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September 3 SPXC jumps more than 7% and moves back above $150. Market capitalization has returned to the $2 trillion club. But on September 9, the next round of lock-up period expiries will come, triggering releases in stages as stipulated in the S-1 filing. Insiders and early investors are selling, while index funds are buying passively. By year-end, approximately $600 billion in institutional holdings remains to be unlocked. Second-quarter capital expenditures reached $1.84 billion, and free cash flow was negative $2.5 billion in the first half. Although Oppenheimer has set a $280 target price, near-term supply pressure cannot be ignored.

$SPCX - Empty
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Ondo Finance will stop minting USDY on Aptos and Noble starting September 8, causing market concerns as its ecosystem map shrinks. At the same time, competition in the RWA track is intensifying: Solana’s monthly net inflow of $348 million has surpassed Ethereum, leading the market. In the tokenized stocks sector, Ondo is still ranked No. 1 with $869.6 million, but the overall space faces pressure from capital rotation as incremental funds are diverted.

$ONDO - Blank
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ICP has seen plenty of recent positive news. The DFINITY Foundation announced that 20% of cloud engine revenue will be used to burn ICP, shifting the tokenomics model toward deflation. Pakistan’s sovereign cloud infrastructure has already been running on ICP, and the first government application has been operating stably for four weeks without any downtime. A nationwide communications application is also set to launch. In addition, DFINITY continues to advance the integration of decentralized AI and the Bitcoin Layer-2 ecosystem.

But short-term risks cannot be ignored either. When Bitcoin dropped below $80,000, ICP surged against the trend by 13% to break above $3. On-chain derivatives trading volume skyrocketed 123.95% to $218 million, while open interest increased 14.43% to $104 million. The RSI has reached 75.49, placing it in an extreme overbought range. The market has begun characterizing this rally as a market move driven by “sentiment and a short squeeze,” rather than a fundamental shift. If the incoming breakout-chasing capital loses momentum, there is a significant risk of a near-term pullback.

$ICP - 空
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SNXX, as SanDisk’s 2x leveraged ETF, has recently followed its underlying asset amid multiple positive catalysts. The S&P 100 Index will be formally included in SanDisk (SNDK) on September 21, directly driving passive allocation demand from index funds. Lynx Research has set a $2,450 price target (still offering roughly 41% upside from the current price), with 20 out of 24 analysts giving a “Buy” rating. The South Korean government’s rollout of free, nationwide generative AI services will directly boost long-term demand for SanDisk NAND storage. JPMorgan previously raised its rating on SanDisk to “Overweight,” set a $2,250 price target, and noted that the long-term supply agreements it has signed with customers are worth about $94 billion. SanDisk and Kioxia also plan to invest more than $31 billion in capacity expansion for AI storage in Japan. With these positive developments resonating together, SNXX still has momentum to move higher in the near term.

$SNXX - More
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BCH has seen some subtle developments recently. On the one hand, on September 6, trading volume for its perpetual contracts on Binance surged 5-fold within 10 minutes, and the 24-hour trading value surpassed $100 million. On the other hand, the BCH price is still about 25% below the 200-day moving average and, technically, remains a rebound within a long-term downtrend structure.

From the perspective of fund competition, although large-lot longs lean bullish (65.9%), active sell orders in the spot market far exceed active buy orders (about 1.56:1). It appears that the “giant whales” are using futures to provide cover for spot selling. Combined with the macro backdrop—September rate hike expectations still as high as about 65%—this is not friendly for BCH, a well-known older coin with relatively thin liquidity.

$BCH - 空
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Grayscale Zcash spot ETF (ZCSH) launched on August 25. Although it initially attracted capital, over the past few trading sessions there has been a clear shift to net outflows. In just a few days, ZEC was violently pushed up from about $815 to $1,249. This surge is mainly driven by a short squeeze rather than any change in fundamentals. At current high levels, there are signs of a slowdown, on-chain transfer data has also started to decline, and selling pressure from short-term profit-taking is building up.

$ZEC - 空
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September unlocks 909,465 TRUMP per day for the entire month (about $2.23 million), with a total of approximately 27.28 million flowing into the market during the month. The team transferred out 11.01 million on September 2 (worth $26.65 million), of which 2 million have already gone to Binance. On September 18, another wave of 28.70 million (about 2.9% of circulating supply) will be unlocked. Nansen data shows that nearly 990,000 wallets have accumulated unrealized losses exceeding $3.8 billion.

$TRUMP - Empty
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$ASTER 9月1st, the team has just postponed the unlocking of 400 million tokens to September 2027. Immediately after that, they integrated with the Robinhood Chain and also launched a USD1 RWA Boost program with World Liberty Financial. But lately, the price has been hovering around 0.6, and any attempts to break upward clearly lack volume.

$ASTER - empty
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BULLA this week went from 0.02 to 0.09, more than four times—community hype is definitely high. But the exchange annotations all directly say: “The underlying asset belongs to an early-stage crypto project, and liquidity is limited.” This kind of explicit warning is rare. The circulating market cap is already 130 million—after such a brutal pump, profit-taking pressure will be huge.

$BULLA - Empty
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Samsung Electronics and SK hynix inventories have fallen below 10 days of supply, and next year’s DRAM and NAND demand is expected to exceed supply by more than 10 percentage points. Goldman Sachs reiterates its “Buy with conviction,” with a target price of 490,000 won. OpenAI’s new model “Astra” continues to stoke expectations for AI chips, with more than half of the company’s 4nm capacity already bet on HBM4.

