BITWU

On-chain options trading volume is still less than 1% of the volume on perpetual DEXs, while options trading in traditional markets is about three times the volume of futures.

In crypto, though, nobody seems to trade options anymore. Retail traders have gotten picky, and options are far less appealing than perpetuals.

This creates a very interesting paradox:

For on-chain options to attract hedging capital, they first need sufficient liquidity and competitive pricing;

but building liquidity also requires sustained trading demand, and the most active speculative capital has already been drawn to perpetuals.

As a result, speculators find options inconvenient, while professional institutions think on-chain options are too illiquid—so neither side is happy.

So here's the question:

Do on-chain options even have a future? 😂

A sharp selloff in U.S. tech stocks dragged crypto down, with $BTC and $ETH retreating in tandem.

SoFi has launched tokenized deposits backed by deposit insurance, opening up a new avenue in the stablecoin race.

BTC ETF flows have improved over the past five days, but the price remains under pressure.

Yesterday, I dug up a stock account that had been sitting around for N years and found 30,000 bucks in it that I’d completely forgotten about.

Couldn’t be bothered to withdraw it, so I bought two stocks with my eyes closed—and got a reality check today!

Tom Lee says the market is in sell-off mode, with tech and semiconductors under heavy pressure. They’ve already hit support.

I’ve decided to listen to Tom Lee, enjoy some hot dry noodles with an extra egg, and wait for him to get me back to break-even next week!

I suddenly realized that the four security incidents that happened in quick succession this month have covered the entire stack in terms of attack surface distribution—

Ledger / CryptoBilis: physical supply chain
XRP: vulnerability in the protocol’s underlying payment code (discovered by AI)
Cysic bridge: cross-chain bridge verification and minting authorization
Qubic: private key generation mechanism

We’ve always pursued trustlessness, but in reality, many trust relationships haven’t disappeared—they’ve simply shifted to places users are less likely to notice.

And the emergence of AI will further amplify this issue. Even old protocols that have been running for years without any major security incidents may gradually face scrutiny.

It feels like it’s only a matter of time before Crypto’s security model undergoes a major shift.

Looking at it this way, maybe there isn’t even a truly secure “mainstream coin”—except
$BTC ?

Why has Tencent fallen so much? It's below 400 now!

Should I buy some?

😂 Machi Big Brother has lost everything on Papertrade too—off to a bad start and underwater the whole time.

Curious, I ran the numbers. Using Machi’s Hyperliquid main wallet performance over the past six months as a baseline, and applying a reverse-mirror strategy—go short when he goes long, close when he closes, with the same notional position size:

My return would have been about +14.5%, assuming the same leverage and an ideal scenario with no liquidations.

By comparison, if you took equal-sized opposite positions to the famously bearish signal James Wynn, your return could reach +29.5%, with a 67% win rate.

It suddenly struck me: the four security incidents that happened in quick succession this month have already covered the entire stack in terms of attack surface—

Ledger / CryptoBilis: physical supply chain
XRP: vulnerability in the protocol’s underlying payment code (discovered by AI)
Cysic bridge: cross-chain bridge validation and minting authorization
Qubic: private key generation mechanism

We’ve always pursued trustlessness, but many trust relationships in the real world haven’t disappeared—they’ve simply shifted to places users are less likely to notice.

And the emergence of AI will amplify this problem even further. Old protocols that have been running for years without any major security incidents may gradually come under scrutiny.

It feels like it’s only a matter of time before crypto’s security paradigm undergoes a major shift.

Looking at it this way, maybe there isn’t even a truly secure “major coin”—except $BTC ?

$BTC 🚀

What makes Grokbot so useful is how seamlessly it integrates with X. Besides gathering information from X, you can let it manage your DMs.

It can help you negotiate business deals, and, based on your preferences and needs, accept or decline things that are completely unsuitable for you.

It's also highly sensitive to risk. It won't open any files sent by the other person without verifying the situation and getting my permission.

Lately, it's been managing my X DMs really well. Every day, it sends me a scheduled report telling me who I've talked to, what might benefit me, what it recommends I do next, and what isn't right for me and what risks it poses. It explains why, then leaves the final decision up to me.

