Pai
233 Posts
Pai
我的故事要从2012年比特币显卡矿机说起 交易员｜BTC | 美股｜Ai｜
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TSLA drops 12% in a day
VIX surged 15%, the broader market fell 1%
Semiconductors stayed completely still
SMH was basically flat, while SOXX still rose
The bad news for TSLA didn’t spill over into chips
AMD barely moved, and NVDA outperformed QQQ by almost a full car length
Even a single-stock collapse of this magnitude can’t drag semiconductors
The buyers waiting below are truly solid
That’s where we are as of Thursday
Friday holds
I’m adding to my position
VIX surged 15%, the broader market fell 1%
Semiconductors stayed completely still
SMH was basically flat, while SOXX still rose
The bad news for TSLA didn’t spill over into chips
AMD barely moved, and NVDA outperformed QQQ by almost a full car length
Even a single-stock collapse of this magnitude can’t drag semiconductors
The buyers waiting below are truly solid
That’s where we are as of Thursday
Friday holds
I’m adding to my position
BitMEX is shutting down
11 years ago they invented perpetual contracts
Now BTC at 65K: the perpetual contract trading volume is at an all-time high
OG is dead
Perps grew into their own shape—you don’t need the people who invented it anymore
In 2016, Arthur Hayes took the stage and talked about inverse contracts—no one could understand it
By 2026, every big firm has perps
Nothing much to say
11 years ago they invented perpetual contracts
Now BTC at 65K: the perpetual contract trading volume is at an all-time high
OG is dead
Perps grew into their own shape—you don’t need the people who invented it anymore
In 2016, Arthur Hayes took the stage and talked about inverse contracts—no one could understand it
By 2026, every big firm has perps
Nothing much to say
66K wore down for a week
Up to 67.8K is a wall Down to 62K has support
The market is waiting
Waiting for what? I don’t know either
But if VIX drops below 17, gold will rise 1%
Some people say “it’s fine” with their mouths, but their bodies are being honest
Cut the position to one-third
When you don’t understand, don’t move
Better to stay wrong than to do something wrong
Up to 67.8K is a wall Down to 62K has support
The market is waiting
Waiting for what? I don’t know either
But if VIX drops below 17, gold will rise 1%
Some people say “it’s fine” with their mouths, but their bodies are being honest
Cut the position to one-third
When you don’t understand, don’t move
Better to stay wrong than to do something wrong
After eating, I took a look at the board
GLD rose 1.74%, with gold surging
XLE gained 1.4%
On the same day, NVDA barely moved while SMH was down
The Dow was up 0.5% and the Nasdaq down 0.2%
This isn’t rotation
Someone is making large-scale repositioning
The VIX is only 17, and the market seems calm on the surface
But money is the most honest
I don’t like this kind of price action
GLD rose 1.74%, with gold surging
XLE gained 1.4%
On the same day, NVDA barely moved while SMH was down
The Dow was up 0.5% and the Nasdaq down 0.2%
This isn’t rotation
Someone is making large-scale repositioning
The VIX is only 17, and the market seems calm on the surface
But money is the most honest
I don’t like this kind of price action
AI has escaped the OpenAI sandbox
Now it’s on Hugging Face—anyone can use it
CoinDesk’s headline today
Crypto is where things get dangerous
AI + unlicensed on-chain assets
No need to look for code vulnerabilities
Just look for logical flaws
BTC spent all day grinding at 66K
This message keeps people up more than any bearish candle
Now it’s on Hugging Face—anyone can use it
CoinDesk’s headline today
Crypto is where things get dangerous
AI + unlicensed on-chain assets
No need to look for code vulnerabilities
Just look for logical flaws
BTC spent all day grinding at 66K
This message keeps people up more than any bearish candle
Gold gained two points in a single day
BTC is still stuck
A bit hard to make sense
If gold is rising, it means it’s not some kind of risk event
But BTC just won’t follow
GLD +2% QQQ +1.8%
Everything that should have moved has moved
The 1-hour chart is squeezed down to the point of absurdity
Usually it won’t stay like this for too long
I’m betting something will move this week
I just don’t know which direction
BTC is still stuck
A bit hard to make sense
If gold is rising, it means it’s not some kind of risk event
But BTC just won’t follow
GLD +2% QQQ +1.8%
Everything that should have moved has moved
The 1-hour chart is squeezed down to the point of absurdity
Usually it won’t stay like this for too long
I’m betting something will move this week
I just don’t know which direction
This move in semiconductors—looks like a fake breakout.
