BITWU

Is Bitcoin about to be broken by quantum attacks soon?

Google's report today has caused quite a stir, but personally, I feel it has been emotionally interpreted.

Google is not saying "tomorrow quantum machines will break all cryptocurrencies," but rather that based on their latest resource estimates, the day when they can threaten the existing public key cryptography system may be closer than many previously thought, so the entire industry should now migrate to quantum-resistant cryptography.

I think this is indeed a question worth deep consideration and a core issue that the Bitcoin community should focus on.

Currently, Bitcoin's slow upgrades are both an advantage and a disadvantage, but after the introduction of soft forks, quantum signatures (such as lattice-based Dilithium, hash-based XMSS, and other NIST standards) are technically completely feasible.

The community has already been discussing similar BIPs, so there is actually time to complete these preventive measures.

Google's report also states that the remaining time is still greater than the time required for migration, it's just that the window is getting narrower.

Additionally, regarding Project Eleven, such companies certainly hope everyone panics now because what they are selling is post-quantum wallet/protocol solutions.

JUST IN: Data shows that Bitcoin has fallen below the bottom of the rainbow chart's fire sale area and is being extremely undervalued!

In every previous cycle, this position corresponds not to an ordinary correction, but to extreme pessimism, large-scale turnover of chips, and subsequently a period of structural recovery:

In 2018, the core issue was the systemic clearing after the ICO bubble burst, with many projects losing their financing capabilities, exchanges facing liquidity exhaustion, and almost no capacity for buyers in the market.

The round in 2022 was marked by the collapse of the credit system, with Luna, 3AC, and FTX simultaneously facing massive liquidation both on-chain and off-chain, resulting in passive and continuous selling pressure.

But this time feels a bit subtle!

The price has entered the undervalued zone, but the market has not exhibited that familiar, typical panic-driven clearing.

👉 No explosions like Luna's level, nor the credit collapse like FTX;

👉 On-chain, there has been no extremely clear and concentrated capitulation selling, with miners and long-term holders remaining relatively stable.

This is interesting! It feels more like funds are waiting and chips are being reallocated.

Who cares, we've already reached this range, why hesitate?! Even from a historical perspective, this position has a higher probability of being a good entry window in long-cycle models.

I will place 5 dual-currency low-buy orders and continue to Buy the dip! $BTC

Iran says there's no negotiation, Trump says he wants a ceasefire, both sides are talking past each other, it's very strange!

Look at Trump's remarks over the past ten days——

On March 21, he proposed that Iran must open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or else he would attack Iran's power plants and energy facilities;

On the 23rd, he backtracked and said he would postpone the air strikes by five days;

On the 26th, he announced a 10-day postponement to April 6 as the final deadline;

On the 29th, he again stated that he wanted to seize Iranian oil and did not rule out occupying Khark Island.

April 6 has now become a critical juncture, with three possibilities:

1) Trump is stalling for time, publicly calling for a ceasefire while secretly mobilizing troops, preparing for an assault on April 6 to catch them off guard.

2) The Gulf War lasted 42 days, and if the Iran War ends on April 6, it will have lasted 38 days. With oil prices so high, it’s hard to keep fighting, and Trump really wants negotiations.

3) Drawing K-lines.

# 3.30 Deep Dive | Golden Opportunities in Extreme Panic: Why Now Might Be a Good Time to Position?

Today, the market sent a contradictory signal: **Fear and Greed Index dropped to 8 (Extreme Fear), but BTC held steady at 67k, and ETH rebounded strongly by 3%.**

What does this combination of "price increase + emotional collapse" often signify?

## 📊 Key Data

**Market Sentiment:**
- Fear and Greed Index: 8 (Extreme Fear)
- BTC ETF saw an outflow of $290 million in a single day
- Market experienced a brief collapse followed by a V-shaped rebound

**Valuation Indicators:**
- MVRV: 1.21 (Undervalued Area)
- AHR999: 0.34 (Bottom Buying Range)
- Dollar-Cost Averaging Ratio: 2.0 (Significant Accumulation Area)

**Price Performance:**
- BTC: $67,580 (+1.26%)
- ETH: $2,061 (+2.99%)
- BNB: $618 (+0.97%)

## 🎯 8 Major Events

**1. Morgan Stanley BTC ETF Approved**
The New York Stock Exchange approved Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF, further pushing traditional finance to embrace cryptocurrency.