I think that if this kind of system keeps developing, it will be hard for people to live without agents like this.

Today’s focus:

1️⃣ BlackRock has filed for a new Bitcoin-related fund that aims to offer some downside protection, while limiting upside participation and explicitly warning that the protection is not guaranteed.

2️⃣ Mesh has also announced a partnership with Visa, with plans to let people use crypto asset balances in their wallets for everyday payments.

I spotted this master trader’s positions on Binance right away!

Another great thing about this update is that AI can monitor the market based on your portfolio, and you can review your profit and loss alongside related events.

The market brief Yaya mentioned also supports audio and updates every 4 hours. Sometimes I’m away for a few hours, and when I get back, I can listen to it all at once to catch up on the market.

Inflation erodes the value of cash, while a bad investment can wipe out your principal.

What investing really needs to solve is how a person can gradually free themselves from total dependence on income from work.

When you rely solely on income from work, your wealth-building is constrained by time and energy. Only when you begin to own shares in excellent businesses do you get the chance to benefit from other people’s work, technological progress, and greater productivity.

Ultimately, each of us can create only so much wealth through our own efforts. Capital, however, can enable ordinary people to take part in creating value on a scale far beyond their individual abilities.

That’s why investment choices matter. The past few years have taught many people this lesson through real estate and altcoins.

Assets truly worth holding for the long term aren’t simply those whose prices can rise, but those capable of consistently increasing profits and cash flow.

Two important points revealed by Williams:

1️⃣ There may be only one rate hike left in 2026.

The Fed’s current policy rate is 3.75%–4.00%. Williams thinks another hike may be needed this year, but he hasn’t committed to one.

2️⃣ No more rate hikes in 2027.

He believes inflationary pressures from factors such as tariffs and energy prices are likely to ease, and that the U.S. economy isn’t broadly overheating.

It feels like the Fed may be nearing the end of this rate-hiking cycle. But when it comes to crypto, these are the three things I’m focused on:

① The U.S. 10-year real yield
If it keeps falling, that’s generally more favorable for BTC and ETH.

② BTC and ETH ETF flows
If they return to net inflows for several days in a row, it would signal improving institutional demand.

③ The ETH/BTC exchange rate
If BTC remains stable while ETH/BTC starts to recover steadily, that could signal a return of risk appetite to the market.
I’d be more cautious with some highly volatile assets, especially avoiding adding leverage prematurely just because the rate-hiking cycle is supposedly over.

As Etherfi has also officially announced the separation of its restaking business, the LRT track is pretty much coming to an end as well—

As of September 30, the total TVL in the entire liquid restaking market is about $1.45 billion, while the protocol revenue generated across the whole track in one week is only around $100,000.

Converted to annualized figures, the ratio of annual revenue to TVL is about 0.36%. After deducting operating costs, there’s basically nothing left.

Looking back to 2024: starting with Manta at the beginning of the year, then Eigenlayer, Etherfi, Kelp...

Each <$ETH > seamlessly picked up where the last left off, carrying all the way to the end of the year;

The token price doubled, and the number of tokens doubled too—truly the kind of good days that are gone forever!

OpenAI’s Dot is here: directly competing with Meta’s Muse!

I’ve already tried it, and it’s basically like an OpenAI personal agent installed inside OpenAI—a little dragon-like helper that can automatically think through and help you complete and refine a lot of things.

The official description is: “Dot is an intelligent agent with outstanding capabilities that’s online 24/7. It understands what you care about and always gets to work for you—taking important tasks off your desk.”

It has its own computer it can control. Of course, if you trust it, you can also hand over control of your computer to it.

The difference from regular ChatGPT is that Dot can keep pushing a task forward across conversations, rather than starting over from scratch every time.

Dot is powered by GPT-6 Astra, connects to 4,000+ apps via plugins, and—after you authorize it—can also use your computer. From the feedback, it can learn your preferences, judgment criteria, and working style. It can push multiple projects at the same time, and also perform read-only proactive research in the background. At key moments, it will proactively report, ask questions, or request your approval.

