AnMik1964
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AnMik1964
60 років. Пенсіонер.
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The $5b Strategy BTC overhang is overstated. The figure adds a reserve bucket, the then-current $1.76b annual cash bill and two optional buyback authorizations... the bill can change and the program can be suspended. Strategy held $3.75b in USD on July 26, enough for about 2.1 years of then-current preferred dividends and interest. During July 20-26 it added $525m to that reserve from MSTR ATM proceeds and spent $25m buying back STRC. Repeated BTC sales alongside falling reserve coverage would create structural supply. Until that happens, the $5b overhang remains a weak BTC bear case.
Yen intervention now leans bearish for BTC because both ends of the squeeze are crowded. As of July 28, noncommercial CME yen futures were net short 163,412 contracts, roughly ¥2t at face value, and shorts grew that week. On July 31, the August CME Bitcoin future settled 3.0% lower at $63,130 while standard OI rose 2.3% and micro OI rose 12.5%. U.S. spot ETFs shed $265.4m that day, leaving two-session flow at negative $32.3m. A yen squeeze can hit a leveraged BTC market with little spot-flow cushion and force more selling.
Coldcard's third wave warrants a fatter risk discount on single-vendor self-custody. Galaxy Research's rounded estimate has reached 1,367 BTC from 4,585 addresses across three waves... wave three took about 208 BTC from 1,912 addresses. An attacker can reconstruct candidate seeds offline once device and timing state are sufficiently constrained, without contacting the victim device. The same faulty RNG fed other Coldcard secrets too, so mapped wallet sweeps leave a wider potential crypto-loss tail.
US yen support is a weak BTC and ETH bull case so far. Across the July 29 to July 31 closes, the yen strengthened and the broad dollar softened, yet crypto weakened while rates moved against the instant-liquidity chain. Friday sharpened the mismatch: the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and Nasdaq gained 1% while crypto stayed soft. The mismatched close and rate clocks keep causality loose, but the observed transmission is still lousy. BTC and ETH remain exposed to relative weakness even beside a softer dollar and firm US equities.
CLARITY still doesn't deserve a broad crypto-policy bid. The bipartisan ethics approach has been finalized, but its details aren't public and it still needs White House approval, wider Democratic support and a 60-vote Senate coalition. Polymarket's year-end contract also needs both chambers to pass H.R. 3633 and the president to sign it. Section 10404 bars interest-like payments solely for holding stablecoins but permits bona fide activity rewards. A weekend ethics deal can fade across crypto, while COIN and stablecoin-linked equities can move on the rewards wording alone.
What will happen to cryptocurrency market liquidity if the CLARITY Act is not passed this year?
*TLDR: If the CLARITY Act is not passed or fails this year, cryptocurrency liquidity will likely stagnate in the US and continue to move overseas rather than collapse entirely.
*Liquidity in US markets remains “stuck in 2024 mode,” with no significant increase in volume in US regulated markets and some gradual erosion.
*More spot and derivatives trading volume is migrating to non-US venues with clearer rules, fragmenting liquidity and widening spreads on key US dollar pairs.
*Institutional and stablecoin liquidity are growing more slowly and have a higher regulatory risk premium, which supports higher volatility and funding costs compared to a “pass-through-CLARITY” world.
*TLDR: If the CLARITY Act is not passed or fails this year, cryptocurrency liquidity will likely stagnate in the US and continue to move overseas rather than collapse entirely.
*Liquidity in US markets remains “stuck in 2024 mode,” with no significant increase in volume in US regulated markets and some gradual erosion.
*More spot and derivatives trading volume is migrating to non-US venues with clearer rules, fragmenting liquidity and widening spreads on key US dollar pairs.
*Institutional and stablecoin liquidity are growing more slowly and have a higher regulatory risk premium, which supports higher volatility and funding costs compared to a “pass-through-CLARITY” world.
Latest news:
*JPMorgan says crypto bill delay is a real risk.
On July 30, JPMorgan warned that the declining chances of the CLARITY Act passing are a drag on crypto markets, with Polymarket pricing at just 28% at year-end. The bank said the delays risked tokenization profits flowing into existing financial infrastructure rather than public crypto networks.