**2. Largest Ethereum Foundation Staking in History**
A one-time staking of $46.2 million ETH set a historical record, showing long-term confidence in Ethereum.

**3. Geopolitical Risks Escalate**
U.S. Special Forces arrived in the Middle East, Trump considers actions against Iran, and geopolitical tensions rise.

**4. Market V-shaped Rebound**
BTC quickly rebounded after breaking below 65k, and ETH broke below 1940, stopping the decline after liquidating large holders like Machi.

**5. Security Alert: GlassWorm Supply Chain Attack**
A malicious Chrome extension disguised as "Google Docs Offline" threatens hardware wallets, so remain vigilant.

**6. ETF Outflows Intensify**
Risk aversion led to a $290 million outflow from BTC ETF in a single day, increasing short-term pressure.

**7. Strategy Continues to Buy**
Acquired 45,000 BTC in the past 30 days, accounting for 76% of institutional purchases, with demand highly concentrated.

**8. $643 Million Unlocking in the Next 7 Days**
Large unlocks of HYPE, SUI, etc., are approaching, requiring caution against selling pressure risks.

## 💡 My Judgment

**Three Contradictory Signals:**
1. Moderate Price Increase vs. Extremely Low Fear Index
2. ETF Outflows vs. Continued Institutional Buying
3. Geopolitical Risks Escalating vs. Rapid Market Rebound

**What Does This Mean?**

The market is in the "panic washout" stage. Retail investors panic and exit, while institutions take the opportunity to accumulate.

**Valuation Aspects:**
- MVRV 1.21 (Historically <1.5 is a bottom area)
- AHR999 0.34 (<0.45 is the golden dollar-cost averaging area)
- Fear and Greed Index 8 (Historically <20 is often a buying window)

**Three indicators entering the bottom area simultaneously is a rare combination.**

## 🎯 Operational Suggestions

**Short-term (1-2 weeks):**
- Cautiously optimistic, gradually building positions
- Stop-loss levels: BTC $66,000 / ETH $2,000
- Position limit: No more than 60%

**Medium-term (1-3 months):**
- If support breaks, increase dollar-cost averaging efforts
- Target position: 70-80%
- Focus on: ETF fund flows, geopolitical developments

**Risk Warning:**
- Geopolitical conflicts may escalate further
- $643 million unlocking in the next 7 days
- Continued ETF outflows require vigilance

**Core Logic:**
Extreme Fear + Undervaluation + Institutional Buying = Medium-term Opportunity > Short-term Volatility

**Remember:**
Market positions during panic and exits during greed. When everyone is in panic, it is often the best buying opportunity.

---

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are risky; please make decisions cautiously based on your situation.

#BTC #ETH #Cryptocurrency #MarketAnalysis

📆 The market finds Trump's TACO cycle pattern quite useful and is gradually figuring it out——

1) Thursday / Friday: Easier TACO (easing, talking, cooling down)

2) Sunday / Monday: Reasserting toughness (not wanting the market to win too much)

3) $90-100 oil price + 4.5% ten-year U.S. Treasury yield = TACO critical point

Have you learned it well?

Two fun facts about WLFI worldlibertyfi USD1:

1️⃣ The supply of USD1 has surged dramatically: from $3.3 billion at the end of January to $4.4 billion now, an increase of $1.1 billion.

2️⃣ Surprisingly, the specific growth of USD1 is not happening on BSC but on Solana:

Most of the $1.1 billion growth occurred on SOL: from $160 million to about $855 million, an increase of nearly $720 million.

Other parts come from BSC and ETH chains.

So it feels a bit different from what we expected. I previously thought the growth would all happen on the BSC chain, but it seems the overall strategy is a combination of Solana DeFi integration + CEX incentives + project treasury subsidies.

Among them, Solana's low cost and high TPS have truly made USD1 a practical asset for trading/borrowing, rather than just remaining at the "bridge" level on ETH/BSC.

Used @SurfAI to create a $BTC bottom and top dashboard, the visualization effect is excellent, and it can be viewed as a daily morning report!

It's better to share joy than to enjoy alone, so let's share it with everyone to use together:

👉 btc-bottom-dashboard.surf.computer

I had it help me classify 15 indicator signals into 5 dimensions, and every day it provides a comprehensive score based on these dimensions, giving an interpretation of the day's market and operational strategy suggestions;

When conflicting signals appear across different dimensions, there will be a special divergence reminder.

