chain bridges include deBridge DLN, Across, Allbridge, Stargate, Hyperbridge.

Meanwhile, Chainlink, deBridge, Layerzero, and Axelar are classified by tokenterminal as interoperability protocols.

Overall, the top 3 are Chainlink, SolvBTC, and deBridge.

Chainlink’s performance may be driven by the integration of Web2.

SolvBTC may be due to the high value of BTC.

The well-known Layerzero has already been surpassed by deBridge; it’s unclear whether this is related to a decline in Layerzero’s market share after the recent attack on KelpDAO.

One additional note: Tokenterminal separates deBridge’s underlying protocol (deBridge) from the cross-chain platform that users directly use (deBridge DLN) when reporting. The deBridge data should include deBridge DLN, similar to the relationship between Layerzero and Stargate.

And Axelar—which once drew a lot of attention—and Ethereum ecosystem WBTC were also not ranked in the top 3.

In fact, some cross-chain protocols had revenue in 2025, but by 2026, especially recently, their revenue has already become 0.

Finally, from an accounting perspective, Fee is the revenue, while Revenue is profit. Because different protocols have different ways of recognizing costs, comparing Fees is generally more reasonable.

BlackRock ETF users seem to be adding BTC in a swing trading manner.

Data from Ni mentions that BlackRock ETF is seeing outflows, which is the opposite direction of inflows from ARK and Fidelity.

This isn’t the first time this has happened in Bee Bro's experience. There have been multiple instances where other ETFs saw net inflows while BlackRock faced net outflows.

If ARK users are more inclined towards BTC, that could explain things. However, since both Fidelity and BlackRock cater to traditional finance users, the opposite trading directions are a bit puzzling.

I’m too lazy to look up the data, so I just asked @grok about which has a higher trade volume when you divide the BTC held by these ETFs.

Grok provided data showing that BlackRock's IBIT trade volume divided by BTC quantity has the highest ratio.

Bee Bro's guess is that BlackRock's BTC ETF users are smarter, with a higher trading frequency and relatively more swing trading operations.

Whether it's the total BTC held by the BTC ETFs (Chart 1) or the BTC held by the BlackRock BTC ETF (Chart 2), both show an upward trend heading into 2026.

So, it seems that BlackRock ETF users are likely adding to their BTC positions in a swing trading fashion.