BITWU

The Humanity Protocol investigation report reveals the project's vibe, which I can sum up in four words:

Amateur hour!

This whole situation is way off the charts!

Firstly, after getting hacked, they took a solid 12 hours to address the malicious token inflation issue, watching the price crash to zero.

Secondly, the source of the breach was a colleague's compromised computer, with not just the hot wallet but multiple owner keys, totaling seven private key backups all stored on the same machine.

This isn't just an issue of one employee's poor security awareness; it's a complete failure in the internal permission management of the entire protocol, which is beyond ridiculous!

Ridiculous to the point of keeping private key backups on a computer during the mainnet launch,
Ridiculous to allow old permissions, a year post-launch, to still serve as a single point of failure for the entire project.

What was the multi-signature security even for?

It's supposed to ensure that an attacker has to breach different individuals, different devices, and different environments simultaneously.

The most ironic part is that the Humanity Protocol is supposed to focus on identity verification, privacy proof, anti-witch hunts, and Proof of Humanity. What’s the difference between this and running around naked?

A lot of folks have been asking me about my take on SPCXx;

I've had a deep dive chat with GPT about getting in on the Space X IPO,

and sticking to the principle of the first stock of humanity's destiny, I'm keen to get in!

Of course, this isn't any investment advice, since I'm thinking like a retail trader, mainly to flex later with my grandkids, saying I took part in the first great IPO in human history.

Here are some data points and comparisons to help everyone think through their decisions:

1️⃣ I might throw down 100-200K to test the waters;

Currently, the market has over 170 price predictions, significantly above the original cost of 135, but I feel there's a bit of FOMO in the air;

2️⃣ It's attractive but definitely not cheap:

SpaceX's fixed price is $135/share, aiming to raise $75B, with a valuation around $1.75T; Reuters also mentioned it's projected to have revenues of about $18.67B in 2025, with a net loss of $4.94B, giving it a valuation of over 90 times revenue, which is pretty steep.

Moreover, due to the hot market demand, there's about $150B in demand for the $75B financing, and SpaceX is considering giving retail investors up to about 30% allocation, which indicates that there could be some short-term accumulation and emotional premium, but also highlights that this is a crowded trade.

3️⃣ It’s not a real stock, so no dividends;

Currently, whether through Kraken or Bybit, what you get is SPCXx tokenized equity, not the original stock, so no dividends, and the entry price includes a 5% spread.

If the final IPO price is $135, my actual cost would be around $141.75;

The chart below corresponds to the price, along with the cost and profit loss I’d incur.

Considering my style, I probably won’t go too deep; 100-200K is enough to play around a bit.

CPI drops tonight at 20:30, expected to hit the first "40" in three years, inflation expectations are about to get adjusted again.

The market's outlook on the Fed has completely flipped —

From betting at the start of the year that there would be over 2.5 rate cuts this year (25 basis points each), it's now shifted to rate cuts being pushed back to 2027, with even a potential rate hike by the end of the year. Institutional divergence is at its highest in recent years.

With just a week left until the Fed's June FOMC meeting, it’s feeling pretty shaky out there!

$USD1 in the Binance Wallet's DeFi Season is worth a look:

If you have SUD1, check out this event on Binance Wallet, the returns are solid, offering a 7.12% + 6.37% = 13% annualized;

How to participate: Binance App → Wallet → DeFi. Right now, Lorenzo & Lista are shining bright → You can join by subscribing with ≥100USD1;

The first week focuses mainly on the USD1 investment pool, including Lorenzo, Sky, Spark, Lista, Venus, and other related funds.

The returns are a bit higher because there's a total of about $400,000 in BANK incentives, lasting for 20 days. This is in addition to the activity reward APR, and some pools themselves also offer around 6% native staking rewards.

I just put some of my main USD1 into this for the yield; there are still 17 days left on the subsidy. If you have SUD1, keep an eye on this;

The higher returns are tempting, so let's get in while we can.

I’m calling it:

In the next 15 years, the stablecoin infrastructure sector is likely to give birth to a TOP 10 company in the U.S. stock market.