Two provisions in the current draft could also hinder institutional participation.
*Samsung to build stablecoin and AI-powered payments infrastructure.
On July 30, Samsung SDS confirmed that it is in active talks with Upbit operator Dunamu to create a joint stablecoin and AI payments infrastructure. CEO Lee Jun-hee said that comprehensive testing of stablecoins has been completed.
The move comes after Samsung Electronics separately added stablecoin support to Samsung Wallet.
*U.S. perpetual futures traders could face an unexpected tax bill.
CME CEO Terry Duffy warned on July 30 that traders claiming Section 1256 tax treatment for perpetual futures could face an IRS audit if courts find the contracts are swaps, not futures.
Swaps are taxed as ordinary income, not at the favorable 60/40 capital gains rate. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has not issued any clarification on the matter.
*A Bitcoin miner just sold BTC to fund a campus AI deal.
On July 30, Hyperscale Data sold approximately 100 BTC and opened a bitcoin-backed credit line to finance the construction of an AI data center in Michigan.
The contract could bring in over $3 billion if expanded and extended to its maximum term. The company still owns over 1,000 BTC after the sale.
*Fake betting site just stole millions in XRP.
On July 30, Seoul police announced that fraudsters operated a fake betting site, Flare Network, for just eight days in October 2025, stealing 3.4 million XRP from 71 investors.
The group posted false content on blogs and Wikipedia to appear legitimate. Three of the four suspects are currently in custody.
*JPMorgan says crypto bill delay is a real risk.
On July 30, JPMorgan warned that the declining chances of the CLARITY Act passing are a drag on crypto markets, with Polymarket pricing at just 28% at year-end. The bank said the delays risked tokenization profits flowing into existing financial infrastructure rather than public crypto networks.
Two provisions in the current draft could also hinder institutional participation.
*Samsung to build stablecoin and AI-powered payments infrastructure.
On July 30, Samsung SDS confirmed that it is in active talks with Upbit operator Dunamu to create a joint stablecoin and AI payments infrastructure. CEO Lee Jun-hee said that comprehensive testing of stablecoins has been completed.
The move comes after Samsung Electronics separately added stablecoin support to Samsung Wallet.
*U.S. perpetual futures traders could face an unexpected tax bill.
CME CEO Terry Duffy warned on July 30 that traders claiming Section 1256 tax treatment for perpetual futures could face an IRS audit if courts find the contracts are swaps, not futures.
Swaps are taxed as ordinary income, not at the favorable 60/40 capital gains rate. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has not issued any clarification on the matter.
*A Bitcoin miner just sold BTC to fund a campus AI deal.
On July 30, Hyperscale Data sold approximately 100 BTC and opened a bitcoin-backed credit line to finance the construction of an AI data center in Michigan.
The contract could bring in over $3 billion if expanded and extended to its maximum term. The company still owns over 1,000 BTC after the sale.
*Fake betting site just stole millions in XRP.
On July 30, Seoul police announced that fraudsters operated a fake betting site, Flare Network, for just eight days in October 2025, stealing 3.4 million XRP from 71 investors.
The group posted false content on blogs and Wikipedia to appear legitimate. Three of the four suspects are currently in custody.
July 31, 2026
Fear and Greed are at $36K this morning, while BTC is at $64K. Bitcoin has held steady overnight after yesterday’s Fed-induced drop, consolidating in a narrow range as traders consider the hawkish protest and assess what’s next.
Today, the last day of July, the month ends at about the same level as BTC after a few tumultuous weeks. The regulatory and security stories that end the month are of real importance to everyone in this market. With a cryptocurrency fraud ring in the news, U.S. perpetual futures facing an unexpected tax risk, and Samsung just announced its intentions in digital finance.
Fear and Greed are at $36K this morning, while BTC is at $64K. Bitcoin has held steady overnight after yesterday’s Fed-induced drop, consolidating in a narrow range as traders consider the hawkish protest and assess what’s next.
Today, the last day of July, the month ends at about the same level as BTC after a few tumultuous weeks. The regulatory and security stories that end the month are of real importance to everyone in this market. With a cryptocurrency fraud ring in the news, U.S. perpetual futures facing an unexpected tax risk, and Samsung just announced its intentions in digital finance.