At the open, SMH surged to 582, and then SOXX jumped 3.6%.
After that, it slid all the way back to 573.
All the gains were completely given back.
NVDA only rose 0.7%—it’s not the leader leading the pack.
AVGO followed up with about 1%, but it wasn’t strong enough.
This kind of action is probably pushed by passive ETF buying.
Consumption is down, financials aren’t moving, and energy is only up 0.3%.
Other than semiconductors, nobody in the broader market is joining in.
You can’t go far pulling a cart with only one leg.
I’m not chasing this—this move looks like a fake breakout.
At the open, SMH surged to 582, and then SOXX jumped 3.6%.
After that, it slid all the way back to 573.
All the gains were completely given back.
NVDA only rose 0.7%—it’s not the leader leading the pack.
AVGO followed up with about 1%, but it wasn’t strong enough.
This kind of action is probably pushed by passive ETF buying.
Consumption is down, financials aren’t moving, and energy is only up 0.3%.
Other than semiconductors, nobody in the broader market is joining in.
You can’t go far pulling a cart with only one leg.
I’m not chasing this—this move looks like a fake breakout.
Saylor has accumulated $3.2 billion in cash, not adding a penny of BTC
Bought at 57K for 126K, never sold
Now it’s 65K—stop here
The biggest long is just hoarding cash
I won’t follow
Bought at 57K for 126K, never sold
Now it’s 65K—stop here
The biggest long is just hoarding cash
I won’t follow
After dinner, take a quick glance
SOXX +1.6% while NVDA only +1.3%
Semiconductors surged hard on Monday NVDA isn’t the head guy leading
VIX was crushed to 18.2— the market isn’t scared at all
For the past year and a half, it’s always been NVDA leading semiconductors and then others followed
Today SOXX outperformed NVDA by double
If this setup loosens, the money will spread outward from the leader
NVDA is no longer the only engine driving semiconductors
This is the first time I’ve seen it this year
Tomorrow—confirm it. If it’s confirmed, I’ll jump in.
SOXX +1.6% while NVDA only +1.3%
Semiconductors surged hard on Monday NVDA isn’t the head guy leading
VIX was crushed to 18.2— the market isn’t scared at all
For the past year and a half, it’s always been NVDA leading semiconductors and then others followed
Today SOXX outperformed NVDA by double
If this setup loosens, the money will spread outward from the leader
NVDA is no longer the only engine driving semiconductors
This is the first time I’ve seen it this year
Tomorrow—confirm it. If it’s confirmed, I’ll jump in.
The death cross has appeared. Nasdaq is down 1.4%
BTC is only down 0.8%
When EMA50 crossed below EMA200 last week, everyone was waiting for a waterfall.
By today, those who don’t hold positions can’t reach below 63K.
Those who do hold are looking at S&P NDAQ being redder than BTC, and they actually feel more at ease.
The 63K BB middle band has held for three weeks—this week is the turning point.
If it breaks, go look for 60K. If it doesn’t, the death cross is just a joke.
I bet it won’t break.
BTC is only down 0.8%
When EMA50 crossed below EMA200 last week, everyone was waiting for a waterfall.
By today, those who don’t hold positions can’t reach below 63K.
Those who do hold are looking at S&P NDAQ being redder than BTC, and they actually feel more at ease.
The 63K BB middle band has held for three weeks—this week is the turning point.
If it breaks, go look for 60K. If it doesn’t, the death cross is just a joke.
I bet it won’t break.
VIX has exploded by 12%
Tech stocks got hammered hard on Friday
But BTC is still at 64.8K, unmoving
In 2022, the correlation between BTC and QQQ was 0.85
Now it looks more like 0.3
This isn’t a safe-haven thing— the market is re-pricing what kind of asset BTC is
USDT’s countdown: two years
France has shut Polymarket
Regulation is tightening, but the price hasn’t responded
I’m betting BTC will keep ranging at 63–67K this week
Until VIX comes down, there won’t be any big moves
But if this time the decoupling holds through the next wave of risk events,
then it really won’t be a coincidence
Nothing much to say
That’s it
Tech stocks got hammered hard on Friday
But BTC is still at 64.8K, unmoving
In 2022, the correlation between BTC and QQQ was 0.85
Now it looks more like 0.3
This isn’t a safe-haven thing— the market is re-pricing what kind of asset BTC is
USDT’s countdown: two years
France has shut Polymarket
Regulation is tightening, but the price hasn’t responded
I’m betting BTC will keep ranging at 63–67K this week
Until VIX comes down, there won’t be any big moves
But if this time the decoupling holds through the next wave of risk events,
then it really won’t be a coincidence
Nothing much to say
That’s it
France shuts down Polymarket
G7 countries ban prediction markets—sounds like something from 2022.