It could be Coinbase, it could be Circle, or it could be some yet-to-be-seen unknown player—who knows!

Looking back at the past century of the U.S. stock market, there's a fascinating trend: industry dominance seems to shift roughly every 15-20 years—

📍
1926-1970s: Oil, telecom, and automotive ruled the roost, with no tech companies in the TOP 10, just industrial giants. The entire S&P 500 was worth about $2.7 trillion.

📍
1996: Tech makes its first move; the PC revolution kicks off, with Intel and Microsoft breaking into the top five.

📍
2006: Peak of finance + energy.

📍
2010: The tech era officially begins, with the smartphone boom; big players like Apple, Google, Amazon, and Meta start to dominate the market.

📍
2018: Tech fully takes over, with Apple becoming the first trillion-dollar company in history.

📍
2025: AI starts to rise; the landscape has now fully transformed into tech stocks + AI-related businesses, with multiple AI-related companies valued at trillions waiting to go public.

So here’s the question:

If there’s going to be another massive transfer of industry power, where will it happen?

I think the answer might just lie in stablecoins—check out these stats:

1) By 2025, stablecoin trading volume is projected to hit $33 trillion, surpassing the combined totals of Visa and PayPal;

2) Tether has about 200 employees and is set to generate $13 billion in profits by 2025, outpacing Goldman Sachs;

3) USDC's circulation will reach $75.3 billion, marking a year-over-year growth of about 72%;

4) 60% of the top 25 banks in the U.S. have started to explore crypto business;

5) Wall Street predicts that by 2030, the stablecoin market will reach at least $2 trillion.

Stablecoins hold the keys to the next-gen global currency network and have a real shot at breaking into the TOP 10 of the U.S. stock market.

Market's looking grim, bear season drags on,
Candlesticks trending down, and the vibe's gone wrong.

Once chasing pumps got my heart racing,
Now I'm just HODLing, like a monk meditating.

Once for the first ding, greed's gotta bounce;
Twice for the second, my capital's in a flounce;
Three times, no more dreams, gotta face the facts;
Four times, it's survival mode, no time for slack.

Bull markets bring profits,
Bear markets bring wisdom;

Cash locked in the game, navigating the storm,
While I'm sipping tea, keeping my mind warm.

This round of $HYPE has been on a relentless bullish run, and the biggest victim has to be the struggling trader Loracle!

Let's take a look at this series of painful moves——

May 21-22: As prices soared, Loracle went short. He piled on 5x shorts totaling $109.5M, racking up a floating loss of over $26.5M. Then he deposited 616,670 $HYPE into Hyperliquid and started selling.

May 29: He unlocked another 892,513 $HYPE/$55.9M, while still holding 1.75M $HYPE/$108.5M in shorts, with a floating loss of $28.77M.

May 30-31: Started to capitulate, reducing his short position slightly to 1.73M $HYPE, with a floating loss of about $35M, and still holding roughly 892K in spot.

June 1: After HYPE broke $72, Loracle closed over 50% of his shorts and still holds 843,232 $HYPE/$60.7M in shorts, with a floating loss exceeding $22M.

For a 5x short, this one-sided rally quickly wiped out the margin, forcing the trader to surrender.

This is basically a publicly executed level of loss.

Bitwise's data is pretty interesting: the valuation gap between Bitcoin and US tech stocks has hit an all-time high.

$BTC's current MVRV is only 1.42, which is just above historical levels 36% of the time;

On the flip side, the NASDAQ 100’s P/B ratio has nearly exceeded historical levels 99% of the time.

Of course, MVRV and P/B are not the same valuation metrics; one looks at on-chain cost and market cap, while the other examines stock price and book value. You can't just compare them directly without context. But this gap really highlights the issue:

Tech stocks are currently priced with a massive amount of AI, interest rate cuts, profit expansion, and long-term growth expectations baked in, while on the Bitcoin side, even though ETFs have opened institutional channels, the on-chain valuation hasn't entered an extreme euphoria zone yet.