If anyone has good optimization suggestions, feel free to post them in the comments!

【Today's Interpretation】

The market has experienced a certain degree of pullback, with 9 indicators starting to issue buy signals. However, the capital flow dimension still faces pressure, and overall it has not reached an extreme panic level, so it is recommended to start tentative positions.

🚨A not-so-good signal: The mini death cross in the US stock market has appeared, and US Treasury yields are approaching 4.4%——

The technicals have deteriorated, volatility is rising, and market positions are overly concentrated in tech stocks and high-volatility assets.

If critical price levels are breached, sell-offs triggered by capital flows could be very severe.

After the death cross appeared in March 2022, the maximum drawdown was over 60% for $BTC . The real drivers during that round were interest rate hikes and liquidity contraction, and the death cross was just a confirmation signal.

This time there's a somewhat similar vibe:

The Nasdaq has already shown strong sell + a suspected death cross, and BTC has also given a nearly 10% pullback in the short term.

Everything seems to be heading towards a critical juncture.

The market is in urgent need of a directional macro turning point: either a ceasefire or interest rate cuts. Otherwise, the tension of this high interest rate + high position combination is difficult to alleviate naturally.

How to say, has the time for Trump TACO not yet arrived?

From the end of last year until now:

We have been continuously declining for half a year, but after the last time Bitcoin fell for six months, it welcomed five consecutive months of growth 📈

$BTC

Regarding health, remember the following points:

Recently, everyone has been discussing health a lot, as well as which supplements to take. In fact, for the past two years, health has been my main research topic.

Many people complicate this matter; taking more supplements is not necessarily better.

I feel that remembering a few key points is enough:

1️⃣ Sudden death acceleration combination:

Long-term stress + staying up late + alcohol + emotional fluctuations + lack of exercise

2️⃣ Recovery ability = sleep quality, not sleep duration. It’s best to use some monitoring tools, such as Oura or Whoop or Apple Watch, which I have recommended before.

3️⃣ After turning 40, men should definitely check three things: cardiovascular health, gastrointestinal examination, and blood sugar. An annual physical examination is necessary and doesn’t take much time or money.

4️⃣ Remember, all chronic diseases essentially stem from five sources:
Eating too much, not moving enough, sleeping late, high stress, long-term inflammation.

5️⃣ What you may not know is that your body is actually sending signals:

Pay attention to whether your resting heart rate is getting higher.
Pay attention to whether your sleep is getting shallower.
Pay attention to whether you are getting tired more easily.
Pay attention to whether your belly is getting bigger.
Pay attention to whether your mood is getting worse.

These are not signs of aging; they are signs that problems are starting to arise.

6️⃣ The three most cost-effective health habits are:

Walking
Getting sunlight
Going to bed early

Of course, these are my personal practices, which I have adhered to for the past two years and have proven effective.

7️⃣ If you can only supplement the most basic items:
Personally, I only supplement: fish oil + vitamin D3 + magnesium.
(For men, coenzyme Q10 can be added.)
If staying up late or having to drink alcohol, use some liver protection tablets and vitamin B complex.

8️⃣ Remember, family: the real difference in lifespan is not medical care, but lifestyle.

⚡ $BTC's another positive news丨MSBT is coming, let's update the key signals——

Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF ($MSBT) has officially received the listing announcement from the New York Stock Exchange, indicating that it will be available for trading soon.

If BlackRock opened the door for institutional investors, Morgan Stanley has truly paved the way for wealth management channels!

Let's take a look at the data:

Morgan Stanley's wealth management scale is approximately $8 trillion, and their Bitcoin allocation advice for clients is 0% - 4%.

Even taking a very conservative midpoint:

👉 2% allocation = $160 billion potential funding space

This scale is about 3 times that of the current IBIT.

The 0.24% MSBT fee rate + $5 billion 6-month commission-free policy is also quite enticing, expected to capture 10-15% of the market share.

The institutionalization process continues to accelerate!

⚡️Just discovered that Spark Savings quietly launched an independent rating feature for CredoraNetwork, which is a great thing!

Looking at the parameters, it achieves automatic risk monitoring and transparent disclosure by evaluating the quality of underlying collateral, conservative risk parameters, and liquidity depth through third-party assessments.