What does record low Bitcoin spot trading volume signal about where the market is in the current cycle?
*TLDR: Record low Bitcoin spot trading volume typically signals a late “bored” stage in the cycle, when conviction is low and the next stage depends on new catalysts.
*This often reflects apathy after previous volatility, typical of the end of a bear or mid-cycle consolidation, rather than a euphoric peak.
*With low spot liquidity, the price becomes more sensitive to large orders, ETF and derivative flows, so changes can look exaggerated compared to the actual underlying demand.
*“Record low exchange spot” can also mean that trading has shifted to ETFs, derivatives and OTC venues, so you need to read this in conjunction with those venues before concluding that interest in Bitcoin has died down.
*TLDR: Record low Bitcoin spot trading volume typically signals a late “bored” stage in the cycle, when conviction is low and the next stage depends on new catalysts.
*This often reflects apathy after previous volatility, typical of the end of a bear or mid-cycle consolidation, rather than a euphoric peak.
*With low spot liquidity, the price becomes more sensitive to large orders, ETF and derivative flows, so changes can look exaggerated compared to the actual underlying demand.
*“Record low exchange spot” can also mean that trading has shifted to ETFs, derivatives and OTC venues, so you need to read this in conjunction with those venues before concluding that interest in Bitcoin has died down.
July 30, 2026
The Fear and Greed Index is up 37 points and BTC is trading at $64.5k this morning. Bitcoin fell to $63.9k yesterday after the Fed kept rates on hold but three regional bank presidents voted for an immediate hike, the strongest dissent of Chairman Kevin Warsh’s tenure. Prices recovered somewhat overnight but remain under pressure.
The rate hike without easing the outlook maintains a macroeconomic ceiling for cryptocurrencies. July is also the quietest trading month for Bitcoin since late 2023, leaving the market in a volatile position heading into August.
The Fear and Greed Index is up 37 points and BTC is trading at $64.5k this morning. Bitcoin fell to $63.9k yesterday after the Fed kept rates on hold but three regional bank presidents voted for an immediate hike, the strongest dissent of Chairman Kevin Warsh’s tenure. Prices recovered somewhat overnight but remain under pressure.
The rate hike without easing the outlook maintains a macroeconomic ceiling for cryptocurrencies. July is also the quietest trading month for Bitcoin since late 2023, leaving the market in a volatile position heading into August.
Does the launch of Morgan Stanley ETH and SOL ETFs signal that altcoins are entering a new institutional phase?
*TLDR: Yes, it signals a new institutional phase for leading altcoins, but it’s focused on blue chips like ETH and SOL, not the entire altcoin market.
*Morgan Stanley’s ETH and SOL ETFs put blue chips with proof-of-stake on the ETF shelf of a major US bank with low fees and staking, normalizing exposure away from BTC.
*The pricing of these ETFs at 0.14 percent and exceeding staking fee requirements shows that crypto ETFs are entering a “commodity” phase, where large managers compete with each other on fees, structure, and distribution.
*This move benefits mostly ETH and SOL, as well as a small group of large-cap companies; broader altcoins still face stricter restrictions on risk, liquidity, and regulation before seeing similar institutional products.
*TLDR: Yes, it signals a new institutional phase for leading altcoins, but it’s focused on blue chips like ETH and SOL, not the entire altcoin market.
*Morgan Stanley’s ETH and SOL ETFs put blue chips with proof-of-stake on the ETF shelf of a major US bank with low fees and staking, normalizing exposure away from BTC.
*The pricing of these ETFs at 0.14 percent and exceeding staking fee requirements shows that crypto ETFs are entering a “commodity” phase, where large managers compete with each other on fees, structure, and distribution.
*This move benefits mostly ETH and SOL, as well as a small group of large-cap companies; broader altcoins still face stricter restrictions on risk, liquidity, and regulation before seeing similar institutional products.
Breaking news:
*AI model just revealed a candidate for post-quantum encryption.
On July 28, Anthropic announced that its Claude Mythos Preview model discovered a weakness in HAWK, a digital signature scheme in NIST’s post-quantum cryptographic assessment, in about 60 hours.