Official scenarios include: monitoring customer feedback and submitting a PR with tests; updating release materials after scope changes; re-running analyses after data updates; revising proposals; cutting content and writing posts in your style. One early tester said it found a forgotten invoice, prepared the content, and sent it after confirmation.

This update feels like it’s directly targeting Meta’s Muse, which launched earlier this month, as well as always-on agents like Instinct—each relying on a cloud computer + a browser to do work across apps on their own.

For now, I haven’t given it access to my local computer.

It’s using its own cloud-based computer!

Wealth is the inner calm and peace!

Not the numbers that need to be constantly maintained and monitored on the books and in appearances—that only brings you greater desire and anxiety.

I recommend the 40th issue of《Enough and More》that no one knows about.

When you see that Charles Feeney donated almost all of his fortune, 8 billion, and it went unknown for fourteen years—only to be made public at the last resort—it’s still very震撼!

Now I usually go to bed at about 10:30 every day, fall asleep around 11, and wake up between 6:30 and 7:30 in the morning!

In the past, I always felt like I couldn’t do it, that this routine was too hard. But after more than a month, I realized that some habits really can be changed little by little.

First of all, it’s a shift in mindset.

You have to let yourself calm down, recognize that life is unpredictable, recognize that life is full of huge variables, and accept that there are many uncertainties in everyday life. No matter how much you think about something or how carefully you plan, it may still not happen according to your wishes. Don’t try to control everything—then you won’t have so much anxiety. Less anxiety is the first step;

And then it’s adjustments and changes in planning.

For example, your daily exercise amount, the time you spend in the sun, and your daily working hours. For example, after 10 p.m. every night, I won’t do anything that heavily taxes my brain or body, so I don’t get overly excited. Before bedtime, I start doing some stretching exercises for ten minutes to make myself just a little tired. I also eat dinner between 5 and 6, and I don’t eat anything in between. These are the kinds of plans I think are really important and that have helped me.

These are all small arrangements, but they’re quite effective.

At the same time, what these plans give me is a rhythm for living—not control over life.

Don’t hope to control your life. That in itself is an illusion. If you set certain plans but don’t complete them and then you fall back into anxiety, that’s entering another kind of “fixation.”

We can’t plan the future, and we can’t know it either. Every day, the future will keep being broken by things we don’t expect. So I follow these rules. But if one day, a close friend really suddenly visits, or last Wednesday, I went out with a few friends who play guitar and sang along for quite a while—I also never deliberately try to control anything or force myself to be asleep at 10.

I follow the rules I set, and I also allow life to occasionally throw them off. If I stay up late for a day, it’s enough to get back to the usual rhythm the next day. There’s no need to be hard on myself.

Be happy in the moment. When it’s time to sleep, sleep. When it’s time to eat, eat. When it’s time to walk, walk. When it’s time to do something, do it.

Life seems to be simple after all.

After you see the big picture clearly, you should have more patience.

Because a truly major trend is worth understanding over the course of a few years—you don’t need to use a single heavy bet today to prove your belief.

The core of Web3’s second half comes down to this: who controls the hard-to-replace link.

That link could be the user entry point, liquidity, or it could be asset issuance credentials, legal rights arrangements, settlement capabilities, or secure infrastructure.

altcoin season 👀

Altcoin season = Altcoin selection season!

It’s not an altcoin season for all altcoins

It’s only for a small group of altcoins.

This time $BTC my actions and advice:

I define the current market condition as:

After a 82.8K breakout, the first effective pullback confirmation + clear improvement in liquidity, but macro interest rates are still in a red high-pressure zone.

Reasons:

1️⃣ The breakout really happened. BTC not only touched 82K—it surged above 86K, then fell back to 83–84K.

2️⃣ The ETF provides very strong confirmation. Over the last 5 complete trading days, net inflows are about $2.68 billion, and inflows have been positive every single day.

3️⃣ Derivatives haven’t gone crazy. Funding is still low, and OI hasn’t continued to grow explosively—instead, leverage has been pulled back for a round from the 9/21 peak.

This is exactly the structure I mentioned earlier: breakout → pullback → ETF confirmation → leverage not overheating.

I bought with 1% of the dip-buying funds, and my DCA is still ongoing as well. For amounts below 100k, personally I’m still sticking with DCA.