Bitwise's take is that in the second half of the year, US tech stocks might see an adjustment before Bitcoin spot ETFs do, which will then trickle down to the Crypto market; thus, there's still room for BTC to catch up in the latter half of the year.

So, yesterday I was chatting with a few friends about a topic:

In the market, the ultimate reward goes not to those who can express their judgments best, but to those who can consistently get close to the truth.

The closer you are to the real world, the more you understand and respect the rules. You'll realize that the world doesn't revolve around your emotions, positions, and desires. The market has its own rules, human nature has its own inertia, cycles have their rhythms, and assets have their structures.

By understanding the laws of how the world operates, you'll naturally stumble less and find opportunities more easily. It’s not because you’re smarter; it’s because you’re not constantly going against reality.

But the scariest thing is that we humans often unconsciously act using opinions instead of judgments. This process seems to save mental effort, as our brains tend to follow the simplest path to conserve energy.

However, our opinions are mixed with emotions, biases, and experiences. Sometimes you think you're making decisions, but in reality, you’re just following your brain's map without really thinking it through.

That’s why many people can’t escape their fate. Just like Zhuge Liang knew the trends before even stepping out of his cottage; he understood these people's characters perfectly. Yuan Shao's fate was sealed, and Guan Yu let Cao Cao go at Huarong Path. These aren’t just bets; it’s because Zhuge Liang knew how they would decide. That’s their destiny.

Judgment and decision-making definitely require a system and predictive logic. If you have that, you're like Zhuge Liang.

So the question is, how do we continuously shorten the gap between judgment and reality in an uncertain world?

This might just be the most crucial homework we need to keep doing,

and AI is the best tool for assisting with judgment in this era.

Here’s how I've been doing it: it used to be tough to manage this, but now I can set up a dedicated predictive system and judgment logic document with GPT. Whenever anything comes up, I can record and ask questions, letting GPT analyze my mindset and what’s next. It’s like creating a cool-headed judgment ledger for myself.

I suggest you keep a judgment ledger with AI, recording major decisions in the following 8 items:

Over time, you’ll definitely be able to update your old map and gradually get closer to the real world.

📉Wosh has announced his appointment, and the probability of staying put in June skyrocketed from 70% to over 90%. The chances of a rate hike within the year are also climbing—

This stands in stark contrast to the multiple rate cut expectations from earlier this year, leaving the market notably bearish, leading to another dip!

It's pointless to judge whether Wosh is a hawk or a dove at this point. Let’s take a look back at the Fed Chairman Powell:

In 2020, Powell was at zero rates with unlimited QE, dubbed by the market as "the most dovish ever";

In 2022, he aggressively hiked rates, stating that "households and businesses must endure pain," earning him the nickname "Volcker 2.0" in the market.

The same person, in three years, transformed from the Dove King to the Hawk King, showcasing a dynamic evolution.

Considering Trump's selection logic, he definitely wouldn't pick a die-hard hawk,

So I have no trading strategy for the current market; I’m just planning to lay low this month!

The only coin making waves this round, $HYPE is about to surpass $DOGE in market cap —

In a market that’s barely breathing, Hyperliquid's market cap is steadily climbing to $15 billion, just brushing against the total market cap rank of NO.9.

We’re currently in a phase where bulls and bears are pretty divided. The biggest short on HYPE, Loracle, has set a $75 million short position at $64.

Bears are mainly worried about HYPE’s unlocking:

On the 29th of this month, 14 million HYPE will be unlocked, with about 6.6 million going to insiders.

Hope $USD1 for a steady bull market lasting a bit longer:

1️⃣ Launched Bybit savings with early liquidity pool rewards at 20% APR,
2️⃣ Binance keeps the liquidity flowing with USD1 trading pairs for futures,
3️⃣ Today, they announced that you can participate in $SPACEX(PRE) new listings on Matcha.

I’ve been holding since the first batch and participating in the activities; I sell Wlfi as soon as I get it, averaging an annual yield close to 10%.

This is way more comfortable than Web2 finance.