The model also created an improved attack on a shortened version of AES. None of the results affect any systems currently in production.
*Zcash just permanently seals pool with four-year bug
On July 28, Zcash activated its Ironwood update, permanently closing its Orchard protected pool after discovering a counterfeiting vulnerability that had existed since 2022.
The turnstile rule prevents any potentially counterfeit coins from leaving. The backup pool was launched with no coins and two safeguards that Orchard never had.
*Russia Just Published Its First Detailed Cryptocurrency Exchange Rules
On July 28, Russia’s central bank published draft regulations governing cryptocurrency exchanges and a new class of digital depositories, following parliament’s approval of the bill last week.
Depositories that provide post-trade settlements must hold approximately $2.8 million in liquid capital. The full framework takes effect in September 2026.
*Zcash miner just cut its production costs by nearly half.
On July 28, Fortitude launched a new 12-megawatt facility in Nebraska, its first self-built mining site, aiming to reduce ZEC’s direct production costs from about $70 to $40 per coin.
The site is located between two solar arrays next to a substation with excess capacity, allowing it to participate in demand response.
*Morgan Stanley Just Launched Ethereum and Solana ETFs
On July 28, Morgan Stanley listed Ethereum and Solana spot ETFs on the NYSE Arca exchange under the ticker symbols MSSE and MSOL, with an annual fee of 0.14%, which is lower than Grayscale’s Mini Ethereum Trust and Franklin Templeton’s Solana ETF.
Both funds pass staking rewards directly to investors. Morgan Stanley now manages over $14 billion in crypto ETP assets.
$ETH , $SOL , $ZEC .
*AI model just revealed a candidate for post-quantum encryption.
On July 28, Anthropic announced that its Claude Mythos Preview model discovered a weakness in HAWK, a digital signature scheme in NIST’s post-quantum cryptographic assessment, in about 60 hours.
The model also created an improved attack on a shortened version of AES. None of the results affect any systems currently in production.
*Zcash just permanently seals pool with four-year bug
On July 28, Zcash activated its Ironwood update, permanently closing its Orchard protected pool after discovering a counterfeiting vulnerability that had existed since 2022.
The turnstile rule prevents any potentially counterfeit coins from leaving. The backup pool was launched with no coins and two safeguards that Orchard never had.
*Russia Just Published Its First Detailed Cryptocurrency Exchange Rules
On July 28, Russia’s central bank published draft regulations governing cryptocurrency exchanges and a new class of digital depositories, following parliament’s approval of the bill last week.
Depositories that provide post-trade settlements must hold approximately $2.8 million in liquid capital. The full framework takes effect in September 2026.
*Zcash miner just cut its production costs by nearly half.
On July 28, Fortitude launched a new 12-megawatt facility in Nebraska, its first self-built mining site, aiming to reduce ZEC’s direct production costs from about $70 to $40 per coin.
The site is located between two solar arrays next to a substation with excess capacity, allowing it to participate in demand response.
*Morgan Stanley Just Launched Ethereum and Solana ETFs
On July 28, Morgan Stanley listed Ethereum and Solana spot ETFs on the NYSE Arca exchange under the ticker symbols MSSE and MSOL, with an annual fee of 0.14%, which is lower than Grayscale’s Mini Ethereum Trust and Franklin Templeton’s Solana ETF.
Both funds pass staking rewards directly to investors. Morgan Stanley now manages over $14 billion in crypto ETP assets.
$ETH , $SOL , $ZEC .
July 29, 2026
This morning, the Fear and Greed Index is at 36 points (Fear) and BTC is at $64k. Bitcoin has been little changed since yesterday’s pullback, trading in a narrow range as today’s Fed rate decision at 2:00 PM ET grabs the market’s attention.
Today, Fed day traders have positioned themselves for the week. While everyone is watching for the rate announcement, yesterday’s product launches and protocol updates are changing the face of crypto under the hood. A major Wall Street firm just entered the altcoin ETF market. An AI model cracked a candidate for post-quantum encryption. And Zcash has permanently sealed a pool containing a four-year-old vulnerability to counterfeiting.