On the options side, people are betting that by the end of the month $72,000 will get stuck right on the day the Fed meets.
The more the government cracks down, the bigger the casino gets
G7 countries ban prediction markets—sounds like something from 2022.
On the options side, people are betting that by the end of the month $72,000 will get stuck right on the day the Fed meets.
The more the government cracks down, the bigger the casino gets
On Sunday, I quietly checked things for a bit.
On Friday, US stocks dropped 1.4%, and the VIX jumped 12%.
BTC stayed put at 64.7K.
Back then, when US stocks crashed, crypto would collapse right along with it.
Now it’s not following.
This isn’t decoupling.
Someone has been buying all along.
The sell orders are gone.
On Friday, US stocks dropped 1.4%, and the VIX jumped 12%.
BTC stayed put at 64.7K.
Back then, when US stocks crashed, crypto would collapse right along with it.
Now it’s not following.
This isn’t decoupling.
Someone has been buying all along.
The sell orders are gone.
Thread 1/4:
Friday NVDA touched 197 intraday, then closed back at 202
Semiconductors were broadly dumped SMH -2.2%
The brightest spot was XLE +1.1%
Money is moving—just not far
Thread 2/4:
NVDA fell from 238 to 202—more than 15% lost in a little over a month
The earnings didn’t blow up, and the products didn’t have issues
It’s just the market re-pricing: with NVDA at $4.9 trillion, what justifies a doubling
No one can answer that
Thread 3/4:
Money went into energy XLE +1.1%
And into defense—high dividends came back a bit
Russell 2000 didn’t drop much; IWM only -0.5%
Hesitation in the tape—not panic
Thread 4/4:
Next week, holding 195–200 is a healthy pullback
If it can’t hold, the logic is changing—not just a technical retracement
SPY 740 is also on the radar
Is this round of NVDA correction over? What do you think?
Friday NVDA touched 197 intraday, then closed back at 202
Semiconductors were broadly dumped SMH -2.2%
The brightest spot was XLE +1.1%
Money is moving—just not far
Thread 2/4:
NVDA fell from 238 to 202—more than 15% lost in a little over a month
The earnings didn’t blow up, and the products didn’t have issues
It’s just the market re-pricing: with NVDA at $4.9 trillion, what justifies a doubling
No one can answer that
Thread 3/4:
Money went into energy XLE +1.1%
And into defense—high dividends came back a bit
Russell 2000 didn’t drop much; IWM only -0.5%
Hesitation in the tape—not panic
Thread 4/4:
Next week, holding 195–200 is a healthy pullback
If it can’t hold, the logic is changing—not just a technical retracement
SPY 740 is also on the radar
Is this round of NVDA correction over? What do you think?
FNG 25 Extreme Fear
BTC 64K
These two numbers shouldn’t show up together
This week BTC made a V
On Monday it crashed to 62.3K
On Tuesday it pulled back to 65K
On Wednesday it touched 65.6K—didn’t break through
On Thursday and Friday it slid back to 63.8K
The price came back, but fear didn’t
I looked through the history
In March 2023, when SVB collapsed
BTC was 24K, FNG was 25
Now BTC is 2.7 times what it was then
The fear is exactly the same
What is the market afraid of?
The ETF hasn’t stopped
Stablecoins haven’t run away
The big whales haven’t dumped
Fear just won’t retreat
I think there are two things
If 65.6K doesn’t break, it means the bulls’ nerve gets taken out of them
Anxiety from the US stock market is also spreading over
Next week, watch 65.6K
If it passes, the narrative shifts from waiting to dying to confirmation
If it doesn’t, then 63–65 continues to grind
Which side are you watching?
BTC 64K
These two numbers shouldn’t show up together
This week BTC made a V
On Monday it crashed to 62.3K
On Tuesday it pulled back to 65K
On Wednesday it touched 65.6K—didn’t break through
On Thursday and Friday it slid back to 63.8K
The price came back, but fear didn’t
I looked through the history
In March 2023, when SVB collapsed
BTC was 24K, FNG was 25
Now BTC is 2.7 times what it was then
The fear is exactly the same
What is the market afraid of?
