律动BlockBeats

BlockBeats message. On August 2, CITIC Securities said that after missing this round of rate-hike timing, regardless of whether the U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates in September, U.S. stock valuations face pressure in the short term. But in the long run, once the rate hikes are implemented, they are expected to help release valuation pressure. Combined with the "Productivity and Employment Working Group"'s positive stance toward AI, the AI narrative in U.S. equities is likely to continue over the long term.
On July 29, the FOMC kept rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. Three voting members supported a 25 bps rate hike, and internal differences within the Fed became publicly visible. The market showed a split reaction of "doves on the short end, hawks on the long end." Rising inflation expectations weighed on the dollar and provided a window for Japan’s Ministry of Finance to intervene in the FX market. The high growth rate in CSP Cloud’s business, to a certain extent, eased concerns about the sustainability of AI’s triple capex. In the short term, rate-sensitive industries, high-valuation/low-growth sectors, and small-cap stocks are under pressure. The next shift in liquidity expectations points to a window to watch, namely the Jackson Hole meeting at the end of August or the September FOMC rate decision meeting.

BlockBeats message: On August 2, six major U.S. tech giants that released earnings this week saw a combined market value change of nearly $2 trillion, as investors pick winners based on cloud business growth and the returns on AI capital expenditures. The combined market value of Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft increased by nearly $1.5 trillion; Microsoft rose by more than $600 billion, while Amazon and Alphabet each gained more than $400 billion.
Meanwhile, Apple’s market value fell by more than $350 billion, Meta declined by about $85 billion, and Tesla fell by about $7 billion. Although Apple beat expectations for revenue, profit, and iPhone sales, it expects revenue growth of 9% to 11% this quarter, below analysts’ expected 12%, and said shortages of storage chips and competition for wafer capacity will continue to constrain supply. Its stock price fell by more than 7% on Friday.

BlockBeats message. On August 2, according to CNN, Trump announced the cancellation of the planned strikes against Iran, saying that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries requested a postponement. Earlier, sources said that Saudi Crown Prince contacted Trump to express his concerns. Military analyst and former U.S. Air Force colonel Cedric Leighton believes that both Saudi Arabia and Iran have sufficient reasons to prevent a further escalation of the regional conflict. Leighton noted that Saudi Arabia has been bearing economic pressure due to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and that as a key U.S. Gulf ally, its diplomatic mediation played an important role in prompting Trump to postpone the strikes. He also said Iran is under pressure as well due to the blockade of the strait and economic damage, and after five months of conflict, it may also be seeking time—working hard to maintain its survival.

BlockBeats message: On August 2, Trump Media Group officially launched a paid data service, Truth API, providing customers with faster access to posts from Trump and other top accounts on the Truth Social platform. The service costs up to $100,000 per month and is mainly aimed at trading firms and enterprises.
Kevin McGurn, the temporary CEO of Trump Media, said that Truth API is designed to provide institutions with a “direct, licensed, real-time stream of the most market-influential Truth posts.” Trump’s @realDonaldTrump account currently has 13 million followers, and some of its important policy decisions are first posted on Truth Social.

BlockBeats message. On August 2, according to Axios, two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the matter said that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke by phone on Saturday with U.S. President Donald Trump, expressing concern about a new plan for a large-scale strike against Iran. Previously, media reports said Trump was seriously considering attacking Iran’s energy targets in the coming days in response to Iran’s missile attack on a U.S. military base in Jordan and its continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, as of now, he has not issued a final order. “The Saudi side expressed concerns and asked for a clear action plan,” one U.S. official said.