This morning, the Fear and Greed Index is at 36 points (Fear) and BTC is at $64k. Bitcoin has been little changed since yesterday’s pullback, trading in a narrow range as today’s Fed rate decision at 2:00 PM ET grabs the market’s attention.
Today, Fed day traders have positioned themselves for the week. While everyone is watching for the rate announcement, yesterday’s product launches and protocol updates are changing the face of crypto under the hood. A major Wall Street firm just entered the altcoin ETF market. An AI model cracked a candidate for post-quantum encryption. And Zcash has permanently sealed a pool containing a four-year-old vulnerability to counterfeiting.
A hawkish hold keeps BTC's downside skew alive tomorrow. Polymarket puts roughly three-in-four odds on no change and one-in-four on a quarter-point hike. A hold still preserves tightening optionality, so front-end rates can rise anyway. BTC sat near $63.9k late July 28, close to its seven-day low, while the weakness also coincided with South Korea's equity rout and the Senate shelving the Crypto Clarity Act. If short rates climb after the decision, the first BTC bounce is liable to get sold and downside stays favored.
How is Shariah certification changing the market for tokenized gold products?
*TLDR: Shariah certification makes tokenized gold investable for Islamic finance participants, opening up new pools of capital and reliable distribution channels that are largely closed to non-certified products.
*Attracts Shariah-sensitive retailers and institutions in Muslim-majority markets, adding a large new pool of demand that would otherwise avoid traditional tokenized gold.
*Enables listing and distribution through Islamic banks, brokers, and wealth management platforms that require certified assets, expanding distribution channels and enabling products such as Shariah-compliant savings or sukuk-style wrappers.
*Reduces religious compliance and reputational risks for issuers and investors by increasing trust, typical ticket sizes, and holding periods compared to uncertified structures that remain “on the edge” under Islamic law.
*TLDR: Shariah certification makes tokenized gold investable for Islamic finance participants, opening up new pools of capital and reliable distribution channels that are largely closed to non-certified products.
*Attracts Shariah-sensitive retailers and institutions in Muslim-majority markets, adding a large new pool of demand that would otherwise avoid traditional tokenized gold.
*Enables listing and distribution through Islamic banks, brokers, and wealth management platforms that require certified assets, expanding distribution channels and enabling products such as Shariah-compliant savings or sukuk-style wrappers.
*Reduces religious compliance and reputational risks for issuers and investors by increasing trust, typical ticket sizes, and holding periods compared to uncertified structures that remain “on the edge” under Islamic law.
July 28, 2026
The Fear and Greed Index is at 34 points (Fear) and Bitcoin is at $63k. Bitcoin is down about 3% overnight, giving up gains made earlier in the week as traders cut risks ahead of tomorrow’s Fed rate decision, which now carries more weight than any macroeconomic event this month.
The pullback is technical, not structural. The price is building new regulated infrastructure in multiple directions at once, from Islamic-compliant digital gold to Bitcoin-backed bonds to a sports giant buying its own betting exchange.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 34 points (Fear) and Bitcoin is at $63k. Bitcoin is down about 3% overnight, giving up gains made earlier in the week as traders cut risks ahead of tomorrow’s Fed rate decision, which now carries more weight than any macroeconomic event this month.
The pullback is technical, not structural. The price is building new regulated infrastructure in multiple directions at once, from Islamic-compliant digital gold to Bitcoin-backed bonds to a sports giant buying its own betting exchange.
BTC is the weaker Fed trade... ETH has the better setup through Thursday's macro follow-through. Glassnode maps recent-buyer cost basis near $69k overhead and demand around $63k, so BTC is boxed between supply and support. US spot Ether ETFs took in $103.8m from July 20-24, ~3x Bitcoin's weekly net, while short-dated ETH ATM vol sat near 40% vs BTC just above 30%. A firm PCE or GDP print Thursday can revive September tightening odds after any Fed relief, leaving ETH better sponsored and BTC rallies into $69k vulnerable to supply.
BTC heads into Wednesday's Fed decision with both sides liable to get clipped. I see traders pricing a 33% hike chance while Citigroup reportedly expects a hold, so the first candle is a lousy place to find conviction.
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