The ETF hasn’t stopped
Stablecoins haven’t run away
The big whales haven’t dumped
Fear just won’t retreat
I think there are two things
If 65.6K doesn’t break, it means the bulls’ nerve gets taken out of them
Anxiety from the US stock market is also spreading over
Next week, watch 65.6K
If it passes, the narrative shifts from waiting to dying to confirmation
If it doesn’t, then 63–65 continues to grind
Which side are you watching?
Stayed up watching until now
Nasdaq is down 1.4% and VIX is jumping 12%
BTC is acting like nothing’s happened—64000 hasn’t moved at all
The AI bubble is fading
Someone wrote an article saying BTC volatility is now even smaller than South Korean stocks
Crazy, but the data really shows that
The Clarity Act has the lowest odds in history of passing
A regulatory vacuum—no one’s managing it
Altcoin SYN rockets 21%
But only this one is moving—an oversold bounce, not a trend
Saturday—most likely it’ll keep dragging on
Nasdaq is down 1.4% and VIX is jumping 12%
BTC is acting like nothing’s happened—64000 hasn’t moved at all
The AI bubble is fading
Someone wrote an article saying BTC volatility is now even smaller than South Korean stocks
Crazy, but the data really shows that
The Clarity Act has the lowest odds in history of passing
A regulatory vacuum—no one’s managing it
Altcoin SYN rockets 21%
But only this one is moving—an oversold bounce, not a trend
Saturday—most likely it’ll keep dragging on
Brush your teeth and then took a look
Citadel put 400 million into Crypto.com at a valuation of 20 billion
A few years ago, Ken Griffin said BTC was worth nothing
Now the biggest market maker is sitting right in it
BTC 63.7K unmoving
ETH 1859 also flat
T Rowe Price issued a multi-crypto ETF
Keyrock is taking over BlockFills
Wall Street has been on the move
Citadel put 400 million into Crypto.com at a valuation of 20 billion
A few years ago, Ken Griffin said BTC was worth nothing
Now the biggest market maker is sitting right in it
BTC 63.7K unmoving
ETH 1859 also flat
T Rowe Price issued a multi-crypto ETF
Keyrock is taking over BlockFills
Wall Street has been on the move
Eyes glued, getting blurry
On the US stock side, NVDA is down more than 2% and QQQ is dragged down too
SPY, though, hasn’t moved much—the Dow is still green
Semiconductors are being sold off, but the index is propping things up
The VIX jumped 4 points—there’s something going on
Two weeks ago, NVDA surged to 236, now it’s at 208
A pullback isn’t surprising
But this kind of drop doesn’t look like a healthy consolidation
Not sure if someone’s been exiting early
Let’s wait for this week’s earnings report
We’ll see
On the US stock side, NVDA is down more than 2% and QQQ is dragged down too
SPY, though, hasn’t moved much—the Dow is still green
Semiconductors are being sold off, but the index is propping things up
The VIX jumped 4 points—there’s something going on
Two weeks ago, NVDA surged to 236, now it’s at 208
A pullback isn’t surprising
But this kind of drop doesn’t look like a healthy consolidation
Not sure if someone’s been exiting early
Let’s wait for this week’s earnings report
We’ll see
Glanced at the data on the chain—almost jumped off the chair.
That batch of BTC at the top in 2017
A wallet that’s been quiet for 9 years
Transferred 383 million today
That same day, DTCC pushed tokenized securities into live trading
Wall Street finally stops writing PPTs
ETH ETF funds are flowing back
Almost all of it is BlackRock
People were still criticizing GBTC before
Bitcoin at $64K swayed
The dollar weakened—QQQ turned around too
Something is moving on-chain; institutions are coming in
The price doesn’t move
Weird
That batch of BTC at the top in 2017
A wallet that’s been quiet for 9 years
Transferred 383 million today
That same day, DTCC pushed tokenized securities into live trading
Wall Street finally stops writing PPTs
ETH ETF funds are flowing back
Almost all of it is BlackRock
People were still criticizing GBTC before
Bitcoin at $64K swayed
The dollar weakened—QQQ turned around too
Something is moving on-chain; institutions are coming in
The price doesn’t move
Weird
Finished brushing my teeth and glanced over
Ostium got stolen and was hit again by an 18M oracle attack
BTC is still stuck at 64.6K, grinding but not moving
DeFi gets stolen every day, and the market has no reaction
I'm numb
Ostium got stolen and was hit again by an 18M oracle attack
BTC is still stuck at 64.6K, grinding but not moving
DeFi gets stolen every day, and the market has no reaction
I'm numb
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