Currently, other exchanges do have some solid yield opportunities, but being a lazy trader, I’m just not motivated to move over.

The Seven Sisters of US stocks Q1 total profit: 1.53 trillion

The total profit of 4042 profitable companies in A-shares for Q1: 1.6 trillion

That's the way it is, no doubt, but the person who made this chart is a bit sneaky!

Because the profits from the top 50 A-share companies are about 1 trillion, adding the remaining 4000 companies just to bulk up the numbers, what's the intention behind that~

🚨Barclays statistics show that since 1951, the average drawdown of the S&P 500 within six months of a new Fed chair's appointment is about 16%.

Crypto and $BTC hit hard here:

👉2014 Yellen took the helm → BTC dropped from 1000 to 170, a staggering 84% plunge

👉2018 Powell stepped in → BTC fell from 17000 to 3200, a 73% drop

👉2022 Powell's reappointment → BTC slid from 48000 to 19000, marking a 61% decline

Three chair changes (including reappointments), three times the market halved, a 100% hit rate.

⚡️Good News: Binance's $USD1 financial activity is back for another round!

This event has been running for almost half a year now, with a total of five phases:

🔹Phase 1 (01-23 → 02-20): $40M equivalent WLFI, APR 15.56%

🔹Phase 2 (02-20 → 03-20): 235M WLFI, APR 13.81%

🔹Phase 3 (03-20 → 04-17): 135M WLFI, APR 8.08%

🔹Phase 4 (04-17 → 05-15): $15M equivalent WLFI, APR 5.79%

🔹Phase 5 (05-15 → 06-12): $13M equivalent WLFI, estimated APR still around 4%~6%

If you held since the first phase, the average annual yield could be close to 10%.

This is way more comfortable than Web2 financial products.

Goldman Sachs' experts are starting to sound the alarm—

With the market pumping like this, it always reminds me of the 90s:

From 1991 to 1998, the Nasdaq 100 index was in a bull run every year, doubling in 1999, only to face the massive crash of the century!

At the 2025 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffett mentioned: in the next five years, there will be some seriously undervalued moments in the US stock market.

Is Berkshire just sitting on its $340 billion, waiting for that moment?

⚡
A signal you gotta keep an eye on —
most altcoins won't outperform $BTC from now on until they fade away.

The price of Bitcoin has been closely tracking the inflow/outflow trends of the US spot ETF.

ETF funds are likely now one of the most important marginal buyers of BTC, with institutional contributions around 70%.

This stands in sharp contrast to the retail bull market of 2021.

It also directly alters the flow of capital:

Institutional involvement may not benefit the entire Crypto space, and the liquidity brought by ETF funds might not spill over and rotate like it used to;

Seeing the war duration chart that Trump posted, it suddenly reminded me of a netizen's brilliant summary——

Congrats to the U.S. for turning the entire Middle East bases into a total write-off at the cost of its global reputation dropping to zero, exposing that their ammo production can only last half a month, revealing that the Patriot missile interception rate is below thirty percent, showing how badly their military logistics are lagging, and of course, the skyrocketing inflation in the U.S.,

successfully turning the navigable Strait of Hormuz into the navigable Strait of Hormuz, and transforming Iranian leadership from Khamenei into Khamenei!
😂

Regarding the dispute between WLFI and Sun, it has officially entered the courtroom brawl stage;

Both parties have taken each other to court:

This is a classic "investor vs project team" upgrade conflict: Sun was the first to sue WLFI for "freezing + extortion", and WLFI countersued Sun for "slander + regulatory violations". WLFI emphasizes that the contract is solid and protects the ecosystem; Sun insists that his rights have been infringed.

I think the upcoming hearings will likely focus on "whether the freezing rights were disclosed in advance" and "whether Sun actually shorted" these two points, with relevant evidence submitted.

So it's clear: whoever has a solid chain of evidence will win the case.

However, currently, the market sentiment on @predictdotfun indicates that Sun's unlock probability is 9%, which clearly shows that people don't really believe Sun can win this dispute.

What does everyone think?