Each Vault now has a Risk Assessment label, allowing users to see both APY and risk level when depositing.

Spark @sparkdotfi, as a pioneer, has begun to translate the rating feature into quantitative growth:

For example, mainstream stablecoin vaults generally receive ratings of A- or higher, leading to over $200 million in new deposits in the past 5 days.

It seems that everyone is quite sincere; after risk transparency, conservative funds are clearly more willing to deposit money, resulting in faster TVL growth and higher capital retention rates.

Especially after the USR de-pegging event, the advantages of risk isolation have become even more apparent.

This rating system feels like it could be developed into a universal pre-screening standard layer, which, if it can cover several other major lending protocols, could drive DeFi towards a risk-prioritized model, making it even more significant!

🔥 Real-time Market & Hotspot Tracking | Beijing Time 18:00

The market enters the American midday, a key window for market momentum!

📈 Market Overview:
• BTC maintains a volatile pattern, with bulls and bears battling in the $85,000-$87,000 range
• ETH is relatively strong, with continued recovery in ecological activity
• The altcoin sector shows clear differentiation, with projects that have narrative catalysts favored by funds

🌐 Today's Highlights:
• The AI + Crypto fusion narrative continues to ferment, with related tokens remaining popular
• New developments in the Layer2 ecosystem, on-chain activity data reaching recent highs
• Stablecoin market cap hits new highs, with incremental funds entering the market

⚡ Trading Tips:
• Before significant volume expansion, control positions to avoid chasing highs
• Pay attention to the evening's US macro data release, which may bring directional breakthroughs
• Maintain cash positions, waiting for better entry points

Which sector are you focusing on today? Let's chat in the comments 👇

#Crypto #BTC #ETH #Cryptocurrency #Binance #DeFi

📌 According to CME FedWatch data, traders have abandoned the rate cut in April, with a probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged at 92.8%.

Besides the United States, several other major economies' central banks are also preparing to gradually cut interest rates, and they have now started to adopt a more hawkish stance —

📍 The Bank of England, unanimously agreed to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, with the market pricing in two rate hikes this year, each by 25 basis points.
📍 Europe is more sensitive to energy price shocks, with the market betting on at least one rate hike this year.
📍 The Reserve Bank of Australia has already increased rates, with the market betting on an additional 65 basis points hike this year.
📍 South Korea and India, the market is betting on four rate hikes over the next two years.

A war has completely overturned global monetary policy, with the pricing of all assets oscillating between the starkly opposite scenarios of 'stagflation' and 'ceasefire'.

The most dangerous operation in this environment is to bet on a one-sided direction;

Do not indulge in some reckless operations thinking you know better, restraining yourself is the best strategy!

🇺🇸 U.S. Stock Market Opening Observation | Beijing Time 14:00

The U.S. stock market opens today, and the movement of institutional funds is worth paying attention to:

📊 Key Signals:
• NASDAQ futures maintain high volatility before opening, with bullish sentiment in tech stocks
• Recent speeches by Federal Reserve officials are hawkish, and the market's expectation for interest rate cuts has narrowed again
• The correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ is evident, closely tracking the direction of the U.S. stock market

💡 Strategy Reference:
• BTC short-term resistance at $87,000, look for bullish opportunities after stabilization
• Institutions continue to accumulate BTC spot ETFs, with a positive medium to long-term structure
• The altcoin season has not fully started yet, and selections need to be cautious, focusing on leaders

📌 Today's Key Focus: Tech stock earnings reports, changes in U.S. Treasury yields

#Bitcoin #BTC #U.S. Stocks #Cryptocurrency #Binance

🇪🇺 European Morning Session · Macroeconomic Data Interpretation | 10:00 AM Beijing Time

The European session has begun. Several key macroeconomic variables warrant close attention:

📋 Major Macroeconomic Events This Month:

• March 6: US Non-Farm Payrolls Data Released – One of the most important indicators for the entire market

• March 18: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision – Profoundly Impactful on BTC Price Path

• Early March: EU MiCA Regulation Transition Period Officially Ended, Over 100 Institutions Submitted Compliance Applications to Regulatory Authorities

🔑 MiCA Compliance Impact Interpretation: The full implementation of the EU's Crypto Asset Market Regulation means the following for the European crypto market:

✅ Accelerated Standardization: Clear entry barriers for institutions, allowing large asset management companies to allocate assets with confidence