$SAMSUNG - More
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The Korea Financial Services Commission just released on September 4 a three-step roadmap for tokenized securities. In official materials, Avalanche is listed as one of the potential technical base layers. Hanwha Investment & Securities has also built a tokenized securities platform supporting Avalanche. Combined with Ethena Pay newly going live exclusively on Avalanche, and Japan’s Progmat moving ¥452 billion in assets to the Avalanche L1, institutional-grade applications are being launched in dense clusters—fulfilling the RWA narrative.

$AVAX - Multi
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September 4th FIL is one of the worst-performing mainstream coins in the market, with a single-day drop of 4.8%. Although positives such as the end of the token unlock period on October 15 have been priced in early, the drop over the past week is still around 12% and trading volume has shrunk by about 82%. Under the dual pressure of suppressed macro interest-rate hike expectations and profit-taking, the short-term outlook is not optimistic.

$FIL - 空
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Doodles co-founder just posted a teaser with a new move, and with Jay Chou’s prior high-profile entry into the NFT scene, short-term hype has definitely been sparked. However, this pump from 0.0013 to 0.00238 feels more like a message-driven, impulse-like surge. Trading volume in the past 24 hours reached 170 million, but the price is already down nearly 5%, showing clear signs of capital exiting.

$DOOD - 空
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The “Dash” move is purely a sector rotation driven by the Zcash ETF. In a week it went from 30 to 78—an increase of over 150%. Trading volume at one point was close to half of the market cap. This looks like typical bull-broker speculation rather than a fundamental shift. The Dash Platform v1.1 mainnet launch and the DashCon 2026 conference are indeed solid catalysts, but once the conference ended, the positive news quickly got priced in.

Regulatory pressure on privacy coins in places like India has always been looming over the market. Add to that the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, where the market-implied probability of a rate hike is about 66%. In the face of macro negatives, high-beta altcoins are the most likely to get hit.

$DASH - 空
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South Korea's exports this year have cumulatively exceeded $709.4 billion, surpassing the entire previous year. In the first eight months, semiconductor exports reached $281.2 billion, a year-on-year surge of 169%. Yesterday, the KOSPI rose 4.6%, SK Hynix jumped 8%, and Samsung climbed 5%. Goldman Sachs keeps calling for a 12,000-point target— the AI memory chip cycle is far from over. KORU, a three-times leveraged long ETF on Korean stocks, can simply follow along accordingly.

$KORU - 多
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Inventory is less than 10 days; next year the DRAM and NAND shortages could exceed 10 percentage points. OpenAI’s Astra model has just been released, and HBM demand has exploded. On September 7, SK hynix’s Korean stock price surged by more than 6%. The share of 1c DRAM is also accelerating, and in the first quarter next year it will exceed 1b to become the main driver. However, the stock price has pulled back nearly 40% from its peak, and the semiconductor investment talks between the U.S. and South Korea have not been finalized yet.

$SKHY - More
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Solana’s August transaction volume surpassed 5 billion, crushing the combined total of all other public chains; in the RWA sector, net inflows over the past 30 days reached $348 million, with total scale at $4.23 billion—outpacing Ethereum to lead the whole field. Tomorrow, the Transaction V1 upgrade will raise the per-transaction limit from 1232 bytes to 4096 bytes, allowing complex operations to be completed in a single transaction. But last week, net inflows for spot ETFs plunged 96.6% to just $4.9 million; Arbitrum co-founder and Solana co-founder fiercely argued over the weekend about why Robinhood Chain chose Arbitrum instead of Solana, and the community has been voicing complaints about Solana’s relative weakness in winning top-tier applications. With both bulls and bears in play, the direction is far from clear.

$SOL - 空
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On September 4th, that wave of short squeezes pushed it up 10-13%, but it all got given back within two days. That day, the total trading volume across the whole internet hit more than $400 million; now on Binance spot, it’s down to only $27 million, with over 90% evaporated. The RSI is stuck in the middle at 55.93, and the MACD has also turned negative. The rate-hike probability for the Sept 15-16 FOMC meeting is still around 65%, and the macro environment is unfavorable for meme coins. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages below are hovering around 0.00000307-0.00000332, very close to the current price.

$1000PEPE - Sell
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Charlie Lee just said “Spot LTC ETF will be launched soon,” and right after that, Tuttle Capital submitted an application for the Litecoin Income Blast ETF. Plus, the amount of LTC held via MWEB privacy addresses has surpassed 519,000, setting a new high, and LitVM testnet transactions have also reached 250 million. The news flow is definitely lively, but the price is clearly lagging around the $55 area, and the RSI has moved into overbought territory—there’s quite some short-term profit-taking pressure.

$LTC - 空
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Price surged nearly 19% in a week—jumping straight from 0.95 to 1.08. Network activity spiked by 150%, and the whales accounting for the top 0.1% on Binance are 73.7% long. The DAO has just proposed a native stablecoin, dotUSD: it plans to seed an initial liquidity pool with 1.5 million USDT and 1.5 million DOT. The supply cap of 150 million DOT is also set to be reduced according to schedule.

But the issue is that after the price is pushed up, there’s no volume to back it. MACD momentum has already been exhausted, and the Bollinger upper band at 0.98 is stuck there. The 200-day moving average at 1.11 is exerting even stronger resistance. Moreover, Grayscale previously abandoned its DOT ETF plan, and open interest has fallen 11% over the past 24 hours—suggesting this move isn’t driven by fresh capital entering. It looks more like distribution. At this level, the risk is greater than the opportunity.

$DOT - - Empty
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