✅ Industry Cleanup: Non-compliant projects will be eliminated, making high-quality assets more attractive to investors

⚠️ Short-Term Disturbances: Some service providers face compliance pressure during the transition period, potentially causing localized volatility

💡 Current Core Macroeconomic Logic:

• Federal Reserve Policy Expectations → Determines the overall level of risky assets

• EU regulation implemented → Provides a legal channel for institutional funds to enter the market

• Macroeconomic + regulatory double benefit, the upward trend in the medium to long term remains unchanged

🎯 Key focus for today's European session:

Will the Eurozone PMI data exceed expectations? Will European institutional fund flows follow suit?

Clear regulation is the first step for institutional entry. Europe's MiCA era is changing the global crypto landscape.

Do you think MiCA is good or bad for the crypto market? Discuss in the comments section 👇
#MiCA#EURegulation#MacroAnalysis#Bitcoin#CryptoMarket#BinanceSquare

🌅 Overnight Summary · Asian Market Preview | Beijing Time 06:00

Last night, the market was overall stable, and the Asian market has started to become active. Here are the core details you need to know:

📊 Overnight Data Overview:
• #BTC held the key support at $70,000, daily increase +0.75%, structure stable
• #ETH quoted around $2,163, recent rebound +4.77%, but against BTC exchange rate slightly down -0.51%
• #SOL and major altcoins under pressure, overall following BTC's rhythm

🌏 Asian Market Signals:
• Korean Won trading pair (KRW) up +0.77%
• Philippine Peso trading pair (PHP) up +0.85%
• Strong demand in the Asian region—historical data shows that for the past 3 years, 73% of the major upward trends in BTC were led by the Asian market

🔍 Notable Divergence Signals:
ETH and BTC correlation showing signs of loosening (23rd time in 18 months). Historical pattern: whenever this divergence occurs, BTC has averaged outperformed ETH by 8.7% in the following 45 days.
→ Funds may be concentrating defensively towards BTC

📅 Today's Morning Focus:
1. Can BTC maintain above $70K in the Asian market?
2. Is there a chance for ETH to catch up, or will it continue to lag behind BTC?
3. Will institutional funds continue to flow in before the European market opens?

The early bird catches the worm. The Asian market often serves as a barometer for the entire day's trend.

What is your trading strategy today? BTC or ETH? Leave a comment to share 👇

#Bitcoin #Ethereum #AsianMarket #CryptoMarket #OvernightSummary #BinanceSquare

🐋 On-chain Data Depth · Whale Movements | Asia Late Night Report

When retail investors sleep, whales quietly take action. The latest on-chain data reveals:

📊 Core Data:
• The number of addresses holding 100+ BTC has increased by +753 (up 3.9%) over the past 3 months
• Exchange BTC reserves have dropped to the lowest level since 2017 — chips continue to exit
• Large holders with over 100 BTC resumed accumulation mode after a brief distribution in mid-March
• Historical pattern: After the accumulation period led by whales ends, a trend breakout often occurs within 1–3 months

⚠️ Caution Signals:
• An early holder whale has sold 3,500 BTC (average price $94,786) since November 2024
• Large transfers to exchanges occurred on March 18–20, with derivative funding rates briefly weakening
• Medium whales (holding 10–10,000 BTC) are currently neutral, waiting for directional choice

💡 Interpretation Framework:
Large whales are accumulating → Exchange reserves are decreasing → Circulating supply is tightening
When all three conditions hold, it usually means price elasticity is building up.

However, the existence of short-term profit-taking also reminds us: Upward movements are never smooth sailing. Volatility is a gift, not a risk.

Are you tracking on-chain data to assist your trading decisions? Share your methods 👇

#OnChainData #WhaleMovements #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoAnalysis #BinanceSquare

Line Master Trump:

At 7:04 AM Eastern Time today, President Trump stated, "The United States and Iran have had productive discussions" to end the Iran war.

At 7:10 AM Eastern Time, the S&P 500 index soared 240 points, increasing its market value by $2 trillion.

27 minutes later, Iran completely denied all of President Trump's statements and said there had been "no contact" with the United States.

At 8:00 AM Eastern Time, the S&P 500 index dropped 120 points, evaporating $1 trillion in market value.

In just 56 minutes, the S&P 500 index's market value fluctuated by $3 trillion.